What type of bitcoin wallets are you guys using?

Is there a good apple app?

(03-03-2017 04:02 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  What type of bitcoin wallets are you guys using?

Is there a good apple app?

Coinbase to check price and purchase.

Ledger Nano S to store.

(03-03-2017 04:02 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  What type of bitcoin wallets are you guys using?

Is there a good apple app?

There a lot of fake apps and fake wallets, so you gotta be careful about that.

I am also curious about the topic somewhat, maybe even a ledger or trezor or some other hardware wallet could be good for some coins?


Edit: I see that Redbeard beat me to some of this content.

(03-03-2017 10:23 AM)BrewDog Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 09:49 AM)Malone Wrote:  

(03-02-2017 06:21 PM)BrewDog Wrote:  This makes me sick to my goddamn stomach. I could have invested a few thousand in bitcoin in 2009, but who would do such a ridiculous fucking thing?

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2...-oslo-home

"Man buys $27 of bitcoin, forgets about them, finds they're now worth $886k"

Funny thing is that article is 4 years old. 5000 BTC = 6.4 million-ish now.

I just puked in my beer a little. Goddamn.

Goddamn.

This is like those guys that say, "I knew I should've called my bets off" when the hot shooter finally sevens out at the craps table. There's no point in begrudging someone for having dumb luck that paid off or being jealous of his windfall.

I bought 100 shares of AAPL at a split adjusted price of $0.64 in late 1999 (price at that time was $19). If I held on to those shares, after splits and appreciation they'd be worth $392,000. There's no point in kicking yourself over something like that - if anything I was very happy to make a couple grand back then when I sold in the 60's. Can't think to myself, "Shiet, I could've bought a baby straight cash" with that AAPL money. I didn't know they were gonna take over the world.

If you still have money to gamble, buy some penny stock or even some BTC at this price point instead of succumbing to hindsight bias.

(03-03-2017 01:48 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  I wonder how much legs this current move has. I'm guessing to around $1400.

SunW, are you in ETC as well as ETH? I think I missed the boat in ETH but ETC is around 15% of the price. Am I missing something?

Yep because when it split, peeps could get both ETH and ETC, so the ETH i had at the time became ETC too after the split.

JJG - I like Trezor.

(03-03-2017 09:13 PM)SunW Wrote:  

(03-03-2017 01:48 PM)Skank_Hunt Wrote:  I wonder how much legs this current move has. I'm guessing to around $1400.

SunW, are you in ETC as well as ETH? I think I missed the boat in ETH but ETC is around 15% of the price. Am I missing something?

Yep because when it split, peeps could get both ETH and ETC, so the ETH i had at the time became ETC too after the split.

JJG - I like Trezor.

I must plead some level of ignorance when it comes to these various hardware wallets - and I kind of feel like I have to start to research into the matter, and maybe even look for threads that specifically compare advantages and disadvantages to various hardware, largely offline solutions. Sure, if any RVF guy has researched into the matter and has used more than one of these solutions, then he may be able to give a kind of personal rendition of his research and his experiences and maybe even he is considering other solutions in the future. This seems to be more and more of a possible issue, especially as the price goes up and the motives for attack go up, but also the risk of loss goes up too, if for some reason you or your storage solution fails in some regard that causes you to lose bitcoins.

I just bought the KeepKey hardware wallet off Amazon for $99.

Seemed like the best for what I wanted for a reasonable price.

When it turns up I'll buy a couple of bitcoins and chuck them on.

(03-03-2017 10:40 PM)Sooth Wrote:  I just bought the KeepKey hardware wallet off Amazon for $99.

Seemed like the best for what I wanted for a reasonable price.

When it turns up I'll buy a couple of bitcoins and chuck them on.

I have a keepkey as well... nothing fancy but it keeps my BTC safe (no OS to hack, randomize key strokes, private key using the phrases)

(02-20-2017 04:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  The SEC decision on the winklevoss ETf is March 11. I believe the chance of them approving this etf is under 10%.

I think that you are putting too low of a probability on the approval outcome. And, there is nothing wrong with having different opinions regarding these kinds of matters (actually it should be expected that guys are going to have differing opinions regarding probable outcomes of various events). Sure, I agree with you that it is a relatively low probability event for approval, but I would place approval in the 35%-ish territory, rather than 10%-ish.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  SEC is meant to protect investors and the winklevoss twins haven't made a good case on what they would do if there was a hack, or some other adverse event. Really no upside for SEC approving it, only downside.

