(01-03-2014 12:32 AM)LeBeau Wrote:  Alright I'm going to be making my first purchase soon.

Any suggestions for buying in Canada?

I've seen a few different options but not sure who would be best...

For Guys in Canada: Emancipator beat me to it by linking his previous recommendation in the above post...

http://www.rooshvforum.com/thread-21537-...#pid614935



There may be other options, as well.


If you are just getting started, I would recommend that you buy in slowly to get your feet wet (figure out how to set up an account and to manage and move your coins); however, if you are of the belief that the market is going to rise, and you are in a hurry, then that's another story. I tend to think that it is going to rise... but I am just one person.

Apparently, El Mech thinks the BTC market is going down - b/c he says that he is in fiat (dollars or whatever)... but for how long, who knows?

Personally, I am a bit skittish about buying a lot of BTC at once b/c at any given moment, I do NOT have any good feelings about price direction, and I have NO idea if the price is going to go up or go down. Accordingly, I had been daily dollar cost averaging, which has meant buying a certain amount of BTC within my investment budget each day.... and in about the last couple of weeks I have spread this out a little bit less frequently.

Some other guys in this thread may have different (and/or better) recommendations.

Another possibility would be just to set up one or two accounts, and buy small amounts of BTC, and then get ready to invest at a time in which the price goes down. A risk with that approach is that the price may NOT go down or you may NOT be able to monitor it enough in order to know exactly when to buy when it is going down. If you look at the BTC charts, there have been several episodes of BTC going up and down quite dramatically several times over the last couple of years, but the past does NOT predict the future.

(01-02-2014 11:58 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  That's nice Jay Juan. I don't think any of us are on the same page. In other news I pumped NMC starting last night today and been back in fiat since 4 pm.

Congrats on choosing to invest in the one alt currency (NameCoin) on the one day that it did the best out of all the other alt currencies in the market yesterday, which could have gotten about 40% or so returns (depending on your timing). I have NO idea how to predict such, and even worse with the alt coins – because I do NOT know enough about them.

NOW that you are in fiat, I would infer from that you are predicting that BTC is going to go down now? For how long? just gonna feel it out for a while? a day, two days.. ? see what happens? Or maybe spontaneously get back in at some point. Well, you can always tell us afterwards what you did and we could have considered whether we had done the same.

BTW, El Mech, You realize that BTC has been generally trending upward since 12/21... from $580 to nearly $800. Maybe it will go down, who knows? But what would be a reason for it to go down? Chinese liquidating out of BTC during the month of January? I am thinking that downward BTC price adjustments for that issue should have already occurred, unless there is some other shoe to drop somewhere? And, in that regard, I see the BTC news as being generally good, in spite of some ongoing fear mongering.


Certainly, I cannot figure out how to time the market, and if I were to get out of BTC, I do NOT know when I would get back in BTC without losing some money. In other words, I am NOT getting out of BTC, because I would probably screw up the timing.
I would prefer NOT to lose money, so we MAY be on the same page regarding that goal - the goal NOT to lose money...

^ It's growing too fast and always crashes when it does. All the data you're reading is fake as well. I tested it by putting buy and sell orders in sometimes my order is 3X in the sell or buy book than what it actually is so I hold in USD when I'm sleeping

I might sell another coin soon.

(01-03-2014 08:15 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ It's growing too fast and always crashes when it does.

That is NOT a bad theory that BTC is growing too fast to sustain itself, and we know that any investment will only grow as fast as the market can bear.

Nonetheless, there is still considerable upside potential with BTC, and if we get more user-friendly BTC infrastructure that causes more "regular" people to find out about BTC, then there comes additional upside potential.

Additionally, if the branding of BTC gets converted to millibits or microbits or whatever name they use, then people may begin to buy those.

The instability that I continue to fear is that BTC is too good to be true - and there cannot be this much transfer of wealth from regular "old wealth" into a group of largely libertarian and technical and radical people (surely NOT everyone in BTC fits those categories). In any event, there are very interesting experiments going on to test the govt and its trigger happiness to regulate BTC. For example, the Texas politician (Stockman) who announced he is taking BTC (very risky when involved in politics and the transparency aspect of BTC is quite different from fiat). Additionally, the many seemingly pump and dump alt coins, that can definitely cause some issues with scams that causes concerns about winners and losers in those millions of dollars scenarios - nearly 70 alt coins listed on coinmarketcap. Could give good excuse for regulators to CRACK DOWN.

(01-03-2014 08:15 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  All the data you're reading is fake as well. I tested it by putting buy and sell orders in sometimes my order is 3X in the sell or buy book than what it actually is so I hold in USD when I'm sleeping

When you are referring to fake, I am NOT sure if you are talking about fiatleak.com or some other BTC exchange or spending reporting mechanisms, including blockchain.info. There may be a lot of irregularities and duplications with these various sites - but I DOUBT that the data flow is fake for some attempt to create hype for a pump and dump... Your testing may go to show whether El Mech is real???? ... Anyhow, back to point, sometimes, there may be duplicative reporting based upon the multiple verification process. When there is a lot of money to be made, there are going to be guys who are engaging in a variety of opportunistic and duplicative behavior, including the taking advantage of arbitrage factors.

