Post: #1376

(03-10-2019 01:20 AM)Latinopan Wrote:  I was refereeing to the idea of Chinese, Russian military intervention in Venezuela. No matter how much China or Russia supports Venezuela the idea of any of them having any military presence in Latin America is dumb and they know it, there is also the problem that it could backfire hard on Maduro. Not matter how much close the governments are, the Venezuelans don't see China of Russia as having good intentions, any military intervention from them will make Venezuelans even more anti Maduro and even make them see USA as better option.

How many bases does the US have in Asia and Europe? I don't see the Chinese or Russians needing to go that far. They simply partner up. Russia has sent some "military advisers" already. They could end up drilling together the way the US and South Korea do, which wouldn't be any more ridiculous than the US and South Korea running joint wargames every year.

Lumping "Venezualans" together as a single opinion bloc is dangerous. Yes, a large number of Venezuelands hate Maduro, viscerally. But Venezuela is a democratic country and those Maduro voters come out for the counter protests.

Maduro is more popular in Venezuela than Obama, Trump, Macron, or Merkel ever were.

Remember the average person sucks and half the population is even worse! But if you start weighting people by their abilities and accomplishments, that is Undemocratic!!! No, way democracies "fix" the inadequacy of the people is armed military interventions after the election, because no way those people actually meant to vote for that guy.

I suspect a lot of the pressure for military intervention on the US side is anxiety that eventually the green feminist bloc is going to voted enough power in the US to deindustrialize, like Argentina. History is not necessarily controlling precedent in the common law sense, but it is instructive.

(03-10-2019 07:50 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  China and Russia don't have to put troops in Venezuela to keep Uncle Sam out.

They probably let Trump know that if he starts fucking around in there then the rebels are going to mysteriously get their hands on a large quantity of untraceable single-production-run ground-to-ground and ground-to-air missiles.

China in particular is capable of that now. They could have resistance fighters swimming in that kind of hardware for pennies per unit. America also no longer has the kind of soft power to force China back in the box. That's my best guess as to why the US suddenly backed down and why I'm also suddenly hearing a shitload less on the radio about the plight of the poor, downtrodden Venezuelans. China may have made it clear that the US is no longer in a position to assume easy and cheap foreign incursions, a scenario that played out not so long ago in the Ukraine.

Venezuela is still a rather rich country. Being mineral rich with a lot of jungle does that. The original Incas didn't have anti-malarials. The new pasty to multicultural Incas up north do.

Then there's the urgency this standoff injects into the BRICS states to get parallel US-resistant international financial systems built out. One trend is that generally people give a whole lot less fucks about US sanctions than they did while Saddam was still breathing. New York and London aren't irrelevant yet, but sanctioned folks and countries are getting by better than they used to.

(03-10-2019 09:30 AM)911 Wrote:  Part of the reason the US is playing hardball with Venezuela is that the Kochs want to be in full control of the crude at the source, they want to secure the kind of sweetheart discount deals from their Venezuelan wells that they used to get back in the 1990s, when they owned the government, before Chavez came in and nationalized their oil, putting an end to the party. Those Gulf Coast refineries are adapted to process heavy grade Venezuelan oil, and Chavez leveraged this to force the Koch bros. to pay him top rate for their crude.

That's one of the angles that you won't hear about on Fox or CNN.

Thanks to Hussein Bahamas the US exports oil now. If oil is a serious consideration I suspect it is less about capturing Venezuela's reserves than destroying their production infrastructure. Destroying their production infrastructure creates a supply contraction for higher prices and an opportunity to for them to buy new kit at gunpoint from your favored contractors Iraq style.

I suspect the gold and other mineral deposits are weighing pretty heavily on the "things to steal" scale relative to the oil.

Post: #1377

All this talk of China and Russia having red lines on a South American country. Thats missing the mark completely. Chinese and Russians do not think like that and will not intervene.

It cost a lot for Russia to go to Syria and they had a lot more skin in the game which they did not and could not afford to lose.

