(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Lotta good information being shared here. I've only been in crypto for about a year now, and in that time bitcoin has always been king. Bitcoin has been dominant and seen such explosive growth that I have never doubted being all-in on bitcoin. At the same time, I feel that I always need to be prepared for change so I'm not gonna go down with the ship if that were to ever happen.

Different coins offer different things. So, I don't know if bitcoin is king, but it is the only one that offers secure decentralized immutable value transfer and storage. Something about that.. is important.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  But the last few months have been worrisome. I'm not too blockchain-savvy, but I understand enough to know that this scaling debate is a serious issue. We saw it reflected in the price, where all the FUD and infighting kept us in that stagnant market from January to March.

The scaling debate has been a supposed issue all the way before the crash from $250 to present.

I doubt scaling is as BIG of an issue as you are suggesting... or even that the FUDsters are whining about.

I also would not call January to March - stagnant.

It is healthy to have corrections and even flat periods in the price..

otherwise the growth becomes way to unsustainable...

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  And that entire time, what's the discussion on all the bitcoin forums and related crypto/trading reddits? Constant doom and death of bitcoin talk, fighting between the BU and core camps. No progress on the price.

3-4 months is a pretty short period of time.

price crossed over $1k on new years.. and then getting in the $1.4 k territory now is pretty fucking large growth.. especially if you consider that in the beginning of 2016 we were in the lower $400s for 5 months.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  And then, inexplicably, what happens in April? Bitcoin price rises to ATH despite zero progress on the scaling issue being made while BTC marketcap dominance continues to shrink at an alarming rate.

I'm not alarmed.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  You'd honestly have to be foolish not to be worried for bitcoin.

I'm so worried that the price might crash to $3k.. fuck... there is a lot to worry about..

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  But what is all the talk on the forums now? Some talk about surging price, little discussion on scaling issues, segwit, etc.

so what?

there is talk about a lot of topics on forums.


seg wit just activated on litecoin.. that might help.. surely seg wit would be good, but if it does not happen, bitcoin will be fine, too.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  But the most surprising thing? How dead and unenthusiastic the btc community is right now. And its all starting to remind me of the election last year.

hm? We will see how that part plays out then.

What is the issue?


Bitcoin is stagnant and the community is dead too?

More is happening in the alt coin space? really?

all are going up in price now and there is development all over the place, so we are going to see how this stuff plays out, no?

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  One of the things I paid attention to last year was the level of enthusiasm online for the candidates. To me, twitter followers, likes received, rally sizes, etc. were more important than skewed polls and whatever stories the fake news was peddling.

oh my.. now you are quoting donald trump as being honest.. hahahahaha in the bitcoin thread? you must really want to get off topic?

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  I remember telling a friend about how far behind Hillary lagged behind Trump in Twitter followers and likes per tweet. How dead her rallies were compared to his. How active /the_donald subreddit was compared to the activity at /politics or hillary's sub, which was basically all CTR shills anyway. His response?

-"ROFLMAO ur so dumb, twitter likes matter? herp derp polls say she's way ahead he doesn't stand a chance GL WITH UR BET LOL"

That part is true. The odds were quite a bit less than 20% that Trump would win.. but he did ..

Same thing happening in bitcoin.. yeah right.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  And we all know how that turned out. Now, basically the same exact thing is happening in the crypto-sphere. I've been regularly following some other forums, usually bitcointalk and the various crypto subreddits (/bitcoin, btc, ethereum, ethtrader, bitcoinmarkets, etc.) and bitcoin talk is basically dead too.

yep.. dying a pretty rough death. ..

Fucking ATH messages keep appearing on my screen.. $1389,now.. fuck.. this death is horrible.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  -Zero updates, dialogue, whatever regarding the scaling debate or if segwit is ever coming at all.

true... that bitcoin might stay stagnant for years.. and remain immutable... and people can choose whether to buy it or not... what's wrong with that?

You can have your innovation on those other platforms.. great.. go innovate... bitcoin is still going to be o.k... no?

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  -bitcointalk's speculation forum has a long-running "wall-observer" thread regardining the price. Our friend JJG knows about it well Activity and discussion on this thread has heavily died down in the last month or so.

discussion seems to go up quite a bit with price surges.. and if you want to talk about dead, go back to early 2015.. it was mostly just me and a few other hard core folks posting in the thread..

The thread is currently doing o.k... but it has it's trolls, just like this thread seems to have brought out a lot of alt coin shills in recent months, for some reason? Go figure?

Maybe because the bitcoin price is going UP?

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  -r/bitcoin has basically turned into r/politics. There's evidence of heavy censorship going on there and entire posts critical of bitcoin being deleted while on r/btc the same post is there

Bunch of nutjobs on r/btc mostly... big blocker nut jobs that trying to figure out ways to be against core for no real reason and saying a lot of the same nonsense talking points that you are currently making.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  -all the activity has moved to ethtrader mostly. At one point last night, as ETH was climbing from $75-80, r/ethtrader had more active users than r/bitcoin, r/btc, and r/bitcoinmarkets combined!

nothing wrong with that... go innovate.. no problem.

Actually RVF should create an ETH thread, if guys are so pumped up about ETH, then that would be a GREAT idea...

Go forth and make an ETH thread.