I realize that you like the pump and dump theory, and surely there is some of that pump and dump going on, but pump and dump seems to NOT explain the main dynamic(s) going on with BTC (even though more pump and dump seems to be occurring with several opportunistic alt currencies and there are examples of BTC related fly by nights popping up to take advantage of the trend(s)).

Bitcoin will be a safer bet after Jan 31 because by then there won't be anymore uncertainty regarding the Chinese dumping anymore.

Thus, I expect the price after Jan 31 to appreciate slowly but surely as more retailers adopt bitcoin.

(01-03-2014 02:08 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  

(01-03-2014 12:32 AM)LeBeau Wrote:  Alright I'm going to be making my first purchase soon.

Any suggestions for buying in Canada?

I've seen a few different options but not sure who would be best...

I posted this last page on Canadian options.

(12-28-2013 04:52 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  Don't go with CAVirtex, they have weird fee structure and clauses in the contract (inactivity = funds being taken).
Not to mention the engine lags like crazy, have issues withdrawing/depositing and verification is backed up.

Canadians can still use Coinbase, here's the trick I used: RBC
Open an American USD account at RBC, then coinbase will see you as valid.

As a Canadian I use the following:
Coinbase
Vault of Satoshi
Localbitcoins
Quickbt
I've yet to use the bitcoin shop, bitcoin atm and cavirtex (verification took ages, and when issues with them came to light I decided to just stick to the other options)

Thanks, this post was the final prompt for an overdue +1 rep point from me.

A few further questions:

1) Just to clarify, you're diversifying your bitcoin across 5+ companies?

2) Also is it just RBC that allows that trick, or any of the big Canadian banks with USD accounts?

3) If you had to name 1-2 of those companies for holding small amounts (I'm just getting my feet wet at this point) which would you say was the easiest/most convenient without too high of fees?

Thanks LeBeau,

1) I'll break it down
Exchanges where I hold, buy, sell:
Coinbase: I use it because it's the main American option and initially signed up with them for their merchant solutions. I've since switched to BitPay and thus have been using Coinbase less and less (because of the long hold period).
Vault of Satoshi: Also allows Litecoin and Peercoin, the best Canadian option because when compared to Cavirtex their verification process is maybe 100x faster. It was easier in the past to put funds when they allowed cash deposits at BMO. In the future they are going to implement CAD into their trading engine. Currently if you want to deposit funds into VoS you need a wire transfer or certified checks. VoS in the future will also implement a feature where your bank account is connected to your VoS account allowing for seamless transfers between the two (ala Paypal-Bank)

Both the above two I have been extremely satisfied with (good cs, low fees, easy interface)

Others

I use localbitcoins as somewhat for arbitrage when I want to sell bitcoin for local fiat (CAD) and obtain cash rather quickly. Due to the high prices found here I would recommend against it but that's why localbitcoin is attractive to me as a seller.

Quickbt is what I used to make my first btc purchase at a small amount (using interact bought .8 btc), I havn't used it since, but I recommend it to people dipping their toes in bitcoins or for those that dedicate a % of their paycheck towards purchasing bitcoin. Quickbt is good because of how easy it is to purchase small amounts of bitcoin quickly. I think they've since switch from bitstamp to cavirtex since the last time I used them, which makes them less attractive (high price).

2) The key isn't to have just an ordinary US dollar account based in Canada but rather have an US dollar American based account done through one of the bank's American subsidiaries. I think only Canadian banks with big American retail operations offer this. So TD and RBC? I know in my case, the account is based in Florida.

3) I would just personally recommend going with Vault of Satoshi for now, it allows you to dip into other alt currencies (ltc,ppc) and their future implementations will only make it better. The downside is that you're going to take a hit in the mean time when you're exchanging CAD into USD and then whatever fees come from wire transfers and certified checks.

Second would be just taking a hit purchasing from quickbt or localbitcoins while saving on CAD-USD exchange rate (also maintaining a wallet because these two options don't allow you store them with them like an exchange does)

Third would be Coinbase + USD American Accnt

To be honest a lot of other Canadians will recommend cavirtex, but good luck getting verified (2-4+ weeks), getting hit by their fees, potentially losing $$$ as their engine lags, possibly getting your funds taken by them and some users report identity theft after using cavirtex.

Other more complicated options include btc-e or bitstamp. (not familiar with them)

Emancipator:

Good detailed report. Thanks.

I have a couple of questions and supplemental information.