Maybe I don't understand what you are saying here? I do agree that the Winklevoss have outlined a variety of scenarios that attempt to assess risks and to account for what they would do in regards to the playing out of various future risk scenarios.

I don't really understand what you mean by "no upside for SEC approving it, only downside." It seems that if that statement were actually true, the SEC would have already denied it by now, no? You believe that the SEC is just going through the motions and they are not actually contemplating ways in which they could actually approve it? Or there are certain "deal breaker" aspects of the ETF that are very unlikely to overcome and the SEC is actually considering whether the "deal breaker" aspects of the ETF could be overcome?

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  So two scenarios: (1) it gets approved and 100-400m in funds hit the market making the price skyrocket.

Yeah, fair enough. It does seem fairly likely that quite a bit of money would go into bitcoin if such an ETF approval were to occur.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  (2) it gets denied and experiences a dip anywhere from 10-30%.

That is probably a "fair enough" assessment too. I think that sometimes folks like to take advantage of various news events to attempt to push prices in whatever direction that is affiliated with the news event. But, in the longer run, it is not only the news event that is driving the price but the context in which such news event takes place.

So, in the current scenario, we do have a continued and ongoing price appreciation, which makes it more easy for some new event to drive a correction, which may just mean that the market was due for a correction - and the news event just happened to be there to help it along.

On the other hand, if we already experienced some FUD event or some exchange implosion or some other dramatic event, then the news of the ETF denial occurring at the same time might not have much if any effect, because the market had already largely corrected from some other event.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I think this could be a unwarranted negative reaction, and the price rebounds over the coming months.

I largely agree, but again we cannot really count too many cards before they are even played, so it seems too early to call the subsequent "recovery period" because we have to see first if the correction is large or small and what else is going on at the same time. In any event, it surely does not hurt to speculate and hypothesize about various possible scenarios in order to attempt to prepare for various ways that the scenarios could play out... and how much weight to give to each development, as it occurs.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Key alts could experience a big increase as a result of this too.

"key" Alts are all over the place. Sometimes they correlate with bitcoin and other times they do the opposite. Some of them, also, have their own pump and dump facts going on, which makes specifics and generalizations hard to call regarding all of them when sometimes the events of one or two "key" alts could have an impact on what is happening with other alts, separate and apart from the BTC ETF question.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I think this is a good opportunity to exploit the outcome. Would be a perfect opportunity to do a straddle option strategy.

I agree that there can be various ways to attempt to play this and to hedge for different possible outcomes.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Haven't looked into whether calls and puts are traded though.

Any thoughts?

In late 2013, there were only a few BTC exchanges (less than 10), and mostly they only provided the ability to buy or sell BTC. Now there are close to 150 BTC exchanges, and a few of them offer more sophisticated products, and those products are going to vary from one exchange to another... So, there may be a need for a bit of experimenting or even just a need to set up varying accounts, if you think that one exchange or another offers some service that you think would be helpful to you.. and then you also have to figure out whether you trust them and whether you are sending fiat to them or bitcoins and it could take one or two weeks just to get some of this set up and to feel comfortable with how to employ the services of that particular exchange.

Furthermore, if you are a USA citizen, Armogan, then some exchanges are reluctant to offer some of their services to USA citizens because in part, they seem to want to lessen their exposure to possible USA gov scrutiny or attempts at involvement in their business.

This volatility is NUTS, i usually hate this action but it's next level last 72 hours. I've seen exchanges with $1 spread differences, textbook 11th grade arbitrage. I've made five figures last two days each just buying selling. Takes too long to transfer just send wires to 4 exchanges. Buy position in one sell in other.

Weekend gonna be slow cause banks, but monday gonna start the madness again. Get in boys, I never trade but this is prime. Send them now get in on monday.

(02-20-2017 04:08 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  The SEC decision on the winklevoss ETf is March 11. I believe the chance of them approving this etf is under 10%.

I think that you are putting too low of a probability on the approval outcome. And, there is nothing wrong with having different opinions regarding these kinds of matters (actually it should be expected that guys are going to have differing opinions regarding probable outcomes of various events). Sure, I agree with you that it is a relatively low probability event for approval, but I would place approval in the 35%-ish territory, rather than 10%-ish.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  SEC is meant to protect investors and the winklevoss twins haven't made a good case on what they would do if there was a hack, or some other adverse event. Really no upside for SEC approving it, only downside.

