Post: #76

(11-05-2018 03:52 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  I'm fully convinced this guy is fueled by pure contrarianism. Society is Christian? He's an occultist/Satanist. Nipples cold? Don't put on a t-shirt, just put on a leather jacket with them still exposed.

He is the kind of person who would start doing lectures on the truth of Marxism if fascism ever became dominant political thought, he defines himself as against the mainstream and it taints everything he does. He presents himself as smart enough to divine that he is ackchyually a genius.

With this in mind, it makes everything else he says a complete eye roll. Every contrarian opinion he holds is just a shtick to show the world how "clever" he is by refusing to believe the mainstream.

It's a shame people on this forum are fooled by it.

Fooled by what? I'm not Venmo'n the guy $5

However a lot of times he covers shit that I wouldn't see on CNN or any other major news outlet. If it wasn't for this video popping up in my feed I wouldn't know that the Georgia democratic party was under investigation for voter fraud.

I'm still confused as to what I'm being fooled by? Is the Georgia Democratic Party not under investigation?? If thats the case then yes I've been bamboozled

Post: #77

Those of you that have children I encourage you to bring them to the polls with you when you vote. It is a great opportunity to serve as a role model and explain to them about their civic responsibilities. It's something that my parents did with me and I do with my children.

Post: #78

(11-05-2018 04:14 PM)Cr33pin Wrote:  Fooled by what? I'm not Venmo'n the guy $5

However a lot of times he covers shit that I wouldn't see on CNN or any other major news outlet. If it wasn't for this video popping up in my feed I wouldn't know that the Georgia democratic party was under investigation for voter fraud.

I'm still confused as to what I'm being fooled by? Is the Georgia Democratic Party not under investigation?? If thats the case then yes I've been bamboozled

He's the male equivalent of a tradthot.

CNN posted an article about the Georgia Democratic Party investigation on November 4th and updated it on the 5th. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/...index.html

Same time our Styxen boy did.

I don't follow CNN either, but it's just silly to assume he's talking about things the MSM media is missing. Pretty much every major outlet covered this one. Doing a search of his channel reveals more of the same. He covers the exact same stuff the major outlets do.

He's not anymore insightful, special, have access to secret knowledge, or reporting on under reported events anymore than our favorite tradthots do.

Post: #79

Things are too quiet, I feel like some shady stuff is about to go down, the silence from the other side is defeaning.

Post: #80

(11-05-2018 05:05 PM)Steve McQueen Wrote:  Things are too quiet, I feel like some shady stuff is about to go down, the silence from the other side is defeaning.

Don't get psyched, mate. We'll win this one like we won 2016. Deus vult.

Post: #81

It's going to rain heavily across parts of the northeast tomorrow. Could help with keeping the trash home in certain endangered districts.

Post: #82

(11-05-2018 04:36 PM)Turnus Wrote:  Those of you that have children I encourage you to bring them to the polls with you when you vote. It is a great opportunity to serve as a role model and explain to them about their civic responsibilities. It's something that my parents did with me and I do with my children.

Funny, we always did that. The poll location is at some old guy's barn and everybody likes to hang around and drink cider and chat...not about politics though, sports and kids instead. It's usually dark and crisp, nice fall weather.

Post: #83

I'm not so sure, l don't think the dems would just clam up the last week unless they were sure, look at the hysteria over a judge for Christ sake, something's brewing, and its too late to react. Its a legit concern.

Post: #84

(11-05-2018 04:49 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

(11-05-2018 04:14 PM)Cr33pin Wrote:  Fooled by what? I'm not Venmo'n the guy $5

However a lot of times he covers shit that I wouldn't see on CNN or any other major news outlet. If it wasn't for this video popping up in my feed I wouldn't know that the Georgia democratic party was under investigation for voter fraud.

I'm still confused as to what I'm being fooled by? Is the Georgia Democratic Party not under investigation?? If thats the case then yes I've been bamboozled

He's the male equivalent of a tradthot.

CNN posted an article about the Georgia Democratic Party investigation on November 4th and updated it on the 5th. https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/...index.html

Same time our Styxen boy did.

I don't follow CNN either, but it's just silly to assume he's talking about things the MSM media is missing. Pretty much every major outlet covered this one. Doing a search of his channel reveals more of the same. He covers the exact same stuff the major outlets do.

