Post: #1

Here's a story to watch:

Quote: If the “no” vote wins, Renzi has promised to resign. This would throw Italy into a political crisis. Then there would be a real potential to elect parties that would call for a vote on whether to stay in the European Union. And at this point, it is not clear what the Italians would decide to do.

The European Monetary Union does not work very well, if at all, without Italy. A “no” vote would be the death knell of the euro.

Nick Andrews, who writes for my friends at Gavekal, gives an excellent summary of the situation in Italy. And, it is worth every bit of your attention.

Nick Andrews Wrote:Prime ministers come and go in Italy—four since the financial crisis—but precious little seems to change. The latest incumbent, Matteo Renzi, has pursued structural reform more energetically than his predecessors. But for all the progress he has made, he might as well have been wading through molasses. Now, in a bid to secure a popular mandate for his restructuring program, Renzi has bet his premiership on a referendum over badly-needed constitutional reforms. It is a high stakes gamble. If Renzi wins the vote, which is due in either October or November, his proposed measures will streamline Italy’s legislative process, breaking the parliamentary gridlock which has crippled successive governments, and opening the way to far-reaching economic reforms. If he loses, Renzi has promised to step down—a pledge that has turned the referendum into a popular vote of confidence in the unelected prime minister, his Europhile policies, and—by extension—Italy’s membership of the eurozone itself. As a result, a “no” vote in October will not just precipitate the fall of Renzi’s government; it could throw Italy’s long-term membership of the eurozone into doubt, plunging the single currency area once again into crisis.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/...2b419111da

Post: #2

The Italians voting to leave the EU? Will never happen. Their country, its banks, currency and policies are aligned with the EU too much, unlike the UK.

Its Greece 2.0.

Post: #3

(09-03-2016 12:49 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  The Italians voting to leave the EU? Will never happen. Their country, its banks, currency and policies are aligned with the EU too much, unlike the UK.

Its Greece 2.0.

Agreed. Numbers wise they are just as bad as Greece but Italy is a much bigger piece of the Eurozone, with the core countries having large exposure to Italian debts. France especially is nearing 300 billion Euros of exposure.

I think also relevant is the Italian banking crisis lurking in the shadows as any bail-outs or bail-ins will certainly have an effect on voter sentiment. Lost in the noise created by the Brexit is the Italian debt ticking time bomb.

Quote:As a result of all this, an Italian government led by the 5 Star Movement might plausibly go into negotiations with its Eurozone counterparts believing that it holds the trump card—namely the threat of a referendum on Eurozone membership. This would make it difficult for the Eurozone to play hardball with Italy or kick the can down the road. Policy makers would thus be left with the unenviable choice of either calling Italy’s bluff, and potentially sparking a regional or even global financial crisis, or fast-tracking integration plans and sanctioning greater burden-sharing. The electoral cycle in the region will further raise the stakes. While the French government might be happy to agree to greater burden-sharing, such a deal would be political suicide for Chancellor Merkel in the build up to the German federal elections in 2017.

Black swan: Although one thing Italy has that the other PIIGS don't is the 4th largest gold holdings in the world @ 2450 tons. In extremis (say after a force majeure on debt) they may just be arrogant enough to thumb their noses at Brussels and peg a new Lira to those reserves.

Post: #4

Italy is completely different from Greece and it is entirely possible that they could leave the Eurozone. Northern Italy is heavily industrialized, but the country's economy has been stagnant since it joined the Euro because it's currency is now overpriced. The government's finances are stable but Italy suffering a banking crisis due to 15 years of lousy economic.

Italy has been the biggest loser of the Eurozone and at best Italians are ambivalent about the single currency. I wouldn't be surprised if they vote to leave it in the near future.

Post: #5

Does anybody know how it would work to peg the lira to the 2450 tons of.gold that Adonis referred to. I calculate this is worth about $100 billion, but given Italy's $1.8 trillion GDP, and a monetary velocity around 2, their money supply should be closer to $700 billion.

When you peg a currency to gold, instead of doing fiat money, does the gold reserve have to be 1:1 with the money supply, or do they have more money circulating than the amount of gold backing it?

