Post: #226

(03-14-2017 08:25 PM)Libertas Wrote:  How's Fillon doing? Is he going out doing Trump style rallies with all his supporters? It's important that he gets through to the second round.

I'd like to write a Stumped analysis of this election. I'd need to know more about the fundamentals though.

If you're fluent in French, I can recommend a few sites that have very good coverage and insights, like TV Libertés or Alain Soral's ERTV:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSVf6BL...wUlBgUKoog

https://www.youtube.com/user/ERTVtube

Or if you'd like I can give you some feedback on your analysis.

Post: #227

Betting against Macron seems like a good bet now. he's 1.73 to 1 and Fillon has no other obstacles in his place.

Post: #228

Ignore my previous terrible advice.

It seems the Socialist Premier is about to endorse Macron. It is close to game over

Post: #229

(03-16-2017 05:06 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  Ignore my previous terrible advice.

It seems the Socialist Premier is about to endorse Macron. It is close to game over

I suppose that's a bad thing for Cromacron.

Post: #230

I mean the Prime Minister Manual Valls, not the walking joke Hollande

http://www.france24.com/en/20170314-fran...ntial-race

Post: #231

It would have been a big surprise if Valls hadn't endorsed Macron. The plan is to kill the Socialist Party and morph it into a more modern 21st century Blairite globalist SJW party, and both Valls and Hollande are total tools to this plan. Both of them are totally spent at this point, highly unpopular political figures who served the system and will now cash in on globalist foundations and corporate boards.

Post: #232

(03-16-2017 06:19 PM)911 Wrote:  The plan is to kill the Socialist Party and morph it into a more modern 21st century Blairite globalist SJW party, and both Valls and Hollande are total tools to this plan.

We live in interesting times.

It seems, unless Melenchon and Hamon combine forces, the best choice for a genuine socialist is either Le Pen or Thacherite Fillon.

Okay, I'll wait a week before reversing my bet, it may get better.

Post: #233

Le Pen is not a socialist. Why did you make that statement? You seem too concerned about your bet or are a psyop

(03-16-2017 06:44 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  

(03-16-2017 06:19 PM)911 Wrote:  The plan is to kill the Socialist Party and morph it into a more modern 21st century Blairite globalist SJW party, and both Valls and Hollande are total tools to this plan.

We live in interesting times.

It seems, unless Melenchon and Hamon combine forces, the best choice for a genuine socialist is either Le Pen or Thacherite Fillon.

Okay, I'll wait a week before reversing my bet, it may get better.

Post: #234

(03-16-2017 07:09 PM)MikeMcLaren Wrote:  Le Pen is not a socialist. Why did you make that statement? You seem too concerned about your bet or are a psyop

I also called a disciple of Margaret "union smasher" Thatcher the best choice for a socialist.

That is, the best choice for someone who doesn't want their socialist movement futher co-opted by the Blairite-Globalist SJWs.


Sorry for the confusion, I'm not really awake today.

Post: #235

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/m...ign-begins

Melenchon calls an alliance with Hamon 'absurd'.

Post: #236

One of my 2 flatmates is French, and from what I'm gathering from him, he's voting for Macron. Not surprised as we had a discussion a couple of months ago about changing demographics of Europe and mass migration from Africa that will follow and got the "Do you think they can't become Europeans or French? Or you telling me only I and people who look like me can be French?" , "The no-go zones are a myth", "Are you actually saying the French culture is SUPERIOR to where migrants come from?" etc.

I've never gone to school in Western Europe, but what is it that they are taught culturally that they are so hesitant to talk about hard facts and "real news" ? I think it's the cancer media they consume.

Subscriptions to The Economist, Time, SNL, John Oliver.....and naturally you'll end up a globalist puppet that think anything to the right of CNN is "spreading hate" and "fake news"

I shared the story of British girl that was raped and murdered in India with them, and got the usual "Was it really necessary?", "I bet there are thousands of girls who hang out with Indian locals and they don't get murdered, of course Daily Mail won't report that."

Have given up discussing anything political or cultural with them. real shame, because other than that they are really sound lads. SAD !!

Post: #237

(03-17-2017 03:40 PM)Transsimian Wrote:  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/m...ign-begins

Melenchon calls an alliance with Hamon 'absurd'.

Mélenchon is only there as a spoiler, to take away working class voters from le Pen.

Here's the latest poll:

Résultat du sondage "PrésiTrack" Opinionway / Orpi pour Radio Classique et Les Echos (17 mars 2017) :
Premier tour :

Marine LE PEN : 28% (+1)
Emmanuel MACRON : 25% (=)
François FILLON : 20% (+1)
Benoît HAMON : 12%
Jean-Luc MELENCHON : 11%
Nicolas DUPONT-AIGNAN : 3%
Nathalie ARTHAUD : 1%
Philippe POUTOU : 0%

Second tour :

Emmanuel MACRON : 59% (-1)
Marine LE PEN : 41% (+1)

Second tour (2) :

François FILLON : 55% (-1)
Marine LE PEN : 45% (+1)

There are 2 other polls in this link, they are both biased against le Pen/Fillon and in favor of Macron, from sources that are in the tank with the globalists.

http://www.linternaute.com/actualite/pol...-resultat/

Post: #238

Thanks for the poll.