(01-04-2014 04:32 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  Coinbase: I use it because it's the main American option and initially signed up with them for their merchant solutions. I've since switched to BitPay and thus have been using Coinbase less and less (because of the long hold period).

Doesn't the hold period depend upon whether you have verified your accounts with their Level 1 or Level 2 accounts. During the first 30 days, a guy may be stuck at Level 1. I recently moved to Level 2, so I can buy and sell 50 BTC per day; however, they are only going to immediately transfer 10 BTC per week. So far, I am NOT buying and/or selling that much at a time.

(01-04-2014 04:32 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  Second would be just taking a hit purchasing from quickbt or localbitcoins while saving on CAD-USD exchange rate (also maintaining a wallet because these two options don't allow you store them with them like an exchange does)

I hold some bitcoins on localbitcoins, and I did NOT know that there were any limitations in holding coins on there. Actually, in order to be able to sell BTC on localbitcoins, a guy has to maintain at least 1BTC in his localbitcoin account.

(01-04-2014 04:32 AM)Emancipator Wrote:  Other more complicated options include btc-e or bitstamp. (not familiar with them)

I have NOT used Bitstamp; however, BTC e, is fairly easy to set up; however, very difficult to get fiat into BTC e.

It is also really easy to get BTC into BTC e. There is NO fee to transfer BTC into BTC e, and once BTC is in their exchange, any trades are .2%. On BTC e, you can trade BTC, USD, Euro, Russan Rubles, and seven alt currencies (including Litecoin, Peercoin, Namecoin, Novacoin, Primecoin, Feathercoin, and Terracoin).. each of those trades would be at .2%.

JGG, I guess I must still be level 1 with coinbase.

Localbitcoin requires 1Btc minimum + amount you're selling to post an add. I look for locals buying. I dont hold my btc on lbc nor do I use localbitcoin's processors and escrow (thus avoiding lbc's fees). I pretty much use lbc as I would craigslist.

Good info on betc, I'm still wary on it but its an interesting trading platform.

We seem to be in the midst of an upwardly crash of BTC, and makes it very tempting to resist NOT buying while it is going up. B/c I want to lock in lower prices as it is going up; however, if it crashes back down, that would be an even better time to lock in lower prices.

I realize that some other guys see the situation in a different way and are itching to sell as BTC is going up (which is NOT a bad philosophy, if you know when to get back in, if at all).

BTC has been up to $920 today on Coinbase - it has been up nearly 60% in the last two weeks (from $580), and up about 10% in the past 5 hours (from $840). As I write, BTC is at about $890 and seems to be heading back down.

Maybe we will experience a downward adjustment of BTC today, but I am tending to think we could get back into the $1,200 territory within the next week or two... And, that is pure speculation on my part b/c I really do NOT know anything beyond the overall hype that seems to be underlying BTC (pent up demand, so to speak) and you never know with these upward trajectories how long they are going to last or how far they will take us.

Any guys think that BTC is topped out at $920?



By the way, in the last several weeks, I have found a couple of decent IPhone Apps for BTC:

1) Bitcoin Ticker - I was having some troubles with OTHER apps with the various alarms and alerts (especially false alarms). This app seems to have unambiguously resolved my alarm problems. With this app, I have NOT been getting ANY false alarms. Actually, one beef that I do have, though, is that I would like to be able to EASILY turn the audio alarm feature on this app ONLY without any other audio alarms being active, so if I am sleeping or otherwise in silent mode, i could still have the audio alarm of THIS ONE APP alert me so I could, if necessary, make a BTC buy order.


2) ZeroBlock - I found the BTC news article section of this app to be quite helpful b/c it updates fairly regularly (I have NOT come across too many good BTC news article apps, so there may be better ones out there, but this app has been serving my news needs pretty well in the past couple of weeks).

Every time we had this pattern before it has ended in a bubble. The previous times the price has rocket after we passed the last ATH. And then crash down to about the double ATH. If there is another bubble I will try to sell on the top. Not all my BTC but a some. Also the time between thr bubbles has been shorter and shorter. First two years then 8months so an other bubble at this moment might be right. Also it got so much attention since breaking $1000. Last year at this point there was almost no media attention and very few people know about it. Most of them to use silk road. And bitcoins itself was mostly related to silk.road. Not anymore. It's mainstream. Yes I'm super bullish

I´ll be holding for a while longer, keeping my eyes on up and coming crypto currencies with better technologies.

Everyone keeps telling me that Bitcoin is scalable, but truth is at the moment bitcoin caps out at 7 transactions / second(VISA 2000tps i think). They say it´s easy to fix. But I´m a little skeptical until a solution is actually presented.The blockchain should be rewritten with only the important information from time to time.

Overall bullish on bitcoin/crypto.

7 weeks until my miner is supposedly delivered!

I really can't figure out why it's going up. Anyone?

