Post: #126

A couple more FTSE buys today:

Tate & Lyle 676p (expecting dividends to rise long term as benefits from sugar free products and post brexit trade)
Mulberry 1020p (expecting to do well in Asian market over next decade and bought the minimum to get 20% discount)

Post: #127

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) looks good at $345.

In 2 years everyone will have forgotten the current Norovirus scare.

Post: #128

(07-23-2017 04:48 AM)BB1 Wrote:  Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) looks good at $345.

In 2 years everyone will have forgotten the current Norovirus scare.

Not arguing that Chipotle (CMG) isn't a good buy at $345, but I personally think it is going to drop even further. If they miss earnings, which are reported tomorrow it'll take another dip. Also they are involved in a class action lawsuit with some 10,000 employees of due overtime pay. Regardless of how the lawsuit plays out it's still bad publicity at a time when their stock has already dropped 30% in 2 months.

Post: #129

Heads up for those following Royal Dutch Shell (as I have been): “Shell shuts down most of Netherlands refinery due to fire.” The fire went from late-Saturday to early-Sunday morning. Could be some serious damage, although further information is hard to come by at the moment.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/0bc6aec2-219...st-of.html

Immediate assessments of the damage to the Pernis refinery are unknown, but shutting down “Europe’s largest refinery” will likely have a negative effect on Shell’s bottom line and thus their stock price (temporary loss of refining capacity to the tune of 400,000 bbl/d), not to mention it could ripple through the oil markets and cause an immediate, short-term glut of crude in Europe and potentially a drop in crude prices depending on the anticipated duration of the shutdown.

I’ll be watching news reports closely and in particular looking for estimates of damage and the shutdown’s duration. I was planning on snatching up some RDS-A on Monday anyways at ~$55.50 as a hedge against Venezuelan collapse or extraordinary sanctions against the nation, now I’m looking for a bargain at a few dollars less (not to mention ex-div. is just a few days away on August 9 for $0.94/share after an explosive earnings report last week).

I'm having trouble figuring out how to attach photos here, but there are photos of the fire and gas "flares" here: https://www.yahoo.com/news/fire-halts-pa...57275.html

and here: http://royaldutchshellplc.com/2017/07/30...inguished/

Post: #130

^
Probably a good short here.

Post: #131

I’m so confused. What the heck happened with Shell today? They were up before the opening bell in pre-trading and stayed up the whole day in spite of a downward trend in the price of crude for most of the day (which has since recovered). I am baffled at why this would be.

To recap, Shell closed on Friday at $55.74 after a great week with a stout earnings report. Then there’s the Pernis refinery fire and subsequent shutdown over the weekend with little more information provided except that it will at least be days before it’s up and running again. Apparently Europeans were scrambling to pay a premium for their diesel and jet fuel due to the refinery shutdown.

The market responds today by bumping Shell’s stock immediately by $0.50 at opening and steadily sending it upward for the rest of the day (closing at $56.53, up $0.79 or 1.42%). By comparison with their peers, Exxon Mobil ended the day up $0.44 (+0.55%) and Chevron ended the day up $1.07 (+0.99%). From 9:30 to 4:00, WTI rose from $49.53 to $50.24 (up $0.71, or +1.43%).

Other relevant information is that Shell announced over the weekend that it would be laying off 400 Dutch employees (the same report states that Shell employs 92,000 worldwide). Even if this information could cause a bump in Shells stock price, I find it hard to believe that it would carry the day in the face of the refinery shutdown.

Another thing I’ve considered: perhaps Shell has some sort of insurance that would reimburse them for lost revenue during the refinery shutdown, thus allowing them to take it in stride while selling off stocks of diesel, jet fuel and other refined products at the premium now being paid in Europe. I could see this as being a possible explanation, but it’s just speculation on my part.

When I posed the scenario to my dad, he just laughed and said the markets are rigged.

Does anyone have a good explanation for what the heck happened? I was ready to pull the trigger on Shell today and was left shaking my head in disappointment, now I’m still without my desired position.

Post: #132

(04-25-2017 06:50 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 10:17 AM)Moreless Wrote:  Anyone have thoughts on SHOP ticker?

Shopify is an amazing company. I am up well over 100% on it now.
I will increase my holding on any decent pullback this year.

Here is their 2015 IPO roadshow video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYl8iwD-...e=youtu.be

An article on their culture :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...e21734931/

Shopify just posted another great quarter (Revenue Grows 75% Year on Year) and hit an all time high.

