Post: #1

Anyone following this story? More trouble for the Euro-zone:

The Telegraph Wrote:The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down – and the Euro

This year, there has been an unfolding Italian crisis, as bad debts mount, and yet Germany has insisted on enforcing euro-zone rules that say depositors – that is, ordinary people – have to shoulder some of the losses when a bank is in trouble.

For Germany to then turn around and say, actually we are bailing out our own bank, while letting everyone else’s fail, looks, to put it mildly, just a little inconsistent. Heck, a few people might even start to wonder if there was one rule for Germany, and another one for the rest. In truth, it would become impossible to maintain a hard-line in Italy, and probably in Greece as well.

And yet, if Deutsche Bank went down, and the German Government didn’t step in with a rescue, that would be a huge blow to Europe’s largest economy – and the global financial system. No one really knows where the losses would end up, or what the knock-on impact would be. It would almost certainly land a fatal blow to the Italian banking system, and the French and Spanish banks would be next. Even worse, the euro-zone economy, with France and Italy already back at zero growth, and still struggling with the impact of Brexit, is hardly in any shape to withstand a shock of that magnitude.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016...--and-the/

Post: #2

I am indeed following this story/issue with interest. This would seem to boil down to an either or scenario.

Either Merkel or the €uro goes. From my point of view either would be a satisfactory outcome.

The clock is ticking it's just a case of when the bomb goes off.

Post: #3

I've been hearing this kind of thing for the best part of a decade now.

An economic meltdown seems inevitable but apparently nobody is smart enough to predict its timing with any clarity.

Guns, gold and grub. Be your own bank.

Post: #4

The Euro as currency was doomed from the start.

Post: #5

A recession of some kind seems like a realistic possibility, but I'm not so sure about a global meltdown. Economic doomsayers have been issuing their warnings ever since the 2008-9 depression ended, and nothing major has happened so far.

Still, one can never be too sure. Diversifying your assets has always been a good strategy to follow.

Post: #6

The measures they talk about are bail-in's and they did it to Russians in Cyprus, who are not even EU citizens but had money in banks there.

I keep hearing on the radio here (UK) that your savings are protected up to 75k GBP if the banks are caught up in problems. A part of me wants to think its false advertising and leading people into a false sense of security.

Post: #7

Will SHTF before or after the US elections (November 8)?

Post: #8

I have been casually hearing about DB's impending implosion for about a year now.

The basic gist of it is that if they go, it's going to make the 2008 crisis look like child's play; especially if there isn't some sort of intervention.

However, any kind of intervention will just delay the pain further and make everything worse.

We really need to let some failed businesses and organizations fall, debts to be wiped, and just start fresh. It should have been done in 2008 but now the pain is gonna be way worse.

One of the biggest problems on the planet right now is how big banks are completed protected from the risk of their stupid actions. They can act reckless with absolute no consequence yet the majority has to pay for it with a fucked up economy.

The wealthy have a ton of money in financial products and LOVE these low interest rates so they will fight tooth and nail to keep the broken system float but it's all going to come crashing down eventually. What are reserve banks going to do? Reduce interest rates further? HHAHAHAHA... we have negative interest rates already in some places.

The only option left is let the euro collapse, wipe the debts, and start over. That or just enjoy a slow decline into the ditch.

I would be watching BitCoin and other digital currencies closely as people at the mainstream level lose faith in the system.

Post: #9

When all the banks crash the sun will still rise the next day. That's my answer to the too big to fail bullshit. The problem is not Islam, its the cancer inside our societies.

Post: #10

(09-28-2016 12:43 PM)The Black Knight Wrote:  The wealthy have a ton of money in financial products and LOVE these low interest rates so they will fight tooth and nail to keep the broken system float but it's all going to come crashing down eventually.

How do low interest rates benefit them? I don't doubt that they do, otherwise they wouldn't allow them; but I can't quite wrap my head around how it works.

Post: #11

There will be a downturn, it's only a matter of time, and I think if you can time it correctly, it will be sometime around November 9th.

Long VIX and its ETFs, there's going to be one hell of a ride.

Post: #12

(09-28-2016 05:54 PM)dispenser Wrote:  

(09-28-2016 12:43 PM)The Black Knight Wrote:  The wealthy have a ton of money in financial products and LOVE these low interest rates so they will fight tooth and nail to keep the broken system float but it's all going to come crashing down eventually.

How do low interest rates benefit them? I don't doubt that they do, otherwise they wouldn't allow them; but I can't quite wrap my head around how it works.

They can borrow money cheaply and buy more shit; including stock to increase stock value.

Post: #13

Whatever the case, have no doubt that the elite have a plan to manage this.

It will invariably involve a world war after which few people or liberties will survive.

Post: #14

Eh, guess I'm a lot more cynical than most of you because I bought DB this morning. There's so many entrenched interests propping this bank up and it's off all alone by itself whereas Lehman failed in the middle of a fiscal crisis with everything falling apart all at once. My money is on the DOJ renegotiating the fines and/or DB ultimately getting bailed out without the German government actually calling it a bailout.

