Post: #1

This is specific to the market for the year 2014. Much like the 2013 thread

Do we continue hitting new highs? I dont see any bad news stopping this bull. How will bitcoin play a factor? 2014 looking like status quo

Post: #2

Interested in getting into penny stocks next year or in stocks I can invest in for under $5 a share. Willing to buy up to 200 shares a month ($1000 give or take) but total newb at stock trading and looking for some starter advice, A penny for your thoughts gents..

Post: #3

@ CHYAMOR.

I was waiting for you to create the stock market 2014 thread. It is only fitting that you should be the one to create it. Afterall, you created the 2013 one. How was your trading year?

I am in agreement with you. I think it will be a bullish year... not as intense as 2013...but overall, bullish. I also think that 2014 will be a decisive year for bitcoin. Will the bankers/politicians out-regulate it into the black market, or will bitcoin get legitimized by them(bankers/politicians)?

I think year 2014 will determine the fate of bitcoin.

@ Mr. 2014.

you want to get into stocks?

On penny stocks, i will send you a PM. I cannot strongly recommend against it enough. Anyways, i will send you a PM about trading penny stocks aka nanocaps/microcaps.

With regards to learning about microcaps, macrocaps, smallcaps, midcaps, largecaps, and megacaps, stocks in general. First, i will recommend reading the cautionary tales by defguy. Then, i will also recommend you start with this list(i have tried a compilations of resources for trading the stock market in this post below.)

(09-24-2013 11:29 AM)Nemencine Wrote:  Anyways, i will try and provide some links here...these are far from comprehensive...but it should get anybody going. Some of the sites are multi-functional: You can search for news and also do stocks screens and also do dividend search, etc...

Preliminary stocks education:
http://www.informedtrades.com/f114/
http://www.investopedia.com/?viewed=1

(preferably, get some of these books...start reading from level 1)

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS/CHARTS:
http://www.freestockcharts.com
http://www.bigcharts.com
http://www.barchart.com
http://www.stockcharts.com
http://www.stockta.com/
http://thepatternsite.com/studies.html
http://www.chartpatterns.com

CANDLESTICKS:
http://www.candlesticker.com

COMPANY'S FINANCIALS/FUNDAMENTALS/SEC FILINGS:
http://www.financials.morningstar.com
http://www.portfolio123.com
http://www.10kwizard.com/main.php
http://www.secform4.com/sec-filings.htm
http://www.secfilings.com/
http://www.hoovers.com
http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks
http://www.smartmoney.com
(All the fundamental links you will need you will find it in APPENDIX A of harry domash "fire your stock analyst" book. That list is exhaustive.)

EARNINGS/EARNING CALENDER:
http://www.rttnews.com/Calendar/Earnings.aspx
http://www.earningswhispers.com/calendar.asp

CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY NEWS/RECORDS SEARCH/ DOCUMENTS SEARCH:
http://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/bankrupt.htm
http://www.coordinatedlegal.com/SecretaryOfState.html

DIVIDENDS:
http://www.dividenddetective.com/

STOCK SEARCH/SCREENER:
http://www.stockhouse.com/Portfolio/Stock-Screener
http://financials.morningstar.com
http://www.portfolio123.com
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/most-active.aspx
https://usequities.nyx.com/markets/nyse-mkt-equities

SHORT LIST/SHORT SQUEEZE:
http://www.finra.org/
http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/aspx/regsho.aspx
http://www.highshortinterest.com/all/
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/

LOW FLOAT STOCKS:
http://www.lowfloat.com/

LEVEL 2 VIDEO:
http://stockhideout.com/images/flash/level.html

BUSINESS NEWS/PRESS RELEASES:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/
http://news.google.com/?ned=us&topic=b
http://home.businesswire.com
http://www.bloomberg.com
http://www.reuters.com
http://www.financialtimes.com
http://www.wsj.com
http://www.investors.com
http://online.barrons.com/public/main

WORLD NEWS AGGREGRATE:
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/h/World+News

BIOTECH/CLINICAL TRIAL NEWS:
http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/
http://www.biomedreports.com/
http://biohealthinvestor.com/
http://www.biospace.com
http://www.eyeonfda.com/

STOCK MARKET HOLIDAY:
http://www.allstocks.com/html/stock_mark...idays.html

anyways, this list should cover a few bases.... I clearly didnt include anything on the bond market, commodity futures, forex or any global macro stuff....the list above is just for stocks(and i have tried to avoid resource links to penny stocks.)...anyways, hopefully, people find these useful......

