Post: #76

(07-17-2014 02:28 PM)Checkmat Wrote:  

(07-17-2014 02:25 PM)ocean Wrote:  Putin's plane overlapped MH17 flight route less than hour before

http://rt.com/news/173672-malaysia-plane-crash-putin/

Mistaken identity perhaps

His plane surely has both active and passive countermeasures.

Post: #77

(07-17-2014 04:20 PM)calihunter Wrote:  Neither Russian nor Ukraine have any military or political motive in this plane going down.
But some fuckheads with a BUK they got to play with from Papa Putin could target whatever is flying overhead just because.
Don't underestimate the stupidity of my lumpen countrymen from Donetsk Region. If there ever was a bunch worthy of Worldstarhiphop in the EE that would be them

For argument's sake (even though it's looking like the separatists accidently shot the plane down), Kiev most definitely does have a political motive. If they could shoot down an international plane and get away with blaming the separatists / Russia that would help their cause by internationalizing the crisis instead of keeping it pretty much localized.

Post: #78

This looks more like a case of stupidity or incompetence than anything else. So was KAL 007.

Post: #79

Yeah, this is what will isolate Putin.

Russia already pushing blame on Kiev. Unwise, I think.

Post: #80

Some good trolling here:

Post: #81

(07-17-2014 01:15 PM)Mekorig Wrote:  I would be more fareful with that line of tough. As more i read about the incident, the more i think it was an accident by either the russians or the terrorists, not a deliverated move to escalate the conflict.

Spin is powerful, deliberation or accident can lead to the same result.

Sinking_of_the_RMS_Lusitania

Quote:When she left New York for Liverpool on what would be her final voyage on 1 May 1915, submarine warfare was intensifying in the Atlantic. Germany had declared the seas around the United Kingdom to be a war-zone, and the German embassy in the United States had placed a newspaper advertisement warning people not to sail on Lusitania. On the afternoon of 7 May, Lusitania was torpedoed by a German U-Boat, 11 mi (18 km) off the southern coast of Ireland and inside the declared "zone of war". A second internal explosion sent her to the bottom in 18 minutes.

In firing on a non-military ship without warning, the Germans had breached the international laws known as the Cruiser Rules. Although the Germans had reasons for treating Lusitania as a naval vessel, including that the ship was carrying war munitions and that the British had also been breaching the Cruiser Rules,[4][5][6][7][8] the sinking caused a storm of protest in the United States, as 128 Americans were among the dead. It also influenced the decision by the US to declare war in 1917.

Quote:It was in the interests of the British to keep US passions inflamed, and a fabricated story was circulated that in some regions of Germany, schoolchildren were given a holiday to celebrate the sinking of the Lusitania. This story was so effective that James W. Gerard, the US ambassador to Germany, recounted it in his memoir of his time in Germany, Face to Face with Kaiserism (1918), though without substantiating its validity

Quote:There has long been a theory, expressed by historian and former British naval intelligence officer Patrick Beesly and authors Colin Simpson and Donald E. Schmidt among others, that Lusitania was deliberately placed in danger by the British authorities, so as to entice a U-Boat attack and thereby drag the USA into the war on the side of Britain.

The history of the ship is fascinating, and the recent partial declassification of documents and explorations of the wreck show a great number of undeclared munitions on the ship, and the condition of the wreck, including unexploded depth charges, suggest evidence that the wreck has been attempted to destroyed to cover up something.

Post: #82

Ukrainian army might be stupid, but why would they take down a plane? The rebels have no air support. That leaves the possibility that either the Ukrainian army attacked what they thought a single Russian plane, which is hard to believe, or it is the rebels who mistook the plane for a Ukrainian Cargo plane and took it down.

ps: oh yeah and there is the slight possibility that there is no missile and this is an accident and it's just a wild coincidence that it happened over Donetsk.

Post: #83

(07-17-2014 05:22 PM)turkishcandy Wrote:  the rebels who mistook the plane for a Ukrainian Cargo plane and took it down.

I still don't understand what a Ukrainian cargo plane would be doing at 33,000 ft AGL close to the border with Russia.

A possibility would be to airdrop cargo to resupply the Ukrainian forces. But why not use armored vehicles instead? After all, the Ukrainian military has air superiority. And at 33,000 ft AGL, the airdrop would be horribly inaccurate. Well, if the parachutes were opened close to the ground, it would be less inaccurate.

More importantly, why were civilian aircraft flying over a warzone in which military aircraft have been shot down by surface-to-air missiles? Why wasn't the airspace over the Donbas closed to civilian air traffic weeks ago?

Post: #84

(07-17-2014 05:32 PM)Icarus Wrote:  More importantly, why were civilian aircraft flying over a warzone in which military aircraft have been shot down by surface-to-air missiles? Why wasn't the airspace over the Donbas closed to civilian air traffic weeks ago?

An advisory has gone out since months past to avoid Ukrainian airspace. Most western airlines has heeded it such as BA and LH.

MH likely ignored this due to shorter flight = cheaper.

Post: #85

Relevant

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_29...tion-1561/

29 June, 18:30


Donetsk militia takes control of Ukrainian anti-air installation
Photo: RIA Novosti
The self-defense forces of Donetsk People’s Republic seized control of a Ukrainian anti-air military installation, RIA Novosti reports.

