Post: #26

NTP, I was thinking China is forced to devalue it's currency in order to manufacture the funds necessary to prop up their crashing stock market along with providing liquidity to their banks which may be in real trouble, if not insolvent.

I'm of the thought that country is fucked, to put it mildly. I read somewhere the stock market in the US is like 30% or less owned by individuals whereas in China it's 80%. At the top of the Chinese market last year you had everyone to the last fisherman borrowing money from the banks to invest in the market. Those people got wiped out, those banks are hiding huge losses, the large institutional investors are still banned from selling, so who's buying? My guess it's the government, and where are they getting the money? Through devaluation of their currency and perhaps being added to the IMF reserve basket where they will now have mandatory buyers as well?

This is just what I'm gleaming from what I've been seeing. I could certainly be very wrong. Would be interesting if the China guys here on the forum could chime in if they are seeing any changes there on the ground.

Post: #27

Onto, you bring up great points and I essential agree (as does a lot of the big money), but what if the Chinese just let it crash and burn or even stoke the fire to have a bonfire competition with the west. It is true that the Chinese have huge non-performing loans (NPL´s) and they have some serious banking issues that are tied to the black market. Of course the government is intervening (with different games than the west, but still games hiding the true picture) and being inefficient in the use of capital. They are making the money up as well.

I am of the opinion that they understand this and they have decided to accelerate the collapse as they believe that they are more likely to survive because they have a few cards up their sleeve, particularly the ace spades. One of their concerns is to maintain the support of their people. I propose that they have the largest gold hoard on the planet and have been actually increasing it by 1,000 tons for over 24-30 months between the 2013 - early 2015 time frame and they are actively encouraging the population to increase their gold holdings (even if they are also increasing their paper positions. They will also suffer less damage as their debt is almost 100% internal, whereas countries like the U.S. owe about 50% of their debt to foreign creditors. If one thinks in terms of suffering minimal losses while they fight (which is generally a good thing) they can be overcome by an opponent willing to take a greater risk and suffer significant loss (like sacrificing your queen in chess) in order to position themselves for a death blow. Of course there is risk, but as one of my military mentors would say, ¨no balls, no babies.¨

Post: #28

Generally, I am not planning to drill down into the tactical level with items on this thread for two reasons. Firstly, I do not want to take away from the attention of the larger strategic elements and illustrating their connections and secondly, sometimes going into the details will tend to pull one´s attention down a rat hole that can lead into a less productive use of one´s time. In the case of my previous example of the Chinese having cards up their sleeve, particularly the Ace of Spades, I will make an exception, but I do not want to write pages and pages of details, you may dig further as you desire.

Over the past 15 years, examine the road and rail structures that Chinese companies have built or have been a major player in building with the associated African governments. Examine this particularly in terms of Central Africa and East Africa. Look at the low intensity conflict over the past 5-15 years in this same geography concerning Chinese military assets. Investigate when and why the U.S. established the African Command. Inquire into the volume of new heavy mining (and transport) equipment in East Africa, but especially Central African Countries over the past 5-10 years. Examine the mining production of South Africa from 2010 – 2015 and note the 60% reduction, but at the same time, the Rand Refinery (one of the largest in the world; before 1985 almost 40% of above ground gold refining came from this location) increased its refining output almost 300%. Where did this output go? Peer into the increased number of privately leased large cargo aircraft from Cape Town to Hong Long, Shanghai, Beijing and Dubai. Investigate the reasons for adding South Africa to the BRICS nations. Look at aircraft and ship cargos from Brazil to South Africa before and after South Africa became involved in the BRICS. Inquire into Swiss refining over the past 15 years and note the differences from 2010-2015. Why would they be refining vast amounts of 1 kilo bars when the western standard is not kilo bars? Investigate the flow of gold into Switzerland from Western Europe, but especially London and Rome (be cautious here as it will turn into a rat hole). Examine the number of larger cargo aircraft (particularly B747, A330-340 and A-380) from Switzerland to Asia (and parts of the Gulf) from the 2013-2015 time-frame. Who leased these aircraft and what were their destinations?

Post: #29

I was generally asked about the U.S. Pentagon military vs. Russian Federation military skirmish in Syria as it relates to point 5 in thread 4. Here is a brief sketch, admittedly with the fine details being outdated. Short of NBC (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) interaction, the U.S. would maintain air superiority in short order, Russia would not deploy the super-advanced anti-aircraft missiles, but will instead destroy a modicum of aircraft towards a long term attrition battle against the U.S. as well as a public relations battle concerning the sentiment of U.S. Citizenry. Russia will look to make significant tactical gains at sea through the employment of super-advanced anti-ship missiles against U.S. carriers and perhaps, but probably not strategic submarines in the region. The main focus on both fronts will be electronic warfare for the Russians. Should this happen, the U.S. will then un-mothball some older carriers and bring them into service. Instead, I think the U.S. will withdraw the carriers in or from the Med and Persian Gulf for the time being to negate any naval attrition gain for the Russians and reduce the potential for negative publicity should a few carriers get deep sixed. The key gain for Russia will be the destruction of satellite and command and control aircraft that would be used in the ground game and this will not be in the media.

The ground game is now tougher for me to call as the General staff has been selectively weeded for the past decade. Before, I would have said that the Pentagon military would not be involved in a large scale ground game as the probability of NBC escalation would produce an outcome scenario that would not overtly benefit the Pentagon military. Instead, the ground game would be run by grey mercenary forces (which more significant now than a decade ago). You could see over 100,000 mercenary types being deployed; which are off of the radar of most non-military viewers, with perhaps some pentagon special operations support and general air superiority. The Pentagon would let the Middle Eastern partners trade their bodies for the land. Now I am just not sure, which concerns me. In this scenario, it depends on what other Middle Eastern forces actually engage (Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran). There are a large number of possible outcomes for which both sides have prepared. It becomes a question of which Generals are making the decisions and the position of (integrated) (multi-national) ground forces based on their probability assessments.

