I'm hearing more talk you guys won't even be leaving the EU at this point, that it won't happen. Either a 2nd vote or just dropping it. Any truth to that? I've heard of the horrible cucking deal they're trying to get you to take.
I hope I see the EU die within my lifetime. I will be sorely disappointed if I don't.
(01-13-2019 07:07 PM)Once Was Not Wrote: I'm hearing more talk you guys won't even be leaving the EU at this point, that it won't happen. Either a 2nd vote or just dropping it. Any truth to that? I've heard of the horrible cucking deal they're trying to get you to take.
I hope I see the EU die within my lifetime. I will be sorely disappointed if I don't.
I think not leaving is more and more likely.
May has gone back on her 'No deal is better than a bad deal' slogan from earlier in the negotiations. She is now saying that it's more likely that MPs will block Brexit if her deal fails than us leaving in a no-deal scenario. For some fucking reason MPs are shitting themselves at the thought of not securing a deal, even a bad one, with the EU.
The vote is on Tuesday, and despite several Brexiteers cucking and supporting the deal, it's still expected to be defeated.
(01-13-2019 07:07 PM)Once Was Not Wrote: I'm hearing more talk you guys won't even be leaving the EU at this point, that it won't happen. Either a 2nd vote or just dropping it. Any truth to that? I've heard of the horrible cucking deal they're trying to get you to take.
I hope I see the EU die within my lifetime. I will be sorely disappointed if I don't.
I think not leaving is more and more likely.
May has gone back on her 'No deal is better than a bad deal' slogan from earlier in the negotiations. She is now saying that it's more likely that MPs will block Brexit if her deal fails than us leaving in a no-deal scenario. For some fucking reason MPs are shitting themselves at the thought of not securing a deal, even a bad one, with the EU.
The vote is on Tuesday, and despite several Brexiteers cucking and supporting the deal, it's still expected to be defeated.
If that happens, we'll see.
Fuck the EU.
Well, that's about what I thought. How unfortunate. The world's fifth largest economy leaving the EU would have been a pivotal moment and crucial for the Western world to turn against globalism.
If U.K. doesn't leave the EU, it will be very telling how the populace reacts. If they don't react with extreme anger and, yes, violence...well; It would not bode well for the future for them if they don't care about the government flagrantly denying them their will like this.
(01-13-2019 08:08 PM)eradicator Wrote: Germany should leave the E.U.
They'll be the last to go since it benefits them the most. Economically. And that's essentially what Germany is, a zombie economy that gets to pretend it's a country while being militarily occupied.
Unless AfD gets elected, then they would likely leave quickly. And the EU would quickly unravel. Unless the U.S. decides to intervene, of course.
(01-13-2019 09:03 PM)Once Was Not Wrote: Well, that's about what I thought. How unfortunate. The world's fifth largest economy leaving the EU would have been a pivotal moment and crucial for the Western world to turn against globalism.
If U.K. doesn't leave the EU, it will be very telling how the populace reacts. If they don't react with extreme anger and, yes, violence...well; It would not bode well for the future for them if they don't care about the government flagrantly denying them their will like this.
If Leavers do take to the streets, I can see Remainers doing the same. We would then see several scenes of civil unrest, with the Government cracking down on Leavers and becoming more authoritarian.
If leavers take to the streets as they have done previously then they will be stopped by the police. The remainer cucks will be allowed the freedom of Westminister 100% guaranteed. They've done it before.
I think people are confused and wary of 'jumping the gun' and just want to see if we actually do or don't leave at the end of March. What happens then, (if we don't leave)? Even the Brits have their limits, I'd be surprised if we don't ... erm....send one or two very strongly worded emails to the Newspapers at the very least!
For me, the last 2 years have been helpful in confirming that my low opinion of politicians was certainly not misplaced. The whole country, with the exception of what's left of its great people is now rotten to the core.
The British police would get a solid erection for years if people took to the streets and became hostile towards the politicians. The number of people they would arrest and see go to court would make them chomp at the bit such is the state of those at the helm and amongst the rank and file police officers.
A man can call for the PM to "shoot herself" whilst giving a speach in Trafalgar square with Labour MPs present but a man calling some remainer MP a Nazi is arrested for what he did.
For the Brits to go into looney toons mode you will need many of them to cast aside fears of the law and a large number of people to back you up.
If you think that the leave voters will rise up if the government quietly shelves brexit you are dreaming. There’s no fight left in the people. They’re too far gone.
(01-15-2019 02:36 PM)LINUX Wrote: Can someone explain in "dumb person" terms what happens next now that the vote today was 24 yes /600 no?
I really can't understand UK politics.
Do they vote for brexit again?
Deal absolutely BTFO.
The date we leave the EU has been set in law at the end of March. If nothing changes between then and now (God willing), we leave without a deal and deal with the EU on WTO terms.
Despite all the talk of a second referendum, extensions to Article 50 etc, none of that is in place and we are on course to leave.
Corbyn has just tabled a motion of no confidence in the government.
Quote:Tuesday’s vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal is one of the most keenly anticipated Commons events in years. The result, and the scale of it, will trigger one or several of a series of outcomes. The precise choreography of what will happen is anyone’s guess, but here are some of the possible scenarios.
