(04-26-2017 02:25 PM)Stun Wrote:  

(04-26-2017 10:59 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  I am amazed every day in the past few weeks, and I am kind of thinking that bitcoin could be moving into a PUNISHMENT mode - in regards to those folks who have been waiting on the sidelines, you could get PUNISHED. Get your $1,300 coins while you still can... hahahahahahaha

I admit, I don't fucking know, but UPPITY, still does feel pretty strong.

Why? A wise and successful investor once said you should always know why you made or lost money on a trade. If you traded (or held) and made money but you don't know why, you didn't successfully invest, you gambled and were lucky.

We may be talking about two different issues here.

The way I invest is one issue (1) and what I think about the probable price directions of my investment might be another issue (2).

1) I invest in such a way that it seems that I make money either way as long as in the long run, the asset (here bitcoin) goes up in value. Accordingly, I remain fairly neutral about what I do and the strategy that I employ. Kind of like a robot, I buy on the way down, and I sell on the way up.

On the margins I may bet an extra 1% or 2% in one direction or another and play around with it, but overall I am not deviating a whole hell-of-a lot from my overall plan and strategy that I tweak here and there from time to time or revise in small ways from time to time.

2) Ever since the dip to $890 in late March, I kept thinking that the FUD is strong in the bitcoin space. Since the FUD was strong, I kept thinking that we could likely get another correction, downwards. I did not really deviate from my overall plan too much.. but continued to think we are going to get another correction down. Then as the price was going up, I initially put the upcoming anticipated price range at $950 to $1150 in the coming months, but we ended up breaking through the top of that range with a lot more ease than I had expected.

Then I thought, o.k. if we break through $1200 fairly easily then we are going upwards to test the ATH.. ($1350). We ended up breaking through $1200 fairly easily but then we kind of lingered there for a while but in the end, we end up witnessing that the break through of $1,200 was pretty solid (even though at the time we are not really sure about whether it is going to hold or to reverse)...

So, yeah it seems that we are on our way to test the $1,350 ATH.. but we really cannot know for sure on any of these kinds of price dynamic things or even place very solid probabilities on our predictions because there are too many variables and even the market cap remains fairly small so the price can remain manipulated for periods that are quite longer and more irrational than we can anticipate, even when we attempt to give a good shot at accounting for as many variables as we can.

(04-26-2017 02:25 PM)Stun Wrote:  So why will Bitcoin continue to rise despite being near ATH? What is it about the climate today that will cause it to ascend from 1300 instead of drop as it did last month?

Surely other guys can give their input here, too.

I continue to say that I don't know what the fuck bitcoin prices are going to do - especially in the shorter term - even though I may spout out a few predictions here and there from time to time. I just have theories and probabilities and I try to approximate my own investment into BTC and my strategies as best that I can to my ongoing and somewhat evolving perspectives and to the extent that there may be changes in my perspective... some guys may suggest that I am stubborn too, and sure, in that regard, I may have some perspectives that are not going to change very easily.. but does not necessarily mean that I am right (only maybe that I am right for myself and the way that I attempt to tailor to myself)

One thing that makes bitcoin quite unique is that it is NOT a mature technology (even though a lot of guys - even in this thread - attempt to put bitcoin into that category of maturity on its own and relative to their various wishes regarding pump and dump coins). Sure bitcoin might be more mature than some other coins, but overall it is not anywhere near a mature technology or investment.

So, when we have lack of maturity we have networking dynamics and s-curve adoption and those kinds of upwards explosive potentialities...even with a relatively small amount of capital can cause those kinds of exponential explosive dynamics.

Sure, the existence of these various other crytpos and the ongoing development in the crypto space causes more and more maturity and more complications regarding whether one coin or another is going to take over some or all of the space... and surplant all or parts of bitcoin.

No matter these various ongoing and evolving dynamics - even the supposed loss of relative market share of bitcoin, Bitcoin remains in a considerably solid place, yet the price can go in any direction, but it certainly is not precluded from 2x, 5x, 10x, 100x or more... Of course, the higher the x, the lower the probability that it will happen any time soon.

It is not precluded from losing a decent amount of it's value too, and the same concept is true.. the more you anticipate for it to lose, the lower the percentage that it could happen... so bitcoin could go to zero, and you need to account for that .. you could lose 100% of your investment... You could also 100x your investment., Guys are going to come to different calculations regarding how much weight to give to each of these probabilities, and I consider mine to be fairly cautious and that is why I have set myself up in a position to attempt to prepare for either direction - even though, of course, up is better for me than down, but I feel that I have pretty decent preparations for down, too.


I think that whether a guy is getting started in bitcoin or any crypto currency, he needs to consider both UPS and DOWNS and prepare for either direction, rather than getting caught up in only considering the UPS in terms of one coin or another or waiting too long because he is preoccupied by the DOWNS in another coin... None of us are really going to know the answers regarding the UPS and DOWNS of any coins, and surely guys are going to have differing perspectives about these UPS and DOWNS matters and the probabilities of each, too.