Post: #6

(09-03-2016 04:43 PM)da_zeb Wrote:  Italy is completely different from Greece and it is entirely possible that they could leave the Eurozone. Northern Italy is heavily industrialized, but the country's economy has been stagnant since it joined the Euro because it's currency is now overpriced. The government's finances are stable but Italy suffering a banking crisis due to 15 years of lousy economic.

Italy has been the biggest loser of the Eurozone and at best Italians are ambivalent about the single currency. I wouldn't be surprised if they vote to leave it in the near future.

Italians won't do a thing. EU politicians are the same breed and want their money. The Greeks threatened revolt if they were lied to and what happened?

Their politicians kept them in the EU with yet more promises and a triple generation debt owed to some uber bankers nobody knows about.

If countries in the EU want change then it must come as a collective.

I feel there is something we don't yet know or are ignoring. What force of will is keeping all of these countries together when there is so much evidence to counter any pro-EU argument out there?

It is a combination of money and power but it would take so damn long to string it all together.

Post: #7

As we get closer to the vote, do our Italian members have any sense how this might be going?

Post: #8

(09-03-2016 08:08 PM)Foolsgo1d Wrote:  

(09-03-2016 04:43 PM)da_zeb Wrote:  

I feel there is something we don't yet know or are ignoring. What force of will is keeping all of these countries together when there is so much evidence to counter any pro-EU argument out there?

Seems to me there are very, very obvious reasons to share a currency and unite. The area where they are messing up in not having representation in the Eu government, which results in "taxation without representation." An example of this is all the invaders coming to Italy with the hopes of getting to Germany. This results in lack of a veto power over a crazy policy in one country ( Germany's open borders policy) by other saner countries. Germany essentially opened the borders of all the EU countries by unilaterally declaring it will accept invaders. There was no chance for Italy or Greece to say "Wait! we are screwed if you do that!!"

-- The example of the power of the USA is one. A big powerful union of any kind can benefit the members. No one can dream of militarily invading the USA ( although of course geographics play a part ) so that changes all discussion with that entity if you cannot intimidate them.

-- Simple nuts and bolts of trade. If trade is beneficial and Germany's sending cars to France and France wine to Germany it makes bookkeeping a lot easier.

-- Prevention of ghastly atrocities like WW2. The more trade and trust are embedded longer, the less likely demagogues can paint another country as an enemy.

--Turkey is in a national psychosis, and I'm guessing it has effectively aborted it's possible membership. This is good and serves another good purpose of EU, which is to to some degree (if they wise up) to support Christianity's self-defense against the scriptural mandated aggression of Islam.

From what I've read the changes which will allow more decisive decision making in government is losing in the polls.
However, my guess is they will NOT leave the EU. You can see my posts from a few years ago saying Greece will not leave the EU and will not have a civil war, and so far I am right. Greek Kamaki was adamant it would all fall apart and was wrong so far. Appealing to the future is a weak debating tactic. If someone is claiming "I will be proven right!", it means as of yet they have not.

Cultural memory is longer in Europe, you see the old buildings all around you, and are reminded from birth that you are a short link in a long chain of people who've created all that you see. In the USA it's easier to feel important, because all the buildings around you don't look a whole lot older than you, so you feel you can really start and change things.

The centuries of pointless wars in Europe are not forgotten.

Post: #9

(11-23-2016 09:00 AM)RexImperator Wrote:  As we get closer to the vote, do our Italian members have any sense how this might be going?

All indications point the right way with 10 days to go. Only three of 71 polls since the calling of the referendum have indicated a 'yes' vote, not a single one for the past month, and 46 consecutive polls since the 20th of October have predicted 'no'.

https://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sondaggi_s...referendum

Post: #10

(11-23-2016 02:41 PM)iknowexactly Wrote:  -- Simple nuts and bolts of trade. If trade is beneficial and Germany's sending cars to France and France wine to Germany it makes bookkeeping a lot easier.

The kind of free trade that the Eurozone promotes is not beneficial, especially in Italy's case. Even the looniest left - Krugman, for example - admit that some barriers are needed.

Post: #11

Referendum coming up soon.

Italian referendum could trigger economic shock

Quote:It was the one moment that convinced Hitler suicide was better than surrendering.

On the morning of April 29, 1945, the bodies of Italian dictator Benito Mussolini and his mistress were dumped like garbage into Milan’s Piazzale Loreto.