China just wants cheap oil. Both have red lines but those are Ukraine and North korea. Until the US/NATO sets up incursions with their own militaries in those two areas we shouldn't be talking about those two TBH.

Thats not to say they wont do something to get back at the US however.

Post: #1378

I love to see that the typical LatAm left discourse "The USA is the source of all our evils and the justifications for our actions" its alive and well. Never blame to foreign intervention to what can be explained with the inoperancy of a far-left regime.

Post: #1379

BBinger the Venezuelans are doing a good of destroying their oil infrastructure on their own, they are running their refineries into the ground. I follow a Venezualan refinery maintenance technician online who posts photos of the state of disrepair in a state owned refinery and its mind boggling, you would never see this type of thing in western refineries.

Post: #1380

Mr MAGA is a criminal, a real war criminal.
A widespread power cut affecting much of Venezuela has continued ahead of planned protests on Saturday. Hospitals struggled to cope and at least one hospital patient died when her respirator stopped working. The power cuts, which started on Thursday, have reportedly been caused by problems at a major hydroelectric plant.
It seems that American government is using a virus like Stutnex, the Israeli virus used against Iran, to disrupt the power distribution.

Post: #1381

(03-10-2019 12:29 PM)BBinger Wrote:  Lumping "Venezualans" together as a single opinion bloc is dangerous. Yes, a large number of Venezuelands hate Maduro, viscerally. But Venezuela is a democratic country and those Maduro voters come out for the counter protests.

Maduro is more popular in Venezuela than Obama, Trump, Macron, or Merkel ever were.

Do you seriously believe Venezuela is democratic (currently) and that Maduro really has even moderate levels of popularity like that? People hate him more than ever right now with this blackout, but even a few weeks ago his support was super low.

Post: #1382

“Posted by Luvianka - Today 09:11 PM

Mr MAGA is a criminal, a real war criminal.
A widespread power cut affecting much of Venezuela has continued ahead of planned protests on Saturday. Hospitals struggled to cope and at least one hospital patient died when her respirator stopped working. The power cuts, which started on Thursday, have reportedly been caused by problems at a major hydroelectric plant.
It seems that American government is using a virus like Stutnex, the Israeli virus used against Iran, to disrupt the power distribution.”

So DJT is using an Israeli virus to cut the power of the electrical grids in Venezuela.

The tinfoil hat crowd is really getting stronger here.

Blackouts in Venezuela have been happening since the late 2000’s, à prolonged blackout is not even news the infrastructures are in an extremely bad condition now. Worst than Cuba.

Post: #1383

I spoke to a non-Western man a while ago and he offered this view of the world:

"Some people complain that countries are being dominated by the West. I think its completely fair. If these countries were strong- economically, militarily, politically - then the West couldn't do anything. But since they are weak, the West can interfere and rightfully so."

I was surprised to hear him say this, and I think I agree.

In my mind there are 2 possibilities:

1) The infrastructure is poor, it is their fault for mismanaging it.

2) This is a successful attack, it is their fault for being weak.


Maybe the world has progressed a bit since the caveman days, we no longer kill all the males and take the women as slaves, but cultures do still battle. In the end, its still the survival of the fittest.

I think the real lesson to be taken from all of this is that we must strive to be strong individuals- intellectually, spiritually, physically - and to make our countries and cultures that way. We don't have any choice.

Post: #1384

We got confirmation. The Deep State’s desperate attack on Venezuela’s power grid was far more extensive than previously thought. This is a textbook regime change strategy to plunge Venezuela into darkness and chaos, on top of the multiple economic and political sanctions that the country has been subjected to for years, to push the people to topple their own legitimately elected authorities in favor of a puppet government.