Another key element that has changed over the last decade is overt NATO support for such an expedition in Syria. Actions so far, indicate to me that NATO (in terms of France, Germany and England) will actually try to retard this conflict and if unable, they will let the U.S. hammer away alone and use the outcome (positive US, positive Russian, positive Arab Middle Eastern or positive non-Arab Middle Eastern to include various combinations of the four to their advantage. Russia knows and I posit have strategically war gamed the scenarios with an economic emphasis, where the U.S. has focused more on the tactical military solution and strategic geographic boundary emphasis. Russia will use it to continually fracture NATO, whereas the U.S. will focus on geography and energy flows. Chinese participation is a wild card and I will reserve thoughts on this for now.

Post: #30

London banking power is being challenged by the Chinese. The Chinese want to further separate Great Britain from Europe and they are doing it financially through Yuan swap facilities that will be centered in Frankfurt as previously mentioned. With Britain being separated, it will be easier to turn the European Union (EU) toward Russia and the Eurasian trade zone and loosen the bonds within NATO. The British separation from the EU will be a pivotal moment for Europe. I posit that the British will do this in order to receive a Yuan swap hub in London that will continue to make them a trading center in the world that will eventually be used as a potential counter-balance vs. Frankfurt in regard to long term inter-European strategy. The Chinese have maneuvered Western Europe again to their advantage while pitting NATO allies against one another economically.

Post: #31

I will be very limited in my tactical discussions, but here is a quick thumb nail. The Russians tactics are stronger on the counter offensive. They would allow Turkey to be the obvious aggressor and make them extend their supplies lines and then hammer them hard (to include the use of tactical devices). Should Saudi Arabia join the fray, their oil fields would be turned to glass and their largest cities leveled back to pre-WWI tribal status. Another wild card would be the potential use of one of Saudi Arabia´s 2013 game changing devices against ???

Back to strategy; Syria could be the spark/diversion for an incursion through Ukraine, Estonia and Latvia by U.S. led NATO (the exact countries would tell a larger story) forces. If there is a bigger battle (Barbarossa style), this is where it would occur. I give this a low probability as it would lead to a deafening response from Russia. Is the insanity such that the U.S. would sacrifice Western Europe rather than have it turn east (economically)? From a military leadership standpoint I would venture the answer would be no, from some sociopathic political leader whose strings are being pulled from some grey source… maybe.

Post: #32

I have received multiple PM´s about studying geopolitics so I will share a few thoughts.

I recommend history as your base and focus on the interaction of civilizations as history progresses (to include geography). Then you can layer on top of (or perhaps underneath) these interactions the cultural elements that form the foundation of these civilizations. You may choose to understand how these cultural elements evolved and interacted in the formation of a particular civilization in detail. This can be further broken down to include the study of tribes, languages, and symbols (keep an eye to value systems at this point). Next is the recommendation to study the foundation of the nation-state and individual nations in particular (especial in the light of previously mentioned areas). This may lead into the study of political systems. Another layer will be the military evolution of the tribe, culture, civilization, and nation. As a more modern element of the military evolution consider understanding Operations Research (which grew as a result of WWII). Continuing with the layered approach you may choose to understand the economic developments at each of these levels; Operations Research (OR) comes into play here post WWII as well. These are all done within the tribe/culture/civilization/national/ as well as between them. Next is the study of social interaction and dynamics to include the psychological. After or as a precursor to all of this, you may choose to study the individuals (to include the great men) who were/are involved in the developments of all of the previously mentioned points. A study of the hidden; or what I have termed grey, factors is helpful in filling in gaps. I hesitated on making such a post, but I can see that making a general (my next) post on this will be beneficial.

All of this should be enough to move individuals forward. These factors and many more can be used as data inputs in your brain (as well as in modern super-computers) to provide probabilistic outcome scenarios that will allow you to make better decisions as you interact with your world.

If you want to develop greater acumen in this field, you will need to study your own psychology, mode of thinking, and cultural biases (to include emotions) (AI does not have these as a plus or a minus). Studying yourself, like in Game, is paramount. Without going into detail, firstly consider the concepts of linear and relation thinking as it applies to yourself as it will influence all of the points previously mentioned in the first paragraph.

Post: #33

Greymen is a layered concept that draws its modern origin from the masonic chessboard. These pieces (men) move between the black squares and the white squares on the chessboard (of life) unlike the white chess pieces and the black chess pieces (which must stay on their respective colors).

At one level they are the pieces that belong to one of the alphabet soup organizations of the planet. At another level they are pieces going between governments like Kissinger or Brzezinski. At another level they are former heads of government (Presidents, Prime Ministers, Chancellors) going between governments and/or international organizations. At yet another level they are people of notoriety going between international organizations like Gates and Soros. The can be courtiers like Sir Michael Peat, Queen’s Keeper of the Privy Purse or they can be families from Rothchild to Rockerfeller.

At yet other levels they are popular music icons, or famous actors, or industrial titans, or religious leaders.

It can then transition from individuals (families) to organizations or royal lineages. The organizations can be national, international, private (to include foundations), industrial, religious and on and on.

On an even larger scale it can be referred to those going between good and evil, or moving between order and chaos (in their language) and back to order, ad infinitum.

I am not saying that this concept is a ´good´ one or it serves the general welfare of mankind, because it does not. What I am saying is that to understand how things work and make more accurate conclusions and deny these types of pieces (men and/or organizations) will prevent you from seeing things as they really are; through mis-information, dis-information, lies, mis-direction and obfuscation. Seeing (and experiencing) things as they really are, is the purpose of your senses (not going down the religious path on this post). In general, when you are taught to deny your senses, like you deny your masculinity, you are more easily manipulated and controlled for the benefit of others. This is why your attention is paramount.

There are ancient Arts associated with these groups that have been passed down for more millennia than people would care to believe. The three major Arts include the art of the Kings, the art of the Generals, and the art of the Priests. Some of the minor Arts include the art of the Statesmen and the art of the Merchants. Tradecraft arts for alphabet soup types are basic (in comparison) and would be a sub section under one of the other minor Arts.

They are all applied now under different terminology. For example, in the field of science, the scientists (generally) are looked up to as the experts (priests) and you cannot question them if you do not have a Ph.D. from an ivory institution. The field of entertainment and cultural change expressed in Hollywood as the music and film industry are under the art of the Priests. Back in Ancient Egypt the wondering players (thespians) were known as the Wandering Stars. It is not a linguistic accident that those popular actors and musicians today are known as Stars. It is simply that most are unconscious of these machinations that have been on-going since the birth of civilizations (that have also been given to us). I put forth that it is not necessary to go deep down the rat hole and touch the darkness in order to understand the darkness.