Maybe I don't understand what you are saying here? I do agree that the Winklevoss have outlined a variety of scenarios that attempt to assess risks and to account for what they would do in regards to the playing out of various future risk scenarios.

I don't really understand what you mean by "no upside for SEC approving it, only downside." It seems that if that statement were actually true, the SEC would have already denied it by now, no? You believe that the SEC is just going through the motions and they are not actually contemplating ways in which they could actually approve it? Or there are certain "deal breaker" aspects of the ETF that are very unlikely to overcome and the SEC is actually considering whether the "deal breaker" aspects of the ETF could be overcome?

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  So two scenarios: (1) it gets approved and 100-400m in funds hit the market making the price skyrocket.

Yeah, fair enough. It does seem fairly likely that quite a bit of money would go into bitcoin if such an ETF approval were to occur.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  (2) it gets denied and experiences a dip anywhere from 10-30%.

That is probably a "fair enough" assessment too. I think that sometimes folks like to take advantage of various news events to attempt to push prices in whatever direction that is affiliated with the news event. But, in the longer run, it is not only the news event that is driving the price but the context in which such news event takes place.

So, in the current scenario, we do have a continued and ongoing price appreciation, which makes it more easy for some new event to drive a correction, which may just mean that the market was due for a correction - and the news event just happened to be there to help it along.

On the other hand, if we already experienced some FUD event or some exchange implosion or some other dramatic event, then the news of the ETF denial occurring at the same time might not have much if any effect, because the market had already largely corrected from some other event.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I think this could be a unwarranted negative reaction, and the price rebounds over the coming months.

I largely agree, but again we cannot really count too many cards before they are even played, so it seems too early to call the subsequent "recovery period" because we have to see first if the correction is large or small and what else is going on at the same time. In any event, it surely does not hurt to speculate and hypothesize about various possible scenarios in order to attempt to prepare for various ways that the scenarios could play out... and how much weight to give to each development, as it occurs.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Key alts could experience a big increase as a result of this too.

"key" Alts are all over the place. Sometimes they correlate with bitcoin and other times they do the opposite. Some of them, also, have their own pump and dump facts going on, which makes specifics and generalizations hard to call regarding all of them when sometimes the events of one or two "key" alts could have an impact on what is happening with other alts, separate and apart from the BTC ETF question.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  I think this is a good opportunity to exploit the outcome. Would be a perfect opportunity to do a straddle option strategy.

I agree that there can be various ways to attempt to play this and to hedge for different possible outcomes.

(02-20-2017 01:49 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Haven't looked into whether calls and puts are traded though.

Any thoughts?

In late 2013, there were only a few BTC exchanges (less than 10), and mostly they only provided the ability to buy or sell BTC. Now there are close to 150 BTC exchanges, and a few of them offer more sophisticated products, and those products are going to vary from one exchange to another... So, there may be a need for a bit of experimenting or even just a need to set up varying accounts, if you think that one exchange or another offers some service that you think would be helpful to you.. and then you also have to figure out whether you trust them and whether you are sending fiat to them or bitcoins and it could take one or two weeks just to get some of this set up and to feel comfortable with how to employ the services of that particular exchange.

Furthermore, if you are a USA citizen, Armogan, then some exchanges are reluctant to offer some of their services to USA citizens because in part, they seem to want to lessen their exposure to possible USA gov scrutiny or attempts at involvement in their business.

This volatility is NUTS, i usually hate this action but it's next level last 72 hours. I've seen exchanges with $1 spread differences, textbook 11th grade arbitrage. I've made five figures last two days each just buying selling. Takes too long to transfer just send wires to 4 exchanges. Buy position in one sell in other.

Weekend gonna be slow cause banks, but monday gonna start the madness again. Get in boys, I never trade but this is prime. Send them now get in on monday.

Gonna channel JJG and post some links:

SEC's "no" decision on the Winklevoss ETF sent BTC down to the high $900's but it looks like it's already bounced back to $1100. Vinny Lingham is one of the BTC experts I admire the most and has been arguing that an approval would be premature and ultimately detrimental. https://vinnylingham.com/preventing-anot....fvcraqcux

Looked up some his tweets today and he seems happy how it's turned out: https://twitter.com/VinnyLingham/status/...gr%5Etweet

I'm not usually inclined to trade up/down the chart, so this is mostly a non-issue to me as I still believe in the long term viability of BTC. Still, it looks like another rejection is coming up in the pipeline for the SolidCoin ETF, so perhaps there will be additional buying opportunities in March.

