(04-29-2017 10:58 AM)Armogan Wrote:  

(04-29-2017 04:45 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  By the way, can you share your current allocations in Crypto, Armogan? How about fiat investments, you have any? How much of your cash flow do you dedicate to investing on an ongoing basis more or less?

Zero. Never bought or owned a computer coin in my life. Is now a good price to buy BTC?

So your non-bitcoin or anti-bitcoin posture is relevant to this thread because you are trying to convince people to either not invest in bitcoin, to invest in alts?

Seems a bit off topic to me, especially when there is already a thread for that.

I even think that the origins of this thread had to do with considerations about how to invest in bitcoin and to make money from such investments. Of course, there are all kinds of other possible investments that guys can make, besides bitcoin or to leverage with bitcoin or otherwise complement their bitcoin related considerations, whether that is buying and accumulating, trading or even shorting.

(04-29-2017 10:58 AM)Armogan Wrote:  Fiat? Yeah $25m cash, homie. Bills.

Sure.. you are kind of deviating from the point of my post, and that was merely asking you the extent to which you have various other kinds of fiat related investments or diversification.... those kinds of considerations can certainly affect your approach to bitcoin or any other investment. For example, some people get a little bit nervous when they are thinking about investing, because they think that they have to invest a lot in order to get good returns or to accomplish their objectives. However, the more you get to know about investing and the more that you have accumulated various positions, the more you realize that you can achieve some kinds of diversification goals without investing too much or even leveraging.. and still accomplish decent objectives.

I frequently suggest that anybody get at least 1% of their quasi-liquid funds stake in bitcoin - but maybe those kinds of recommendations could vary depending on the already existing allocations - Of course we recognize that there are some areas or kinds of investments that are similar to one another - yet with crypto we are still having some difficulties figuring out if they are going to move in the same direction of one asset class or another if an inverse price direction might play out.

(04-29-2017 10:58 AM)Armogan Wrote:  Cash flow? 100k a week. Decent.

maybe I was a bit vague? I thought that I was referring to new money coming in.

So if you are involved in financial activities you may also be circulating cash, and I was not really referring to that.

I doubt that you have $100k new money coming in every week.

Even if you are circulating $100k of your personal funds weekly that would put you in a category that seems to be out of the norm of the kinds of issues of this thread..

I do understand how circulating cash can sometimes add up quite a bit.... and I had some issues with that when I was running some of my cashflows through my bank. There certainly can be some learning issues, whether that is having accounts shut down or funds temporarily frozen, and even sometimes reporting considerations.

(04-29-2017 10:58 AM)Armogan Wrote:  What about you? How many computer coins you got?

I don't want to have to sort through my posts again, because you already asked this question a couple of times, and I already answered.. I doubt that my answer changed

To supplement whatever I said earlier and maybe add some new value, I do frequently find that whether we are talking interweb posting or real life, people have a hard time talking about percentages or even employing the concept the same way whether we are talking about 1 coin, or 10 coins or 100 coins or 1000 coins.

The fewer the amount of coins sometimes causes extreme and risky behavior, but sometimes those kinds of specifics may be relevant - especially if guy is just starting out his investment and he says that he has $10k in x and he is considering putting $4k in y.

So, initially when I started investing in bitcoin in November 2013, I allocated a specific amount of dollars that I was going to invest over 6 months. Then after the first 6 months, I reassessed my situation and the level of my allocation, and really by the end of the first year (which was pretty much the end of 2014), I felt that I had pretty much allocated in accordance with my overall goal to feel comfortable with the level (like I had a sufficient enough stake).

Thereafter, I began to think more in terms of percentages and maintaining percentages and a system and dollar cost averaging on an ongoing supplemental basis. These concepts were tweaked a bit too, when I started trading in October 2015, which caused me to sell on the way up - which was kind of always in the plan, but never played out because as we know the price went down for all of 2014 and the price remained relatively flat through a large majority of 2015.

(04-29-2017 10:58 AM)Armogan Wrote:  

(04-29-2017 05:09 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-29-2017 01:13 AM)Armogan Wrote:  Gee, that came out wrong. I'm in Black Out City. Everyone else should be too with days like these.

I guess I am not following whatever is the reason for black out? You talking about electronic black out.. and there is some kind of reason that everyone should? Maybe I am too out of touch.. about whatever is your topic.

This went over your head. Yes an electronic black out. I turned off all my lights in my house and sat in the darkness.

Your choice, I suppose - at least, it seems better if by choice.

(04-29-2017 03:17 PM)Ray Carlton Wrote:  So what is going on in the market right now?

As I type these numbers, we have the following:

- Ripple - 30% up in the last 24h
- Golem - 28 % up
- Dash - 20% up
- Zcash - 12% up

Other coins also performed quite well last week.

So what is causing those movements?

momentum, contagion, speculation, positive feelings about crypto, generally...

Also, could be related to overall upward prices of bitcoin, too... similar thing happened in late 2013... other cryptos outperformed bitcoin for certain short periods.

Anyone else?

Some folks like to assert fundamentals, then you gotta attempt to study each one to make those kinds of assertions, no?

(04-29-2017 03:44 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-29-2017 03:17 PM)Ray Carlton Wrote:  So what is going on in the market right now?

As I type these numbers, we have the following:

- Ripple - 30% up in the last 24h
- Golem - 28 % up
- Dash - 20% up
- Zcash - 12% up

Other coins also performed quite well last week.

So what is causing those movements?

momentum, contagion, speculation, positive feelings about crypto, generally...

Also, could be related to overall upward prices of bitcoin, too... similar thing happened in late 2013... other cryptos outperformed bitcoin for certain short periods.

Anyone else?

Some folks like to assert fundamentals, then you gotta attempt to study each one to make those kinds of assertions, no?

There may be some sense that blockchains are being conceptualized together...

The below article seems to relate to the point about the rise, competitiveness and disruptiveness of "blockchain"


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-28...n-industry

This is the most massive crazy pump ever.

Does everyday not feel like this for everyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7yfISlGLNU

(04-30-2017 01:01 PM)Armogan Wrote:  This is the most massive crazy pump ever.

Does everyday not feel like this for everyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7yfISlGLNU

Based on context, since you seem to be referring to "everyone" as a kind of diluted reference to alt coins, I will take your comment as quasi-related to this thread.

Certainly, there continues to remain some tension in the air, even during this kind of jubilation periods... I mean, no matter what we have continued and ongoing AMAZING times in our presence.

There are so many scenarios that could play out, including one in which all of Crypto currency market cap rises an additional 5x to 10x, and maybe even possible that bitcoin might only receive 1/3 or less of that additional market cap increase..

But, that is only one possible scenario - as I continue to assert and will likely to continue to assert based on what I frequently read in this thread, anyone who claims to know the future with any kind of approximation of certainty if full of shit.

And, I will even accept (meaning not protest as harshly), if a guy asserts a version of the future that is based on a real high probability, such as 80%, rather than framing matters as black and white and with scenarios that are anywhere above 95% certainty. In this regard, the shorter the period of time, the more reasonable that we might consider a prediction that has a real high percentage value attached to it.

New all time high reached within the past 15 minutes, and 500 coins at $1,357 on Stamp.

Will be interesting to witness whether those coins are bought slowly, bought quickly or the wall of coins is pulled.

The quicker we get through those coins, the more bullish will be the likely scenario.... for bitcoin, and possibly for other coins too.

Sometimes the upwards price pressure is simultaneous with other coins, but sometimes, there will be movements that are opposite, as well - even within the ongoing upwards pressures.. So, it can be difficult to tell if more than one will continue to pump, and which ones will experience higher pumps (or dumps) at the end of the day, yet one thing seems to be to expect higher levels of volatility when we have various simultaneous ATHs being breached..


Edit:
FUCK THE MANIPULATOR!!!!!!!!! Playing on my emotions and screwing up the contents of my above post!!!!

Within minutes after my above posting, I went back to look at the Bitstamp order book, and I see that the the sell wall of 500 coins at $1,357 has been pulled... either the MANIPULATOR seems to have chicken shitted about getting those coins bought up... let's see? Those 500 coins had been up for sale, at that sell point, for at least a couple of weeks, it seems... and now, all of a sudden, PEWF!!! GONZIE!!!!

Maybe it does not matter in the end, but I was kind of looking forward to see those 500 coins get bought up all at once... hahahahahaha.. on our way to $1,400 and beyond and maybe in the upper $1500 is looking like decent odds..

but yeah, there are no guarantees with any of this, and the 500 coin wall could appear again at any price point between here and $1,400 or at some other price point or even within minutes of it having had been pulled... furthermore, if this matter kind of settles down and does not go past the new ATH of $1,354 (which I doubt and believe way too early to call that) - then maybe the $1,357 wall will reappear.. as I kind of barrier - that seems to be a bit less credible now that we have seen that the seller may not want to sell under certain condition, but may be willing to sell under other kinds of conditions - maybe in order to attempt to keep the price from going up??? could be?

(04-30-2017 01:01 PM)Armogan Wrote:  This is the most massive crazy pump ever.

This isn't just a pump.

Back in December, when Bitcoin was passing the $1,000 mark, I posted this speculative Bitcoin adoption/price theory, which basically claimed that bitcoin exhibited a fractal growth pattern of ever-increasing Gartner hype cycles. Nerd speak for stair-stepping exponential growth, essentially.

I was very disappointed (to say the least) when Bitcoin crashed the first week of 2017, and when it crashed again following the ETF decision I essentially wrote off the theory. Bitcoin's price had followed the hype cycle pattern to a T since its inception, but with the scaling debate dragging things down I thought perhaps we might have reached the final "slope of enlightenment," and that we'd simply grow slowly and steadily from here on out.

As it's looking now, though, I don't believe I/the theory was wrong...we just weren't looking at the entire data set. Take a look at the market cap of the crypto sphere as a whole:



It took roughly four years (January 2009 - March 2013) for Bitcoin to go from nothing to a $1 billion market cap.