It seems you are right and the old school hard left are potential second round Le Pen voters

Post: #239

(03-17-2017 05:31 PM)AManLikePutin Wrote:  One of my 2 flatmates is French, and from what I'm gathering from him, he's voting for Macron. Not surprised as we had a discussion a couple of months ago about changing demographics of Europe and mass migration from Africa that will follow and got the "Do you think they can't become Europeans or French? Or you telling me only I and people who look like me can be French?" , "The no-go zones are a myth", "Are you actually saying the French culture is SUPERIOR to where migrants come from?" etc.

I've never gone to school in Western Europe, but what is it that they are taught culturally that they are so hesitant to talk about hard facts and "real news" ? I think it's the cancer media they consume.

Subscriptions to The Economist, Time, SNL, John Oliver.....and naturally you'll end up a globalist puppet that think anything to the right of CNN is "spreading hate" and "fake news"

I shared the story of British girl that was raped and murdered in India with them, and got the usual "Was it really necessary?", "I bet there are thousands of girls who hang out with Indian locals and they don't get murdered, of course Daily Mail won't report that."

Have given up discussing anything political or cultural with them. real shame, because other than that they are really sound lads. SAD !!

Having lived in both Ireland and the UK, I can confirm that aside from a couple of the tabloids, practically every newspaper and magazine you could name is pushing progressivism, SJWism and feminism.
All major TV channels and radio stations and entertainment blogs are pushing Globalisation, some very explicitly.

Universities are getting worse too, all the kids are pro EU, Remainers, anti Trump, anti Christianity and pro Islam and open borders. They all love Socialism, some even like Communism. That eunuch John Oliver is popular here, so is SNL, and the biggest male feminist in my workplace is an avid reader of The Economist.

This is why Western Europe is so cucked.
The Globalists control almost all media, academia, entertainment industry, corporations and politicians. People are surrounded by indoctrination, and don't think to question that the information they're being fed is controlled and has a specific agenda.
The 'Appeal to Authority' fallacy.
People don't want to engage any thoughts that they're being lied to and manipulated, for a typical blue pill person, that idea is way too disturbing to contemplate.
So they dismiss it and remain blissfully ignorant.
This describes 90, perhaps 95% of people I know.

Post: #240

(03-17-2017 09:37 PM)amity Wrote:  Universities are getting worse too, all the kids are pro EU, Remainers, anti Trump, anti Christianity and pro Islam and open borders. They all love Socialism, some even like Communism. That eunuch John Oliver is popular here, so is SNL, and the biggest male feminist in my workplace is an avid reader of The Economist.

This is why Western Europe is so cucked.
The Globalists control almost all media, academia, entertainment industry, corporations and politicians. People are surrounded by indoctrination, and don't think to question that the information they're being fed is controlled and has a specific agenda.

You are right, lots of young Europeans are lefties. The good news is, that they tend to become more Conservative once they have things of value to conserve.

The bad news is that adults can be kept in line because they don't want their career wrecked by being called a bigot or a *ist. Like Trump, A Le Pen victory would be be a gamechanger by depowering the chilling effect of the SJWs. Fillon would be a good president but his traditionalism wouldn't change the cultural battlefield

Post: #241

This thread deserves more pictures of Marion Maréchal-Le Pen!

She gets an automatic +1 for being Front national heiress.

Vive la France!

Post: #242

A video with 20 year old Marion Maréchal-Le Pen first political campain.

Post: #243

Nigel Farage interviewed Marine Le Pen on his show recently.

Post: #244

http://www.smh.com.au/world/emmanuel-mac...v18w1.html

Macron has put on his big-boy trousers and now wants all young French people to do 1 month of military service.

Post: #245

(03-17-2017 09:37 PM)amity Wrote:  

(03-17-2017 05:31 PM)AManLikePutin Wrote:  One of my 2 flatmates is French, and from what I'm gathering from him, he's voting for Macron. Not surprised as we had a discussion a couple of months ago about changing demographics of Europe and mass migration from Africa that will follow and got the "Do you think they can't become Europeans or French? Or you telling me only I and people who look like me can be French?" , "The no-go zones are a myth", "Are you actually saying the French culture is SUPERIOR to where migrants come from?" etc.

I've never gone to school in Western Europe, but what is it that they are taught culturally that they are so hesitant to talk about hard facts and "real news" ? I think it's the cancer media they consume.