What a ride, that was epic. So much for it being priced in, hah, dropped 30% in 2 minutes, then swooped back up 10% immediately from limit buy orders.

BTC Rollercoaster

I have to go to the gym I can't contain this energy. Wow.

China wakes up in an hour, we could see another dump. Add insult to injury they could allow withdrawals from chinese exchanges soon, which would have more pressure downwards.

Also, it's pretty clear now that the whales were manipulating the market as I thought. They pumped it in anticipation of the announcement, and wham 4pm EST dumped it all. Look at the chart, hilarious.

(03-10-2017 06:26 PM)Armogan Wrote:  What a ride, that was epic. So much for it being priced in, hah, dropped 30% in 2 minutes, then swooped back up 10% immediately from limit buy orders.

BTC Rollercoaster

I have to go to the gym I can't contain this energy. Wow.

China wakes up in an hour, we could see another dump. Add insult to injury they could allow withdrawals from chinese exchanges soon, which would have more pressure downwards.

Also, it's pretty clear now that the whales were manipulating the market as I thought. They pumped it in anticipation of the announcement, and wham 4pm EST dumped it all. Look at the chart, hilarious.

Regarding your point about "priced-in", you may have called it too soon.


It appears that the market behavior over the past 24 hours, and maybe the past 12 hours, largely supports the theory that the denial of the ETF was "priced in"

I think that overall the polls were giving it about a 35% to 40% approval, at best.


However, as time got closer, without an announcement, people began to believe more and more that the odds of ETF approval were going up.. .and surely there was manipulation to play on those sentiments both ways.. and even the extensive pump of the 12 hours before the announcement contributed to room for manipulators to manipulate.

We had more than 20% price swings on a lot exchanges, 12 hours before the announcement.

The same is true, once the announcement was made... oh my fucking god.... there were 10k coins dumped on stamp within 30 minutes, and other exchanges had similar levels.. everyone who was watching the news was trying to dump before everyone else, but in the end, BTC buyers absorbed those coins pretty well.. and some folks lost by expecting additional dumps and by not getting back in before the price bounced back.

O.k.... from here, who knows?

Like always, I am a bit nervous to put too much credibility to predict either way... but one this is that we are showing a considerable amount of ongoing buying pressures that can help to keep us largely above $1k in the shorter term (absent some extra-ordinary negative news or possibly effective FUD spreading)

(03-11-2017 11:27 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-10-2017 06:26 PM)Armogan Wrote:  What a ride, that was epic. So much for it being priced in, hah, dropped 30% in 2 minutes, then swooped back up 10% immediately from limit buy orders.

BTC Rollercoaster

I have to go to the gym I can't contain this energy. Wow.

China wakes up in an hour, we could see another dump. Add insult to injury they could allow withdrawals from chinese exchanges soon, which would have more pressure downwards.

Also, it's pretty clear now that the whales were manipulating the market as I thought. They pumped it in anticipation of the announcement, and wham 4pm EST dumped it all. Look at the chart, hilarious.

Regarding your point about "priced-in", you may have called it too soon.


It appears that the market behavior over the past 24 hours, and maybe the past 12 hours, largely supports the theory that the denial of the ETF was "priced in"

I think that overall the polls were giving it about a 35% to 40% approval, at best.


However, as time got closer, without an announcement, people began to believe more and more that the odds of ETF approval were going up.. .and surely there was manipulation to play on those sentiments both ways.. and even the extensive pump of the 12 hours before the announcement contributed to room for manipulators to manipulate.

We had more than 20% price swings on a lot exchanges, 12 hours before the announcement.

The same is true, once the announcement was made... oh my fucking god.... there were 10k coins dumped on stamp within 30 minutes, and other exchanges had similar levels.. everyone who was watching the news was trying to dump before everyone else, but in the end, BTC buyers absorbed those coins pretty well.. and some folks lost by expecting additional dumps and by not getting back in before the price bounced back.

O.k.... from here, who knows?

Like always, I am a bit nervous to put too much credibility to predict either way... but one this is that we are showing a considerable amount of ongoing buying pressures that can help to keep us largely above $1k in the shorter term (absent some extra-ordinary negative news or possibly effective FUD spreading)

I read your post twice and I still don't understand why you posted it. Was it to prove to me this wasn't priced in?

