Post: #1

I saw the Big Short last night and really enjoyed it. I thought it was very cool how they used cut scenes to explain the housing market crash in layman's terms.

I think most of us on RVF can agree that a social bubble is going burst within our country during the next year or two. Just like Michael Burry in the Big Short, we KNOW shit is going to go down - there is simply no quick and easy fix for the insanely unstable conditions created by political correctness. It's going get ugly.

What types of securities could you long/short to bet against some of these things?

-Higher Education
-Gay/Female equality/superiority
-White people getting blamed for everything
-The value of "Likes" and internet fame to the average joe/jane
-Young women holding out on starting a family to pursue status and money
-Technology (in terms of making people really, really fucking stupid and dependent on google)
-Valuing cushy office/marketing jobs over skilled, blue collared workers

Post: #2

Higer education is not going down. In fact, I would argue that if you could hypothetically buy higher education stocks, they would go up.

Why? Simple.

Higer education is still in high demand globally. US universities are still looked at as the golden ticket. While you do not, or even some Americans do not, the fact is the world very much does. Moreover, many US universities are pivoting strongly out to Asia-Pacific to recruit students. Importantly, these students are full paying customers. No scholarships, no financial aid, no in-state tuition packages. There are millions of families lining up to send their first child away to the US for university and will pay any price to do it.

A compelling idea that I have not quite figured out how to leverage is the fact that you will see the world's largest transfer of wealth out of newly minted economies such as China and Vietnam, among other countries, into the West.

Post: #3

Simply put, this is a bad idea. Your post shows that you don't have any experience with financial markets. Sooner or later, you'll get creamed.

Post: #4

Excellent movie, I generally don't like modern films, but this one was compelling from start to finish. I kind of get what you are saying in regards to seeing what others are either too stupid or don't care enough to see, and as of joining this community, I do see many issue that others do not.

I disagree with the education quip, MaleDefined. I have seen many people disregard it as total and utter bullshit to the extent that they are going out of their way to not attend. People are starting to see the trap, and there is no real incentive to go unless you are going to become a doctor, lawyer, engineer, or professional slave. If you want to be your own man and start your own ship, skip the retarded institution all together. I wasted 4 years of my life that I will never get back, and these people are realizing that as soon as they get out of school that the jobs require more schooling, more experience, or simply, don't exist anymore.

However, I would leverage myself as the best man I can be, because there has literally never been an easier time for high quality men; You can build harems that were previously only available to Kings, you can start businesses that are capable of growing into empires, you can go anywhere and do anything. I would "short" the government in much of what is going on with regards to social programs and regulations. Seek ways in which you can go around them and build business that they cannot stop. Be so influential that there is no way to stop you. Today, that is possible. You live in the best time to be a man, and I'd go "long" on the fact that if you don't let others sway you, you can live whatever life you imagine.

Post: #5

(12-30-2015 03:21 PM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  I disagree with the education quip, MaleDefined. I have seen many people disregard it as total and utter bullshit to the extent that they are going out of their way to not attend. People are starting to see the trap, and there is no real incentive to go unless you are going to become a doctor, lawyer, engineer, or professional slave. If you want to be your own man and start your own ship, skip the retarded institution all together. I wasted 4 years of my life that I will never get back, and these people are realizing that as soon as they get out of school that the jobs require more schooling, more experience, or simply, don't exist anymore.

This is not a quip. Yes, it's easy for us to sit back and examine choice anecdotes as justification to not attend university, however that was not my point if you look at my argument. My argument is, is that there are probably more people than ever who have the resources and desire to attend university. The US is still viewed as the preeminent place to study and obtain a university education - a goal, perhaps the singular goal of the middle and upper class world wide. It's not whether you agree or disagree, or think your university degree was bullshit or not.

Post: #6

The best thing about US universities is that as we see more and more false rape accusations on college campuses here in the US, foreigners and even Americans will want to send their kids overseas to more "patriarchal" colleges (ie: China). For instance, I would never send my sons to US or European colleges because these are feminized environments. They will go to Chinese colleges and they will learn Mandarin while in elementary and junior high.