Merchant adoption is accelerating, and they have no real competition.

I hope some of you are profiting handsomely from this incredible growth story.

More info :

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/16902083-sho...al-results

Post: #133

(07-31-2017 07:31 PM)Jeeves Wrote:  I’m so confused. What the heck happened with Shell today? They were up before the opening bell in pre-trading and stayed up the whole day in spite of a downward trend in the price of crude for most of the day (which has since recovered). I am baffled at why this would be.

To recap, Shell closed on Friday at $55.74 after a great week with a stout earnings report. Then there’s the Pernis refinery fire and subsequent shutdown over the weekend with little more information provided except that it will at least be days before it’s up and running again. Apparently Europeans were scrambling to pay a premium for their diesel and jet fuel due to the refinery shutdown.

The market responds today by bumping Shell’s stock immediately by $0.50 at opening and steadily sending it upward for the rest of the day (closing at $56.53, up $0.79 or 1.42%). By comparison with their peers, Exxon Mobil ended the day up $0.44 (+0.55%) and Chevron ended the day up $1.07 (+0.99%). From 9:30 to 4:00, WTI rose from $49.53 to $50.24 (up $0.71, or +1.43%).

Other relevant information is that Shell announced over the weekend that it would be laying off 400 Dutch employees (the same report states that Shell employs 92,000 worldwide). Even if this information could cause a bump in Shells stock price, I find it hard to believe that it would carry the day in the face of the refinery shutdown.

Another thing I’ve considered: perhaps Shell has some sort of insurance that would reimburse them for lost revenue during the refinery shutdown, thus allowing them to take it in stride while selling off stocks of diesel, jet fuel and other refined products at the premium now being paid in Europe. I could see this as being a possible explanation, but it’s just speculation on my part.

When I posed the scenario to my dad, he just laughed and said the markets are rigged.

Does anyone have a good explanation for what the heck happened? I was ready to pull the trigger on Shell today and was left shaking my head in disappointment, now I’m still without my desired position.

Did a similar situation (oil company with giant fire) happened in the past? And if so how did the stock performed?

I did a quick google:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecul...bf8d9b1604

"Chevron’s stock has risen over the past week despite the news, indicating that the market did not attach much significance to the event"

There you go the market doesn´t give significance to this event. It´s not decisive enough to affect the stock.

Maybe you´re right before the market.

A judicial investigation normally beats down a stock.

Post: #134

Thanks for the input.

I looked into it and it seems to be a matter of degree. Some fires/shutdowns mean less or more than others. Surely [Pernis] the largest refinery in Europe going down isn’t comparable to an exploratory rig in terms of revenue/profits lost.

According to the Energy Information Administration (‘EIA’):

“Crack spreads are differences between wholesale petroleum product prices and crude oil prices. These spreads are often used to estimate refining margins. Crack spreads are a simple measure based on one or two products produced in a refinery (usually gasoline and distillate fuel). They do not take into consideration all refinery product revenues and exclude refining costs other than the cost of crude oil.”

Full article for those interested in “An Introduction to Crack Spreads”: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=1630

The EIA also provides the following data:
- (June, 2017) RBOB-Brent crack spread ~$0.35/gallon → $14.70/bbl
- (June, 2017) Distillate-Brent crack spread ~$0.30/gallon → $12.60/bbl
- (2012-2016 August Average) RBOB-Brent crack spread ~$0.25-$0.35/gallon → $10.50-$14.70/bbl
- (2012-2016 August Average) Distillate-Brent crack spread ~$0.36-$0.39/gallon → $15.12-$16.38/bbl

Information was above derived from graphs found here: https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/products/prices.php

NASDAQ reported on Monday that the Pernis refinery’s shutdown effect on diesel crack spreads “drove up… to a session high of $14.60 a barrel… its highest level since November 12, 2015.”

In addition, “Traders said concern over how long the refinery would be down was leading to an even bigger rally and one that could extend to support refinery margins in Asia and the United States… The gasoline refining margin in northwest Europe was up by over 12 percent at $13.43/barrel.”
The full NASDAQ report can be found here: http://www.nasdaq.com/article/shells-per...0731-01074

It seems that the refinery shutdown has at least had an effect on the market place for their products, not to mention the profitability of their competitors’ operations and any stocks Shell may have in store for immediate sale themselves. It is clearly important.