If something is priced into the market, when that event happens there is not an extreme change in price up or down. In fact, there is little volatility because the outcome of that even was already incorporated, or "priced in".

When the news of the event hit (ETF), the price dropped from $1, 284 to as low as $973 within the span of 5 minutes. This should be evidence alone to prove it was not priced in.

Additionally, the fact that there were 20% fluctuations prior to the event strengthens the assertion that it wasn't priced in. Extreme volatility was pervasive in the market as participants were unclear what impact the ETF decision would have on the price.

You can't argue that I called it "too soon". That is like a security being $100 in year 0 and also at $100 in year 5. Between years 1 - 5 there could have been crazy events that occurred making the price fluctuate between $20 - 2000; however, since the price stabilized in at the end of year 5 to $100 these events were priced in? No.

It wasn't priced in, but we saw a rebound, from market participants recognizing that the drop was too extreme. This is exactly what I called three weeks ago.

In fact, I'm way to happy right now to even argue this. The events planned out exactly as I predicted, I made money, used some of that money to buy a $400 ticket to see my favorite band of all time, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, at the Staples Center. Went to a club in DTLA after, and as Global Entry would ask me, "Did you smash?" Yes. I smashed only faggots don't smash.

Then here we are talking about some bullshit whether it was priced in or not. It doesn't matter. Shabbat Shalom.

Bitcoin very may well go to $1,850 as SunW predicted or $2,000+. But I see other interesting things in the ecosystem playing out right now. I'm more focused on % returns instead of $.

My reaction to ethereum

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  

(03-11-2017 11:27 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-10-2017 06:26 PM)Armogan Wrote:  What a ride, that was epic. So much for it being priced in, hah, dropped 30% in 2 minutes, then swooped back up 10% immediately from limit buy orders.

BTC Rollercoaster

I have to go to the gym I can't contain this energy. Wow.

China wakes up in an hour, we could see another dump. Add insult to injury they could allow withdrawals from chinese exchanges soon, which would have more pressure downwards.

Also, it's pretty clear now that the whales were manipulating the market as I thought. They pumped it in anticipation of the announcement, and wham 4pm EST dumped it all. Look at the chart, hilarious.

Regarding your point about "priced-in", you may have called it too soon.


It appears that the market behavior over the past 24 hours, and maybe the past 12 hours, largely supports the theory that the denial of the ETF was "priced in"

I think that overall the polls were giving it about a 35% to 40% approval, at best.


However, as time got closer, without an announcement, people began to believe more and more that the odds of ETF approval were going up.. .and surely there was manipulation to play on those sentiments both ways.. and even the extensive pump of the 12 hours before the announcement contributed to room for manipulators to manipulate.

We had more than 20% price swings on a lot exchanges, 12 hours before the announcement.

The same is true, once the announcement was made... oh my fucking god.... there were 10k coins dumped on stamp within 30 minutes, and other exchanges had similar levels.. everyone who was watching the news was trying to dump before everyone else, but in the end, BTC buyers absorbed those coins pretty well.. and some folks lost by expecting additional dumps and by not getting back in before the price bounced back.

O.k.... from here, who knows?

Like always, I am a bit nervous to put too much credibility to predict either way... but one this is that we are showing a considerable amount of ongoing buying pressures that can help to keep us largely above $1k in the shorter term (absent some extra-ordinary negative news or possibly effective FUD spreading)

I read your post twice and I still don't understand why you posted it. Was it to prove to me this wasn't priced in?

Yes. Mostly responding to your "priced in" comment.

I was not trying to prove anything about wrong or right... I was just giving my opinion. O.k.... well, maybe I was trying to attempting to rebutt your comment about not priced in.

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  If something is priced into the market, when that event happens there is not an extreme change in price up or down. In fact, there is little volatility because the outcome of that even was already incorporated, or "priced in".

Whatever.....

These concepts are a matter of degree, rather than absolutes.

Largely there were around 65% of the market expecting a decline and about 35% of the market expecting approval.

Otherwise manipulators are going to manipulate. You notice that about 12 hours beforehand the price went up to $1350.. that is mostly manipulation.

I don't see any need to argue about this point.

