Post: #76

(11-02-2016 10:54 PM)Lux Interior Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 11:14 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 06:47 AM)Malone Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 12:31 AM)Lux Interior Wrote:  Put the house on Clinton.
Trump needs a miracle.

Yes, please do this Lux. We want you to succeed. Feel free to post your betting slip here for extra congratulations!

Yeah Lux, I dare you to post something. I'll refrain from calling you names here because I know you're FOS anyway, and the gnashing of your teeth will be satisfying enough.

Trump to the House!

Ok my good man I will make a gentleman's wager with you here for all to see.
I will bet you $1000 that trump won't win.

He needs a miracle right? Give me 20:1.

Post: #77

(11-03-2016 04:43 AM)Malone Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 10:54 PM)Lux Interior Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 11:14 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 06:47 AM)Malone Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 12:31 AM)Lux Interior Wrote:  Put the house on Clinton.
Trump needs a miracle.

Yes, please do this Lux. We want you to succeed. Feel free to post your betting slip here for extra congratulations!

Yeah Lux, I dare you to post something. I'll refrain from calling you names here because I know you're FOS anyway, and the gnashing of your teeth will be satisfying enough.

Trump to the House!

Ok my good man I will make a gentleman's wager with you here for all to see.
I will bet you $1000 that trump won't win.

He needs a miracle right? Give me 20:1.

But I thought I was FOS?
You're not backing away now are you.....wheres that cockiness gone?

Post: #78

(11-03-2016 07:36 AM)Lux Interior Wrote:  

(11-03-2016 04:43 AM)Malone Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 10:54 PM)Lux Interior Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 11:14 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  

(11-02-2016 06:47 AM)Malone Wrote:  Yes, please do this Lux. We want you to succeed. Feel free to post your betting slip here for extra congratulations!

Yeah Lux, I dare you to post something. I'll refrain from calling you names here because I know you're FOS anyway, and the gnashing of your teeth will be satisfying enough.

Trump to the House!

Ok my good man I will make a gentleman's wager with you here for all to see.
I will bet you $1000 that trump won't win.

He needs a miracle right? Give me 20:1.

But I thought I was FOS?
You're not backing away now are you.....wheres that cockiness gone?

Oh and you're a

Post: #79

^Lux et al

I'm considering the above proposal from Lux, but I would like to know what people consider a fair determination of the "winner".

What if Clinton wins the vote but gets indicted or somehow doesn't become president. What if Trump wins the vote but some weird insurrection tries to stop him? Is it ultimate determined by the inauguration on Jan 20-21?

I'm even wondering what the gambling site rules are for this.

Finally, don't be insulting. Even though I believe this market is extremely inefficient, why would I take EV on Trump, when he's out there around in the range of +200 to +350?

Only silly people suggest such things. And don't reply with the "if you are so sure" crap all the idiots regurgitate, because I can say the exact same thing back to you (as Malone just did with his 20:1 example).

Post: #80

All of you are polluting this thread. Take the conversation elsewhere.

Post: #81

Are no Hillary supporters even admitting that she is drastically losing momentum in the "polls," at the very least?

Just wondering.

Post: #82

(11-03-2016 03:09 PM)Kid Twist Wrote:  Are no Hillary supporters even admitting that she is drastically losing momentum in the "polls," at the very least?

Just wondering.

I'm not a Hillary supporter, however I have to admit that I had put a good amount of money on Hillary at worse odd than one could get now. The risk of an unusual event which could favor Trump has increased. However, as it is now, he will not get elected, plus he is running out of time.

Being red pill is being realistic. I increase my Hillary position now at 1.43 (Betfair odd).

Post: #83

Ok, so no Takers then.....didn't think so.

Post: #84

(11-03-2016 10:47 PM)Lux Interior Wrote:  Ok, so no Takers then.....didn't think so.

I'll take you at current market rate for 1k CAD. Either you risk 3k against my 1k or you risk 1k against my 330. Your choice. Reply back if interested and I'll consider the bet official when a trusted 3rd party escrow like Roosh confirms receipt of your funds.

Post: #85

Markets are down.

To everyone who hasn't jumped on board yet:



To those of us who've been invested for months:

Post: #86

What explains the recent drop in Trump's odds?

I thought a Trump win was becoming more likely from an objective perspective. And yet, his betting odds have gone from 3.00 to 4.33 overnight.

Not complaining. But what gives?

Post: #87

(11-06-2016 04:24 AM)Nascimento Wrote:  What explains the recent drop in Trump's odds?

I thought a Trump win was becoming more likely from an objective perspective. And yet, his betting odds have gone from 3.00 to 4.33 overnight.

Not complaining. But what gives?

People piling money into what they think is free money (long Hillary).

Post: #88

(11-06-2016 09:30 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  

(11-06-2016 04:24 AM)Nascimento Wrote:  What explains the recent drop in Trump's odds?

I thought a Trump win was becoming more likely from an objective perspective. And yet, his betting odds have gone from 3.00 to 4.33 overnight.

