(02-11-2014 03:19 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Well I'm all in BTC again..For now

I think it will go up 40 dollars today to about 680 or so

Welcome back... ... for the time being.... whether for a day or longer....... t

ON another note: too bad that you had NOT set a buy order two days ago at $300 or something like that... b/c all of those buy orders (above $102) were filled.

They were not all filled who told you that? Anyway I'm going to trade alts with BTC now I just can't get the math in my head right

(02-11-2014 03:31 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  They were not all filled who told you that?

Yesterday, I already wrote out my theory about what happened in my response to Pants, in this post.


In essence, my theory of what happened is that there was a large order for 3 to 4 thousand BTC (whether one order or a multiple of orders) that caused the buy price to quickly go down to $102. Accordingly, all of those outstanding buy orders (between $610 and $102) were fulfilled buy the massive influx of a sell order (or multiple sell orders that came in within a short period).

Let's say for example, I am a big fish (a whale), and I am selling 4k BTC on BTC e. If I want to sell all my BTC as soon as possible, and the current BTC price is $610. If I put in my sell order at that time to sell my 4K of BTC for $2 each, then the system is NOT going to sell my BTC at $2 each, the system is going to give me the best price of the highest outstanding order at the time that my order hits the BTC e system (that's how it works) and then my sell order will be filled from $610 to $2 until from highest outstanding buy order to lowest outstanding buy order. In this particular case all outstanding BTC buy orders were filled down to $102.

Surely, there is some speculation with this description of what had happened, but that is what seemed to have happened when the BTC price flash down to $102 and that flash only lasted for a short period b/c soon other buy orders were going in place to fill the price that was showing on the BTC ticker... which I was online at the time, and all the bars on BTC e went flat at that time.

Do you have another theory of what happened during that flash crash?
Do you think some dumb fuck just mis-typed one order to sell some small quantity of let's say 1 BTC for $102... If he had done that, then the sell order would have sold at $610 or whatever the current and highest outstanding buy order price was. That is how the BTC e system works in the event that a guy types a lower sell number by mistake.... it fills to the highest outstanding buy orders first.

The only reason in this case was different, in my opinion, is that some big fish was trying to get rid of a lot of BTC at once.. and he did NOT care about the price b/c he was trying to camouflage his large sell off in the heat of the moment.. that's my theory... at the moment based on the facts that I know or infer.

EDIT: By the way: Probably, for the sake of making profit, it would have been smarter for the whale to break his sale into smaller increments of 100 to 200 BTC each - but there is NO way in hell he would have been able to accomplish that very quickly and without possibly drawing some suspicion... However, during a time in which there is a lot of market activities (the crash that was already occurring), there would have been a lot of sell orders and a lot of buy orders, so this guy could quickly fulfill the order without drawing as much attention...... and there was already great price fluctuation going on a that moment.... and likely the guy valued the quickness of getting through the transaction more than the BTC price that he got for the 4000 BTC (think of someone like a person who had stolen the BTC or someone at Gox). Anyhow, there are some theories that this dump onto BTC e was an attempt to sabotage BTC - and I do NOT really buy those kinds of sabatoge theories.. NOT at the moment, anyhow... it was NOT a sabotage but a skillfully timed dump by someone who wanted to liquidate quickly... might have even been a form of laundering b/c he may have used the dollars to buy back BTC before he transferred the BTC to some other wallet and cashed out or whatever.

(02-11-2014 03:31 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Anyway I'm going to trade alts with BTC now I just can't get the math in my head right

That's one of the challenges in converting to alts....

Anyone worried about BTC prices/values, yet?

First::::: As I write, we are in the lower $580s on Bitstamp, and in the upper $550s on BTC e. The current price reflects about a 10% drop on today's average prices... or maybe even close to a 15% drop on the highest BTC price of the day and about a 35% drop of the BTC price from about 10 days ago... which was in the lower $800s.

Personally, I am NOT worried yet, and I am continuing to buy... hoping that BTC prices will spring back up. Surely, there is a little bit more of a worry, if the BTC price were to stay at these levels or even go lower. The main problem that seems to always exist is that we do NOT know for sure that the BTC price is going to go lower, even during a "crash" or a "flash crash" as Pants had called it.