We touched $10B later that year (really more like ~$15B, I round down to keep things at a nice logarithmic scale), but we really only solidified that as a support level in late 2016.

But now...I mean, just look at the chart above. We're going fucking parabolic. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit $100B by the end of the year.

To be honest, I had been something of a Bitcoin maximalist since I got into the space. It introduced me to crypto, it made me a LOT of money, and it still has an enormous amount of potential. Who knows, maybe we'll solve the scaling debate in the near future and Bitcoin will continue to blaze a path forward.

But at the moment, it's undeniable that Bitcoin is stagnating, and that stagnation has lead to an explosion of innovation elsewhere:

-the growth of Ethereum not just as a currency, but as a global computing network/smart contracts platform

-the introduction of crypto platforms in general (as opposed to merely different feature-based coins) like Syscoin and Shadowcash/Particl (decentralized marketplaces), Stratis and Factom (blockchain development) or Iconomi (digital asset management/crypto hedge funds), whose ability to bring in fresh fiat gives them a value above and beyond mere speculation

-the proliferation of privacy coins (Dash, PIVX, Zcash, Monero), which provide a crucial feature Bitcoin currently lacks

-the ability to crowdsource funds through initial coin offerings (ICOs), which will revolutionize the VC space

And that's just the big stuff off the top of my head.

In summary, I believe we are experiencing the first leg of a massive, unprecedented explosion in the crypto arena.

I've kept a small amount (~20%) of my portfolio in Bitcoin, but more as a store of value than a growth asset. About half of my crypto money has moved to Ether, and the other ~30% is spread across a half dozen other coins, some of which I plan to hold long-term, others I'll trade in the short term to add to my Ether stack, which I think has much more growth potential than Bitcoin at the moment.

When I have time I'll post more about my current holdings and plans for the future. For now, I'm scrambling to read as much as I can about the latest developments in the space while honing my technical analysis in order to trade what I believe will be the biggest bull run crypto has ever seen.

Buckle up, fellas. We are just getting started here.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 01:01 PM)Armogan Wrote:  This is the most massive crazy pump ever.

This isn't just a pump.

Back in December, when Bitcoin was passing the $1,000 mark, I posted this speculative Bitcoin adoption/price theory, which basically claimed that bitcoin exhibited a fractal growth pattern of ever-increasing Gartner hype cycles. Nerd speak for stair-stepping exponential growth, essentially.

I was very disappointed (to say the least) when Bitcoin crashed the first week of 2017, and when it crashed again following the ETF decision I essentially wrote off the theory. Bitcoin's price had followed the hype cycle pattern to a T since its inception, but with the scaling debate dragging things down I thought perhaps we might have reached the final "slope of enlightenment," and that we'd simply grow slowly and steadily from here on out.

Sure, we can have differing opinions regarding how to frame matters, and no problem with that - like Stun mentioned, possible to disagree without being disagreeable.

Anyhow, I think that you are getting things a bit wrong when you are expecting some kind of straight line exponential growth, whether that is in bitcoin or any other crypto.

Sure, there may be periods of straight-line, but there are also going to corrections in between that may not show up in the zoom-out retrospect.

So, referring to the two price corrections of earlier this year as "crashes" seems considerably off base.

Those two "corrections" were quite healthy for an asset that is in bitcoin's current situation and the fact that there had not been much of any kind of correction from $600 until we got to about $1,140... .. that is just amazing in itself and bullish. and the upwards trajectory of bitcoin continues, even though, as you mentioned, we had another correction (which you seemingly pessimistically - and possibly jadedly - refer to as a "crash") from $1,350 down to $890.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  As it's looking now, though, I don't believe I/the theory was wrong...we just weren't looking at the entire data set. Take a look at the market cap of the crypto sphere as a whole:



It took roughly four years (January 2009 - March 2013) for Bitcoin to go from nothing to a $1 billion market cap.

We touched $10B later that year (really more like ~$15B, I round down to keep things at a nice logarithmic scale), but we really only solidified that as a support level in late 2016.

But now...I mean, just look at the chart above. We're going fucking parabolic. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit $100B by the end of the year.

Sure, it could happen - but we cannot count on those kinds of things - especially when we have various competing distractions and also possibly considerable amounts of money that may want to keep bitcoin in check or even to pump some other cryptos for the mere sake of making bitcoin look bad... Lot's of money could go into pumping other coins and technologies that are less threatening than bitcoin.. even though those other technologies could also become a problem for mainstream to pump.. Ethereum, happens to be one of their favorites at the moment.. and I would not get too confident in EThereum as the bitcoin 2.0.. in any kind of meaningful way.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  To be honest, I had been something of a Bitcoin maximalist since I got into the space. It introduced me to crypto, it made me a LOT of money, and it still has an enormous amount of potential. Who knows, maybe we'll solve the scaling debate in the near future and Bitcoin will continue to blaze a path forward.

I doubt that there needs to be any kind of meaningful resolution of the scaling debate in order for bitcoin to continue to serve as the most disruptive of any of the cryptos.. .. So, as I continue to assert, making bitcoin difficult to change is a feature rather than a bug, and even if you never get a change to the scaling debate, bitcoin is going to remain a considerable threat to mainstream governmental and financial institutions..and maybe even especially if bitcoin does not solve it's scaling debate... goes to show, no one is going to easily change bitcoin (that is already a long fucking way from being broken in any kind of meaningful sense - beyond the assertions of the FUDsters)

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  But at the moment, it's undeniable that Bitcoin is stagnating, and that stagnation has lead to an explosion of innovation elsewhere:

Yeah, right... sounds like you are drinking too much Koolaide if you really believe this part.

Look Isaac, it does not matter that much if there are various other coins that might 10x the returns of bitcoin in the short term or even in the long term. There is a lot going on in the bitcoin space, and don't discount bitcoin's ability to adopt, absorb and incorporate a large number of the supposed innovations of these other various distraction alt coins (yeah, I agree that there are innovations that are being tested in other alts.., but we are going to find bugs too, in some of those innovations, and bitcoin investors will be glad that bitcoin did not prematurely "innovate.")

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  -the growth of Ethereum not just as a currency, but as a global computing network/smart contracts platform

Currency? I would not even call bitcoin a currency, but ethereum seems much less fitting in that category...


Yes, we may have some interesting smart contract innovations coming out of Ethereum, so we will need to see how some of that plays out in the coming years.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  -the introduction of crypto platforms in general (as opposed to merely different feature-based coins) like Syscoin and Shadowcash/Particl (decentralized marketplaces), Stratis and Factom (blockchain development) or Iconomi (digital asset management/crypto hedge funds), whose ability to bring in fresh fiat gives them a value above and beyond mere speculation

True that there are going to be some decent fundamental contributions that are identified and developed in various projects, including the ones that you mentioned...

But, in some ways, some of those "innovations" are going to complement bitcoin rather than support a conclusion that bitcoin is either dead or lacking innovation and creativity and value on its own

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  -the proliferation of privacy coins (Dash, PIVX, Zcash, Monero), which provide a crucial feature Bitcoin currently lacks

"lacks" may be a bit of a strong choice of words.. .. nothing wrong to see how some of those experiments play out and to see whether bitcoin is going to want to attempt to absorb any of that.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  -the ability to crowdsource funds through initial coin offerings (ICOs), which will revolutionize the VC space

lots of room for interesting scams too with the crowd sourcing.... So, yeah, we will see how that plays out too.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  And that's just the big stuff off the top of my head.

lot's of good points, and it is really appreciated that guys can bring some substantive discussion to the thread... and especially adding a perspective that is going to differ (especially from mine) because it is way too difficult for any one of us to research into all of these matters.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  In summary, I believe we are experiencing the first leg of a massive, unprecedented explosion in the crypto arena.

Kind of seems like that is where we are at.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  I've kept a small amount (~20%) of my portfolio in Bitcoin, but more as a store of value than a growth asset. About half of my crypto money has moved to Ether, and the other 30% is spread across about a half dozen other coins, some of which I plan to hold long-term, others I'll trade in the short term to add to my Ether stack, which I think has much more growth potential than Bitcoin at the moment.

I agree that certainly, it is a good thing to attempt to apportion in accordance with you views, and you seem to have given a considerable amount of thought to your allocations. Further, you seem to understand that the more alts that you have, the more likely you are going to need to monitor them on a pretty active basis, so yeah, there is probably not any one way that is going to work for a large number of us - so when you share some of your particulars then those kinds of considerations can give decent food for thought for other guys.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  When I have time I'll post more about my current holdings and plans for the future.

look forward to more of that.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  For now, I'm scrambling to read as much as I can about the latest developments in the space while honing my technical analysis in order to trade what I believe will be the biggest bull run the crypto space has ever seen.

And, sure, we know that some sources or information are better than others, and our considerations of sources is likely going to evolve with the passage of time. I am similar in regards to sometimes reconsidering my previous considerations based on some new information or new perspective that I come across in such active interaction with information in the space.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  Buckle up, fellas. We are just getting started here.

seems like it.

By the way...


Think about the situation, guys.

We have trade volume in bitcoin that remains somewhat mediocre.

We have a market cap in ethereum that is currently about 1/3 the market cap of bitcoin.. continuing to narrow the gap (at least in recent times)

We have a trade volume in ethereum that is a bit over half of bitcoin's trade volume (in dollar terms).

We could add in a few other alt coins too, in our considerations, and what would be reasonable conclusions?

One of my conclusions, is about bitcoin, and that any kind of price battle in bitcoin has not really yet begun... We get some hints that a battle may take place, but so far, no battle.

Some might suggest that the trade volume attention in Ethereum causes a logical conclusion that bitcoin is dying, and for me, those kinds of conclusions are wishful thinking rather than the likely greater fall that will come in the Ethereum camp...

Again, nothing is certain, and we are going to see whether folks have hedged their bets enough, whether that is within betting on a narrow number of coins or by diversifying over a number of coins.

