Post: #176

Thank you for the explanation.

Yes, I'd be all for Fillon if he offered a referendum, but as it stands, he is worse than MLP in that area.

I fear Hollande is looking for an excuse to endorse Macron over the official Socialist Party candidate Hamon.

BTW, on a purely gambling perspective, I guess there will be a widening of Fillon's odds in mid March when he is questioned, so I'm trying to sell $3000 of my stake to rebet in a week. The wife scandal will not bring him down, his defence is strong enough to make the Republicans stake their party on it, so it'll be a non issue in a month.

Post: #177

(03-06-2017 10:53 PM)911 Wrote:  He's a classic Grand Orient freemason, a lodge whose ideology has been at the core of the French revolutionary movement for the past two and a half centuries,

Hmm sounds a bit tinfoil hat to me...how the hell do you know all this!?

Post: #178

Won't Hamon/Melenchon get knocked out in the first round? Securing extra blue collar votes for MLP in the first round is not a priority, the priority is knocking out Macron. Let them drift over to her for the second round.

What you have to remember is that French people do not act nor think like people from Anglosphere countries. They are always trying to find their 'next Napoleon'. They are angry because they want to become something great again after years of being cucked by the UK and Germany, but they don't want to fully modernise their economy like the 2 aforementioned countries, and think nationalism is a curse.

In the majority of french people's eyes, being a good french citizen/patriot means not being proud of your country and its qualities.

Post: #179

(03-07-2017 03:41 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  I fear Hollande is looking for an excuse to endorse Macron over the official Socialist Party candidate Hamon.

BTW, on a purely gambling perspective, I guess there will be a widening of Fillon's odds in mid March when he is questioned, so I'm trying to sell $3000 of my stake to rebet in a week. The wife scandal will not bring him down, his defence is strong enough to make the Republicans stake their party on it, so it'll be a non issue in a month.

Sounds like a good play Simian, fingers crossed.

Hollande has already come out in favor of Macron, who was his Minister of Economy and Industry (powerful position with the French cabinet).

(03-07-2017 04:43 AM)lightning_jack Wrote:  

(03-06-2017 10:53 PM)911 Wrote:  He's a classic Grand Orient freemason, a lodge whose ideology has been at the core of the French revolutionary movement for the past two and a half centuries,

Hmm sounds a bit tinfoil hat to me...how the hell do you know all this!?

Mélenchon admitted so much in this interview, he is part of the highly influential Grand Orient masonic order, the lodge network that has planned and overseen the French Revolution and spawned the modern left. He has also stated that his father and grandfather were also part of that lodge.

In this video, at the 2:10 mark, Mélenchon says that he is very committed to the philosophy of the Grand Orient, and that everything else for him flows from this ideology, his politics and his personal commitment to the radical cultural emancipation of mankind.

There are well over 100 masons among the 577 members of the French congress, and many in every government. Historically, the minister of education has always been the domain of freemasons, who have had a free hand in shaping the national academic curriculum, culminating with the recent introduction of gender theory under the Hollande government.

For some background research on freemasons and the French Revolution, here are a few historic works, mostly from the early 20th century:

Albert Descamps - La Franc-maconnerie francaise et la revolution de 1789 ou l'histoire d'une fausse réputation

http://documents.irevues.inist.fr/bitstr...sequence=1

Jean de Lannoy - La Révolution preparée par la franc-maconnerie (1911)

http://www.liberius.net/livres/La_Revolu...000318.pdf

Maurice Talmeyr - La Franc Maconnerie Et La Révolution Francaise (1904)
https://archive.org/details/MauriceTalme...ncaise1904

and a lecture by French revisionist historian Marion Sigault:

Post: #180

Given Hollande's sad 4% approval rating, won't his endorsement actually hurt Macron? It's like !Jeb endorsing Ted Cruz...

Post: #181

I'm assuming that his approval rating amongst likely Socialist voters is higher.

Then again, he spends 9500 a month on his haircut, so he's not exactly a paragon of Socialist virtue

Post: #182

(03-06-2017 11:42 PM)MikeMcLaren Wrote:  Only thing that matters is if le Pen is able to end the EU/Euro by pulling France out. She is by far the best choice and is the only person who would 100% end the EU/Euro by pulling France out.