"The forces of Donetsk People’s Republic assumed control of A-1402 military base," the militia's representative said. According to him, it is an anti-aircraft missile forces facility equipped with Buk mobile surface-to-air missile systems.
During the last several days the militia took control of two internal security troops' installations in eastern Ukraine.
Read more: http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_29...tion-1561/

Post: #86

A quick look on @flightradar24 and you can see the move away from Ukraine airspace pic.twitter.com/lS3OI5O8Ug

Post: #87

(07-17-2014 06:05 PM)Vicious Wrote:  MH likely ignored this due to shorter flight = cheaper.

Flying some 200 miles North of that route would have increased the cost negligibly and reduced the risk considerably. I am starting to think that Malaysia Airlines is ruled by bean-counting morons.

Well, 2 planes down in less than 5 months...

Post: #88

Post: #89

Quote:UKRAINE — A Malaysia Airlines passenger jet crashed was shot down in eastern Ukraine on Thursday, US officials confirmed.

A senior U.S. official said one radar system saw a surface-to-air missile system turn on and track an aircraft right before the plane went down. A second system saw a heat signature at the time the airliner was hit, the official said.

The United States is analyzing the trajectory of the missile to try to learn where the attack came from

http://kdvr.com/2014/07/17/report-malays...n-ukraine/


I am not a genius when it comes to political cover up, conspiracy, fake moon landings, etc. But to the guys on the board who are hard science guys or truly knowledgeable. If radar picks up the trajectory of the missile or the launch location pinging the plane. Can that all be faked or can it give a good idea where it came from?

To me, I think with that data you can probably figure out where the missile came from. But I am curious what the experts here say.

Post: #90

(07-17-2014 06:27 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  If radar picks up the trajectory of the missile or the launch location pinging the plane. Can that all be faked or can it give a good idea where it came from? To me, I think with that data you can probably figure out where the missile came from.

If the SAM missile broadcasts its own position and velocity over a radio channel, then it should be even easier than relying on radar signals (which can be fabricated), since several different receptors spread over a wide area should receive the exact same telemetry signal from the missile.

For more details: Telemetry Analysis (1995)

Post: #91

I'm calling false flag based on what I've seen and what I've read. I saw that RT video live that was horrendous. Malaysian airlines can't catch a break.

To be fair to the airline, there was 4 planes in that corridor at the time it was shot down, it's well used by European airlines for flights to the south east.

Post: #92

Icarus, I got a 404 error. But it does sound like it can be figured out with some degree of certainty given, what I imagine, the assets (radar, satellites, etc.) that are focused on the Ukraine/Russia border due to the current crisis.

Some "intercepted" messages seem to indicate the Russian separatists know they fucked up. I put intercepted in quotes because no one has to fully verify they are authentic messages.


EDIT: Works now, thanks Icarus. Not sure what happened. I imagined there was a lot of data but didn't know how it was transmitted. Good stuff thanks!

Post: #93

(07-17-2014 06:40 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  Icarus, I got a 404 error.

You should be able to read the CIA article. Perhaps CIA links are blocked by your ISP. In any case, google the following to find the article:

"Some of the ways in which Soviet missile flights and the missiles themselves can be reconstructed by monitoring their signals."

Post: #94

If it's true that the separatists claimed responsibility then quickly retracted it, then that's fairly incriminating. If so, that kind of pulls the rug out from under Putin if he was hoping for a moral high-ground reason to provide more overt assistance to the separatists. Unless they really screw up, I think Kiev may have just won this thing.

Post: #95

Interesting that the US has the capabilities to pinpoint a surface to air system turning on and locking on a target but they can't seem to find a jumbo fucking jet that disappeared

Post: #96

(07-17-2014 06:53 PM)Carlos100 Wrote:  If it's true that the separatists claimed responsibility then quickly retracted it, then that's fairly incriminating. If so, that kind of pulls the rug out from under Putin if he was hoping for a moral high-ground reason to provide more overt assistance to the separatists. Unless they really screw up, I think Kiev may have just won this thing.

I don't think it fundamentally changes anything.

Post: #97

(07-17-2014 06:57 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  Interesting that the US has the capabilities to pinpoint a surface to air system turning on and locking on a target but they can't seem to find a jumbo fucking jet that disappeared

The U.S. Navy almost certainly has at least one signals intelligence (SIGINT) ship in the Black Sea listening to radio communications, SAM missile telemetry, etc. The U.S. Navy does not have a crystal ball to know where a civilian aircraft will vanish so they can send a SIGINT vessel to the region a few days in advance to listen to radio communications and track the aircraft.

Post: #98

(07-17-2014 07:01 PM)Icarus Wrote:  

(07-17-2014 06:57 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  Interesting that the US has the capabilities to pinpoint a surface to air system turning on and locking on a target but they can't seem to find a jumbo fucking jet that disappeared

The U.S. Navy almost certainly has at least one signals intelligence (SIGINT) ship in the Black Sea listening to radio communications, SAM missile telemetry, etc. The U.S. Navy does not have a crystal ball to know where a civilian aircraft will vanish so they can send a SIGINT vessel to the region a few days in advance to listen to radio communications and track the aircraft.

Icarus, you a secret agent man? You seem to know a lot (which I appreciate).

But I was going to say something also along the lines of Ukraine is a known conlfict makes sense to focus intelligence assets there.

No one expected what was going to happen to the first Malaysian flight. Also, the pilot seemed to skirt all known radars, etc. Very unexpected.

Post: #99

my post was a mistake, deleted

Post: #100

Yeah I'm curious to Icarus' background too. He is well-versed in Eastern geopolitics and history. And also he's good at internet privacy/searching. Probably a spy.