Post: #1726

(12-30-2017 11:52 PM)kbell Wrote:  What's eth staking?

There are different approaches to securing a network and 'mining' blocks:

Currently most blockchains work on Proof-of-Work (PoW), which is where you mine blocks (solve crypto problems) using a GPU or ASIC.

Another approach, the one Ethereum is moving towards, is Proof-of-Stake (PoS) where you stake your ETH coins and become a validator (the equivalent of a miner)

There's a bunch of reasons to switch to PoS, but leaving that aside what this means for the average ETH holder: you can put down your ETH and earn ETH. In other words you can get paid dividend on your coins. Early estimates seem to mark dividends around 5-8% annual of your staked coins. Mininum staking time would be 4 months and initially a minimum stake of 1,000 ETH will be required. The mininum stake will be reduced in time though in the meantime people will probably pool their ETH together the way we currently having mining pools for PoW algorithms.

Post: #1727

(12-30-2017 08:38 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  Love how quiet this thread is.

I was talking to some of the other RVF guys. Honestly it's hard to keep the Ethereum thread updated. There's so much going within the Ethereum space, any free time I have for crypto is spent learning about the new developments in Ethereum. I have very little time to summarize it all in a concise manner. Just in the past few weeks on the top of my head, I can think of

* MakerDai and their stablecoin SAI, which is huge

* Streamr, an IOT setup that'll probably compete with IOTA

* zk-SNARKs (not really news) and its cousin, zk-SNARKs, which will enable private, trustless transactions which are quantum computing-proof (I think we're quite far away from QC being a real threat, but just shows the quality of the ETH development team and how they're already addressing that concern)

* SALT, an Ethereum-based decentralized lending app, which apparently already has requests for loans totalling $300 million. I need to look more into this and see how legitimate it is

* Vitalik explicitly coming out against only having crypto being a way to make money (the main purpose of many other projects it seem) and wanting the focus to remain on providing value to society

* Vitalik's blog posts on blockchain governance models and pros/cons of different types and how Ethereum fits in

* Technical discussions on a quick sharding protocol that could be implemented very soon, and which would lead to 100x more transactions processed

* Vlad teasing us about Casper (the PoS protocol) on Twitter, implying it might come online sooner than was expected

Some days I wish Ethereum had as little going on as other projects, would make this thread much easier to keep updated.

Post: #1728

What are people's predictions for ETH price in 2018?

Here's my (completely amateur) prediction:

The value of 1 ETH seems to follow network growth quite steadily, as according to Metcalfe's law.

Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is proportional to n^2, where n is the amount of users.

However this only applies to small values of n. For larger number of n, you get a slowdown and the network value becomes proportional to n*ln(n).

This is due to the fact that for large networks you don't get the same benefit. Imagine befriending 50 RVF members, your network is proportional to 50 RVF members you know. * the 50 RVF members they know. Now imagine you befriend 1000 RVF members, you're probably not going to have a network worth 1,000,000 RVF members as there will be serious overlap in membership and connections.

Thus we get:
ETH marketcap = A*n*ln(n).

Assuming 100 million ETH coins, n of 15 million and an ETH price of $750, you get A=300.

The growth of Ethereum has recently seen up to 250,000 new addresses per day.

https://etherscan.io/chart/address (it's already pushing towards 300,000 new addresses per day)

Assuming we keep that growth level constant for 2018, meaning we hit 250,000 new addresses every day for 2018, we'd get

New addresseses = 250,000*365 = 91,250,000 (or 91m in shorthand)
Total addresses = 15m + 91m for a total of 106m

ETH would then be worth:
300*106m*ln(106m)/100m

=$5876

Notes:
1. This assumes Metcalfe's law actually holds
2. This assumes a constant growth rate of 250,000 new addresses per day
3. This assumes the value of A remains at 300. It may (most likely) increase as PoS, sharding, and dApps are deployed

So my conservative estimate would be $5500/ETH by EOY 2018

My ultraoptimistic prediction:
1 million new addresses on average per day
A increases to $1000 once all the new cool Ethereum tech updates happen

I'd then get:
ETH = $75000

Probably won't happen though

To repeat: this is a total amateur guess to ETH price prediction and is most likely completely wrong. Still fun to imagine though

Post: #1729

Casper, the final version of Proof-of-Stake, is up on the test network.