Oh, no, you don't really want to create an ETH thread.. instead you want to come to the BTC thread and discuss how great ETH is, amirite?

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  -r/bitcoin is where you go to see a few people cheer about the price. r/btc is where you go for the doomsday gloom. r/bitcoinmarkets is dead. and r/ethtrader is where you go to see people talking about gains and how much money they are making

o.k. that is fine.. great reference for guys who might be interested in the topic.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  So if bitcoin's number one advantage is its network effect, which is heavily dropping already, how can it survive and still be number one whenever crypto finally goes mainstream and the average Joe hops aboard?

Bitcoin does not need to be number one in order to offer value...

So go ahead .. there is not a problem .. you can take the enthusiasm and the users and all of that and multiply on ETH..

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Think about it. You ask the average person now, and they still don't even know about bitcoin. Maybe they heard about it but they don't know anything about it other than that people used to buy drugs with it.

That's true that lots of people do not know about bitcoin..

Therefore there is still a lot of room for adoption..

Maybe some of them will go to ETH instead.. ?

That's fine.. if you find value in BTC then come to BTC, if you find value in ETH, then go there.

You can also take a bit of a stake in each..

I personally don't recommend ETH.. but whatever, do the fuck what you want..

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  I've been telling my friends about bitcoin, mostly college-educated guys who are making some money, and none of them have hopped in (just like with Trump). They are too afraid of the risk or simply too lazy to do it themselves (sry bro im not gonna buy crypto coins for you or just send you some of mine for cash).

That is true with almost anything.. people are not going to buy in until all of their friends are using it.

Might take more than 10 more years to get to that level with bitcoin, even though there is more and more adoption on a regular basis...

You can find all kinds of charts showing that adoption of bitcoin is going through the roof.. especially in places like Japan.. but little by little and more and more and that is part of the reason for the ongoing and upwards price pressures..

this is fucking terrible.. $1391.31 now.. .. If these ATHs continue, pretty soon we are going to crash all the way through $1400... only 300 coins to $1400 and only $1100 coins to $1529.. fuck this thing is crashing horribly.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  So whenever this cryptosphere finally does truly explode and go mainstream (hopefully), if bitcoin has lost its dominance and network effect to ethereum or another blockchain, no one is gonna remember that bitcoin was king for the first decade and had 80%+ marketcap dominance up until recently. They will just see that bitcoin isn't number one anymore and buy whatever is. The 'ol Myspace-Facebook analogy that is so popular.

Nothing wrong with that. If that happens, then what is the fucking problem? There is a problem?

What you going to do right now, that is the question?

You going to buy ETH, then go fucking buy it. We gotta act based on today and what we believe tomorrow is going to bring us, so we make various decision. Later if the situation changes, then we make adjustments and we reallocate.

I don't see what is the problem that bitcoin happens to be 10% in the future? Right now it is a bit more than 50%.. and great.. nothing wrong with that...

If ETH is going to make you more money and continue to expand, then let it be so.. good luck with your investment into it..

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  As BTC's marketcap dominance shrinks to alts by the day while the uncertainty with Bitifinex and China continues, every post rationalizing everything as OK seems more and more delusional. I saw one guy who actually believed it would be a good thing for BTC to drop to 30% dominance and serve as the reserve currency for other alts. To serve more as digital gold and less as a digital currency.

I think maybe you are missing the point...

We just go with what is.. and if it happens that more people want to go to alts, then let them go there. See ya later.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Well, why don't we all invest in gold? Because we are looking for gains, not something that will stagnate in value.

There are a variety of reasons that guys chose whatever they chose... hopefully they diversify sufficiently into something that works for them..

gold is not very portable and it has storage and transportation costs and issues... there are also manipulation concerns.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  It's actually really pissing me off that this is happening, because I just wanted to stay with bitcoin,

Why stay with bitcoin if it is not working for you? You can completely leave or just diversify out of it.

There is never going to be any perfect fit with anything. You gotta allocate according to your comfort level, and if you are not comfortable, then find some thing or things that are more suitable.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  but I'm getting the same feeling in my gut that I did last year, and it's telling me I'm a fool to be all in on bitcoin.

I'm sure that you should be able to find an allocation that is comfortable.. maybe 10% would feel better? Maybe 50% or maybe 0% or maybe shorting it would feel good.


You gotta find your own comfort level, and if you believe that some coins offer more, then you should seek them out to the best of your ability.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  So I've changed my portfolio now to about 75% ETH/20% BTC/5% GNT. Cashed out most of my GNT for ETH since I was nervous about the recent dips and already made decent gains from .14-.22. In another month, I will have more money to invest and will re-evaluate my position once again. I may get out of BTC entirely aside from a coin or two if nothing has changed in the meantime.

o.k... sounds like you have already mostly decided... great.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  The next couple years are really gonna be exciting. I was a little sad realizing how much I could have made had I traded my BTC earlier in January when I was first reading about ETH and it was only like $7. But I believed all the shit I read about it being a scamcoin etc.

you blaming someone for your belief? I have believed it is a scam coin from $1.50 all the way to $88.. so yeah... could have made a lot of money, but I am not putting any of my money in that shit.. even though it would have paid off handsomely. It does not work for me... and I have no regrets.