It's shocking Hollande declared his 'ultimate duty' to prevent le Pen from winning. Who is his 'ultimate duty' to? The globalists I would answer definitely not the people of France.

Voting for anyone but LePen is utterly useless. And even with LePen you can discuss on how much she can really do, but at least there is a chance with her. Voting for anyone else in the globalist borg-collective is automatic continuation of "more-of-the-same".

I think that the polls are certainly wrong and most people will not admit to intending to vote for her. That is the only thing that will make a victory possible there.

Post: #183

(03-08-2017 02:54 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  

(03-06-2017 11:42 PM)MikeMcLaren Wrote:  Only thing that matters is if le Pen is able to end the EU/Euro by pulling France out. She is by far the best choice and is the only person who would 100% end the EU/Euro by pulling France out.

It's shocking Hollande declared his 'ultimate duty' to prevent le Pen from winning. Who is his 'ultimate duty' to? The globalists I would answer definitely not the people of France.

Voting for anyone but LePen is utterly useless. And even with LePen you can discuss on how much she can really do, but at least there is a chance with her. Voting for anyone else in the globalist borg-collective is automatic continuation of "more-of-the-same".

I think that the polls are certainly wrong and most people will not admit to intending to vote for her. That is the only thing that will make a victory possible there.

How safe do you reckon a bet on Macron and Le Pen to be the final two would be?

Post: #184

(03-08-2017 02:54 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  Voting for anyone but LePen is utterly useless. And even with LePen you can discuss on how much she can really do, but at least there is a chance with her. Voting for anyone else in the globalist borg-collective is automatic continuation of "more-of-the-same".

If implimented, her EU/Immigration policy will save France. Judging by his recent mistreatment, Fillon isn't a globalist plant, but his restrictions and renegotiations don't go far enough. Then again, Fillon's party (LR) is a lot stronger in parliament, than Le Pen's FN so he might actually achieve more.

(03-08-2017 03:34 AM)Don Wrote:  How safe do you reckon a bet on Macron and Le Pen to be the final two would be?

It's the most likely outcome, the question is, are the odds you can get worth the risk. Juppe used to be favourite, then Fillon, now Macron. There is no guarantee he'll stay in the lead.

Post: #185

No - he won't. Everyone of them are globalist puppets - even LePen might be, but there is at least a chance that she isn't. Only a radical massive policy change will save France. Otherwise you are looking a country that will be a shithole in 20-30 years and one of the beginning countries that get the honor of being the starting place for WWIII with Islam.

What the odds are - I don't know. Betting can be done scientifically and there are guys who make millions off it, but you have to study the stats, discount the mainstream to some degree, study also the electoral system in detail. And of course professional betting rules apply - never risk more than 1% of capital, hedge your bets constantly, etc.

My personal take is that she will come to the second round and be defeated there. If she wins by a massive landslide in the first, then she may have a chance, but all blacks and Muslims will vote against her, also a big portion of the women and brainwashed liberal population. She has a chance if the countryside and the men rise up and go voting, taking the married women with them.

Otherwise La Grande Nation et fini. Napoleon would have turned in his grave, but he lost to the globalists too, so no surprise.

Post: #186

Honest question, why do you think Marine might be compromised?

Post: #187

Because the globalists have been at it for centuries now, their historians like Carroll Quigley spell it out in detail, the Congressional Reece Commission proved it in addition.

France has been on the forefront of the fight with Napoleon. He lost and France fell fully into the hands of the globalists. De Gaulle managed to stem the flow a bit, but the agenda continued fast after him. The globalists never give up.

Why would anyone assume in our times that any politician will truly change things? The biggest current shitlords can at best stem the agenda for a while. All others who have the chance of totally turning the table probably die before they can even join an election.

Le Pen is a test of sorts whether the population can rise up or whether the French (and the massive foreign population within) are brainwashed enough to go on fast with the agenda. Even if Le Pen is a co-worker of sort for them - when she wins, then they know that they have to slow down for a while or go back one step or a real revolution is coming.

I have little hope for France. Even countries which are shitlord central like Poland or Hungary are under constant onslaught by the globalists with the entire foreign-owned media blasting propaganda 24/7 (most media is globalist owned incl. some alternatives).