The reason I brought up crack spreads earlier was because they can be a useful heuristic for determining the amount of damage this shutdown might cause Shell. I’ll be conservative and select the lowest crack spread of the bunch to be representative of foregone earnings during the shutdown, that is $10.50/bbl. The refinery has a capacity of roughly 400,000 bbl/day, which translates to $4,200,000/day. It’s simplistic to think of this number as foregone earnings, but nevertheless, it’s at least foregone “crack spread” for each day the refinery is closed.

I cannot find the damn article I read a day ago, but I recall it saying that Shell commented on a “loss” of $2MM per week and an expected shutdown until at least the second half of August. Two weeks and only a $4MM loss??? I’m not sure what they meant by “loss,” but I’m skeptical that they only stand to lose $4MM during this shutdown whether it’s revenue or earnings.

At very conservative crack spreads ($10.50/bbl), they stand to lose $4.2MM/day ($10.50 x 400K bbl = $4.2MM). Assuming Pernis is up and running by mid-August, that’s a loss of: 15 days x $4.2MM = $63MM.

Last quarter (2Q 2017) Shell reported a net profit of $3.6B, which according to a CNBC article was an increase of 245% from last year’s 2Q earnings. Still, just looking at 2Q’s phenomenal earnings, let’s be generous and say $3.6B is an average quarter’s earnings. Divide that by 3 mo. = $1.2B/mo. Based on the conservative crack spreads I’m using above and the generous assumption of earnings, Shell should be looking at about $63MM in lost earnings for the month of August, which is roughly 5.25% less than might be anticipated otherwise.

This is just rule-of-thumbing it, but what other tools do we have? I’ll grant that at the time (Monday) there was no indication as to the duration of the refinery shutdown, whereas now we have some sort of an official statement that it will take “at least” until the second-half of August for things to get up and running again at Pernis. Still, the uncertainty at the time (Sunday/Monday/Tuesday) alone should have caused some hesitation in traders and investors. I am still bewildered by their lack of concern. Let’s face it, they shrugged and took the news as a boon.

A boon, they forged onwards and pumped Shell’s NYSE stock (RDS-A) upwards from a closing on Friday @ ~$55.76 to an open on Monday @ ~$56.33 (+1%), which closed @ ~$56.54 (+1.4% from Friday). Tuesday opened near Monday’s close and then rose to ~$56.81 (+1.9% from Friday). Wednesday opened near Tuesday’s close and then rose to ~$57.40 (+2.9% from Friday). Now, I’m holding my junk in my hand wondering why in the hell I’m paying $57+ per share instead of $55 or less?

Within a few days of the Pernis fire and knowing that it’s an indefinite shutdown with undetermined damage, I’d at least expect some hedging. But no, on Monday traders/investors pumped that sucker higher and higher, and continued to do so the next day and even higher the next day after learning about the planned duration of the shutdown.

Simply saying that “the markets don’t care” does not explain to me how an immediate 5% loss in monthly earnings doesn’t matter.

Look now, I do get it and I understand that it only matters if the markets think it matters. I just don’t get why the markets are shrugging and don’t think it matters!!??

Post: #135

(01-02-2017 05:56 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  What's on everyone's radar for this year?

Chinese tech, especially JD

Also day trading AMD

Post: #136

(07-31-2017 07:31 PM)Jeeves Wrote:  When I posed the scenario to my dad, he just laughed and said the markets are rigged.

Does anyone have a good explanation for what the heck happened? I was ready to pull the trigger on Shell today and was left shaking my head in disappointment, now I’m still without my desired position.

Your dad is wrong - the markets are not rigged.

The best bit of advice I can give you is that future stock prices cannot be predicted by analysing prices from the past and from analysing news flow - in fact stock prices are totally random in the short term.

Post: #137

I've lost 5 figures in the last 3 years from accountancy scandals in the FTSE 100. I got no compensation. Rigged.

Post: #138

(08-04-2017 01:27 PM)BB1 Wrote:  Your dad is wrong - the markets are not rigged.

The best bit of advice I can give you is that future stock prices cannot be predicted by analysing prices from the past and from analysing news flow - in fact stock prices are totally random in the short term.

Thanks for the advice. For the most part, I have been attempting to time my entries even though I've heard from numerous sources that this is generally a bad idea. I really needed to see for myself how difficult and perilous it can be.