Stephen Lemman writes in Covert Geopolitics that what’s happening in Venezuela is similar to infecting Iran’s Bushehr and Natanz nuclear power facilities with a Stuxnet malware computer virus in 2010, a likely joint US/Israeli intelligence operation. Edward Snowden blamed them for what happened. At the time, operations were halted indefinitely. Iran called the incident a hostile act. General Gholam-Reza Jalali said if the affected facilities went online infected, Iran’s entire electrical power grid could have been shut down. It took months to fully resolve the problem. Following the summer 2010 attack, the malware continued to infect the facilities’ centrifuges, requiring their replacement. An Institute for Science and International Security analysis said

Post: #1385

(03-08-2019 07:48 PM)911 Wrote:  

So, it's because of some brilliant, CIA-engineered master-plan that most Central-American employees "arrive late for work, are slow to complete their task, and often call in sick"? Well, as same goes, I've noticed, for Italian and French employees - next time I'm late for work: I'll blame the CIA!

Matter of fact, it looks like this CIA handbook is enthusiastically followed and implemented by 95% of the world's workforce. Only Japan and Westphalia are immune!


German worker. Will not arrive late, will not call-in sick. Slightly boring as shit though

Anyway, we've had members on this thread writing stinging posts on how "Latin America is fucked-up and useless and nobody works there and why should we help them, they are ineffective savages" , but now some of these same members are saying that it's impossible that Latin American workers would badly maintain an electrical dam or whatever.

So, which is which? Are our Latin American brothers "inefficient and not worthy of our help", or are they "so smart and industrious that only sabotage can stop their electrical grids"?

In any case, hard to know what happened in Venezuela to the electrical power-plant (can be basic failure due to lack of maintenance, or could be sabotage carried out by a number of actors), but, generally speaking, it is a reminder that these power-plants all over the world are soft targets.
Soft targets both for physical assault (as they are relatively unprotected) or virtual (through computers) assault; and in Europe for example, a single power-plant can feed three or four countries in electricity, at times. So any failure would be catastrophic.

Post: #1386

That's a bit of a hyperbole there, GS, non-criminal technical failure of a powerplant would be fixed within hours if not minutes, it wouldn't be "catastrophic". Chances are the network would cover a local failure, as there is a lot of redundancy built into the grid, especially with much of it being powered by inherently unreliable intermittent "green" sources nowadays.

Major civilian infrastructure installations are extremely vulnerable to insider sabotage, the smallest well-placed metaphorical grain of sand can bring a whole machinery to a grinding halt. In a country where operators are paid peanuts due to rampant inflation, it would be very easy to buy insider saboteurs, especially some that might not be fond of Chavistas.

Given that the Bolton-Abrams bunch is hell bent on crippling the Venezuelan economy, it would be really naive to assume that the power grid wouldn't be a prime target.

Post: #1387

It hardly matters.

If some asshole threatens to fuck me up and two days later a rock comes through my front window then I'm not going to give him the benefit of the doubt that maybe it was just some neighborhood kids. That's why it's not wise to make threats lightly. After you make a threat then you're on the hook for every bad thing that the person you threatened happens to suffer.

Even if the US didn't cause the power outage then it's going to be on them regardless.

Post: #1388

(03-13-2019 12:27 AM)911 Wrote:  That's a bit of a hyperbole there, GS, non-criminal technical failure of a powerplant would be fixed within hours if not minutes, it wouldn't be "catastrophic". Chances are the network would cover a local failure, as there is a lot of redundancy built into the grid, especially with much of it being powered by inherently unreliable intermittent "green" sources nowadays.

Major civilian infrastructure installations are extremely vulnerable to insider sabotage, the smallest well-placed metaphorical grain of sand can bring a whole machinery to a grinding halt. In a country where operators are paid peanuts due to rampant inflation, it would be very easy to buy insider saboteurs, especially some that might not be fond of Chavistas.

I agree with most of your post (and posts, actually) quoted above, 911. But I suspect (no offense meant) that your knowledge of Latin America is not as great as your (impressive) knowledge of France, Canada and the USA (and I guess, Russia?).

Because you said that, in Venezuela, "non-criminal technical failure of a powerplant would be fixed within hours if not minutes". This is Latin America (and not a very functional part of it) mon ami, so you should have said, within hours, or within a couple of days if the failure is anything serious.

