Post: #251

^ People could also have bought puts and got a lot more than 100% return.

Post: #252

(05-30-2014 02:12 PM)_DC_ Wrote:  Meh, shorting the very best you can hope for is 100% gain and it requires a bankrupcy or complete failure. 50% gain if you timed ANGl perfectly. Hardly the trade of the year. Im admitantly a bit down on the year but took 70% in 30 min a few days ago.

Best trade personally for my portfolio

(05-30-2014 02:16 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  ^ People could also have bought puts and got a lot more than 100% return.

My knowledge is severely lacking in options, any recommended resources/books that follows the KISS principle.

Post: #253

Good point on the puts.

Post: #254

Purchased BKE this morning. Really amazing financial management. Amazing profit margins too.

Dividends are 5-6% but this is largely hidden from stock screeners because of special dividends every year. 30% of company is still owned by founder, and about 5% by CEO. Very efficient use of capital and long history of treating stockholders well.

Its not a knock-it out of the park biz (50-100% yoy return), but its a safe and reliable equity (resembling a bond). Its at a reasonable PE of 13 and pays basically all earnings out every year via dividend, but still manages to grow and open new stores.

CAKE has been re-purchasing shares like mad (basically 100% of earnings), but BKE pays out near 100% of earnings in dividend.

Both companies have solid managements who have stayed with the company for over 20 years. I ended up just pulling the trigger on the cheaper PE one (BKE) today. Well see how it goes...

Post: #255

(06-03-2014 05:58 PM)DVY Wrote:  Purchased BKE this morning. Really amazing financial management. Amazing profit margins too.

Dividends are 5-6% but this is largely hidden from stock screeners because of special dividends every year. 30% of company is still owned by founder, and about 5% by CEO. Very efficient use of capital and long history of treating stockholders well.

Its not a knock-it out of the park biz (50-100% yoy return), but its a safe and reliable equity (resembling a bond). Its at a reasonable PE of 13 and pays basically all earnings out every year via dividend, but still manages to grow and open new stores.

CAKE has been re-purchasing shares like mad (basically 100% of earnings), but BKE pays out near 100% of earnings in dividend.

Both companies have solid managements who have stayed with the company for over 20 years. I ended up just pulling the trigger on the cheaper PE one (BKE) today. Well see how it goes...

Over 31% of the float is shorted. That's huge. It suggests Wall Street thinks there is something very wrong with this company. And with 11 analysts following the company it has adequate coverage.

What do you think Wall Street is getting wrong about the story?

Post: #256

Can't say what Wall-street thinks, but I can tell you what lay-people think. Clothing is a terrible business. Fashions change quickly, margins evaporate (because of year-end sales- which BKE does not have), online shopping (BKE is capturing that well) etc etc. American Eagle and Aeropostale (who the hell even wears those now) have gotten slammed recently. Basically a forgotten industry (unlike tech)

The company has ZERO debt, is priced at 13 PE, and pays out 75-100% of earnings every year, and manages to open about 10 stores/year and remodel. Management has been there for 20+ years. Huge % owned by founder- 30, and CEO- 6%. Its market cap is 2B and way below what most big firms invest in. Because of the special dividends, its escapes the stock-screeners.

A big portion of revenue and profits comes from jeans. I don't see the jeans fashion going anywhere. Profit margins are insanely high compared to other stores, and inventory is v. well managed.

It weathered the 2008-2009 recession well, slowed down dividend payments, then payed out a big dividend after profits came in.

This company is conservatively run and I place faith in their abilities. The fact they have "skin in the game" is just an extra assurance. Its a cash-cow on full harvest mode.

Post: #257

(06-04-2014 09:26 PM)DVY Wrote:  Can't say what Wall-street thinks, but I can tell you what lay-people think. Clothing is a terrible business. Fashions change quickly, margins evaporate (because of year-end sales- which BKE does not have), online shopping (BKE is capturing that well) etc etc. American Eagle and Aeropostale (who the hell even wears those now) have gotten slammed recently. Basically a forgotten industry (unlike tech)

The company has ZERO debt, is priced at 13 PE, and pays out 75-100% of earnings every year, and manages to open about 10 stores/year and remodel. Management has been there for 20+ years. Huge % owned by founder- 30, and CEO- 6%. Its market cap is 2B and way below what most big firms invest in. Because of the special dividends, its escapes the stock-screeners.

A big portion of revenue and profits comes from jeans. I don't see the jeans fashion going anywhere. Profit margins are insanely high compared to other stores, and inventory is v. well managed.

It weathered the 2008-2009 recession well, slowed down dividend payments, then payed out a big dividend after profits came in.

