Post: #26

The stocks I hold that are out of Berkshire Hathaway holdings are in the green, the rest of my trades are in the red.

Holding on to an index fund is a waste, your gains become entirely dependent on the growth of the economy of a whole. If you bought a dow index fund 10 years ago, today you are only slightly in the green. There is a good chance that a decade from now, your money with be right at the same point.

What I've been doing is sticking with dividend paying stocks (almost everything Berkshire Hathaway holds is dividend paying), and buying companies likely to be acquired (despite the economy plenty of companies are loaded with cash.) In theory gold is attractive, but in practice you are entirely dependent on selling it to someone else, there is no end user. I can't calculate gold's value and I don't think anyone else can so I don't buy it. That said, I would expect it to make it to $2k an ounce.

Post: #27

Contrary prediction: the dollar is going to be stable or even rise on Monday.

Post: #28

(08-05-2011 05:08 PM)Roosh Wrote:  I'm making a killing with CEF (gold fund). I bought 400 shares in 2008. It has doubled in price since then.

The rest of my money is in cash or government bond ETFs, which have been pretty flat this year. I have a lot of cash sitting in my accounts earning no interest and I'm find with that.

Why not put your money in 5-year CD with Ally bank? The rate as of today is 2.27% and there is only a 60-day interest penalty for early withdrawal. Average savings account pay less than 1%. Not a big dealfor a $1000 savings, but $100000 and you're losing a lot of money by letting money sit in a standard savings.

Post: #29

(08-05-2011 02:25 AM)K-man Wrote:  It's been just brutal. Market overall not that bad, down 10-15% overall, but my portfolio is way more than 2x that, what with margin and options...
Personally for me it's worse than 2008.

And funniest thing is, people are getting out of stocks and scrambling to buy T-bills for their perceived safety, accepting 2% yield on the 10-year note. This when the budget deficit is 25% and the printing presses are being warmed up. While stocks are in pretty decent shape actually, with corporate balance sheets way better than the government one, and the income statements showing record profits.

Ouch. Any time I use margin and it's not purely for a day trade, I absolutely have a stop loss in place. I highly recommend you consider always, ALWAYS using a stop loss to protect yourself on the down side.

Post: #30

Oh well. I had never in 10-15 years let margin rise above 20-30% of my portfolio, that way you always have a cushion and don't have to liquidate at the lows.
However, this time my main holding got bad luck (water in one of their oil wells), another had a bad day too, and this combined with the general market activity of the past two weeks is what did me in.
Still, not all is lost. I've known people who lost everything back in 2008 and 2000.
Hard to make it back, but not impossible. We'll see how the next few weeks go.

Roosh, have you not switched some of your assets to EUR? It seems like you might be staying in Europe for a while so your expenses will be in EUR and it may make sense to have your assets in EUR too. And you income perhaps? Are we going to see books at €10 instead of $10?

Post: #31

Thanks Smitty I'll look into that.

Dollar is going up: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=w

Most of my books are sold to Americans, so they will always be priced in dollars. I have some holdings in the Yen and Swiss Franc, but I'm no more confident about the Euro than the dollar. Europe is in just as much trouble as we are. The finance blogs are talking about how Italy is on the verge of imploding.

Post: #32

QE3 may be announced tomorrow, and that would explain the rise in gold perfectly.

I wish I had some cash to buy some silver $50 calls....

Post: #33

This is fugly, SPX down -6.66% the number of the beast.

Post: #34

(08-08-2011 08:44 AM)Roosh Wrote:  Europe is in just as much trouble as we are. The finance blogs are talking about how Italy is on the verge of imploding.

My prediction is the Euro zone starts to shed weaker members (greece is the first to go). There is another global recession coming (and it feels like we never left the last one) and the stronger euro nations simply cannot afford to bail out the weaker. They've all been around for 1,000 years so they are very well aware of Darwinism. There is no rise together, fall together shit in Europe. At the end of the day, Germany will say fuck off to Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece. The German citizens are already pissed from the bailout money they spent. Similar to the U.S. TARP fund and Stimulus. Think Obama can get another stimulus through? No chance in hell. Same in Europe -- no chance in hell they sustain this bailout of weaker states.
Get ready...'cause it's coming.