I mean, a "non-criminal technical failure of a powerplant", in Latin America, unresolved after say 48 hours, is not that shocking or implausible. Now, if the failure is still unresolved after more than 2 days, yes, one might suspect that foul-play could be involved.

But even if it was sabotage, who did it? A disgruntled employee at the powerplant (a dude with serious grudge and vast technical knowledge, as I don't reckon it'd be simple to cripple a huge powerplant)? Member(s) of the opposition to Maduro, acting on their own will? Foreign saboteurs on the ground? Some more-or-less independent ex-military Israeli hacker based in Cartagena (a hotbed for such colorful characters)? Foreign, State-employed computer scientists? Impossible to know.

And the truth will never be known for sure, as, whether it's poor maintenance or sabotage, the people responsible would face serious penal action at some point, so, everybody involved will deny and hide their tracks. So it shall remain a mystery, I think, this power-plant outage. Like the Vegas shooting, which I personally suspect is somehow linked to a previous attack on a power-plant.

Anyway, my analysis remains the same as earlier on the thread:

Maduro very probably cannot survive for long. A complex multi-pronged war is waged against him, on all fronts, by all-mighty actors.

Maduro survives for now because he gets help from clever intelligence officers from a third-country (not Russia, not China, not Iran, think of a sunny island I've just visited, and the chicas send their greetings ), and because he knows that like Allende (or Saddam or Milosevic), he has no real option to flee anywhere, but, at some point he will get strangled economically, or -if he offers a casus belli- terminated by a missile or some.

So, it's almost a done deal, for Maduro. His, say, weeks (days? months?) are counted.

Now, I'm more interested in what it will mean for the third-country island, already alluded to by mister Guaido, who's just threatened to cut its oil lifeline.

And if you're American "and don't care about Venezuela", well, all the same you should turn your attention to this matter now, as a total economic collapse of the island facing Florida coasts, would bring complex problems to American shores. Complex as in ten millions of "refugees" in one month.

So, well, personally I'm not following closely anymore the Venezuelan mess, as its conclusion is almost obvious, but I will follow with interest what happens with the oil lifeline to the third-party island.

Post: #1389

Personally when I hear about this sort of stuff I always wonder what the immense benefits are of running computer programs in critical infrastructure that don't have entirely closed networks, and by entirely closed I mean "no wireless, no outside connection and not even a microphone".

Is total data connectivity such an important part of power generation that it's worth compromising your power grid from the risk of a simple foreign hack? Seems off for a socialist nation which, like Cuba, is so wary of outside interference.

Was power generation and distribution really so catastrophically shit prior to the invention of the internet and the wireless network card?

Post: #1390

Going Strong are some of those ((Israeli)) dudes on the Caribbean coast of Colombia ((Mossad)) spy types? I thought ((they)) were just there doing hard drugs and sex trafficking underage chicas. https://www.timesofisrael.com/14-israeli...-colombia/

Post: #1391

(03-13-2019 10:12 AM)Going strong Wrote:  Anyway, my analysis remains the same as earlier on the thread:

Maduro very probably cannot survive for long. A complex multi-pronged war is waged against him, on all fronts, by all-mighty actors.

Maduro survives for now because he gets help from clever intelligence officers from a third-country (not Russia, not China, not Iran, think of a sunny island I've just visited, and the chicas send their greetings ), and because he knows that like Allende (or Saddam or Milosevic), he has no real option to flee anywhere, but, at some point he will get strangled economically, or -if he offers a casus belli- terminated by a missile or some.

So, it's almost a done deal, for Maduro. His, say, weeks (days? months?) are counted.

Now, I'm more interested in what it will mean for the third-country island, already alluded to by mister Guaido, who's just threatened to cut its oil lifeline.

And if you're American "and don't care about Venezuela", well, all the same you should turn your attention to this matter now, as a total economic collapse of the island facing Florida coasts, would bring complex problems to American shores. Complex as in ten millions of "refugees" in one month.