If I grow to really like a company for some reason, then I've stopped this "wait and see if..." bologna and I'll just pay the extra cash if needed. On the other hand, due to specific risks that come with certain companies I'm following, I might be just as happy not investing in them until they reach an attractive price, so there's that too.

The short of it is that I need to keep my focus on the long-term if that's why I'm investing. Penny-pinching in the short-term has at best been a wash and has caused unnecessary/indefinite delays in some investments.

Haha, and that's not counting my great experiment in short-term speculation, which has been a real riot.

Post: #139

(08-04-2017 01:27 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(07-31-2017 07:31 PM)Jeeves Wrote:  When I posed the scenario to my dad, he just laughed and said the markets are rigged.

Does anyone have a good explanation for what the heck happened? I was ready to pull the trigger on Shell today and was left shaking my head in disappointment, now I’m still without my desired position.

Your dad is wrong - the markets are not rigged.

The best bit of advice I can give you is that future stock prices cannot be predicted by analysing prices from the past and from analysing news flow - in fact stock prices are totally random in the short term.

There was a broker who paid journalists to access the front page before they came out. And would bet accordingly. He made money but was caught and arrested. Saying the news don´t affect stock price is, sorry to say, ridiculous.

If I would invest money based on news. No. News can affect the stock price short term. But not long term. The fundamentals determine the stock price in the long run.
If the stock is cheap buy it. Determining why it´s cheap. This is a good question. And people who know the answer make a lot of money. For a multitude of reasons a stock can become cheap. And if you think it´s worth more. Make the call.

Post: #140

I've been following the oil & gas industry for some time now, and the immediacy of specific news reports or international risks certainly do have an effect on prices. However it's very difficult to predict or time that effect (hence my angst at not seeing a drop in Shell's price after the Pernis shutdown, which I thought would be a boon but turned out to be a bust for acquisition purposes).

Take today for instance. I had a certain expectation for the Baker Hughes rig count and was watching to see how the market would play up to 1:00 EST when the report was set to be released. A crazy spike in the price of WTI ("West Texas Intermediate" - US benchmark for crude) occurred at ~10:30, and then it was relatively calm the rest of the day in spite of the report at 1:00 that the North American rig count had diminished.

There was no immediate explanation for the early spike, but I could see something like that happening after the rig count was released. Was the report leaked? I don't know.

I've seen most preset news releases match pretty well in real time with the events to follow. Occasionally expectations don't match so well, like when the statistics are both positive and negative for oil supply/demand. Then the news might be interpreted one way for a few moments and drastically re-interpreted another way the next moment with intense and then waning enthusiasm.

This occurred recently on Wednesday when the US oil inventory drawdown was less than expected (initially a negative for WTI prices since expectations were presumably already priced in), but it was still a drawdown and perhaps indicative of trends or the efficacy of OPEC + Russian cuts, so WTI prices suddenly shot up afterwards and then gradually retreated. It was a chaotic and informative scene to witness.

The more I learn, the more I understand how little I know.

Post: #141

(08-04-2017 05:02 PM)ProGambler Wrote:  I've lost 5 figures in the last 3 years from accountancy scandals in the FTSE 100. I got no compensation. Rigged.

You mean accountancy scandals in individual FTSE 100 companies.

Yes, these things occur all the time, especially in Chinese companies. That is why doing your due diligence is so important. Don't rely solely on claims by companies about new product developments, lucrative contracts, or the company's financial health - you must independently verify claims.

That is why I usually only invest in founder lead companies where the founder or CEO have large equity stakes in their business, for example Shopify and Amazon.

More tips here :

https://www.sec.gov/reportspubs/investor...udhtm.html

But the overall market is not rigged.

Post: #142

I woke up with an idea today:

Investing in Ukraine.

As all of you know, Ukraine, formerly known as Russia's "little sister" country, has parted ways with Russia.

Much of the countries agriculturally rich areas have been torn by war and conflict with the Russian-speaking peoples.

The outlook for the next 10 even 20 years may not be good - GDP growth has been ~ -9.9% this past year. The economy is very fragile and contracting rapidly.