(05-01-2017 09:30 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Gotta have some perspective though. We are still really, really early into the whole cryptosphere. You don't want to get ahead of yourself obviously, but its hard not to think that 5 years from now everyone in this thread will be very, very happy that we were posting here now as all our buddies who doubted us are finally playing catch-up.

that part is true..

there is a lot going on in crypto and there are a lot of folks who still have not gotten in at all, so we are still seeming to be very early adopters no matter which crypto and no matter which allocation you chose.

(05-01-2017 10:11 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Ahaha and just as I typed this up, BTC breaks through another price wall and surges past $1450 just to make me feel like a dumbass. At least I sold above 1400 and didn't buy the top with ETH. Not gonna make anymore moves for awhile now as frankly I don't have a clue what's going on. But I'm worried that this is a pump for bitcoin. Alts are getting their correction now it seems, and I'm curious to see what happens with bitcoin. How much further does it go up? Does it continue dropping its overall market dominance? And is this money flowing from alts back to btc or new money into btc.

I think that it is way too early to tell.. and this week (and maybe even the following week) will likely result in continued uppity for everyone.

Of course, reversals can occur at any point, too.

Interesting new page showing some of the support for seg wit and UASF..

https://coin.dance/poli

JJG, I'm just trying to come at it from the perspective of someone who is trying to get the best % gains on their crypto investment this year. Bitcoin was amazing for that last year. It could still turn around and shoot up to 2k, 3k whatever. None of us honestly know. But I wanna make significant money here while I still can. It sounds like you've been in BTC for awhile. Maybe you've got enough coins where now you feel comfortable enough to just sit on that and already made huge profits. But I don't have enough BTC to just sit back and think I'll be able to quit my job unless it goes to 10k sometime in the next couple years. So that is my perspective and what I'm trying to add to the discussion. And I'm pretty sure the entire crux of my post was about BTC. Not trying to pump ETH here.

Anyway, all my recent activity reminded me why I don't dabble in trading. Whales are playing the market and we're just sitting here trying to make sense of it. I preferred when it was mostly bitcoin in the news and I could just worry about its price only but a lot has changed so far in 2017. I still think bitcoin has the safest floor of all the cryptos right now, so at the very least I've accepted that even if all the alts suddenly crash and burn and all the money flows back into BTC and we get segwit rolling and we shoot up to the moon I'll still have more BTC than 99% of the population.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  JJG, I'm just trying to come at it from the perspective of someone who is trying to get the best % gains on their crypto investment this year.

Nothing wrong with trying to do your best.

Just sounds to me like you are trying to sell something... like an anti-bitcoin sentiment..

Who cares if you like bitcoin or not.. just invest the best of your ability and figure out your comfort level of allocation.

Sounds like you have already chosen your level of allocation and you are considering adjusting it, and there is nothing wrong with that.

I just think that your expectations are too high if you believe that you can predict with any kind of accuracy in regards to "the best."

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Bitcoin was amazing for that last year. It could still turn around and shoot up to 2k, 3k whatever.

There are no guarantees, and it could go to $200, too.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  None of us honestly know.

Most guys are not claiming to know.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  But I wanna make significant money here while I still can.

you should consider your timeline? You want to make money in a year or do you have some money that has a higher time line..


Personally, I think that it is a problem to attempt to rush any investment and to build up your expectations too high regarding returns.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  It sounds like you've been in BTC for awhile. Maybe you've got enough coins where now you feel comfortable enough to just sit on that and already made huge profits.

Yes, each of us has to build from our current state.

If you do not have enough coins, then you build the coins.

It took me about a year to build my initial level of investment, and I am still in the process of tweaking..

But I agree with you about guys being in a different position when they are accumulating versus when they have already built a stake that has equity.

Yet, some of the principles are still the same..and you have to be careful about expecting too much too quickly.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  But I don't have enough BTC to just sit back and think I'll be able to quit my job unless it goes to 10k sometime in the next couple years. So that is my perspective and what I'm trying to add to the discussion.

A lot of guys are in a similar position, especially if they are just getting into crypto. There is nothing wrong with sharing perspective and wanting more BTC.. but you gotta work with what you have rather than making some kinds of unrealistic expectations or wanting BTC to conform to your vision... you invest in accordance with your vision rather than attempting to change the asset class into something else.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  And I'm pretty sure the entire crux of my post was about BTC. Not trying to pump ETH here.

Maybe that is true? But came off to me as a kind of ETH pump.. or at least a compare and contrast that was saying that you wished that BTC was more like ETH.. which they are separate things and each has its pluses and its minuses.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Anyway, all my recent activity reminded me why I don't dabble in trading. Whales are playing the market and we're just sitting here trying to make sense of it.

You gotta create your various positions and account for the fact that whales are going to manipulate in one direction or another and manipulate beyond your expectations.. therefore you attempt to create your holdings in such a way that you are prepared for manipulations that are likely to occur even though you don't really know the specifics until after they have already happened.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  I preferred when it was mostly bitcoin in the news and I could just worry about its price only but a lot has changed so far in 2017.

and that is not going to change any time soon and each of us has to sort through the information.. good, bad and ugly.

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  I still think bitcoin has the safest floor of all the cryptos right now, so at the very least I've accepted that even if all the alts suddenly crash and burn and all the money flows back into BTC and we get segwit rolling and we shoot up to the moon I'll still have more BTC than 99% of the population.

