Post: #301

Akula, you saved me typing! 100% agree with ^^ .

I would just like to add though that the only viable long term solution is for Greece to leave the Eurozone and the EU. Issue drachmas to refloat the countries finances and stimulate the economy and as the debts to the Troika bailout are impossible to ever pay back, default and refuse to pay these. Greece will need its 160 F16s . I hope you put some cash aside to keep them airworthy!

Post: #302

I don't understand why they would have to leave the EU even if they drop the Euro.

Post: #303

(07-09-2015 08:07 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  I don't understand why they would have to leave the EU even if they drop the Euro.

You mean if they default on their debt but want to remain part of what is, in name at least, an economic arrangement for favourable trade terms with those who they owed money to in the first place?

Post: #304

The institutions of the EU along with the Euro are the root cause of Greeces problems. That is why they have to leave both.

Even the UK guardian is now advocating Euro Grexit as being the only viable solution to the Greek crisis.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree...are_btn_tw

The trouble is, I don't think Tsipras has the guts to do that. The real reason I think Varoufakis was "asked" to resign was because being an economics professor he understood that the only way to get Greece out of the hole is to regain control of the money supply, I. E . Grexit the Euro and revive the Drachma.

Let's look at one country that has left the EU: Greenland are booming, the people are 3x better off than they were under the EU. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/alexsi...to-the-eu/


Even within the EU Poland has done well by retaining its own currency but with a floating exchange rate, as does the UK. http://www.economonitor.com/dolanecon/20...o-divorce/

Post: #305

(07-09-2015 08:07 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  I don't understand why they would have to leave the EU even if they drop the Euro.

Why would they continue to take orders from the EU when they aren't getting anything in exchange?

Post: #306

(07-09-2015 09:12 AM)Guitarman Wrote:  Let's look at one country that has left the EU: Greenland are booming, the people are 3x better off than they were under the EU. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/alexsi...to-the-eu/


Even within the EU Poland has done well by retaining its own currency but with a floating exchange rate, as does the UK. http://www.economonitor.com/dolanecon/20...o-divorce/

Iceland and Greenland have not adopted Euro, as such it was easier for them to take control. Also their debt was different from Greek or Portuguese. I believe (at least Iceland's debt) was "bank debt", not state debt. As such, the people just let the banks burn.

Poland is very self aware of their own Zloty and the independence that it gives them. They will not go to Euro during my lifetime. (and i hope to live at least 70 years more).

Post: #307

(07-09-2015 06:29 AM)Akula Wrote:  Now that the chickens are coming home to roost they have nobody to blame but themselves.

What is wrong with roasted chicken?

Post: #308

(07-09-2015 10:16 AM)Wreckingball Wrote:  Also their debt was different from Greek or Portuguese. I believe it was "bank debt", not state debt. As such, the people just let the banks burn.

This common misconception is basically the root of the entire mess. A large share of Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Italy (and USA)'s state debt came from their governments "willingly" (read: forced through by corrupt politicians under the influence of powerful banking lobbies) taking on the private banks' debts because those banks were deemed "too big to be allowed to fail" and turning them into state debts.

For example, look at Spain's budget deficit (below the line) and surplus (above the line) in the last 20 years:



When the crisis began, those countries were all in the same situation as Iceland, only they had more corrupt politicians (and were of course pushed further down the path of destruction by their EU overlords, which Iceland does not have).

Post: #309

(07-07-2015 06:58 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Is the real estate tanking in Athens? I can't ask my family as the will get upset.

I would though love an apartment on a higher floor near Glyfada with a view.

It definitely hasn't tanked. There are many buildings for lease and the rents have come down significantly, but if you are looking to buy like I am now, there aren't as many motivated sellers as one would expect. I don't have to explain this to you el mechanico, but many still have assets and cash squirrelled away.....Greek style.

