Post: #76

Any fans of AKBA?

Post: #77

(04-05-2017 07:25 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  

(04-05-2017 10:28 AM)DJ-Matt Wrote:  

(01-27-2017 05:27 PM)Mr. Accuride Wrote:  Rare opportunity for the Rite Aid (RAD) buyout.
Currently priced at $6.93, expected to be bought out by Walgreens at $9.

If the deal fall through, you can imagine it dropping to about $5. If it goes through, you get $9.

It's a roughly 50/50 proposition for something that is more than 50% likely to go through. Trump just added a new FTC chairperson, and the one person expected to block the deal (Ramirez) will resign on Feb. 10th. When she does so, then Trump's FTC will most likely allow the deal to pass. The questions are 1) will Walgreens extend the deal or just go through with it without the FTC's blessing (likely) or just abandon the deal (unlikely), and 2) will Ramirez really kill the deal before resigning (unlikely).

Not a 100% thing, but these are the advantageous coin flips that you pray to find if you really want to gamble in the stock market. Size your bet accordingly.

Note that I am not a financial advisor and this shouldn't be considered sound financial advice; I just like advantageous gambling.

Looks like the deal hasn't happened yet but the stock price fell by half wonder if it's a good time to buy now?

Maybe. As I posted earlier, it's either falling to $3 or slightly lower than $3 or jumping to $6.50-$7.00. Walgreen's CEO announced that he expects it to go through by end of July, so there is that.

I will probably take a position, albeit a rather small one.

Went up a little bit today on rumors of the buyout, I'm in for 1k.

Post: #78

Anyone forsee any big upcoming FX plays? I did well shorting the £ at Brexit and the MXN Peso at Trump's election. But the day-to-day stuff has just been too volatile and hard for me to predict lately (even for FX).

Post: #79

http://www.seatrade-maritime.com/news/eu...ilips.html

NADL was $4 last year. Worthy of consideration. I'm wondering if oil in 2017 is going to be what semiconductors were in 2016.

(Made a quick $500 jumping on this in premarket.)

Post: #80

I think it may be time to move back to cash.

The E-Mini S&P500 (ESM17) is barely above the 50 day MA.

ES closed down today at 2350.50.
SMA(50) is at 2345.81.

Post: #81

Huawei Culture Co Ltd

This Chinese guy told me the other day it's going pass Apple in the future, that they have some serious Chinese talent working here.

BTW, we were chatting in China and he had a cellphone that looked outdated .....I asked what's that and he tells me. It has a lot of Chinese PHDs working there, its going to surpass Apple....

Your Welcome!

Thoughts? Have not had time to research it yet....

Post: #82

(04-06-2017 02:11 PM)Hoser Wrote:  Anyone forsee any big upcoming FX plays? I did well shorting the £ at Brexit and the MXN Peso at Trump's election. But the day-to-day stuff has just been too volatile and hard for me to predict lately (even for FX).

On Brexit it can really go both ways - if you look at Goldman forecasts they are very negative about it on the pound from what I remember forecasting cable to be around 1.18 next year. Honestly they are as clueless as the next guy. The pound has stabilised now around ~1.21-1.25 against the dollar. If the Brexit negotiations go well I could definitely see cable go to 1.30-1.32 by middle of next year, one other thing in play is inflation which is forecast by the BOE to reach 3% by the end of the year. As such there increasing pressure on considering increasing interest rates (as Kristin Forbes voted for in the last MPC meeting) and could well happen by early next year boosting sterling in turn.

On MXN fuck knows, as a longer term view if Trump is low on the ratings and unlikely to see a second term as president you can see a big upside on it.

Post: #83

Anyone have thoughts on SHOP ticker?

Post: #84

(04-06-2017 02:11 PM)Hoser Wrote:  Anyone forsee any big upcoming FX plays? I did well shorting the £ at Brexit and the MXN Peso at Trump's election. But the day-to-day stuff has just been too volatile and hard for me to predict lately (even for FX).