You could buy 1 BTC and have more than 99% of the population.

more can be better, but you have to work within your means and to diversify, which seems to already be in your plans.

I personally dont diversify so much in cryptos, but you gotta figure a diversifcation that works for you.. however, if you are just in the beginning of building your investments, there is not a lot to diversify.. so you might begin with one or two investments and as you build equity and increased stake in your investments then you diversify more and more with the passage of time and with the increases in your holdings (which takes time to build)...

I have been investing for more than 30 years, so I have been accumulating assets for a bit longer, too..

JJG, I do think you are underestimating the scaling issue though. If people were talking about it as a forthcoming problem in 2013, and no progress has been made on it since then, isn't that at least a little bit concerning to you long term? Not only are transaction fees going up but the average transaction is taking longer. I personally haven't experienced anything longer than say 40 minutes at worst to confirm a transaction, and usually much quicker, but for people who want BTC to be a currency that you could use to make small purchases like coffee, bitcoin probably isn't satisfying their needs anymore, whether you agree with them or not. If another blockchain provides this quicker than bitcoin does, this could be a big issue.

Also, the point I was trying to make was that all the hype about price on the forums masks the fact that the BU/Core battle and scaling debate is still ongoing with no end in sight. I want bitcoin to succeed, but it's hard not to be concerned when the numbers and changes in the market are staring you right in the face. But hey, for now I'm still happy that the price keeps going up. I realize it was a bit foolish to say I'd totally get out of BTC . Maybe I'll buy some more next month too who knows.

(05-01-2017 11:11 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  .......

(05-01-2017 10:51 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  It sounds like you've been in BTC for awhile. Maybe you've got enough coins where now you feel comfortable enough to just sit on that and already made huge profits.

Yes, each of us has to build from our current state.

If you do not have enough coins, then you build the coins.

It took me about a year to build my initial level of investment, and I am still in the process of tweaking..

But I agree with you about guys being in a different position when they are accumulating versus when they have already built a stake that has equity.

Yet, some of the principles are still the same..and you have to be careful about expecting too much too quickly.

I feel like I should supplement this above point a little bit.

Guys come off as complaining about bitcoin either because they think that it is not returning them enough profits, and there are competing investments that might return better profits.

Frequently I tell people that they are being unrealistic if they expect to get more than 10% profits in a year, especially if we are referring to consistent profits

Sure, you could end up getting 100% or more profits in year, but you should not count on it because mentally, these things can take time and there may be ups and downs and you should not get distracted because another asset is performing better than bitcoin.

If you have low confidence in bitcoin, then keep a low investment. Frequently we talk about having at least 1% of your quasi-liquid investment in bitcoin (or you may chose some other crypto), but sometimes guys want to invest 50% or 80% or just go balls to the walls, and then hope for a high level return, and those strategies might work and they might not, but in the end there is no need to get all worked up and negative about bitcoin because it ends up performing less well than some other assets... and we cannot be sure ahead of time.

The same is true when you look at past performance, and someone told you that bitcoin was a good investment, so you invest at $700 and then you find out that your money has not quite doubled, but there are other investments that 5x or 10x or 20x.. and you could have done better. Those are distractions. You need to consider right now, how much to invest in each and what is your strategy or if you are going to stay on the sidelines and wait out the situation. Each strategy has risks of either losing money or opportunity costs of missing out on making money.

I personally have been considering that bitcoin is such a risky investment, that anything above a few percentage per year is icing on the cake.... so I believe that becomes a bit of a healthy mental perspective to always feel like I am making more than I had expected to make, rather than worrying about whether I could have made more somewhere else (which seems to be a standard that other guys want to impose on me or to compete with me in a situation in which I am not competing against others, but instead finding a system in which I am comfortable).

(05-01-2017 11:45 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  JJG, I do think you are underestimating the scaling issue though. If people were talking about it as a forthcoming problem in 2013, and no progress has been made on it since then, isn't that at least a little bit concerning to you long term?

Well, I think that they had been talking about it since about early to mid-2015, and making a big deal out of it, starting in about late 2015 when prices were in the mid $200s. Prices still rose. People still complained bitcoin is broken. Market still had confidence to buy bitcoin.

Which part am I underestimating? The importance of the issue? The impact on the prices? The future impact and growth? These bullshit points are raised on a frequent basis as if there were a technical problem in bitcoin, but the goal is to attempt to change governance and to undermine bitcoin and to make bitcoin more easy to change.

I am really glad that members of the core team have been smart enough to identify the fact that we do not need the bullshit changes that are being proposed.

Yeah, they all sound rational and logical and future proofing bitcoin, etc etc etc.. but they are not based on any kind of technical need.

Sure seg wit would likely resolve a lot of this, but seg wit may not pass... so accordingly, bitcoin is what it is, and might not get seg wit. so fucking what?

I would prefer a bitcoin that has seg wit, but I am going to choose the extent to which I invest or not based on what bitcoin is, rather than what I wished that it would be. If bitcoin ends up changing, then I may have to reconsider my allocations, too.

So, yeah bitcoin could be better and there could be other better investments..., and we each make choices about that and we are not locked into our choices because we have the freedom to tweak with the passage of time, changes in our views, changes in the technology or any other change that we find.

(05-01-2017 11:45 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Not only are transaction fees going up but the average transaction is taking longer.