Not complaining. But what gives?

People piling money into what they think is free money (long Hillary).

The markets are TANKING. I am down across the board.

I thought it was what Peregrine suggests, free money for long Hillary, so I checked out the comments section of the market. I expected a large majority of comments claiming "haha idiot drumpf supporters, free money for me! Hillary landslide!" Instead, the comments are about 60% Trump supporters.....what?

I have no idea why the odds are down, but Trump4Prez is at 22 fucking cents.

Actual picture of me this entire all weekend:

Post: #89

I wouldn't sweat it. I'm wondering whether to double down at +400 or to wait for better odds. If someone gave me +400 on a fair coin toss, I'd take it immediately.

Post: #90

I think the odds for Trump are dropping after the FBI dropping the case again against Clinton.

The earlier news swayed the polls a bit which affected the betting odds.

My opinion or prediction hasn't changed, but i'm just glad i can get +400 as opposed to +190 a few days ago.

Post: #91

I like +400, but I'm waiting for something marginally better. Already moving money into place.

Post: #92

(11-07-2016 08:51 AM)Peregrine Wrote:  I like +400, but I'm waiting for something marginally better. Already moving money into place.

I maxed out betting yes on whether Pence will be the next VP. Right around .22-.24

I still have some money left and can't find a market that's essentially the same as Trump winning so I can get the rest of my money in.

Any suggestions? All the markets I've found so far (like will a woman be the next president) are maxed out.

Post: #93

(11-07-2016 02:42 PM)AneroidOcean Wrote:  I still have some money left and can't find a market that's essentially the same as Trump winning so I can get the rest of my money in.

Any suggestions? All the markets I've found so far (like will a woman be the next president) are maxed out.

Forex. Short USD.

Post: #94

(11-07-2016 02:42 PM)AneroidOcean Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 08:51 AM)Peregrine Wrote:  I like +400, but I'm waiting for something marginally better. Already moving money into place.

I maxed out betting yes on whether Pence will be the next VP. Right around .22-.24

I still have some money left and can't find a market that's essentially the same as Trump winning so I can get the rest of my money in.

Any suggestions? All the markets I've found so far (like will a woman be the next president) are maxed out.

You called Pence as next VP? I'm impressed. When did you make that call? I had no idea until the MSM first floated his name.

I would not short USD, I'd rather short MXN. It's Wall Street's de facto indicator.

Post: #95

I am still convinced that PredictIt is manipulated.

They just sent out an email with a "prediction" that Clinton will win and Dems will take the Senate.

If they cared about controlling outside influences on their "academic" experiment, they wouldn't be commenting at all.

Post: #96

(11-07-2016 06:28 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  You called Pence as next VP? I'm impressed. When did you make that call? I had no idea until the MSM first floated his name.

I would not short USD, I'd rather short MXN. It's Wall Street's de facto indicator.

No, no, I didn't meant to give that impression. Trump for President was closed, so I bet on Pence to be elected VP (just earlier today). I in no way bet on who would be picked by the candidates as their running mates (VP).

If I'd done that I'd probably be rolling in dough right now and I'd be damn impressed with myself.

So no recommendations on other non-closed markets? I'd like to get the rest of my money bet as it's going to charge me to withdraw it and I'd rather make a good bet with it.

Post: #97

(11-07-2016 08:56 PM)AneroidOcean Wrote:  

(11-07-2016 06:28 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  You called Pence as next VP? I'm impressed. When did you make that call? I had no idea until the MSM first floated his name.

I would not short USD, I'd rather short MXN. It's Wall Street's de facto indicator.

No, no, I didn't meant to give that impression. Trump for President was closed, so I bet on Pence to be elected VP (just earlier today). I in no way bet on who would be picked by the candidates as their running mates (VP).

If I'd done that I'd probably be rolling in dough right now and I'd be damn impressed with myself.

So no recommendations on other non-closed markets? I'd like to get the rest of my money bet as it's going to charge me to withdraw it and I'd rather make a good bet with it.

Gotcha. I don't think I saw any correct predictions of Pence. FBIanon guessed Flynn. Even leaked oppo research didn't have Pence as a possibility.

Post: #98

@Peregrine. Where are you betting. On bet365 you can bet on the movement of stock exchanges. Could try that if you are on there.

Post: #99

(11-07-2016 08:51 AM)Peregrine Wrote:  I like +400, but I'm waiting for something marginally better. Already moving money into place.

Paddy Power is offering not only bets on who wins, but also on the number of votes they get in the electoral college.

Their odds on Trump winning were 4:1 this morning (UK time) but have since dropped to 7:2. However their odds for him getting 270-299 seats are 6:1 and on him getting 300-329 seats are 12:1. So if you're convinced that Trump is going to win, then you can get better odds betting on how many electoral college votes he wins.

Post: #100

Looks like Presidential markets are maxed out. If going in on Pence, what would the upside be?