At this stage of the game of worldly conquest we have to be mistrustful of any alternative candidate that is not dead before the election.

Still - I would vote for Le Pen just as I would vote for Trump and Brexit. I wouldn't bother voting for any other candidate - they are all 100% traitors.

Post: #188

(03-08-2017 04:29 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  No - he won't. Everyone of them are globalist puppets - even LePen might be, but there is at least a chance that she isn't. Only a radical massive policy change will save France. Otherwise you are looking a country that will be a shithole in 20-30 years and one of the beginning countries that get the honor of being the starting place for WWIII with Islam.

What the odds are - I don't know. Betting can be done scientifically and there are guys who make millions off it, but you have to study the stats, discount the mainstream to some degree, study also the electoral system in detail. And of course professional betting rules apply - never risk more than 1% of capital, hedge your bets constantly, etc.

My personal take is that she will come to the second round and be defeated there. If she wins by a massive landslide in the first, then she may have a chance, but all blacks and Muslims will vote against her, also a big portion of the women and brainwashed liberal population. She has a chance if the countryside and the men rise up and go voting, taking the married women with them.

Otherwise La Grande Nation et fini. Napoleon would have turned in his grave, but he lost to the globalists too, so no surprise.

I agree with you and I am familiar with betting strategy. I actually made quite a bit of money(over 5 figures) on the US presidential elections. But this election is turning out to be harder for me to call.

One of the most reliable indicators I have found when it comes to predicting the outcome of a incoming political event is amount of searches on a particular keyword associated with the event or a respective nominee. When the average voter thinks about making a decision, one of the first things he does afterwards is 'google it'.

Look at the searches before Brexit:


And before the US elections:


And finally this is how the search volume looks today, in France, between the top 3 candidates


This is definitely noteworthy. This leaves me the impression that Macron is being ballooned with hot gas and he's nowhere near as popular as the media paints him as being and that Le Pen actually still has a chance.

I'm afraid that the Bradley effect is hugely in play here and it's practically impossible to predict, at this time, who will be the winner. I wouldn't discount an outcome where a lot of Frenchies would tell the pollsters they're voting Macron and even tell to themselves that they're voting for him and when they're in the voting booth to simply think to themselves: "you know what? fuck this system, I want my old France back..Vive la révolution!" and vote Le Pen.

I have 1.5k in the barrel for a bet and I simply can't seem to be able to find the edge here. I used to be 99% sure of a Macron victory, but something about all the data I'm seeing makes me question that assumption big time. Right now I'm not even sure if the final two will be Macron and LePen, Fillon could still recover.

((They)) could also be preparing a 'coup de grâce' on LePen. Lifting her immunity because of that tweet seemed foolish, anyone with half a brain could've predicted that it would help her in the polls and increase her popularity. I think it's more likely it was merely a 'move' to open her up for the next one that should cause the actual damage.

Post: #189

^^^
Great post Don, very interesting.
Surely going on the info you've provided above, Fillon is worth a bet to win or at least to make the final two?

Post: #190

(03-08-2017 06:19 AM)amity Wrote:  ^^^
Great post Don, very interesting.
Surely going on the info you've provided above, Fillon is worth a bet to win or at least to make the final two?

I think Fillon got assassinated in this election. Penelopegate turned out to be one of the most effective(in it's destruction) scandals that I've witnessed, and I think ((they)) knew exactly what they were doing.

I think Fillon had a real chance at this presidency, more so than LePen or Macron. If the French were thinking they need a change from socialism, they would've gave it a shot with Fillon. But now, everyone knows he paid his wife millions from their taxes. I don't think he can recover from this, but the attention and support he's still getting is interesting to say the least. The massive spike in interest could be attributed to the rumors of him dropping out and then to the massive speech he recently held.

My bookie is offering only 4:1 on a on a Fillon/LePen final two, and at these odds I don't know if we're even breaking even. It would make sense only if we would know there's a high likelihood that a 'deathblow' would be delivered soon to LePen's campaign.

Post: #191

(03-07-2017 01:13 PM)911 Wrote:  

(03-07-2017 03:41 AM)Transsimian Wrote:  I fear Hollande is looking for an excuse to endorse Macron over the official Socialist Party candidate Hamon.