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  To be honest, I had been something of a Bitcoin maximalist since I got into the space. It introduced me to crypto, it made me a LOT of money, and it still has an enormous amount of potential. Who knows, maybe we'll solve the scaling debate in the near future and Bitcoin will continue to blaze a path forward.

But at the moment, it's undeniable that Bitcoin is stagnating, and that stagnation has lead to an explosion of innovation elsewhere:

-the growth of Ethereum not just as a currency, but as a global computing network/smart contracts platform

-the introduction of crypto platforms in general (as opposed to merely different feature-based coins) like Syscoin and Shadowcash/Particl (decentralized marketplaces), Stratis and Factom (blockchain development) or Iconomi (digital asset management/crypto hedge funds), whose ability to bring in fresh fiat gives them a value above and beyond mere speculation

-the proliferation of privacy coins (Dash, PIVX, Zcash, Monero), which provide a crucial feature Bitcoin currently lacks

-the ability to crowdsource funds through initial coin offerings (ICOs), which will revolutionize the VC space

And that's just the big stuff off the top of my head.

In summary, I believe we are experiencing the first leg of a massive, unprecedented explosion in the crypto arena.

I've kept a small amount (~20%) of my portfolio in Bitcoin, but more as a store of value than a growth asset. About half of my crypto money has moved to Ether, and the other ~30% is spread across a half dozen other coins, some of which I plan to hold long-term, others I'll trade in the short term to add to my Ether stack, which I think has much more growth potential than Bitcoin at the moment.

Very knowledgeable, objective post. This is what I've been trying to explain to Gee for months, but I am not good with words. People should read this post twice.

I'm not saying that BTC will crash, but I am saying that it's current state does not look good. Despite, the ATH's or moving averages whatever the Gee is posting. They are distractions. You have to look at the bigger picture.

1. BTC has serious scaling issue, that is hampering is future functionality. (ETH will solve this with Casper. Raiden 1,000,000+ tx/sec.)
2. It has proven to not be that private, which is why PIVX and other coins have exploded (ETH will solve this with Zk-SNARKS with metropolis).
3. It's community is extremely toxic and fragmented.
4. There are no prospects, there are no projects, there is no growth. There is no roadmap. Roger Ver said it himself, and he was the biggest maximalist there was.

The only thing holding up BTC at this moment are maximalists like Gee, who have an emotional attachment because they have 95%+ of their net worth in this. They can't see the bigger picture, they refuse too. Instead, they'll label me and pump-and-dumpers, and manipulators, etc.

Basically, everything that BTC has right now, will be solved or provided by other things in the future.

I do believe BTC will survive, but it is not the future, unless things can get sorted out - particularly its scaling issue. It will probably go up, $1,500, $1,600 who knows. But other things will go up more, much better returns as a %.

I'm in this to make money, and anyone else who says they aren't are lying. Objectively, there are more ways to make money in this space. Do some research.

Also, the only chart that should be posted here is not ATH's but the third one down:

Bitcoin Percentage of Total Market Cap

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Bitcoin is up because the whole space is up. It's dominance, however, is shrinking drastically. Sooner or later, once all those things come to fruition that I mentioned above there will be a correction.

Gee, I'm not reading your inevitable rebuttal sentence.....by.....sentence. Good day to you!

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 05:12 PM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  [edited out]

Very knowledgeable, objective post. This is what I've been trying to explain to Gee for months, but I am not good with words. People should read this post twice.

Yeah... you are not good with either reading words or writing words - because you have a tendency to NOT give any weight to ideas that might be contrary to yours without engaging in self-absorbed denigrations.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I'm not saying that BTC will crash, but I am saying that it's current state does not look good.

yes, you have been saying that, but where is the meat? Are you saying that bitcoin price is going to crash? Yes, you have been saying that for a couple of months as bitcoin price has crashed all the way up from $890 to $1,350, and you keep saying bullshit that does not come true, even though maybe sooner or later you are going to be right because the price cannot go up forever, even though it seems to be continuing up.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Despite, the ATH's or moving averages whatever the Gee is posting. They are distractions. You have to look at the bigger picture.

I'm posting distractions? I tend to post about what is going on in various ways in relation to bitcoin, so I don't know how those kinds of posts could be distractions.

You tend to accuse me of doing the very thing that you are doing, which is a tendency to be off topic. and so how could my on topic posts be distractions?

Like anything that is on topic and discusses, agreed and controverted facts, opinion and logic, guys can take those with a grain of salt to come to your own conclusions.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  1. BTC has serious scaling issue, that is hampering is future functionality. (ETH will solve this with Casper)

Look at you. Back to pumping by using of the scaling talking point.

Ethereum has a lots of problems, and here you are trying to suggest that it is some kind of bitcoin replacement, competing with bitcoin and competing with attention in the bitcoin thread.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  2. It has proven to not be that private, which is why PIVX and other coins have exploded (ETH will solve this with Zk-SNARKS with metropolis).

yes.. lot's of people thought that bitcoin was more private than it is. Seg wit could help and if seg wit does not implement, then there will likely be other safeguards that people can attempt to employ... but in the end, transactions in bitcoin are public, and users need to account for those kinds of considerations when using bitcoin.

Yes, you are pumping features of ETH and want to compete, some more.. asserting some kind of supposed ETH superiority.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  3. It's community is extremely toxic and fragmented.

What the fuck are you talking about? You expect some kind of kumbai ya? with a decentralized system?

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  4. There are no prospects, there are no projects, there is no growth.

Bare assertions are not going to get you anywhere... But, hey we live in a world where people claim all kinds of shit...

Bitcoin is growing all around the world but for some reason it is not? Go figure?

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  There is no roadmap. Roger Ver said it himself, and he was the biggest maximalist there was.

There needs to be a roadmap? Sounds like the desires of a centralized system. bitcoin is one of those things that if you find a use for it or value in it, then you can invest into it.. if you think that there needs to be a roadmap, then maybe you find something else..

Citing roger ver as a used to be bitcoin maximalist seems crazy..,.

We know that Roger Ver is not exactly a good source for anything pro-bitcoin at the moment..

He aims to break bitcoin with his nonsense sabotage attempts.. he is emotional currently..

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  The only thing holding up BTC at this moment are maximalists like Gee, who have an emotional attachment because they have 95%+ of their net worth in this.

Who said this you dip wad?

I said that I have a bitcoin investment fund, and at one point the allocation in that fund was about 95% bitcoin and 5% cash.

Currently my allocation in that bitcoin related fund is 90% bitcoin and 10% cash.

You are purposefully describing something that does not exist because you are trying to distract into irrelevance and to make shit up, and you are not really trying to engage in any kind of sharing of information..

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  They can't see the bigger picture, they refuse too. Instead, they'll label me and pump-and-dumpers, and manipulators, etc.

If you start to engage in meaningful discussions, I have no problem with that...

Go ahead.... your nonsense posts and your misinformation attacks and competition causes the antagonism that you are attempting to achieve...

Give us a little substance, then maybe that could help.. if you are not beyond help.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Basically, everything that BTC has right now, will be solved or provided by other things in the future.

Like what?

Have you mentioned anything that is a decentralized immutable and secure way to hold and transfer value? Bitcoin has such. Are you saying that ethereum has the same thing? or some other blockchain has that? Which one? Go ahead name one? You really like to spread nonsense by vague accusations, no?

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I do believe BTC will survive, but it is not the future, unless things can get sorted out - particularly its scaling issue.

Yes, the most recent talking point about Bitcoin's supposed need to solve a supposed problem.

Contrary to your assertion, bitcoin does not need to solve such a problem.... even though some resolutions could come to it.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  It will probably go up, $1,500, $1,600 who knows. But other things will go up more, much better returns as a %.

Yes, it may go up and it may not go up. The success of bitcoin is not merely it's price - even though it has been going up quite a bit, lately, and seems quite inclined for more...

Why turn that into a negative, and why assert that you believe that alt coins will continue to out perform bitcoin... maybe they will and maybe they won't..

There a lot of ways to invest in order to attempt to hedge bets and guys should be able to make those kinds of decisions.

What are you suggesting a guy to do who has $3k right now and another $3k over then next 6 months? He does not own any crypto. What should he do?

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I'm in this to make money, and anyone else who says they aren't are lying.

nothing wrong with making money... but there are also needs to consider risks, as well and to consider comfortable allocation of risk based on a variety of personal considerations.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Objectively, there are more ways to make money in this space. Do some research.

Also, the only chart that should be posted here is not ATH's but the third one down:

Bitcoin Percentage of Total Market Cap

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

Bitcoin is up because the whole space is up. It's dominance, however, is shrinking drastically. Sooner or later, once all those things come to fruition that I mentioned above there will be a correction.

of course there are a variety of charts, and some charts have more weight than others.

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Gee, I'm not reading your inevitable rebuttal sentence.....by.....sentence. Good day to you!

Of course, you are not going to read my rebuttal because you are not really into attempting to stick to reality, you merely want to make your dumbass, distracting, personal attacking and misinformative talking points, which you did.

Quote:O.k. Let me give a shot for 3 years.

I am going to frame the question how I would like to frame it and that will be regarding the various price points that I believe bitcoin can touch upon both to the upside and to the downside anytime between 2 years and 4 years (that way 3 years is in the middle) (with my current knowledge and expectations at the moment I type):

$1150 to $1,450 40-60%
$1,450 to $2,500 about 45%
$2500 to $3,500 about 30%
$3,500 to $4500 about 25%
$4,500 to $5,500 about 15%
$5,500 to $10,000 <10%
$10,000 to $20,000 <5%
$20,000 to $40,000 < 3%
$40,000 to $100,000 < 1%

Those estimates are more conservative than I thought. If you believe this to be so, then hell, diversifying into a couple altcoins might have been a fair idea. (Though of course I would not buy ETC at 7 bucks now or LTC at 16 bucks etc., let alone this think called Golem, which I first thought might be a Pokemon and also that creature from LOTR...) You would have had those approximate probabilities in mind when ETC was 1 or 2 bucks and LTC was 3 or 4 bucks. I think 10 years is a hell of a long time in the Cryptocurrency space. It's been only around 8 years IIRC and look how far it has come. We are coming off a long ass period of consolidation in BTC which has lasted 3 years of that time. You mention quite rightly the distinctly unspectacular volume as BTC quietly makes a new ATH. I say quietly because right now seems to be the time of the altcoins. Some may say a shift towards easier to manipulate smaller cap altcoins but ETH is coming into the multiple billions so that is hardly insignificant. The other altcoins combined just add to this inflated total Cryptocurrency market cap but BTC is only a few bucks above the previous ATH 3 years ago.