He's not anymore insightful, special, have access to secret knowledge, or reporting on under reported events anymore than our favorite tradthots do.

There is nothing wrong with "tradthots" we need hot women on our side to make our side sexy. Ultimately, there is nothing wrong with anyone who doesn't cuck, plain and simple. As far as this Styx character is concerned, I'm not a female looking to suck his dick so I don't give a shit if he's "alpha" or not. If he's not cucking and spreading a message helpful to our side then he's a pro and not a con, simple as that. We can ill afford to discard potential allies just because we don't approve of their fashion sense.

Post: #85

What are the stock market plays tomorrow for a surprise Republican win?

Surprise Trump win led to spike in banks, collapse of gold and VIX

Post: #86

Anybody else placing some $ on PredictIt? $0.34 / share on Republicans taking the house. Worth throwing some petty cash at. Sometimes other worthy bet markets are found nestled lower down that tie into the main ones that get attention (and thus worse odds). Please share if you find any other markets worth betting on - individual candidates, whatever.

Post: #87

(11-05-2018 06:25 PM)christpuncher Wrote:  What are the stock market plays tomorrow for a surprise Republican win?

Surprise Trump win led to spike in banks, collapse of gold and VIX

This is why the market tanked the last couple weeks, based on the predictions of Dems taking the House. If you think Rs lose tomorrow and Dems get control, sell now or short everything now, as the stock market will crater on the next 2 years of gridlock and uncertainty.

If the R's win, the economy will keep booming and the stock market will keep going up. So Buy everything now while it's cheap, particularly manufacturing and construction stocks, US steel, any American companies. Short Big tech FAGS (Facebook, Amazon, Google) stocks, because they will get sanctioned soon.

Post: #88

I know I said I won't post until March so I'm a liar haha. Can't help it it's the eve of what I think is the Republicans keeping the Senate and gaining seats in the House. I've talked to a lot of smart conservatives that disagree with me but I think I'm right...we'll see tomorrow. I think Larry Scheikert is on to something generally speaking with the exception of his MA prediction. I don't think there is a Red Wave or a Blue Wave (ESPECIALLY definitely not). I'm looking forward to a 2016 style meltdown. However in case I'm wrong I'd probably stock up on resources. Reasons will be clearer if you watch the Cernovich/Bannon talk from last night.....

The Cernovich/Bannon talk last night is a must watch/listen. Key points:
* Bannon mentioned events like the 4th Turning and that if the Democrats win the House (unlikely) then Trump's admin will get hit by costly legal investigations essentially rendering him a lame duck. Forget about Trump 2020 tomorrow is a key battle.
* We're now at a point where presidential terms are down to 2 because of midterms. If Democrats do take the House Trump is a lame duck.
* Populism is on the rise, whether it's left wing (socialism) or right wing (MAGAism) we'll find out tomorrow. 100 years from now people may look back at us in awe or disgust.
* Ethnonationalism is all bull and if America is united on certain fronts like student loan reform and increasing wages through manufacturing our nation will be better off. Millenials like myself are getting shafted even though we are arguably one of the most informed generations in history.
* Doesn't do his own podcast because he wants to focus on certain projects like his war room and not overextend himself.

Like I said, a must watch.

(11-05-2018 07:42 PM)Fender_Bender Wrote:  Anybody else placing some $ on PredictIt? $0.34 / share on Republicans taking the house. Worth throwing some petty cash at. Sometimes other worthy bet markets are found nestled lower down that tie into the main ones that get attention (and thus worse odds). Please share if you find any other markets worth betting on - individual candidates, whatever.

I have about $4 on the North Dakota race. Supposedly Heidi H is not getting reelected and this has been the trend for 3 weeks. I bought in on 84c so I'll make 60c. I currently do not want to put any money on PI as I'm struggling financially at the moment.

I bought into the Elizabeth Warren market about a year ago at $70 and unfortunately I think she's getting reelected. Apparently being a fake Indian isn't going to hurt her. Would love to make money on this one though I'm looking at $300 if she loses.

Post: #89

(11-05-2018 07:42 PM)Fender_Bender Wrote:  Anybody else placing some $ on PredictIt? $0.34 / share on Republicans taking the house. Worth throwing some petty cash at. Sometimes other worthy bet markets are found nestled lower down that tie into the main ones that get attention (and thus worse odds). Please share if you find any other markets worth betting on - individual candidates, whatever.