I'm holding in USD and not touching it until this is over

(01-05-2014 02:36 PM)pants Wrote:  I´ll be holding for a while longer, keeping my eyes on up and coming crypto currencies with better technologies.

Everyone keeps telling me that Bitcoin is scalable, but truth is at the moment bitcoin caps out at 7 transactions / second(VISA 2000tps i think). They say it´s easy to fix. But I´m a little skeptical until a solution is actually presented.The blockchain should be rewritten with only the important information from time to time.

Overall bullish on bitcoin/crypto.

7 weeks until my miner is supposedly delivered!

All you are really saying is that b/c of these kinds of BTC transaction limitations is that BTC is slow, but that also goes to its security and its peer to peer nature with the multiple confirmations to nearly eliminate the possibility of double spending.

I think that those kinds of speed fixes can be fairly easily accomplished (though I am NO techno wizard) by even conducting speedier transactions through ripple or some other alt crypto currency, but BTC would still be the underlying transfer of value.

Personally, I am of the sense that BTC needs various other alt currencies and even fiat currencies during the transition into adoption in order to keep its value from sky rocketing too much b/c personally, i find a more critical flaw with BTC regarding how little BTC is expanding in its supply, which is merely going to cause its value to sky rocket too much (into instability). We cannot have an investment like this that appreciates as much as BTC's potential. In my view, there needs to be some additional expansion of the supply built in for a variety of factors including increased user base and also accounting for people losing their BTC... and also to fight off deflation. It is too unstable, in my humble opinion, if the price of goods has to keep changing, in terms of BTC (for example a year later it cost half as many BTC). That is too unstable if it were to keep occurring over the long hall b/c there is NOT enough supply of BTC.

(01-05-2014 02:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I really can't figure out why it's going up. Anyone?

I'm holding in USD and not touching it until this is over

Personally, I do NOT think that currently is a good time to be in dollars... but what do I know?

I keep hoping that you are correct and BTC is going to go down some more so that I can buy more BTC, but it keeps going up, since 12/21 and BTC has NOT gone down hardly at all during that time.

I think you miss understand a little. Yes, Bitcoin is "slow" for transactions where you want to buy something and get it a minute later.
As you need nodes confirming that you actually own the money you are trying to spend.

When I say it´s not scalable as it currently is. I am talking about the maximum amounts of transactions being able to be processed within a certain amount of time. There is an easy fix for this, but it will require the blockchain to grow at a much faster speed, making it more difficult for small scale nodes to keep in the game pushing the technology in a more centralized direction.

Another fix to import an algorithm that rescan the blockchain to delete parts that are not important for the bitcoin network any more. If this is technologically possible atm, or how easy it would be to implement this into bitcoin I have no idea of.

El mech: How will you know "this" is done?

(01-05-2014 03:13 PM)pants Wrote:  I think you miss understand a little. Yes, Bitcoin is "slow" for transactions where you want to buy something and get it a minute later.
As you need nodes confirming that you actually own the money you are trying to spend.

When I say it´s not scalable as it currently is. I am talking about the maximum amounts of transactions being able to be processed within a certain amount of time. There is an easy fix for this, but it will require the blockchain to grow at a much faster speed, making it more difficult for small scale nodes to keep in the game pushing the technology in a more centralized direction.

Another fix to import an algorithm that rescan the blockchain to delete parts that are not important for the bitcoin network any more. If this is technologically possible atm, or how easy it would be to implement this into bitcoin I have no idea of.

You are correct that I misunderstood, and I was responding to another technical issue.

Surely, there are quite a few technological issues with BTC that are a bit difficult to grasp, and the couple that you are referring to seem to be manageable from my limited technological understanding. I am NOT trying to insult anyone because I am ONLY limited in describing from my own words, which may NOT be exactly what you were intending to say. Here goes:

1) Centralization issue:
Surely this can be a problem with any newly adopted system or creation. The smaller guys get bought out or in this case spent out of the market. It becomes more and more difficult for little guys to operate and to produce blocks because the shear computing power becomes too expensive, and then too much control is in the hands of too few people (companies) – allowing for sabatoge and/or corruption due to such and maybe even Govts stepping in to either protect or to further enrich certain groups. Even working within the bitcoin foundation board or whatever, some individuals may get undue influence and/or spot back doors that they are able to exploit in the creation of a fork. And, yes, there may be some preventative measures that could be taken in order to both create an incentive for smaller miners to stay in the game and to prevent the network from becoming too centralized.


2) Cluttering of the blockchain: O.k. Maybe certain aspects of the blockchain have to be reconfirmed from time to time, but if there exist parts of the blockchain that are just there and clutter, couldn’t those aspects be archived and/or ignored… even though they are there. Yes, let’s say 10 years down the road, why would it need to be known that my BTC was used to purchase some condoms or a pizza. But then there is other clutter in the blockchain that is NOT relevant to BTC (apparently the placement of DNA information and other items that are NOT relevant to BTC in the blockchain). O.k. These items get confirmed and seem redundant, but there still may be ways to algorithmically put them into archives and/or into a very low priority of data.