Either as you suggest as a small possibility altcoins are taking over, BTC is now too difficult to manipulate for big enough quick pump/dump gains, or simply we are experiencing a bubble in altcoins which will pop, or just an increase as BTC has increased greatly over the years.

What I do think is that as the price clears the approximately 1300-1400 ATH, on unspectacular volume, the further it goes the more likely we are to see the next movement up, say to $3-$5k. Who knows exactly where in these crazy times, but when the real price battle begins (because again correctly you have noted no real price battle has taken place to breach the ATH and BTC is definitely taking a backseat to all the altcoin craziness at the moment), that's when the true "next move" will take place. Maybe we will just continue to creep up the same amount as we have over the next 2 years as the last 2 years, without any real battle, so up another $1000, BTC becoming slower and more stable in its movements, offering lower risk/reward profile than the triple your money quick altcoins. So that would be ~$2500 in 2 years, $3000 in 3 years at current pace.

The other scenario going up is a big price battle with a new significantly higher ATH relatively quickly established, the usual crash, return to ATH, followed by possibly complex multi year correction. A quick double to $3000 or triple to $5000, or maybe, as the $10-$250 move, something more outlandish like $10,000. I'd say that is less likely now because of BTC far higher market cap than at $10 but such a move wouldn't exactly be atypical BTC behavior.

Perhaps because of the BU drama and/or chinese exchange problems, BTC price is "sleeping" right now and all these random altcoins are currently in the limelight. But what we know from history of these Cryptocurrencies is, assuming you can predict that the coin is not so low priced because it's dying, the massive profits are made when purchases are made of what appears to be a "quiet" "wallowing" "unloved" Cryptocurrency, because by the time it is on everyone's lips it's most likely too late unless you have a tolerance for risk of buying high in the hope of continuation of trend to ride the train a little bit longer. (I admit I was tempted to do this in both ETC and DOGE but I must stick resolutely by my principles. Still kicking myself for being a lazy shit and not buying ETC at $2.4 because it didn't have a dedicated wallet.)

The question, as with all "quiet" "unloved" assets is: is the quiet justified? Will BTC indeed die a slow, quiet death? Or will it continue to stumble quietly upwards? Are the big exponential booms of BTC price over? Is it now the turn of the altcoins forever, because currently altcoins are in the spotlight, and BTC is quiet and unloved? Or is this just another type of cycle we are seeing play out? Or will BTC, once this boom cycle of the altcoins is over, once again take the spotlight, as altcoin billions and new billions shift into BTC for the next leg up? Just because BTC is quiet now, and altcoins are killing it right now, doesn't mean this will last forever.

JJG, your conservative estimate of ~20% for $5000 within 3 years versus mine of 50% within 3 years are just that: estimates. If BTC has another true spike, a real price battle, it can go to $3000 or $5000 much quicker than that. It all depends on whether we see a slow and steady rise, or a proper "next leg up" which after 3 years of correction seems less likely bar some freak event that destroys BTC entirely or damages it significantly enough to collapse the price. If you only have a 20% for $5000 within 3 years estimate, then from today's price of $1400, you could argue (0.2)x(5000/1400) = approximately 70% annual return could be beaten elsewhere if you diversified to exponentially increasing altcoins, or at least the more major altcoins with bigger growth (pump) potential by virtue of having a smaller (pumpable) market cap. (Erm, oh yeah, and all that extra... super... technology... and apps... and stuff...) Heck maybe I am biting off my own nose to spite my face in not buying ETC right now. It's the original (i.e. actual) Ethereum and I said it seemed undervalued at 5% of the forked ETH. But even at $7 who knows it could go to $50 with continued pumping for a cool 7x return. And that can happen within a few months. A more extreme example is Siacoin for all intents and purposes a pump and dump coin looking completely dead at a measly 3 satoshis (yes 0.00000003 BTC) and now just as useless as it was before 90 satoshis on Poloniex within a few months.

Who really knows what the hell will happen in a space where digital tokens called "Dogecoin" have more than 100 billion in circulation and are actually one of the more credible shitcoins. The question is whether you believe the age of big percentage moves in BTC is dead, and that has now been handed over to the altcoins, or whether you simply believe BTC is quiet, still alive as ever but biding its time, ready for the next explosion, the next real price battle, and to take back the headlines from the likes of Golem, ZCash, Dogecoin, Monero, Litecoin, Maidsafecoin, Siacoin and whatever other new gimmick happens to launch in the next few months.

I think that anything is possible in the next few years. While Bitcoin has a lot of weight and momentum behind, Ethereum has some real heavyweight supporters of its own, and it definitely has the better tech. But I also think it's also true that the price of btc is somewhat frozen at the moment, due to scaling issues. The only thing that's certain is that the entire crypto market is growing.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  

Quote:O.k. Let me give a shot for 3 years.

I am going to frame the question how I would like to frame it and that will be regarding the various price points that I believe bitcoin can touch upon both to the upside and to the downside anytime between 2 years and 4 years (that way 3 years is in the middle) (with my current knowledge and expectations at the moment I type):

$1150 to $1,450 40-60%
$1,450 to $2,500 about 45%
$2500 to $3,500 about 30%
$3,500 to $4500 about 25%
$4,500 to $5,500 about 15%
$5,500 to $10,000 <10%
$10,000 to $20,000 <5%
$20,000 to $40,000 < 3%
$40,000 to $100,000 < 1%

Those estimates are more conservative than I thought.

Yeah, it is funny that when we get into actual numbers, then it really helps to pinpoint from a where a person is coming.. and even cause a bit more concreteness in the discussion.

And, like I said, those were a snapshot, and maybe a few days later I might tweak my considerations and even a few months later the numbers may come out differently.

I like to consider that I am not locked into my thinking even though there is a certain amount of steadiness that exists in the numbers and you can see that by comparing my numbers in September 2015 to my numbers in April 2017... but the market's performance between September 2015 and April 2017 causes me to tweak my own predictions and perceptions based on what happened during that time period.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  If you believe this to be so, then hell, diversifying into a couple altcoins might have been a fair idea.

I have no problem diversifying a little bit into alt coins; however, there is only so much time in the day, and in the end, just because those alts exist does not mean that a guy should invest in them. I already tried that, once.

Even Satoshi told me that my idea was dumb in early 2014 when I bought a little of each alt coin that was then offered on BTC-e.. as a kind of gamble... So, lost money on each of those coins, and I did not see any reason to get back into alt coins.. so I am not really inclined to spend time on alt coins... at least not so far... but that is my ongoing personal choice.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  (Though of course I would not buy ETC at 7 bucks now or LTC at 16 bucks etc., let alone this think called Golem, which I first thought might be a Pokemon and also that creature from LOTR...) You would have had those approximate probabilities in mind when ETC was 1 or 2 bucks and LTC was 3 or 4 bucks. I think 10 years is a hell of a long time in the Cryptocurrency space. It's been only around 8 years IIRC and look how far it has come. We are coming off a long ass period of consolidation in BTC which has lasted 3 years of that time.

There is a lot of ways to dabble in alts, and each of us will take a different approach, and maybe for different reason.

In mid 2015 I bought ETC soon after the fork, and I did it partly for ideological reasons and I thought that maybe it could become parity with ETH... I was not really trying to become rich, but I thought that ETC had a decent chance of moving towards ETH.. or ETH could move towards ETC...

So, I began buying ETC at about $1.50.. and then price went up to nearly $3 and then came back below $1. I think that I stopped buying ETC at around $1 and then just decided to let it play out. My average cost per ETC was around $1.60 or something like that.

I started selling ETC at about $3, and my last sales were around $7, and I believe that I still have about 20% of my original ETC stash that is schedule to finish selling if the price continues to go up.. maybe I will finish selling around $9 if it gets there, or maybe i will change my mind and sell them all.

I don't want to get too far afield here, but I just wanted to say that my strategy was to buy on the way down and to sell on the way up, but I also was thinking about getting rid of ETC, for the most part. I do the same thing with other coins that I buy, but if you decide to buy them while the price is going up, then you may lost your opportunity to get in, unless you employ dollar cost averaging which I would only recommend dollar cost averaging if you are long term (more than 2 years, maybe even longer) bullish on the crypto. I happen to not be long term bullish on any altcoin except for bitcoin.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  You mention quite rightly the distinctly unspectacular volume as BTC quietly makes a new ATH. I say quietly because right now seems to be the time of the altcoins. Some may say a shift towards easier to manipulate smaller cap altcoins but ETH is coming into the multiple billions so that is hardly insignificant. The other altcoins combined just add to this inflated total Cryptocurrency market cap but BTC is only a few bucks above the previous ATH 3 years ago.

Either as you suggest as a small possibility altcoins are taking over, BTC is now too difficult to manipulate for big enough quick pump/dump gains, or simply we are experiencing a bubble in altcoins which will pop, or just an increase as BTC has increased greatly over the years.

I think that the altcoin bubble will pop is the most likely scenario; however, I would not be surprised if there is not some variation in how they pop or even if some alt coins perform a bit contrary to the others.

Of course, the alt coin situation is not 100% speculation and it is not 100% smoke and mirrors, either.

There are some solid fundamentals that are developed in the alt coin space - however, merely because an alt coin has solid fundamentals, that does not mean that the coin will survive or that it will become bitcoin 2.0 or that bitcoin might absorb its innovation in some kind of way.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  What I do think is that as the price clears the approximately 1300-1400 ATH, on unspectacular volume, the further it goes the more likely we are to see the next movement up, say to $3-$5k.

