(01-18-2016 10:22 PM)Sonsowey Wrote: I would recommend anyone interested in dipping their toes into ancient history read this very quick document, The Fate of Empires and the Search for Survival
http://people.uncw.edu/kozloffm/glubb.pdf
It outlines how similar the rises and falls of many great civilizations have been. How many civilizations have a period of a great outburst from obscurity, a period of great military victories while seemingly outmatched, a period of great inventiveness and vitality, and then a period of consolidation, growing wealth, increased intellectualism and focus on material well-being. Then, collapse.
It is relevant to us today, and relevant to those reading about the ancient past as well.
Should take about 30-60 minutes to read.
That was OK, but falls victim to a whole lot of fallacious reasoning and ambiguity. The author seems to use
civilization,
empire, and
nation interchangeably and while the concepts certainly overlap, they are not the same thing. This is indicative of a lack of rigor which shows up frequently throughout.
For example, the list of civilizations is far more arbitrary than it needs to be. While the begin and end dates aren't always clear and consistent, what you CAN do is pick some reasonable standard, explain it, and then make a reasonable attempt to apply it consistently. In this case it's important, because such a definitely would probably not have resulted in the same 200ish year length for all of them. The mongols, for example, though mentioned in the paper, are conveniently left out of the "list of empires," which is important because it would obviously contradict the assertion that empires always seem to last 200-300 years.
And about Rome:
Quote:The division of Rome into two periods
may be thought unwarranted. The first, or
republican, period dates from the time when
Rome became the mistress of Italy, and ends
with the accession of Augustus. The imperial
period extends from the accession of
Augustus to the death of Marcus Aurelius. It
is true that the empire survived nominally
for more than a century after this date, but it
did so in constant confusion, rebellions, civil
wars and barbarian invasions.
Then later in the paper:
Quote:This empire broke in half, the western half
being overrun by northern barbarians, the
eastern half forming the East Roman or
Byzantine Empire.
OK, except that the Eastern Roman Empire was just completely left off that list. No formal definition was given to determine whether this particular analysis should or should not include Byzantium as either a valid extension of the original Roman Empire or as a separate empire in its own right. So it's just left off the list altogether?
That said, whether you want to count the Roman Republic and Empire separately or not, the transition between the two is one of the more fascinating and certainly most famous geopolitical events in western history. The era was shaped equally by the change in the balance of power in the Mediterranean, as well as by the force of the personalities involved. As Rome emerged as the unquestioned, dominant power in the region, the Republic gave way to Empire, driven by figures you've all heard of like Julius Caesar, Crassius, Pompey the Great, Octavian (Caesar Agustus), Mark Antony, and Cleopatra.
Quote:Immense changes in the technology of
transport or in methods of warfare do not
seem to affect the life-expectation of an
empire.
This is likely again affected by selection bias. That is: the list does not include civilizations that did not make the list because they were prematurely wiped out by changes in technology or superior innovations in warfare.