(12-20-2013 09:15 AM)LÉtranger Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 01:08 PM)Frost Wrote:  2) Bitcoin is a good idea. It is a secure and elegant technological solution to a very old political problem - the ability of strong governments to impose currency debasement on its population - and all of the common arguments against it are complete BS. Deflationary, too volatile, no intrinsic value... I don't think anyone on this board is naive enough to take arguments by economists like Paul Krugman at face value, but I'm willing to go into more detail on these points if necessary.

Please do.

From 1100 to 380 in two weeks. Thats not volatility? And intrinsic value? At least with the tulips, you had a nice flower to put in you jacket pocket.

And back up to 700. You're a trader right? This should be a dream come true for you.

(12-20-2013 09:17 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(12-20-2013 09:15 AM)LÉtranger Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 01:08 PM)Frost Wrote:  2) Bitcoin is a good idea. It is a secure and elegant technological solution to a very old political problem - the ability of strong governments to impose currency debasement on its population - and all of the common arguments against it are complete BS. Deflationary, too volatile, no intrinsic value... I don't think anyone on this board is naive enough to take arguments by economists like Paul Krugman at face value, but I'm willing to go into more detail on these points if necessary.

Please do.

From 1100 to 380 in two weeks. Thats not volatility? And intrinsic value? At least with the tulips, you had a nice flower to put in you jacket pocket.

And back up to 700. You're a trader right? This should be a dream come true for you.

Well that adds to my volatility point.

For trading, fees are surprisingly quite high when you want to cash-in.

Still, I did double my money and more, with a margin short from approx 1000$ with bitfinex, just for the heck of it. But I wont do it again.

What exchange are y'all using to buy ?

(12-20-2013 09:34 AM)obrero Wrote:  What exchange are y'all using to buy ?

I use Coinbase for initially buying BTC with dollars through my bank BOA.

I have used localbitcoins to get some BTC quickly with cash.

I exchange back and forth from BTC to dollars (or alt cryptos) and back to BTC or dollars on BTC e.

Others?

Only used LocalBitcoins to buy from people over bank wire.

I have used BTC-E to trade into litecoin.

I use Bitonic.nl (Dutch service that makes deposits with a national variant of PayPal possible) & BTC-e.com. Cryptsy (very shitty & unreliable) & BTER.com for trading altcoins.

Probably many other countries have their own variants of services like Bitonic or BitInstant.

I'd use localbitcoins if it was necessary -- you can buy from someone in person: Cash <=> BTC.

Pants,

Do you daytrade w/ some coins?

Some of us should coordinate a little, for tipping smart moves & tips

Delete

I haven´t done it so far. But after I´ve seen two bubbles, I think at least I have the experience to start recognizing my own thought during bubbles and crashes.

Thinking of buying my self in with hard earned cash for trading. If I just start trading my return I´m read I´ll soon be careless. Then I can see after 3 months if I am actually making money compared to what I just leave standing still.

I can't figure out what the hell the Chinese are doing.

Anybody hear any new news??? If nothing changes, then my guess is BTC China will eventually announce that it is closing and then the bottom will really fall out of the market. Wouldn't be surprised if it falls to the $200-$300 range and then stabilizes at $500-$600 by early next year.

This could get ugly. I'm not sure when to step in.

Pants,

I've been doing some this week, already earned some coins. Big dips not counted, because these are atypical events. You basicly need what El-Mech said. (Fiatleak, Bitcoinity, BTC-e + trollbox)

I'd add bitcoincharts.com in combination w/ bitcoinity, select: 1 day, candlestick, weighted moving average & RSI. This way you can see pretty when the mood in the market starts changing -- when you should sell (fiat) or hold coins.

Works for me.

TP,

It could move either way. BTC China is not closing, nor are other Chinese exchanges. They just can't do bank transfer anymore. That's bad, but you have to realize that this A) what bitcoin was designed for, B) people are still anxious for bitcoin in China & C) rest of the world is awakening too.

But, you're right, end of january, you better be careful.

The hammer has already fallen on china. I really don´t think btcchina will drop to 200-300 if they announce a closure.

As I mentioned earlier it won´t drop to far away from the rest of the rest of the, it will drop to a level below the rest of the market, and arbitragers will buy up the cheaper Chinese coins and sell them elsewhere. The price difference includes fees and risk for the arbitragers.

P.S. This is a site with really good charts. Been monitoring the carnage on this site:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/btcchina/btccny

I hope you guys were holding in USD

What I find fascinating (and admirable a little bit) is that some people are on the other end of the trades and actually buying. This isn't really like a commodity where you can sort of tie it to economic reasoning (i.e. economy getting better people buying oil - or rain damage destroyed crops). It isn't really a traditional currency that can be tied to a country either.

Granted, I know even a tiny sale can set a price, but still it is interesting that people are buying. If you cut out the people who made a butt load of money already off BTC and they are just messing around with play money etc and just focus on the new people looking at it for investment (more like speculative reasons) what makes them pull the trigger? I know this is going into psychology and there are plenty of books written about investing, gambling psychology. I get some are averaging down costs, I get some are just having fun, some just have a giant ego and think they are never wrong (we have all been there).

But with an unstable market, just fascinated that people will bet money to go long. I am not celebrating the pain anyone is experiencing, or calling anyone out.

Good luck to everyone.

How long you been in USD now mech?

(12-20-2013 03:45 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I hope you guys were holding in USD

From what time frame should a guy hold dollars, after it already dropped? Did we know it was going to drop? I certainly did NOT.

