Post: #26

(10-10-2016 02:02 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  Bet365 is at +350 right now with trump and -500 with Hillary. I already have a k on it and thinking about putting another k on Trump. What do you guys think?

I'm considering another 5k, but am a tad concerned about the GOP fucking up his ground game.

Post: #27

I thought about betting on Trump, but after seeing him down 14% in poles. I just feel its not worth the risk. Even if the poll was before the debate. America votes with their emotions and that locker room tape probably cost him the election.

Post: #28

@Savage - I'm using sportsbet.com.au, You should be able to use that, its an Australian website. The odds on that website varies I put in a $225 bet at 4.50 odds for Trump the other day and now its 4.75. Last week it was ranging from 2.7-3.5. I'm really inclined to just drop $1000 on Trump, but I'll wait til next week.

Post: #29

I put 230 $ on Trump yesterday at 4.40. Today they're at 4.20. I don't think we'll see juicier opportunities.

Wonder what the odds were when he announced. Did anyone here get in very early?

Phil Jackson, those tapes are already forgotten. The news cycle moves too fast. More and more people have 'Trump Fatigue', where they don't even care what he says anymore, because he routinely smack talks all the time.

Post: #30

Yeah just saw this morning on bet365 he's at +400, up from +350 yesterday. Hillary on the other hand is now at -600.

Very early on he was at around +20 000 before any debate. I saw it at +12 000. I got in at +700.

Post: #31

To what extent are you guys estimating that the turnout is NOT going to be predicted by the polls/models currently employed?

The fact is that if it is record turnout, and I think it will be, Trump wins fairly easily.

There have been at least 3-4 times already in a year where people said he was finished. Each time it was wrong, and he bounced back. No?

Post: #32

Don't buy only because you're a Trump supporter. Him winning is trading at 6.3 on Betfair. That's a implied probability only 15.8%.



Nate Silver models are also at 16%: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016...id=rrpromo
For comparison here's 2012: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...cast/?_r=0

I don't see the market trend reversing towards the election day. Hence I'd not even buy now just to sell before election. Only chance of cashing in on Trump would be some external black swan event.

Post: #33

(((Nate Silver))) models, seriously? You realize he's hardcore against Trump and has been wrong with every prediction this whole election?

Post: #34

Today Trump was at +450. He'e gone up by 50 for the past few days. Waiting to see where it goes.

Post: #35

How is this working? Trump for the win is at 18 cents right now. So if he wins they'll give me 1$ per share?

Crap just saw it's not available for Canada.

Post: #36

bet 365 is available in Canada. I just threw another thousand on him because he's at +500 today.

Post: #37

Just put $100 on Trump.



MAGA

Post: #38

Don't think its gonna get higher than +500. Its been there for a few days now

Post: #39

What do you guys reckon about Trump winning the popular vote by over 10%? Because ladbrokes.com has those odds at +2000.

Post: #40

^nice find. I'm curious also

Post: #41

Betting sites & book keepers go off the irrationality of the buyers and sellers who get their information from the (((MSM))), (((pollsters))), and poll analysts like (((Nate Silver))). Even if Trump doesn't win the election it's likely his poll numbers will jump back before November 8th. Betfair.com.au has him at 6.4 currently. I can see that going to 3.0 before the election again. (((pollsters))) will show the race being neck and neck as it probably is right now according to LA Times poll rather than Trump being -7%.

PS: anyone that doubts the credibility of the pollsters, just look at who contributes funds to them. You'll see Open Society Foundations, Hillary campaigners, etc.

Post: #42

Welp, Trump has climbed to 6.0 over the last couples of days, but now he's trending back down, at 5.5 right now. Hope you guys bought in at 6.0 odds, those are pretty good multipliers considering that his win is pretty much assured by now

Post: #43

Yeah just saw he's back down to +450

Post: #44

(10-15-2016 10:51 PM)Sooth Wrote:  What do you guys reckon about Trump winning the popular vote by over 10%? Because ladbrokes.com has those odds at +2000.

Not likely, but I'd happily throw a hundred bucks on it as a flyer.

Post: #45

(10-11-2016 11:56 AM)Kid Twist Wrote:  To what extent are you guys estimating that the turnout is NOT going to be predicted by the polls/models currently employed?

The fact is that if it is record turnout, and I think it will be, Trump wins fairly easily.

There have been at least 3-4 times already in a year where people said he was finished. Each time it was wrong, and he bounced back. No?

What do you think will be the turnout? I think Hillary could have a lower turnout than Obama. More Black men will probably switch to Trump or stay home. Millenials might stay home or vote 3rd party. Hispanics may not go up if they are not eligible to vote.

There will be a alot of white men for Trump but will that be enough to beat Hillary? On one hand I think the polls are inaccurate, but they can't be all skiewed or unskewed polls?

Post: #46

As the election comes to a close all the rigged polls will have to reflect reality or they will not be credible again. This us why the last polls in the brexit polling were off weeks and months before and suddenly began cranking out more accurate polling days before the election.

Post: #47

I just went on predictit looks like they have reached the maximum number of shares for the general election bet between Trump and Hillary. You can still vote for a Trump win by betting on who will win the VP.

Post: #48

(10-14-2016 04:52 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  bet 365 is available in Canada. I just threw another thousand on him because he's at +500 today.

where do you go to bet ? I'm only finding sports and financial.

Post: #49

Ladbrokes doing buzzword bingo haha, might have some fun on this:

Post: #50

(10-17-2016 09:06 AM)Enjoythedecline Wrote:  

(10-14-2016 04:52 PM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  bet 365 is available in Canada. I just threw another thousand on him because he's at +500 today.

where do you go to bet ? I'm only finding sports and financial.

You go to Sports, Specials and then North America