Instructions for becoming a validator on the testnet:
https://hackmd.io/s/Hk6UiFU7z

For laymen: they're testing out Casper now.

Post: #1730

Nice analysis Genghis Khan. The team seems to be working hard. I would focus also on the number of transactions of ETH / bitcoin, which are now stable above 3.5 times, and value sent in USD which still sees bitcoin above but with ETH to catching up inexorably.
I imagine that ETH is no longer a bet, 5000$ by year end is maybe a bit too optimistic, probably there won't be an incredible rise like there was in 2017, but it should easily beat the market and go to #1 in terms of market cap this year.
So definitely a must in order to diversify the portfolio with a strong coin.

Post: #1731

Seriously Genghis Khan - keep this up.

Analysis like that shows that there are people out there thinking about ETH/Ethereum as an INVESTMENT as opposed to a TRADE (which is what 90-95% of these coins are - trades, not investments).


Also Giacomo - ETH going to #1 in market cap...let’s pretend that it reaches BTC’s current market cap of $220bn. That implies ETH reaching at least $2k/USD.

Would you say that above estimate is considerably more realistic? As it still implies a 3x ROIC, which will be hard to beat in other “asset classes.”

Post: #1732

(01-01-2018 03:53 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  Also Giacomo - ETH going to #1 in market cap...let’s pretend that it reaches BTC’s current market cap of $220bn. That implies ETH reaching at least $2k/USD.

Would you say that above estimate is considerably more realistic? As it still implies a 3x ROIC, which will be hard to beat in other “asset classes.”

Definitely, what I see is that bitcoin is down about 40% from the ATH, despite the global market cap being almost back to the ATH - it means that the market is increasingly decentralizing. I imagine that the trend might continue based on the well known issues bitcoin is experiencing and the new coins which are rising. Hence even a player with $170/180bn of market cap could be soon the #1

Post: #1733

(01-01-2018 05:02 PM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  

(01-01-2018 03:53 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  Also Giacomo - ETH going to #1 in market cap...let’s pretend that it reaches BTC’s current market cap of $220bn. That implies ETH reaching at least $2k/USD.

Would you say that above estimate is considerably more realistic? As it still implies a 3x ROIC, which will be hard to beat in other “asset classes.”

Definitely, what I see is that bitcoin is down about 40% from the ATH, despite the global market cap being almost back to the ATH - it means that the market is increasingly decentralizing. I imagine that the trend might continue based on the well known issues bitcoin is experiencing and the new coins which are rising. Hence even a player with $170/180bn of market cap could be soon the #1

This seems to match the trends in ETH/BTC pairs. Not my analysis, but still highly educational imo:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comme...lippening/



The "flippening" as some may know is when ETH overtakes BTC in marketcap. Ethereum came quite close to it in early 2017, with only a $7-8bn difference between BTC and ETH. If the pattern holds, we may see the flippening happening in early 2018, it may possible dip down again.

On a related note,

I get most of my information from the following 2 subreddit:
r/ethereum
r/ethtrader


r/ethereum is mostly technical issues, while r/ethtrader is much more about price

Post: #1734

Please, I'm a newbie here. Can anyone explain to me how to setup an Ethereum 'wallet' (dunno if that's what its called) so I van start trading?

Post: #1735

^If you can’t use Google to figure out how to do it, I’m not sure you deserve crypto gains :/

Post: #1736

(01-03-2018 03:17 AM)Stonk Wrote:  Please, I'm a newbie here. Can anyone explain to me how to setup an Ethereum 'wallet' (dunno if that's what its called) so I van start trading?

You can set up a wallet here:

https://www.myetherwallet.com/

To trade fiat currency for ETH, you will need an account on an exchange. You can sign up with Gemini to do this:

https://gemini.com/

Once you buy ETH, you can withdraw it to the wallet address that you created on myetherwallet.com.

