(12-18-2013 07:53 PM)portofmanteau Wrote:  

(12-18-2013 07:32 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Even though you directed this question at Manteau, i believe that at the moment NONE of the alternative cryptos add up to the value of BTC - b/c BTC has been building a larger network and BTC is the main game in town.

The other currencies are largely coat tailing on BTC, and surely another alternative currency could take over as dominant.. but we are NOT there at this time.

Therefore, BTC is the main game in town, and if momentum shifts to another currency, then we may want to shift once we see that momentum... hopefully, in front of the crowd.

That's basically it - the other cryptos more or less track the BTC price, and the most valuable thing about these cryptos, as was pointed out before, is the network - so basically you just want to ride the one with the largest circulation, because it's going to be the most useful. The other ones are in a more speculative stage, and one of them might take off - I have been converting my BTC to LTC as well, in case LTC shoots up to 1/4 of BTC's price, as a lot of people seem to think, and becomes the accepted secondary currency. In general though there will be one currency to rule them all - BTC is certainly not the best one, but I'm betting that it's the "Facebook" - the one with a circulation large enough, and enough hype around its name, that any competitors face too much of an uphill battle to gain serious traction. Worth noting that cryptos are very similar to social networks in this way - they're only worth their network. No use holding one that no stores you know accept and no one cares to trade. Remains to be seen whether BTC turns out to be the myspace rather than the facebook, it's relatively early days but these things do move quickly and bitcoin has the best hype factor and by far largest market cap.

Reason to bet against it - it technically is pretty shitty. It takes an hour or more to do a transfer, compare this to credit cards which transact in seconds - this could work for online transactions and as a replacement for wires/international wires, but you're obviously not going to wait an hour in a store for your fucking payment to clear.

Though there are various user friendly difficulties that make BTC use frustrating, I do have the sense that the speed of payment issue will improve with innovations - even potentially the assistance of another crypto currency like ripple ... or some other means to speed up transactions... such as having trusted networks.

JMHO viewing the charts, MAJOR support for BTC is at about $500. if it drops BELOW this amount then BTC could crater completely

it's at 505-515 now...

http://preev.com/

Do you guys want to pump and dump an alt coin on btc-e tonight? Better %! NVC?

Still in USD el machanico? Or NVC?

NVC slowly pulling out though.

How are you going to pump to dump? Are the volumes low enough for just a couple people to manipulate the prices?

(12-19-2013 08:03 AM)AntiTrace Wrote:  How are you going to pump to dump? Are the volumes low enough for just a couple people to manipulate the prices?

I'm not sure. I just like the words pump and dump. Those altcoins swing with btc so why not?

I feel the crash is coming at any moment. right?

IN the last 12 hours we had a crash from $500 to $670, and about $100 of that upward crash was in the past 3 hours. Now we are back down to $630 - Woops, i spoke too soon, as I type, back up to $650... WTF? I'm NOT holding my breath on any crash b/c we cannot really predict this.

(12-19-2013 08:15 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  

(12-19-2013 08:03 AM)AntiTrace Wrote:  How are you going to pump to dump? Are the volumes low enough for just a couple people to manipulate the prices?

I'm not sure. I just like the words pump and dump. Those altcoins swing with btc so why not?

There seem to be way too many small trades for any one person to be manipulating the market.. even though theoretically this one person manipulation theory is possible. This one person or small group of people manipulating is some kind of mainstream propaganda in my thinking.


And, we are really speculating, if we were to throw our assets into one of the alt coins... who knows which way any one of them is going at any moment..? sometimes better returns than BTC and sometimes NOT.

Now there is going to be luck with the alt coin strategy, and I cannot see how anyone could meaningfully advise on that - except possibly some kind of diversification - rather than balls to the walls moving of assets around. In my thinking most guys are gonna lose with that balls to the walls in alt coin strategy, unless extremely lucky.

(12-19-2013 08:03 AM)AntiTrace Wrote:  How are you going to pump to dump? Are the volumes low enough for just a couple people to manipulate the prices?

By the way, I have a current snapshot of about the past 15 hours on fiatleaks, and that snapshot shows the most trades being done in Chinese Yuan and second place is US Dollars (by about half). In my thinking if there were manipulation coming from one or a small group, that would probably come in US dollars rather than Yuan - but the dollar market is likely too consistent for manipulation. In other words, if there were some manipulation going on any given day, then it would likely show up in the volume at particular moments.

From other charts, we do see that volume of trade does go up drastically during times of extreme volatility - though that seems logically explained by herd mentality theory, rather than manipulation theory, right?

I'm just postulating b/c surely it is possible to have some manipulation going on b/c BTC is quite small as compared with almost any other currency that trades trillions a day, and at most BTC may get half a billion in trade in a day.. ... IN any event in my thinking, manipulation still does NOT seem to be a plausible explanation for what is going on with the BTC price.

And, no one in this thread has really said yet what this fiatleaks data means. Does it show just one side of the ledger currency going into BTC, without showing currency going out of BTC? B/c if you look at the chart, it just shows positives (+)s. It does NOT show (-)s. It would be great if some guy provided some insight on explaining the data on fiatleaks.

^ Ok this is what I'm having a problem with. How are they converting Yuan? The Government said they can not. Does Chinas numbers here represent SELL and convert back to Yuan???

(12-19-2013 09:41 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  ^ Ok this is what I'm having a problem with. How are they converting Yuan? The Government said they can not. Does Chinas numbers here represent SELL and convert back to Yuan???

Actually was that inability to convert from BTC to Yuan effective immediately?

I thought that there was some phasing in of the prohibitions that the theory was that the chinese would be taking their money out of BTC until the end of January b/c thereafter the conversion from BTC to Yuan would become more impeded after the end of January.