Yet Ukraine also has some of the most mineral rich soil in Europe, and a smart population (I believe the highest per-capita computer programmers per country). The people are smart. Here is some cool info:

Ukraine does have quite a lot of things going for it. Its legendary ‘black soil’ gives it a natural competitive advantage in agriculture. According to one Kiev-based broker, it is the second largest country in Europe by size with 15% of the continent’s arable land. It is the world’s sixth largest exporter of grains (excluding rice) with most of this heading to the Middle East and Northern Africa. It is the largest global supplier of sunflower oil and one of its largest exporters of walnuts.

It also has industry. Ukraine is one of the key producers of railway cars in the CIS. It also has one of the largest aviation engine manufacturers in the CIS and is the center of the former USSR's aviation industry. It supplies engines to 90% of helicopters produced by Russia.

It can also develop talent locally. Many graduates from Kharkov’s top universities end up in Silicon Valley and other tech centers much like smart graduates from India’s famous technical universities. Only a few of the people I met in Kiev had studied abroad, but almost everybody I met spoke some if not very good English.


http://michaelmcgaughy.blogspot.hk/2014/...rt_17.html

In the late 90s early 2000s, a smart man, Bill Browder of Hermitage Capital made investors ~1,500% returns by investing in Russian companies.

I'm not expecting these kind of returns, but I am looking for 500%-1000%.

I want to put some of the money I thought about allocating to cryptocurrencies at risk in some Ukrainian companies. I'm 30 years old, so my outlook is long term.

Anyone have any thoughts?

Post: #143

fortysix I have also previously considered investing in Ukrainian stocks but decided it was not worth the headache given the small amount I was thinking of investing. If you are going to do it you need to have a 10 year time horizon and you have to diversify among companies there because the corruption/scandal risks, corporate governance risks and political risks are all heightened compared to investing in a developed market. But yes, no doubt the potential for out-sized gains most certainly is there with valuations being so cheap.

The other points worth thinking about is that Ukraine's economy has been a serial under-performer over the long-term in terms of growth compared to other poor countries.

Also the guy who wrote the blog post you linked to seems to have formed his opinion by hanging out with financial and tech elites and perhaps his perception is skewed. This is what he said "Only a few of the people I met in Kiev had studied abroad, but almost everybody I met spoke some if not very good English." I have not been to Kiev but most people on Rooshv that have been there (read the Ukraine threads) said that only a minority of people (even young people) spoke English even in Kiev. Of course if you are hanging around all day with stock-brokers and CEOs (like the author of that post) you might not realize that is the case.

Post: #144

Anyone have any thoughts on CTL CenturyLink?? They were averaging about $25 and have dropped over 25% in the last 2 months because of a class action suit and a delayed merger, not to mention missing earnings 3 quarters in a row. Hit a low of $18.50 an hour ago currently sitting at $19. I think there is still more dropping to come, but anyone agree or disagree that it's a value at under $20?? Always had a good dividend too.

Post: #145

(07-24-2017 10:18 AM)white22 Wrote:  

(07-23-2017 04:48 AM)BB1 Wrote:  Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) looks good at $345.

In 2 years everyone will have forgotten the current Norovirus scare.

Not arguing that Chipotle (CMG) isn't a good buy at $345, but I personally think it is going to drop even further. If they miss earnings, which are reported tomorrow it'll take another dip. Also they are involved in a class action lawsuit with some 10,000 employees of due overtime pay. Regardless of how the lawsuit plays out it's still bad publicity at a time when their stock has already dropped 30% in 2 months.

Roughly 1 month later and CMG is now at roughly $309 a share. I'd recommend the company too for the above reasons.

Post: #146

Has anyone invested in Lithium?
I friend who works in management consulting recently invested 5k in this ETF. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LIT?ltr=1

Been a ride so far and the future is looking bright, in my opinion.

Post: #147

(09-14-2017 04:11 PM)Bateman Wrote:  Has anyone invested in Lithium?
I friend who works in management consulting recently invested 5k in this ETF. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LIT?ltr=1

Been a ride so far and the future is looking bright, in my opinion.

A good long term play if you're optimistic on electric vehicles hitting the market in the future.

Post: #148

Brought a good amount of Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) yesterday at $50 after Citron Research released a short attack which I believe is full of bullshit.

Post: #149

^I think Citron's argument is sound.

Good luck with that.

Post: #150

So Rite-Aid I think has hit an all time low today after their earnings call, it's hovering around $2 per share. Would it be wise to buy some now? I'm pretty sure they're not going to go completely under so this seems like a good bottom to buy at.

Also ROKU went IPO this morning a short while ago, only up $4 at this point.