May wins
The most straightforward, if unlikely, result of the vote. Should May somehow tempt enough rebels back to her view and prevail, there would be an agreed departure deal with which the EU could work, and it would be full steam ahead to 29 March. Yes, there would be more fierce and endless arguments on everything from the backstop to the future trade deal, but the basics would be there.
Likelihood rating: 1/5
May loses and pledges to try again
Barring a particularly big defeat for the prime minister, this is what many MPs believe will come next: May makes a rapid statement saying she will go back to Brussels and seek more concessions, notably on the backstop. The thinking is that once the EU has seen the concrete evidence of MPs’ views, it will be more likely to come up with something genuinely new, to try to avoid a no-deal departure. Those being most targeted for a change of heart would be the Democratic Unionist party, Tory waverers and Labour MPs from leave-minded seats.
Likelihood rating: 3/5
Quick guide
What are the details of Theresa May's deal?
Show
Article 50 is extended
Seen as a necessary adjunct to the above tactic – and perhaps needed in just about any scenario – this has now been unofficially promised by the EU. The most likely variant would be a “technical” extension until July or thereabouts, to allow more time for a second vote, and to pass other Brexit-related legislation. But if there was something new afoot, whether an election or a second referendum, a longer timetable could be offered.
Likelihood rating: 4/5
May loses and a plan B emerges
Some Conservative MPs predict that if the margin of defeat is heavy, May could finally decide – or be persuaded – to drop her long-held plan, seek an extension to article 50 and embark on a cross-party push for a more consensual Brexit, perhaps based on a Norway model. Given how vehemently and how often the PM has rejected such a course, it seems unlikely. More possible, though still marginal, would be the idea of backbenchers using parliamentary procedure to effectively take control.
Likelihood rating: 2/5
The men in grey suits pay a visit
Some speculation centres around the idea of a particularly heavy defeat seeing May pledging to plough on, at which point her colleagues act. They cannot formally remove her until December, as her win in the Tory MPs’ confidence vote before Christmas keeps her safe for a year, so instead the scenario has a delegation of cabinet ministers going to No 10 and telling the PM her time is up. She could well send them packing.
Likelihood rating: 1/5
A general election
This has been the favoured Labour approach if May loses her Brexit vote. Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, a specifically worded no-confidence motion against the government would be debated and voted on, for or against, relatively soon. If lost, there would be a 14-day period for a new government to be formed, but if this could not happen then an election would be called. However, while a number of Tories are likely to vote against May’s deal, it is another matter to ask them to vote down their government. Another option, which some Labour MPs are privately wary about, is May deciding to call an election herself, gambling that she could be able to present a more coherent Brexit approach than Jeremy Corbyn.
Likelihood rating: 2/5
Second referendum
This has been the hope of a good number of Conservative and Labour MPs, supported by the energetic People’s Vote campaign, but has been vehemently opposed by May and others in parliament. Many argue that the most likely way to bring about a second referendum would be if Labour formally threw its weight behind the idea. However, Corbyn has made it plain that his preferred route would be to negotiate a different Brexit deal.
Likelihood rating: 2/5
No deal
This has been simultaneously the default option – if May’s deal is lost and nothing is put forward in its place, then a no-deal departure would happen automatically on 29 March – and also something discounted as impossible by many MPs. The decision of the Commons last week to back an amendment to the finance bill tabled by Labour’s Yvette Cooper seeking to block no-deal has relatively little power but shows the arithmetic in parliament supports such an approach. Several Tories have vowed to quit ministerial jobs or even the party whip if no-deal becomes policy. All that said, as many commentators have noted, many events in history not actively sought by the majority have still happened because not enough people took action to prevent them.
(01-15-2019 05:32 PM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote: What is this about "extending Article 50"? Who has the authority to extend it?
We have to ask the EU for an extension, and all 27 other member states have to agree to it.
Which they would, like a shot - unless the likes of Italy and Poland decided to annoy the EU by refusing.
I see, but what I'm really asking here is who in UK would have the authority to ask such a thing in the first place? No matter the amount of votes the Parliament can't just disregard the referendum and say "ok we're asking for an extension", right?
The vote of no confidence is tonight around 7-8pm GMT. It wont go through but it will be a kick to the gut. Where the government goes from there we will have to see.
(01-16-2019 07:30 AM)Foolsgo1d Wrote: The vote of no confidence is tonight around 7-8pm GMT. It wont go through but it will be a kick to the gut. Where the government goes from there we will have to see.
Turns out we got the best result and Comrade got embarrassed. I do hope we leave with a no deal come 29 March. Europe needs to be able to trade with the UK, how many European cars are on the road? Majority of them. \they refuse to trade with us they will see a huge dent in their earnings.
Listen to the cheer from the audience when the blonde woman says that the only choice is No Deal.
For anybody unfamiliar with Question Time, this really isn't what the BBC would have been expecting from one of their QT audiences. (They've previously admitting to politically vetting their QT audiences.)
For example, and this week was typical, this panel had four Remainers against one Brexiteer.
Finally, I haven't said Fuck the EU yet today, so fuck the EU.