So, in the end, there may not be as much of any kind of abstract wisdom, but there comes some knowledge in attempting to apply practice to theory and in that regard for guys to attempt to figure out what works for them in terms of strategies and applying those strategies... whether to start out with one coin or two coins and strategies of getting in and getting out and considering those matters in terms of other investments that a guy may have and cash flow and risk profile, too.

(04-25-2017 11:13 PM)Armogan Wrote:  .........
If you think you have asperger's but not sure option:
6. 100% BTC
Anything can happen, looks strong and fragile at the same time. Weird charts, weird bitfagnex crap, weird tether crap.

..........

I would like to argue that there is NO such thing as aspergers in bitcoin nor in this particular bitcoin thread, to be more specific...

In order to provide evidence for my assertion, I am going to make an approximate prediction regarding BTC prices in the next 72 hours to 96 hours.

As I type, BTC prices have experienced a little pause, and are currently floating between about $1,280 and $1,300 on Stamp.... so I will describe it as $1,290.

Because of recent price dynamics, we could get an upwards break out at any moment... of possibly 3% or more (I will round it to about $40 in order to be $1,330 for UP and $1,250 for DOWN) (by the way UP or DOWN would mean to break through such noted prices any time before the deadline - otherwise the resulting price outcome would be determined as SIDEWAYs).

After analyzing all the relevant and irrelevant facts, logic, opinion, FUD
controversy and even fantasy... I have considered all of these factors, including individual, various combination and time-factor, including direct and indirect causation, and inferences too - and concluded that:

I'm giving UP a tiny bit better chance than DOWN..

37.76316% for UP

32.3805422% for DOWN

29.857126% for SIDEWAYS

and

.001492107% for SOMETHING ELSE that I have not been capable of considering

As I assert my ballpark figures are approximations, and surely there is no doubting the case that it is possible that I could be off by a tiny weeny little itsy bitsy amount, here or there.

To the extent that you read this as "advice" - please allocate your BTC investment in the next few critical hours in accordance with your own perspectives and how much weight that you determine to give to my perspective(s), if any.

ETH up 7% today. I called it a few days back, going to be a yuge month. New EEA conference, Raiden, ENS release, and most importantly the cure for asperger's will be announced. Choo chooo motherfuckas!

Gee I like your analysis, very thorough and value-add.

Van Damme Coin taking no prisoners...

Icon. Martial Artist. World Class Dancer. Split Grandmaster. Actor of the Century. Cryptocurrency Guru. Recovering Crackhead.

Quote:2x, 5x, 10x, 100x

JJG, you genuinely think that BTC can go 100x from here? Rounding down to $1000 that would be... $1.5-$2 trillion market cap? That would be insane. Not that I don't think ETH mcap in the billions to be a bit crazy as well. But for BTC at $100,000, we're talking approximately 10% of the entire US national debt.

I do agree that people saying BTC upside doesn't exist is unjustified. Yes, due to its higher price it's likely to take longer to multiply 2,3,5,10x like some tiny new altcoin, but as I've always said it's gambling to pick the next altcoin which you think is going to get pumped next. My gut tells me BTC can realistically go 10x within the next few years, but it's going to take a few years (1 year at least) while the newest X or Y altcoin can do that within days. 1 trillion CNY (Chinese Yuan) is a round number that I think is reachable. $100-150 billion mcap is less than some big stocks.

As for the current price action, it's either going to break through the ATH or it's going to go back down to $900. The former would be a new 5 wave scenario, regarding the ATH to $900 correction as a 3 wave simple correction completed. If the correction is complex that 3 wave would only be wave A of an ABC flat correction, the current wave being B back to near the ATH, before the C back down to $900. If there is a new 5 wave pattern beyond the ATH then depending on extensions in the waves the price could go up anywhere reasonably. What's been surprising is that there hasn't been exceptional volume in the push higher, and you would expect there to be some significant volume on big bursts upwards. We may be due an explosion, especially on a long third wave. But this requires big volume. I am not sure the chinese have the confidence to commit to it yet.

Alts have been on a tear lately, I keep thinking there should be a big pullback but it hasn't come (yet).

^Regarding the Chinese, I think we're gonna see another nice rise in price once the Chinese exchanges allow users to withdraw BTC again. The ban wasn't supposed to last this long, but as with all things with China they are horribly inefficient trying to do anything on time so all the Chinese exchanges are still in limbo. Bitcoins on China's okcoin exchange are trading for only $1081 as I write this.

(04-26-2017 11:32 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  

Quote:2x, 5x, 10x, 100x

JJG, you genuinely think that BTC can go 100x from here? Rounding down to $1000 that would be... $1.5-$2 trillion market cap? That would be insane. Not that I don't think ETH mcap in the billions to be a bit crazy as well. But for BTC at $100,000, we're talking approximately 10% of the entire US national debt.

When giving those kinds of ranges, we are talking about possibilities, and not likelihoods. Sure, some people think that it is more likely than others, and there are all kinds of theories and posts about those upside potentials, it is not just my idea.

From time to time, I post links in this thread of articles or other threads of guys who are much smarter than me who are outlining those kind theories and giving rationale for them, and frequently I am a bit more conservative in my own thinking, but you can be conservative in your thinking while understanding the upside possibilities.

$100k per BTC is not as outlandish as you might think.