The key to understanding the Greymen is to ascertain what oaths or allegiances they have taken. Then examine the conflicts between the oaths. For example, a U.S. military general/admiral who has taken an oath to support and defend the Constitution, then is asked to become a member of the Knights Templar (Malta, etc., etc.) and take an oath to the Crown (of England). A Secretary of State who has taken an oath to his/her country but beforehand took an oath to the Pilgrim Society. German Chancellors who have a post WWII oath to allied powers and to Germany at the same time. The list is extra-ordinarily long. The point being, there will be an inherent conflicts in the oaths that will be used against the individual, in order to influence a military or (geo) political decision that will have rippling effects.

Again, I urge caution, concerning the depth of the rat hole and the diversion of your attention in this area for long periods of time. This is the chess game on one level. The Greymen also transition vertically to another chessboard (and there are different Greymen, known by other names) and then yet another level, etc. You have a three dimension chess game as illustrated in the 1960´s (predictive programing) Star Trek series where they show a three dimensional transparent chessboard with black and white pieces.

Post: #34

(02-20-2016 10:47 PM)NASA Test Pilot Wrote:  London banking power is being challenged by the Chinese. The Chinese want to further separate Great Britain from Europe and they are doing it financially through Yuan swap facilities that will be centered in Frankfurt as previously mentioned. With Britain being separated, it will be easier to turn the European Union (EU) toward Russia and the Eurasian trade zone and loosen the bonds within NATO. The British separation from the EU will be a pivotal moment for Europe. I posit that the British will do this in order to receive a Yuan swap hub in London that will continue to make them a trading center in the world that will eventually be used as a potential counter-balance vs. Frankfurt in regard to long term inter-European strategy. The Chinese have maneuvered Western Europe again to their advantage while pitting NATO allies against one another economically.

Let me just start by saying that all of your posts have deeply interested me and spurred me to do even more research into current geopolitics.

However, why do you feel that the EU would even economically shift from West to East when there are to this day approximately 30,000 American troops stationed in Europe? From my view at least, it seems that such a shift would not be possible, even gradually, unless some catastrophic worldwide event happens.

Post: #35

Thanks for interacting. I hope others do as well and interact with each other. I do not mind sharing, but my intent is not to monologue here.

This is not a done deal yet, as it is part of a larger geo-political struggle. Shifting from west to east is firstly about trade to the east (in terms of the Eurasian Trade Zone (ETZ) which I think will eventually be called something like the EEU or Eastern Eurasian Union). I put forth that Western (and Eastern) European nations understand that it is in their economic self-interest to move eastward in order to thrive. The east will have more basic goods (of which energy is prime) to offer and Europeans (east and west) in a more timely and cost effective manner. They will also be able to trade larger portions of their goods in their native currency(ies) that will become stronger when the (not current) dollar weakens (unless there is a major revaluation as was rejected in 2014). Shipping time will be less (with high speed and heavy rail infrastructure being built). This is currently in progress, a relative end state has not been yet been achieved. After increased trade relations would come a greater fractioning of NATO, more political independence from Washington and then closer political ties between Europe and the ETZ. This evolves over time, which can be decades. I will make a general post about some Soviet studies done from 1930-1955 as it relates these types of changes.

A small outward example of trade concerns shipping. Most of the shipping containers leaving the U.S. now are empty (hence the quantity of non-military exports being less in general); dollars are being dishoarded (and transformed) from national reserves. I understand that the media does not present it this way, actually they are trying to paint a diametrically opposed picture. It is true that many foreign loans are in dollars (watch as this change with the addition of China to the IMF and the combination of the AIIB/AIB) and to pay off the loans more dollars are needed. Which is why we will look for more bilateral trade in currencies other than the dollars (oil for Euros, etc. being a large example), a decrease in the percentage of dollars held as reserves by various central banks, and the introduction of some type of (gold-backed) trade-note. One of the biggest factors in shipping is time as it relates to distance (and speed) that is often measured in weeks not days.

Your point with troops in Germany (and other parts of Western Europe) is an important one as Germany is the center of Gravity for (Western) Europe and the U.S. will continue to use force as a counter-balance (in maintaining the Petro Dollar system). This also why the build-up of NATO forces on the Russian border is significant; is it posturing or with serious intent? As I have encouraged before, examine Germany economically and politically. China and Russia are tag teaming here and are attempting to pit the industrial against the political. My analysis is that they are succeeding. Observe the amount and value of business dealings between Germany and Russia as well as between Germany and China (this includes energy as well). Dig into to the notion and actions of the Yuan swap facilities and trade hubs. Look at trade (and the transfer of industrial technology) between Germany and Russia as well as Germany and China. It is not an accident that Frankfurt was chosen to be the center (instead of London). China is pitting Germany against England (or Frankfurt against London in the Banking circles). Examine which banking/financial oriented players in London support the British exit from the EU and which political/military figures support the continuation in the EU (particularly from a national security angle). Other Relationships to observe are between the German Bundesbank and the other Central Banks, the relationship between Deutsche bank and the Bundesbank; the relationship between Deutsche bank and other private banks (in London and New York). These will give indirect indications of the struggle and movement. Watch as most of Western Europe goes to 0% interest rate while the Bundesbank holds out. Pay attention to the accumulation of gold in the Bundesbank. Remain vigilant as NATO and Russia move conventional and non-convention forces in the theatre.

Post: #36

Modern warfare is often visualized as mechanistic, and I have attempted to weave economic factors and some basic cultural factors (more emphasis is needed here). I also wanted to begin to integrate this slightly with social and cognitive elements.

I made a reference to the following in a previous post and I wanted to expand slightly. The Soviets focused a modest portion of their research efforts from 1930-1955 to understand the influence and manipulation of culture. What they found was that it normally took about 70 years to change a culture (through the cultural industry and the cultural leaders. These were Soviet terms). In the late 1970´s, this number had cycled to under 20 years, around the turn of the 21st century this number was almost halved and by 2015 this number is under 5 years. This means that culture can be significantly changed (by various powers) in less than 5 years where it once took 3 generations.