Post: #4

I'm curious if any of the stock trading people on this forum have beat the returns of some of the Vanguard funds. I primarily use VTSMX and I am quite pleased with the returns.

I do enjoy learning about the financial markets but I don't see how anyone can beat the returns of an index fund after considering the cost per trade.

I'm not trying to hate on this thread, I'm just trying to see if anyone made more money by actively trading compared to being lazy and making over 20%.

Post: #5

(12-27-2013 12:00 AM)obrero Wrote:  I'm curious if any of the stock trading people on this forum have beat the returns of some of the Vanguard funds.

dont know. cannot speak for others. i made +44.5% this year. I am happy.

(12-27-2013 12:00 AM)obrero Wrote:  I primarily use VTSMX and I am quite pleased with the returns.

Good for you. i am also pleased with my returns. i guess we are both pleased with our returns.

(12-27-2013 12:00 AM)obrero Wrote:  I do enjoy learning about the financial markets but I don't see how anyone can beat the returns of an index fund after considering the cost per trade.

If you say so, sir.

(12-27-2013 12:00 AM)obrero Wrote:  I'm not trying to hate on this thread,....

Ok.

(12-27-2013 12:00 AM)obrero Wrote:  I'm just trying to see if anyone made more money by actively trading compared to being lazy and making over 20%.

#1. Why do you care? If you lazily makes over 20%, good for you. If you want to recommend investment funds that you think will benefit others, simply recommend them(steve9, jayjuangee and dude3737 and many others have done this in the past.)
#2. Trading versus Investment argument is as immaterial as hardwork vs talent or game vs money or any other dichotomous stuff i have seen on rvf.
#3. We have an excellent thread on investment here: investment thread by westcoast. Feel free to peruse it.

Post: #6

(12-27-2013 02:29 AM)Nemencine Wrote:  

(12-27-2013 12:00 AM)obrero Wrote:  I'm just trying to see if anyone made more money by actively trading compared to being lazy and making over 20%.

#1. Why do you care? If you lazily makes over 20%, good for you. If you want to recommend investment funds that you think will benefit others, simply recommend them(steve9, jayjuangee and dude3737 and many others have done this in the past.)
#2. Trading versus Investment argument is as immaterial as hardwork vs talent or game vs money or any other dichotomous stuff i have seen on rvf.
#3. We have an excellent thread on investment here: investment thread by westcoast. Feel free to peruse it.

It is funny that the 2013 and 2014 threads are kind of overlapping, and I have NOT yet figured out my results for 2013 - though I was considering posting those results on the 2013 thread, once I figure it out.

Personally, I am NOT much of a trader b/c mostly I have been a dollar cost averager on various index funds, but recently, I have been looking into more of the trading possibilities... but I am NOT in a rush to learn too quickly, b/c I do NOT want to lose my ass.

Oh, yeah, Nemencine, I also got into some trouble on the Health Juicing thread b/c I was talking about blending.. .which got me into shit... even though i thought that blending was relevant to the juicing discussion that was going on.

So don't ask me if I am investing or trading b/c I do NOT seem to know the difference, even though I will try to figure it out, soon.

Post: #7

I think a good question is whether the returns of index funds be beat over 10 years or more after considering the fees of actively managed funds and trading fees. At least for the average investor (which is what I am).

Post: #8

Im surprised target isnt getting its ass handed to it with this CC issue. Hardly a dent in the stock past 2 weeks

Post: #9

(12-27-2013 03:38 PM)chyamor Wrote:  Im surprised target isnt getting its ass handed to it with this CC issue. Hardly a dent in the stock past 2 weeks

I was surprised too, not that I think it would affect their numbers but that there would be a speculated loss and subsequent sell-off.

I'm somewhere above "slightly lazy" and am up 37% in '13. Half my investments are in Vanguard funds the other half in common stocks. I'm a pretty defensive investor and would not risk more activity for that extra 7%, but I have major respect for guys that put in the legwork to attain those numbers.

Right off the bat in '14 I'm buying into metal mining companies while they're at these historic lows. Besides that just going to dollar cost average into my usual mix of telecom/tech, energy, and healthcare.

Post: #10

Any chance of SIRI doing a P ?

