Post: #51

(12-28-2016 08:26 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  I´ve traded for a while. And started doing the math. By investing 100k in trading. And making a return of 30% in one year. The return I would get 30k. By dividing this by 12 month. It would be 2500$/month. To earn this I would have to spend 8-10h/day monitoring the market, news, checking company metrics.

So do you need to risk 100k and work 10h/day to earn 2500$/month? With the extra risk of losing the money in a bad decision? Because it´s active income. Passive income would be an index of 5% return.

It didn´t made sense to me.

This is simple logic I made. But can be wrong. Due to inexperience or other reason. It´s only worth it for higher numbers. Most people I know who trade do it for the fun. Like going to a Casino. Or betting in sports. In order to do this professionally I would have to either put up a higher number in the market or manage other people´s money and mine at the same time.

Was told you don´t create wealth in the stock market. Only accumulate.

The difference is the time the pros invest is in identifying/coding/backtesting/live testing strategies and then they are implemented as part of an automated trading system. These desks are running all sorts of strategies at any given time. Maybe some part discretionary/part automated. You need the infrastructure, financial backing, IT support, programmer support, and trading support to implement this (in case crazy news drops). You'd be surprised how little edge certain trading firms actually have versus what they claim to have even when doing all of the above (I know from experience). In my opinion machine learning will kill off the vast majority of the remaining intraday trading opportunities for all but the best in the space.

Post: #52

(12-31-2016 01:47 PM)rockoman Wrote:  Don't waste your time.

What value does one create by trading: stocks, bonds and currencies back and forth? None. Therefore, unless certain conditions - given below - are met, the average speculator will not make money.

Sure, there will always be some speculators who do very well. Nassim Taleb makes the point that the success of speculators will always be distributed around a certain average point. Those who do well - for a time - will think that they ae financial geniuses, when they are simply lucky - because someone has to be.

You can do very well in trading if:

1. You consistently have access to inside info ahead of the crowd - think Goldman Sachs.
or
2. You are tight with and have privileged access to policy-makers such as the Fed - think Goldman Sachs.

Since trading is a zero-sum activity and because those who satisfy one or both of the above conditions will accumulate trading profits over time, this implies that all other groups - in the net - will accumulate losses over time. Money is thus systematically redistributed to the pockets of the Insiders.

You make a mistake in assuming that the other side of the trade that "loses money" is operating under the same risk you are. For all you know, they don't consider the edge you gain to be a loss but rather the transaction cost of an immediate execution to fill a specific order in a specific product. Markets are not always efficient.

Post: #53

(01-03-2017 03:50 AM)Razor Beast Wrote:  

(12-28-2016 08:26 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  I´ve traded for a while. And started doing the math. By investing 100k in trading. And making a return of 30% in one year. The return I would get 30k. By dividing this by 12 month. It would be 2500$/month. To earn this I would have to spend 8-10h/day monitoring the market, news, checking company metrics.

So do you need to risk 100k and work 10h/day to earn 2500$/month? With the extra risk of losing the money in a bad decision? Because it´s active income. Passive income would be an index of 5% return.

It didn´t made sense to me.

This is simple logic I made. But can be wrong. Due to inexperience or other reason. It´s only worth it for higher numbers. Most people I know who trade do it for the fun. Like going to a Casino. Or betting in sports. In order to do this professionally I would have to either put up a higher number in the market or manage other people´s money and mine at the same time.

Was told you don´t create wealth in the stock market. Only accumulate.

The difference is the time the pros invest is in identifying/coding/backtesting/live testing strategies and then they are implemented as part of an automated trading system. These desks are running all sorts of strategies at any given time. Maybe some part discretionary/part automated. You need the infrastructure, financial backing, IT support, programmer support, and trading support to implement this (in case crazy news drops). You'd be surprised how little edge certain trading firms actually have versus what they claim to have even when doing all of the above (I know from experience). In my opinion machine learning will kill off the vast majority of the remaining intraday trading opportunities for all but the best in the space.

I´m not saying trading can´t be profitable. It can. In the long run have serious doubts.The trader would have to be a machine. But even in the short/medium run you need a lot of money/equity for it to compensate the effort/risk. And this equity cannot in average be formed/earned from the stock market. It needs to be earned somewhere else (for me it´s real estate).