Bitcoin is still valuable in spite of these things, and fees are pretty low considering amount of value sent. Yesterday, I sent about 2 bitcoins for less than $.20, and it took about an hour to go through. Even if it took a day, so fucking what.. still pretty decent.

(05-01-2017 11:45 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  I personally haven't experienced anything longer than say 40 minutes at worst to confirm a transaction, and usually much quicker,

I have had several transactions take more than 30 hours, so sometimes there can be some clogging that is a bit irritating.

(05-01-2017 11:45 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  but for people who want BTC to be a currency that you could use to make small purchases like coffee, bitcoin probably isn't satisfying their needs anymore,

That's true.. and there may be needs for other cryptos to fill some of that space... whether that is temporary or permanent.. but small transactions may not work so well, depending on whether there is a need for confirmation or just a need to trust that the transaction is going to go through.. if it has not gone through then it could be irritating to lose money on a transaction.

(05-01-2017 11:45 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  whether you agree with them or not. If another blockchain provides this quicker than bitcoin does, this could be a big issue.

I don't think it is a BIG issue. It is merely an issue that could cause more value to be with another system, and there is no real need for bitcoin to become everything, especially at this early stage in its life. If another crypto can fill such a niche, then let it fill that niche.

(05-01-2017 11:45 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Also, the point I was trying to make was that all the hype about price on the forums masks the fact that the BU/Core battle and scaling debate is still ongoing with no end in sight.

The more value that a network has, the more likely there are going to be battles.

Further the more decentralized a system is, the more likely there are going to be battles.

So long as BTC remains decentralized and continues to maintain or increase value, the battles are likely to become more intense rather than less intense...

Battles are part of the ecosystem and should be expected and tolerated.

If you cannot tolerate some of the uncertainties with ongoing and expected battles, then you should figure out another investment that is more acceptable.

Some cryptos might be able to hide internal battles or they may not have enough value.. but as I said if they have high value and decentralization, then battles are a part of doing business in such a space.

(05-01-2017 11:45 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  I want bitcoin to succeed, but it's hard not to be concerned when the numbers and changes in the market are staring you right in the face.

The numbers are staring me in the face as being pretty fucking good.

Yeah, there may have been some better performers, but sometimes it is not worth the risk.

We can vary in our choices in this regard, and if you think that bitcoin is dying, then cash out or stop investing or reallocate to a better comfort level.

(05-01-2017 11:45 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  But hey, for now I'm still happy that the price keeps going up. I realize it was a bit foolish to say I'd totally get out of BTC . Maybe I'll buy some more next month too who knows.

Well, the higher the price goes (with anything) the more likely that it is going to experience a correction. So it remains a bit challenging to say bitcoin is undervalued... blah blah blah.. when the price has tripled or more.. ..


And, even if the price is $2k, you still gotta make a choice whether you buy, sell or whatever...

I continue to recommend a similar strategy that involves dollar cost averaging, but if you think that an asset is overvalued you may even chose a smaller dollar cost average amount for that particular asset and allocate more to an asset that you perceive as undervalued. Guys are most likely going to continue to vary in their valuation of assets... whether bitcoin or otherwise.

This is an odd thread. Everybody is winning but arguing about it at the same time.

(05-01-2017 01:46 PM)SunW Wrote:  This is an odd thread. Everybody is winning but arguing about it at the same time.

nah..

haven't you noticed that bitcoin is dying? snap out of it SunW.

(05-01-2017 02:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 01:46 PM)SunW Wrote:  This is an odd thread. Everybody is winning but arguing about it at the same time.

nah..

haven't you noticed that bitcoin is dying? snap out of it SunW.

JayJuanGee - you should relax at some point...

I do like to read your insights, but insights from other users are also valuable. There is no reason to comment every sentence, which does not hype Bitcoin.

Just because someone is talking about another coin then bitcoin has nothing to do with pumping another coin. Or do you really think one comment in RVF has an impact on the market?

You are in for the long term, so chill a bit.

(05-01-2017 08:16 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  Maybe the alt coins are a bubble. Or maybe they're the Facebook and Snapchat and Instagram to Bitcoin's Myspace.

This is what I think too, and I've been thinking like this for the last 2 - 3 years. Looking at the statistics today, it seems like I've been right all along.

By the way, congrats Armogan on successful trades. I'd come for some drinks if I were in LA.

I share that sentiment - the guys in this thread are among the sharpest thinkers and writers on RVF. I don't make it to LA as much as I used to, but if guys are visiting SF and want to get drinks, PM me.

(05-01-2017 02:33 PM)Ray Carlton Wrote:  JayJuanGee - you should relax at some point...

I do like to read your insights, but insights from other users are also valuable. There is no reason to comment every sentence, which does not hype Bitcoin.

Just because someone is talking about another coin then bitcoin has nothing to do with pumping another coin. Or do you really think one comment in RVF has an impact on the market?

You are in for the long term, so chill a bit.

I tried to suggest the same tack a few months before, but JJG is what he is. Guy is all in on BTC for better or worse. I find the trolling to his posts hilarious though.

(05-01-2017 02:33 PM)Ray Carlton Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 02:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 01:46 PM)SunW Wrote:  This is an odd thread. Everybody is winning but arguing about it at the same time.

lolwtf:

nah..

haven't you noticed that bitcoin is dying? snap out of it SunW.