As I largely already said I think that market performance (especially the rebound and the timing and degree of the magnitude of the recovery) largely establish the concept of ETF denial being priced in... in spite of some short term attempts at manipulation and folks watching closely in order to attempt to maximize their own profits based on an expected news announcement.

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  When the news of the event hit (ETF), the price dropped from $1, 284 to as low as $973 within the span of 5 minutes. This should be evidence alone to prove it was not priced in.

That is called a bunch of people watching the news and attempting to profit and to sell before anyone else.. As you said, didn't last too long.... which is supportive of the concept of "priced in"

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Additionally, the fact that there was 20% fluctuations prior to the event strengthens the assertion that it wasn't priced in. Extreme volatility was pervasive in the market as participants were unclear what impact the ETF decision would have on the price.

Again. That be call "manipulation" - before the actual announcement, to an attempt to play on the expectations of the 35% who expect an ETF approval and maybe convince a few others that maybe the ETF might have been approved.. and to pump accordingly (makes for a better dump).. that is called manipulation, not priced in.. but it still supports the theory of priced in... overall.

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  You can't argue that I called it "too soon". That is like a security being $100 in year 0 and also at $100 in year 5. Between years 1 - 5 there could have been crazy events that occurred making the price fluctuate between $20 - 2000; however, since the price stabilized in at the end of year 5 to $100 the event was priced in? No.

Again... whatever.

The small point does not really matter that much, but even your attempt at a defense seems to support my assertion.

Sometimes you do not know how to characterize some market events until after a certain period of time passes, an the more time passes, the more that you can lock in certain theories about what is the cause and what are the dynamics. The more that you are in the middle of the price movements, the more difficult it is to determine with as much persuasion.

You can call it what you like, but if you are attempting to call it within about a day of it happening, you are probably too soon, in my humble bumble opinion. If your opinion is different, then nothing wrong with that.

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  It wasn't priced in, but we saw a rebound, from market participants recognizing that the drop was too extreme. This is exactly what I called three weeks ago.

Sounds like you just want to be right about some prediction, and in the end, who cares?

Each of us have working theories at various points, and if we are trying to be reasonable and prudent about it, then we are not going to attempt to predict in absolute ways or to claim that we were right about all dynamics, merely because the market moved in the way that we thought was most probable at an earlier time. Sure it is great if we are able to attempt to predict and time these things and to adjust our strategies accordingly, but it seems a bit nonsensical of a conversation for anyone to be suggesting that they have some kind of vision of the future price movements of bitcoin with any kind of precision (especially when it comes to shorter term price movements)... because there are way too many variables (both known and unknown) to be able to conclude with much if any consistent precision.

So you can pat yourself on the back all you like, it just seems to be a nonsensical and fruitless conversation.

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  In fact, I'm way to happy right now to even argue this. The events planned out exactly as I predicted, I made money, used some of that money to buy a $400 ticket to see my favorite band of all time, the Red Hot Chili Peppers, at the Staples Center. Went to a club in DTLA after, and as Global Entry would ask me, "Did you smash?" Yes. I smashed only faggots don't smash.

Certainly with high volatility there are great opportunities to make a lot of money.. especially for guys who are already in and who have already established their positions.

We can even disagree with a variety of matters while each of us profiting under slightly different predictions about what will happen, when it will happen and reasons for it to happen.

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Then here we are talking about some bullshit whether it was priced in or not. It doesn't matter. Shabbat Shalom.

I agree with you. Bitcoin is in a real great place at the moment.. ETF or no ETF...

And actually the denial of the ETF may have been a bit of a blessing in disguise to keep bitcoin more "pure", if there is such a thing?

(03-12-2017 02:47 PM)Armogan Wrote:  Bitcoin very may well go to $1,850 as SunW predicted or $2,000+. But I see other interesting things in the ecosystem playing out right now. I'm more focused on % returns instead of $.

I agree here too.

It remains a bit unclear about when or how fast BTC prices may go to $1800, $2000, $5000 or some higher price point, yet I remain of the opinion that even if bitcoin bounces around in the $800 to $1400 territory for several months, we are still in a great place.. at the moment, the odds seem to be fairly decent that BTC prices may soon bounce above the $1400s price territory.

We still have some great upwards BTC price pressures, over the weekend and going into Monday. Sure we could experience another price correction at any time, but there seems to be some folks who are wanting to get into bitcoin.. and who may had thought that denial of the ETF was going to bring them further opportunities to get in at a lower price (and it is beginning to appear that lower prices may well not happen - beyond the already blip that occurred).