This company is conservatively run and I place faith in their abilities. The fact they have "skin in the game" is just an extra assurance. Its a cash-cow on full harvest mode.

It's interesting that you like BKE. Everyone I know kind of laughs at Buckle as being a year or two behind the trends. They're still selling Affliction tees, white washed jeans with oversized stitching, and other things that were popular in 2011-2012.

And because they never have anything on sale, girls don't flock there like they do to Forever 21 and similar places. Girls love the sale rack, and Buckle's sale rack is maybe 10% off if you're lucky. This is a little bit of a deterrent.

Post: #258

(06-04-2014 09:26 PM)DVY Wrote:  A big portion of revenue and profits comes from jeans. I don't see the jeans fashion going anywhere.

I think you might have answered my question as to why Wall Street is very negative about this company. Jeans as a trend are hurting:

https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti...26438.html

Post: #259

(05-30-2014 02:24 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  

(05-30-2014 02:12 PM)_DC_ Wrote:  Meh, shorting the very best you can hope for is 100% gain and it requires a bankrupcy or complete failure. 50% gain if you timed ANGl perfectly. Hardly the trade of the year. Im admitantly a bit down on the year but took 70% in 30 min a few days ago.

Best trade personally for my portfolio

(05-30-2014 02:16 PM)LeBeau Wrote:  ^ People could also have bought puts and got a lot more than 100% return.

My knowledge is severely lacking in options, any recommended resources/books that follows the KISS principle.

You don't need much to understand basic calls and puts, I would start with stuff like http://www.investopedia.com/ then start reading about reasons why you'd wanna use options (i.e. catalysts, special situations, earnings announcements, etc.)

Post: #260

(06-05-2014 02:52 AM)Ardbeg Wrote:  

(06-04-2014 09:26 PM)DVY Wrote:  A big portion of revenue and profits comes from jeans. I don't see the jeans fashion going anywhere.

I think you might have answered my question as to why Wall Street is very negative about this company. Jeans as a trend are hurting:

https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ti...26438.html

Girls favor yoga pants over jeans now? Fine with me...

People will always buy jeans however.

Don't know about BKE. Retail consumers are fickle.

Post: #261

(06-04-2014 09:26 PM)DVY Wrote:  Can't say what Wall-street thinks, but I can tell you what lay-people think. Clothing is a terrible business. Fashions change quickly, margins evaporate (because of year-end sales- which BKE does not have), online shopping (BKE is capturing that well) etc etc. American Eagle and Aeropostale (who the hell even wears those now) have gotten slammed recently. Basically a forgotten industry (unlike tech)

The company has ZERO debt, is priced at 13 PE, and pays out 75-100% of earnings every year, and manages to open about 10 stores/year and remodel. Management has been there for 20+ years. Huge % owned by founder- 30, and CEO- 6%. Its market cap is 2B and way below what most big firms invest in. Because of the special dividends, its escapes the stock-screeners.

Some good points here. I think you will have a market beating investment in BKE.

Post: #262

Wow, thanks for raising some good viewpoints.

The great returns are in solid busineses that are TODAY out of favor. All the negative sentiment is only incentive for me to buy as long as wipe-out risk is zero (because of minimal debt). Basically a classic "I lose a little, win a lot" asymmetric game. <--- I've been watching/reading way too much Joel Greenblatt these past few days. hahaha.

Lululemon is selling at 22 PE. Ill personally skip on the hype. Returns would be anemic imo.

One probability is that if earning are highly positive ( retail is highly seasonal) especially in the periods of "back to school" and "holiday season", the shorts will get squeezed out and the stock will rise quickly.

Post: #263

(06-05-2014 10:27 AM)DVY Wrote:  One probability is that if earning are highly positive ( retail is highly seasonal) especially in the periods of "back to school" and "holiday season", the shorts will get squeezed out and the stock will rise quickly.

If you wanted to bet on a short squeeze, a call strategy would earn far more profits with the leverage they provide.

Historically, do clothing retailers rally up around back-2-school time? Have you looked at Gap, Limited and others to see if they do that?

Post: #264

Just started reading this new value-blog. How funny that I stumble across this regarding mall retailers. http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/blo...5I0S_ldVpc

Post: #265

(06-06-2014 04:43 PM)DVY Wrote:  Just started reading this new value-blog. How funny that I stumble across this regarding mall retailers. http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/blo...5I0S_ldVpc

The author recommends Aeropostale and American Eagle at the end of the article. I always see people in those stores at the mall buying stuff. Just Buckle I never see anyone buy stuff from there in the store. But if the fundamentals are good than maybe its a buy.

Post: #266

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/10/us/faa-com...-approval/

FAA OKs first commercial drone flights over land -- for BP, in Alaska

started looking into drone manufactures

Post: #267

I might buy some of that BKE for fun, but I don't see shit out there to buy right now.