That would be about $1.5 trillion market cap, as you say, which is about 1/6 the size of the gold market cap, and there are some actual decent arguments that assert that bitcoin is more valuable than gold in a variety of use-cases.


Check out my post from September 2015

So I am copying and pasting and I am going to attempt an update of a discussion on this topic.


Thinking changes over time. Therefore, here is my rough prediction of BTC prices based on my current knowledge and expectations at this particular moment:



Within the next 8 months -
There are decent chances that BTC prices will move into a $3k to $5k territory. It is also possible that BTC will experiences one or two more dips below $1000 during this period and also possibly going below $800, as well.

less than $400 < 4 % chance
$400 to $600 <8% chance
$600 to $750 <20% chance
$750 to $900 20-25% chance
$900 to $1000 50% chance
$1000 to $1150 70% chance
$1150 to $1250 90% chance
$1250 to $1350 100% chance (let's just call this current price)
$1,350 to $1,450 about 65% chance
$1,450 to $1,600 about 60% chance
$1,600 to $2,000 about 45% chance
$2000 to $3,000 15-20% chance
$3,000 to $5000 about 10% chance
$5000 to $10,000 < 5% chance
$10,000 to $20,000 < 2% chance
$20,000+ <.05% chance

As I did in my September 2015 post, I can make these same kinds of predictions for shorter periods of time, such as 1 month or 3 months or 6 months or for longer periods such as 3 years, 5 years or 20 years, but surely the further out the predictions get the more speculative they get too and maybe the more theoretical rather than practical and really anyone can do it - but yeah, I understand the perspective of another RVF guy can help you to figure out your own perspective, too.

I will just do one broad and general one that covers my current thinking for 10 years


less than $800 < 8 % chance
$800 to $3000 50% chance
$3000 to $10,000 30-40% chance
$10,000 to $20,000 10-20%
$20,000 to $40,000 < 8% chance
$40,000 to $100,000 < 3% chance
$100,000 to $500,000 < 1% chance
$500,000 to $1,000,000 < .01% chance
$1,000,000 + <.005% chance


So, even with 10 years, you can see that I assign probabilities to some outcomes that are pretty low, but that does not mean that they are not going to happen, even if at this time, they seem to have a low probability.

(04-26-2017 11:32 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  I do agree that people saying BTC upside doesn't exist is unjustified. Yes, due to its higher price it's likely to take longer to multiply 2,3,5,10x like some tiny new altcoin, but as I've always said it's gambling to pick the next altcoin which you think is going to get pumped next. My gut tells me BTC can realistically go 10x within the next few years, but it's going to take a few years (1 year at least) while the newest X or Y altcoin can do that within days. 1 trillion CNY (Chinese Yuan) is a round number that I think is reachable. $100-150 billion mcap is less than some big stocks.

I probably agree with you more than I disagree with you about these points, and you kind of identified the problem.. and that is trying to identify where to put your money in the multiple pump and dump scams - that kind of seem legit and kind of seem like they might have potential..

My thinking is that bitcoin is the killer app.. but yeah, you may be able to identify some good short to medium and even longer term alts that may make you rich as shit... will that be luck? or is there some kind of method? Some guys suggest that they have kinds of methods, and maybe they should chime in to share their methods, because I certainly don't claim to have those kind of skills in sorting through the alt coin bullshit, except to see that they are frequently just bullshit, even though they are currently making some folks a lot of fucking money..

(04-26-2017 11:32 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  As for the current price action, it's either going to break through the ATH or it's going to go back down to $900. The former would be a new 5 wave scenario, regarding the ATH to $900 correction as a 3 wave simple correction completed. If the correction is complex that 3 wave would only be wave A of an ABC flat correction, the current wave being B back to near the ATH, before the C back down to $900. If there is a new 5 wave pattern beyond the ATH then depending on extensions in the waves the price could go up anywhere reasonably. What's been surprising is that there hasn't been exceptional volume in the push higher, and you would expect there to be some significant volume on big bursts upwards. We may be due an explosion, especially on a long third wave. But this requires big volume. I am not sure the chinese have the confidence to commit to it yet.

I don't necessarily think that we need high volume to get an upwards explosion - yet I agree with you that we currently are not getting a lot of volume - which I consider to be quite bullish that the bears are kind of having trouble keeping the price from going up - even when the keep trying to dump on it and it is not really working.

So, I continue to conclude that the continued upwards movement on relatively low volume seems to be a sign of difficulties for the bears to bring the price down or to keep it down..

which Viola!!!!!!! could result in upwards violence (hello $3k to $5k... hahahahahahahaha)

(04-26-2017 11:32 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Alts have been on a tear lately, I keep thinking there should be a big pullback but it hasn't come (yet).

It is a strange phenomenon.. and we have a lot of strange things going on .. but in the end, these variety of strange things are not necessarily going to cause the crash of bitcoin and we might get simultaneous pumps in all cryptos.. and maybe some will die off, but maybe they won't for quite a bit longer.. and then before you know it, we got some kind of new crypto space distributions.. and at some point, bitcoin may crash too.. but I am thinking that the moment, the odds are not really playing in the crash direction for any of the cryptos.. so pump the fuck out of all of them, and let's see which ones are left standing after a few weeks or possibly months of this.....

would probably be healthy to pull back a little in some of these, but these kinds of various immature markets do not seem to be very rationale.

