Post: #126

(11-06-2018 11:27 AM)ChicagoFire Wrote:  So speaking about Nate Silver, I just checked my email and saw this message from Predictit:

You all know Nate Silver, the famous prognosticator and founder of fivethirtyeight.com. Great guy. Except that he just called you “dumb”.

Okay, not exactly, he said prices on PredictIt are dumb. And it’s true there are some markets where your expectations and his are a bit out of whack.

For example, you’ve got the GOP at 58% to win Arizona's Senate race. Nate is at only 38%. You’re pricing Claire McCaskill at only 39% to keep her Missouri Senate seat. Nate is much more confident at 57%. And, the Democrats to win the House? He thinks it’s nearly a foregone conclusion at 88%. You’re hedging your bets at 72%.

So who’s right? We’ll know that later today. In the meantime, are you comfortable being called "dumb"? If not, get back on the site and vote with your money. Or maybe you want to take the advice of an expert and hedge your bets.

Either way, please spread the word about @PredictIt on Twitter and Facebook and let’s have some fun today. And may the best side win… for now. Remember, 2020 is just around the corner!

Team PredictIt

I may not be the smartest person but at least I am not dumb enough to pay Nate Silver money for his work.

Post: #127

(11-06-2018 01:37 PM)456 Wrote:  Huge turnout in my blue district in NYC (some local positions only had one D choice at all, no other party).

Poll workers said it was busier than 2016.

Almost everyone looked left-leaning... 6’4” bad posture doughy guy being led by his short girlfriend, he wore a bright pink “Kittens Academy” shirt (wat?)... wonder what side he’s for...

What I am seeing so far is a bit disheartening. I was hoping for an upset in getting rid of Menendez here in NJ. Given the large blue turnout in the NYC metro area, that looks unlikely.

The Lefties here have been acting like the Trump administration is planning to load women and minorities into boxcars to a death camp somewhere.

Post: #128

Post: #129

Supposedly Hugin actually has a shot at pulling it off. Things on the ground in New Jersey are very hot. I'm not betting on it though. I don't think Hugin stacks up quite high enough on persuasion to pull this off in this atmosphere and in his state.

John James does though. If there's an upset tonight in the Senate, this is the one that has the highest chance.

Post: #130

https://redstorm2018.wordpress.com/2018/...er-6-2018/

Early Bellwethers - because polls in Kentucky and Indiana are the earliest to close, you're going to want to focus on three House Races

Kentucky's 6th Congressional District - Republican Andy Barr against Democrat Amy McGrath. McGrath being a well funded air force veteran (and lesbian, I think?) who apparently is turning this previously solidly Republican district into a tossup. If the race is mostly neck-and-neck, that coincides with poll predictions, and Democrats are likely to take the House at a slim margin.

If McGrath looks like she is in a somewhat comfortable lead, it indicates that a modest blue wave at the minimum is likely (Democrats take back the House in decent margins).

If Barr looks like he is in a somewhat comfortable lead, it indicates that we have a decent shot at keeping the House. If he's clearly ahead, prepare to celebrate.


https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...district-6


Two other races are Indiana's 2nd Congressional District and Indiana's 9th Congressional District

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...district-2
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...district-9

These are both 'Likely Republican' which means that the Republican candidates should be leading comfortably. If the Democrats are making it close, that's bad news. If they manage to win these, it's very bad news.

Also, the Senate race between Joe Donnelly (D) and Mike Braun ® will be the first one to close. It'll be a great bellwether for whether or not the GOP has a decent shot at expanding their lead in the Senate, or if the Democrats can go for their best case scenario of 50R-50D.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018...tions.html


Some polls indicate Donnelly slight ahead, some polls indicate Braun slightly ahead. If I recall correctly, the GOP areas of Indiana usually send their results in first, so Braun should be leading by decent margins at first if he is to have a shot at winning. Six years ago, Donnelly's Republican opponent, Richard Mourdock, made a comment that was construed as him saying rape was a gift from God (he is hardcore pro-life). Donnelly beat Mourdock 50% to 44%, but Mourdock was leading by slight margins at the start of the night.

Indianapolis and Gary are the main sources of Democratic strength, so they should go for Donnelly. Donnelly is also running on a bipartisan "I can side with Trump" too, so it is possible he wins some slightly red counties when you contrast the above map with the 2016 results, when Trump beat Hillary 56.5% to 37.5%: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/indiana

Indiana is one of the ripest potential Senate pickups for the GOP, so it will be a disappointment if we fail to take it from the D's. Braun was an outsider business candidate who seemed similar to Trump, so that's why my group 'endorsed' him. It was nice to see him beat two incumbent career politician candidates for the GOP nomination, but the trouble is - he isn't as charismatic as Trump. His voice is a bit too gravelly, his personality a bit too boring, and Donnelly has amassed a warchest of $ that he used to attack Braun on when it comes to healthcare.

Trump and (former Indiana Governor) Pence have rallied multiple times for Braun though, so that can make up for it. Let's just hope Indiana doesn't fall for the "I'm a bipartisan Democrat who can work with Trump!" strategy, which worked in PA-18 back in April, and which also worked in Alabama's Senate election in December last year.

Post: #131

I really don't believe in these "bellwethers." The dynamics of one district in one state can't be applied to the entire country.