A large mob of Italians quickly gathered. They pelted the former leader’s corpse with vegetables. They spat on it. They urinated on it. Some even emptied their pistols into his lifeless body.

After a few hours, the crowd hung the bodies from a metal girder at a nearby gas station for all to see.


I walked through Piazzale Loreto during a recent trip to Italy, which is suffering its worst economic downturn since 1945. And I realized that Italians are angrier now than they’ve been since they hung Il Duce up by his heels.

Italy has had no productive growth since 1999. Real GDP per person is smaller than it was at the turn of the century.

That’s almost two decades of economic stagnation. By any measure, the Italian economy is in a deep depression. And things will probably get much worse.

It’s no surprise Italians are in a revolutionary mood...

The Five Star Movement (M5S) is Italy’s new populist political party. It’s anti-globalist, anti-euro, and vehemently anti-establishment. It doesn’t neatly fall into the left–right political paradigm.

M5S has become the most popular political party in Italy. It blames the country’s chronic lack of growth on the euro currency. A large plurality of Italians agrees.

M5S has promised to hold a vote to leave the euro and reinstate Italy’s old currency, the lira, as soon as it’s in power. That could be very soon.

Given the chance, Italians probably would vote to return to the lira. If that happens, it would awaken a monetary volcano.

The Financial Times recently put it this way:

An Italian exit from the single currency would trigger the total collapse of the eurozone within a very short period.

It would probably lead to the most violent economic shock in history, dwarfing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the 1929 Wall Street crash.

If the FT is even partially right, it means a stock market crash of historic proportions could be imminent. It could devastate anyone with a brokerage account.

Here’s how it could all happen…

On December 4, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi’s current pro-EU government is holding a referendum on changing Italy’s constitution.

In effect, a “Yes” vote is a vote of approval for Renzi’s government.

A “No” vote is a chance for the average Italian to give the finger to EU bureaucrats in Brussels.

Given the intense anger Italians feel right now, it’s very likely they’ll do just that.

According to the latest polls, the “No” camp has 54% support and all of the momentum. Even prominent members of Renzi’s own party are defecting to the “No” side.

If the December 4 referendum fails, Renzi has promised to resign. Even if he doesn’t, the loss would politically castrate him. In all likelihood his government would collapse. (Italian governments have a short shelf life. There have been 63 since 1945. That’s almost a rate of a new government each year.)

One way or another, M5S will come to power. It’s just a matter of when. If Renzi’s December 4 referendum fails—and it looks like it will—M5S will likely take over within months.

Once it’s in power, M5S will hold a referendum on leaving the euro and returning to the lira. Italians will likely vote to leave.

Italy is the third-largest member of the Eurozone. If it leaves, it will have the psychological effect of yelling “Fire!” in a crowded theater. Other countries—notably France—will quickly head for the exit and return to their national currencies.

Think of the euro as the economic glue holding the EU together. Without it, economic ties weaken, and the whole EU project unravels.

The EU is the world’s largest economy. If it collapses, it would trigger an unprecedented global stock market crash. That’s how important Italy’s December 4 referendum is. It would be the first domino to fall.

December 4 referendum fails >> M5S comes to power >> Italians vote to leave the euro currency >> European Union collapses

Almost no one else is talking about this. That’s why I just spent several weeks in Italy, taking the pulse of the country.

Italy’s December 4 referendum could make or break your wealth this year. If it fails, the EU, which has the world’s largest economy, will likely fall apart… triggering an epic stock market crash.

Wiki: 2016 Italian referendum
WSJ Coverage
Reuters coverage

Post: #12

Any trackers that we can see the referendum in real time?

Post: #13

(12-04-2016 04:00 PM)Ivanis Wrote:  Any trackers that we can see the referendum in real time?

Not for another hour yet (23:00 Italian time). There's a media blackout by law until polls close.

Post: #14

First exit poll shows a very strong 'no', and it's worth noting that turnout was very high (record-breaking in a few regions):

Post: #15

RENZI LOST!

Post: #16

Expect carnage tomorrow morning when the Euro markets open. The end of the beginning.

Post: #17

Can anybody give a real basic breakdown on what this Italy referendum is about?

Post: #18

(12-04-2016 05:34 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  Can anybody give a real basic breakdown on what this Italy referendum is about?