It is likely that you know more than me or have a better feeling or hunch for certain things, but these technical aspects seem fairly manageable. Though I also understand what you mean that any technological difficulties may be more easily dealt with earlier in the life of BTC rather than letting them go on and then they could become fatal to BTC because of the fall out.

(01-05-2014 03:13 PM)pants Wrote:  El mech: How will you know "this" is done?

Whatever the “this” is, I believe that the BTC price and market has already largely adjusted to the China news (that BTC price adjustment was largely made in mid-December-ish) and apparently, there are some alternative measures already coming into being in China for Chinese people to get BTC from Chinese fiat into exchanges. From my understanding, no matter where in the world, once a person gets their fiat into BTC, then it becomes fairly easy to move the BTC around – and that ability to move BTC around has NOT been blocked or attempted to be blocked in China.

Surely, it would be nice to hear from El Mech about what indicators he believes would be necessary in order to get back into BTC. Personally, one possibility would be a large downward price adjustment (but what if that large downward price adjustment does NOT happen)?

(01-05-2014 02:03 PM)friheten Wrote:  Every time we had this pattern before it has ended in a bubble. The previous times the price has rocket after we passed the last ATH. And then crash down to about the double ATH. If there is another bubble I will try to sell on the top. Not all my BTC but a some. Also the time between thr bubbles has been shorter and shorter. First two years then 8months so an other bubble at this moment might be right. Also it got so much attention since breaking $1000. Last year at this point there was almost no media attention and very few people know about it. Most of them to use silk road. And bitcoins itself was mostly related to silk.road. Not anymore. It's mainstream. Yes I'm super bullish

The same question that El Mech received could be given to Friheten.

Friheten said that he was going to sell a little bit of BTC…. Yet, at what point do you know that BTC is at its bubble and to sell. I would anticipate that Friheten is thinking $1,500 or $2,000 or something like that, but maybe this answer about price point would depend upon how long it were to take for BTC to get to whatever “high point” it reaches. Friheten already projected that he thinks that in this current run, he anticipates that BTC is going beyond its previous $1,200 high point, but what is that number going to be and when is it going to get there and how is a guy going to know when it is there? We are all kind of guessing about this, and we may have different factors or news that motivate us.

I certainly have little idea, and I am just going to keep dollar cost average buying BTC – but at a slower rate when the price of BTC is rising like it is. By the way, on paper today, I could have gotten out of my whole holdings of BTC at $936 on Coinbase and been at more than a 21% profit (including the various transaction fees).. Nonetheless, I remain in BTC for the “longer term” – maybe two years-ish, and maybe some will say, you should have gotten out while you had a chance… which could be correct and staying in is a gamble.

(01-05-2014 02:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I really can't figure out why it's going up. Anyone?

It is going up because of the trading volume on Huobi. The Chinese have found a way to fund their trading accounts with CNY. I am not exactly sure how they are doing it, but the trading volume indicates they are doing it, so that is a bullish sign for bitcoin.

Texas, yes it's very cute and I trust the Chinese as much as umm well nobody because they don't give a FUCK when it comes to cash.

(01-05-2014 06:36 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Texas, yes it's very cute and I trust the Chinese as much as umm well nobody because they don't give a FUCK when it comes to cash.

So do you think they are faking the trade volume?

The main think that makes me weary right now is I don't know what will happen if the Chinese government gets even more strict with its crackdown on Bitcoin.

JJG,

No, I think DD is full of shit -- such incomprehensible shit that I just think: "Ok, say your stuff", nod and move on.

I'm bullish on BTC, and that won't change if BTC reaches 50$, or 100K for that matter.

Also, I agree w/ El Mech abt being careful. Move some BTC to BTC-e, so you can go cash quickly in case of flash crash.

(01-05-2014 04:33 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  The same question that El Mech received could be given to Friheten.

Friheten said that he was going to sell a little bit of BTC…. Yet, at what point do you know that BTC is at its bubble and to sell. I would anticipate that Friheten is thinking $1,500 or $2,000 or something like that, but maybe this answer about price point would depend upon how long it were to take for BTC to get to whatever “high point” it reaches. Friheten already projected that he thinks that in this current run, he anticipates that BTC is going beyond its previous $1,200 high point, but what is that number going to be and when is it going to get there and how is a guy going to know when it is there? We are all kind of guessing about this, and we may have different factors or news that motivate us.

I certainly have little idea, and I am just going to keep dollar cost average buying BTC – but at a slower rate when the price of BTC is rising like it is. By the way, on paper today, I could have gotten out of my whole holdings of BTC at $936 on Coinbase and been at more than a 21% profit (including the various transaction fees).. Nonetheless, I remain in BTC for the “longer term” – maybe two years-ish, and maybe some will say, you should have gotten out while you had a chance… which could be correct and staying in is a gamble.