Post: #310

Things are very calm in Greece. Everybody has gotten used to going to the ATM every day to withdraw their 60 euro or 50 if the ATM doesn't have any 20's. Some of the people who have pensions were able to get 120 euro plus the 60 from the ATM. Still others that had not set up direct deposit received the entire amount by postman in cash. The restaurants, coffee shops and bars are packed every afternoon and night. I am not saying everyone is ok, but I see very little suffering so far.

Post: #311

(07-06-2015 07:57 AM)Sonsowey Wrote:  Imagine a future where Greece leaves the EU, Euro, and falls into Russia's sphere of influence. Greece borders many slavic nations as it is. Greece agrees to allow a Russian naval base in the Mediterranean.

Wouldn't Western leaders feel foolish allowing such a thing to happen? Russia has been looking for Mediterranean access for centuries, and was never able to get it, then the EU basically gifts them the perfect location.

That's why why I personally don't think Greece is going to leave or be kicked out. The geopolitical consequences will trump every other issue.

Post: #312

If Greece fails on Sunday how do you expect those shops and coffee bars to remain open when trade starts to struggle?

Post: #313

And Iceland has recently withdrawn its application to join the EU. Citing " no advantage". The writing is on the wall for the Euro and the EU.

Post: #314

(07-09-2015 10:23 AM)Kamaki4 Wrote:  

(07-07-2015 06:58 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  Is the real estate tanking in Athens? I can't ask my family as the will get upset.

I would though love an apartment on a higher floor near Glyfada with a view.

It definitely hasn't tanked. There are many buildings for lease and the rents have come down significantly, but if you are looking to buy like I am now, there aren't as many motivated sellers as one would expect. I don't have to explain this to you el mechanico, but many still have assets and cash squirrelled away.....Greek style.

Thanks for sharing what you have. The last part about assets and squirrels.

This isn't meant as an accusation or anything. Just to be educated better on the matter.

Do Greeks just not pay taxes? Is it as bad as the news says it is? Very hard for a country to pay debt when it can't collect.

Post: #315

(07-08-2015 01:45 AM)Hotwheels Wrote:  

(07-07-2015 07:19 PM)el mechanico Wrote:  What real time site do they use there like zillow?

I'm with Mech on this.

How does one buy some land over there?

While it's cheap as fuck obviously.

In all honesty we have a lot of Greeks where I live and many have ties back to Greece and speak the language among themselves and their local Greek orthodox church puts on an annual Greek food festival fund raiser... I would just attend their festivals or even attend services and casually ask who owns land they would like to cash out - my tailor for instance owns a small olive farm there and goes over every late summer early fall for an entire month to harvest olives and press them into his own olive oil he trades with neighbors and puts by to bring back to the USA for cooking etc. So a lot of American Greeks may be looking to sell properties they have held their for a while.

Post: #316

(07-09-2015 10:39 AM)Kamaki4 Wrote:  Things are very calm in Greece. Everybody has gotten used to going to the ATM every day to withdraw their 60 euro or 50 if the ATM doesn't have any 20's. Some of the people who have pensions were able to get 120 euro plus the 60 from the ATM. Still others that had not set up direct deposit received the entire amount by postman in cash. The restaurants, coffee shops and bars are packed every afternoon and night. I am not saying everyone is ok, but I see very little suffering so far.

Post: #317

Can Germany maintain it's export economy without the Euro? My understanding was that the Euro artificially suppressed the costs in Germany, which would otherwise be expensive if the DM were still being used.

Post: #318

(07-09-2015 11:16 AM)Menace Wrote:  Can Germany maintain it's export economy without the Euro? My understanding was that the Euro artificially suppressed the costs in Germany, which would otherwise be expensive if the DM were still being used.

Sure they can, they can devalue the Deutschmark as much as they want to make exports cheaper.

Post: #319

(07-09-2015 11:00 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  If Greece fails on Sunday how do you expect those shops and coffee bars to remain open when trade starts to struggle?