Prime Minister Renzi (leftist, pro-EU) proposed certain changes to the constitution (reduce the number of senators, change rules for passing laws, etc.). He also pledged to resign if the changes weren't approved in a referendum. So the new, anti-establishment party (5-star movement) campaigned for a 'no' vote on the basis that it would topple the government and make way for early parliamentary elections.

Should 5-star win, they've promised to hold a referendum on Italy dropping the Euro currency. As the Euro has always been deeply unpopular in Italy, they're likely to win that referendum, and that would be another major blow for the EU and globalisation.

Post: #19

Latest results have 'no' winning with 58-60% of the vote on 68% turnout. That's huge!

Post: #20

(12-04-2016 05:34 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  Can anybody give a real basic breakdown on what this Italy referendum is about?

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi basically represents the establishment and he's cozy with the globalists as well as Merkel and co. Why do you think Italy is allowing a constant flood of boats to dump migrants on Southern Italy's shores?

Anyway, the Vaffanculo movement has gained steam over the past few years and they opposed today's referendum which would have shifted the power base to one house only instead of two (right now it's comparable to that of the U.S. - but not the same).

Today's NO is a FUCK YOU to Renzi and he promised to resign if it got rejected. He's probably going to do just that in the coming hour or so. If he has any integrity whatsoever but heck, he's an Italian politician and our mileage varies here.

The EUR/USD is dropping like a rock right now and this was a big hit to the Euro project as it's expected that the nationalists are going to take over Italy in the next election (which again may come sooner than later if Renzi resigns).

Hope this covers it in a nutshell. I'm not Italian and some of our Italian members may be able to shed a better light on the situation. Please feel free to point out any errors in my write up, I have not followed this very closely.

Post: #21

Renzi has just resigned. That is a huge defeat for the pro-Euro government but he made the mistake to personalize the referendum of the reform really bad written. Response also given to the bad government and horrible management of the migrant crisis. Happy that the Italians have not let them modifying the Constitution after 70 years, it was written after the second world war and is still basis for the civilization of the country. Had the mood that NO would have won already a few weeks ago, since almost all my Italian friends were voting against the reform.

Post: #22

RENXIT!

Another Globalist takes it in the pooper.

Post: #23

(12-04-2016 06:36 PM)Giacomo Casanova Wrote:  Renzi has just resigned.

Not so fast.
Italy has never worked like a normal country.
"Resignations" in Italy are not always final, and are not always what they seem.

Renzi's resignation needs to be presented to (and accepted by) the Italian president, who then has final say over what happens next.
The president can easily ask Renzi to form another reshuffled government with new cabinet ministers and Renzi stays in power with no new elections. This has often happened in Italy's post war history.

We won't know what will really happen until the Italian president decides if he wants a new prime minister and/or new elections.
The president could easily maneuver things in such a way that there are no new elections in Italy until the current term expires in May 2018.

Post: #24

   

Post: #25

(12-04-2016 06:16 PM)redpillage Wrote:  

(12-04-2016 05:34 PM)Jaydublin Wrote:  Can anybody give a real basic breakdown on what this Italy referendum is about?

Prime Minister Matteo Renzi basically represents the establishment and he's cozy with the globalists as well as Merkel and co. Why do you think Italy is allowing a constant flood of boats to dump migrants on Southern Italy's shores?

Anyway, the Vaffanculo movement has gained steam over the past few years and they opposed today's referendum which would have shifted the power base to one house only instead of two (right now it's comparable to that of the U.S. - but not the same).

Today's NO is a FUCK YOU to Renzi and he promised to resign if it got rejected. He's probably going to do just that in the coming hour or so. If he has any integrity whatsoever but heck, he's an Italian politician and our mileage varies here.

The EUR/USD is dropping like a rock right now and this was a big hit to the Euro project as it's expected that the nationalists are going to take over Italy in the next election (which again may come sooner than later if Renzi resigns).

Hope this covers it in a nutshell. I'm not Italian and some of our Italian members may be able to shed a better light on the situation. Please feel free to point out any errors in my write up, I have not followed this very closely.

Yeah it seems like the referendum was a clumsy attempt to rebalance the political scale in favour if the incumbent globalists by redistributing power between the house and the senate (or something like that). Most mainstream articles don't really go into it, oddly enough.

Stuff 'er in yer jocks, globalist pigs. There's a man going 'round taking names.