Some of the technology that we are given provides useful tools and benefits mankind, but they were created for other purposes, not to help mankind. This is done at an emotive, not a factual level. Generally, people are programed through father figures whom they unconsciously believe would never lie to or hurt them (because he is your father). People will not be able to think or reason for themselves and they will expect the cultural industry (Hollywood (movie and music), fashion, main stream media) to do the thinking and reasoning for them.

From 1950-1975 the Soviets focused a significant portion of their scientific research to issues relating to the brain and the mind (as two separate entities).

One of the areas of research was the reconstructing heterodynes (having alternating currents of two different frequencies that are combined to produce two new frequencies, the sum and difference of the original frequencies The west is generally on a 60 Hertz power grid. The Russian Federation is on a 50 Hertz power grid, every civilized industrial center in America is a potential reradiating weapon of this extremely low frequency (ELF) field. In other words, there was no need to build an antenna or re-radiating system, as there are 110 volt systems in homes; and people are also served with gas pipes, miles and miles of conductors, cold water pipes, etc. It is global infrastructure that can be used to fight a global (non-mechanistic) war. Post 1975, newer electromagnetic technologies have been developed and re-radiating systems have needed some modification. You have seen them more visibly since 2005.

Cultural, psychological and psycho-tronic warfare are not to be underestimated.

Post: #37

The peace in Syria, albeit a good thing, is temporary. I posit that the larger message was to placate the world from an eruption due to fear of some type of NBC event. I put forth that the probability has decreased, but it will remain at a high level while a number of nations have significant offensive forces standing by near the borders. There are a number of parties that will lose more in the long run with peace and hence they will not allow it to thrive. These parties (one of them being major) will give the appearance of peace with the left hand, and allow it to remain in some fashion as long as it is to their temporary advantage, while with the right hand they will subvert the process with mercenary forces. These parties have interests that are tied together although they sometimes appear to be at odds with one another. Those who are more oriented toward trade will make the larger gains as trade (other than arms) flourishes more during peace rather than war. What I am looking for are the following things:

1) Movement of Turkish ground forces away from the border and the reduction of engagements with the Kurds. Probability: low to very low
2) Decrease in the Number of Russian military air sorties in northern Syria. Probability: moderate at first, decreasing to low.
3) Decrease engagement by al-Nusra front. Probability very low.
4) Decreased conflicts with ISIS forces. Probability: Medium at first, moving quickly to low then very low.
5) Movement of a large portion of the Saudi Army away from the border. Probability low to moderate with current regime.
6) Democratic elections in Syria in the near future: Probability medium moving to high as numbers 1-5 above take place.

If more of these things happen, the greater probability of peace. I would be surprised if any of these items (other than #6) come to fruition in 2016.

What could shift the balance is the collapse of the power base of the house of Saud and replacement of this power. Replaced with who will be most interesting. I would suggest that it will be pro-Eurasian Trade. And this will bring about #5. This will shift the focus and pressure back to Turkey. As this shift occurs, look for Russian forces to accumulate in Armenia in order to force turkey to move forces away from the Kurds (#1). This in turn will influence #2. The only issues left are #3 and #4 and #3 will go by the wayside with Russian airpower and Syrian ground forces. The only speed-bump with be #4, which may be reduced with the collapse of a Saudi power base. The wild card will then be the mercenaries backed by the farm.

Post: #38

Very interesting read. Please keep it up NTP

Post: #39

(02-20-2016 10:47 PM)NASA Test Pilot Wrote:  London banking power is being challenged by the Chinese. The Chinese want to further separate Great Britain from Europe and they are doing it financially through Yuan swap facilities that will be centered in Frankfurt as previously mentioned. With Britain being separated, it will be easier to turn the European Union (EU) toward Russia and the Eurasian trade zone and loosen the bonds within NATO. The British separation from the EU will be a pivotal moment for Europe. I posit that the British will do this in order to receive a Yuan swap hub in London that will continue to make them a trading center in the world that will eventually be used as a potential counter-balance vs. Frankfurt in regard to long term inter-European strategy. The Chinese have maneuvered Western Europe again to their advantage while pitting NATO allies against one another economically.

The Brit never view themselves as part of the EU to begin with, but rather as of US henchman so to speak in keeping a close watch on US interest across the Atlantic, by keeping the French and German in check. Chinese exploiting this long mistrust between the European powers and pushing their own agenda.

Post: #40

I presented elements of this post on another thread discussing depression in the U.S. related to question about the auditing and abolishing the Federal Reserve as well as bank money not flowing to people or businesses.

I present an expanded version here.

I recommend that you look at the audit produced in 2009 after the bond debauchery in 2008. Congressmen Paul led this and that influenced the 2011 report. I am of the opinion that another audit of the Federal Reserve will produce very little (and they will point to the 2011 audit). It also depends what they would audit. If they choose to look at detailed transactions at the Federal Reserve window at the Bank of New York and then the connection to the ESF, watch people disappear. I think there is close to a zero percent chance of this happening. One thing is that those involved in the auditing do not know what questions to ask. There are a few out there that do and some Congressional members are aware of them (one was jailed unreasonable for a decade and part of the condition for his release (in my opinion) was based on not discussing, supporting or examining certain areas directly). The pressure exerted on these Congressmen would be tremendous and oppressive.

To more directly address your point with the money not reaching businesses and individuals, you are correct. The bottom line is there will be less domestic capital formation and wages will eventually be reduced (relative to purchasing power) and the number of working poor (slaves) will increase as the decades roll by. The idea of the government (or some central authority) redistributing what has been given to the central authority is economically flawed. The issue as it relates to prosperity for the citizenry is the proper allocation of capital (determined by a free market (and our markets are not free, but rather manipulated) in an efficient manner based on the desires of the market (citizenry). Therefore, one of the biggest problems now is the mis-allocation of capital. This will connect to capital flight in its many forms and it will come full circle in our discussion with financial repression (to deal with the capital flight that central authorities are against as it erodes their ability to control). It is not just a U.S. issue (FACTA); it is a world-wide issue (GACTA). Consider how similar laws just seem to magically appear across the world, or how world encompassing issues seem to seamlessly integrate. A small example would be bio-metric passports. Within a period of less than 5 years, 193 countries were on the same standard like magic.