Second:::: Any guys watching the news...??? and the latest and greatest news is that supposedly through the devious means of a hacker, all of the Bitcoins (nearly 4474 BTC, valued at about $2.7 million) were stolen off of Silkroad 2 - though I am NOT sure whether the details are confirmed yet, though that seems to be the story of Silkroad 2's administrator.

Any thoughts, guys?

JJG,

From my experience of you, you seem like a real student of whatever you are doing, so I am assuming you are reading quite a bit on bitcoins. I have not paid as much attention lately. But just be careful, I am always a little extra cautious when I invest in things that depend on other people valuing them.

Hope all is well.

(02-13-2014 09:29 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  JJG,

From my experience of you, you seem like a real student of whatever you are doing, so I am assuming you are reading quite a bit on bitcoins. I have not paid as much attention lately. But just be careful, I am always a little extra cautious when I invest in things that depend on other people valuing them.

Hope all is well.

Thanks Sam(3).....

There may be a point, hopefully, where I will NOT be following the BTC prices, as frequently; maybe once the BTC price goes up (above my investment average point), if that ever takes place....

For the time being, my BTC alarms are going off b/c in accordance with my investment plan, I am scheduled to buy BTC while the price is going down.... but of course, I prefer to buy BTC as low as possible... so I remain interested in any researched feedback that RVF guys may have regarding where the BTC price is going.... Frequently, guys here seem to come across different angles...

I understand the situation is different for some RVF guys who are mining BTC and other cryptos.. the dynamics are different and you guys are acquiring your BTC based on mining difficulty of the various cryptos.. .which is a slightly different dynamic as compared with some of us other guys who are involved in the BTC exchanges = trading, speculating and/or investing.

Oh yeah, and if BTC can maintain a certain level of value, then I will be able to use some or all of it in my future travels.. which hopefully are going to begin in earnest this year... I'm sure that having various BTC wallets (so long as they do NOT get hacked) can come in very handy during travel - especially when dealing with various local currencies ---- or even exchanging in and out of the dollar.

In regards to Bitcoin, I can't have so much faith in something that's based on a computer program mining whatever? It's only backed by people's belief that having it will make them rich. That's not a currency, that's a speculative instrument that's prone to bubbles and crashes and bankruptcy.

How well tested is there software and exchanges? Do they really have the IT resources that the financial industry has to ensure the highest quality software and security that's been developing for the past 40+ years? It's looking like they don't and they are flying by the seat of their pants and they haven't done much testing before rolling things out.

(02-13-2014 11:08 PM)Onto Wrote:  In regards to Bitcoin, I can't understand how people can have so much faith in something that's based on a computer program mining whatever? It's only backed by people's belief that having it will make them rich. That's not a currency, that's a speculative instrument that's prone to bubbles and crashes and bankruptcy.

Who pissed in your Cheerios? Just kidding.

I have always had that concern. Which is why I tried to mine, with the possibility of selling gear as a backup in case it didn't work out.

I posted an article a few pages back written by a pretty reputable guy pointing out some of the flaws. But you never know where this will go.

Yeah, I don't mean to piss on anyone else's Cheerios, but I hate to see people get wiped out. I'm certainly not the brightest bulb in the pack with the financial markets, but I just don't see how any of this is going to end well in regards to bitcoin.

It's not regulated, which means it really is the Wild Wild West. Governments don't want it and I can guarantee the Govt will always win. Always.

Yeah you can strike gold with Bitcoin, if your timing is right and you can withdrawal your money too.

It's fine for high-risk speculation, I just wouldn't put more money in than I would if I were going to the casino.

I'm curious, Is there an instrument out there that will let you short Bitcoin?

I keep thinking about the movie "Office Space" where they wrote this slick program that was supposed to steal small amounts of money over time and they would all get rich slowly and quietly.

^"governments dont' want it and I can guarantee the govt will always win."

Wouldn't have too much faith in that assertion. The government can't get rid of torrents and trying to stop them has only increased their popularity. Similarly, you can't "get rid of" btc because it's based on the same architecture as torrent files. Lots of sites are already accepting BTC (including this one) because it cuts out on transaction costs levied by paypal and visa/mastercard. Site save 10s of thousands of dollars a day when they get paid via btc. Believe me that companies are not gonna wanna stop using it anytime soon.

Also 3rd world countries w/o stable currencies will also want to switch to btc as it becomes more stable over time since it's not open to manipulation by machete-wielding killbots.

