Post: #1

This is an article I wrote for ROK around December. It was rejected.
As requested by @Leonard D Neubache, I provide it here:


The Yemen War was already covered on this website by my colleague Quintus Curtius twice (1, 2).
I assume that most ROK readers have very little interest in this poor country, much alone in a conflict which brought unimaginable suffering to the population there,
including a Cholera epidemic with a death toll of over 2000.

This war is actually another part of the great proxy war. Most of the attention goes to Syria and Iraq.
In the case of Yemen we see the same players (with a slightly different cast) and the same plot, happening all over again.

Iran's use of Proxies
Iran has been using plausible deniability for decades now. They use the Hamas in Gaza strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon and now the Houthis in Yemen.
Iran, based on their proxies experience have encouraged their Houthi allies to launch missiles on Saudi Arabia. Those missiles were Iranian.
If your country is hit by missiles, there is no way you are going to stop fighting. Recent history has shown again and again that those types of attack usually encourage war rather than peace (WW2, Vietnam, Iran-Iraq war, Second Lebanon war and others).


Translation: God is the greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A curse upon Jews, Victory to Islam. As an Israeli Jew I'm not ofended

The Houthis use the tactic of escalating (by missiles) and then demanding to stop retribution afterwards. Don't think that the Saudis are the good guys here, they have their fare share of evil deeds.
The more interesting thing is the Iranian strategy - Using one country to influence others. It is able to arm, guide and manage proxies for a common goal, thus hurting its enemies.

The missiles escalation
Firing the missile on Riyadh was not the first time.  Late July saw a missile being fired at the holy city of Mecca.
That is a very big deal, as that city is considered the holiest muslim city.
The Houthis reputation was damaged bad since it was only a couple of days before the Hajj (annual Islamic pilgrimage) began. This may be tied to the tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia over the Hajj.


Yep, it's a Photoshop job. Yemeni press as part of the propaganda campaign

The Houthis were not only targeting population, but also strategic assets. A few days before the missile launch on Mecca, a missile was fired on Yanbu.
That is where Aramco (Saudi oil company) has its main oil refinery facilities.  Talk about literally lighting the fire. Apart from that, the Houthis have threatened to launch missiles at UAE and have used short range missiles and suicide boats to hit UAE ships. 
Meanwhile Saudi Arabia does not sit by idle. They have launched their next attack on Sana (Yemen's capital).

The Russian angle
Ali Abduallah Saleh, the former president of North Yemen was (and still is) pro-Russian. Russia has shown a good understanding of politics in the Middle-East recently, and in the past.
Unlike in Syria, the Russian interest is less direct. Russia does not seem to want to put forces there, but it has a direct channel to Iran, Saleh and the Houthis. A recent article suggests (indirectly) that the Russian interest is to keep the Saudi bleeding. That seems reasonable with what is known of the Russian doctrine.
Saudi has sponsored the Chechen rebels, and the Russian have a very long memory. Remember that revenge is a dish best served cold.

The funny thing is that Iran and Russia are actually trying to negotiate some sort of truce between the Yemenite parties, but UAE is standing in the way. Dubai (part of the UAE) suggested Salah to have peace - with the Saudis.
Saudis on their part make sure not to bomb him. This is classic Divide and Conquer, because Saleh is a major player. If he and his forces step out, the Houthis may break down under the pressure.
However, this requires crafty diplomacy and a lot of hidden negotiations.



What's next
[This was written in December 2017. I wasn't that off]
The Middle East is still volatile, even at its edge.
Yemen has been a center of conflict in the past. It has a strategic location, yet it is one of the poorest countries in the world.
My guess? It will be years until parties will decide to stop, because they have bled themselves to death. This will make the country a wasteland.

Post: #2

Cheers, although RIP guys trying to view it on mobile. Gotta resize those images.

p.s. Do you think Russia is really acting out of vengeance for the Chechen rebel funding? Putin strikes me as more of a pragmatist, and although there is a limited pragmatism in making an example out of someone it seems a bit of a long stretch at this point.

Post: #3

Good point.
The Russians are pragmatists, yet have a way of getting back at someone hurting them.
Also, remember that there is also oil on the table - both are competing/cooperating on oil price.

Post: #4

Iran attacking Saudi is a bad thing now?

Post: #5

(05-12-2018 01:30 PM)nomadbrah Wrote:  Iran attacking Saudi is a bad thing now?

Iran messing up the ME area is a bad thing in the long run. This is a regime which is always pushing boundary and has shown again and again that it tolerates no one.
As I stated:

(05-12-2018 02:01 AM)TheMaleBrain Wrote:  Don't think that the Saudis are the good guys here, they have their fare share of evil deeds.

So from my opinion, and having skin in the game the answer is YES.

Post: #6

^What are you talking about "tolerating no one". Iran hasn't attacked anyone in hundreds of years.

Post: #7

The article lacks a good deal of information, like WHO are the Houties, WHY are they fighting, WHO are the local players. Also, it is know that all the mayor players in the zone use proxies, be Iran, Saudi Arabia or Israel. And blaming Iran of destabilizing the area is a bit hipocrital coming from an israeli.

What is more interesting about the Yemeni conflict is the almost total inoperance of the Saudi army, and its increasing reliance in merc troops, especially sudanese (that at least a good number will retreat) and unoccupied ex-paramilitary south american workforce.

Post: #8

(05-12-2018 03:34 PM)nomadbrah Wrote:  ^What are you talking about "tolerating no one". Iran hasn't attacked anyone in hundreds of years.