It's a good question. Earlier in this thread I posted that I should have had BTC at the exchange to buy sell and then buy in later. The price was at that point $900 and later it dropped to $500. If I did sell I would almost have doubled my BTC. The previous bubble has looked like this:

$1 - $36 - $2

$36 - $266 - $80

$266 - $1200 - $550

So the next bubble might look something like this

$1200 - $4500 - $2400

However it depends on the news. When we break the ATH I will start following all the online discussions and news.

(01-07-2014 10:57 AM)Paul T. Manuel Wrote:  I think there's a constant rate of increase in the money supply until it gets to a certain point and no more. There will be a finite supply of bit coins. This means that the incentive is for people to hoard them, because you'll always be able to buy more in the future with your bit coins than what you can buy now. Thanks to all to join this discussion.

[Mod: Removed spam links from now-banned spammer's message]

It doesn't matter if some people hoard, there are always people who will want to cash out and realize profit as well. The volatility of bitcoin means that simply holding BTC is not a full proof strategy. Take profit when you can and buy in the dips. That is the only strategy that seems to make sense.

(01-07-2014 09:38 AM)Maciano Wrote:  JJG,

No, I think DD is full of shit -- such incomprehensible shit that I just think: "Ok, say your stuff", nod and move on.

I'm bullish on BTC, and that won't change if BTC reaches 50$, or 100K for that matter.

Maciano: I figured that you were NOT really taking D_Diver’s comment seriously. Surely, we are all entitled to our opinions about the direction of BTC, including D_Diver; however, it seems to get to be a bit much when D_Diver seemed to have been chiding of us (maybe even in a patrolizing manner) and attempting to scare (or pimp) some of us into off-site investment(s).

(01-07-2014 09:38 AM)Maciano Wrote:  Also, I agree w/ El Mech abt being careful. Move some BTC to BTC-e, so you can go cash quickly in case of flash crash.

I am o.k. with this idea in theory, yet as many guys have already said, in this thread, that BTC is NOT really behaving like any normal comparable asset class – so we never know exactly when to get out or to get back in. I’ve already fucked up a little in that regard by partially getting out of BTC by putting some money in dollars on BTC-e, and then the market changes direction towards the upward, never to return (so far) to its earlier low price point.

(01-07-2014 10:57 AM)Paul T. Manuel Wrote:  I think there's a constant rate of increase in the money supply until it gets to a certain point and no more. There will be a finite supply of bit coins. This means that the incentive is for people to hoard them, because you'll always be able to buy more in the future with your bit coins than what you can buy now. Thanks to all to join this discussion.

[Mod: Removed spam links from now-banned spammer's message]

Paul:

Yes, BTC is designed to expand the money supply to 21 million BTC until 2140. Right now, we are at 12 million BTC, and by design, every four years, the production of BTC is half of the previous 4 years. In essence, the rate of growth of the BTC supply is fairly small (especially if it were considered a currency rather than a commodity) and causes considerable scarcity (especially if we were to factor in people losing their BTC and other shrinkages of the BTC supply that seem inevitable).

In my thinking the amount of designed BTC expansion is way too small, and causes the BTC value to appreciate way too much to make BTC somewhat unstable…. and too precious (both in its adoption phase, and possibly even long term). I don't really like the word hoarding b/c it sounds so negative - like a BTC hater comment; however, hoarding is probably a pretty accurate descriptor of what seems likely to occur based on the current shortage of supply trajectory of BTC – especially if there were wide adoption of BTC. Hoarding would cause BTC to be an additional store of value.. .that will cause people to further flock to BTC over other assets….

Let's say that BTC expands so much that widespread retailers were to be accepting it, then if a guy spends BTC, he would likely feel the urge to immediately purchase more BTC to replace the spent BTC because he knows that BTC has a tendency to appreciate in value. If people begin to earn incomes (or to be paid) in BTC, and they only deal in BTC, then of course, those people are going to be forced to have to spend their BTC to receive basic necessities of life such as food and shelter - but they still may hold off on making some discretionary purchases knowing that the discretionary purchases could be bought later for fewer BTCs or that some greater and better products could be bought with the same quantity of BTC at a later date. I don’t know if this is a flaw that cannot be fixed because it certainly causes BTC to appreciate in value.

This currency deflationary aspect (increase in value of currency compared with price of goods/services) also creates a work disincentive, on the margins because life savings may be stashed away if there is a certain guarantee of increased in purchasing power. Historically, fiat currency has always been worth less over time, and the only way that it may make some sense to hold fiat currency would be to invest the fiat currency in order to make interest from it.