Imagine you start off with 1k. You make 100%. You made 1k profit. In order for you to make 100% either though computers or yourself you will need to be brilliant or very lucky. And for consistently making 100% you need to be a fucking genius. A Michael Jordan or a Tiger Woods. You will have to have a level of error few people on earth have.

For you to transform 1k into 10k we´re talking about 1000% profit. If it´s possible. Sure it can. 1K into 100k that´s what? 10000%. But my opinion only 0,001% of people can do it. If you have only 1K your better spending it somewhere else. Probably making an excel course, programming or getting a license for some business activity.

[b]Now with 1M that´s a different ball game. You make 100% in 1M you earn 1M. You make 1% out of the 1M that´s 10K. You see the difference.
For a guy with 1M he only has to sweat 1% to make the equivalent of 1000% for someone with 1K.
[/b]

As for programming I think it´s somehow related to the theory of games. Last time I read about this (10 years ago) it was still limited to 4 players.

Post: #54

(12-25-2016 04:11 PM)jj90 Wrote:  Trading is absolutely real. With that said, it has a >95% failure rate.

Trading has evolved over the years: you are not going to find many point and click traders behind screens anymore. Most successful traders are quantitative or have a deep fundamental understanding of a market.

The real traders also won't be posting on twitter or stocktwits and etc. In fact, you can't even get a hold of them. Try calling up a big name hedge fund manager and see if you can get them out for coffee. Real traders are working, like everyone else.

This is so on the money.

Real traders are a different breed.

5% succeed in this business.

Post: #55

(01-03-2017 07:09 AM)chakalaka Wrote:  

(01-03-2017 03:50 AM)Razor Beast Wrote:  

(12-28-2016 08:26 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  I´ve traded for a while. And started doing the math. By investing 100k in trading. And making a return of 30% in one year. The return I would get 30k. By dividing this by 12 month. It would be 2500$/month. To earn this I would have to spend 8-10h/day monitoring the market, news, checking company metrics.

So do you need to risk 100k and work 10h/day to earn 2500$/month? With the extra risk of losing the money in a bad decision? Because it´s active income. Passive income would be an index of 5% return.

It didn´t made sense to me.

This is simple logic I made. But can be wrong. Due to inexperience or other reason. It´s only worth it for higher numbers. Most people I know who trade do it for the fun. Like going to a Casino. Or betting in sports. In order to do this professionally I would have to either put up a higher number in the market or manage other people´s money and mine at the same time.

Was told you don´t create wealth in the stock market. Only accumulate.

The difference is the time the pros invest is in identifying/coding/backtesting/live testing strategies and then they are implemented as part of an automated trading system. These desks are running all sorts of strategies at any given time. Maybe some part discretionary/part automated. You need the infrastructure, financial backing, IT support, programmer support, and trading support to implement this (in case crazy news drops). You'd be surprised how little edge certain trading firms actually have versus what they claim to have even when doing all of the above (I know from experience). In my opinion machine learning will kill off the vast majority of the remaining intraday trading opportunities for all but the best in the space.

I´m not saying trading can´t be profitable. It can. In the long run have serious doubts.The trader would have to be a machine. But even in the short/medium run you need a lot of money/equity for it to compensate the effort/risk. And this equity cannot in average be formed/earned from the stock market. It needs to be earned somewhere else (for me it´s real estate).

Imagine you start off with 1k. You make 100%. You made 1k profit. In order for you to make 100% either though computers or yourself you will need to be brilliant or very lucky. And for consistently making 100% you need to be a fucking genius. A Michael Jordan or a Tiger Woods. You will have to have a level of error few people on earth have.

For you to transform 1k into 10k we´re talking about 1000% profit. If it´s possible. Sure it can. 1K into 100k that´s what? 10000%. But my opinion only 0,001% of people can do it. If you have only 1K your better spending it somewhere else. Probably making an excel course, programming or getting a license for some business activity.