NPR's Planet Money did an interesting piece on Bitcoin's future. This venture bet's a financial writer on the popularity of Bitcoin in five years.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/02/0...oins-futur

I'm a pessimist when it comes to Bitcoin. With its volatility, I don't see it becoming any type of actual currency.

I don't think hard financial regulation at this moment is necessary. What is necessary, is a bit of adult supervision & smart advice for bitcoin's key players. That's clear. If you look at BitPay & Coinbase, aided by Andreessen-Horowitz & Peter Thiel, you see quiet, cold calculating professionalism.

The coalition of anarchists & tech-utopia believers just don't get that malicious actors are out there. They're dissing govs, banks, Fed, Jamie Dimon and whatnot, but I'm betting amateurism (like MtGox) & hackers will do a lot more damage to bitcoin-sphere. I'd like to see a little more down-to-earth business men who understand they need to take the gloves off when their business is in trouble, angry tweets won't do.

The hippie libertarians need to go back to Reason forums or obscure meetings.

(02-14-2014 04:04 AM)Ardbeg Wrote:  NPR's Planet Money did an interesting piece on Bitcoin's future. This venture bet's a financial writer on the popularity of Bitcoin in five years.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/02/0...oins-futur

I'm a pessimist when it comes to Bitcoin. With its volatility, I don't see it becoming any type of actual currency.

The reason bitcoin is very volatile at the moment is that it is still not widely used, and when a big money exchangers aka whales make huge transactions, it makes difference. Same as when bad news arrive, many investors sell which is most likely to cause a wave.

When bitcoin becomes more mainstream and more adopted, it will become less and less volatile because the bitcoins are spread more widely and there are more of bitcoins due to mining. Then, the whales or bad news could only cause a small impact on the price.

And in my opinion bitcoin is surprisingly stable now. It has been the worst week for bitcoin in a long time: exchange issues with mt gox, DDoS attack, silkroad 2.0 hacked, somebody selling over 9000 bitcoins for 100$ each... and the price only has dropped by 20-30%. Remember that we are still in the 'early adopters' phase.

I just bought bitcoins with 150$, this is the time to buy but I don't encourage it if you can't handle the risks(everyone should be willing to lose everything -- remember the most important rule for investors: don't invest more than you are willing to lose.)

Bitcoin price will go up. The DDoS attack is soon handled and huge news just popped up:

worlds largest porn company (manwin AKA brazzers AKA pornhub) are accepting bitcoins!. These guys are responsible for:

pornhub.com (20 million visitors to the site a day!)
youporn.com
tube8.com
keezmovies.com
xtube.com
extremetube.com
webcams.com
spankwire.com
brazzers.com network of sites
mofos.com network of sites
twistys.com
mydirtyhobby.com
realitykings.com network of sites
they also run playboys sites, wicked pictures sites etc.


Bitcoin is the golden exchange currency for gambling and porn because it is fast, efficient and almost anonymous.

WHO WOULD BET AGAINST DRUGS, PORN AND GAMBLING INDUSTRY?

(02-13-2014 11:08 PM)Onto Wrote:  In regards to Bitcoin, I can't have so much faith in something that's based on a computer program mining whatever? It's only backed by people's belief that having it will make them rich. That's not a currency, that's a speculative instrument that's prone to bubbles and crashes and bankruptcy.

How can you have faith in fiat currency like USD or Euro? It is not backed up by anything either. We gave up on gold standard over 40 years ago. Fiat currency has lost 99% of its value in 100 years and because the people handling the shit are incompetent keynesian(I cannot believe how people can be keynesian -- havent they read his the general theory? I have and it is RIDICULOUS.) bankers and government officials who has very little sense what they are doing and are mostly interest in providing an illusion of prosperity instead of real growth, that's keynesian economics for you. They are pushing more and more money through printers and manipulating interest rates which is causing inflation. Would you rather have currency which is increasing its value rather than something which loses ten percent of its value every decade?

People think the fed or banks actually know what they are doing. Banks are corrupt as fuck. Just google how many banking frauds there are everywhere in the world almost all the time. HSBC in US just got caught in money laundering. They are fucking criminals, yeah I said it, but because they have so much power, they are 'too big to fail' and when the shit hits the fan, the fed will just bail them out.

Bitcoin is by the people, for the people. Open source is the new way of life. The fact that nobody is ruining it through arbitrary actions which can be fatal and just plain wrong -- is the good thing about it.