The last two days me and my friends had to go to several coffee shops in the afternoon to find a table to sit. Today I went to the mobile shop ΓΕΡΜΑΝΟΣ, which ironically translates to 'German' in Greek and the shop was full of customers. At night the bars are packed, but maybe you are here and have better on the ground intel than I do. Just scanned the mainstream european and anglosphere news sites and as usual they are looking to sell more advertising or push their anti socialist agenda. They are only showing photos of people lining up at ATM's and don't want to show anything else because the viewership and readership will call them out on their poor reporting.

Post: #320

The UK is full of German cars are we are not in the Eurozone, so no Germany does not need the a Euro either.

Post: #321

(07-09-2015 11:50 AM)Kamaki4 Wrote:  

(07-09-2015 11:00 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  If Greece fails on Sunday how do you expect those shops and coffee bars to remain open when trade starts to struggle?

The last two days me and my friends had to go to several coffee shops in the afternoon to find a table to sit. Today I went to the mobile shop ΓΕΡΜΑΝΟΣ, which ironically translates to 'German' in Greek and the shop was full of customers. At night the bars are packed, but maybe you are here and have better on the ground intel than I do. Just scanned the mainstream european and anglosphere news sites and as usual they are looking to sell more advertising or push their anti socialist agenda. They are only showing photos of people lining up at ATM's and don't want to show anything else because the viewership and readership will call them out on their poor reporting.

Is probably also a media lie that there is capital control and people can only take 50 euro per day.

I'm not saying there are rich people in Greece who have made themselves rich through corruption and fraud, and can go out every day and eat in fancy restaurants and go fancy clubs in this climate in Greece. The point is that the money under the mattress is going to run out. And then what?

A lot of Greeks already ran out of money. According to statistics more than half of the Greek population lives in poverty. Sooner than later the money under the mattress will run out and reality will strike you but it will be too late for you and will line up for some bread and water in the food cue. By the way, I think you are painting a wrong picture to RooshForum. My friend was in Greece last week and he said all restaurants and coffee's were empty.

Post: #322

So apparently Tsipras is about to cave and agree to even worse austerity measures at the Eurogroup meeting tomorrow: Athens accepts harsh austerity as bailout deal nears

Quote:The Greek government capitulated on Thursday to demands from its creditors for severe austerity measures in return for a modest debt write-off, raising hopes that a rescue deal could be signed at an emergency meeting of EU leaders on Sunday.

Live Greek crisis: Government agrees reform measures - live updates
European council president Donald Tusk has backed calls for Greece’s debt sustainability to be tackled as part of a third bailout
Read more
Athens is understood to have put forward a package of reforms and public spending cuts worth €13bn (£9.3bn) to secure a third bailout from creditors that could raise $50bn and allow it to stay inside the currency union.

A cabinet meeting signed off the reform package after ministers agreed that the dire state of the economy and the debilitating closure of the country’s banks meant it had no option but to agree to almost all the creditors terms.

Parliament is expected to endorse the package after a frantic few days of negotiation that followed a landmark referendum last Sunday in which Greek voters backed the radical leftist Syriza government’s call for debt relief.

Syriza, which is in coalition with the rightwing populist Independent party, is expected to meet huge opposition from within its own ranks and from trade unions and youth groups that viewed the referendum as a vote against any austerity.

Panagiotis Lafazanis, the energy minister and influential hard-leftist, who on Wednesday welcomed a deal for a new €2bn gas pipeline from Russia, has ruled out a new tough austerity package.

Lafazanis represents around 70 Syriza MPs who have previously taken a hard line against further austerity measures and could yet wreck any top-level agreement.

Emphasising the likelihood of further strife in Greece next week even should a deal be concluded, Brussels officials talked privately of plans to fly in humanitarian aid such as food parcels and medicines to major cities.

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The urgency of Greek efforts to prevent an exit from the euro came after Brussels set a midnight Thursday deadline for Greece to produce a package of measures in line with previous demands.

With the support of officials from the French finance ministry, Greek negotiators are believed to have accepted the need for VAT rises and rules blocking early retirement as the price of a deal.

