Post: #1

Roosh made this sub-forum so that we wouldn't have to rely on a Trump mega thread. Might as well use it.

So how do you all think this is going to shake out?

For me, you can all check my posts, I am a big Trump booster, but I think Trump might lose Iowa by a bit due to

- Cruz's superior ground game. According to the Rubio camp Cruz has something like 10,000 volunteers in Iowa for him, and though the national media and the polls have Trump ahead, it seems a lot of the insiders feel like Cruz will still come out on top. Conversely, Trump's ground game seems non-existent.

Here's a pic of the Cruz team on Saturday:
https://www.facebook.com/stevedeace/phot...31/?type=3

Contrast that with this snapshot of a Trump volunteer center on Saturday:
http://www.examiner.com/article/is-trump-trouble

Now, I have no idea how volunteer centers are spread out. I have no idea if these are biased snap shots. What I do know from reading a lot about this stuff is that the Cruz ground team >>> Everyone else > Trump's ground team.

It's obvious that team Trump is pursuing a different strategy. Instead of the usual small-town stops to shake hands and kiss babies, Trump has gone with a mega rally approach. We'll see how it pans out, but because Iowa is a very unique place, it might not work out there as intended. It will probably work better in other states with more straightforward voting procedures.

- Iowa is fucking weird. The caucus procedure is too much of a song and dance, and Cruz has probably correctly targeted those that have done it before. Trump's team seems reliant on bringing newbs out, which is a bit of a high-risk strategy. We'll see how it works out on Monday.

Now, it's not all doom and gloom. Some factors that might lead to a Trump victory:

- Momentum. Cruz has been falling a while now, and Trump, while not rocketing up, has certainly gained ground. It's currently Rubio that has the momentum, we'll see how high he finishes. I wouldn't be shocked if Rubio came in second, but I don't think he'd get first.

- Chuck Laudner. This is Trump's Iowa state director. He is the one that guided Santorum to a weird win back in 2012.
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/santorums-chu...-candidate

You can check out Laudner's bonafides here:
http://www.p2016.org/trump/trumporg.html (scroll down to the Iowa section or just search for "Laudner").

The man is not a dummy and seems very experienced in Iowa politics, so for some of the writers that are dismissing team Trump as "clueless", well I don't buy that. I suspect Laudner just tried something new. Again, we'll see if it works or not.

- Iowa is kind of meaningless. It's very easy to spin a loss here as inconsequential. The narrative that Iowa doesn't matter (evidenced by Huckabee and Santorum spinning out shortly after their Iowa wins in 08 and 12 respectively) is almost pre-canned and so a loss there shouldn't hurt Trump as much as it would Cruz (an Iowa loss would be devastating to Cruz in my opinion).

I have spent far too much time this weekend reading up on everything election related, so I will probably unplug from it all until tomorrow night.

#Trump2016

Post: #2

Here are a couple of articles that do a good job of conveying how I'm feeling about tomorrow:

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/43...c&tid=1707

https://caffeinatedthoughts.com/2016/01/...iowa-poll/

I'd be happy if I'm proven wrong, and Trump does get a big win, but I'm tempering myself for a bit of a loss, which is okay. It's a long battle.

Post: #3

Nah, the media is under-reporting Trump's ground game numbers. Don't trust anything they say. They might be telling the truth but I seriously doubt it. I expect Trump to win, usually the polls match the caucus turnouts.

Post: #4

I expect Trump to take it by about 5% over Cruz.

But he could do even better then everyone expects.

Post: #5

^^^ Yeah, I'd say a 5% margin seems reasonable. According to the polls, which he's won the last 13/15, he's up by 8%.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/poll...can-caucus

Post: #6

Another prediction would be what all the talking heads on TV will say when TRUMP wins. How will they spin this?

"He obviously needed to win this", "its not a surprise", "he only won 'this many' delegates", "long way to go", "is this enough to give him a boost".

or if on the low end candidates like Rubio "over performs" which menas gains 2-3% points more than polls. "Trump won, but the real winner is Rubio, he is 'surging'."

Post: #7

(01-31-2016 08:54 PM)8ball Wrote:  Another prediction would be what all the talking heads on TV will say when TRUMP wins. How will they spin this?

"He obviously needed to win this", "its not a surprise", "he only won 'this many' delegates", "long way to go", "is this enough to give him a boost".

or if on the low end candidates like Rubio "over performs" which menas gains 2-3% points more than polls. "Trump won, but the real winner is Rubio, he is 'surging'."

