Post: #226

It's interesting that Greece has an unemployment rate of 50% and yet there's little talk in all this mess of how to realistically fix this.

Post: #227

If China/Russia step in and help bail out Greece independently of Europe, and Greece falls out of the US/EU field of influence, Euro leaders will feel pretty silly about not just bailing out their EU partner.

Post: #228

(07-05-2015 11:35 PM)CactusCat589 Wrote:  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econo...-deal.html

So Greece has defaulted on its IMF obligations. The last time this has happened, it was Zimbabwe, all the way back in 2001. Think about that for a second... Zimbabwe. That should terrify the average Greek.

On the 20th, they have to come up with something as that's when their ECB payments are due.

http://graphics.wsj.com/greece-debt-timeline/

That is really mind-boggling. There is a total of 300+ loan repayments they need to make from now to 2050. How can such a little country be so irresponsible and socialist?

The ECB should consider future debt repayment, but only in exchange for some show of good faith. Cuts to pensions, social security. This current patch of bailouts were all approved with the understanding that the Greeks would work on improving their fiscal position. But they haven't done a thing to rectify things, for years, and haven't shown even the slightest hint of remorse under these Syrizas guys.

TLDR: Greece is gonna git rekt.

Maybe we'll soon see 50 Trillion drachma banknotes with that cool Heavy Metal font?

Post: #229

(07-06-2015 06:34 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  It's interesting that Greece has an unemployment rate of 50% and yet there's little talk in all this mess of how to realistically fix this.

Oh, that is just the youth unemployment... The old generation sold the young before they were even born, typical western move btw.

Post: #230

Imagine a future where Greece leaves the EU, Euro, and falls into Russia's sphere of influence. Greece borders many slavic nations as it is. Greece agrees to allow a Russian naval base in the Mediterranean.

Wouldn't Western leaders feel foolish allowing such a thing to happen? Russia has been looking for Mediterranean access for centuries, and was never able to get it, then the EU basically gifts them the perfect location.

Post: #231

(07-06-2015 06:34 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  It's interesting that Greece has an unemployment rate of 50% and yet there's little talk in all this mess of how to realistically fix this.

The elephant in this thread is that Greece has spent half the last century in economic turmoil. Greece is the hot girl complaining about bad boys mistreating her; since that doesn't follow the "poe-wittle-me" Millennial victim narrative, it goes unmentioned in this thread.

Anyone lending money to a Greek is wasting their money. Same is true for investing.

Also, while Greece is whining, squeaking and protesting, Texas has been making a move to begin planting and producing olives in mass to compete with Greece on the global stage. That is what people with work ethics and a strong pro-work and capitalistic culture do.

Let Greece eat their socialism.

Post: #232

This sounds about right:

http://journal-neo.org/2015/07/03/what-s...reek-mess/



http://rinf.com/alt-news/editorials/gree...g-roberts/

Quote:Greece’s creditors, the EU and the European Central Bank have agendas unrelated to Greece’s ability to pay. The creditors are determined to establish the principle that they can over-lend to a country and force the country to pay by selling public assets and cutting pensions and social services of citizens. The creditor banks then profit by financing the privatization of public assets to favored customers. The agenda of the EU and the central bank is to terminate the fiscal independence of EU member states by turning tax and budget policy over to the EU itself.
In other words, the Greek “sovereign debt crisis” is being used to create a precedent that will apply to every EU member government. The member states will cease to exist as sovereign states. Sovereignty will rest in the EU. The measures that Germany and France are supporting will in the end terminate their own sovereignty, very little of which actually remains as they do not have their own currency and their foreign policy is subservient to Washington.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts is probably right on that. (Formerly: Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal.)

Also I am re-evaluating the BRICS / Russia / China option - the chances for this are zero - did not know this little tidbit:

Quote:Indeed, when Greek Prime Minister Tsipras was in St. Petersburg in mid-June to meet with Russian President Putin, Putin extended a very generous offer of prepayment of $5 billion towards the Greek participation in the Turkish Stream Gazprom pipeline.

That would have given Greece breathing room to service debt repayments to the IMF. Brussels and Washington of course were not at all happy with that. Putin then offered Greece membership in the new BRICS development bank which would allow Greece to borrow to get out of the worst of the crisis without more savage austerity. That of course would bring Greece closer to Russia and also to China, something Washington and Brussels oppose with all their might. But rather than accept, Greece and Varoufakis walked away from a solution that would have avoided catastrophe as it is now unfolding.