Post: #35

Fed holds short-term rates to mid-2013... Sets up the stage for a QE3 announcement later on. They have not announced QE3 yet, to make it seem like they aren't panicking.

Dollar rally won't last too long, these announcements are only bearish for the dollar longer term.

Gold has gone up too much way too fast, I'd wait for a pull back before buying some more. Who knows it could hit 2000 before a real meaningful pull back. If I do get in it will be after I get in on some other things...

In the mean time there are still some good deals on some mining stocks, energy has gotten hit hard maybe a good time to look at some good investments in energy. Silver is looking better now, since the gold/silver ratio has increased.

Looking to buy some swiss franc bonds sometime this year, with all this stuff going on the Franc has only one way to go long term. Unfortunately this dollar rally isn't making the franc any cheaper, but I'll dive in anyway. It be nice to collect some interest in francs.

I'm making a killing on my gold related options...

Post: #36

Quote:Dollar rally won't last too long, these announcements are only bearish for the dollar longer term.

I agree with this. In the 2008 crisis the dollar shot through the moon. On Monday, when it should have done the same, it barely went up. I think the dollar will continue to gradually decline.

What's a good basket of currencies for medium-term (2-5 years)? Yen and Franc? I don't trust the Euro.

Post: #37

[quote='Roosh' pid='80171' dateline='1312940357']
[quote]
What's a good basket of currencies for medium-term (2-5 years)? Yen and Franc? I don't trust the Euro.
[/quote]

Franc is solid... If I had any basket I would be overweight francs.

Canadian Dollar and Australian - They're governments are not perfect, but they're resource rich, and the countries have better fundamentals then the EU and U.S.

Chinese Renminbi - Only reason it's not shooting up is because of China's peg to the dollar... they're having to go through very high inflation just to keep this peg... it won't last forever... when they depeg, you're going to want to own this one.

Singapore Dollar

Other notable mentions:
Swedish Krona
Brazilian Real

I'd stick with the top 5 but concentrate on accumulating francs.

I'd add to that that I would take advantage of dollar rallies to convert to other currencies.

Post: #38

Wow.

Steep selloff today.

This is getting bloody.

Post: #39

What about short selling???

We all knew the markets were going down this week.

Post: #40

"What about short selling???"

More fun to jump into a lake with a adult male hippo.

If you short on the wrong day, you get ripped to shreds.

Post: #41

Stock market is too volatile and complex for me. Well, put it this way im not gonna invest the massive time needed to completely understand the stock market and what makes it tick.

Once I get back from teaching in Asian and Latin America im putting all my money in the real estate game.

Post: #42

I don't much about this. I seems like every time something bad happens, the markets goes down.

Credit rating downgraded
terror attack/riots
negative world news

Couldn't you time this correctly sometimes? For example:

The minute the US credit score got downgraded. We knew the markets were going down the next day. Couldn't you short sell the very next day.

OR

The minute those planes hit the Twin Towers. We knew the markets were going down. Couldn't you have sold the markets short on September 12th, 2001???

Keep your response brief, I am very much a layperson with this.

All I know is buy low and sell high.

The next time something bad happens, I'm gonna short sell. But, I know its not really that simple, so, I will probably lose money and then come back here to report what I learned. Ha

Post: #43

(08-10-2011 05:59 PM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  "What about short selling???"

More fun to jump into a lake with a adult male hippo.

If you short on the wrong day, you get ripped to shreds.

That's why it's important to set a stop loss on every single trade you make. I cannot imagine shorting a stock without limiting my risk. Pick a number based on your goal, don't get greedy and cut your losses short with an automatic trade.

Post: #44

(08-10-2011 08:54 PM)Smitty Wrote:  That's why it's important to set a stop loss on every single trade you make. I cannot imagine shorting a stock without limiting my risk. Pick a number based on your goal, don't get greedy and cut your losses short with an automatic trade.