(02-13-2014 11:08 PM)Onto Wrote:  How well tested is there software and exchanges? Do they really have the IT resources that the financial industry has to ensure the highest quality software and security that's been developing for the past 40+ years? It's looking like they don't and they are flying by the seat of their pants and they haven't done much testing before rolling things out.

Bitcoin has been living for 4 years now and I have heard many very competitive hackers hacking it -- with no luck. They are all the time improving the security of bitcoins because there are many developers developing bitcoin.

I can definitely see Bitcoin becoming a payment system in the future, but it's backing doesn't come from the ability to tax citizens and businesses so I don't think it can ever be a real currency. I could certainly be wrong about that though.

And for people thinking "mac can´t get virus". It can.

Bitcoin is coming back, bitstamp price(now 710) has rapidly risen over 100$ in 6 hours .

(02-13-2014 11:32 PM)Onto Wrote:  Yeah, I don't mean to piss on anyone else's Cheerios, but I hate to see people get wiped out. I'm certainly not the brightest bulb in the pack with the financial markets, but I just don't see how any of this is going to end well in regards to bitcoin.

It's not regulated, which means it really is the Wild Wild West. Governments don't want it and I can guarantee the Govt will always win. Always.

Yeah you can strike gold with Bitcoin, if your timing is right and you can withdrawal your money too.

It's fine for high-risk speculation, I just wouldn't put more money in than I would if I were going to the casino.

I'm curious, Is there an instrument out there that will let you short Bitcoin?

I keep thinking about the movie "Office Space" where they wrote this slick program that was supposed to steal small amounts of money over time and they would all get rich slowly and quietly.

Onto:
There are a lot of ongoing developments regarding Bitcoin.

On a daily basis new information and networks and companies are coming out or growing, including various ways to short bitcoin. Certainly, the markets for bitcoin are NOT as developed as other financial instruments; therefore, some of the shorting instruments for bitcoin may be a rip off. There have been some postings regarding the shorting of BTC in either this thread or the other RVF bitcoin thread.

Here's the other RVF BTC thread. http://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-29818.html?


To me, it sounds as if, in your various posts in this thread, you are throwing out skepticism and criticism of bitcoin investment without really giving us any meat for your objections. You did the same in a previous post from a few days ago, as well.. to just suggest, as others, that BTC is a bubble... o.k... maybe BTC is a bubble... but that does NOT really seem to add much value to our conversation, here... to say that BTC is a bubble... We have already gone over several of those kinds of BTC is a bubble arguments in earlier parts of this thread... and surely there are a lot of BTC is a bubble arguments in mainstream media… especially uninformed discussions about BTC in the mainstream media……

Have you read through the earlier postings in this thread, and the other RVF BTC thread, cited above? If NOT I suggest that there is a lot of good information already discussed and pointed out about BTC.


Certainly, there are a lot of BTC nay sayers out there regarding bitcoin, including in the mainstream media, and a lot of guys have both made and lost money in bitcoin... some of them are members of this forum.

There also may be a lot of scheming regarding bitcoin, which may cause guys to make money or lose additional money.

Your point about bitcoin as a currency is only part of the bitcoin story. Bitcoin is also a network and a payment system.... and can be used for a variety of other verification and transactional purposes... sometimes in complement with other crypto-currencies… and maybe even some other crypto currency will take over some of the space of BTC. However, even if some other crypto currency takes over BTC’s market share, that does NOT mean that BTC is a loser… because at the moment, BTC holds the lions share of the crypto currency market cap, and BTC is quite a bit more established than the other crypto currencies… at least, at the moment.

For the most part, NONE of us here have crystal balls or are claiming to know everything about BTC or the future of BTC or other crypto currencies. I believe that we are sharing information about bitcoin in this thread..... and making predictions about the direction of bitcoin with that information.

Ultimately, guys in this forum are adults who can weigh the risks and decide whether and how to invest.... You will see repeated over and over NOT to invest more than you can lose.

Surely, guys on this forum may be able to benefit from some naysaying regarding BTC or crypto currencies in this thread - especially if the naysaying contributes points of view that have NOT been considered or takes into account some of the various points that have already been discussed in this thread....