Let’s just say hypothetically that there are 15 billion BTC valued at $1,000 per BTC, then the market cap for BTC would be $15 Billion. A 15 billion market cap is a drop in the bucket as compared with a variety of other asset classes. Just take, for example, silver, Gold and dollars. Together, those three asset classes hold more than $20 trillion in value (less than a trillion for silver, about 6 trillion for gold and more than 15 trillion for dollars).

2005 report on various market caps for silver, gold, dollar and other assets:
http://silverstockreport.com/email/The_Money_Chart.html

If BTC were to aspire to achieve about a 1 trillion dollar market cap, then BTC would retain only a small fraction of the value of some similar asset classes and it would have to double in value for each of the next six years in order to attain such market cap value.

Let’s project ahead a little bit at a 100% growth per year in order to get BTC at a trillion market cap.

2014: $15 billion ($1,000 per BTC).
2015: $30 billion ($2,000 per BTC).
2016: $60 billion ($4,000 per BTC).
2017: $120 billion ($8,000 per BTC).
2018: $240 billion ($16,000 per BTC).
2019: $480 billion ($32,000 per BTC).
2020: $960 billion ($64,000 per BTC).
2021: $1.92 Trillion ($128,000 per BTC).


Even if BTC were to double in value every year for the next six years, then would it approach a 1 trillion dollar market cap, and at that rate, each BTC would be worth about $64,000 (that is if the supply were about 15 million BTC).

Pretty much the scarcity of BTC causes the potential for ongoing increases in value, even after BTC reaches a respectable market capitalization rate of 1 trillion. I cannot see BTC growing this slowly because if BTC attains a value similar to gold, then it is likely going to take over some of that $6 trillion gold market, much more quickly than 6 years. Even if BTC were to grow at 100% per year for six years, there would be a lot more potential for BTC expansion that would come after the six years which could be greater than 20% per year increase in value, even in the long term.
During the adoption phase and expansion phase of BTC, it is likely that BTC would have to continue to increase in value by at least 100% per year for the next 6-7 years then maybe it would settle down to a more reasonable rate, such as 20% per year until it nears the market cap of gold?

Let’s say that BTC appreciates 100% per year for the next 7 years and then appreciates 20% for the subsequent 7 years. Such an appreciation would look like this:

2014: $15 billion ($1,000 per BTC). (100%)
2015: $30 billion ($2,000 per BTC). (100%)
2016: $60 billion ($4,000 per BTC). (100%)
2017: $120 billion ($8,000 per BTC). (100%)
2018: $240 billion ($16,000 per BTC). (100%)
2019: $480 billion ($32,000 per BTC). (100%)
2020: $960 billion ($64,000 per BTC). (100%)
2021: $1.92 Trillion ($128,000 per BTC). (100%)
2022: $2.304 Trillion ($153,600 per BTC). (20%)
2023: $2.7648 Trillion ($184,320 per BTC). (20%)
2024: $3.3178 Trillion ($221,184 per BTC). (20%)
2025: $3.9813 Trillion ($265,421 per BTC). (20%)
2026: $4.7776 Trillion ($318,505 per BTC). (20%)
2027: $5.331 Trillion ($382,206 per BTC). (20%)
2028: $6.8798 Trillion ($458,647 per BTC). (20%)

In my thinking, a possible way that we get away from BTC appreciating too quickly (and to potentially lessen the hoarding issue) would be to have competing alternative crypto currencies that are also taking and holding some of that value. The direction in which people would flock (and the hoarding potential) remains difficult to project.

If BTC were to become a store of value similar to gold over the next 15 years, then maybe after 2028, BTC could stabilize and appreciate at a rate of less than 10% per year?

In the long run, to me, BTC appreciation seems very potentially unstable, and it is likely that if any BTC appreciation were to occur, such appreciation of value would NOT occur in any steady and/or linear trajectory. We are more likely to get upward and downward bursts in BTC value.

(01-07-2014 02:53 PM)friheten Wrote:  It's a good question. Earlier in this thread I posted that I should have had BTC at the exchange to buy sell and then buy in later. The price was at that point $900 and later it dropped to $500. If I did sell I would almost have doubled my BTC. The previous bubble has looked like this:

$1 - $36 - $2

$36 - $266 - $80

$266 - $1200 - $550

So the next bubble might look something like this

$1200 - $4500 - $2400

However it depends on the news. When we break the ATH I will start following all the online discussions and news.

Friheten:

In some sense, you seem to be a bit more bullish on BTC than me, and I believe the bubble scenario that you outline is certainly a possibility – given the recent past behavior of BTC, the ongoing developments in BTC and what seems to be the current trajectory. I appreciate your describing how you arrived at your thinking and your BTC bubble projections.. that is making a fairly specific projection that may NOT come to being... and the risk of providing any specifics is that the specifics may turn out to be incorrect.