So take your various stakes in whatever crypto you believe and allocate according to your best guestimations.... AND GOOD LUCK everyone..

By the way Skank... have you changed some of your allocations?

Do you mind sharing a general idea of your percentages in various cryptos and approximate allocation ranges? These are ongoing good and important topics for guys to attempt to consider if they are wanting to consider various possible stakes and the stakes that some other RVF guys have taken and even some of their rationale for such (which may not always be static and may not always be completely coherent or applicable to anyone else).

(04-27-2017 12:58 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  ^Regarding the Chinese, I think we're gonna see another nice rise in price once the Chinese exchanges allow users to withdraw BTC again. The ban wasn't supposed to last this long, but as with all things with China they are horribly inefficient trying to do anything on time so all the Chinese exchanges are still in limbo. Bitcoins on China's okcoin exchange are trading for only $1081 as I write this.

Agreed.

There are a lot of strange things going on in bitcoin, including the Chinese situation and seems like some of the chinese bitcoin holders may have gotten a bit screwed by that whole situation that does not seem close to resolving any time soon (but maybe you are correct that it could resolve and cause some various equalizing of situations)

(04-26-2017 08:42 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Gee I like your analysis, very thorough and value-add.

Seems that you were referring to my price prediction post - and I was attempting to have some fun in getting down the price prediction road - and kind of play on a few poetic (or would we call it artistic) themes... so maybe in that sense attempting to add value in my own exercise of discretion way... hahahahaheeee hehehehehe

So, yeah, you are likely joking when you refer to my communication attempts as analysis... and so be it.

(04-27-2017 12:58 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  ^Regarding the Chinese, I think we're gonna see another nice rise in price once the Chinese exchanges allow users to withdraw BTC again. The ban wasn't supposed to last this long, but as with all things with China they are horribly inefficient trying to do anything on time so all the Chinese exchanges are still in limbo. Bitcoins on China's okcoin exchange are trading for only $1081 as I write this.

Is the problem inefficiency, or that the Chinese Central Bank simply does not want to relax the ban yet? I had thought it was the latter.

By the way, today's daily weighted bitcoin price closed at its highest level, ever at $1,293.83, which was $18 higher than 2nd place.

All cryptos are also at $32 billion - which is another record high - these record highs have been coming through out the year...

There is bafflement and there is bullish sentiment..


And there are also quite a few people who have shorted bitcoin in the past couple hundred dollars as we have been going up and their positions may get reckt.

Here's a new bullish thread that captures some BTC excitement.. predicting BTC $1,500 in 30 days, which seems in the ballpark of reasonable to me.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1888938.0

(04-26-2017 04:44 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(04-25-2017 11:13 PM)Armogan Wrote:  .........
If you think you have asperger's but not sure option:
6. 100% BTC
Anything can happen, looks strong and fragile at the same time. Weird charts, weird bitfagnex crap, weird tether crap.

..........

I would like to argue that there is NO such thing as aspergers in bitcoin nor in this particular bitcoin thread, to be more specific...

In order to provide evidence for my assertion, I am going to make an approximate prediction regarding BTC prices in the next 72 hours to 96 hours.

As I type, BTC prices have experienced a little pause, and are currently floating between about $1,280 and $1,300 on Stamp.... so I will describe it as $1,290.

Because of recent price dynamics, we could get an upwards break out at any moment... of possibly 3% or more (I will round it to about $40 in order to be $1,330 for UP and $1,250 for DOWN) (by the way UP or DOWN would mean to break through such noted prices any time before the deadline - otherwise the resulting price outcome would be determined as SIDEWAYs).

After analyzing all the relevant and irrelevant facts, logic, opinion, FUD
controversy and even fantasy... I have considered all of these factors, including individual, various combination and time-factor, including direct and indirect causation, and inferences too - and concluded that:

I'm giving UP a tiny bit better chance than DOWN..

37.76316% for UP

32.3805422% for DOWN

29.857126% for SIDEWAYS

and

.001492107% for SOMETHING ELSE that I have not been capable of considering

As I assert my ballpark figures are approximations, and surely there is no doubting the case that it is possible that I could be off by a tiny weeny little itsy bitsy amount, here or there.

To the extent that you read this as "advice" - please allocate your BTC investment in the next few critical hours in accordance with your own perspectives and how much weight that you determine to give to my perspective(s), if any.

I really don't fucking know anymore....

It broke upwards of greater than 3% within less than 18 hours of my posting the above prediction... (just breaking through $1330)

I'm getting the sense that this week could get us to the $1500 to $1650 territory... then we are not far from the SunW $1800 territory.. which seems a bit further down the road.. but the way that Bitcoin overshoots expectation.. who really can be for sure, until after the fact?

ETH poppped the pussy up bounced to over 60. 14% bump, GNT popped 16%.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/ori...a86a98.gif

And infinitejest when chinese exchanges allow withdrawals it will actually put downward pressure. All the chinese who couldn't sell for months finally will. More selling than buying drops the proce.