So, well, personally I'm not following closely anymore the Venezuelan mess, as its conclusion is almost obvious, but I will follow with interest what happens with the oil lifeline to the third-party island.

Well, China's stepping up to fix the damned dam. With Russia that's two US Security Council veto powers blocking an active "regime change" action from claiming "international community."

The effects of the Chinese language and culture make the meaning behind their actions difficult to discern for Western folk, but propping up Maduro against the US and EU is going to impress a lot of governments that don't want to give in to the US/EU "rules based international order." China, Russia, and Turkey are out there engaging in diplomacy and making friends with other countries by letting them be their own countries. This is in contrast to Washington, Brussels, and London trying to make other countries eat their entire rulebook if they want to deal.

Maduro's a somewhat dumb everyman bus driver caught in an unfortunate situation where he's stuck with responsibility beyond his ability. For everyone except the US regime change crew and the neighbors who don't want the flood of people leaving to continue, the present struggle is about far more than Maduro and Venezuela. It's about Russia, China, and Turkey telling the US and EU to stop the world police schtick, you're address your own decline.

(03-13-2019 11:11 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  Personally when I hear about this sort of stuff I always wonder what the immense benefits are of running computer programs in critical infrastructure that don't have entirely closed networks, and by entirely closed I mean "no wireless, no outside connection and not even a microphone".

Is total data connectivity such an important part of power generation that it's worth compromising your power grid from the risk of a simple foreign hack? Seems off for a socialist nation which, like Cuba, is so wary of outside interference.

Was power generation and distribution really so catastrophically shit prior to the invention of the internet and the wireless network card?

Hygiene is a thing. That many people choose to be unwashed is unfortunate. That many people who would recoil at the idea of putting a toilet in their kitchen fail to recognize similar situations in the field of technology is unfortunate as well.

Post: #1392

(03-13-2019 01:05 PM)scotian Wrote:  Going Strong are some of those ((Israeli)) dudes on the Caribbean coast of Colombia ((Mossad)) spy types? I thought ((they)) were just there doing hard drugs and sex trafficking underage chicas. https://www.timesofisrael.com/14-israeli...-colombia/

Hola hermano Scotian, and well, as a man interested in Colombia, I am aware of the Hotel Benjamin - Mosh huge sex scandal. From what I heard though, the main suspects were Israeli low-ranking ex-soldiers, not ex-Mossad per se.

Matter of fact, I hope that Israel will extradite, or severely prosecute in Israel, the main ring leader, Mosh. Meanwhile, I think that (most) Colombians who allowed themselves to be bought and corrupted, were caught and prosecuted in Colombia. Sad story anyway, all this! Personally I don't go to Cartagena or Taganga, too much fuckery over there...

Post: #1393

(03-13-2019 01:36 PM)BBinger Wrote:  Maduro's a somewhat dumb everyman bus driver caught in an unfortunate situation where he's stuck with responsibility beyond his ability.

As time passes by and Maduro (against all odds) survives, one has to reluctantly reckon that the fat bus-driver is not so dumb. Or say, the people who taught him his trade on the sunny third-party island, have done quite a good job: Maduro has some brain on him, it seems, after all, and he knows the basis of survival and ruthlessness.

Anyway, the more time passes, the more it seems to me that this is a battle to the end, a battle that the US especially cannot afford to lose and therefore won't lose.

I mean, if Maduro falls, China or Russia or Iran will be a bit upset, but no big deal, life goes on. But, if Maduro wins, the USA will have received such a huge blow, that, I am quite sure that President Trump cannot and will not allow such a defeat to materialize.

For me, it is now a battle that has Maduro and the whole US government locked, with the survivor winning re-election, and the loser losing face and power forever... That is why I think that, if Maduro survives the economic strangulation, he will get terminated somehow (drone, missile from a warship, whatever, Guaido at some point will quite-legally ask for, and be granted, a military intervention).