The large issue that you will see on the screen of life as a result will be the contraction of credit that is being used to carry stocks, bonds and other investment instruments. Margin call will lead to forced sales which will lead to weaken prices which will lead to more forced sales which lead to weaken prices and on and on. What you will see in the headlines is: Market Panic.

This will be dealt with in a long string of events. One of the first will probably be if the Saudi regime is deposed, the 2.3 (maybe up to 5) trillion that they have in an ESF dark pool account will disappear. This will help but will probably not be applied to hold back the hole in the dyke considering that the fall of the House of Saud will negatively affect the Petro-Dollar and also help bring stability per the previous post concerning the 6 points to diffusing tensions in Syria. Taking the 141 tons of gold from Libya, the 33 tons of gold from Ukraine, the confiscation of Saudi gold in Switzerland, and then the possibility of hidden House of Saud wealth, as well as a few others is reminiscent of another nation in the early 1940´s.

Here is something to ponder, why was the Secret Service under the Department of the Treasury (after 2003 it was placed under Homeland Security developing electronic crime task forces to….. prevent electronic attacks)? What is the purpose of the ESF? Is there a relationship? Originally the Secret Service was designed to investigate counterfeiting after the Civil War (remember those greenbacks) and was then transformed into first domestic intelligence and counter-intelligence agency (publically anyways) whose missions were supposedly taken over by the FBI, ATF, IRS, alphabet soup. In 1934 it was the Secret Service who was expanded to include involvement with the FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation). The illusionists will have you focus your attention on physical protection. Also examine who has been the Secretary of the Treasury for the past 70 years, to include the present Secretary (A railroad and transport guy….hmmm what types of things would you want to transport that could make for a connection with the Treasury, denominated in $100 dollar bills (off of the books))? I have cautioned about the rat hole before, but you need not go too far down this one to see some major extra-curricular activities.

Fractional reserve banking can work and it actually did from 1913-1934. If you look at the strength of the dollar from that period you will notice some variation, but stable for the most part, it is after 1934 that the nose dive occurred. Section 10 of the Federal Reserve act of 1934 allowed the Federal Reserve through the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase foreign currencies, financial securities, and other financial instruments in order to control the dollar’s value and conduct open market operations without the assistance or approval of the Federal Reserve. So, to answer your question, no the Federal Reserve is not directly to blame per its original design. But that was then and it was transformed in 1934, so there after was a different story. If you want to study more history examine records of former Federal Reserve Governor Eugene Meyer (who resigned in 1933) calling out FDR stating in the Washington Post that the Federal Reserve that established in 1913 was no longer the same and would not function properly. He further stated that the modified Federal Reserve had been shorn of its power to formulate an independent credit policy and it could no longer regulate the flow of funds into and out of this country, as it did when the United States was on the gold standard. So, rather than formulating monetary policy, the Federal Reserve implemented policies devised by others, principally the U.S. Treasury. This may seem like splitting hairs, but it is critical. I will expand with a larger point. I put forth that the Federal Reserve is presented as the wizard, but it is in front of the curtain with Dorthy and the gang, to hide the Wizard behind the curtain which is the ESF. I will not get into it here, but the ESF grew much larger and expanded its´ influence after the inception of the OSS in the 1940´s.

In the near future, I would not be surprised to see the Federal Reserve abolished (or perhaps transformed) and many will yell, hurray. This has always be an option before loss of faith or a currency collapse. The debt can be transformed or wiped away and a new Treasury Note (TN), as opposed to a Federal Reserve Note (FRN), will be created by the Department of the Treasury and this will be like a domestic U.S. Dollar. Watch for this new TN to be devalued and Americans feel what the rest of the world does when they do not have a reserve currency status. There will be games played and it will appear to be backed by gold (like the Euro was in its inception by 15% and then down to 10% and 5%, but a holder of a Euro note could never say, I want some of that yellow stuff for my piece of paper) and the games will evolve. But what about all of the FRN´s that are stored by the pallet in (central) bank vaults in other nations? That will be interesting. I am inclined to think that they will be considered an International dollar (ID) that will not be accepted as legal tender within the U.S., but can be used outside of the U.S. because nations tend to go to war over trade issues and this would be a big one.

This illusion will give away and in exchange for foreign goods, other nations will say, I do not want your TN (Treasury Note), I want X (or Y). This will force the U.S. to produce more domestically (which will be a good thing…but wait…) to make up for the lack of imports and people will do without like nations do now or have in past centuries. The domestic issue will tie into the Trade Agreements (TTIP, TPP, etc.), robotics and the growth of foreign companies that have been growing and expanding in the U.S for the past two decades (look at all of the free trade zones by state, you will be surprised). The rules will be slightly different between companies and workers and these companies will (and already have been) divert a significant portion their output abroad (particularly to the country of origin). The new U.S. Treasury Note will be devalued and the domestic economy will suffer and citizens will feel the effects of inflation like they do in second and third world countries.

Post: #41

As it relates to thread 1, China is now allowing domestic banks to issue asset back securities up to almost $8 billion. This will include the repackaging of non-performing loans. This means that China is signaling that it will be entering the derivative game at a higher level. Over time, look for the amounts to increase, the variety of derivatives to increase and the number of larger banks involved to increase. Bad loans come off of the books and go into another garbage hole. They are managing the numbers on an eternal face saving game, but they are also indicating that they are willing to bring out heavier equipment on the economic battle field. They will be using these new loans appear as investments/assets/receivables. The debt is not going away, it is becoming somebody else´s (to include other (government) entities) responsibility. I expect these types of actions to increase as this economic game of chicken accelerates. I am of the opinion that China is using it to pressure the U.S. to accept a modified revaluation scenario based on the 2014 agreement. In terms of capitalism, it should serve as a warning sign as the capital markets will become more obscure. The amount of money placed in these types of products is slightly under $3 trillion, but is increasing at a rate of 50-70% per year.

As it relates to thread 5, I estimate that China will have control over the shipping trade lanes in the South China Sea (SCS) by 2020. The strategic importance of this geography is large as there are numerous underground data cables that run to South East Asia via the SCS and $5-6 trillion in trade crosses these waters per year.

