Post: #26

After tonight I'm going 5/5.

The only acceptable response to last night's shenanigans is a complete fucking blowout. We need such a huge win that it becomes impossible for Trump's eventual nomination to be interpreted as anything other than inevitable. Let the media and establishment cucks choke on it.

These leftist BLM degenerates and SJWs are psychologically fragile. Demoralize them with blowout victories and they will retreat to their safe spaces, unable to function by way of acute triggering.

Post: #27

I originally predicted 3, but, when we consider what transpired last night, I would change to 4. Fuck, even 5, since Teddy's campaign is evaporating rapidly.

Post: #28

Only thing that I'm worried about is voter fraud. Especially in Florida and Ohio. There have been rumors in Florida of some shady Rubio stuff going on. Plus this is the absolute last chance for the elites to stop a Trump nomination. If he gets Florida and Ohio then this shit is over and no one can come back to beat him. I predict 4 or 5 out of 5 states if there is minimal to no fraud, but we have to be on the lookout for it. In a fair election, Trump rolls easily right now so this is the only thing that could hurt him.

Post: #29

5/5 I voted before the protests in Chicago and the attack in Ohio.

Those events just solidified Turmp's lead. He's gonna walk out with 300 delegates probably.

Post: #30

I voted 4/5 because I am predicting massive amounts of voter fraud, even more so than the caucus states.

Post: #31

Originally I would have gone 3/5 but after the events of last night here in Chicago, I'd say he takes 5/5

Post: #32

Trump will win 4/5. John "let the party not the people decide" Kasich will take the home state advantage and win there unfortunately.

If Trump walks away with more than 200 delegates, which is highly likely, it will be a great day for him.

Post: #33

He needs 256 delegates to stay on track according to this: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/elec...e-targets/

Post: #34

Quote:He needs 256 delegates to stay on track according to this: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/elec...e-targets/

Just calculated it now...

367 delegates up for grabs and Trump needs 256? That is 70% of the delegates up for grabs. That does not seem like a realistic goal.

Good way to set up for failure by FiveThirtyEight. Trump can blow everyone out but if he doesn't reach their 256 goal they will say Trump is failing.

Post: #35

That's just what he needs to stay on track for 1237.

Everyone else is way behind what they need already.

Post: #36

Mitt Romney should haul his ass back out and give another speech against The Donald. That ought to be good for another 10%.

After the events of the last ~36 hours, I expect The Don to run the table on Tuesday. There's still enough people that "get it" and have had enough of the bullshit.

Trump sweeping on Tuesday cements him as the GOP nominee.

After Crubiosich siding with the communnist agitators, play time's over and it's really time to say "Fuck you, bye!" to those three cucksuckers.

Post: #37

Post: #38

Winning all 5 would be an extremely difficult task. I went with 3 which as long as he gets Florida and Ohio or Illinois he will be in good shape.

Post: #39

(03-12-2016 11:49 PM)username Wrote:  367 delegates up for grabs and Trump needs 256? That is 70% of the delegates up for grabs. That does not seem like a realistic goal.

Good way to set up for failure by FiveThirtyEight. Trump can blow everyone out but if he doesn't reach their 256 goal they will say Trump is failing.

You are right, its an impossible task, if he wins florida thats 99 delegates in his pocket. Illinois and Missouri will split and he will likely take most of North Carolina. So he needs 157 to stay on track from the bellow, Rubio doesn't meet the threshold for the below so it will split between 1st and 2nd place.

Illinois ->69 Trump: 40
Missouri -> 52 Trump: 30
North Carolina ->72 Trump: 50

Lets add 2 from that other pointless caucus and the total is: 122 +99 = 221


Basically the only way to beat that Nate silver number is if he wins Ohio which is why the MSM is cucking so hard for kasich right now. A kasich Ohio win buys them some time but even if trump doesn't perform well in the rest of the primaries he still comes up just short of the magic number, its very easy to then just buy your way into it when only need 70 delegates.

Post: #40

(03-13-2016 12:17 AM)Isaac Jordan Wrote:  

GET 'EM OUT! CONFISCATE HIS COAT!