Several EU leaders said the troika of creditors – the European commission, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank - must also make concessions to secure Greece’s future inside the eurozone.

Donald Tusk, who chairs the EU summits, said European officials would make an effort to address Greece’s key request for a debt write-off.

“The realistic proposal from Greece will have to be matched by an equally realistic proposal on debt sustainability from the creditors. Only then will we have a win-win situation,” Tusk said.

Tusk, a former prime minister of Poland, aligned himself with France and Italy in seeking a way through the political maze that has defeated all previous efforts to find a breakthrough.

Sources close to Greece’s chief negotiator and finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, said he had finalised and submitted a plan of reforms for a third bailout to give creditors time to review it ahead of a summit of EU members on Sunday.

On Thursday, the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble said the possibility of some kind of debt relief would be discussed over coming days, although he cautioned it may not provide much help.

“The room for manoeuvre through debt reprofiling or restructuring is very small,” he said.

Greece has long argued its debt is too high to be paid back and that the country requires some form of debt relief. The IMF agrees, but key European states such as Germany have resisted the idea.

Making Greece’s debt more sustainable would likely involve lowering the interest rates and extending the repayment dates on its bailout loans. Germany and many other European countries rule out an outright debt cut, arguing it would be illegal under European treaties.

The developments on Thursday boosted market confidence that a compromise will be found. The Stoxx 50 index of top European shares was up 2.4% in late afternoon trading.


Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras met with finance ministry officials ahead of the cabinet meeting on Thursday afternoon which finalised his country’s plan, a day after his government requested a new three-year aid programme from Europe’s bailout fund and promised to immediately enact reforms.

The last-minute negotiations come as Greece’s financial system teeters on the brink of collapse. It has imposed restrictions on banking transactions since 29 June, limiting cash withdrawals to €60 per day to staunch a bank run. Banks and the stock market have been shut for just as long.

The closures, which have been extended until Monday, have led to daily lines at cash machines and have hammered businesses. Payments abroad have been banned without special permission.

Greece’s financial institutions have been kept afloat so far by emergency liquidity assistance from the ECB. But the central bank has not increased the amount in days, giving the lenders a stranglehold despite capital controls.

German ECB governing council member Jens Weidmann argued Greek banks should not get more emergency credit from the central bank unless a bailout deal is struck.
He said it was up to eurozone governments and Greek leaders themselves to rescue Greece.

The central bank “has no mandate to safeguard the solvency of banks and governments,” he said in a speech.

The ECB capped emergency credit to Greek banks amid doubt over whether the country will win further rescue loans from other countries. The banks closed and limited cash withdrawals because they had no other way to replace deposits.

Weidmann said he welcomed the fact that central bank credit “is no longer being used to finance capital flight caused by the Greek government”.

But on closer inspection, even that may not be enough for Merkel: Zero Hedge

Quote:Moments ago MarketNews reported that during today's "marathon governmental meeting" in which Greek PM Alexis Tsipras sat down with his party to hammer out and complete the "compromise" Greek proposal to be sent to the Troika before midnight, the prime minister told his ministers that he was "ready for compromises," suggesting he was willing to clash with the ultra-left part his party, Syriza.

So far so good, and perhaps indeed suggestive of a big step down. The problem emerges upon a closer read of the proposal, which is clearly not nearly "capitulatory" enough.

Recall that earlier today BofA' Chief European Economist Gilles Moec, accurately, said that only a "complete capitulation" by Tsipras would get Germany to agree to the Greek proposal.

However, as presented by MNI, the proposal is anything but: according to the draft

The 30% discount in VAT for most islands is maintained but it excludes the so called "big" islands which get the biggest percentage of tourist reservations.
The draft keeps the VAT for hotels to 13% but raises the Value Added Tax for the food industry to 23% which was a creditors' demand.
The governmental commitment to freeze early retirements remains.
The biggest surprise is once again in the biggest hurdle: pensions. Recall that as we accurately predicted two weeks ago, it was the government's unwillingness to directly cut pensions that led to the IMF refusing to even negotiate the Greek proposal.