JayJuanGee - you should relax at some point...

I do like to read your insights, but insights from other users are also valuable. There is no reason to comment every sentence, which does not hype Bitcoin.

Just because someone is talking about another coin then bitcoin has nothing to do with pumping another coin. Or do you really think one comment in RVF has an impact on the market?

You are in for the long term, so chill a bit.

You have a misunderstanding if you believe that my thread comments or my enthusiasm for the topic or my sharing of information (including my way of commenting on the post of others) have anything to do with hyping of bitcoin or related to any financial position that I have taken in regards to bitcoin or any other crypto.

While I agree that the seeming likelihood of my commenting may cause some RVFers to refrain from posting in this thread, there are way more of you than me (hahahahahaha), so any or all of you should feel free to post or to ignore any of my comments within your discretion.

If you or anyone else is worried that I may comment on your post, or you prefer someone else comment, there could possibly be a way to achieve such objective,.. but I am not going to pre-agree to taking any kind of "chilling pill" in that regard..

In other words, if guys believe that my enthusiasm for the topic hampers their feelings or abilities to post in this thread, then that is likely saying more about them or their comfort level with this topic than it is about me....

You or any other guy is willing to send me a pm if you want to discuss this kind of topic further.

(05-01-2017 09:14 PM)booshala Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 02:33 PM)Ray Carlton Wrote:  [edited out]

I tried to suggest the same tack a few months before, but JJG is what he is. Guy is all in on BTC for better or worse. I find the trolling to his posts hilarious though.

What do you mean by "all in?"

You mean that I am interested in the topic of bitcoin? Or do you mean that you have some kind of idea regarding my finances? Did you misread something, or do you have some kind of idea regarding the meaning of "all in?"

Regarding trolling.. yes, there are some guys who troll this thread, and there are some guys who think trolling is "hilarious" as you said...

If you feel good to encourage and cheer trolling within RVF, that may say something about you or your consideration of the bitcoin topic, no?

For the most part, trolling is a discourtesy to other RVF guys, and sure we can attempt to have fun with it, too... but I question whether it is a good idea to encourage such trolling.

What does that altcoin chart look like? It looks like exponential growth in a very small amount of time. Whether it is a pump or the first major wave in a bigger altcoin movement, it is still a huge rise that looks due a correction in the short-medium term. Because BTC is bigger and requires comparatively huge volume to make it move another exponential wave in very small amount of time, combining the two values will make it look as if BTC is losing dominance. But if BTC is (relatively) flat, heck even rising through ATH as we are seeing today, and there are tons of altcoins getting pumped 5x, 10x, even 100x, then the total altcoin rise is going to be far greater than the rise in BTC, and BTC will lose market share in Cryptos.

As for community activity, it is important but not always correlated to price. Dogecoin subreddit and general social media at one time had more activity than all the bitcoin activity, but that doesn't mean Dogecoin knocked Bitcoin off the top. When ETH was at a few dollars it was still hard to take it seriously like all new altcoins, so if you gambled then well done, but for every ETH there are dozens of altcoins that make it nowhere, even if they have some new features.

I agree that BTC definitely needs to address the scaling issue and other things, but if it doesn't it's still a great way to store value on your own, protect your assets from fiat hyperinflation. Also its inflexibility can be flipped into a net positive attribute. The Federal Reserve for example is an entity that can print bills at will, no one knows the true extent of the greed and evil perpetrated directly or indirectly by the Fed. In other countries like Zimbabwe and Venezuela fiat currency has left destruction in its path. The US dollar may hold value as it is enforced worldwide so aggressively. But ultimately if the dominance of the US worldwide falls, so the dollar would change dramatically according to just how much has actually been printed by the Fed. BTC cannot change that. Even if transaction fees rise, because it can't change, at least not very quickly, then BTC would still probably be cheaper and quicker to send and keep in amounts over, say, $1k USD than other methods for a long time.

As I write this all altcoins except one or two are significantly down for the day, BTC going up to new all time high approaching $1500. The Facebook/Myspace thing, let's say with ETH as the "Facebook", I don't think is a reasonable comparison. FB/Myspace are companies, BTC and other cryptocurrencies are digital assets which are very different. New and more widely used features as in ETH may not necessarily mean higher prices or price dominance even with "backing" (whatever that means) of some big corporations. Especially as the best use of Cryptos is as a free, secure method of storing and transferring wealth outside of any banking system or corporation.

Given how new Cryptocurrencies are I don't think anyone can predict with any degree of certainty where this is going. We're in unchartered territory. If you want to make money, then place your bets. Buy BTC if you believe in that or buy ETH or Gollum or Dogecoin or whatever other altcoin you want to make 10x in 3 months. We all have free choice. Also if ETH is that great and people want to talk about it more than BTC in a thread called the Bitcoin thread, maybe it would be a good idea to open a ETH thread so those more interested in ETH can talk about that in detail.

Back to BTC price briefly: currently approaching $1500 but again on no spectacular volume at all. Hard to judge when the real price battle and volatility will begin again.

How about an attempt at a topical post, guys?

Bitcoin, remember?

hahahahahaha...

Am I coming of as pretentious as I could be?