Post: #11

(12-27-2013 03:53 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  

(12-27-2013 03:38 PM)chyamor Wrote:  Im surprised target isnt getting its ass handed to it with this CC issue. Hardly a dent in the stock past 2 weeks

I was surprised too, not that I think it would affect their numbers but that there would be a speculated loss and subsequent sell-off.....

Perhaps, it is the santa claus rally effect: Historically, the stocks market tends to rally during the month of december. It is a plurality. Here is a quick historical tabulation:

(12-27-2013 03:53 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  .....
I'm somewhere above "slightly lazy" and am up 37% in '13. Half my investments are in Vanguard funds the other half in common stocks.

Good job, you sonofabitch. Excellent work.

(12-27-2013 03:53 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  ....I'm a pretty defensive investor and would not risk more activity for that extra 7%, but I have major respect for guys that put in the legwork to attain those numbers.

Thanks. It is a cost/benefit analysis of your time, etc. the extra effort versus the return. All based on individual preferences. Anyways, despite the fact that i am happy with my 44.5%... i make sure to really tell myself an old trading adage: never confuse brains with a bull market. We are in a bull market that started in 2009....i have the sense that it will continue in 2014(although, not at the same strength as 2013). My instinct says: i should expect 2014 to be more challenging. We will see.

(12-27-2013 03:53 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  ....Right off the bat in '14 I'm buying into metal mining companies while they're at these historic lows. Besides that just going to dollar cost average into my usual mix of telecom/tech, energy, and healthcare.

For me, i wont get a clear picture until late january to early february after i have sorted out my sector rotation strategy/commodity cycles. I need to worked that out. That will predisposed me to what sector/industry to get into. Because, you really dont want to buy into the wrong sector at the wrong time. I am sure Westcoast can teach a master class on this. To give an idea of what i mean by sector rotation strategies, here is a nice primer on the topic from Fidelity's.

To give you a very quick, visual idea of what i mean, i have included a couple of images below( of course, sector rotation strategies are guidelines, not completely etched in stone.)

As you can see from these images, based on what phase of the stock market we are in... certain sectors have the highest probability of yielding the greatest results. There are statistical studies done. It then boils down to (a) determining the right phase of the stock market (b)choosing the best stocks/vanguard funds/ETFs within the best sector. Anyways, the images paint a clearer picture:

image #1:


IMAGE # 2:


IMAGE #3


IMAGE #4




I hope that was helpful in explaining my thought process. Of course, there are overlaps .

regards,

Nemencine

Post: #12

^^^^^

Post: #13

At the risk of sounding retarded, I buy shit that I see a lot of young people using in large quantities. I told my dad to buy Chipotle back when it just split for MCD. I saw how bonkers HS kids would go for it.

Monitor what the adoloscents/early adults use because very often they are early adopters.

Post: #14

(12-27-2013 05:54 PM)DVY Wrote:  At the risk of sounding retarded, I buy shit that I see a lot of young people using in large quantities. I told my dad to buy Chipotle back when it just split for MCD. I saw how bonkers HS kids would go for it.

Monitor what the adoloscents/early adults use because very often they are early adopters.

There's nothing wrong with common sense logic but it's important to evaluate how a company operates. Anyone can look at Store X and see the line out the door and think, "Hmmm, time to buy in." It's important to build a complete picture of the company before buying in; looking at their balance sheet, what % of shares are owned by the board, acquisition history, EPS history, etc. Not just a matter of capital coming in but how the company manages it.

Post: #15

(12-27-2013 05:17 PM)Nemencine Wrote:  For me, i wont get a clear picture until late january to early february after i have sorted out my sector rotation strategy/commodity cycles. I need to worked that out. That will predisposed me to what sector/industry to get into. Because, you really dont want to buy into the wrong sector at the wrong time.

Nemencine, are you also looking at country rotation, since the US market is no longer cheap?

I am mulling over investing more into China in 2014. I already own Baidu.com (the Google of China) and Sina.com (their micro-blogging site Weibo is the Twitter of China) and BHP Billiton (indirect China play).

To make it simpler i am looking at the China ETFs. I like CHIQ (Global X China Consumer ETF) better than the FXI (which is too top heavy in state owned enterprises).

Post: #16

following up on the CC target, any reason why US isnt on chip? might be a good long term investment on guys who make devices. Replacing every magnetic swipe to chip should be a pretty penny.

Post: #17

I'll use this thread to open a discussion on Sysco, since some of you guys may be interesting to open a position.