I would like to make one correction to your description of the $266 - $1,200 bubble. There was about a six-hour period on December 18, 2013 that BTC stayed in the $400s, and actually fell to $390 for a moment. During that December 18 period, Fisto bought at $390, and I bought a total of 2.5 BTC at $519, $493, $422, $459 and $517 (wished that I would have bought more BTC, but at the time, I did NOT know where BTC was going, and thought that BTC price could have been going down to $300).

Each of us seems to have our own ways of developing and/or going with our gut feelings, and each of us seems to have BTC investment plans that are somewhat contingent upon how the BTC related news matters evolve – meaning that we may modify our BTC investment trajectory if certain events were to take place.

BTW. The BTC price drop in the last couple of days has been from $995 to $800, as I write (nearly a 20% drop) - and the BTC price seems to be continuing to drop... but who knows? To me, the good BTC news seems to be outweighing the bad, so I do NOT understand the reason for the BTC price drop - except that generally people are still a bit skittish overall about the long term pricing of BTC - accordingly, the overall BTC value is rising faster than its infrastructure and may need to remain in the $500 to $800 range for a little longer? In that regard, I could see BTC prices tittering between $500 and $800 for the next several months.

Jay Juan, how's it hanging?

(01-07-2014 07:04 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Jay Juan, how's it hanging?

Thanks for the personal inquiry. It’s nice to see that you are interested.

As soon as El Mech starts gloating in a sort of "I told you so" manner that a guy should be in dollars, it must be time to buy BTC... That means that BTC is at its bottom. That's a joke.. (kind of), b/c El Mech may be correct this time (the stopped watch theory) that BTC is going down, this time.

Actually, El Mech, NOT to be so direct (b/c none of us knows what the fuck this BTC price is doing, exactly), but it seems that in the last month you were in dollars a couple of times when BTC had fairly significant upward explosions, including this recent four-day run from about $750s to $990s (more than a 30% increases in four days). Now, BTC seems to be back down to around its price from NYE time frame (and you have been out of BTC for this whole time, no?)

Anyhow, it would be a losing argument for me or anyone else participating in this thread to attempt to pin you down into any such 30% or more LOSS IN GAINS that you likely would have experienced over these past several weeks that you have been asserting that BTC prices are falling. We cannot pin you down b/c you are NOT really letting us know specifics about your investment(s) into BTC ahead of time and before the market moves and I do NOT really care if you chose to be in dollars - except for the fact that you feel a kind of need to gloat about falling BTC prices, when they finally come to the falling point.. If you did NOT gloat, then there would be NO need to say anything about whether any guy is losing opportunities by NOT being in BTC. I do NOT sense any need to be right about anything regarding the price of BTC (which I keep repeating).

If my memory serves me, you have been suggesting BTC is going down for more than the past month and finally after nearly 3 weeks of steady upward movement of BTC (from December 21 until January 6), finally, you have a chance to again tell us look, BTC is going down and you should be in dollars..
On December 21, BTC was at $580-ish, so BTC is still up from that price point, and maybe BTC prices will go down below $580 this time? Personally, I am kind of hoping that BTC prices will go down to lower $500s in order that I can buy some more BTC.

On several occasions, I have provided fairly specific details of nearly my whole BTC related portfolio (as my portfolio has been evolving), and yes, when a guy provides that level of specificity, then he becomes vulnerable to "I told you so" suggestions.

I expect that there may be times in which my specific portfolio is going to be down.. and that is part of the possibilities with any risky investment(s) and accordingly my plan has been to be buying BTC while the price is going down.. and gambling that the price will go back up - which we all know that part of any gamble is that the hoped-for result may NOT take place.

By the way, TODAY, since I have been buying as BTC prices have been going down all day, I bought at $880, $837, $814 and $769 (my total buying today, so far, has been .7 BTC). My next buy point is likely to be $730 if BTC price gets to that low today. The quantity of my next BTC purchase would depend upon how quickly the BTC price were to get to that price point, if at all, and if it appears to be going lower. Of course, if the price is going lower, then I will NOT buy at that price point. I would buy at the lower price point.

At the moment, my portfolio has a $768 average BTC price, and accordingly, my portfolio is about 4.2% up (on paper), since within the past 30 minutes, I could have sold at about $807. Anyhow, as I write the current BTC sales price is $791. Nonetheless, it would have been possible, for me to sell within the last 30 minutes at $807, if I would have wanted to sell but I do NOT want to sell. Also, it is possible that BTC will go into the $500s or lower today or this week, then I would be at a loss point (on paper). At this time, I do NOT know whether BTC is going down further than its current price, and I do NOT feel comfortable taking any chance on selling because I do NOT see such sell indicators. If I had wanted to sell, I would have done so, yesterday while the prices were going up. My general approach is to sell while prices are going up, and NOT to sell while they are going down, unless there is a specific reason to abandon ship.

Hopefully that helps.