[b]Now with 1M that´s a different ball game. You make 100% in 1M you earn 1M. You make 1% out of the 1M that´s 10K. You see the difference.
For a guy with 1M he only has to sweat 1% to make the equivalent of 1000% for someone with 1K.
[/b]

As for programming I think it´s somehow related to the theory of games. Last time I read about this (10 years ago) it was still limited to 4 players.

Yeah that was my point in my first posts. If you have a good scalable strategy with huge financial backing you can still make real good money taking a cut of the profits. But most people don't bring strategies into firms because it's hard to understand how they think and create without working for one. If anyone had solid strategies with a track record they would start their own firm and solicit backing themselves once they developed the knowledge. A lot of smart young people starting out in this industry get stuck in really bad one sided deals at some of these firms (not knowing any better when they have no experience or desperate to get a foot in the door - senior traders know this and take advantage of them in this regard) which really limits your career progression ability.

Screen edge is not anything like pit edge. Pit edge could take you from low 5 figures to 7 figures in time in the past once you paid your dues. The financial barriers to entry and breadth of knowledge required to succeed as an electronic trader make it far more difficult.

Post: #56

The trading landscape has significantly changed over the last 20-30 years, back in the day there was no computers and guys would just run around with newspapers and trade on news back in the 60s and 70s. That's back when there was trading floors, now it's all automated with desks, the average guy can't just pick up a few books and run some statistics and figure out trading patterns. A spread of a few basis points its going to be taken out real quick because trading desks at the big banks have entire teams to find arbitrage opportunities. I don't know how the average "trader" who doesn't have work at a big bank or firm like jane street makes it especially when the traders at these desks have access to massive leverage and second by second market data streaming from bloomberg and capitalIQ with phone calls to other people in the industry.

Post: #57

Having read the comments, it looks like most of you don't really know much about trading. I am a full-time trader. Let me clarify.

1) Yes, traders make money. You only hear about the ones who loose a lot of money or make a shit load of money in the news. It's because they sell papers.

In reality, trading is a boring job. It's a waiting game. You wait, wait and wait for your setups to materialize and profit off it.

2) I am what you call a 'consistent' trader. My last losing month was august 2015. You'll never hear about guys like me because I don't advertise my money. In fact, most of my friends think I make 50k or something. LMAO, losers! It's good for me tbh.

Based on my projections I should hit the million mark by the end of 2018.

3) Most people are incapable of putting in the effort required to be a trader. They are attracted to fast money and cruise orgies so they get what they deserve..nothing.

To put it simple, a trader is a whore. Market will fuck you so hard once in a while that you probably cannot sleep for a few days. Not me. I humbly get fucked and accept my loss. The next day , I trade as if nothing happened. This is why I make money. Most people get emotional and lose their mind.

Hope I clarified. Hit me up for any question. Don't know if I might read the replies to this thread or not.

Post: #58

When I first started trading/investing I made some good money by sheer stupid luck because I had no idea what I was doing, but because of sheer stupid ignorance I lost a lot of money as well, and the pain of losing a lot of money is way worse than the joy of making money, now I'm between the stage of realizing how much there is that I don't know but starting to grasp a bit of the iceberg. It's funny but it's actually more difficult for me to pull the trigger on a trade now than it was when I didn't know anything.

Post: #59

(12-31-2016 01:47 PM)rockoman Wrote:  Don't waste your time.

What value does one create by trading: stocks, bonds and currencies back and forth? None. Therefore, unless certain conditions - given below - are met, the average speculator will not make money.

Sure, there will always be some speculators who do very well. Nassim Taleb makes the point that the success of speculators will always be distributed around a certain average point. Those who do well - for a time - will think that they ae financial geniuses, when they are simply lucky - because someone has to be.

You can do very well in trading if:

1. You consistently have access to inside info ahead of the crowd - think Goldman Sachs.
or
2. You are tight with and have privileged access to policy-makers such as the Fed - think Goldman Sachs.

Since trading is a zero-sum activity and because those who satisfy one or both of the above conditions will accumulate trading profits over time, this implies that all other groups - in the net - will accumulate losses over time. Money is thus systematically redistributed to the pockets of the Insiders.