We got ourself what seems to be a bit of a temporary a little lul in the UPPITY of the bitcoin price action.. so, yeah, bouncing around between about $1390 and $1415 in the past several hours.

You guys prepared to call a reversal and to assert that bitcoin is dead or dying?


GO ON,.. assert it?


I am gaining a little confidence that we got a bit more UPPITY that we are likely going to be heading either sideways or down... .and so that means, that I am getting in the mid 40% or maybe even going above 50% concerning my predicted price direction.. as UPPITY!!!!

Of course, NONE of us can ever be really sure... but it seems that we have more folks willing to buy than to sell, even at these ongoing ATH prices.

I would really like a downwards price correction.. I am getting more and more anxious for a correction because I have way too much money building up, but I am afraid to break the news...

BREAKING NEWS... the bitcoin price is not looking like it will be going down soon... and maybe we are going to get well into the mid to upper $1,500s first? I could be wrong, I could be wrong.. I could be wrong... .but I am having my doubts... and I am just saying.... sorry bout dat.. bitcoin shorters, bitcoin naysayers and bitcoin deniers.

(05-01-2017 09:29 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  What do you mean by "all in?" Or do you mean that you have some kind of idea regarding my finances? Did you misread something, or do you have some kind of idea regarding the meaning of "all in?"

Gee please leave personal posts out of this thread and stick to the topic. It is called "The Bitcoin Thread". Perhaps, post your personal things in the Everything Else sub-forum.

In other news, BTC crashed up 5% today. What a fantastic time to be alive! I'm thinking Uppity.

(05-01-2017 10:25 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  What does that altcoin chart look like? It looks like exponential growth in a very small amount of time. Whether it is a pump or the first major wave in a bigger altcoin movement, it is still a huge rise that looks due a correction in the short-medium term. Because BTC is bigger and requires comparatively huge volume to make it move another exponential wave in very small amount of time, combining the two values will make it look as if BTC is losing dominance. But if BTC is (relatively) flat, heck even rising through ATH as we are seeing today, and there are tons of altcoins getting pumped 5x, 10x, even 100x, then the total altcoin rise is going to be far greater than the rise in BTC, and BTC will lose market share in Cryptos.

Sure you are describing facts, but what is the relevancy of those facts? I would argue that it is not too relevant, except to assert that the whole space is growing.. and we are taking a kind of snapshot that could play out in a variety of ways, as I think you have already speculated about some of the ways that the scenario could play out.

(05-01-2017 10:25 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  As for community activity, it is important but not always correlated to price. Dogecoin subreddit and general social media at one time had more activity than all the bitcoin activity, but that doesn't mean Dogecoin knocked Bitcoin off the top. When ETH was at a few dollars it was still hard to take it seriously like all new altcoins, so if you gambled then well done, but for every ETH there are dozens of altcoins that make it nowhere, even if they have some new features.

O.k... sure.. but there are more than 1,000 alt coins, no (currently there are 822 that are listed on coinmarketcap)? And maybe around 10 or possibly up to 30, if we are really generous, have some kind of potential meaningful contribution.

(05-01-2017 10:25 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  As I write this all altcoins except one or two are significantly down for the day, BTC going up to new all time high approaching $1500.

Sure looking at the daily movement in trade volume or prices might be helpful, but it is going to be hard to conclude very much just from a change in direction in one day. We probably need a few days, at least to see if there is an actual change in direction, no?

(05-01-2017 10:25 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Also if ETH is that great and people want to talk about it more than BTC in a thread called the Bitcoin thread, maybe it would be a good idea to open a ETH thread so those more interested in ETH can talk about that in detail.

Actually, I don't know why guys are so reluctant to open an ETH thread, especially if some guys are arguing that ETH could be the new shit...

I think that even the ETH pumpers don't even believe themselves about ETH being as sustainable as they make it out to be and they fear that opening an ETH could go the way of the doedo in fairly short period of time... hahahahahahaha

(05-01-2017 10:32 PM)Armogan Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 09:29 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  What do you mean by "all in?" Or do you mean that you have some kind of idea regarding my finances? Did you misread something, or do you have some kind of idea regarding the meaning of "all in?"

Gee please leave personal posts out of this thread and stick to the topic. It is called "The Bitcoin Thread". Perhaps, post your personal things in the Everything Else sub-forum.

Maybe you are having difficulties with reading and writing, again?

If a guy makes a comment, and another guy asks the guy to clarify the comment, then the first guy brought up the topic, and my response.. please explain what you mean by "all in." Fair enough, no?

Mogie: you may be having some comrehending difficults, no?

(05-01-2017 10:32 PM)Armogan Wrote:  In other news, BTC crashed up 5% today. What a fantastic time to be alive! I'm thinking Uppity.

You too.. wow!!!!!!!! You are coming around to bitcoin a bit, no? Maybe you decided to buy a few to support the ecosystem? You go, Mogster!!!

(05-01-2017 10:25 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Back to BTC price briefly: currently approaching $1500 but again on no spectacular volume at all. Hard to judge when the real price battle and volatility will begin again.

Actually, sometimes bid and ask walls on an exchange (in this case bitstamp) can be a bit of a reverse indicator, meaning that the BTC price will sometimes travel in the opposite direction as the walls.. meaning that if there are a lot of coins for sale on the order book, then the price is going up and if there are a lot of coins to buy on the order book, then the price is going down. Frequently, contrary to what you would think..