(04-27-2017 01:08 AM)Stun Wrote:  

(04-27-2017 12:58 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  ^Regarding the Chinese, I think we're gonna see another nice rise in price once the Chinese exchanges allow users to withdraw BTC again. The ban wasn't supposed to last this long, but as with all things with China they are horribly inefficient trying to do anything on time so all the Chinese exchanges are still in limbo. Bitcoins on China's okcoin exchange are trading for only $1081 as I write this.

Is the problem inefficiency, or that the Chinese Central Bank simply does not want to relax the ban yet? I had thought it was the latter.

I'm saying inefficiency because initially reports were that it would only last a month or so. That obviously wasn't the case and knowing the Chinese was a long shot to happen. There's been minimal news since regarding when the sanctions will be lifted, so all we can really assume is that government isn't ready to relax the ban yet.

(04-27-2017 09:39 AM)Armogan Wrote:  ETH poppped the pussy up bounced to over 60. 14% bump, GNT popped 16%.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/ori...a86a98.gif

And infinitejest when chinese exchanges allow withdrawals it will actually put downward pressure. All the chinese who couldn't sell for months finally will. More selling than buying drops the proce.

Just to be clear, the Chinese can sell bitcoin and withdraw RMB. They just can't withdraw their bitcoins outta the Chinese exchanges. So my assumption is that the difference in price is because everyone who panicked already sold their bitcoin holdings and withdrew fiat. Thus the downward pressure already there and the discrepancy in price.

Also seeing the bumps on those alts makes me sad I haven't sent money to my bank yet. This whole crypto surge in general these last few days has been pretty surprising. Bitcoin's going all over the place around $1335-1350 right now.

Thanks for the big post above JJG, your estimates are quite interesting. Not impossible by any means, though some of them do stretch my imagination a little bit! All well reflected by your assigned probabilities, it must be said.

Let's say we changed the time frame to within 3 years instead of 10 years, what do you think the probability of (the more modest) $3,000, $4,000 and $5,000 happening would be? I think $5,000 is about 50% myself but that's just a gut feeling guess (other members should do their own research and come to their own conclusions).

As for my Crypto allocation it's only BTC because:

(1) I have a very small amount of BTC and spare fiat to invest in BTC so it's not even worth it for me to micromanage buying/selling at, say, 10% increments as you do. I just don't care enough.
(2) I want it to be a passive investment, I consider time and stress losses so I try to minimize these (though you can never really eliminate them entirely).
(3) I understand that BTC may be gambling, but it is the established Cryptocurrency. It is a few levels below the risk of all these random altcoins. I can accept the risk of BTC but not of altcoins.
(4) Even if altcoins weren't far more risky and far less stable than BTC, I still couldn't be bothered to research each individual altcoin as there are so many of them. I don't know which one or two is going to blow its top more than I am capable as a fortune teller.
(5) I was going to buy a bit of ETC and DOGE, maybe 20% total, but didn't act fast enough and they doubled/tripled since I first mentioned them. (FML)
(6) I used to have some Dogecoins from messing around in the earlier days but in those days the subreddit was very active and I bought some cool stuff with my Dogecoins some of which I still use today. Where there wasn't outright BUY/SELL X item posts, you could just message members of the "Dogecoin community" and they often had some cool stuff, payments were easy (1 Doge transaction fee, compare that to BTC today!) but as a result have 0 Dogecoins left.

At the time I was

now more like

Anyway, it's good to see when BTC breaks through new highs as it's currently bouncing up towards the ATH on stamp. On other exchanges it has reached a new ATH.

(04-27-2017 11:03 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  

(04-27-2017 01:08 AM)Stun Wrote:  

(04-27-2017 12:58 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  ^Regarding the Chinese, I think we're gonna see another nice rise in price once the Chinese exchanges allow users to withdraw BTC again. The ban wasn't supposed to last this long, but as with all things with China they are horribly inefficient trying to do anything on time so all the Chinese exchanges are still in limbo. Bitcoins on China's okcoin exchange are trading for only $1081 as I write this.

Is the problem inefficiency, or that the Chinese Central Bank simply does not want to relax the ban yet? I had thought it was the latter.

I'm saying inefficiency because initially reports were that it would only last a month or so. That obviously wasn't the case and knowing the Chinese was a long shot to happen. There's been minimal news since regarding when the sanctions will be lifted, so all we can really assume is that government isn't ready to relax the ban yet.

I think that you are exactly on point here, infinite.....

Not only was there an initial estimate that anticipated a resumption of normal processes - there was also some shifting of the goal posts too. If I recall at first there was a freeze on RMB.. and then that turned into a freeze on BTC.. and so now china continues to be a bit of a fucked up state in terms of the process that is allowed and in place and the uncertainties regarding when maybe some kind of more normal operations might resume.

(04-27-2017 11:03 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  

(04-27-2017 09:39 AM)Armogan Wrote:  ETH poppped the pussy up bounced to over 60. 14% bump, GNT popped 16%.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/ori...a86a98.gif

And infinitejest when chinese exchanges allow withdrawals it will actually put downward pressure. All the chinese who couldn't sell for months finally will. More selling than buying drops the proce.