I hate attempting to describe with any kind of certainty because there are kind of momentum scenarios but then at any time manipulators can come in and cause the scenario to play out differently than expected.

Part of the problem that we have currently, is that there has not been any real or meaningful correction since $891.. so we have largely gone steadily up from $890 to our present place. ... that reality causes a considerable incentive to reverse the market and to take profits, for those who have the capital to manipulate.

However, when we get movement passed previous ATH, that causes a bit of jumping on board in the upward rise and the trend is your friend theory kind of plays out which means that it could be much more profitable to manipulate upwards rather than downwards and get another $100 or $200 or even more before making an attempt at the reversal. Therefore, upper $1500s seems very reasonable.. yet at the same time bitcoin has a tendency to overshoot.. so it could go on a bit longer than $1600 before correcting.. and the next resistance point would likely be in the $1800 to $2,000 SunW territory... I hate to say anything further because that is already 2 potential resistance points - and hard to say beyond 2 resistance points, no? And, also the odds are pretty good that we have to readjust anyhow, once a correction takes place.. especially seeming to be quite the more likely scenario before getting past the second resistance point.

And, depending on how quickly we go up and come back down, a small correction is 15% and a more reasonable correction 25% to 35% and a severely large one would be 35% or more.. I can't really see having a correction of more than 50%, but it is not out of the realm of possibilities - but may have to have some more meaningful FUDn or even an actual hard fork or something like that.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Who knows exactly where in these crazy times, but when the real price battle begins (because again correctly you have noted no real price battle has taken place to breach the ATH and BTC is definitely taking a backseat to all the altcoin craziness at the moment),

I would be a little nervous characterizing bitcoin's place as "backseat"

There is a bit of a symbiotic relationship going on here. Alt coins profit from BTC rising in price and BTC rises from money coming into the crypto space (even if such money is going into alts).

So even if alts perform better than BTC on the short term and even if some were to surpass BTC's market cap, none of this is necessarily bad for BTC. I don't even have a problem if ETH were to become 70% dominant and BTC only had 20% of the space... I don't have a problem with that... Let ETH have the space if people want to invest into it, then let them invest, whatever.

It is not like us, as individuals, cannot make some kind of adjustment in our strategy and even stubbornly decide to buy some ETH.. if that seems appropriate.. But we may also decide to keep a large majority of our money in BTC.. .

For example, keeping money in Apple worked pretty well for investors in the 90s and early 2000s... so sometimes use cases, utility and value can take a while to play out.

You can build a portfolio in an asset that might not be performing as strongly as other assets, but the mere fact that other assets are performing better does not necessarily justify that on an individual and personal choice level that you should change your strategy.

Let's say for example, some guy comes into the thread and he says that he made $100k per week for the last 30 weeks on Galum or some other thing, and that should not cause you to invest in Gatleium, right? But you could reconsider your strategy because of information that you hear about and you consider regarding your own situation and your own views and comfort.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  that's when the true "next move" will take place. Maybe we will just continue to creep up the same amount as we have over the next 2 years as the last 2 years, without any real battle, so up another $1000, BTC becoming slower and more stable in its movements, offering lower risk/reward profile than the triple your money quick altcoins. So that would be ~$2500 in 2 years, $3000 in 3 years at current pace.

Of course there are certain triggering points and certain events, but we could hardly expect any kind of straight line trajectory, even though you are correct that the larger the market cap the harder to manipulate and the harder to 10x or 100x.. but I don't think that we should invest expecting 10x or 100x.. even though maybe we can choose various assets with the hope that one or more of them could provide a very great increase, including the possibility of 10x or more.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  The other scenario going up is a big price battle with a new significantly higher ATH relatively quickly established, the usual crash, return to ATH, followed by possibly complex multi year correction.

Actually, you are correct that we could get something like 2013 playing out where we are barely into the beginning of the first of 2 bubbles that will play out over a relatively short period of time.

If we try to become too particular in our description, then likely we are dreaming too much rather than really considering probabilities, even though you are correct that such a scenario could unravel in the coming year or so.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  A quick double to $3000 or triple to $5000, or maybe, as the $10-$250 move, something more outlandish like $10,000. I'd say that is less likely now because of BTC far higher market cap than at $10 but such a move wouldn't exactly be atypical BTC behavior.

I think that if you overly focus on bitcoin's market cap as a limitation then you are likely missing something.. I am not sure about what, but something seems to be missing.

I do think that we have to consider that there are way more ways to short bitcoin these days as compared to 2013, and likely governments and banks have studied bitcoin a bit more and they may want to attempt to employ some strategies to try to keep it from bubbling too much.... so, I doubt that merely the market cap is the limit..

and the other thing going on is that there is an incentive for banks and governments to pump some of the alts in various ways in order to hopefully distract from bitcoin or to cause some discrediting of bitcoin.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Perhaps because of the BU drama and/or chinese exchange problems, BTC price is "sleeping" right now and all these random altcoins are currently in the limelight. But what we know from history of these Cryptocurrencies is, assuming you can predict that the coin is not so low priced because it's dying, the massive profits are made when purchases are made of what appears to be a "quiet" "wallowing" "unloved" Cryptocurrency, because by the time it is on everyone's lips it's most likely too late unless you have a tolerance for risk of buying high in the hope of continuation of trend to ride the train a little bit longer. (I admit I was tempted to do this in both ETC and DOGE but I must stick resolutely by my principles. Still kicking myself for being a lazy shit and not buying ETC at $2.4 because it didn't have a dedicated wallet.)

correct that there is likely some dumping pattern.. but you are also correct that there could be a whole hell of a lot of pump left in a coin and opportunities can be missed if you do not at least pull the trigger.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  The question, as with all "quiet" "unloved" assets is: is the quiet justified? Will BTC indeed die a slow, quiet death?

i doubt it.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Or will it continue to stumble quietly upwards?

I doubt this also.. too much reason to be volatile.. even though we may be experiencing a bit of non volatility.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Are the big exponential booms of BTC price over?

I doubt this too, but it could be the case that BTC will never again get another bubble (not a likely scenario, but a possible one).

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Is it now the turn of the altcoins forever, because currently altcoins are in the spotlight, and BTC is quiet and unloved? Or is this just another type of cycle we are seeing play out? Or will BTC, once this boom cycle of the altcoins is over, once again take the spotlight, as altcoin billions and new billions shift into BTC for the next leg up? Just because BTC is quiet now, and altcoins are killing it right now, doesn't mean this will last forever.

Again, I would not get too distracted by alts, and opportunities that you may have missed.

It does not hurt to dabble in alts, either, but we gotta keep our eyes on the prize, as well.

Some RVF guys are willing to invest 80% or more into alts, and I am not going to blame them for identifying that to be the allocation that they want to pursue, and it could end up being a prudent approach.

There are ways to invest your investment beyond mere initial allocation - including identifying points in which you plan to enter and exit and how and then attempting to follow such planned strategy (or even having some gut instincts, too, regarding what you want to do and attempt to employ). Certainly, each of us should attempt to engage in some actions and not to be paralyzed by over analyzing.. but we do need to have enough analysis to set an approach for ourselves and then to adjust or tweak our approach if we recognize that such approach is not really working for our own views, finances, and risk profile (which we may not really know until we attempt to actually put some of it to practice).

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  JJG, your conservative estimate of ~20% for $5000 within 3 years versus mine of 50% within 3 years are just that: estimates. If BTC has another true spike, a real price battle, it can go to $3000 or $5000 much quicker than that.

Yes, that was my view at the time of the typing. But surely if events pass in a certain way, I will tweak my thinking.

I just don't want to build my expectations too high and then be disappointed.. I would rather error on the side of underexpectations and overperformance... I feel better psychologically, if I keep such frameworks for myself.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  It all depends on whether we see a slow and steady rise, or a proper "next leg up" which after 3 years of correction seems less likely bar some freak event that destroys BTC entirely or damages it significantly enough to collapse the price.

I personally don't try to predict that far in advance because it becomes too much an exercise in futility or maybe placing too much certainty on a situation that has too many variables.

In that regard, we have to see how one leg plays out before we put any kind of degree of certainty on the next leg.

So you are correct, if this leg ends up being exponential, then I think differently than if the leg is slow or flat or if we experience a correction that is much beyond expectations.. and there can be other events too that cause me to not want to attempt to predict beyond one or two resistance points (or contrary the support points... remember that both directions need to be accounted)

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  If you only have a 20% for $5000 within 3 years estimate, then from today's price of $1400, you could argue (0.2)x(5000/1400) = approximately 70% annual return could be beaten elsewhere if you diversified to exponentially increasing altcoins, or at least the more major altcoins with bigger growth (pump) potential by virtue of having a smaller (pumpable) market cap.

Yeah, but if you account for both the upside and the downside, then I don't think that you are justified to put the money in alts rather than in bitcoin.

Sure, I could be wrong, but I just have difficulties allocating very much to any of the alts at any particular time, and I feel that bitcoin already kind of covers me for what I want.

I already have like 70% or more of my total quasi-liquid finances in various dollar related investments, so it is not like I feel like I need to hold a whole bunch of alts, when one of my main reasons for getting into bitcoin was to hedge some of my dollar investments because I did not feel hedged enough... especially i had never gotten into PMs either, so bitcoin serves kind of that role for me too... on a personal level.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  (Erm, oh yeah, and all that extra... super... technology... and apps... and stuff...) Heck maybe I am biting off my own nose to spite my face in not buying ETC right now. It's the original (i.e. actual) Ethereum and I said it seemed undervalued at 5% of the forked ETH. But even at $7 who knows it could go to $50 with continued pumping for a cool 7x return.

I don't really know, but I think both ETH and ETC are kind of fucked - but it could be true that both of them survive and ETC catches up to ETH.. I would not put too much into either of them, but that's just me.