Post: #41

5/5. I want to believe. Kasich received the kiss of death from Romney RIGHT after he fumbled the Trump riot response. His Facebook is crawling with Trump trolls and legitimately pissed former supporters to the point where every top comment is against him. I know social media isn't a totally reliable predictor for elections, but this is the weakest he'll ever be and it's 2 days before the vote.

I'm feeling a strong win in North Carolina just like South Carolina. Big win in Florida, close in Missouri and a little less close in Illinois. Choo choo.

Post: #42

NC
Trump 44
Cruz 34
Kasich 12
Rubio 10

Illinois
Trump 35
Cruz 32
Kasich 21
Rubio 12

Florida
Trump 45
Rubio 27
Cruz 20
Kasich 8

Missouri
Trump 39
Cruz 36
Rubio 11
Kasich 11

Ohio
Kasich 40
Trump 36
Cruz 20
Rubio 4


4/5 states.
Rubio drops out.

Trump 650
Cruz 450
Kasich 160

Roughly 1,020 delegates left. Cuckich will be mathematically impossible and therefore should also drop out, although I think keeping 1 of the shills in for a little longer won't hurt. He'll get nothing in Utah/Arizona and should get the hint by then.

Post: #43

I initially voted 4, but I think it will be three now.

Cucksich will win Ohio as he appears to be outright surging there (69 delegates to a cuck, sad).

Cruz will not carry the popular in Illinois, Trump will, but thanks to ridiculous rules in that State, Cruz will come out with the most delegates.

Trump will win the others, including winner-take-all 99 delegate Florida.

Also, Marianas will go to Trump. It's only 9 delegates, but it's likely more than Cucko Rubio will win tonight.

Post: #44

I don't understand this depression about the "Kasich surge". Is there any legitimate source for that? Kasich has already been teetering on the brink before and then took a step off the cliff with his blaming of Trump for the Chicago violence. His FB has turned from mild support into savage 24/7 slamming.

And why would Cruz win more delegates than Trump in Illinois? Even ridiculous rules can only be stretched so far.

Northern Mariana Islands have already gone to Trump. It was all over the news.

Post: #45

^ Thanks, I didn't see the Marianas results. Forgot they were on the other side of the dateline.

Cucksich has been trending up in Ohio in every recent poll. There's even one where he has a substantial lead now: http://www.dispatch.com/content/blogs/th...-poll.html

Trends are usually a better predictor of surges than the poll numbers themselves, which is what is making me pessimistic on Ohio.

Illinois has some rules where only a minority of the delegates go to the person who wins the popular vote. Voters have to also vote for a delegate in their respective electoral districts, which is where the majority of the delegates get allocated. Totally bizarre and rigged in favour of the establishment, but there it is.

Post: #46

Mitt is defending Marco from Trump and he says:
"If you touch my friend Marco, I'll beat you up".
Trump beats the hell out of Marco.
Next day, Mitt says again to Trump "If you touch Marco, I'll beat you up".
And, yet again, poor Marco gets beaten to pulp.
On the next day, Mitt says "If you touch Marco, I'll beat you up"
And suddenly, Marco says "For fucks sake Mitt, stop defending me..."

Post: #47

(03-15-2016 01:18 PM)DannyAlberta Wrote:  ^ Thanks, I didn't see the Marianas results. Forgot they were on the other side of the dateline.

Cucksich has been trending up in Ohio in every recent poll. There's even one where he has a substantial lead now: http://www.dispatch.com/content/blogs/th...-poll.html

Trends are usually a better predictor of surges than the poll numbers themselves, which is what is making me pessimistic on Ohio.

Illinois has some rules where only a minority of the delegates go to the person who wins the popular vote. Voters have to also vote for a delegate in their respective electoral districts, which is where the majority of the delegates get allocated. Totally bizarre and rigged in favour of the establishment, but there it is.

I wouldn't even say it's rigged in favor of the establishment. Illinois' arcane delegate allocation benefits candidates with extensive ground game, which Cruz has. Boots on the ground explaining exactly what to do at the polls, etc. That said, fuck Cruz. It's Christmas Day, boys.

Post: #48

It's been pointed out to me that Ohio is only 66 delegates, not 69 as I wrote above.

My apologies. My mind must have been on other things when I typed the wrong number...

Post: #49

Danny you are buying into MSM crap. Tonight should be Trump's best night.