Just to be clear, the Chinese can sell bitcoin and withdraw RMB. They just can't withdraw their bitcoins outta the Chinese exchanges. So my assumption is that the difference in price is because everyone who panicked already sold their bitcoin holdings and withdrew fiat. Thus the downward pressure already there and the discrepancy in price.

You are correct here, too, infinite... there is not some kind of total and clear dynamic that is all of a sudden going to cause panic from the chinese.

Sure there may be buying and selling pressures that are triggered by various actions, but people are not completely locked into their positions - and if some kind of normalcy returns, there is not going to necessarily some kind of panic that overall affects bitcoin prices in a negative way like some folks might like to describe these kinds of matters in dramatic terms in order to imply that bitcoin is dead or something or that bitcoin is vulnerable... blah blah blah...

Some of these recent chinese events that pretty much started from the beginning of the year demonstrate quite strongly that neither I nor bitcoin gives a ratt's ass about china.... alright, alright, I am just joking a bit...

but my point is that china does not control the price of bitcoin as much as some superficial mainstream pundits have been wanting us to believe for more than 3 years. and some trollers, banking shills and even RVF guys buy into those kinds of insufficient explanations regarding what's going on in bitcoin and the crypto space.

(04-27-2017 11:03 AM)infinitejest Wrote:  Also seeing the bumps on those alts makes me sad I haven't sent money to my bank yet. This whole crypto surge in general these last few days has been pretty surprising. Bitcoin's going all over the place around $1335-1350 right now.

I hope no one get's too distracted by the alt hype and get either tricked out of your bitcoins or distracted from putting some investment in bitcoins. This should not be seen as a competition, even though I already notice that some people have pretty extreme to have heavy gambling views regarding how they approach these matters, and that is fine as long as they have a decent sense to identify both upside and downside risks related to any of their considerations.

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Thanks for the big post above JJG, your estimates are quite interesting. Not impossible by any means, though some of them do stretch my imagination a little bit! All well reflected by your assigned probabilities, it must be said.

As you likely notice, I don't really like to get too caught on specifics, and I do a quick estimate, I may make some mistakes too, and realize that I don't really think that or one event or another may cause me to rethink my assigned probabilities.

So in that sense, I change over time and likely guys are going to be all over the place to the extent that they have even thought through some of this or even feel that they have enough information to place a very precise value on even their own thoughts.

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Let's say we changed the time frame to within 3 years instead of 10 years, what do you think the probability of (the more modest) $3,000, $4,000 and $5,000 happening would be? I think $5,000 is about 50% myself but that's just a gut feeling guess (other members should do their own research and come to their own conclusions).

O.k. Let me give a shot for 3 years. By the way, I don't really think that it is a fair exercise to attempt to guess what the price will be in 3 years - even though sometimes that will be how the question will be framed, and I don't think that it very complete to consider only the upside - even though my own assumption remains that upside potential is greater than downside.... but I am not anywhere near strong views in that regard, especially the higher the price gets the harder it is to continue to think that the price is going to be higher in 3 years, for example.

I am going to frame the question how I would like to frame it and that will be regarding the various price points that I believe bitcoin can touch upon both to the upside and to the downside anytime between 2 years and 4 years (that way 3 years is in the middle) (with my current knowledge and expectations at the moment I type):

less than $200 < 2 %
$200 to $400 <4%
$400 to $600 <6%
$600 to $750 15-25%
$750 to $900 30-40%
$900 to $1150 35-50%
$1150 to $1,450 40-60%
$1,450 to $2,500 about 45%
$2500 to $3,500 about 30%
$3,500 to $4500 about 25%
$4,500 to $5,500 about 15%
$5,500 to $10,000 <10%
$10,000 to $20,000 <5%
$20,000 to $40,000 < 3%
$40,000 to $100,000 < 1%
$100,000 to $500,000 < .05%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 < .01%
$1,000,000 + <.005%


By the way, when I was going through this, I noticed that my numbers for $5k are more conservative than yours (you put $5k at 50% and I put $5k at 15%)... but whatever, I think that if RVF guys were to honestly and diligently plug their thoughts about numbers in to a kind of scheme like I have outlined above (for whatever time frame they choose) then they are likely going to need to rethink their thoughts or attempt to figure out what there thoughts are in order to honestly answer the questions (even if they merely do it for themselves without posting it on the interwebs)

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  As for my Crypto allocation it's only BTC because:

(1) I have a very small amount of BTC and spare fiat to invest in BTC so it's not even worth it for me to micromanage buying/selling at, say, 10% increments as you do. I just don't care enough.

For almost 2 years, I did not sell any BTC because I felt that I was in the accumulation mode - and also, I think that my system was not very well fleshed out.. I really did not know what to do or what I wanted to do.

When you put a system into practice (probably more so after you feel that you have accumulated enough), then you get a better sense of what you want to do and to attempt to control various trigger points. Even though I have a system, sometimes, I can still get a bit distracted or emotional when I see a potential opportunity or a risk. So I find that it can be difficult to stick to a system, even when you are attempt to follow such a system that you have already set up for yourself.

By the way, currently, I sell in less than 1% increments - however, the total amount that I sell is about 1% of my total holdings after about a 10% price increase... but sometimes I have to tweak that up or down as well.