BTW, on a purely gambling perspective, I guess there will be a widening of Fillon's odds in mid March when he is questioned, so I'm trying to sell $3000 of my stake to rebet in a week. The wife scandal will not bring him down, his defence is strong enough to make the Republicans stake their party on it, so it'll be a non issue in a month.

Sounds like a good play Simian, fingers crossed.

Hollande has already come out in favor of Macron, who was his Minister of Economy and Industry (powerful position with the French cabinet).

(03-07-2017 04:43 AM)lightning_jack Wrote:  

(03-06-2017 10:53 PM)911 Wrote:  He's a classic Grand Orient freemason, a lodge whose ideology has been at the core of the French revolutionary movement for the past two and a half centuries,

Hmm sounds a bit tinfoil hat to me...how the hell do you know all this!?

Mélenchon admitted so much in this interview, he is part of the highly influential Grand Orient masonic order, the lodge network that has planned and overseen the French Revolution and spawned the modern left. He has also stated that his father and grandfather were also part of that lodge.

In this video, at the 2:10 mark, Mélenchon says that he is very committed to the philosophy of the Grand Orient, and that everything else for him flows from this ideology, his politics and his personal commitment to the radical cultural emancipation of mankind.

There are well over 100 masons among the 577 members of the French congress, and many in every government. Historically, the minister of education has always been the domain of freemasons, who have had a free hand in shaping the national academic curriculum, culminating with the recent introduction of gender theory under the Hollande government.

For some background research on freemasons and the French Revolution, here are a few historic works, mostly from the early 20th century:

Albert Descamps - La Franc-maconnerie francaise et la revolution de 1789 ou l'histoire d'une fausse réputation

http://documents.irevues.inist.fr/bitstr...sequence=1

Jean de Lannoy - La Révolution preparée par la franc-maconnerie (1911)

http://www.liberius.net/livres/La_Revolu...000318.pdf

Maurice Talmeyr - La Franc Maconnerie Et La Révolution Francaise (1904)
https://archive.org/details/MauriceTalme...ncaise1904

and a lecture by French revisionist historian Marion Sigault:

Someone give me a tinfoil hat. Somehow I've never heard any of this living in the UK...

Post: #192

Incidentally what is the end game for these 'globalists'. I really don't get it. Why would they want to turn western countries into third world ghettos?

Post: #193

(03-08-2017 06:13 AM)Don Wrote:  

(03-08-2017 04:29 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  No - he won't. Everyone of them are globalist puppets - even LePen might be, but there is at least a chance that she isn't. Only a radical massive policy change will save France. Otherwise you are looking a country that will be a shithole in 20-30 years and one of the beginning countries that get the honor of being the starting place for WWIII with Islam.

What the odds are - I don't know. Betting can be done scientifically and there are guys who make millions off it, but you have to study the stats, discount the mainstream to some degree, study also the electoral system in detail. And of course professional betting rules apply - never risk more than 1% of capital, hedge your bets constantly, etc.

My personal take is that she will come to the second round and be defeated there. If she wins by a massive landslide in the first, then she may have a chance, but all blacks and Muslims will vote against her, also a big portion of the women and brainwashed liberal population. She has a chance if the countryside and the men rise up and go voting, taking the married women with them.

Otherwise La Grande Nation et fini. Napoleon would have turned in his grave, but he lost to the globalists too, so no surprise.

I agree with you and I am familiar with betting strategy. I actually made quite a bit of money(over 5 figures) on the US presidential elections. But this election is turning out to be harder for me to call.

One of the most reliable indicators I have found when it comes to predicting the outcome of a incoming political event is amount of searches on a particular keyword associated with the event or a respective nominee. When the average voter thinks about making a decision, one of the first things he does afterwards is 'google it'.

Look at the searches before Brexit:


And before the US elections:


And finally this is how the search volume looks today, in France, between the top 3 candidates


This is definitely noteworthy. This leaves me the impression that Macron is being ballooned with hot gas and he's nowhere near as popular as the media paints him as being and that Le Pen actually still has a chance.