(02-14-2014 04:04 AM)Ardbeg Wrote:  NPR's Planet Money did an interesting piece on Bitcoin's future. This venture bet's a financial writer on the popularity of Bitcoin in five years.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/02/0...oins-futur

I'm a pessimist when it comes to Bitcoin. With its volatility, I don't see it becoming any type of actual currency.

The BTC skeptic in the linked article made a very good point about the BTC hoarding issue… and I am NOT sure whether the hoarding issue will be a downfall of BTC in the long term… probably, BTC could NOT serve as a long term currency with that kind of limited supply issue… but it could serve as a store of value, a network and other secure/public transactional mechanisms.

Currently, the BTC supply is increasing at more than 10% a year. I had already posted about my concerns about this lack of increasing supply issue… and I am thinking that once BTC matures, a 3-5% per year increase in BTC supply would have been better for BTC, especially, if it were to serve as a currency. At the moment, it is probably helpful to have limitations on the supply increase that stops at 21 million BTC.

Guys have attempting to address this limited supply issue by saying that BTC is infinitely divisible misses the point…. because even if a BTC can be divided into 1 trillion parts, it does NOT address the problem of scarcity.. in attempting to use BTC as a currency. In that regard, BTC cannot really be a currency because it will always need to be measured in regard to the value of something else – however and nonetheless, BTC can serve as a store of value and BTC can serve as a payment system and it can be a network of various other secure transactional services.

BTW, volatility does NOT kill BTC as a currency, because as many have already addressed this issue and BTC will become less volatile when it is more widely adopted and with a larger market cap. However, I would NOT expect lack of volatility for more than 2 years… there are just too many vested and big money interests who are interested in BTC’s downfall.

(02-14-2014 05:47 AM)strengthstudent Wrote:  How can you have faith in fiat currency like USD or Euro? It is not backed up by anything either. We gave up on gold standard over 40 years ago. Fiat currency has lost 99% of its value in 100 years and because the people handling the shit are incompetent keynesian(I cannot believe how people can be keynesian -- havent they read his the general theory? I have and it is RIDICULOUS.) bankers and government officials who has very little sense what they are doing and are mostly interest in providing an illusion of prosperity instead of real growth, that's keynesian economics for you. They are pushing more and more money through printers and manipulating interest rates which is causing inflation. Would you rather have currency which is increasing its value rather than something which loses ten percent of its value every decade?

StrengthStudent:

I agree with everything you said in the above post, except the portion about the printing of money is Keynsian, which the printing of money is NOT keynsian.. The printing of money in these particular circumstances is some newly fangled government / rich person sabotage tactic to give money to rich people (mostly banks). Keynsian, on the other hand, would distribute the money to the people more broadly in order that the money could be spent to stimulate the economy. Maybe some day the money will trickle the people, but these days the money is only circulating amongst rich circles, or being stashed away or being invested somewhere other than in America and other than the American people. It is NOT going towards social programs, housing, jobs or small business loans.. .or any loans for that matter. Agree or disagree with the concept of Keynsianism, I would hardly call the current tactic Keynsian.. even though the current money printing and giving to rich people tactic is corrupt as fuck, as you have pointed out.

(02-14-2014 10:07 AM)pants Wrote:  


And for people thinking "mac can´t get virus". It can.

Pants:
The image here stating: “If you didn't want your bitcoins stolen, you shouldn't have given the private keys to anonymous drug dealers” seems to attempt to blame the victims.
I get your point about the need to be responsible and careful when dealing with questionable entities… but in the end… how are we supposed to know which enties are questionable… silkroad 2, seemed pretty valid to me….
We really need some systemic fixes to the BTC system in order that BTC is NOT so easily stolen and there is accountability…. It sure would be tempting to steal 4,000 BTC, if one person had strict control over it and had acquired them in less than 6 months. Surely, some people do stupid things concerning their various transactions, but if any random entity can walk away with more than 4,000 BTC without paying a price or being accountable, we have a security problem that needs to be fixed - far beyond the responsibility of individuals. I would hate for my BTC to disappear on any of the exchanges.. btc e or coinbase and that could happen, if there is a security breach or maybe I did NOT jump through a zillion authentication hoops. MY point is that we need better and easier BTC security to be used with any cite and to protect individuals who may NOT know any better and get caught up in the technical mumbo jumbo.

(02-14-2014 11:29 AM)strengthstudent Wrote:  Bitcoin is coming back, bitstamp price(now 710) has rapidly risen over 100$ in 6 hours .