The French presidential results will be interesting.

If Le Pen wins, EUR will most likely tank. Macron, the opposite.

Post: #85

(04-18-2017 10:17 AM)Moreless Wrote:  Anyone have thoughts on SHOP ticker?

Shopify is an amazing company. I am up well over 100% on it now.
I will increase my holding on any decent pullback this year.

Here is their 2015 IPO roadshow video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYl8iwD-...e=youtu.be

An article on their culture :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...e21734931/

Post: #86

(04-05-2017 07:51 PM)tarquin Wrote:  Any fans of AKBA?

Up 33% today. Hopefully there are some more opportunities to buy before this heads north.

Post: #87

On a macro scale, if Trump's tax plan goes through - especially the part about a 10% one-time repatriation tax - it will likely bolster this bull market for a while longer. The rationale for these repatriation efforts is always "companies will bring that money back and create new jobs!" but it's almost entirely likely they'll employ the funds to buy back stock, increase dividends and juice returns for their own benefit. Not that I'm complaining, I hold a decent amount of stock in my portfolio and I'd love to see the growth in my dividends shoot up.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-ta...9V20140409

2.1 Trillion USD is a shit-ton of bread - even if the combined companies only brought back 1/3 or 1/4, that would be a sizable infusion in US corporate coffers.

Post: #88

While everybody is trying to beat the market, Vanguard has dropped its expense ratios for several popular index funds and ETFs.
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/...47480.html

So what, you may say. It's just one basis point (for example, from 5bp to 4 bp for the most popular S&P500 index fund).

I would argue that it's HUGE. It's 20% of the amount you pay per year to manage your investments based on Vanguard ERs which are already some of the lowest in the industry. Imagine your yearly grocery bill drops by 1/5, wouldn't you be pumped? But that's different, you may say. No, it isn't. The amount of money a serious investor pays to manage his investments is not dissimilar to his grocery bill.

Another important point is that in addition to charging investors, index funds and ETF providers make money (to the tune of a few basis points per year) by lending securities they hold in these funds. This adds a certain level of risk to investors. Vangard's policy is extremely conservative (less risky) when it comes to security lending. They also give back 90% of security lending income to their shareholders (meaning you, because their shareholders are the people and institutions that invest in their funds).

I am not a Vanguard shill and they don't pay me a dime. In fact, they don't pay anybody to advertise them online or post affiliate links. That's why you don't hear that much about Vanguard from investment and personal finance "gurus" with dollar signs in their eyes.

Quote:Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund, with $550 billion in assets, reported lower expense ratios for four share classes:

Institutional (VITSX): a half basis point to 0.035%.
Admiral (VTSAX): one basis point to 0.04%.
ETF (VTI): one basis point to 0.04%.
Investor (VTSMX): one basis point to 0.15%.
Introduced in 1992, the Total Stock Market Index Fund provides diversified exposure to the entire U.S. stock market by seeking to track the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index. In July 2013, the Fund crossed $267 billion, becoming the largest mutual fund.2

The $310 billion Vanguard 500 Index Fund saw reductions across the following share classes:

Admiral Shares (VFIAX): one basis point to 0.04%.
ETF (VOO): one basis point to 0.04%.
Investor (VFINX): two basis points to 0.14%.
The 500 Index Fund was introduced in 1976 by Vanguard Founder John C. Bogle, bringing the indexing strategy from the institutional market to individual investors for the first time. It is the largest fund seeking to track the S&P 500 Index.

The $178 billion Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund saw reductions across the following share classes:

Institutional Plus (VBMPX): one basis point decline to 0.03%.
Institutional (VBTIX): one basis point to 0.04%.
Admiral (VBTLX): one basis point to 0.05%.
ETF (BND): one basis point to 0.05%.
Investor (VBMFX): one basis point to 0.15%.

Post: #89

Agreed. Vanguard is where 80% of my investments are parked and will be parked until the day I die. My other 20% is spread around much riskier bets knowing the bulk of my assets will be managed responsibly and inexpensively. Vanguard helps me sleep well at night.