As a further reminder, this is what IMF's chief economist Olivier Blanchard said almost a month ago on the topic:

Why insist on pensions? Pensions and wages account for about 75% of primary spending; the other 25% have already been cut to the bone. Pension expenditures account for over 16% of GDP, and transfers from the budget to the pension system are close to 10% of GDP. We believe a reduction of pension expenditures of 1% of GDP (out of 16%) is needed, and that it can be done while protecting the poorest pensioners
Fast forward to today when MNI reports that "there are no pension cuts in the draft of the proposal."

And if recent experience is indicative, this likely means that the Troika will once again refuse to move on with the draft.

Tsirpas is said to make a roundabout compromise by boosting the pensioners' contribution to the health sector which is "raised from 4% to 6% which could be regarded as an indirect way of reducing pensions." Alas, it was the creditors' very explicit demand that pensions see direct cuts. And this is missing from the Greek proposal.

In an attempt to mollify Merkel, the draft goes on to mention that the collective bargaining agreement would be discussed within a year, compared with the government's pre-election announcements that the law would be passed imminently, and it also puts higher taxes to the shipping industry, higher incomers and gambling and highlights the need for a debt relief.

But the key hurdle remains: Germany no longer trusts Greek promises of a boost to revenues, i.e., speedier or more aggressive tax collections, and instead demands spending be slashed which by definition means that pensions have to see substantial and haircuts.

So far this is absent from the Greek proposal.

There is also the possibility that this is merely an MNI trial balloon to gauge market sentiment at what is currently contained in the draft, and judging by the market swoon in the past few minutes, it would indeed be seen as insufficient.

Which means that if Tsipras is serious and indeed hopes to reach a compromise, he will have to propose even more draconian austerity measures and spending cuts - recall that Germany made it very clear that any existing proposal would be far harsher than what was on the table when Tsipras called the referendum - in the next few hours before the midnight deadline which is fast approaching.

The biggest problem for Greece, it goes without saying, is that at this point Greece simply can not afford another turn of the proposal: by the time the Troika comes back with its alternative, which Greece then has to debate and respond to, it will be Sunday or even Monday. And by then both the local banking system, as well as Greece itself, will have crossed what Europe swears is the final, final deadline.

Unless, of course, this was Tsipras' intention all along.

Post: #323

(07-09-2015 11:50 AM)Kamaki4 Wrote:  

(07-09-2015 11:00 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  If Greece fails on Sunday how do you expect those shops and coffee bars to remain open when trade starts to struggle?

The last two days me and my friends had to go to several coffee shops in the afternoon to find a table to sit. Today I went to the mobile shop ΓΕΡΜΑΝΟΣ, which ironically translates to 'German' in Greek and the shop was full of customers. At night the bars are packed, but maybe you are here and have better on the ground intel than I do. Just scanned the mainstream european and anglosphere news sites and as usual they are looking to sell more advertising or push their anti socialist agenda. They are only showing photos of people lining up at ATM's and don't want to show anything else because the viewership and readership will call them out on their poor reporting.

I don't follow propaganda as much as you would like to believe. I'm allergic to it.

But what I do understand is economics. You can have all the money in the world but if Greece is booted out of the Euro and forced to take up its former currency you are looking at a very serious issue with trade.

Your olive farming industry as an example. The bottles for the oil come from a foreign exporter and it is already highlighted that cash flow problems are having an effect on supply to Greek farmers.

May be Greeks live in Disney World afterall.

Post: #324

The fact Tsipras will goes against his own referendum shows that he can only hold onto power with money. He does not actually have a loyal group of followers like Golden Dawn does. The referendum was supposed to be a bluff to get Germany to cave in under more favorable conditions, but it accomplished nothing and now Tsipras looks like a huge hypocrite and traitor. People will be gunning for him now.