I hope you do realize that your broker and the exchanges make money by selling real-time info about your stop orders (and other investors') to the program traders, who then proceed to take the spot on a wild up-and-down ride so your stop gets taken out. Witness the wide swings these past couple of weeks.

Post: #45

(08-05-2011 08:42 PM)Luckystar Wrote:  If you guys are into gold, silver, etc...you should pay attention to Jim Rogers. Generally regarded as the world's foremost expert on such commodities. I remember him saying in 2008, gold will near or reach $2000. At the moment, he is saying it is not a good time to get into gold.

As you may recall in May of this year when COMEX, which is the metal division of the NYMEX, increased its margin requirements silver fell sharply after hitting 50 dollars an ounce. I think that buying inverse ETF for gold would be a good short term play as it is going to go through a correction as it is spiking in the mania stage.

I want to let you know that playing the VIX would be a good way to make sharp gains. Just make sure you get in the middle of a short covering rally and you will be set to make good gains. Remember to pump and dump this one as you must buy for very short term.

Post: #46

(08-10-2011 06:12 PM)Giovonny Wrote:  I don't much about this. I seems like every time something bad happens, the markets goes down.

Credit rating downgraded
terror attack/riots
negative world news

Couldn't you time this correctly sometimes? For example:

The minute the US credit score got downgraded. We knew the markets were going down the next day. Couldn't you short sell the very next day.

OR

The minute those planes hit the Twin Towers. We knew the markets were going down. Couldn't you have sold the markets short on September 12th, 2001???

Keep your response brief, I am very much a layperson with this.

All I know is buy low and sell high.

The next time something bad happens, I'm gonna short sell. But, I know its not really that simple, so, I will probably lose money and then come back here to report what I learned. Ha

Even with the downgrade of the US debt and the current sovereign debt crisis, this one looks more like the March 2011 correction more than a 2008 Lehman debacle. With this much having fallen, I would be afraid to short them market as the markets should rebound soon and I doubt we will see the Dow Jones Industrial Average go below 10,000. A broad based panic would be the kind where precious metals would have fallen in tandem with the rest of the major indexes, and this is not the case. I would suggest buying silver as it is currently lagging gold. If the markets tank further, silver will hold its ground or go up slightly, and if the markets do poise for a rebound, silver as a industrial metal will go up in value and inflationary fears as a result of some QE3, which is needed for a rebound, will drive silver upward. I therefore think the precious metal play in this cenerio is the best bet.

Post: #47

I think we have a reached a point where we are starting to see very good opportunities.
I would play EUR/CHF higher once a solution is found in Europe (something reliable not like the EFSF which can't even work)

I'm waiting the right moment to buy Financial Stocks such as BNP / CreditAgr or SocGen which have been hit very hard(-15% yesterday -8% today for SocGen) on rumours of possible French loss of AAA rating and other internal rumours. This one was trading above 50 in February and is at 20 right now.

Repsol is also on my sight with objective at 25€

Just once the fears of double dip or recession are gone there will be very good opportunities with very low PER !

Post: #48

Hey G - I called this sh*t. This is the liquidation to give the FED cover for QE3. Gold and silver to protect your holdings. I've been sitting in cash, precious metals and I sold off some of my shorts.

Shorting stocks is risky, but one way to go that allows for a quick entry and exit is to use 'inverse etfs'. Some examples are EDZ, SPXU, TZA, etc. Read up on them first.

Post: #49

It will be true that people are getting out of stocks and scrambling to buy T-bills for their perceived safety

Post: #50

(08-10-2011 06:07 PM)Dash Global Wrote:  Once I get back from teaching in Asian and Latin America im putting all my money in the real estate game.

Do your homework.

This is my area of expertise.

What aspect of investing?

Investing in real estate is like investing in the stock market. There are so many different ways to invest.

First thing is LEARN A PARTICULAR LOCAL SUB-MARKET INSIDE AND OUT.

The get rich quick days in RE are gone. There is still money to be made, however. Patience and discipline are essential.