I like the oil companies, miners, and country ETFs buying on geopolitical events.

For example, I bought THD, the Thai stock market ETF the day after it plunged because of the the coup. It's up more than 5% since then.

Made money on ERUS, EWZ and TUR, but got out too early on all three, especially TUR.

I am neck deep in gold and silver miners now, betting on China and Russia buying, or shit hitting the fan in some other way. Eventual increase in inflation is a safe long bet, I think.

Post: #268

I am really liking Biglari Holdings. Still doing my due diligence, but am probably gonna put a good chunk of my bankroll into it. I believe its 50-60% undervalued.

Theres been a lot of hoopla about his CEO compensation but I just shrug. 25% compensation capped at 10MM/year. Seems reasonable to me.

^^^I've skipped all mining and natural resource stocks. Just can't wrap my head around it. If rig-drivers in Australia working the mines are making 100k+, what does that mean for the companies? Plus most of their assets are volatile. A drop in commodities demand would basically make earnings nil (for a lot of companies).

Post: #269

(06-12-2014 09:54 AM)Sp5 Wrote:  I might buy some of that BKE for fun, but I don't see shit out there to buy right now.

I like the oil companies, miners, and country ETFs buying on geopolitical events.

For example, I bought THD, the Thai stock market ETF the day after it plunged because of the the coup. It's up more than 5% since then.

Made money on ERUS, EWZ and TUR, but got out too early on all three, especially TUR.

I am neck deep in gold and silver miners now, betting on China and Russia buying, or shit hitting the fan in some other way. Eventual increase in inflation is a safe long bet, I think.

SP5, Are you watching Argentina?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-13...t-q-a.html

Post: #270

(06-13-2014 04:22 PM)DVY Wrote:  I am really liking Biglari Holdings. Still doing my due diligence, but am probably gonna put a good chunk of my bankroll into it. I believe its 50-60% undervalued.

Theres been a lot of hoopla about his CEO compensation but I just shrug. 25% compensation capped at 10MM/year. Seems reasonable to me.

^^^I've skipped all mining and natural resource stocks. Just can't wrap my head around it. If rig-drivers in Australia working the mines are making 100k+, what does that mean for the companies? Plus most of their assets are volatile. A drop in commodities demand would basically make earnings nil (for a lot of companies).

Quote:Biglari, the son of refugees from Iran, started out with a small restaurant chain called Western Sizzlin and used it as a platform to assume control of the Friendly's Ice Cream business (since sold) and the 500-store Steak 'n Shake. He turned around Steak 'n Shake and went on to buy the Maxim magazine company, First Guard Insurance and others. His failed to take over Cracker Barrel, the restaurant and gift store company.

I sat in on the annual meeting of publicly held Biglari Holdings (BH), which lasted four hours and was certainly worth my time. Its CEO is incredibly direct, and some might see him as arrogant, almost offensively so. He called one shareholder a "schmuck." He called the board of a target company "chihuahuas."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/look-buff...00107.html

Post: #271

(06-10-2014 03:13 PM)chyamor Wrote:  http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/10/us/faa-com...-approval/

FAA OKs first commercial drone flights over land -- for BP, in Alaska

started looking into drone manufactures

Me too. Facebook recently invested in a drone company for the purposes of expanding WiFi to regions where Internet accessibility is bad.

There are at least 10 companies making drones in the USA alone, but I think AeroVironment (AVAV) is the best. It supplies the Raven drone to the military forces of many countries :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_RQ-11_Raven

I have no position yet, but it is on my watch-list.

Post: #272

Does anyone here visit other forums specializing in the stock market and macroeconomic trends?

If so, which are the good ones?

I've been to a few but a lot of them have too much noise from people who don't know what they're doing and the valuable information is few & far between.

Also, all the ones I've found have a terrible layout and aren't very easy to navigate.

Post: #273

@monster

My go-to site is http://www.seekingalpha.com

I also pay $120 per year and read Morningstar's products.

Post: #274

Anyone trading on Iraq right now?

was thinking of calls on OIL but last time I played options on Ukraine/Russia ETF and got burned due to time value.

Maybe just long on OIL

it's hard to tell if it's just escalating now or it will go further.

I've heard people say crude's going to 115-120 on supply concerns while I heard others say its going to 100 due to OPEC wanting it to be even lower right now.

Post: #275

Not that this is a smart investment but alot of people were buying iraqi dinar cash hoping to get rich. That investment if you can call it that was never promising but especially bad in light of current events. I know iraq has their own stock market alot of people were investing in. I k ow sum people were reporting 30 to 40 percent gains for a while. Too risky for me though