First appeared: http://journal-neo.org/2015/07/03/what-s...reek-mess/

So he refused money from Russia already for a project that would be even more profitable for Greece in the future anyway.

Well - it's settled as far as I am concerned. 99,99% chance that Greece will ultimately stay in the EU and Euro-zone. It's even possible that the people first will be impoverished so much, that they cannot buy food anymore. They may even attempt to print some Drachma, which will end in a greater disaster anyway.

The new deal might simply entail ceding the finance ministry to the EU commission. Then the EU will take responsibility for the debt, the interest will come down to 0,5% and the payments will be stretched to 100 years. It was a bunch of numbers on a computer anyway.

Then all the other countries know that they can solve their debt crisis simply by giving away their financial independence (also selling assets and privatizing the hell out of anything).

By the way - the unemployment rate is 30% already. Ah well - they should just surrender their finance ministry to the EU and then be free. Their politicians are not going to lead them to a new utopia.

Post: #233

^ What you fail to consider is that Golden Dawn would accept a deal with Russia. When the people start starving the revolts will begin. I doubt Greece stays in the EU, it will be removed by force if necessary.

Post: #234

Zimbabwe pretty much gave up their own currency as a hopeless case and effectively changed to the US$ a few years back. The US$ is the default currency of the country, though South African Rands are also sometimes accepted for payment. I believe you can withdraw and deposit in US$'s in their local banks. The US is definitely not cooperating (they have sanctions in place against anyone with any power in Zimbabwe), so...

...why can't Greece just default on their Euro loans and start using another stable currency, like the US$, as its means of exchange for as long as it takes to stabilise the situation. 5-10 years say. Then bring back the Drachma or newly named local currency?

Post: #235

(07-06-2015 11:26 AM)Bad Hussar Wrote:  ...why can't Greece just default on their Euro loans and start using another stable currency, like the US$, as its means of exchange for as long as it takes to stabilise the situation. 5-10 years say. Then bring back the Drachma or newly named local currency?

The problem with this is they need a means of getting USD. As a country you can't say, "today we will only accept dollars as a form of payment!"

If you have no means to get those dollars (via exports) then you have to do other means like T-bills and investments.

If they did this, I believe there would be some sort of "shock" as the local market there would have to self adjust to how much a good or service is actually worth. Something like this happened in the 70s when the US switched off of the gold standard. There was a sharp demand for dollars but not enough in circulation.

Though my mental mapping of such an event could be way off. Someone better versed in the subject can chime in.

Post: #236

Anyone watch the news coverage? This drives me nuts, a mostly younger crowd was dancing around and praising the NO vote - rejoicing that they were standing up to the EU but mostly Germany. Don't they know they'll be sucking dick for a sandwich in a few months? Or do they just believe the government will take care of them forever?

Post: #237

(07-06-2015 12:54 PM)Captainstabbin Wrote:  Anyone watch the news coverage? This drives me nuts, a mostly younger crowd was dancing around and praising the NO vote - rejoicing that they were standing up to the EU but mostly Germany. Don't they know they'll be sucking dick for a sandwich in a few months? Or do they just believe the government will take care of them forever?

I think it's more a national pride (no, not that kind of "pride") thing. But you are likely right. The consequences of this "No" vote, unless it is overturned through some sort of non-democratic means, will certainly leave those celebrating, personally, worse off.

Personally I have mixed feelings. I'm only too happy to see the creditors take a bath. The more they lose the better as far as I'm concerned. They're the vultures who loaned Greece the money in the first place. Full default and a change to another currency as far as I'm concerned. But I'm also realistic enough to know that little Greece is in no position at all to "stick it to the man" The "man" will make sure they experience all manner of pain if they do not make good on their loans. Blowjobs for sandwiches will seem like a good deal if Greece's creditors really go after them.

Post: #238

They're in trouble either way. Without a haircut, even if they implement all the austerity measures, there debt to GDP is estimated to still be 118% by 2030. That IMF paper that came out a few days ago drew a pretty bleak picture.

If they get a haircut on their debt, the other PIIGS will be knocking at that door soon too.

There's no doubt that Greece needs drastic reform. Whether or not that can be accomplished while maintaining the Euro as their currency is questionable.

All I know is if the Drachma makes a comeback, I'll be planning some cheap vacations!

Post: #239

(07-06-2015 12:54 PM)Captainstabbin Wrote:  Anyone watch the news coverage? This drives me nuts, a mostly younger crowd was dancing around and praising the NO vote - rejoicing that they were standing up to the EU but mostly Germany. Don't they know they'll be sucking dick for a sandwich in a few months? Or do they just believe the government will take care of them forever?