You may be right about the price going up and NOT coming back down… and who can really say.. ? I have been thinking that we were going to have stagnation at least until the middle of next week… given the multitude of recent negative news… but what do I know?

Yesterday evening, I was on the verge of making an additional BTC purchase at $550 and then before I could click buy and get my numbers straight, the BTC price had gone up to $580.. in a flash. Since I had just bought at $590 (an hour earlier), I was holding out for below $550… which I was NOT able to accomplish. $580 is looking like a pretty good buy price, at the moment. FUCK..

In any event, I cannot have too many regrets, in the past few days, I was able to buy more than my usual amount (5 BTC) at below the current floating $690-710 price.

(02-14-2014 11:58 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  To me, it sounds as if, in your various posts in this thread, you are throwing out skepticism and criticism of bitcoin investment without really giving us any meat for your objections.

You have your opinion and I have mine. I see bitcoin as something that has no real foundation other than hopes and dreams of profit and freedom. This psychological symbolism has skyrocketed the value of it.

Not to say stock markets and consumer products themselves aren't also psychologically driven. They certainly are.

You asked in an earlier post what people thought about bitcoin and I'm giving my opinion. I see things in a different way than you, but does that mean it's therfore unimportant and of no value?

We'll see what happens in the future, and for what it's worth I hope I'm wrong.

EDIT: I remember not even a month ago as Bitcoin was peaking reading articles about it going to $10,000 even $100,000. When I see this kind of mania in the press it screams "bubble" to me and that the big move is probably done with. Now one could say, "There's no rational basis for thinking it was a top based on some news articles. No fundamental reason there."

Well, what can I say, that's the way I see.

(02-14-2014 12:41 PM)Onto Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 11:58 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  To me, it sounds as if, in your various posts in this thread, you are throwing out skepticism and criticism of bitcoin investment without really giving us any meat for your objections.

You have your opinion and I have mine. I see bitcoin as something that has no real foundation other than hopes and dreams of profit and freedom. This psychological symbolism has skyrocketed the value of it.

Not to say stock markets and consumer products themselves aren't also psychologically driven. They certainly are.

You asked in an earlier post what people thought about bitcoin and I'm giving my opinion. I see things in a different way than you, but does that mean it's therfore unimportant and of no value?

We'll see what happens in the future, and for what it's worth I hope I'm wrong.

I have no problem with RVF guys expressing their opinions in this thread, and surely, there may be ways that guys with little to no experience with bitcoin and/or other crypto currencies can still contribute to this thread, in a variety of ways...

I would think you should concede that some of your past statements in this thread have been very broad generalizations without much meat to them.. and can almost be taken as criticisms of guys in this thread who are choosing to invest in BTC or other cryptos in various ways.


Take the below statement, for example:

"I see bitcoin as something that has no real foundation other than hopes and dreams of profit and freedom."

I hardly even know where to begin with such a broad sweeping statement... you are saying that BTC has NO foundation.... without really giving us a backing for how you came to that conclusion, exactly. In fact bitcoin is a very sophisticated and technological system in which there have been numerous attempts to undermine its foundations or to corrupt it, and BTC is dealing pretty damn well with these various ongoing attacks. There is some foundation there.. .other than hopes and dreams... wouldn't you agree or concede in some regard about the foundation being more than your assertion?

Then you are suggesting that guys investing in BTC may be pie in the sky... surely there are hopes and dreams of profit and freedom... but there is more than just that.. and people buy into BTC for a large number of reasons, including potentially, for some hopes and dreams of profit and/or freedom. But also there may be other practical considerations and/or fascination with technology or even frustration incentives concerning the various shenanigans of fiat currencies and political manipulation... That is more than just freedom.. and even if bitcoin were only to offer freedom, then freedom would be an important thing to achieve, no? We cannot expect to be totally free from govt, companies and tyranny of the modern world, but people instinctively want some control over their lives, I would think. In other words freedom is NOT a bad or an unimportant thing to strive for.


Surely, there are all kinds of guys reading this thread and making contributions to the thread, and some have NOT invested at all into BTC, and some have made considerable investments into BTC. And, there are variations between those extremes.

I guess part of my point is that anyone can have an opinion about BTC and/or other crypto currencies, but that opinion will seem to be more of a contribution to this thread if it is NOT seeming to come off as critical of other guys or broad generalizations with little substantiation(s).