I'm afraid that the Bradley effect is hugely in play here and it's practically impossible to predict, at this time, who will be the winner. I wouldn't discount an outcome where a lot of Frenchies would tell the pollsters they're voting Macron and even tell to themselves that they're voting for him and when they're in the voting booth to simply think to themselves: "you know what? fuck this system, I want my old France back..Vive la révolution!" and vote Le Pen.

I have 1.5k in the barrel for a bet and I simply can't seem to be able to find the edge here. I used to be 99% sure of a Macron victory, but something about all the data I'm seeing makes me question that assumption big time. Right now I'm not even sure if the final two will be Macron and LePen, Fillon could still recover.

((They)) could also be preparing a 'coup de grâce' on LePen. Lifting her immunity because of that tweet seemed foolish, anyone with half a brain could've predicted that it would help her in the polls and increase her popularity. I think it's more likely it was merely a 'move' to open her up for the next one that should cause the actual damage.

Good post. I was about to say that. In my analysis of the election (which you can find on my blog in December's archives), Trump was always doing way better than Hillary in organic social proof scores (rally sizes, merc sales, search trends, etc.)

Specifically, see in trends "how to vote for..."

If someone in France can search "how to vote for" Le Pen vs. Fillon vs. Macron it would be good.

Who's getting the big crowds? I saw Fillon with a huge one the other day.

Who's selling? Whose merchandise is being searched for more?

That's a good way to find out. I wish I could compare other persuasion factors effectively. Macron in particular seems to be riding against the pendulum reaction towards Hollande's leftism but I can't be certain since I'm not there. On the other hand, I see Macron is trying to ride the pendulum against Hollande in his own way.

There are other factors to consider like charisma. With some help I can try to do a full-blown persuasion analysis like I did in Stumped but the key thing to consider is...

Polls and "scandals" are largely transitory. Elections are mostly decided by the fundamentals of persuasion and the overall atmosphere.

Post: #194

(03-08-2017 09:23 AM)Libertas Wrote:  Good post. I was about to say that. In my analysis of the election (which you can find on my blog in December's archives), Trump was always doing way better than Hillary in organic social proof scores (rally sizes, merc sales, search trends, etc.)

Specifically, see in trends "how to vote for..."

If someone in France can search "how to vote for" Le Pen vs. Fillon vs. Macron it would be good.

Who's getting the big crowds? I saw Fillon with a huge one the other day.

Who's selling? Whose merchandise is being searched for more?

That's a good way to find out. I wish I could compare other persuasion factors effectively. Macron in particular seems to be riding against the pendulum reaction towards Hollande's leftism but I can't be certain since I'm not there. On the other hand, I see Macron is trying to ride the pendulum against Hollande in his own way.

There are other factors to consider like charisma. With some help I can try to do a full-blown persuasion analysis like I did in Stumped but the key thing to consider is...

Polls and "scandals" are largely transitory. Elections are mostly decided by the fundamentals of persuasion and the overall atmosphere.

Interesting stuff.

When I considered the charisma aspect I actually put Macron at a huge advantage. Everyone is comparing this election to Trump vs Hillary but Hillary was nothing like this guy. She was an ugly, antipathic old hag and he's a young, charismatic, intelligent guy, definitely much more likeable than she was. I've seen organic opinions on social media from frenchies that complimented him on his speech and cadence. I bet it's an aspect that he worked a lot on and which is tailored for his audience.

A big problem is the language barrier for me, I don't speak much french and google/facebook translate can only take me so far.

There's a subreddit called /r/Le_Pen which has some activity but nowhere near the levels of The_Donald. Even on /pol/ I can barely find 2-3 threads a day on the subject, and the French people that do comment there are usually depressed and with a huge victim mentality, the unanimous opinion of your average french /pol/er seems to be that "yes, our country sucks, we're doomed, we lost".

((they)) might win only because of this. Because they learned from the mistake with Brexit and Trump and no longer focus on denigrating the opponent, but on propping their own. So now MSM propaganda is all about how awesome Macron is and Le Pen becomes a 2nd tier subject.

Post: #195

There is a remarkable similarity between the French elections and the US, you are seeing a lot of the same dynamics.

Macron = Hillbama non-stop good press, lipstick on a pig. A lot like Obama in terms of fake charisma and closet tendencies.