Most likely: "Trump wuhn Eyewa, but stuhtuhstuhklly GOPs who win Eyewa don't often wuhn the Prusuduncy."

God save us from people who mean well. -storm

Post: #8

Didn't see this thread, so I'll copy what I posted in the main thread here. As you'll see, I don't buy Cruz's "ground game" over Trump's. Trump is just being quite, because why blab?

Quote:I'm going to write my predictions out now, so I can come back tomorrow night and talk about how much smarter I am than all the idiots on television.
I highly encourage you guys to do it too! I bet the people on this forum are far, far more accurate predictors than your average pundit.

100% Certain: Trump's "ground game" (God, I hate that stupid word) is far better than people have been giving him credit for. You've probably seen isolated stories about how Cruz has this giant volunteer army and Trump has absolutely nothing. Trump, the pundits say, is refusing to spend money in Iowa, and instead relying on twitter and facebook to get his message out.
The people who say this are absolutely wrong. Trump isn't going to lose a state, and possibly the whole race, because he doesn't want to spend a couple million dollars. Last year Trump made 368 million. He makes over a million dollars a day. Do you really think he wouldn't spend a week's wages to ensure he wins the presidency? I'll offer you three pieces of evidence:
1.) Trump has said repeatedly that he's going to be "unpredictable". He's talked disapprovingly of generals who announce in advance what their plans are going to be.
2.) For all the stories, no one actually knows anything about what Trump's plans are. Cruz talks up his "12,000 strong volunteer army" to anyone who'll listen, but any reporters who go to the Trump Iowa HQ get turned away. No one quite knows what he's up to.
3.) Who is the best campaign organizer in Iowa? You don't have to know a lot about politics to know it's the guy who lead Rick Santorum to victory in 2012. That guy is working for Trump.

90% certain: Trump wins Iowa. Everything is going his way. He has an advantage in the polls. Cruz is collapsing. All the enthusiasm is on Trump's side. And as I've described above, the "ground game" advantage that Cruz is clinging to is illusionary.

60%: Hillary wins Iowa. I've got 5$ riding on this with a friend, because I love placing bets on elections. I think Sanders enthusiasm is a lot like Rand Paul's in places outside of New Hampshire, very strong among people who don't really vote. But I'm not sure at all about this, because I don't really follow the democratic side.

What do you guys all think? Trump or Cruz tomorrow? Or will Rubio scrape by with a surprise win?

Post: #9

GOP: Trump wins by at least 7%. Rubio & Cruz fight it out for (very) second place. IMO, Trump's got the nomination and the general election won.

DEM: Hillary squeaks out a win. Less than 3%.

Post: #10

Iowa is weird. Last two caucus winners:

2012. Senator Sanatorium.
2008. Cuckabee.

They usually go for the Holy Rollers.

I still think Trump will win it, but it could go goofy.

Post: #11

Trump by 10%.

Cruz will only get the Catholics, the protestants and the non religious will shun him.

Post: #12

   

Post: #13

1) Trump 35%

2) Cruz 19*

3) Paul 15%

4 Rubio 12%

5) who cares

Establishment heads: Exploded

Post: #14

(01-31-2016 08:54 PM)8ball Wrote:  Another prediction would be what all the talking heads on TV will say when TRUMP wins. How will they spin this?

"He obviously needed to win this", "its not a surprise", "he only won 'this many' delegates", "long way to go", "is this enough to give him a boost".

or if on the low end candidates like Rubio "over performs" which menas gains 2-3% points more than polls. "Trump won, but the real winner is Rubio, he is 'surging'."

If Trump wins Iowa by more than 10% they will say it is the only state he will win and they will say his campaign is in trouble.

If Trump wins Iowa by less than 10% they will say it wasn't by a large enough margin and they will say his campaign is in trouble.

If he loses Iowa they will say his campaign is in trouble.

Post: #15

I'm worried about Cruz's "army" with their boots on the ground as well. Trump's been winning the new media war with his constant social media trolling but I have a feeling that a lot of the people who are going to be voting in an Iowa Republican primary aren't the types to really be exposed to that sort of media. Rather they are the types more likely to be swayed by traditional old-school means of media and communication and that seems to play into Cruz's hands. I can't imagine these people looking at Trump as Pepe the frog /pol/ memes for example.