Post: #42

I posted the following in relation to Russia and the conflict in Syria.

/thread-53767...pid1237735

In my regard to my posts on geo-politics, I will add a thread 6 as I have alluded to it in the past. This thread will be Cultural under-currents. This thread is a geo-political pillar as I have suggested in many of the PM´s.

Here is the post in its entirety.


There is an even longer historic dynamic with the Kurds as being a natural buffer between the Ottoman Empire, the Persian Empire and the Russian Empire. The Kurds reinvented themselves as Muslims after the Arab invasion and conquest, as Sunni Muslims after the Ottoman Turks conquest, as Shiite Muslims after the Persian conquest, as Kurdish Nationalists in the aftermath of World War I and dissolution of the Ottoman Empire. Since the conquest of Persia in the 7th century A.D., the Kurdish independent nature has been continuously suppressed by others.

Before the Muslim conquest in the 7th century A.D. they were nomadic tribesmen inhabiting the Caucasus and the upper Tigris. Before these conquests, these tribesmen recognized the over-lordship of the Aremenia King which then became a province of the Sassanid Kingdom that was handed over to the Roman empire late part of the 3rd century A.D. and ceded back to Persia less than a century later. Moving back further to the 5th century B.C., they were known as the Kardouchoi against the Greek Spartans fighting their retreat from the attempted conquest of ancient Persia, before that the influence of the Median (Medes) kingdom in the 8th century B.C. Between the 6th and 8th century B.C. the Assyrians exemplified the imperial rule that would become the template for later empires (Greek and Roman).

The 8-9th century B.C. to the 12th century B.C. was a relative dark age for the near east that was marked by migration (to include migration to the north).

The time before the 12th Century B.C. illustrates the progressive technological and commercial overshadowing of Kurdistan by neighboring Mesopotamian cultures. This was the dawning of more urban life. The time between 1200 BC and 3000 BC indicate a power struggle between the military forces of the mountains (Kurdistan) and the plains of the Fertile Crescent (Mesopotamia and Syria) for political and economic control of this most civilized and richest of the planet at that time. This time-frame marks the coming of the Aryans and the beginning of the transformation of Kurdistan into an Indo-European-speaking society, which culminated in the classical period.

Moving back in time further, pre-dating the Hurrians (Hurri was the tongue of northern Syria, Northern Mesopotamia, part of Armenia and contiguous sections of Asia minor) in 3000 B.C to the time before the ancient Hurrians in 9000-10,000 B.C., there have been discoveries of technological advances made in the Kurdish highlands pre-dating the rise of Mesopotamia in 3000 B.C. This vast amount of archaeological, zoological, and botanical evidence of Kurdistan's crucial importance to the development of civilization is under-estimated on a good day.

This is an epic part of the history of the modern world that may go back even further and this culture has been trading with Slavic cultures for thousands of years. As it relates to a larger issue, tribal cultures have been and will continue to be eradicated as they are not compatible with modern (post Greco-Roman) ideologies and particularly the modern nation state (post-1648).

Post: #43

Thanks for sharing all your wisdom NTP, I wish I had more to contribute to your wonderful threads like this one, but for now i'm happy just sitting in the shade of your knowledge tree.

Post: #44

This was posted in response to a good economic article relating to the capitalism and world war.

One of the largest problems today in the ´market´ that is keeping things in the managed state, is that risk is not adequately priced in the financial instruments (various derivatives and derivations of derivatives with the assets market to fantasy and not marked to market as a basic example), so people and institutions are not able to correctly gauge the time value of money (capital not currency) in a more objective fashion. There are people and institutions taking enormous risks and receiving negative real returns based on interest rates. So the first solution proposed is not a real solution, rather it is moving the shell under another nut and the ´can is kicked down the road´ as people continue to believe (have confidence) in the system as they are getting fleeced through the mis-allocation of capital and many may not have their capital returned to them. Hence the eventual need for war to distract from the implosion.

Trade by definition will decrease war, as war is the ultimate in the mis-allocation of capital (WWII did not bring the U.S. or the World out of the Great Depression in a direct sense). War is always bodies (human capital) for land; where resources are used to destroy capital (structures, bodies, productive endeavors). The land has the resources whether it is the water, the oil, the gold, the rice, the castle, the women or the strategic value of the land itself, ad. infinitum. Capitalism only requires war if you do not allow the business that is not economically competitive (in relation to the customers) to die a natural death and go bankrupt or cease to operate because it is not profitable (allowing them to operate thusly is by definition, not capitalism). Otherwise it is greed and lust for power. Currently there is mal-investment as the capital is being mis-allocated and eventually the capital is being destroyed (to include capital being retired or taken out of service). Capital destruction is the root of the economic malaise today. The larger the war, the easier it is to mis-direct public attention; and the puppeteers continue the show.

When you study the transitions from one power (Empire) to another power (Empire) there is always a financial component (event before the 20th century when gold and silver were the commonly used). It was obviously so in with the transition from Britain to the U.S., it is so now with the transition from the U.S. to (I posit) China and it will be so when there is the transition (I posit) from China to ??? near the turn of the 22nd century.

These modern notions can be traced back to the reign of Queen Elizabeth I in the 16th century with her Prime Minister when they began to implement the notion of ¨most favored nation¨ concept with trade (not from 1971). You can also trace them back to the City States of Italy in the 14th century and the use of silver for a domestic trade and gold for international trade. What happened from 1330 - 1345 is a parallel to what is happening today. The puppet masters have played this show a number of times between the 14th and 21st centuries. It is regrettable that people are being awed by the variation on a theme once again.

The notion of economic growth being related to energy gain is an important concept that very few people discuss. In reality, it is the net energy cost (as well as net energy gain) that is critical as it takes energy to find or create energy. It is this surplus that is the key to the engine of economic growth. Short of breaking the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, this will be pivotal. Also it is the neo-liberal capitalism that requires war because it emphasizes a strong state and its intervention, not because of the laissez-faire capitalism and open markets. If this is de-emphasized, (I postulate that) the outcome would be different. This is why thread one of my five (now six) threads on geo-politics and monetary issues is energy.

I posit a four part solution.