Let's say hypothetically you only have a few BTC, and you have a few hundred dollars that you want to invest in other cryptos. You only have so much money to go around, and that is part of the problem, you are expecting too much returns for how much you have available...

What kind of timeline are you talking about 10 years? 20years? the more time you have the more you can pace it out with dollar cost averaging.

If you have only 10 years, then that might feel a bit more rushed... but you still could try to figure out some kind of dollar cost averaging strategy.

Let's say that you can only scramble up $400 per month to invest in various cryptos. then you have to decide how to allocate them... If you already own a few BTC, then maybe you could allocate the large majority at other possible target Alts.. and maybe you would do $100 in BTC and $300 on other alts .. and personally in crypto I think that weekly DCA is better than monthly.... so maybe you put $25 per week into BTC and you have $75 per week that you can put into various other alts and maybe that would change over time, but you are trying your best to accumulate a position in the various alts... I don't know.. I personally would not dedicate that much to alts, but that is me and my lack of long term bullishness about any alt other than bitcoin.. maybe I have a little possible bullishness about monero.. maybe?

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  And that can happen within a few months. A more extreme example is Siacoin for all intents and purposes a pump and dump coin looking completely dead at a measly 3 satoshis (yes 0.00000003 BTC) and now just as useless as it was before 90 satoshis on Poloniex within a few months.

O.k... besides dollar cost averaging you could identify undervalued alts and take your chances.. ... I don't really have any major problem with that approach, because you could get lucky on one or more of them (or even experiencing a kind of educated guess)..

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Who really knows what the hell will happen in a space where digital tokens called "Dogecoin" have more than 100 billion in circulation and are actually one of the more credible shitcoins.

That's an old fad, but sure it could have some legs.. I don't know.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  The question is whether you believe the age of big percentage moves in BTC is dead, and that has now been handed over to the altcoins,

yep.. if you believe that then your thinking might be a little screwed up... hahahahahaha.. but I understand what you are saying, because if you do think that, then those thoughts are going to affect your approach to the matter.

(04-30-2017 10:46 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  or whether you simply believe BTC is quiet, still alive as ever but biding its time, ready for the next explosion, the next real price battle, and to take back the headlines from the likes of Golem, ZCash, Dogecoin, Monero, Litecoin, Maidsafecoin, Siacoin and whatever other new gimmick happens to launch in the next few months.

It's not really an all or nothing game.. and bitcoin does not have to be number one in order to be a good solid investment.

Yeah, I know some folks say that there can only be one crypto, but in the end, who fucking cares, because it could take 100years or more to play out, and what good is that going to do for us now. We might not even be around in 50 years, but we still may want to plan for a longer period - even when the shorter period is more relevant.

In order to make you happy, I don't know? You could try to just focus on a few coins.. and then invest for a while.. build up a bit of a stake in various coins and as you build up more of a stake, then hopefully some of them will become positive equity which makes it a bit easier, but not always super easy if you are attempting to contemplate too many coins at any one time and if you are kicking yourself regarding some of you missed opportunities, which is almost inevitable in this kind of space.

(05-01-2017 12:06 AM)Thoughtcrime Wrote:  I think that anything is possible in the next few years. While Bitcoin has a lot of weight and momentum behind, Ethereum has some real heavyweight supporters of its own, and it definitely has the better tech. But I also think it's also true that the price of btc is somewhat frozen at the moment, due to scaling issues. The only thing that's certain is that the entire crypto market is growing.

So, you don't want to make any price predictions? Based on your chosen phraseology, you seem to think that ETH and BTC have some equivalencies and ETH has a greater upside potential...

one thing is tech, and another thing is:

1) decentralized

2) immutable

3) secure

4) value transfer and storage...


Which coins have these 4?

Bitcoin has it - without getting into the various network effects.

Any other coins have the 4 (whether they have network effects or not)?

There is more to this whole situation beyond "tech", no?

You think that bitcoin's price is frozen.. so is it topped out in the $1360s or below $1400 or below $1600 or below $2k?

Your thinking seems to be a bit off here if you are describing bitcoin as frozen..

gosh... do you know where the BTC price is at this moment? We should be looking at rockets and trains and fireworks, no? I have ATH flashing on my screen all day..

We had 5 days in a row of higher daily weighted ATH averages.. that is fucking amazing.. 5 days and a new ATH every day in the last 5 days. That is much beyond frozen, if you somehow want to characterize bitcoin as frozen, it seems quite far from the reality of bitcoin's current amazing state of being.. ..

The more likely scenario is that we have an impeding BTC price battle that is inbound...

When is it going to happen? at what price point, inWhich direction?

Frozen seems to be the lesser of any likely scenario that is coming in the coming weeks when we have unprecedented highs and ongoing and upwards price pressures.

^^Is that post above real? How long did it take you to write that?

(04-30-2017 10:44 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Very knowledgeable, objective post. This is what I've been trying to explain to Gee for months, but I am not good with words. People should read this post twice.

Yeah... you are not good with either reading words or writing words - because you have a tendency to NOT give any weight to ideas that might be contrary to yours.

I'm extremely objective; I love to hear the other side of the coin. And I do give weight to you ideas contrary to my own, yours particularly I give negative weighting. Reading them hurt me, and others too I believe.

(04-30-2017 10:44 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I'm not saying that BTC will crash, but I am saying that it's current state does not look good.

yes, you have been saying that, but where is the meat? Are you saying that bitcoin price is going to crash? Yes, you have been saying that for a couple of months as bitcoin price has crashed all the way up from $890 to $1,350, and you keep saying bullshit that does not come true, even though maybe sooner or later you are going to be right because the price cannot go up forever, even though it seems to be continuing up.

I just gave you the substance behind that above. Scaling issues, long transaction times, high fees, no innovation the space, China controls mining, can't buy drugs with it anymore. Community in-fighting.

I never said once that BTC was going to crash, you're so biased its unreal. I said that there are other opportunities in the space that will out perform BTC. This has proven to be true.

Let's see what you've been wrong about:

1. BTC ETF - fail.
2. China doesn't control mining - fail.
3. Gaulem is a LOTR character - partial fail.
4. Capital asset taxation for coins. You specifically said not every sale is a taxable event. this is false. They all are. Fail. Stop spreading bad information to RVFer's

So many more. You're never really right about anything. All you do is post charts after they happen. Add very little value, no insight. Zero substance.

(05-01-2017 12:32 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I have no problem diversifying a little bit into alt coins; however, there is only so much time in the day, and in the end, just because those alts exist does not mean that a guy should invest in them. I already tried that, once. So, lost money on each of those coins, and I did not see any reason to get back into alt coins

You would have more time if you didn't write novels about BTC that have zero substance. Zero substance.

So in other words, you made some shitty investments, they didn't work out so you swore off everything except BTC until the end of time? Sounds aggrieved.

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  ^^Is that post above real? How long did it take you to write that?

A few minutes.. bots type fast.

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 10:44 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Very knowledgeable, objective post. This is what I've been trying to explain to Gee for months, but I am not good with words. People should read this post twice.

Yeah... you are not good with either reading words or writing words - because you have a tendency to NOT give any weight to ideas that might be contrary to yours.

I'm extremely objective; I love to hear the other side of the coin.

yeah, right. That would be good to see in actual practice, rather than assertions.

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  And I do give weight to you ideas contrary to my own, yours particularly I give negative weighting. Reading them hurt me, and others too I believe.

It hurts to read stuff that you do not understand but claim to understand.

If it hurts, then no need to read the words.. you can read whatever words make you feel better.

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 10:44 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 09:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I'm not saying that BTC will crash, but I am saying that it's current state does not look good.

yes, you have been saying that, but where is the meat? Are you saying that bitcoin price is going to crash? Yes, you have been saying that for a couple of months as bitcoin price has crashed all the way up from $890 to $1,350, and you keep saying bullshit that does not come true, even though maybe sooner or later you are going to be right because the price cannot go up forever, even though it seems to be continuing up.

I just gave you the substance behind that above. Scaling issues, long transaction times, high fees, no innovation the space, China controls mining, can't buy drugs with it anymore. Community in-fighting.

Most of that is bullshit, but o.k. I appreciate that you at least gave some conclusory reasons why you believe bitcoin is inferior..

In some sense, you can find some reasons for your assertions, but there are stronger reasons contrary to your assertions. I believe selectively choosing is a kind of spin.. and maybe that is what you are doing .. ? Spinning?

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  I never said once that BTC was going to crash, you're so biased its unreal.

If I mischaracterized your assertions, I appologize.

I have no intention to be biased or to be disingenuous with my characterizations of your position.

On the other hand, I frequently find either your positions or your attacks on me to be ridiculous and unnecessary, but that does not mean that I would purposefully mischaracterize you..


So, yeah, if you are capable of engaging in an adult conversation and really attempt to get into substance, then no problem.. I will try to characterize your positions accurately.

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  I said that there are other opportunities in the space that will out perform BTC. This has proven to be true.

Outperform in what way? You mean short term prices.. o.k. yes.. that is likely to happen, especially when the whole space is pumping like it is...

so you are saying a statement that is concededly likely to be true, but that does not necessarily justify that someone new to crypto should not consider investing in bitcoin .. so guys have to decide for themselves based on more than an assertion that some other coins are likely to "outperform" bitcoin... how is a guy going to invest? Guy has got to chose... no? Guy has got to chose for himself, no?

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  Let's see what you've been wrong about:

Back, to your previous nonsense talking points.

Hare to take you seriously when you just want to bring up nonsense.

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  1. BTC ETF - fail.
2. China doesn't control mining - fail.
3. Gaulem is a LOTR character - partial fail.
4. Capital asset taxation for coins. You specifically said not every sale is a taxable event. this is false. They all are. Fail. Stop spreading bad information to RVFer's

I'm not going to go through these one by one distractions, because they merely seem to be an attempt to go into weeds rather than really talking about anything of meaning..

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  So many more. You're never really right about anything. All you do is post charts after they happen. Add very little value, no insight. Zero substance.