I had seen some postings in other BTC threads in which some posters are theorizing our current BTC price situation as a kind of Silk road news. If you recall in Silk road in mid-2013, many folks had considered that the "death" of silk road might be the death of bitcoin, and in the short-term the BTC price plummeted. However, after a pretty short period of time, the BTC price began to come back up with folks concluding that bitcoin was more than just silk road and there were more fundamentals behind bitcoin, rather than just silk road.

In this case, the same could be analogized with the ETF situation, and some folks may be coming to realize that if they are waiting for a further BTC price crashes or if they think bitcoin might need an ETF for the BTC price to explode upwards, then they might get left behind if the BTC price goes up anyhow, which seems to be what is currently happening. Therefore, there could be a certain amount of FOMO going on in regards to some folks continuing to want to get in and other folks a bit nervous about selling at this time. Accordingly, there seems to be more people wanting to by than those who are willing to sell, and whether the FOMO lasts or is durable, may be another question that could take a bit of time to see how it plays out.

If bitcoin doesn't fall after this, I don't see a bearish reason, unless the BU debate derails it. $1825 looks very possible.

Question for thread: if stocks fall, will bitcoin still do well? I feel bitcoin will be a hedge against market turmoil.

(03-13-2017 09:37 AM)SunW Wrote:  If bitcoin doesn't fall after this, I don't see a bearish reason, unless the BU debate derails it. $1825 looks very possible.

Question for thread: if stocks fall, will bitcoin still do well? I feel bitcoin will be a hedge against market turmoil.

1) how soon are you thinking $1825? Initially you said by the end of the year, but it could happen within days or weeks (of course no guarantees, just talking about possible market dynamics)

2) Even though sometimes, bitcoin might sometimes parallel some market movements, we are likely thinking about bitcoin in similar ways, as a hedge and also maybe even a bit of an inverse relationship. There are also some folks who have been describing bitcoin as a whole new asset class that is still being determined. I actually think that part of the difficulty with bitcoin remains that it is still not mature, and there is the potential that it is still in the beginning stages of its s-curve adoption.. Several other RVF guys have mentioned this too, including Issac Jordan. So we cannot really attempt to peg bitcoin as if it were a mature asset class. Sure other guys can chime in on this point too, especially if they see matters differently or if they have better ways to explain the BTC price situation that they see.

ETF? Bitcoin dosent give a fuck...

(03-13-2017 09:46 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-13-2017 09:37 AM)SunW Wrote:  If bitcoin doesn't fall after this, I don't see a bearish reason, unless the BU debate derails it. $1825 looks very possible.

Question for thread: if stocks fall, will bitcoin still do well? I feel bitcoin will be a hedge against market turmoil.

1) how soon are you thinking $1825? Initially you said by the end of the year, but it could happen within days or weeks (of course no guarantees, just talking about possible market dynamics)

2) Even though sometimes, bitcoin might sometimes parallel some market movements, we are likely thinking about bitcoin in similar ways, as a hedge and also maybe even a bit of an inverse relationship. There are also some folks who have been describing bitcoin as a whole new asset class that is still being determined. I actually think that part of the difficulty with bitcoin remains that it is still not mature, and there is the potential that it is still in the beginning stages of its s-curve adoption.. Several other RVF guys have mentioned this too, including Issac Jordan. So we cannot really attempt to peg bitcoin as if it were a mature asset class. Sure other guys can chime in on this point too, especially if they see matters differently or if they have better ways to explain the BTC price situation that they see.

Up to the BU debate. If this debate gets resolved, it's headed to 1825 fast. But damn it, this debate sucks bigly.

Good view.

(03-13-2017 11:25 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(03-13-2017 09:46 AM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(03-13-2017 09:37 AM)SunW Wrote:  If bitcoin doesn't fall after this, I don't see a bearish reason, unless the BU debate derails it. $1825 looks very possible.

Question for thread: if stocks fall, will bitcoin still do well? I feel bitcoin will be a hedge against market turmoil.