1) Promote trade among nations, cultures.
2) Create machines/engines that are more efficient that reduce the (input) energy needed to increase (relative) energy output (moving towards a Carnot engine). These machines/engines include various forms of robotics, nano-machines, better carburetors, etc.
3) The advancement of Zero-point and Fusion types of energy devices (Carnot Engines that do not exist publically).
4) The movement of humans off world.

There is more but it gets deeper into economic philosophy, political philosophy and policy. Perhaps I will venture there as time goes by.

Post: #45

Along with energy as part of thread 1, on occasion, I will expand to discuss critical resources. One of the principal resources that will influence conflict and war in the 21st and 22nd centuries will be water, particularly fresh water. As a lead in, when you study the water supply of the Middle East, you can see what country has been focusing on water conservation for almost two decades as well as the development of desalinization plants. The issue becomes one of agriculture and the irrigation of crops. Examine water levels for the Sea of Galilee for the past three decades. In Syria, both Damascus and Homs have water in relative abundance.

Post: #46

Most are not aware of the German long game. Turning to trade now and for the next two to three generations is part of a pause before another major re-arming (which is a process). Germany has been a country since 1871 (at the Hall of Mirrors in the Palace of Versailles no less) where Wilhelm I was proclaimed Emperor (William the II was Emperor during the great build-up of Germany in the early part of the 20th century). It was unified (known as the German Unification) under the Otto Von Bismarck (and his industrial backers) and the Junkers (prominent land owning aristocrats and land owners). The same elements exist now in terms of the industrialists and the political factions. When they decide to work together, your eyebrow should lift up and attention given.

The German Re-unification of 1990 between the DDR (East German) and FRG (West German) was also part of the long game where Germany would rise again as an economic, and I posit, eventual military regional world power. Firstly under the auspices of the United States and indirectly NATO and eventually being free of this obligation in the later part of the 21st century.

It is important to study Germany before 1871 from the 15th to the 19th century when it was Prussia and ruled firstly by the House of Hollenhozern (from as early as the 11th century) and secondly by the House of Hapsburg. This was the power that was overthrown in 1918 with the German Revolution and Germany moved from imperialist rule to a republic. Without going into details now, I will posit that this was a socialist revolution (like in Russia where the House of Romanov (from the 17th century) was overthrown) that was fronted out of England (Saxon House of Wettin, Ernestine branch, known as Saxe-Coburg Gotha which then transformed to House of Windsor in 1917 due to anti-German sentiment. As yet another footnote, the House of Wettin castle was built in the 10th century by the Sorbs which was/is a slavic tribe); but there was a failure to hand over power to the soviet (meaning ruled by councils) councils as they were under the Bolsheviks.

Before the House of Hollenhozern, and overlapping with it for almost two centuries, was the Holy Roman Empire. The term was not coined until the 13th century, but dates back to the first part of the 9th century (for most historians) when the Pope (Leo III) crowned Charlemange (Charles I), a Frankish king (disappearing as a title in the 13th century). The Franks were military dukes (dux goes back to the Roman time as a general who led two or more legions and often referred to a Governor) and reguli (petty kings). It was here that the idea of Western Europe was revived after a three century hiatus and a more modern notion of Empire was reborn after the collapse of the Roman Empire. The Pope was well aware that the notion of Emperor was one where supreme powers were held and that were inherited by the old Emperors of Rome. The office of Emperor was elected, not in the modern sense, but rather by the German Prince Electors (a type of electoral college that was transformed in the middle of the 14th century to include 3 archbishops and 4 secular princes), selecting one of their peers and then being crowned by the Pope.

The last crowned Emperor was in the 16th century with the Austrian House of Hapsburg taking the most pivotal role (has it had been playing for almost a century). In the middle of the 18th century the House of Hapsburg was melded with the House of Lorraine (French). The last Holy Roman Emperor was Francis II (the last of the four Emperors from the Hapsburg-Lorraine lineage who became Emperor of Austria), dissolved the (Holy Roman) Empire (being pressed by Napoleon, Russia, and several German princes) while Prussia, under Wilhelm III, increased its sphere of influence.

Before the Holy Roman Empire, the Roman power structure in Europe was in decline for three centuries and the Germanic tribal influence re-asserted itself as it had before the dominance of the Roman Empire.

From simple geography, the Germans, Prussians, Holy Roman Empire, and German Tribes have been surrounded by other factions for century upon century.

---------

Currently Germany has less than one tenth of one percent of the world´s population, but accounts for almost 10% of the GDP. If you choose to examine the Prussian system of education (tied to the militarists), you will find a system that was studied externally by most of the major industrial powers (to include Japan and the U.S.) since 1850. These powers replicated many of the features and many of these these notions are the basis for the modern industrial indoctrination that is being currently transformed.

Migration is currently being used as a weapon (generally, but in Germany specifically) to weaken the more homogenous population that is able to develop economic power and transform that power into political influence in order to change the current landscape. The tribal warfare of the 8th century A.D. is being played out once again to be used for yet other geo-political gains by various greymen who represent other less obvious agendas. Since the establishment of nation-states in Europe, France, under the Valois-Bourbon royal line, dedicated its foreign policy to the weakening of the Habsburg (Austrian and Spanish royal families) lineage and the continued disunity of the Germanic provinces.

Recall in a previous thread where it was mentioned to watch the relationships between the Bundesbank- Deutsche Bank- Central Banks. I will expand from simply Deutsche Bank (which is critical) to include German banks in general when it comes to common policies. A current example is the Bavarian Banking Association who has recently recommended that its member banks start stockpiling physical cash. This will cause the European Central Bank (ECB) to either issue more cash notes or impose capital controls. Mario Drahgi spoke a few weeks ago about decreasing and/or banning the circulation of Euro 500 notes (a type of capital control).

Post: #47

Quick question - is Zerohedge at all worth reading?

I like reading the blog, it's pretty good, but it seems like they've accurately predicted a couple hundred of the last 2 recessions. Practically everything is economically apocalyptic on there.