I post whatever I find to be interesting, and most of the time, I attempt to put at least a bit of an explanation regarding why I find whatever post or chart or link to have been interesting and/or relevant to a point that I would like to make... or just to inform guys who might be interested.

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 12:32 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I have no problem diversifying a little bit into alt coins; however, there is only so much time in the day, and in the end, just because those alts exist does not mean that a guy should invest in them. I already tried that, once. So, lost money on each of those coins, and I did not see any reason to get back into alt coins

You would have more time if you didn't write novels about BTC that have zero substance. Zero substance.

Are you hoping that if you keep saying zero substance over and over that either it will become true or others will begin to believe it?

I just looked up that after this post, I will have 1,620 posts in this thread.. and according to you "zero substance."

Now you, on the other hand, you tend to post substance, right? substance about bitcoin? or substance about some other topic?

(05-01-2017 12:55 AM)Armogan Wrote:  So in other words, you made some shitty investments, they didn't work out so you swore off everything except BTC until the end of time? Sounds aggrieved.

That is not what I said...

I suppose that I could attempt to splain this a bit more to you.. but you are not likely to either read it or understand anyhow, right?

you just aim for your own conclusions, right?

my actual words hurt you , right?

You can ask more if you like, but my short explanation is that when I first got into bitcoin I made a blanket investment into about 7 alt coins without really thinking about it or having a strategy. They all lost money.... but that does not necessarily mean that investing in alts is a bad idea, but only more likely to be a bad idea if a guy merely invests broadly without having any further plan regarding follow up or maintenance or exit.. that was my main point in bringing up that particular experiential angle.

(04-30-2017 05:50 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Anyhow, I think that you are getting things a bit wrong when you are expecting some kind of straight line exponential growth, whether that is in bitcoin or any other crypto.

Sure, there may be periods of straight-line, but there are also going to corrections in between that may not show up in the zoom-out retrospect.

I said I expect our market cap to grow to ~$100B in the near future, I never said there wouldn't be any corrections. But like you wrote, on a long-term time chart it'll appear to go vertical - like it has multiple times in the past - because we're looking at extreme, exponential growth.

Quote:So, referring to the two price corrections of earlier this year as "crashes" seems considerably off base.

I should have used the word "correction" instead, crash was intended more as crypto-slang for a hard pullback. Didn't mean anything pejorative by it.

Quote:I doubt that there needs to be any kind of meaningful resolution of the scaling debate in order for bitcoin to continue to serve as the most disruptive of any of the cryptos...

Maybe the alt coins are a bubble. Or maybe they're the Facebook and Snapchat and Instagram to Bitcoin's Myspace.

Either way, they are by definition the most disruptive thing in crypto right now.

Quote:making bitcoin difficult to change is a feature rather than a bug.

I agree, and that makes it a great store of value, but it precludes the "move fast and break things" development style that fosters innovation.

That creativity found its way into the alt community, and the eruption in value we're witnessing now is simply the result of two to three years of pent-up entrepreneurial effort as the various projects hit their tipping points.

Quote:Look Isaac, it does not matter that much if there are various other coins that might 10x the returns of bitcoin in the short term or even in the long term.

It matters if you're looking to make money.

Quote:don't discount bitcoin's ability to adopt, absorb and incorporate a large number of the supposed innovations of these other various distraction alt coins

You just said "making bitcoin difficult to change is a feature rather than a bug"... so which is it?

But sure, let's assume Bitcoin eventually adopts some features that make it faster/more private/etc. If/when that happens, corresponding alts whose only strengths are those features will likely take a hit in value, and maybe disappear entirely.

But 1) that could take anywhere from weeks to years, in which time there's a LOT of money to be made, and

2) Bitcoin can steal features, but it can't steal platforms. Networks like Ethereum are designed from the ground up to be more flexible (e.g. Turing complete) and to provide more/different features than Bitcoin (at this time and for the foreseeable future) can offer.

Again, Bitcoin is inflexible by design. It can only bend so far.

Quote:Currency? I would not even call bitcoin a currency, but ethereum seems much less fitting in that category...

You wouldn't call bitcoin a currency?

Let me be clear: I am still bullish on bitcoin. It's an amazing invention, truly the greatest money humanity has ever seen. Beats the shit out of fiat any day of the week - that's for sure - and it will continue to help the billions of people around the world whose governments have debased their currencies into worthlessness.

But it's clear that we can - and will - do better than just bitcoin. There are so many niches to be filled.

I still love bitcoin, but I don't have to stop loving bitcoin in order to see other cryptos on the side. I just have too much crypto love to keep it all on one blockchain.

(05-01-2017 12:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  So, you don't want to make any price predictions? Based on your chosen phraseology, you seem to think that ETH and BTC have some equivalencies and ETH has a greater upside potential...

I definitely don't want to make numeric predictions, because I haven't been long enough in this game. There are enough people making hard predictions already.

(05-01-2017 12:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  one thing is tech, and another thing is:

1) decentralized

2) immutable

3) secure

4) value transfer and storage...


Which coins have these 4?

Bitcoin has it - without getting into the various network effects.

Any other coins have the 4 (whether they have network effects or not)?

There is more to this whole situation beyond "tech", no?

You forgot 1 thing - relationships or backing by important players. Bitcoin has Peter Thiel, Mark Andreessen, and the Winklevoss Twins, while Ethereum has JP Morgan and Microsoft. These people and organizations are the real deal. And this is why Ethereum isn't just another ****coin. It's also more than just its technology.

(05-01-2017 12:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Frozen seems to be the lesser of any likely scenario that is coming in the coming weeks when we have unprecedented highs and ongoing and upwards price pressures.

I agree. I personally think that markets will have to correct a bit, maybe for all the coins.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

(04-30-2017 05:50 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Anyhow, I think that you are getting things a bit wrong when you are expecting some kind of straight line exponential growth, whether that is in bitcoin or any other crypto.

Sure, there may be periods of straight-line, but there are also going to corrections in between that may not show up in the zoom-out retrospect.

I said I expect our market cap to grow to ~$100B in the near future, I never said there wouldn't be any corrections. But like you wrote, on a long-term time chart it'll appear to go vertical - like it has multiple times in the past - because we're looking at extreme, exponential growth.

Isaac, I am attempting to battle with some of your phraseology and your arguments rather than with you because overall I think that when you post, you tend to post pretty decent substance and relateable explanations.

I have been getting the sense that recently you have been losing some confidence in bitcoin, and that you are even questioning whether some of the exponential growth theories apply to bitcoin. Your explanation even admitted to having some of those kinds of second thoughts.

So, maybe in the end, I am quibbling too much regarding some of your expressed reservations.

Quote:I doubt that there needs to be any kind of meaningful resolution of the scaling debate in order for bitcoin to continue to serve as the most disruptive of any of the cryptos...

Maybe the alt coins are a bubble. Or maybe they're the Facebook and Snapchat and Instagram to Bitcoin's Myspace.

Either way, they are by definition the most disruptive thing in crypto right now.
[/quote]

probably we have come to differing conclusions about the significance of such growth, whether the growth is considered on its own or relative to bitcoin.

I had already mentioned too that there is likely some kind of symbiosis going on here too.. that cryptos are benefiting from bitcoin's current upward and ongoing price pressures, and bitcoin is also benefiting from the cryptos experiencing the upward price too.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

Quote:making bitcoin difficult to change is a feature rather than a bug.

I agree, and that makes it a great store of value, but it precludes the "move fast and break things" development style that fosters innovation.

alt coin pumpers want you to believe that bitcoin is broken in some kind of way, and it is not true.. we do not want bitcoin to be easily changed, especially since bitcoin, in and of itself is already very revolutionary, even if it does not change any further. Can you imagine the power of it? It is already very powerful.. without needing to be able to engage in micro transactions.. just being able to transfer and hold money for almost free is amazing and revolutionary...

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  That creativity found its way into the alt community, and the eruption in value we're witnessing now is simply the result of two to three years of pent-up entrepreneurial effort as the various projects hit their tipping points.

Fair enough.. I am not denying the lack of creativity in the alt coin space... there is a lot of it. I concede that point.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

Quote:Look Isaac, it does not matter that much if there are various other coins that might 10x the returns of bitcoin in the short term or even in the long term.

It matters if you're looking to make money.

You still have to exercise discretion in figuring out how to allocate in order to preserve your capital.. I don't deny that there are strategies to accomplish this, and guys such as yourself can surely figure out a comfort level and an exit.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

Quote:don't discount bitcoin's ability to adopt, absorb and incorporate a large number of the supposed innovations of these other various distraction alt coins

You just said "making bitcoin difficult to change is a feature rather than a bug"... so which is it?

I'm sorry that I probably come off as being contradictory, but there are developments at the protocol level and then there are developments that can be built on top.

Sure seg wit would help building on top of bitcoin, but I think that there are folks who are also able to build on top without seg wit to incorporate into bitcoin as a side chain or whatever... which does not mean that you change the underlying protocol.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  But sure, let's assume Bitcoin eventually adopts some features that make it faster/more private/etc. If/when that happens, corresponding alts whose only strengths are those features will likely take a hit in value, and maybe disappear entirely.

But 1) that could take anywhere from weeks to years, in which time there's a LOT of money to be made, and

If you think that some feature is valuable in the short term and you have decent confidence, then you can certainly make those kinds of short term investments.. and just because you identify a way to make a short term profit does not mean that another guy is going to want to take the time and effort to invest in that same thing.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  2) Bitcoin can steal features, but it can't steal platforms. Networks like Ethereum are designed from the ground up to be more flexible (e.g. Turing complete) and to provide more/different features than Bitcoin (at this time and for the foreseeable future) can offer.

Yes, I agree and some of those features could prove the demise of some of those coins, too.. There are trade offs, and surely I will admit that bitcoin does not have some fundamental features that other coins have developed, but it does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is broken.. but sure, there could be some investment opportunities with those that guys can identify and partake in.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  Again, Bitcoin is inflexible by design. It can only bend so far.

agreed.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

Quote:Currency? I would not even call bitcoin a currency, but ethereum seems much less fitting in that category...