Greece will manage to kick the can down the road for a bit longer but obviously the government will still be just as corrupt. They will run out of money by next year and then Tsipras will be facing an enormous backlash. This is like a bubbling pot whose lid is being held down and making the explosion that much bigger. Tsipras will probably flee the country at some point to avoid retribution.

Post: #325

(07-09-2015 05:28 PM)Samseau Wrote:  The fact Tsipras will goes against his own referendum shows that he can only hold onto power with money. He does not actually have a loyal group of followers like Golden Dawn does. The referendum was supposed to be a bluff to get Germany to cave in under more favorable conditions, but it accomplished nothing and now Tsipras looks like a huge hypocrite and traitor. People will be gunning for him now.

Greece will manage to kick the can down the road for a bit longer but obviously the government will still be just as corrupt. They will run out of money by next year and then Tsipras will be facing an enormous backlash. This is like a bubbling pot whose lid is being held down and making the explosion that much bigger. Tsipras will probably flee the country at some point to avoid retribution.

On top of which, it makes him look like a complete idiot. He said no to the troika and went to the Greek people telling them that a No vote would give Greece a strengthened bargaining position against the Eurogroup. Now he's forced to offer a proposal which is essentially what he said No to earlier - and that's after a default on the IMF loan, the institution of capital controls, and the virtual collapse of the Greek banking industry.

What the hell was the point of the past two weeks then, Greeks will wonder?

However, given that this new proposal is essentially a restatement of what was offered by the Troika on June 26, and given that Merkel has already stated that any new post-referendum deal has to be tougher because of the economic downturn of the last two weeks, it's just as likely that the Germans will say No and that'll be that.

In any case, the Greek parliament will vote on the proposal tomorrow - and there's every chance it won't even pass through there.

Zero Hedge - with link to the leaked text of the proposal

Quote:There is nothing incrementally new or different to what we revealed earlier in the leaked Greek proposal (i.e., no actionable pension cuts), and as Bloomberg makes it all too clear in flashing red headlines:

GREEK GOVT PROPOSAL SIMILAR TO EU COMMISSION'S JUNE 26 PROPOSAL

... or the one which 61% of the Greek people said no to. What's worse, the proposal will be promptly deemed to be insufficient because as Merkel made quite clear, the old proposal is no longer valid due to the collapse in the Greek economy in the past 10 days and will have be far harsher to offset the slowdown in the economy.

The broad strokes: a 3 year, €53.5 billion bailout program seeking funds from the ESM, to finally put the IMF off to the side.

The program is heavy on revenue promises and lite on actual spending cuts. The changes to the VAT system are as noted previously, keeping the VAT on hotels at 13% but raising it to 23% for restaurants; Greece also promises to eliminate discounts on islands, starting with the islands with higher incomes and which are the most popular tourist destinations.

Howere it is the pension side where the issues remain, and it is here that once again there is little actual direct reductions. Among the promises, most are the generic fluff previosuly agreed on:

create strong disincentives to early retirement, incur penatlies for early withdrawals, make all supplementary pension funds financed by own contributions; and so on.

The good news for the Troika is that Greece will seek to "gradually phase out the solidarity grant (EKAS) for all pensioners by end-December 2019" - who will be impacted and when: "the top 20% of beneficiaries in March 2016." In other words another 9 months of non real aciton. The bad news for the Troika is that Greece will also "freeze monthly guaranteed contributory pension limits in nominal terms until 2021."

More in the full proposal, but the truth is that while making some concessions, the Greek proposal may still be insufficient for Merkel, and certainly won't be sufficient for the IMF due to the lack of real pension cuts.

Worse, Syriza will have to vote on this proposal tomorrow and explain to the people why nearly two thirds of them just voted No to a deal which the government itself is now hoping will pass.

But worst of all, nowhere in the draft sent to creditors is there anything requesting or even hinting about Greek debt haircut, relief or even reprofiling.

And all of this will happen as a massive Oxi demonstration takes place in front of government, so be on the lookout for a repeat appearance by the riotcam.