It would be nice to see a response from you that says something like, "I looked into the possibility of shorting BTC, and I found this..... etc etc... and based on my research, shorting of BTC is _____" Or whatever subject related to BTC (or crypto currencies) that you are interested in... and mixing comments that BTC is "bullshit" or a "bubble" would be more palatable if there is some substantive contributions to what you are saying that may go along with the criticism(s).

Hopefully this response helps to clarify.

Actually, if you sense that my response(s) are getting too personal, then feel free to PM me or let me know to PM you.

Bitcoin is a great innovation in the field of money and finance. The last great innovation banks had was the credit cards... and it was in the 50s. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are updating the whole system to the modern level. It is ludicrous that we can have have video skype chats for free almost anywhere in the world with almost anyone else but sending money through internet is both costly and constrained or requires multiple thirdparties.

JayJuanGee:
In a sense printing money can be considered keynesian if the aims are to increase the aggregate demand(main concept of keynes) in one way or another -- by increasing inflation(to avoid deflation -> hording -> less AD) or by the intent to increase the money supply in the economy and as a result increasing spending(which in fact does not necessarily happen).

Stocks: Founded on the "assets" of a company whether it's real estate, intellectual property, equipment, branding, etc.

Real Estate: Founded on the legal precedence of land ownership and usefullness as shelter.

Fiat Currency: Founded on a Nation of Laws by its citizens with the abilitly to make it's citizens subscribe to and adhere to those laws. Tax reciepts.

Bitcoin: ? The only foundation appears to be the desire for someone else to see it also as valuable. I don't see how the foundation of many computer systems networked together makes it's worth $14+ billion dollars.

I understand you have something invested and a lot of intricate knowledge on the subject. I can only suggest that an "outsiders" opinion can be valuable for the very reason he has nothing invested in it either way.

(02-14-2014 02:17 PM)strengthstudent Wrote:  Bitcoin is a great innovation in the field of money and finance. The last great innovation banks had was the credit cards... and it was in the 50s. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are updating the whole system to the modern level. It is ludicrous that we can have have video skype chats for free almost anywhere in the world with almost anyone else but sending money through internet is both costly and constrained or requires multiple thirdparties.

You might be right that Bitcoin will be used as an intemediary payment system worldwide. The technology (exchanges) might even get bought by a consortium of banks or who knows. But what happens to the holders of the Bitcoins? Who is gaurenteeing their rights to their investments and that they will ge paid appropriately?

What's to stop the international financial community from developing their own Bitcoin technology? What would happen to Bitcoin holders then?

I don't mean to be a naysayer, but when I look at Bitcoin as an investment these are the things I think of.

(02-14-2014 02:02 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  In fact bitcoin is a very sophisticated and technological system in which there have been numerous attempts to undermine its foundations or to corrupt it, and BTC is dealing pretty damn well with these various ongoing attacks. There is some foundation there.. .other than hopes and dreams... wouldn't you agree or concede in some regard about the foundation being more than your assertion?

Bitcoin has held up it's price above the $500 mark against alot of pressure for sure, but could it be because there are some very strong hands supporting it? By strong hands I mean those who bought in "very" early with sizable positions. It won't be too easy to shake them out but I'm sure they wouldn't mind cashing out either, but just like in any real market, these guys can't sell too much too quickly without moving the price against them which means they have to do it slowly (distributing) to the new and softer hands.

I'm not saying this is happening now, I'm just giving a possible reason for the current price support. Time will tell.

(02-14-2014 02:17 PM)strengthstudent Wrote:  JayJuanGee:
In a sense printing money can be considered keynesian if the aims are to increase the aggregate demand(main concept of keynes) in one way or another -- by increasing inflation(to avoid deflation -> hording -> less AD) or by the intent to increase the money supply in the economy and as a result increasing spending(which in fact does not necessarily happen).

I get what you are saying, but I think that it is misleading to call it Keynesian... rather than calling it more what it is... a fricken nightmare in which money is being given to the rich without any strings attached.... unless there happens to be some behind the scenes strings.. .. but whatever the strings, if they were attached, are NOT going to spread money in a broader level to the people.