Now, if there were any manipulation, it could be that the Chinese scare was a form of manipulation in order to get the price of BTC to come down in order that more Chinese could buy into BTC at a lower price... who knows? I really cannot see Chinese regulating BTC out of existence in their neck of the woods... b/c in the end the chinese wants to have vehicles outside of the dollar.. which includes gold and BTC

Fiatleak is both SELL and BUY.

The ‘leak’ idea comes from the idea that part of fiat money’s purpose, i.e. currency, is leaking to bitcoin. There’s a transfer of value from one medium of exchange to another.

Of course, high activity after bad news, probably signals sells. So, low activity would actually be pretty strange.

(12-19-2013 09:55 AM)Maciano Wrote:  Fiatleak is both SELL and BUY.

The ‘leak’ idea comes from the idea that part of fiat money’s purpose, i.e. currency, is leaking to bitcoin. There’s a transfer of value from one medium of exchange to another.

Of course, high activity after bad news, probably signals sells. So, low activity would actually be pretty strange.

So they're cashing out. If they cannot convert they have to be selling yet the price is going up all the time WTF?????

Fiatleak:

You see one coin moving from USD up to USA. This is just a trade that has been done in USD/BTC. Might be on mtgox, and the nationality of the trader has nothing to do with it. So seeing the coin move towards USA is a bit misleading.

The name fiatleak is also misleading. You don´t really see value leaking in from fiat to crypto. The only way you can see that is when the price is rising, as crypto "takes" value from other currencies.


Am I the only one who is surprised about the price? Thought China was such a huge player that the price would fall 300ish. I actually called my bitcoin "broker" and told him I wanted out at 530, he could not make a deal until he saw the coins in wallet cause to many had screwed him over lately. Me being at work I had no chance doing the transfer, and by the time I got home it was at 630. Lucky!

(12-19-2013 09:59 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  So they're cashing out. If they cannot convert they have to be selling yet the price is going up all the time WTF?????

My understanding, Chinese are not allowed to deposit money into exchanges, but they are allowed to cash out. This dose not indicate that they will sell at any price and it will go to zero. There´s probably a lot of international arbitragers who compete on the arbitrage between china and the rest of the world who will pick it up long before zero.

Just picked this up off of wired about the FBI's stash of bit coin

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/201...d=15955134

China dumped 24 hours ago lets see if they repeat

(12-19-2013 12:22 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  China dumped 24 hours ago lets see if they repeat

So, WE (that's the Royal WE), are projecting that there could be another BTC price "crash?"

Will that be a crash UP or a crash DOWN?

I have some of my assets on BTC - e in dollars (about $650), just itching for an opportunity to inject back into BTC. I would love for a crash DOWN that would allow me to inject those dollars in the lower 500s for BTC or I would be happier for the 400s - wishful if we were going to get down to $390 again.... though anything remains feasible, as we saw a couple days ago. If we get a crash UP, then I will be left holding those dollars.

I accumulated those dollars when I was playing the ups and downs pretty well on BTC - e, and I cashed most of those dollars out in the mid-$500s HOPING for another down, that never came (so far).

If I were to recoup that $650 now into BTC, b/c of an anticipated crash UP, then I would be out about $100, but if I hang onto those dollars and the crash UP occurs and does NOT come back down, then I would be out even more if I buy back into BTC at a higher price.

Unless someone convinces me otherwise, I am just going to hang onto the dollars and hope for a crash DOWN. What are the odds? 50/50?

BTW - At the moment, BTC is up 20% for the 24 hour period; however, DogeCoin is up 388%. Should have bought DogeCoin.. as the coin de jour.


OR BetaCoin - is UP 101%. None of us would want to own BetaCoin, would we?

I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. Maybe it wont.

(12-19-2013 02:30 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop. Maybe it wont.

According to the Macd theory that banned member Pyre was promoting... it looks like we are IN for a price DROP in BTC.

But WTF do I know?

According to the 5-day chart that I just copied and attached, all I see is that the MACD bar is meeting with pink, which seems to imply drop in prices is on the horizon. Any thoughts?



http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstamp...zi1gMACDzv

BTC has recovered to about $675

China selling and Europe and US buying now? Btcchina is cheapest at least

(12-19-2013 10:24 PM)friheten Wrote:  China selling and Europe and US buying now? Btcchina is cheapest at least

From where do you get that information about who is buying and who is selling? All I see is that the price is remaining pretty flat. And, the theory is that if there are more sellers than buyers, then the price will drop.

(12-19-2013 12:09 PM)birdrussell Wrote:  Just picked this up off of wired about the FBI's stash of bit coin

http://www.wired.com/wiredenterprise/201...d=15955134

Got to love it The F-Phooking-BI is sitting on $120+ Million worth of Silk Road's SEIZED Bit Coins - wonder how many FBIers are selling off small lots of bit coins to raise capital to get beyond sequestration for their 2014 budget - this is freaking hilarious if it was not such a freaking scheme...

The FBI holds the world largest wallets of Bit Coins - but there is still no way the price can be manipulated - wait till they let the NSA and CIA in on this action - where is Snowden when they need him!!!!

(12-18-2013 01:08 PM)Frost Wrote:  2) Bitcoin is a good idea. It is a secure and elegant technological solution to a very old political problem - the ability of strong governments to impose currency debasement on its population - and all of the common arguments against it are complete BS. Deflationary, too volatile, no intrinsic value... I don't think anyone on this board is naive enough to take arguments by economists like Paul Krugman at face value, but I'm willing to go into more detail on these points if necessary.

Please do.

From 1100 to 380 in two weeks. Thats not volatility? And intrinsic value? At least with the tulips, you had a nice flower to put in you jacket pocket.