Post: #90

delete

Post: #91

Thought I share this video here:

Anton Kreil Annihilates Retail Brokers and "Trading Educators"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7G0OfJUON8

Post: #92

You guys are in the wrong thread to make money

Post: #93

(05-20-2017 10:44 AM)SunW Wrote:  You guys are in the wrong thread to make money

Billionaires focus on acquiring wealth. Speculators focus on making money.

I choose the former.

Post: #94

(04-25-2017 06:50 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 10:17 AM)Moreless Wrote:  Anyone have thoughts on SHOP ticker?

Shopify is an amazing company. I am up well over 100% on it now.
I will increase my holding on any decent pullback this year.

Here is their 2015 IPO roadshow video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYl8iwD-...e=youtu.be

An article on their culture :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...e21734931/

Shopify stock price has increased another 27% since my post 5 weeks ago. This company is a core holding of mine, and is growing like gangbusters.

Post: #95

To whoever put up a short of Toshiba at 180 yen- that was the worst tip of all time.

I bought Serco today at 116 on the FTSE 250 - fancy their stuff gets more government contracts in years to come but small stake as a growth stock.

Post: #96

(06-03-2017 07:22 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 06:50 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(04-18-2017 10:17 AM)Moreless Wrote:  Anyone have thoughts on SHOP ticker?

Shopify is an amazing company. I am up well over 100% on it now.
I will increase my holding on any decent pullback this year.

Here is their 2015 IPO roadshow video :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYl8iwD-...e=youtu.be

An article on their culture :

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on...e21734931/

Shopify stock price has increased another 27% since my post 5 weeks ago. This company is a core holding of mine, and is growing like gangbusters.

Yup, I bought in at $69 per share. I haven't sold yet and not planning to at this time.

Haven't bought anymore. Right now my money going to Ethereum.

Post: #97

Nice to see Shopify is using AI & Machine Learning :

"Krishnaratne notes that Shopify has been employing Machine Learning since at least August of 2016 on its Merchant Cash Advance Program, which was launched in April of the same year. He points out that this program is now driven 100 per cent by Machine Learning models that can assess the risk of all eligible U.S. merchants and create customized offers in less than one hour versus roughly one month when done manually.

The analyst says Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence are now a presence in many aspects of Shopify’s business, giving the company a potential leg-up on its competition."

http://www.cantechletter.com/2017/06/mac...m-capital/

Post: #98

Added Acacia Mining 260 yesterday - hoping the low IQ Tanzanians give up soon.

Post: #99

What does no one want to buy at the moment?

I'm looking to pick a basket of stocks/funds and hold. Decent dividend would be a bonus.

I have access to these markets:

https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditio...-available

To start the ball rolling:

Grains: http://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/jjg/
S&P500 Short: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SH?ltr=1

Secondly, does anyone know where I can look at stocks ordered by equity : market cap. ratio, and stocks that have low RSIs over a long period?

Post: #100

(06-20-2017 05:05 PM)gework Wrote:  What does no one want to buy at the moment?

I'm looking to pick a basket of stocks/funds and hold. Decent dividend would be a bonus.

I have access to these markets:

https://www.home.saxo/rates-and-conditio...-available

To start the ball rolling:

Grains: http://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/jjg/
S&P500 Short: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/SH?ltr=1

Secondly, does anyone know where I can look at stocks ordered by equity : market cap. ratio, and stocks that have low RSIs over a long period?

Business Development Companies got hammered in 2008 and haven't recovered to their pre Great Recession price levels. Though they have continued to pay dividends. BDCs have to distribute 90% of their earnings. You pay income tax (not the 15% dividend tax) on their distributions, so it is better to hold these stocks in a tax deferred / free account (i.e. regular or Roth IRA).

Three examples: PSEC, TICC, TCAP

Right now I am in mostly cash or capital preservation as I think the market is seriously over-valued. When / if the correction happens, I might take a look again at energy stocks...