Florida continues to look good. If turnout stays this high, the endangered Rs might hold their seats, and so far, it appears that only one seat in California is in dire danger of being flipped, with maybe one more being possible. If so, and with the likely flip in Minnesota, Democrats would really need to run the table on the rest of the stuff out there.

Post: #132

@Libertas: Yeah, we absolutely cannot let Gillum win. He is a viable future Presidential contender.

Post: #133

(11-06-2018 02:10 PM)Libertas Wrote:  Supposedly Hugin actually has a shot at pulling it off. Things on the ground in New Jersey are very hot.

Hugin came up in the polls when he ran negative ads, in particular focusing on claims that Menendez was banging underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic. Given Menendez's past rep in regards to women, it isn't too far off from being believable. The only reason he is still in the Senate was because of a hung jury and the Obama Justice Department not wanting to retry. His partner in crime is now in prison.

Post: #134

Good thing about this is that since we are like 5+ hours in time from you, I just go to sleep and wake up to see the results, instead of worrying all evening!!


Seriously though, I wish everyone to not stress too much

Post: #135

This was on Drudge. Lines, chaos, and heavy crowds at the polls in the blue states of NJ, NY, and CT.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ov...25501.html


Damn... I was hoping for a little less enthusiasm. Last time I saw this is when Obama was elected to his 1st term.

Post: #136

(11-06-2018 02:38 PM)Hell_Is_Like_Newark Wrote:  

(11-06-2018 02:10 PM)Libertas Wrote:  Supposedly Hugin actually has a shot at pulling it off. Things on the ground in New Jersey are very hot.

Hugin came up in the polls when he ran negative ads, in particular focusing on claims that Menendez was banging underage prostitutes in the Dominican Republic. Given Menendez's past rep in regards to women, it isn't too far off from being believable. The only reason he is still in the Senate was because of a hung jury and the Obama Justice Department not wanting to retry. His partner in crime is now in prison.

Yep. They've been all over the place in New York. The one with the baby is the single most persuasive ad I've seen this cycle. Alas, it probably won't be enough, but we can hope.

Post: #137

(11-06-2018 02:19 PM)Libertas Wrote:  I really don't believe in these "bellwethers." The dynamics of one district in one state can't be applied to the entire country.

Florida continues to look good. If turnout stays this high, the endangered Rs might hold their seats, and so far, it appears that only one seat in California is in dire danger of being flipped, with maybe one more being possible. If so, and with the likely flip in Minnesota, Democrats would really need to run the table on the rest of the stuff out there.

Florida resident here; Hoping this is true. Did my part, at least.

Hopefully our amendment to require a supermajority to raise taxes will pass. That will be a bulwark even if a dem wins at some point. But I really don't want to experience living under Gillum. I even sacrificed my dignity and voted for Rick Scott.

Post: #138

Oh cool!

@JackPosobiec

Quote:You can write in Beto regardless of what state you're voting in today

Post: #139

I wrote in Donald Trump foy local school board just to see if they count my vote

Post: #140

(11-06-2018 02:51 PM)Hell_Is_Like_Newark Wrote:  This was on Drudge. Lines, chaos, and heavy crowds at the polls in the blue states of NJ, NY, and CT.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/ov...25501.html


Damn... I was hoping for a little less enthusiasm. Last time I saw this is when Obama was elected to his 1st term.

Good news is that they're winning those areas anyway, and turnout is similarly high in red areas.

Post: #141

had a choice whether to vote in Georgia or Colorado- figure Colorado will make a bigger difference. I think Republicans keep both houses

Post: #142

^^which race in Colorado is critical? The governorship of Georgia is so critical that Oprah is going door to door.

Post: #143

I think Rs might be up in three of Florida's four "bellwether" counties (Pinellas they're up, and I forget the names of the other two), while only slightly down in the fourth (Duval). Please correct me if I'm mistaken. Turnout is also over 60% in most of the areas Trump won while a lot lower in blue strongholds.

And recall, that Republicans usually vote heavier AFTER work.

All in all, barring some wacky independent break in favor of Democrats, I'm reasonably sure there's not much to be worried about in Florida, though with stakes this high, you obviously have to.

What's going on in other states? Where are we in Arizona, Michigan, etc.?

Update:

Beware, I don't think this takes Miami-Dade and Palm Beach into account, so this will narrow, but at this point it's probably not going to be enough. Still have to be cautious until the end though.

Post: #144

NPC's still fail to realize this is a parody account...

Post: #145

Dear god every app on my phone is taking turns buzzing me to vote. Reddit, bumble, tinder, youtube. I sure wish I could set a flag in their profile database that I have already voted.

Post: #146

Edit. California...why am I not surprised?

Post: #147

Foxnews live stream on Youtube?

Post: #148

(11-06-2018 04:39 PM)nomadbrah Wrote:  Foxnews live stream on Youtube?

Gramp's House (on YouTube) is usually a reliable source.

Try this link:

Post: #149

(11-06-2018 04:39 PM)nomadbrah Wrote:  Foxnews live stream on Youtube?

Post: #150

The Colorado governor race is also close between Democratic Polis and Republican Stapleton and the dems have a much better chance of winning it than Abrams in Georgia. But the fact that Abrams is close does surprise me.