The mere fact that so many people currently think that they can make a living by trading financial securities is an indication of how far this financial bubble has gone - since the gold convertibilty of the dollar was suspended in 1971. Look at all financial manias of the past for a comparison.

The world in the long-run will not be fooled. If you cannot create value for others, then you will receive no value, unless you are either lucky or powerful.

ROFLMAO.

Post: #60

Yes, there are professional traders out there. I know many and sometimes I bounce ideas off of them, and they do the same for me.

I'm more of a professional gambler than a trader, but sometimes I do stock and option trades when the market does something absolutely retarded and gives essentially free money away, or offers too much reward for the underlying risk and gives me an undue edge.

No, you will not likely succeed in being one, nor would I recommend trying unless you can adopt, at the very minimum, a similar mindset that tapthatass has. Which is being able to stay unemotional during the situations where you do everything right and get fucked anyway just because.

Post: #61

(12-25-2016 10:36 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  I lost two small fortunes 30-40k
And had to return to work because of it.
I saved up another small pile and now invest instead of trade.

I read the average trader blows up his account in 8 months. That's about what happened to me.

I ro do leveraged investing but i buybthe mist conservative hi yield socks i can find: nursing homes. OHI SNR CCP and the more conservative mreits like stwd

No ones getting younger in usa and with 25k
I can make about 300 dollars a month in dividends . I make a point to avoid market timing and buy on dips and basically never sell. Those reits are held by big pension funds ajd i dont want the headaches ajd trying to time. I think interactive brokers is essential because their margin rates are only about 1.6 right now and the stocks pay 7-9% so i pocket the difference without trading. Overtrading is the biggest money losing action i believe, but brokers of course won't tell you that

I read

Nice, where are you getting 300$ a month dividends on 25k?

Post: #62

(01-07-2017 10:13 AM)tapthatass Wrote:  Having read the comments, it looks like most of you don't really know much about trading. I am a full-time trader. Let me clarify.

1) Yes, traders make money. You only hear about the ones who loose a lot of money or make a shit load of money in the news. It's because they sell papers.

In reality, trading is a boring job. It's a waiting game. You wait, wait and wait for your setups to materialize and profit off it.

2) I am what you call a 'consistent' trader. My last losing month was august 2015. You'll never hear about guys like me because I don't advertise my money. In fact, most of my friends think I make 50k or something. LMAO, losers! It's good for me tbh.

Based on my projections I should hit the million mark by the end of 2018.

3) Most people are incapable of putting in the effort required to be a trader. They are attracted to fast money and cruise orgies so they get what they deserve..nothing.

To put it simple, a trader is a whore. Market will fuck you so hard once in a while that you probably cannot sleep for a few days. Not me. I humbly get fucked and accept my loss. The next day , I trade as if nothing happened. This is why I make money. Most people get emotional and lose their mind.

Hope I clarified. Hit me up for any question. Don't know if I might read the replies to this thread or not.

I guess you've done the true and tested way a lot of traders make $ trade something boring and scrape up nickels but do it 1000000x. It makes way more sense that the majority of traders make money off the small stuff than the giant scores in real life. A few pips here and there, rinse and repeat instead of hunting for the big risky score.

Post: #63

Few pips here and there is a very bad strategy. Reason? Limited profit and unlimited risk.

I used to think the same when I first began trading. 10 here , 10 there ..so on. It's pretty easy right? No!

1)It forced me to sit through charts all day waiting for setups, which is bad for your long term health.
2)When trading a small time-frame, large moves are very frequent especially during the NY open. You might take a pretty large loss very quickly and probably wipe away two days worth of profits
3) You might get whipsawed pretty easily. Damages your sanity if it happens. ( Whipsaw: Price touches your stop loss and then again goes back in your original profit direction)

The only way is to carefully pick your fights with the market so that the odds are in your favor.

Post: #64

(12-25-2016 01:05 PM)Pinocchio Wrote:  It's a negative sum game when you take into account fees and spreads. I'm sure some people manage to beat it long term but there wont be many. My friend works on the FX sales desk for a major bank and says ai trading is killing it now.

Exactly. You can't beat the FX AIs and any leverage in that market will slaughter you.