1) how soon are you thinking $1825? Initially you said by the end of the year, but it could happen within days or weeks (of course no guarantees, just talking about possible market dynamics)

2) Even though sometimes, bitcoin might sometimes parallel some market movements, we are likely thinking about bitcoin in similar ways, as a hedge and also maybe even a bit of an inverse relationship. There are also some folks who have been describing bitcoin as a whole new asset class that is still being determined. I actually think that part of the difficulty with bitcoin remains that it is still not mature, and there is the potential that it is still in the beginning stages of its s-curve adoption.. Several other RVF guys have mentioned this too, including Issac Jordan. So we cannot really attempt to peg bitcoin as if it were a mature asset class. Sure other guys can chime in on this point too, especially if they see matters differently or if they have better ways to explain the BTC price situation that they see.

Up to the BU debate. If this debate gets resolved, it's headed to 1825 fast. But damn it, this debate sucks bigly.

Good view.

Sure... it is kind of difficult to follow regarding how much this "BU debate" is affecting prices and the extent to which the BU camp is making any kind of significant ongoing impact on BTC price dynamics.

Sure there is a lot of noise about it and a lot of misinformation, so in that sense, there are probably quite a few folks who get a bit mislead by the whole concept - and in the end, these folks that are "on the margins" regarding bitcoin might not buy or might not buy as much or might sell or might sell some more.

But you are probably correct that the BU matter is playing into BTC prices in some kind of way.

I think that the title of the below linked article is correct, and they bring up several decent points to justify the conclusion of the title

That is "Why bitcoin unlimited should be correctly classified as an attempted robbery of bitcoin, not a fork":

https:[email protected]/why-bitc....8cf251vxv

Sold 750 eth at $53. I'll buy more when it's cheaper.

(01-04-2017 10:48 AM)SunW Wrote:  JJG - know you didn't say $5K, no worries. We're doing good.

GK - I own 5K ETH, 3K under $4.

(01-02-2017 10:31 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

(01-02-2017 08:13 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(05-29-2016 02:12 PM)SunW Wrote:  Thread has 371,817 views

Price was $517 then and now it has 461,416 views. Dayum.

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Gots me a problem. I have too many bitcoins from purchases last year and this year.

I want to see if I can predict btc's price close again and make it 3 out of 3 years right. For 2017, btc will end above $1825. This thread will have over 1 million views.

(08-04-2016 09:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Got 1000 ether at $8. My guess is year end, bitcoin will be 900+ and ether 25+.

(03-17-2017 08:48 AM)SunW Wrote:  Sold 750 eth at $53. I'll buy more when it's cheaper.

(01-04-2017 10:48 AM)SunW Wrote:  JJG - know you didn't say $5K, no worries. We're doing good.

GK - I own 5K ETH, 3K under $4.

(01-02-2017 10:31 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

(01-02-2017 08:13 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(05-29-2016 02:12 PM)SunW Wrote:  Thread has 371,817 views

Price was $517 then and now it has 461,416 views. Dayum.

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Gots me a problem. I have too many bitcoins from purchases last year and this year.

I want to see if I can predict btc's price close again and make it 3 out of 3 years right. For 2017, btc will end above $1825. This thread will have over 1 million views.

(08-04-2016 09:14 AM)SunW Wrote:  

(08-03-2016 08:36 AM)SunW Wrote:  Bought 20 @ 521. Ridin the wave

Got 1000 ether at $8. My guess is year end, bitcoin will be 900+ and ether 25+.

First, many of us know that this is not a thread about Alt coins; however, there may be ways to frame the issue in terms of bitcoin, maybe?

Seems good to have sold a decent amount of ETH at $53. Maybe selling even more, would have been better, but what do I know about these pump and dump alts?

We can look http://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/ and recognize that a large number of alts are being pumped and over a few weeks there may have been opportunities in the 100% to 1000% territory, especially Dash and Ethereum. Does not necessarily mean they are good investments, even though could have been much profits in the short term - and even for those who invested and held them for a year or more... waiting for such a pump possibility.


But then what will be the relationship with bitcoin? We know that bitcoin has much more liquidity than these other coins, but the price correlation is not always very clear. Sure, I can sit here and prognosticate a bubble burst of any of the coins, but I doubt that I really have any kind of meaningful ability to know at what point I believe the bubbles will burst. Looking at Dash from $9 to $90 - Could it do another 2x or 3x or even more? I really would not consider it to be a safe place to gamble too much of my money.

Regarding security. The security of a large majority of these alts to not approach anything near the level of bitcoin's security, so as their market cap goes up, they become much greater targets.

Sure a lot of these crypto price movements remain interesting, for the time being.