Sysco is a large scale food distributor. https://www.google.com/finance?q=sysco&e...G--bsgfXCg

They're very well known in the restaurant world. They are the largest food distributor in the United States.

Over the past 10 years I've seen them swallow all of their competitors. Around 2006 they bought Superior Foods (Previously owned by Pocahantas. In 2011 they bought Goldberg and Sullovy. ANd now U.S. Foods. In doing so, they have amassed new debt, experienced integration problems, assumed worse margins, and increased their debt/equity percentage. There's a fair analysis here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1913581-...y-position

If it weren't for their debt/equity percentage, they would pass my standards across the boards in terms of price, p/e ratio, market cap, and dividend yield.

However, all that said, I can say with utmost certainty that with the new acquisition of U.S. Foods, Sysco now holds a monopoly on food distribution. U.S. Foods was the last man standing in the firing line of Sysco, and now they're done.

Several things may happen, and you may very well see Sysco stock drop, but it should be on your radar as a future investment. Nearly every restaurant in the entire country will now have an account with Sysco and I believe over the next 3 years you'll see Sysco do quite well. The only caveat is their profits depend on timely payments from restaurants. When restaurants don't pay up Sysco's balance sheet takes a massive hit. Sysco issues a 30-day credit to accounts and when those accounts don't pay up, numbers start to look bad. But if Sysco can manage its accounts more aggressively and taper its credit terms, you'll see those profits skyrocket.

I have no personal ties to them except for the fact that I was a former customer of U.S. Foods, so now I'll be buying from Sysco I guess. This isn't meant to be an endorsement, just a little insider information for any interested parties.

Post: #18

(12-27-2013 07:27 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(12-27-2013 05:17 PM)Nemencine Wrote:  For me, i wont get a clear picture until late january to early february after i have sorted out my sector rotation strategy/commodity cycles. I need to worked that out. That will predisposed me to what sector/industry to get into. Because, you really dont want to buy into the wrong sector at the wrong time.

Nemencine, are you also looking at country rotation, since the US market is no longer cheap?

I am mulling over investing more into China in 2014. I already own Baidu.com (the Google of China) and Sina.com (their micro-blogging site Weibo is the Twitter of China) and BHP Billiton (indirect China play).

To make it simpler i am looking at the China ETFs. I like CHIQ (Global X China Consumer ETF) better than the FXI (which is too top heavy in state owned enterprises).

What about Yahoo and Softbank as a play in Alibaba.

Post: #19

Great thread.

I highly recommend you guys check out Eddy Elfenbein. He is a prolific blogger, as well on Twitter. You can found his blog at http://www.crossingwallstreet.com

He sends out a weekly email on his thoughts on the market, stocks, news, etc. Really good info.

He also publishes a yearly buy list. So far, he's outperformed the market for 7 years straight.

Here's his 2013 buy list - http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/buylist (you can see his past performance and past buy lists at the bottom)

He also just announced his 2014 buy list - http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archiv...-2013.html

Hope this information helps everyone out. Really excited about this thread, looking forward to a great 2014!

Edited to add his blog link.

Post: #20

(12-28-2013 12:55 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  What about Yahoo and Softbank as a play in Alibaba.

The Alibaba IPO is going the be huge - it may well be the biggest tech IPO in history. In just one day they did sales of $US5.75 billion! (Singles Day in China)

But I reckon this is already priced into the current Yahoo and Softbank share price. Many investors only own Yahoo for the Alibaba IPO, so there is "sell on the news" risk.

Post: #21

(12-28-2013 09:31 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(12-28-2013 12:55 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  What about Yahoo and Softbank as a play in Alibaba.

The Alibaba IPO is going the be huge - it may well be the biggest tech IPO in history. In just one day they did sales of $US5.75 billion! (Singles Day in China)

But I reckon this is already priced into the current Yahoo and Softbank share price. Many investors only own Yahoo for the Alibaba IPO, so there is "sell on the news" risk.

If Alibaba's IPO keeps being delayed/dragged on, it will only result in Yahoo making more $$$ as Alibaba is growing extremely fast. But then again, other than Yahoo Japan and Alibaba Yahoo doesn't seem that attractive (sorry Tumblr fangirls)

I agree though, Alibaba is going to be HUGE.

Post: #22

Wanted to suggest an excellent stock scanner.

The name is FinViz, you can find it at http://www.finviz.com

Cheers.