Le Pen = Trump, literally Hitler, the horror! 34/7 villification

Fillon getting the same treatment, with the media colluding against him, and controlled alternative media dripping inflated scandal bits week by week.

Fillon is somewhat of an establishment candidate, but they don't trust him enough because he's not ideologically committed to the cause (identity politics) as a traditionalist, and he's spontaneously built a following, outflanking globalist Juppe with the conservative wing of the center-right Republicains. He could go rogue, because he's actually fairly clean, like Trump, all his skeletons are already out.

Le Pen has sold out to the establishment on some aspects. Her father was pure, unbridled, uncucked French nationalism. He dared to attack the holocaust and never held back, the guy is a total badass. Marine took over the party (mostly through her father handing her the keys) and disowned him. She coddled the powerful masonic/gay/Jewish block, turning the FN into something like the Dutch far right, who are aggressively anti-muslim but also pro-deep state, anti-Christian and very zionist. She wanted to get some legitimacy with the establishment but barely got any.

The thing is though, the French presidency is a powerful position, once in power the president has a lot of pull, so the globalists don't trust Fillon, and le Pen even less. France is now the central cog in the EU and the NATO bridge, if it goes rogue, the globalists will be set decades back. You can see the globalists' desperation in their attack against Fillon and MLP.

According to Alain Soral (one of the sharpest socio-political analysts in France, and public enemy #1), there are globalist moles in place within the FN, like Florian Philippot, who are there to reign her in or even splinter the party should she win.

The key to the election IMO is the center-right party leadership. If they unite for Fillon, he will overcome the hit jobs. But it's not happening, at least not so far, the Cucks are out with their knives, very similar to what happened in the US, with the McCain types out cucking in full force. They got the memo, some are even hinting that they will openly back the Rothschild's man Macron. We'll have to see if enough party officials rally back, which might happen because Fillon still has a decent amount of grassroots support.

(03-08-2017 07:52 AM)lightning_jack Wrote:  Someone give me a tinfoil hat. Somehow I've never heard any of this living in the UK...

Most people in France haven't heard the red pill version of French history either, there is a lot of brainwashing through the French education system. But the research is very well-documented.

Post: #196

Jack I would also add to that list above John Robison's "Proof of a Conspiracy" to that list, accessible to English speakers, as opposed to the other works. He has a whole chapter on the French Revolution.

http://www.sacred-texts.com/sro/pc/

Post: #197

(03-08-2017 12:25 PM)911 Wrote:  Jack I would also add to that list above John Robison's "Proof of a Conspiracy" to that list, accessible to English speakers, as opposed to the other works. He has a whole chapter on the French Revolution.

http://www.sacred-texts.com/sro/pc/

Thanks would be nice if those other works had English translations.

But really why would conspirators want to destroy the west and turn it into a giant ghetto.

Presumably said conspirators actually want to LIVE in the west.

Post: #198

http://www.lci.fr/elections/video-cindy-...28442.html

Big breasted candidate strips naked outside the National Assembly to demand transparency..

Maybe a bit old for a definite WB, but certainly a WVFIEMWTOOC (Would Vote For If Emmanuel Macron Was The Only Other Choice).

Post: #199

They aren't going to be living where you are going to be living (gated communities - probably with two gates).

(03-08-2017 02:31 PM)lightning_jack Wrote:  

(03-08-2017 12:25 PM)911 Wrote:  

But really why would conspirators want to destroy the west and turn it into a giant ghetto.

Presumably said conspirators actually want to LIVE in the west.

Post: #200

(03-09-2017 12:15 AM)MikeMcLaren Wrote:  They aren't going to be living where you are going to be living (gated communities - probably with two gates).

(03-08-2017 02:31 PM)lightning_jack Wrote:  

(03-08-2017 12:25 PM)911 Wrote:  

But really why would conspirators want to destroy the west and turn it into a giant ghetto.

Presumably said conspirators actually want to LIVE in the west.

In addition there are 2 other developments that are likely forthcoming:

A) Countryside living for the useless eaters is to be set to go to zero - you will have to have ever more cash or special allowences to live there

B) The posh city areas becoming access-restricted and not everyone being able to enter - or they become so extremely well-guarded.

As for when the full war comes - then they simply move for a while and come back when everything is quiet again - worked in WWII and will work in WWIII.