Post: #1737

(01-03-2018 03:33 AM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  ^If you can’t use Google to figure out how to do it, I’m not sure you deserve crypto gains :/

There are so many wallet scams out there (phishing with Google Adwords ads, typosquatting, bogus sites, etc.), that I don't blame people for asking. Although, I agree in principle, Googling for the information should be one's first instinct.

Post: #1738

Fair enough.

ETH looks like it’s hitting $1k a coin today.

(just wanted to be the 12,000th post)

Post: #1739

Etherscan shows a new record for ETH addresses created in a day:

https://etherscan.io/chart/address
350,000 new addresses

And from Reddit, showing transactions for the day:



https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comme...er_chains/



I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Ethereum overtakes both Bitcoin and Ripple soon in market cap.

Post: #1740

^ETH and XRP were doing this dance one recent day, during which I thought ETH’s market cap was going to overtake XRP’s market cap.

Yet it didn’t happen.

What is propping up this sudden surge of interest in XRP? Surprised it got this far without GDAX normie access.

Post: #1741

I have a bunch of friends who are college kids - a LOT of them are getting into crypto.

Unfortunately, they're still college kids and don't necessarily have the life experience to understand what's s good project and what's marketing fluff.

Quite a few of them invested in XRP recently. I think they're all convinced banks are going to use it, when in reality that's predominantly hype and marketing by Ripple Labs.

We're very, very rapidly approaching the point of dumb money entering in the crypto space, although I think we might already have passed that point.

Post: #1742

^^ This indeed:

The only truly established coin is Bitcoin, Ethereum as a good second.

Then you have some coins who have proven value, but not like two abovementioned: Monero, Litecoin, ZCash, etc.

And then you have a shitload of coins which are basically whitepapers, some nice website, lots of promises. Some of these can become gamechangers and are very interesting in concept and idea, others are just made for easy profit and one day will go down hard. Choose wisely.

Post: #1743

BTC is the “gold” of the crypto currency universe.

ETH is the US dollar.

XRP is fast becoming the Yen.

Post: #1744

(01-05-2018 03:24 PM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  BTC is the “gold” of the crypto currency universe.

ETH is the US dollar.

XRP is fast becoming the Yen.

Explain your analogy, I didn't quite understand the yen part?

Post: #1745

Ripple is centralized system. The owner or the operator can make as many coins as they want.

So like the Bank of Japan, Ripple Labs can just keep printing yen/XRP.

Post: #1746

(01-06-2018 06:47 AM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  Ripple is centralized system. The owner or the operator can make as many coins as they want.

So like the Bank of Japan, Ripple Labs can just keep printing yen/XRP.

But there's only 100 Billion XRP. True that 60 Billion are held by Ripple Labs which they can dump at any time, but they can't make "as many as they want". They are constrained by this 100 Billion

Post: #1747

(01-06-2018 09:07 PM)Olav Wrote:  

(01-06-2018 06:47 AM)MaceTyrell Wrote:  Ripple is centralized system. The owner or the operator can make as many coins as they want.

So like the Bank of Japan, Ripple Labs can just keep printing yen/XRP.

But there's only 100 Billion XRP. True that 60 Billion are held by Ripple Labs which they can dump at any time, but they can't make "as many as they want". They are constrained by this 100 Billion

What makes Ripple Labs "constrained?"

They have voted themselves to be "constrained?"

Couldn't they undo such self-constraint at any time, which goes back to the theory that they can do whatever they want, no?

My understanding is that almost all companies can impose their own rules by majority vote or some kind of super majority vote, unless they are under some kind of court order or receivership. What's Ripple's specific constraint?

Post: #1748

$15bn in market cap separating ETH and XRP.

Post: #1749

$5bn in market cap between ETH and XRP!

LETS GO ETH.

Post: #1750

Nothing like waking up to ETH over XRP by $10bn.

Get XRP (a shitty, overhyped unminable coin) out of here.