Post: #23

(12-27-2013 11:15 PM)thedude3737 Wrote:  I'll use this thread to open a discussion on Sysco, since some of you guys may be interesting to open a position.

If you have to buy a stock now (late stage in the economic cycle) it would be best to buy consumer staples/defensive stocks because a recession is imminent (the only variable is timing it). Sysco would fit the bill in that regard. If you wanted to juice you returns you could buy the stock and write OTM call options against your position for a little more income.

The general consensus is that about 1/3 of a stock's movement is related to the individual company itself, 1/3 to the industry, and the remainder to the overall direction of the stock market.

If you are buying stock--any stock for that matter you would be wise to acknowledge that you are not buying a cheap market. The market was cheap in 2009-2010.

The average duration of a US economic expansion since 1945 has been 59 months. According to the NBER (the people who officially decide the dates of recessions) the US exited our latest recession in June 2009 so we are about 52 months into our current economic expansion by Jan 2014. Also known as the late cycle (end) of an economic expansion. Of course with QE, the business cycle has been destroyed so that is another unknown variable that will impact future stock market and economic performance.

I own tobacco stocks and know that they too will fall if there is a recession and the market falls. However, they should decline much less than the overall market because of their recession proof business model and pricing power.

Post: #24

(12-30-2013 10:59 PM)Flavius Aetius Wrote:  If you have to buy a stock now (late stage in the economic cycle) it would be best to buy consumer staples/defensive stocks because a recession is imminent (the only variable is timing it). Sysco would fit the bill in that regard. If you wanted to juice you returns you could buy the stock and write OTM call options against your position for a little more income.

The general consensus is that about 1/3 of a stock's movement is related to the individual company itself, 1/3 to the industry, and the remainder to the overall direction of the stock market.

If you are buying stock--any stock for that matter you would be wise to acknowledge that you are not buying a cheap market. The market was cheap in 2009-2010.

The average duration of a US economic expansion since 1945 has been 59 months. According to the NBER (the people who officially decide the dates of recessions) the US exited our latest recession in June 2009 so we are about 52 months into our current economic expansion by Jan 2014. Also known as the late cycle (end) of an economic expansion. Of course with QE, the business cycle has been destroyed so that is another unknown variable that will impact future stock market and economic performance.

I own tobacco stocks and know that they too will fall if there is a recession and the market falls. However, they should decline much less than the overall market because of their recession proof business model and pricing power.

I'm not going to buy into Sysco just yet. Not while their P/E ratio is so high. They're about to take on a massive amount of debt which will launch their debt/equity ratio higher than I consider acceptable for an investment.

However, based on what I know about the company and my own industry, I can foresee Sysco nosediving and then making an excellent long term recovery.

Post: #25

(12-30-2013 10:59 PM)Flavius Aetius Wrote:  The average duration of a US economic expansion since 1945 has been 59 months. According to the NBER (the people who officially decide the dates of recessions) the US exited our latest recession in June 2009 so we are about 52 months into our current economic expansion by Jan 2014. Also known as the late cycle (end) of an economic expansion. Of course with QE, the business cycle has been destroyed so that is another unknown variable that will impact future stock market and economic performance.

I do NOT claim to be any expert regarding macro-economics; however, I really have a difficult time agreeing with your prognosis of recession on the horizon... and current economic expansion of 52 months.

In my thinking, we live in strange economic times b/c if a guy uses the stock market as a measure, there is NO real expansion b/c the stock market is barely up from its October 2007 level. There was a drop in October 2007, and towards the beginning of 2013, the stock market returned to its October 2007 levels (in essence, it took more than 5 years to return to the October 2007 levels).

Accordingly, there has been an expansion in stock prices during 2013 - however, other aspects of the economy have NOT been in an expansion mode. Job losses have more or less stabilized, and any return of jobs, have been jobs that pay half the amount that they had paid in 2007... that is NOT really any kind of meaningful expansion b/c previous expansions had seen increases in wages rather than decreases in wages.

Additionally, Banks have been hoarding the QE money that they have been receiving, and almost NONE of that money is being reinvested into anything personal, homes or small businesses - except maybe they are sending that money to China.

There may be a further downfall in America's economy based on other reasons, such as various screwed up financial policies and political stagnation (which seems to have recently smoothed out), but I would NOT project such an economic downfall such as a recession to take place in the next couple of years. Maybe I am missing something?