Most young people don't know much. If it isn't on social media and it isn't about their feelings, then why should they care?

Saw on CNBC an interview with a businessman (I think multinational company) and he said his employees are asking him to hold onto their paychecks. They trust their boss more than the banks. Gotta be pretty bad to not want your paycheck (not that I didn't think it was bad).

Post: #240

Post: #241

(07-06-2015 12:54 PM)Captainstabbin Wrote:  Anyone watch the news coverage? This drives me nuts, a mostly younger crowd was dancing around and praising the NO vote - rejoicing that they were standing up to the EU but mostly Germany. Don't they know they'll be sucking dick for a sandwich in a few months? Or do they just believe the government will take care of them forever?

Do you remember OWS? Even American Millennials don't have a clue how their entire standard of living exists - cheap borrowing. I remember vividly what happened to Mexico during its currency crisis and how so many people became poor overnight and the absolute poverty they experienced. Just wait until foreigners begin to be reluctant to lend to the United States (and it will happen eventually).

The same American Millennials will wonder what happened to their years of wasting time, only working one job (and complaining about it), and entertaining themselves with the latest of [whatever the popular show is]. You ask any of these Millennials now about bond rates, or what happens when foreigners start selling US bonds, or demanding gold instead, and they have no clue what that would mean because they've lived so long in an unsustainable system.

Post: #242

At $60 a day withdrawals, family units will soon grind to a halt. Then shit will hit the fan.

Post: #243

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Post: #244

(07-06-2015 05:57 PM)Dan Woolf Wrote:  

(07-06-2015 03:12 PM)Ingocnito Wrote:  At $60 a day withdrawals, family units will soon grind to a halt. Then shit will hit the fan.

And what about the people who NEED medication, but they can't get them? Say, someone with diabetes? They are basically walking dead at this point.

Same thing that happens all over the world - people die of natural causes. Not everyone can afford even basic healthcare and Greece is now a 3rd world country. They aren't going to get the best of anything for a very long time.

I'd rather my charity go to some unheard of African tribe than Greeks. And that's what we're talking about, charity...money down the drain. In all of this, has Greece ever said please? Thank you? No, they've just vilified anyone who refuses to keep the gravy train rolling with no questions asked.

Or, they own 155 F-16s, sell some of them. The annual cost of diabetes in Greece can't be more than $10m...it's under $24m in the US.

Post: #245

So when will things be cheap enough that I can go and buy a waterfront property?

I'm sure, in these desperate times, Greek women will want to party their problems away.

Where is Greek Kamaki in all of this?

What happened to Baltic power?

Post: #246

^^^ Balkan Power

Post: #247

(07-06-2015 01:23 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  Saw on CNBC an interview with a businessman (I think multinational company) and he said his employees are asking him to hold onto their paychecks. They trust their boss more than the banks. Gotta be pretty bad to not want your paycheck (not that I didn't think it was bad).

The smarter move would be to get hold of that paycheck and spend it as fast as you can on a stockpile of small consumer goods that can be easily compartmentalised and bartered for value: cigarettes, cheap alcohol, sanitary pads, condoms, shaving razors, etc.

Those who do -- and those who started doing so ahead of this default -- are going to wind up a shitload better off. Any individual who wants to hold onto a Euro anywhere on the Greek peninsula with the possibility of the drachma coming back is making themselves a financial standing target.

Post: #248

(07-06-2015 10:38 PM)RexImperator Wrote:  ^^^ Balkan Power

lol

Somebody call Kamaki on the hotline his country needs him!

And get me Little Dark....

Post: #249

If you're going to buy property would you be able to get ahold of materials for any repairs or improvements? How about labour?

People talk of cheap holidays but the basics such as food, water and medicine are going to be harder to buy.

Post: #250

(07-07-2015 05:03 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  If you're going to buy property would you be able to get ahold of materials for any repairs or improvements? How about labour?

People talk of cheap holidays but the basics such as food, water and medicine are going to be harder to buy.

Not for foreigners, and not for those Greeks who are paid by said foreigners in currencies other than the Euro. Greeks will be falling over themselves to get their hands on cash that the Greek government can't monitor or hold, since nobody sane will be offering credit in or out of the country. Albanian, Macedonian, and Bulgarian villages just across the Greek border are going to turn into absolute boom towns. Smugglers and the black market in general are going to do huge business in Greece in the next two years or so, if they aren't raking in the coin already. They'll make more money getting legal drugs across the borders than illegal.