We do NOT necessarily need to get into any details here; however, another ridiculous part about printing so much money and giving it to the rich is that the rich can enjoy the various aspects of the money prior to inflation.. and if the money ever does reach the people, then by that time, the money is going to be worth a whole hell of a lot less...

I think we agree that this whole printing of money is a mess and corrupt... but we may or may NOT agree on the solution... .but that is likely beyond this thread... and you and I do seem to agree that BTC seems to be something that can help to address some of the negative aspects about what is happening with various fiat currencies... including the dollar.

(02-14-2014 02:24 PM)Onto Wrote:  ....

Onto:

Generally, I agree with the substance of your last couple of posts, or at least the explanatory aspect of them. Thanks for those.

(02-14-2014 02:24 PM)Onto Wrote:  Bitcoin: ? The only foundation appears to be the desire for someone else to see it also as valuable.

There is a little more than that going on with bitcoin, but the fact that people value bitcoin gives value to it. The value is based on a variety of fundamentals including technological innovativeness that seems to largely solve the double spend problem... and also the peer to peer aspect that makes it very difficult to shut down, even though certainly it can be fucked with in a large variety of ways.. until it becomes bigger.

(02-14-2014 02:24 PM)Onto Wrote:  I don't see how the foundation of many computer systems networked together makes it's worth $14+ billion dollars.

At its peak price in early December it had a market cap of around $14 to $16 billion... however, in recent weeks it has floated between $7 billion and $10 billion.

This market cap is likely to get much higher in the future... how far into the future, is unclear. Anyhow, gold has about 6.5 trillion market cap, and the US dollar has about a $14 trillion market cap. Bitcoin only has to take away a certain amount (a small percentage) of those functions in order to skyrocket in value... So for example, if BTC were to take away .01% of the functions of dollars and gold, then BTC would be valued at 20 trillion multiplied by .1% (which would lead to a $20 billion dollar market cap, which is about 2 times the current price). If bitcoin takes more market share, lets say 1% or even 10%, then those lead to 10 and 100 times increases from the $20 billion to a $200 billion or potentially a $2 trillion.


I am just throwing out some numbers that are somewhat speculative of the potential of Bitcoin.. and/or other crypto currencies. It is possible, that other crypto currencies may take away some of this cryptocurrency market share, but at the moment, BTC is the leader.

(02-14-2014 02:24 PM)Onto Wrote:  I understand you have something invested and a lot of intricate knowledge on the subject. I can only suggest that an "outsiders" opinion can be valuable for the very reason he has nothing invested in it either way.

Actually, this is a good point, and I agree with the sentiment. I also agree that some guys may view BTC has a threat to the world as we know it, and may be hostile to BTC in that regard. .. with good reason...

Accordingly, guys may be invested in the success or the failure of BTC whether they are directly invested in BTC or NOT... ... Accordingly, the NON-investment in BTC may be an investment, and those guys may be able to contribute value to the discussion of BTC.

(02-14-2014 02:29 PM)Onto Wrote:  

(02-14-2014 02:17 PM)strengthstudent Wrote:  Bitcoin is a great innovation in the field of money and finance. The last great innovation banks had was the credit cards... and it was in the 50s. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are updating the whole system to the modern level. It is ludicrous that we can have have video skype chats for free almost anywhere in the world with almost anyone else but sending money through internet is both costly and constrained or requires multiple thirdparties.

You might be right that Bitcoin will be used as an intemediary payment system worldwide. The technology (exchanges) might even get bought by a consortium of banks or who knows. But what happens to the holders of the Bitcoins? Who is gaurenteeing their rights to their investments and that they will ge paid appropriately?

What's to stop the international financial community from developing their own Bitcoin technology? What would happen to Bitcoin holders then?

I don't mean to be a naysayer, but when I look at Bitcoin as an investment these are the things I think of.

These are all very good points that could affect either long term or short term success of BTC or the long term or the short term price of BTC.

They are considerations about whether and how to invest in BTC or some other crypto currency, but these considerations do NOT necessarily dictate that a guy may NOT profit from short term investing in BTC or some other crypto currency or that BTC, as a network, may contribute value that a guy wants to invest in. Maybe bitcoin is cryptocurrency 1.0, but there are versions 2.0 and 3.0.......

You know the saying that we should NOT let the perfect be the enemy of the good... .well, as antonopolous has said, BTC is good enough... at least for now... and it even seems to be a work in progress, as you seem to be suggesting in this post.