Subscriptions to The Economist, Time, SNL, John Oliver.....and naturally you'll end up a globalist puppet that think anything to the right of CNN is "spreading hate" and "fake news"

I shared the story of British girl that was raped and murdered in India with them, and got the usual "Was it really necessary?", "I bet there are thousands of girls who hang out with Indian locals and they don't get murdered, of course Daily Mail won't report that."

Have given up discussing anything political or cultural with them. real shame, because other than that they are really sound lads. SAD !!

Having lived in both Ireland and the UK, I can confirm that aside from a couple of the tabloids, practically every newspaper and magazine you could name is pushing progressivism, SJWism and feminism.
All major TV channels and radio stations and entertainment blogs are pushing Globalisation, some very explicitly.

Universities are getting worse too, all the kids are pro EU, Remainers, anti Trump, anti Christianity and pro Islam and open borders. They all love Socialism, some even like Communism. That eunuch John Oliver is popular here, so is SNL, and the biggest male feminist in my workplace is an avid reader of The Economist.

This is why Western Europe is so cucked.
The Globalists control almost all media, academia, entertainment industry, corporations and politicians. People are surrounded by indoctrination, and don't think to question that the information they're being fed is controlled and has a specific agenda.
The 'Appeal to Authority' fallacy.
People don't want to engage any thoughts that they're being lied to and manipulated, for a typical blue pill person, that idea is way too disturbing to contemplate.
So they dismiss it and remain blissfully ignorant.
This describes 90, perhaps 95% of people I know.

For Americans, imagine living in a US where there is no Fox, no Breitbart, no right win newspapers and that the government pays about half of all journalists indirectly through media licensing, that is Europe. Then imagine that 80% of journalists and teachers are red.

In any case, we have the internet now, so I don't give Europeans a pass anymore. Those who are not woke now deserve no sympathy.

Post: #246

The propaganda is strong there too, but the youth who are leaning Macron will have some of the lowest turnout rates, and the compulsory military service might turn them off a bit. He really doesn't have a lot of grassroots support, Macron is a total astroturf candidate. He had to resort to the military service because he went full SJW on the French colonial experience in Algeria, so he's trying to make up for this.

Post: #247

That makes sense.

Old people are set in their ways, and have strong tribal loyalty to the UMP/LR or the socialists.

It's only the young who are up for grabs, and Marine is doing surprisingly well in that demographic.
Macrons latest military service idea will scare the young, and not win much conservative support from LR.

Then again, some old women might like that he brings his elderly mother everywhere he goes.


On a personal note, I had just came out of a two hour operation a few days ago and I made a stupid greater than $10,000 bet against Macron while high-as-fuck on painkillers. It's good to hear I may not have wasted my money. I plan to cash it out after the big debate on Monday. Hopefully Fillon and Le Pen will tag team him.

Post: #248

My current main girl is French. Her father is a retired army officer who lives in one of the wealthiest and most Catholic areas in France, in the western suburbs of Paris. He does not like Muslims at all, and I suspect he won't be over the moon to hear his daughter is riding this brown dick. Yet even he will be voting for Macron on the 2nd round against Le Pen (he is voting for Fillon in the 1st). If she cannot win over a man like this, it is a struggle to see how she could assemble a broad enough coalition to win over 50% of the vote. Le Pen needs the LR/UMP vote on her side. This makes me suspect this is not happening.

Post: #249

(03-19-2017 01:31 AM)Deluge Wrote:  If she cannot win over a man like this, it is a struggle to see how she could assemble a broad enough coalition to win over 50% of the vote. Le Pen needs the LR/UMP vote on her side. This makes me suspect this is not happening.

It's hard to tell your daughter you are voting for a "Fascist", but in the ballot box, no one will know or judge you.

Besides, voting isn't compulsary, so I doubt many Fillon supporters would be motivated to go out and vote for him.

Fillon has been screwed too much by the establishment to endorse Macron, but he is too old guard to endorse Marine. His supporters choice will instead depend on how acrimonious the debates between Macron and Fillon end up being.

On the subject of the debates, the first one is on Monday at 9pm. Only the top five candidates have been invited and it is moderated by a pro-Hillary Clinton moderator.

https://www.marianne.net/politique/presi...le-20-mars

Post: #250

(03-19-2017 02:26 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  On the subject of the debates, the first one is on Monday at 9pm. Only the top five candidates have been invited and it is moderated by a pro-Hillary Clinton moderator.

Five candidates, and imbalanced: 3 leftist trash, against 2 patriot candidates.

It would and should have been 3-3, but MSM has refused to allow right-wing Nicolas Dupont-Aignan to participate in the debate. Dupont-Aignan's crime? Having said the inconvenient truth: that Sub-Saharan mass-migration should be the number-one obsession of the new French president (beating in urgency the euro or "Islam")...