4-d chess anyway, if ever there was, is at play in or around Venezuela. I personally think that President Trump is playing 4d here: maybe letting China and to a lesser extent Russia entangle themselves into this mess, so that they'd look bad when the US terminates Maduro. Might be why Vladimir Vladimirovich is sensing and avoiding the trap, so, well, if I were the Chinese I would steer clear of the impending disaster.

I totally agree with the following, by the way:

Quote:Leonard D Neubache Wrote:

Personally when I hear about this sort of stuff I always wonder what the immense benefits are of running computer programs in critical infrastructure that don't have entirely closed networks, and by entirely closed I mean "no wireless, no outside connection and not even a microphone".

Is total data connectivity such an important part of power generation that it's worth compromising your power grid from the risk of a simple foreign hack? Seems off for a socialist nation which, like Cuba, is so wary of outside interference.

Was power generation and distribution really so catastrophically shit prior to the invention of the internet and the wireless network card?

Quote:BBinger:

That many people who would recoil at the idea of putting a toilet in their kitchen fail to recognize similar situations in the field of technology is unfortunate as well.

Post: #1394

Are there any detailed reports available on the nature of the damage the power plant sustained? That would help to settle the question of whether the damage was caused by sabotage or negligence.

Post: #1395

Chinese gov. power brokers are not "making friends". Their diplomacy is an infrastructure building for ownership type deals. They learned quite a bit from the British but they certainly wont be foolish enough to relinquish those infrastructures after the 99 year lease. China will make european colonialists look decent and moral after they have had their way. After all its taken them much more investment and hard work to achieve it in the modern political arena so they wont take it for granted to be in the ownership role of international economies.

And the american elite are looking to do the same. No matter what the hell happened to the dam or the sanctions whatever. The bottom line is that venezuelans are far too weak of a populace and a government to properly utilize the resources of the country and its only natural that the superpowers get involved to take their shit. The strong prey on the weak its nothing new, no different than the schoolyard bullies. Just as americans are too weak of consumerism drugs and mindless entertainment to correct the problems facing our nation.

Post: #1396

It is worth what it's worth. But a well placed source at the Portuguese MFA has told me that something major MIGHT, MIGHT, happen this very weekend regarding the Venezuelan predicament. Might be military related, and it's obviously connected to the power grid...

Post: #1397

(03-13-2019 12:37 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  It hardly matters.

If some asshole threatens to fuck me up and two days later a rock comes through my front window then I'm not going to give him the benefit of the doubt that maybe it was just some neighborhood kids. That's why it's not wise to make threats lightly. After you make a threat then you're on the hook for every bad thing that the person you threatened happens to suffer.

Even if the US didn't cause the power outage then it's going to be on them regardless.

The US would have much better optics. If the politicians simply kept their mouth shut about Venezuela.

Post: #1398

By the way, to answer Leonard's and BBinger's legitimate questions:

If indeed the power-plant was sabotaged through a computer virus, I would think that said virus was implanted directly from within the control room of the power-plant. By an employee or an intruder having or gaining access to a local (intranet) computer. Please don't tell me that massive power-plants actually have their control software connected to the internet?

Please tell me it was not done by one of those:


...but by one of these:

Post: #1399

I like to imagine that cyber-security is given considerable thought when critical infrastructure is built, not just in beleaguered nations but in first world nations like America and Australia.

But I've worked for the government before, and long enough to know that everyone with functioning brain and moral compass was pensioned out no later than ten years ago.

Post: #1400

(03-13-2019 06:08 PM)scorpion Wrote:  Are there any detailed reports available on the nature of the damage the power plant sustained? That would help to settle the question of whether the damage was caused by sabotage or negligence.

You have a detailed report written (the 13th of March) by the technical branch of the main university of Venezuela, the "facultad de Ingenieria de la UCV". This report points to a "lack of maintenance and faulty transmission system of the 765kV", whatever that might mean. Also possible, a faulty "turbine in the Guri plant" and note that this Guri (female, no doubt) dam seems troublesome indeed: http://elestimulo.com/elinteres/embalse-...e-colapso/