You wouldn't call bitcoin a currency?

bitcoin is probably closer to a currency than ethereum.. but I doubt that even bitcoin quite rises to the level of a currency, even though there are aspirations for bitcoin to serve as a currency and bitcoin has more currency characteristics than ethereum...

yeah, ethereum has some of them also, but a lot less, so far, than bitcoin.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  Let me be clear: I am still bullish on bitcoin. It's an amazing invention, truly the greatest money humanity has ever seen. Beats the shit out of fiat any day of the week - that's for sure - and it will continue to help the billions of people around the world whose governments have debased their currencies into worthlessness.

But it's clear that we can - and will - do better than just bitcoin. There are so many niches to be filled.

Yes, it is possible that some of the alts are going to fill such spaces...

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  I still love bitcoin, but I don't have to stop loving bitcoin in order to see other cryptos on the side. I just have too much crypto love to keep it all on one blockchain.

nothing wrong with that and thanks for the further explantion.

(05-01-2017 01:41 AM)Thoughtcrime Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 12:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  So, you don't want to make any price predictions? Based on your chosen phraseology, you seem to think that ETH and BTC have some equivalencies and ETH has a greater upside potential...

I definitely don't want to make numeric predictions, because I haven't been long enough in this game. There are enough people making hard predictions already.

It does not need to be a hard prediction.

I doubt that I ever make a hard prediction.

Usually I will say that the chances of going up 15% are 55% or something like that. That is hardly a hard prediction, even though sometimes a bit of a battle will ensue about some stupid crap that has nothing to do with what was said. hahahaaha

(05-01-2017 01:41 AM)Thoughtcrime Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 12:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  one thing is tech, and another thing is:

1) decentralized

2) immutable

3) secure

4) value transfer and storage...


Which coins have these 4?

Bitcoin has it - without getting into the various network effects.

Any other coins have the 4 (whether they have network effects or not)?

There is more to this whole situation beyond "tech", no?

You forgot 1 thing - relationships or backing by important players. Bitcoin has Peter Thiel, Mark Andreessen, and the Winklevoss Twins, while Ethereum has JP Morgan and Microsoft. These people and organizations are the real deal. And this is why Ethereum isn't just another ****coin. It's also more than just its technology.

fair enough if you believe that is an important factor in regards to making money (which is a legitimate goal of a lot of guys).. but if you are thinking in terms of paradigm changes and challenges to the status quo, my 4 factors cover that sufficiently.

(05-01-2017 01:41 AM)Thoughtcrime Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 12:52 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  Frozen seems to be the lesser of any likely scenario that is coming in the coming weeks when we have unprecedented highs and ongoing and upwards price pressures.

I agree. I personally think that markets will have to correct a bit, maybe for all the coins.

You are saying something different from me.

I am thinking that we are going up.. and likely all markets are going up in the coming weeks.. and maybe we will have the first test of a meaningful correction (of 15% or more) in the mid to upper $1500s. If we go past that point, then the next resistance point is above $1800..

I am saying something different from you.

You seem to be saying that we are currently over heated and correction imminent for all crypto markets.

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

Maybe the alt coins are a bubble. Or maybe they're the Facebook and Snapchat and Instagram to Bitcoin's Myspace.

This is what I think too, and I've been thinking like this for the last 2 - 3 years. Looking at the statistics today, it seems like I've been right all along.

By the way, congrats Armogan on successful trades. I'd come for some drinks if I were in LA.

(05-01-2017 08:16 AM)Satoshi Wrote:  

(05-01-2017 01:24 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  [edited out]

This is what I think too, and I've been thinking like this for the last 2 - 3 years. Looking at the statistics today, it seems like I've been right all along.

You were right all along about something important?

What does it all mean? You were right that bitcoin was going to die a slow death from $250 all the way down to $1,380? You mean that kind of wrong, or something else?

Do you have any further predictions that you would like to make regarding bitcoin?

Should we short now? Sell all our bitcoin now? or some other action? And, you?

Funny how we have so many folks talking so negatively about bitcoin, and I still have ATHs on my screen all day long yesterday and currently today.. $1387 now..

Can't keep up with this Crashing and death of bitcoin.. It may crash all the way to $3k.. Fuck!!! 1000 coins just bought in the upper $1380s.. OMG.. this crash is getting worse and worse.. must be the death and inferiority of bitcoin causing this.

Lotta good information being shared here. I've only been in crypto for about a year now, and in that time bitcoin has always been king. Bitcoin has been dominant and seen such explosive growth that I have never doubted being all-in on bitcoin. At the same time, I feel that I always need to be prepared for change so I'm not gonna go down with the ship if that were to ever happen.

But the last few months have been worrisome. I'm not too blockchain-savvy, but I understand enough to know that this scaling debate is a serious issue. We saw it reflected in the price, where all the FUD and infighting kept us in that stagnant market from January to March.

And that entire time, what's the discussion on all the bitcoin forums and related crypto/trading reddits? Constant doom and death of bitcoin talk, fighting between the BU and core camps. No progress on the price.

And then, inexplicably, what happens in April? Bitcoin price rises to ATH despite zero progress on the scaling issue being made while BTC marketcap dominance continues to shrink at an alarming rate. You'd honestly have to be foolish not to be worried for bitcoin. But what is all the talk on the forums now? Some talk about surging price, little discussion on scaling issues, segwit, etc.

But the most surprising thing? How dead and unenthusiastic the btc community is right now. And its all starting to remind me of the election last year.

One of the things I paid attention to last year was the level of enthusiasm online for the candidates. To me, twitter followers, likes received, rally sizes, etc. were more important than skewed polls and whatever stories the fake news was peddling.

I remember telling a friend about how far behind Hillary lagged behind Trump in Twitter followers and likes per tweet. How dead her rallies were compared to his. How active /the_donald subreddit was compared to the activity at /politics or hillary's sub, which was basically all CTR shills anyway. His response?

-"ROFLMAO ur so dumb, twitter likes matter? herp derp polls say she's way ahead he doesn't stand a chance GL WITH UR BET LOL"

And we all know how that turned out. Now, basically the same exact thing is happening in the crypto-sphere. I've been regularly following some other forums, usually bitcointalk and the various crypto subreddits (/bitcoin, btc, ethereum, ethtrader, bitcoinmarkets, etc.) and bitcoin talk is basically dead too.

-Zero updates, dialogue, whatever regarding the scaling debate or if segwit is ever coming at all.
-bitcointalk's speculation forum has a long-running "wall-observer" thread regardining the price. Our friend JJG knows about it well Activity and discussion on this thread has heavily died down in the last month or so.
-r/bitcoin has basically turned into r/politics. There's evidence of heavy censorship going on there and entire posts critical of bitcoin being deleted while on r/btc the same post is there
-all the activity has moved to ethtrader mostly. At one point last night, as ETH was climbing from $75-80, r/ethtrader had more active users than r/bitcoin, r/btc, and r/bitcoinmarkets combined!
-r/bitcoin is where you go to see a few people cheer about the price. r/btc is where you go for the doomsday gloom. r/bitcoinmarkets is dead. and r/ethtrader is where you go to see people talking about gains and how much money they are making

So if bitcoin's number one advantage is its network effect, which is heavily dropping already, how can it survive and still be number one whenever crypto finally goes mainstream and the average Joe hops aboard?

Think about it. You ask the average person now, and they still don't even know about bitcoin. Maybe they heard about it but they don't know anything about it other than that people used to buy drugs with it. I've been telling my friends about bitcoin, mostly college-educated guys who are making some money, and none of them have hopped in (just like with Trump). They are too afraid of the risk or simply too lazy to do it themselves (sry bro im not gonna buy crypto coins for you or just send you some of mine for cash).

So whenever this cryptosphere finally does truly explode and go mainstream (hopefully), if bitcoin has lost its dominance and network effect to ethereum or another blockchain, no one is gonna remember that bitcoin was king for the first decade and had 80%+ marketcap dominance up until recently. They will just see that bitcoin isn't number one anymore and buy whatever is. The 'ol Myspace-Facebook analogy that is so popular.

As BTC's marketcap dominance shrinks to alts by the day while the uncertainty with Bitifinex and China continues, every post rationalizing everything as OK seems more and more delusional. I saw one guy who actually believed it would be a good thing for BTC to drop to 30% dominance and serve as the reserve currency for other alts. To serve more as digital gold and less as a digital currency.

Well, why don't we all invest in gold? Because we are looking for gains, not something that will stagnate in value. It's actually really pissing me off that this is happening, because I just wanted to stay with bitcoin, but I'm getting the same feeling in my gut that I did last year, and it's telling me I'm a fool to be all in on bitcoin.

So I've changed my portfolio now to about 75% ETH/20% BTC/5% GNT. Cashed out most of my GNT for ETH since I was nervous about the recent dips and already made decent gains from .14-.22. In another month, I will have more money to invest and will re-evaluate my position once again. I may get out of BTC entirely aside from a coin or two if nothing has changed in the meantime.

The next couple years are really gonna be exciting. I was a little sad realizing how much I could have made had I traded my BTC earlier in January when I was first reading about ETH and it was only like $7. But I believed all the shit I read about it being a scamcoin etc.

Gotta have some perspective though. We are still really, really early into the whole cryptosphere. You don't want to get ahead of yourself obviously, but its hard not to think that 5 years from now everyone in this thread will be very, very happy that we were posting here now as all our buddies who doubted us are finally playing catch-up.

Ahaha and just as I typed this up, BTC breaks through another price wall and surges past $1450 just to make me feel like a dumbass. At least I sold above 1400 and didn't buy the top with ETH. Not gonna make anymore moves for awhile now as frankly I don't have a clue what's going on. But I'm worried that this is a pump for bitcoin. Alts are getting their correction now it seems, and I'm curious to see what happens with bitcoin. How much further does it go up? Does it continue dropping its overall market dominance? And is this money flowing from alts back to btc or new money into btc.