I'm in way way too deep on predictit, and this will be the last time I put so much money on the line, even if I win.

I put in a decent amount on McSally, but many people are saying it's very iffy now, although I based my bet off the intel from this forum since it served me well in the 2016 election. I also put a lot on the Georgia govener race, on Kemp naturally. Again I hope it all comes up. I did not put much on long shot races, since I just didn't know enough about all the polls to make an informed decision. I also sprinkled money here and there on other races. I had previously won a little on the Kavanaugh hearings and also on the Bolsanaro election. Wish I had bet so aggressively back then.... Tomorrow will either make me kind of happy or really sad.

Anybody have any new word on the AZ race? How is that looking?

Post: #90

Post: #91

Shocked nobody here has mentioned that buffoon Nate Silver:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status...8421281792

"Put another way, I feel good about the 6-in-7 (~85%) chance our model gives Dems. We deliberately use models to NOT go by gut-feel, but it aligns with my intuition. I can't control whether the 6-in-7 or the 1-in-7 comes up—that's up to voters—but I think those are the right odds."

Epic fail 2016, will it be a repeat tomorrow?

Also relevant:
Vox Day's commenters are having a field day:

"dh wrote:
...and that's fundamentally dishonest.

Ron Winkleheimer wrote:
...your methodology is crap.

Solaire Of Astora wrote:
There is no value to this garbage outside of energizing/demoralizing people...


Nate Silver uses a complicated computer algorithm to pull the numbers he likes out of his ass. He presents it the way he does to evade any accountability. This has been his scam from day 1."

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2018/11/he-kn...mment-form

Post: #92

(11-05-2018 09:06 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote:  Shocked nobody here has mentioned that buffoon Nate Silver:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status...8421281792

"Put another way, I feel good about the 6-in-7 (~85%) chance our model gives Dems. We deliberately use models to NOT go by gut-feel, but it aligns with my intuition. I can't control whether the 6-in-7 or the 1-in-7 comes up—that's up to voters—but I think those are the right odds."

Epic fail 2016, will it be a repeat tomorrow?

"...aligns with my intuition..."? Intuition based on what? Feelings over facts?

I agreed with this guy's tweet:

Post: #93

Post: #94

(11-05-2018 07:42 PM)Fender_Bender Wrote:  Anybody else placing some $ on PredictIt? $0.34 / share on Republicans taking the house. Worth throwing some petty cash at. Sometimes other worthy bet markets are found nestled lower down that tie into the main ones that get attention (and thus worse odds). Please share if you find any other markets worth betting on - individual candidates, whatever.

I'm in on the following:

- Republicans taking the house
- Balance of power after 2018 midterms
- Which party will win the AZ senate race. McSally Rep.

I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Would love to win them all.

Post: #95

^^

Good luck to you and everybody who put money down. If they have king crab legs ($24/pound isn't exactly chump change) at the grocery store tomorrow I will be eating them pretending like they're liberal tears tomorrow night if Republicans take the House and Senate. Here's to hoping Christmas has arrived early for us all.

Post: #96

(11-05-2018 09:59 PM)BostonBMW Wrote:  

(11-05-2018 07:42 PM)Fender_Bender Wrote:  Anybody else placing some $ on PredictIt? $0.34 / share on Republicans taking the house. Worth throwing some petty cash at. Sometimes other worthy bet markets are found nestled lower down that tie into the main ones that get attention (and thus worse odds). Please share if you find any other markets worth betting on - individual candidates, whatever.

I'm in on the following:

- Republicans taking the house
- Balance of power after 2018 midterms
- Which party will win the AZ senate race. McSally Rep.

I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Would love to win them all.

In on, in order of easiest money to toughest:
-Ted Cruz remains TX Senator over Bobby O Rourke
-GOP 55 or more in senate
-Trump presidency 2020
-Both House and Senate go GOP

Post: #97

(11-05-2018 10:26 PM)ChicagoFire Wrote:  ^^

Good luck to you and everybody who put money down. If they have king crab legs ($24/pound isn't exactly chump change) at the grocery store tomorrow I will be eating them pretending like they're liberal tears tomorrow night if Republicans take the House and Senate. I've snooped around and we'll get our results from 1900-2300 EST. Here's to hoping Christmas has arrived early for us all.