Post: #48

I think that there are a number of good articles in general, but do not depend on any one source. Since I just came back to the electronic world a few months ago after a long hiatus, I am not sure of the best ones. A few posts back I commented on a Zero-Hedge article that was posted on the Russian Syrian conflict thread. I disagreed with the conclusions, but the article made some good points and was worth the read. To answer your question directly, I would say that from what I have seen, they provide valuable information and it is worth a look. However, even with my posts, I encourage everyone to critically think for themselves. Books were my favorite sources (especially old manuscripts), and with books I recommend that you understand the authors´ background as it influences what is written.

Yes, there is a lot of negativity (look at the percentage of the planet right now (by country or another metric if you prefer) that is actually fighting), but the key is how we handle the negativity (it is similar with how we interact with woman). I will make comments like: ¨you do not need to touch the darkness to understand the darkness,¨ as they apply on many different levels. We are each hardened in the forge, but as we are hammered we do not want to break into pieces.

My main goals here are fivefold: 1) To let some of this stuff out of my head and spool my brain up again; 2) To assist others in seeing a bigger picture; 3) To fill in some of the big picture gaps with non-traditional (mainstream thinking); 4) To encourage critical thinking; 5) To expand my mind.

As an example, from the last post, perhaps some would be encouraged to look at what was happening in Orient and particularly China in the 16th century with the transition of the Ming Dynasty in the 17th century. The Ming dynasty came after the Mongol led Yuan dynasty. Examine what happened with the Mongols (13th and 14th century) as they raged across central Asia, across Eastern Europe and down into Venice. Look at how trade and commerce were influenced (the Silk Road and the continental trade system that evolved). The Mongol´s left a strong tradition of laws and punishments as they related to trade and commerce. There was actually a gigantic maritime trade system as the first emperor of the Ming dynasty had one of the largest (if not the largest) naval dockyards in the world (14th century), that allowed them to build a massive fleet of large ocean going junks in the 14th and 15th centuries.

With the increase in trade, cultures mixed, and technologies were transferred. I am sure that some have heard of gunpowder; it changed warfare. When cultures mix over long periods, study how it affects war and/or peace. When European silver (and gold) moved to the east, there were some effects. Perhaps there were a few pissed off European aristocrats and royals because of the many changes or the fact that they had been warred upon. Relate these things to what was happening in Europe in the 16th and 17 centuries, then the opium wars of the 19th century and perhaps today (Chinese developing islands or building a blue water navy, etc., etc.). I use these as examples to help you think more geo-politically.

Post: #49

In 2015 a new supreme council for (Saudi) Aramco was created that is above Aramco’s board of directors. Prince Mohammad bin Salman (al Saud) is chairman of Council of Economic and Development Affairs, which overshadows the Aramco Chief Executive who heads Aramco’s board of directors. The Prince is the deputy crown prince of Saudi Arabia, second deputy prime minister and the youngest minister of defense in the world. He is also the chief of the House of Saud royal court, and has been set up as the power behind the power.

Earlier in the year Saudi Arabia mentioned that it was thinking about listing the shares of Saudi Aramco on the market. This state owned company is often considered to be the most valuable in the world being worth between 2 - 10 trillion dollars while producing 10 million barrels of oil and condensates per day and having reserves of 261 billion barrels, 294 trillion (standard) cubic feet of natural gas as well as extensive world-wide refining assets. It is also one of the world´s lowest cost oil producers.

However, Saudi Arabia reveals no information on revenues and offers only limited information on its hydrocarbon reserves. At the same time Saudi Arabia is planning for domestic economic changes include gradually eliminating subsidies on electricity, water and housing; seeking private-sector provision in health care and education; introducing a 5% value-added tax on non-essential goods; and studying the complete or partial privatization of over two dozen agencies, including the national airline and telecom firms.

Historically the House of Saud has survived by making three compacts: 1) with the Wahhabis to strengthen their standing in the Islamic world as the custodians of the holy places of Mecca and Medina; 2) with the population of Saudi Arabia by providing generosity in exchange for compliance to the monarchy; 3) with the United States to defend Saudi Arabia in exchange for stability in oil markets. All three have been called into question today with Iran making its initial move toward recreation of the Persian Empire; the Saudi population´s declining support of the monarchy as well as declining of oil revenues and a 15% budget deficit; and the U.S. detaching or as I have stated before the Saudi´s detaching from the U.S. and moving toward the Eurasian Trade Zone and China in particular.

As defense minister, Prince Mohammad bin Salman led the assault in Yemen and the build-up in Syria; he is pushing for the economic changes previously mentioned; he is meeting more often with Russian and Chinese officials than U.S. and western officials.

Under the Prince´s transformation 2020 plan he is developing alternatives (solar) to oil, cutting the public payroll, and implementing numerous social and economic reforms.

Why would Saudi Arabia do this and what are some of the geo-political implications; in the public eye and behind the scenes?

The Prince knows that the House of Saud is in a fight for its existence and he is choosing a more radical path and trying to modernize(?) the country. He was not trained in the west, although many of his ministers have been trained there. I suggest that this IPO is an idea shared with the prince from the Chinese and it has Russian support. An IPO may help secure the Saudi monarchy from the western retaliation for turning to the Eurasian Trade Zone as well as cashing in on their prime assets while they are still highly valued. Selling shares in Saudi Aramco could thus be intended to cash in before a de-carbonization of the economy starts to gain credibility. It would also fit with a larger trend that has started to transform the oil industry for the first time in half a century toward de-nationalization.

The next issue becomes the possibility of economic warfare with this new publically traded company being attacked. Could the market absorb this or would it undermine the financial system? I propose that Saudi Arabia will only make 5-10% of the company public and perhaps more over time when it is to their political advantage. If the Saudi´s cut production they will say it is under the auspices of increasing shareholder value, not that there production is declining due to geology. This will also provide for a gargantuan capital infusion into the kingdom (and House of Saud) which in the long run will be cheaper than going to the bond market. The Saudi government need not have a full disclosure of their reserves similar to various Chinese corporations in the U.S. and the U.S. will have a vested interest in maintaining a stable and secure Saudi Arabia via the House of Saud as many major western investors will have Saudi Aramco stock in their portfolios and they will exert pressure on the various western governments to continue supporting their investments tied to Saudi Aramco which is tied to Saudi Arabia which is tied to the House of Saud.

Russia and China will move forward with a new Asian-Gulf oil cartel and OPEC will fade away or become less influential.

Post: #50

War is a way of teaching geography.