I try to buy back after about a 2.5% price drop and then the increments buying downwardly ends up being about the same as they are upwards, just when the price reverses back and forth the spread is a bit larger - usually at minimum 2.5% - even though some folks might use larger amounts and smaller spreads, I just try to do something that kind of works for me, and I will sometimes throw in some variation in that too, when I see either a dramatic price drop or a dramatic price rise I might cancel and reset orders to account for such.

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  (2) I want it to be a passive investment, I consider time and stress losses so I try to minimize these (though you can never really eliminate them entirely).

Initially that was my goal too - yet you could also find that a similar system of buying on the way down and selling on the way up can work in a more passive way by creating much larger spreads - but also attempting to account for not blowing all of your wadd by selling too much or by buying too much when the price could continue to go further than expected.

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  (3) I understand that BTC may be gambling, but it is the established Cryptocurrency. It is a few levels below the risk of all these random altcoins. I can accept the risk of BTC but not of altcoins.

You are right, they are all risky.. none of us should get caught up in attempting to lump them all together as if they were all the same risk - because risks are going to vary from coin to coin - even though some coins are going to be alike and other coins are going to attempt to act like they are BTC 2.0.. etc etc.

Even considering all of these factors, I understand why some guys might choose to allocate only a small amount to bitcoin, and surely they could reasonably come to those kinds of conclusions, and have strategies to attempt to account for some of the associated risks with that approach.

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  (4) Even if altcoins weren't far more risky and far less stable than BTC, I still couldn't be bothered to research each individual altcoin as there are so many of them. I don't know which one or two is going to blow its top more than I am capable as a fortune teller.

that surely is part of the cost in attempting to figure some of them out.. what are they offering that is either different or better... and at what cost.

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  (5) I was going to buy a bit of ETC and DOGE, maybe 20% total, but didn't act fast enough and they doubled/tripled since I first mentioned them. (FML)

You are always going to come across situations in which you did not pull the trigger, so in that regard, I don't know what good it does to kick yourself, except maybe learn from the experience in order to make a better decision in the future - if that means pulling the trigger or not.

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  (6) I used to have some Dogecoins from messing around in the earlier days but in those days the subreddit was very active and I bought some cool stuff with my Dogecoins some of which I still use today. Where there wasn't outright BUY/SELL X item posts, you could just message members of the "Dogecoin community" and they often had some cool stuff, payments were easy (1 Doge transaction fee, compare that to BTC today!) but as a result have 0 Dogecoins left.

At the time I was

now more like

I think that kind of shows that we have a tendency and inclination to start with what we know, and those are not bad inclinations.

(04-27-2017 11:40 AM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  Anyway, it's good to see when BTC breaks through new highs as it's currently bouncing up towards the ATH on stamp. On other exchanges it has reached a new ATH.

Stamp seems to be the better of the barometers - even though sometimes stamp can get a bit out of wack, too... and think about how its volume must be somewhat diluted since in about 2013 there were only about 6 exchanges and now there are about 150 exchanges... so sometimes it is difficult to assess which exchanges are causing the price pressures... currently considerably upwards and ongoing and feeling like its bordering on uncharted territories... which can make anyone a bit nervous.. and waiting for the dip in order to say (I told you so) that is continuing to be postponed.... as the price goes up and Up and UP

Regarding Bitfinex and some of that.

I have been thinking that it surely would bring some peace of mind if the Bitfinex matter could resolve in some kind of way, but who ever claimed that Bitcoin ever facilitated any kind of peace of mind?

In Bitcoin, it seems almost inevitable that we have to have various underlying bearish factors that cause the market (or the fucking manipulators) to push the market in the opposite direction (which in this case is UPPITY).

So, it could be the case that once the various shorts get reckt and Bitfinex is able to arbitrage away some of their behind the scene fuck-ups (even though they don't want to refer to their fuck-ups as insolvencies), then maybe we can get back on the road to some kind of price parity in the dollar exchanges but probably only after a 20-35% correction - that could occur at any moment between now and $1,400, but I am thinking that we are likely going much beyond $1,400, the way this is continuing to play out..

Accordingly, maybe we won't get such a meaningful and significant price correction until approaching either $1,800 or $2k within the next week or two at most?

So, I am going to call first level of resistance in the upper $1500s and the second level of resistance in the $1.8k to $2k arena. We may have decent chances of getting past the 1st resistance, but a much more difficult chance of getting past the second one (without experiencing a 20-35% correction). My current thinking watching this situation unfold.

Edit: Sometimes I forget to make a reference to current price.. which can be a decent reference for the context of the post. In the last 5 hours, prices have been moving between lower $1,320s and upper $1330s. In the past couple of minutes, the price just broke through $1,338, so we seem to be going up.. and surely the previous ATH of $1350 is looking like a done deal, and even though we have about 1300 coins to get past $1360, that is looking pretty much like a done deal too - even though it hasn't yet been done.. but the bulls are seeming quite strong and you can almost bank on $1370.. .hahahahahaha - note: I said "almost"

BTC and ETH are 10% higher (USD) on Poloniex than GDAX (Coinbase.) Crazy.