Post: #15

(09-28-2016 05:54 PM)dispenser Wrote:  

(09-28-2016 12:43 PM)The Black Knight Wrote:  The wealthy have a ton of money in financial products and LOVE these low interest rates so they will fight tooth and nail to keep the broken system float but it's all going to come crashing down eventually.

How do low interest rates benefit them? I don't doubt that they do, otherwise they wouldn't allow them; but I can't quite wrap my head around how it works.

Lower rates forces people further out the risk curve to maintain the return that they need to fund their lifestyle, pumping up the value of financial assets such as stocks. Rich people own the most stocks.

Post: #16

Haven't we heard this song before?
It feels more as the kind of lame excuse used to yet get another cash injection paid for by the mortal citizens.
Hoping it's true that at one point the milk will genuinely run out and they actually crash.

Parziva Wrote:When all the banks crash the sun will still rise the next day. That's my answer to the too big to fail bullshit. The problem is not Islam, its the cancer inside our societies.

Aye! And those of us who invested in genuine abilities and our immediate modifiable environment are more likely to seize that day!

Post: #17

If there is one good outcome from all of this it is that Merkel's grip is loosening.

Post: #18

cant see it going down as much as i would like that to happen. its a national treasure

Post: #19

I feel bad for the pitchbook makers this Christmas season, no bonuses for them.

Post: #20

Made 30% on long VXX calls due to the 7% fall. The talking heads were saying there is similarities to 2008. Burn baby burn

Post: #21

I've been following this for months when ZH alluded to DB derivative exposure. It now looks like a point of inevitability. There is no doubt of contagion and irrespective of DB, there had been talk about weakness in Italian banks, this is likely to expose the true state of play.

My question is; What's the best way to take advantage of this? In Theory the Euro should fall against all major currencies and gold should increase, right?

I'm particularly bullish on GBP vs EUR as it's already traded down due to 'concerns' about Brexit.

From my understanding, the best thing would be to open a FX account but I'm not too sure how that all works in terms of margin etc. I have a stockbroker as well, could I just ask them to short the Euro?

Or is just buying Gold a good bet?

Appreciate any feedback.

Post: #22

(09-28-2016 12:43 PM)The Black Knight Wrote:  ...
The only option left is let the euro collapse, wipe the debts, and start over. That or just enjoy a slow decline into the ditch.

I would be watching BitCoin and other digital currencies closely as people at the mainstream level lose faith in the system.

Between the baby boomers voting to do anything to protect their pensions and the millennials/invaders who will be voting for welfare-at-any-cost into perpetuity, no wage, no property and no liberty is safe from democracy.

There will be no steady decline. The guts will soon be ripped out of the middle class and the nation state will become the prison state long before the ivory towers are allowed to fall. Unless of course we cowboy up and start hanging traitors.

Post: #23

Coincidentally, our favorite globalist shorted Deutsche Bank during Brexit.

Post: #24

(09-30-2016 02:51 AM)Enigma Wrote:  Coincidentally, our favorite globalist shorted Deutsche Bank during Brexit.

Soros? He does have a mind for currencies.

Edit
It has got to the point where every time George Soros' name comes up, I just think "hurry up and die"

Post: #25

(09-30-2016 12:36 AM)Suban Shelvey Wrote:  I've been following this for months when ZH alluded to DB derivative exposure. It now looks like a point of inevitability. There is no doubt of contagion and irrespective of DB, there had been talk about weakness in Italian banks, this is likely to expose the true state of play.

My question is; What's the best way to take advantage of this? In Theory the Euro should fall against all major currencies and gold should increase, right?

I'm particularly bullish on GBP vs EUR as it's already traded down due to 'concerns' about Brexit.

From my understanding, the best thing would be to open a FX account but I'm not too sure how that all works in terms of margin etc. I have a stockbroker as well, could I just ask them to short the Euro?

Or is just buying Gold a good bet?

Appreciate any feedback.

I've been thinking about this as well, as I have some savings in Euros. The last great recession seems like a good example to examine, as it was also triggered by major bank failures. I've been digging through xe.com and their historical charts, here is how the Euro fared against other major currencies during September/October 2008 (approximately):

EUR/USD: depreciated from 1.45 to 1.30;
EUR/GBP: no major change. In fact, the Euro even appreciated from 0.8 to 0.95 before the end of the year;
EUR/AUD: appreciated from 1.70 to 1.95;
EUR/CAD: no major change;
EUR/CHF: depreciated from 1.60 to 1.45;
EUR/RUB: depreciated slightly from 36 to 34;
EUR/JPY: depreciated from 160 to 125.
EUR/CNY: depreciated from 10 to 8.5.

Judging from this only, USD, CHF, CNY and JPY seem like good bets. However, there's a problem with the yen and the franc - both currencies have appreciated markedly during the last couple of years, so it's a big question how much more can they go should the Euro tank against other major currencies. And, there's also the question of how much could a potential Eurozone recession affect non-EU countries.