Post: #16

I really hope someone like Rand or Carson pull out 3rd place over Rubio. If Rubio doesn't get 3rd, it'll look bad for him and he's the one I worry about the most. I don't really think Cruz is threat at all, the media is just trying to pump up anyone that comes close to Trump. They pumped up Carson, Fiorina, and now Cruz.

Best case scenario:

1: Trump by 10%+
2: Carson sneaks up huckabee/santorum style and wins the religious vote
3: Rand takes third at 12% or so
4: Cruz
5: Jeb
6: Rubio
7: Who gives a shit

Realistically I see this:

1: Trump 28%
2: Cruz 20%
3: Rubio 18%
4: Carson 10%
5: Rand 6%
6: Kasich 5%
7: Bush Low Energy

Post: #17

As with Trump's campaign overall, I'm hoping for the best but expecting the worst. There is no point to get emotionally invested over things you cannot personally control. If he gets elected president and starts doing all the things we are hoping he'll do, then it will be time to celebrate and start rubbing it in cucks' faces.

Until then, hope for the best but resign yourself to the worst at every stage of the process. For me, I'm hoping for a Trump victory while expecting Cruz to come out on top with Trump in close second. Worst case scenario is a Rubio victory with Trump in 3rd.

Post: #18

Good point all. It's hard to say what Trump's ground game is going to be like.

This is I think the only article I could find that actually had a rep from the Trump team (Laudner himself) respond directly to a question about Trump's "Ground Game"

Quote:Trump's team has been notoriously secretive about its operation, imposing what the campaign's Iowa architect, Chuck Laudner, recently described as "radio silence." . . . "There's nothing about this campaign that's like all the rest or any of those in the past," he said. "We do things different. And we reach out to people that wouldn't normally be caught dead at caucus events. And so we feel really good about our chances, we feel really good about our reach and I think you're going to have a surprise on a caucus night."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory...t-36628809

All right, we'll see.

(02-01-2016 04:39 AM)Fast Eddie Wrote:  As with Trump's campaign overall, I'm hoping for the best but expecting the worst. There is no point to get emotionally invested over things you cannot personally control. If he gets elected president and starts doing all the things we are hoping he'll do, then it will be time to celebrate and start rubbing it in cucks' faces.

Until then, hope for the best but resign yourself to the worst at every stage of the process. For me, I'm hoping for a Trump victory while expecting Cruz to come out on top with Trump in close second. Worst case scenario is a Rubio victory with Trump in 3rd.

That's probably the best way of looking at this whole thing. It does feel good to win though.

Post: #19

GOP: Trump loses by a landslide. It turns out that this was all just a carefully crafted plan to embarrass the American political system. Trump stock goes up 40%.

DEM: Hillary wins, but can't make a public statement following the win because she had an accident in her pantsuit and her Depends are being changed out by her advisory team.

Post: #20

I read that there's a 15% threshold so the question is where the supporters of third tier candidates will put their votes.

Post: #21

I'm fairly confident Trump will win but Cruz might just pull it out. The biggest indicator will be turnout. I think ~125,000 turned out last year and this year that's expected to be at least 150,000, which is a good sign. If turnout is much higher than usual Trump wins. If it's just a bit above normal it's a close call.

For what it's worth, Scott Adams, who has been correct on everything with Trump so far, predicted a Trump win weeks ago.

Also when it comes to "ground game," I think people overestimate this aspect. One of the first lessons you learn in sales is that you should remove yourself, the salesman, from the equation as much as possible. You need to disappear in the equation between consumer and product.

"Going around knocking on doors" and making cold calls is a very salesmenesque strategy, whereas Trump's is more akin to content marketing. Usually your door being knocked on is going to be an annoyance. Trump is letting you invite him in with his rallies and social media strategy. He gives everyone that shows up to his rallies caucus information, and do we really expect that people who have waited for hours in the cold and snow just to see him and thousands more being turned away are not going to show up to vote? Really?

Look for those turnout indicators. We'll see what happens.

Post: #22

Damnit. My feeling was right.

Oh well, on to the next!

Post: #23

Ground game is still important.You need boots on the ground. Knocking on doors. Calling people. Driving people to the voting centers.

There's a time for crafting your message and also a time for physically connecting with people and getting them to take action.

In a very competitive race, that's what it takes to win.