Is anyone doing exchange arbitrage, and is it worth the time/risk after fees are factored in?

And, if it is, why isn't everyone (gen pop) doing it?

(04-27-2017 05:27 PM)Stun Wrote:  BTC and ETH are 10% higher (USD) on Poloniex than GDAX (Coinbase.) Crazy.

Is anyone doing exchange arbitrage, and is it worth the time/risk after fees are factored in?

And, if it is, why isn't everyone (gen pop) doing it?

I think that Poloniex's issue has to do with something fishy about what is going on with USDT not being properly pegged to the dollar. Currently, there is about an 8% screw up with USDT therefore a 10% premium would pretty much account for most if not all of the arbitrage opportunities.

So yeah, sometimes you can do exchange arbitrage - but if you are having difficulties getting dollars in or out of one then you will end up with a bunch of dollars on an exchange with a high bitcoin price but you cannot move the dollars with out trading for some premium product.

Arbitrage works better when there are not the other weird things going on that have already accounted for the price difference and the costs (which is the similar issues with both Bitfinex and Poloniex, at the moment)...

And, sure some people, rightfully so, begin to develop stronger and stronger theories that the price differences are purposeful manipulation jobs in which only the insiders can realistically take advantage of (and by the time you as a small potato, identify the issue, you have already been screwed a bit by it - by having too many dollars or too many bitcoins stuck in one place or another).

That is part of the reverse situation with the Chinese exchanges inability to move bitcoins. I am sure some of the big fish and some of the insiders are able to figure out ways to move their bitcoins, while regular customers have to wait it out until the situation resolves... or maybe hedge their bets in other ways in order to be less screwed by the one situation in which their money is stuck.

(04-27-2017 05:27 PM)Stun Wrote:  And, if it is, why isn't everyone (gen pop) doing it?

Because:

1 - They can't afford to do it. Most people have less than 500 in savings.

2 - Most people are too stupid to follow simple instructions.

(04-27-2017 05:27 PM)Stun Wrote:  BTC and ETH are 10% higher (USD) on Poloniex than GDAX (Coinbase.) Crazy.

Is anyone doing exchange arbitrage, and is it worth the time/risk after fees are factored in?

And, if it is, why isn't everyone (gen pop) doing it?

You can take Gee's theoretical approach on why or why not to do arbitrage. But his method of making money is limited to his strategy of buy high sell low, or whatever he does. Very one-sided.

OR you hear my side of someone who has done this multiple times successfully. First, it is not as easy as you think in practice. The best way to do this is to have fiat and coins on multiple exchanges. You buy/sell accordingly. This is difficult because it takes time to wire money to exchanges.

Another way to do it is to see the arbitrage and send coins to two exchanges. Sell the coins on one and buy equal amount on margin on the other. Then send the fiat from the one to pay off the margin on the other. Problem is it takes time to wire the money between the exchanges.

Third option is to sell on one and buy from the other. But you need to send the coins between exchanges, if you are using BTC this could take over an hour plus. BTC is so fast!

Biggest obstacle is time that wipes out the arbitrage. Hard to time it correctly.

It's days like these where I'm like WTF?! About to be in black out city in 5 4 3 2 1....

(04-27-2017 10:35 PM)Armogan Wrote:  

(04-27-2017 05:27 PM)Stun Wrote:  BTC and ETH are 10% higher (USD) on Poloniex than GDAX (Coinbase.) Crazy.

Is anyone doing exchange arbitrage, and is it worth the time/risk after fees are factored in?

And, if it is, why isn't everyone (gen pop) doing it?

You can take Gee's theoretical approach on why or why not to do arbitrage. But his method of making money is limited to his strategy of buy high sell low, or whatever he does. Very one-sided.

What the fuck's your problem? You have this need to denigrate a perspective, to characterize it and to assume that I do not have any experience in the matter in which I speak?

Maybe I should try to find humor in your silly-ass inept commentary and attempt to inaccurately pigeon-hole? i'm trying im trying...

(04-27-2017 10:35 PM)Armogan Wrote:  OR you hear my side of someone who has done this multiple times successfully. First, it is not as easy as you think in practice. The best way to do this is to have fiat and coins on multiple exchanges. You buy/sell accordingly. This is difficult because it takes time to wire money to exchanges.

Yes.. Amogie... you are among the most of wonderful, and possibly even the mostest..

I admit that I don't have money on all exchanges, so it is good to hear various perspectives.. especially from guys who may use exchanges that other guys do not use.. Probably most guys only have money on one or two exchanges, depending on what they are doing.. .

I currently have money in 10 locations, but currently, I am only using 5-ish for actively exchanging, though sometimes, I change which exchanges or services that I use based on fees, transfer times, security concerns, convenience or interface.. or even how much time I have to try to keep these accounts active, so sometimes I will identify price differences and I will sometimes engage in some trades to take advantage of price differences, as well.

(04-27-2017 10:35 PM)Armogan Wrote:  [ edited out ----- saying the same thing, more or less, over and over and over...... getting worse than me.. ] .

Yes... agreed with any point that suggests that you can build up dollars or bitcoin (or whatever other crypto currencies) on exchanges in a variety of ways - whether it is crypto or dollars - selling them or wiring money there.