   

In this case, our walls seem to be a bit small towards the upside - not very many people seem to be on the books and trying to sell coins... but like I said, this apparent dynamic could be reverse indicator.... but on the other hand, it could really mean that people are getting less and less inclined to sell their coins and the exchanges are running out of folks willing to sell their coins.. which would mean that the price is going up.. at least for a period of time until people become more inclined to want to sell some of their coins.

Price currently is about $1,422, but there are less than 800 coins for sale to get us to $1,500 and there are only 965 coins for sale to get us to $1,565. That is a pretty thin order book on the upside.


So, for example, if someone puts in an instant buy for 1,000 coins, and pretty soon we are past $1,565 because there are hardly any coins for sale at those price points between $1,422 and $1,565... Sometimes some variation of that kind of fat finger buy will take place - but usually, if there is a fat finger buy of a lot of coins, that will result in a quick move upwards in prices and then a quick return back down to some place around the previous price, even though it ends up removing all the coins from the ask side of the order book.. In such a case, sellers would have to scramble to fill the order book again, and then a challenge to see if there are sellers that want to put their coins up for sale and if they dare?

This post seems quite interesting in terms of describing our current daily weighted average price streak, and also giving some historical references too by linking to a reddit thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=...sg18834452

I think that part of the point is that we are currently on a 9 day streak of highs and the record seems to be 14 days.. and if we stay above $1,228.52 for another 5 days, then we will be in new record territory..

It is not necessarily an easy task, but it is not out of the question based on how we have arrived at our current bullish price point.

Argue all you will about the loss of market share.. I am feeling that we have decent odds for getting somewhere close to 14 days.. although my fingers will be crossed for the next approximate 4.5 days... and let's see what happens? Can we stay above $1,228.52 for that length of time? What are the odds? Maybe a bit less than 50/50 but still pretty good? If we stay above for a longer period than 5 days, then would that not be even more bullish than I am attempting to characterize?

How do you paint this information as negative, unless you are just sitting on the sidelines with bated breath hoping and hoping and hoping that we get a price drop in order that you can assert, "I told you so; bitcoin is broken."

hahahahaha.. .. doesn't anyone agree with me that trolls (aka bitcoin naysayers) are goofballs (I won't name any names), and I am sorry that a lot of guys following this thread have some of these negative feelings in regards to bitcoin.. and the trolls waiting and waiting and waiting for negative bitcoin news? which will come sooner or later, but they have been waiting since $890 in late March 2017.. and before that they were waiting since $600 in August 2016 and before that they were waiting since $400 in April 2016 and before that they were waiting since $250 in September 2015... .. but.. we still be in a bull market.. am I NOT right?.

Why are they going up? Any predictions?

(05-02-2017 08:58 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  Why are they going up? Any predictions?

More buyers than sellers.


The prediction is continuing up, until mid to upper $1500s - that is the first resistance point. If we break through1st resistance point, then the next one will be in the $1800 to $2000 range...

Don't have any ability to predict beyond two resistance points.

On the downside, a correction could be quite a great thing.... so maybe we could get a 25% or more correction at some point (but... will that happen before we get more uppity, or no?... that is the $1500 question)

As for alts, there is contagion in the aire, and the alts may continue to go up.. however, if some alts significantly correct, then that could cause additional upwards pressure (and fuel for BTC) on BTC in order to hold onto your butt heads... who knows, at this point, there could be some variance between the level of correction with various alt coins, rather than any pattern that applies to all of them in some kind of equal way.

You have a different theory? Anyone?

There is some bitcoin is dying theory out there.. we are going to die all the way to $1,600, right mogie?

(05-02-2017 09:12 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(05-02-2017 08:58 AM)el mechanico Wrote:  Why are they going up? Any predictions?

More buyers than sellers.


The prediction is continuing up, until mid to upper $1500s - that is the first resistance point. If we break through1st resistance point, then the next one will be in the $1800 to $2000 range...

Don't have any ability to predict beyond two resistance points.

On the downside, a correction could be quite a great thing.... so maybe we could get a 25% or more correction at some point (but... will that happen before we get more uppity, or no?... that is the $1500 question)

As for alts, there is contagion in the aire, and the alts may continue to go up.. however, if some alts significantly correct, then that could cause additional upwards pressure (and fuel for BTC) on BTC in order to hold onto your butt heads... who knows, at this point, there could be some variance between the level of correction with various alt coins, rather than any pattern that applies to all of them in some kind of equal way.

You have a different theory? Anyone?

There is some bitcoin is dying theory out there.. we are going to die all the way to $1,600, right mogie?

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention, so this deserves it's own post, my various earlier suggestion that in the longer term this upwards price momentum of BTC is likely in the $3k to $5k arena...

Accordingly, you will be fairly safe to sell some BTC in that arena.. more safe to sell in the upper part, but you should not necessarily wait until the upper part to begin to sell... in order to profit from some of this shorter term movements, so begin to sell early and often, but don't sell too much because you want to have some left to sell for the $3 to $5k range - and just in case if I am wrong and the price goes beyond $5k for this current longer term upwards...

Use any proceeds from your sales to buy the dips.

If you no have no BTC to sell.. then Buy the dips and dollar cost average into it. Good luck.