Thanks. Love it - I hope you get to enjoy those crab legs. I'll be running on pure caffeine tomorrow night as the returns come in. It's not even about the money, I don't even like all the Republicans running (and their cuckery) -- my concern is that is that if the GOP loses the house, then Trump effectively becomes a lame duck until 2020, MAGA is derailed etc.

I'll be voting here in MA (Charlie Baker Gov - R will win; That Fake Indian Senate - D will also win) so no surprises here.

Post: #98

Holy shit he might just actually be able to pull this off. All of the momentum is on his side. This guy's a real star. Trump knows one when he sees one. He ranks very high on my electoral persuasion filter.

It still might not be enough and Stabenow might just survive but let's hope not. I want this guy on our side going forward.

Post: #99

(11-05-2018 10:27 PM)Barry Scrotada Wrote:  -Ted Cruz remains TX Senator over Bobby O Rourke
-GOP 55 or more in senate
-Trump presidency 2020
-Both House and Senate go GOP

Don't bet too much on Cruz.

• Trump has the young dems all fired up.
• Later arriving and non-English speaking Hispanics tend to be more Dem than earlier generations. TX is more Hispanic then ever.
• Non-English speakers might be hard to poll.
• Hispanics don't vote tribally, look how white Vincente Fox and Enrique Peña-Nieto are. Cruz's ethnicity won't be a gamechanger.

I still think Cruz would win, but it's not worth the risk for a 20% return. I lost ten thousand betting on Thesesa May not fucking up the UK election.

As for James; I have about 80 on him now. His momentum seems strong enough to risk it for a 600% return, though I'm not sure how the Bradley effect would affect things. In less polarised times, white 'pubs lied to pollsters they'd vote for a black dem, in order to not seem racist over the phone. But I doubt dems would have a similar approach to a black 'pub, especially if voting for a woman is also 'virtuous'.

Thinking about it; there is a public stigma against voting GOP in some communities, and with Trump's historically high approval rating amongst Black Americans, there might be some closet 'pubs in Detroit. I'll put another $30 on it. I can afford a $110 loss for a significance chance at $750 I can't afford risking the thousands it'd cost be for similar returns on Cruz.

Post: #100

Here is a whitepill-or blackpill, depending on how your look at it- concerning these midterms: it makes absolutely no difference if the GOP loses the House and it may in fact be beneficial.

Let's face it, Trump and the cucks have controlled all 3 branches of government and what have they done with it, legislatively speaking? Tax cuts for the rich funded entirely by extra borrowing and hiking the military budget. That's it.

-No movement whatsoever on immigration, in fact we barely escaped a disastrous cucking in 2018 solely due to the democrat base being too insane to allow their leadership to accept the one-sided deal the cucks offered them on a silver platter.

-Trade deficit is ballooning and the gap with China is at an all time high.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e...SKCN1N71DL
The NAFTA "renegotiation" was an utter and complete joke, a theater designed solely to mollify the base while changing nothing of substance. That dairy trade with Canada-all whopping hundred odd million dollars of it- was the highlight of the negotiations tells you all you need to know about the kabuki theater were were served up.

Trump has done some good things, don't get me wrong, but he hasn't done anything to really move the needle on anything of existential importance. Demographic projections on whites becoming a (slave)minority are basically unaltered. Internet freedom has never been under greater attack. Budget deficit is swelling. Migrants are swarming like it's 2015 again. Whether or not the GOP keeps the House, none of this will change.

So who cares if the Dems take the House? They may try to impeach Trump for show but they won't have the numbers in the Senate. As long as the Senate stays GOP, which it will, we'll continue to stuff the courts with-supposedly-our guys. Old man Sessions will continue to dish out senility in the halls of the DOJ, Trump will continue sending out bombastic tweets, and the demographics will keep on rolling. We got absolutely nothing from Cuck Ryan's House and we're not gonna get anything from whatever Cuck replaces him if we hold it save potentially another round of tax cuts for rich leftist oligarchs. For better or worse, tomorrow's elections are nigh on irrelevant if your concern is Policy as opposed to memes and staged drama like "the MEMO" etc.