That's funny.
They wage proxy wars since the 1980s

Post: #9

(05-12-2018 06:54 PM)Mekorig Wrote:  The article lacks a good deal of information, like WHO are the Houties, WHY are they fighting, WHO are the local players. Also, it is know that all the mayor players in the zone use proxies, be Iran, Saudi Arabia or Israel. And blaming Iran of destabilizing the area is a bit hipocrital coming from an israeli.

What is more interesting about the Yemeni conflict is the almost total inoperance of the Saudi army, and its increasing reliance in merc troops, especially sudanese (that at least a good number will retreat) and unoccupied ex-paramilitary south american workforce.

Agreed, to some extent.
However, this goes back to an old argument of what are the players up to. I'm biased, as I repeatedly stated in other threads.

Post: #10

Honestly after five decades of seeing atrocious news about the Middle East on a daily fucking basis:



I say we build a virtual and physical wall around the Middle East and let them duke it out amongst themselves.

Post: #11

Israel playing the victim again fearing the retaliation for the Syrian strike of the Iranian positions.

Haaretz Wrote:Israel Braces for Iranian Retaliation for Syria Strike – but War Isn’t Inevitable
There could be a lull before Lebanon's May 6 election and the Americans' May 12 decision on the Iranian nuclear deal, but revenge could come from Lebanon, Syria, Iran or further afield
Haaretz

Post: #12

(05-13-2018 07:04 AM)blck Wrote:  

Israel playing the victim again fearing the retaliation for the Syrian strike of the Iranian positions.

Haaretz Wrote:Israel Braces for Iranian Retaliation for Syria Strike – but War Isn’t Inevitable
There could be a lull before Lebanon's May 6 election and the Americans' May 12 decision on the Iranian nuclear deal, but revenge could come from Lebanon, Syria, Iran or further afield
Haaretz

IF YOU GO TO SLEEP WITH AN ITCHY BUTTHOLE, DON'T BE SURPRISED, WHEN YOU WAKE UP, TO HAVE STINKY FINGERS

Quoting the lefties newspaper in Israel on RVF as support of a point - Priceless

Post: #13

   


Everything you say is true, but zoom up a bit and you can see Iran’s strategy that led to these tactics.

Saudi oil has to get on a tanker be be valuable. That gives it three exits - the Persian gulf, the Suez, and sailing past Yemen.

If hostilities break, everyone knows the Iranians can shut down the Persian gulf. (Side note - most Saudi oil is on the eastern half of the country). The Saudis have invested in Red Sea pipelines, but even then the most direct route to China and India is past Yemen.

In the game of checkers, the Iranians having a force that could stop this route changes the game a lot. Even If the Iranians/ Houthis can’t win, the Saudis can’t NOT play either - making your entire wartime economy dependent on the Suez/Egyptians would be economic suicide.


For fun - Saudi conquest porn:

A Glimpse of a Crown Prince’s Dream? Saudi Arabia Invades Iran in CGI

Post: #14

(05-13-2018 09:00 AM)TheMaleBrain Wrote:  Quoting the lefties newspaper in Israel on RVF as support of a point - Priceless

That's all you can do ? Attacking the sources ?
If you have nothing else to complain about don't embarrass yourself further.

Post: #15

(05-13-2018 12:46 PM)blck Wrote:  

(05-13-2018 09:00 AM)TheMaleBrain Wrote:  Quoting the lefties newspaper in Israel on RVF as support of a point - Priceless

That's all you can do ? Attacking the sources ?
If you have nothing else to complain about don't embarrass yourself further.

I'll bite:
Israel is not "plating the victim". Israel was clear, multiple times, that Iran being inside Syria and threatening Israels borders is unbearable (The Iranian actions are just "not news" around the world, but are news in Israel). That message was delivered both in diplomatic channels as well as hidden ones.
Israel is fighting Iran's proxies (and sometimes directly) because Iran has shown repeatedly through words and action that it intends not erase us. The only course of option here is to fight, whenever you can. One uses all leverages of influence (including Putin, who is more to the Iranian side than that of Israel).

Also
If one uses an unreliable source, then yes - You attack the source.

Post: #16

Why cant they all just get along? They have all the money in the world? What is the beef about?

Post: #17

(05-13-2018 12:24 PM)Nolecbo Wrote:  For fun - Saudi conquest porn:

A Glimpse of a Crown Prince’s Dream? Saudi Arabia Invades Iran in CGI

I don't remember this one coming out in Australia, but that's probably because my mum didn't let me buy violent games for my N64.

Post: #18

I'm not convinced that the Yemen issues and the Saudi governments preoccupation with them have anything to to with Iran.

Background:

Yemen is a beautiful country with great salmon fishing, and quaint European architecture looking villages located seaside or up in scenic mountains.

The problem with Yemen? Two problems. The first problem is the Yemeni people who are a mixed race people that genetically is about 33% Arab, 33% middle eastern Jewish, and 33% Somali. That's an awful mix of tribal, paranoid, high testosterone, and low impulse control traits.

The second problem, is that Yemen is located East of the Sahara Desert and it never rains there except when a monsoon/hurricane hits. When this doesn't happen for a while, a Malthusian civil war over resources breaks out and spills into Saudi Arabia as armed marading bands of refugees attempt to seize precious water and other resources from their neighbors.

The Saudi Kings are preoccupied with Yemen and Yemeni politics, and they are right to be worried, as Yemen proves to be a very strong destabilizing force in the region, when the weather doesn't cooperate. The USA buys Saudi support by aiding their meddling. There is no deep Iran conspiracy needed to explain the motives and actions of the players in the region.

Post: #19

(05-16-2018 02:39 AM)Pride male Wrote:  Why cant they all just get along? They have all the money in the world? What is the beef about?

I'll refer you to an older thread of mine. I hope it will give you some of the answers.