In this regard, BTC dropped $100 in the last hour from $700 to $600. Now it is back up to $640. How far down is it going to go? If a guy were hanging on to dollars since the price was at $390 two days ago, he could have missed nearly 85% profits, if he had cashed out at $720, yesterday. A guy wouldn't have gotten that kind of return by holding dollars.

There's a lot of ways to go wrong with the timing.

I'm kind of with Pants on this regarding the floor, at this point, being higher than $300... b/c a certain amount of cashing in and post news volatility has already occurred. But I would NOT put it passed BTC to go down into the lower $400s and bounce back up into the $600s..

it's crazy out there!!

Also, at this point, I'm NOT even sure that it is going to drop below $600. I have been waiting to buy a little more BTC at $590, but it did NOT get to that point. Sure, I continue to guess about this moving target, too.

(12-20-2013 04:12 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  What I find fascinating (and admirable a little bit) is that some people are on the other end of the trades and actually buying. This isn't really like a commodity where you can sort of tie it to economic reasoning (i.e. economy getting better people buying oil - or rain damage destroyed crops). It isn't really a traditional currency that can be tied to a country either.

Granted, I know even a tiny sale can set a price, but still it is interesting that people are buying. If you cut out the people who made a butt load of money already off BTC and they are just messing around with play money etc and just focus on the new people looking at it for investment (more like speculative reasons) what makes them pull the trigger? I know this is going into psychology and there are plenty of books written about investing, gambling psychology. I get some are averaging down costs, I get some are just having fun, some just have a giant ego and think they are never wrong (we have all been there).

But with an unstable market, just fascinated that people will bet money to go long. I am not celebrating the pain anyone is experiencing, or calling anyone out.

Good luck to everyone.

My guess is there are two camps of investors in bitcoin:

1) Speculators. They want to make money off the volatility in bitcoin. The large swings bitcoin has are a perfect way to make lots of money (along with lots of risk).

2) The true believers. These people are investing in bitcoin for the long haul because they believe in it like the gospel. They don't care what the price is of bitcoin and will gladly "go down with the ship" if need be.

As for "intrinsic value" of bitcoin and the ability to analyze it using solid technical data, well that will only happen once (if?) bitcoin becomes a payment network because then you can value it based on what percent of commerce and/or money is transferred on the network.

For instance, you could value it based on how much of the remittance industry is takes over from the likes of Western Union, MoneyGram, etc...and/or you could value it based on how much commerce is conducted by the network if bitcoin comes to replace services like PayPal.

Of course, for this to happen, bitcoin would have to become much, much less volatile than it is now. My guess is it would need to get to a point where the swings in daily value are less than +/-1%. I am not sure this is possible, but that doesn't mean that some other crypto-currency will not solve the volatility problem.

(12-20-2013 04:12 PM)pants Wrote:  How long you been in USD now mech?

Since I sold NVC or whatever. Fontas said we will never see BTC below 420 in 14 and 15 I'm not so sure but I'm not going to lose enough money to buy a new car while I'm sleeping so I'm holding USD only and making controlled hits.

(12-20-2013 05:14 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(12-20-2013 04:12 PM)pants Wrote:  How long you been in USD now mech?

Since I sold NVC or whatever. Fontas said we will never see BTC below 420 in 14 and 15 I'm not so sure but I'm not going to lose enough money to buy a new car while I'm sleeping so I'm holding USD only and making controlled hits.

We are still in 13, and we saw BTC hit $390, long enough for Fisto to buy it (Like a blip on the radar, that may or may NOT return). BTC remained in the 400s for about 6 hours on that day. It may or may NOT get back in the 400s - there are quite a few shoes that could drop in the next couple of weeks and even into 2014... If we can get into 15 with BTC still being quasi-legal, there may be more stability by that time, but who knows.. too many unknowns, at this point to project that far ahead.

(12-20-2013 05:34 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(12-20-2013 05:14 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(12-20-2013 04:12 PM)pants Wrote:  How long you been in USD now mech?

Since I sold NVC or whatever. Fontas said we will never see BTC below 420 in 14 and 15 I'm not so sure but I'm not going to lose enough money to buy a new car while I'm sleeping so I'm holding USD only and making controlled hits.

We are still in 13, and we saw BTC hit $390, long enough for Fisto to buy it (Like a blip on the radar, that may or may NOT return). BTC remained in the 400s for about 6 hours on that day. It may or may NOT get back in the 400s - there are quite a few shoes that could drop in the next couple of weeks and even into 2014... If we can get into 15 with BTC still being quasi-legal, there may be more stability by that time, but who knows.. too many unknowns, at this point to project that far ahead.

Christmas+New year+ Chinese new year+ BTC China fucked to me = Crash time.

I would trade, make a few bucks and hold USD

At some point the Chinese will panic and go "all in" that will be our main REAL crash the will climb back up slow until India gets on board the the real fun begins.. We here at the RVF have experience with IRT antics so we'll be fine.

(12-20-2013 05:39 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Christmas+New year+ Chinese new year+ BTC China fucked to me = Crash time.

I would trade, make a few bucks and hold USD

That give me CLEAR direction. Graci..... hehehehe

(12-20-2013 06:07 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(12-20-2013 05:39 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Christmas+New year+ Chinese new year+ BTC China fucked to me = Crash time.

I would trade, make a few bucks and hold USD

That give me CLEAR direction. Graci..... hehehehe

How much more clear do you need? Watch the trollbox all these dudes are emotional and crazy.

watch GOX for panic selling