I expect more and more parents (who have sons, of course) to follow suit. If I'm right in my theory, I also know that women follow men (not vice versa), meaning these patriarchal colleges will be making a lot of money in the long run.

I expect SJW insanity to not only continue, but to strengthen over the next decade. Many of you are completely forgetting that we've raised a generation of worthless pussies in the US. Peak SJW is not here.

Post: #7

(12-30-2015 12:52 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  Simply put, this is a bad idea. Your post shows that you don't have any experience with financial markets. Sooner or later, you'll get creamed.

No, I don't have any experience in financial markets, nor did I claim to. I'm not in the market at all right now, I was just curious as to how one would do this. Thanks for being helpful.

Post: #8

I read the book a while ago. As I recall, the saying that almost came true for the main characters was, "the markets will be dumb longer than you can stay solvent (by holding short positions)." Might be true in OP's case.

Also curious if those expecting a collapse hold any short positions. Money where your mouth is? Or is the market rigged (which it could be)?

Post: #9

You'd be better of shorting the markets when there is an obvious decline worth participating in. IE a Lehmen moment.

You'll get burned shorting the market in the long run. This isn't a smart idea.

Post: #10

(12-30-2015 03:30 PM)MaleDefined Wrote:  

(12-30-2015 03:21 PM)TheFinalEpic Wrote:  I disagree with the education quip, MaleDefined. I have seen many people disregard it as total and utter bullshit to the extent that they are going out of their way to not attend. People are starting to see the trap, and there is no real incentive to go unless you are going to become a doctor, lawyer, engineer, or professional slave. If you want to be your own man and start your own ship, skip the retarded institution all together. I wasted 4 years of my life that I will never get back, and these people are realizing that as soon as they get out of school that the jobs require more schooling, more experience, or simply, don't exist anymore.

This is not a quip. Yes, it's easy for us to sit back and examine choice anecdotes as justification to not attend university, however that was not my point if you look at my argument. My argument is, is that there are probably more people than ever who have the resources and desire to attend university. The US is still viewed as the preeminent place to study and obtain a university education - a goal, perhaps the singular goal of the middle and upper class world wide. It's not whether you agree or disagree, or think your university degree was bullshit or not.

MD you make great points, but take take a look at University of Phoenix's stock performance this year. One caveat to your point worth noting is that online education is going through a blood bath and may not survive as an industry. While I agree more people than ever have access to education, I think traditional government funded colleges and universities will see the largest benefit to this, further expanding the welfare state with Pell grants.

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/apol/intera...ttype=line

Post: #11

I sometimes short Nigeria and South Africa. They tend to be overvalued compared to peer emerging markets, and I often wonder if this is due to affirmative action (we have to have an Africa allocation to not appear racist, someone surely thinks). Nigeria is about to devalue their currency, which will hammer the country ETF.

Post: #12

(12-30-2015 05:37 PM)SunW Wrote:  The best thing about US universities is that as we see more and more false rape accusations on college campuses here in the US, foreigners and even Americans will want to send their kids overseas to more "patriarchal" colleges (ie: China). For instance, I would never send my sons to US or European colleges because these are feminized environments. They will go to Chinese colleges and they will learn Mandarin while in elementary and junior high.

I expect more and more parents (who have sons, of course) to follow suit. If I'm right in my theory, I also know that women follow men (not vice versa), meaning these patriarchal colleges will be making a lot of money in the long run.

I expect SJW insanity to not only continue, but to strengthen over the next decade. Many of you are completely forgetting that we've raised a generation of worthless pussies in the US. Peak SJW is not here.

What's your estimate on Peak SJW?

Are you of the mind that the reset only comes really when a big enough [economic] calamity happens thus setting off chain reactions of having a real, organized country with traditional values? Basically, the question is, what does it take to finally make people say, "Fuck it, I can't risk this environment anymore"

... when does secession or civil war become a real option?

Post: #13

What securities would I bet against?

Twitter. Yelp. TripAdvisor.

Anything reliant on a pack of condescending San Francisco liberals to "police" the narrative of their sacred product- conveniently commercialized, but built on the backs of innocent altruistic users. Venture capital, hopes, and dreams only last so long before the silicon bucket shop gets rattled to pieces.

I can't wait.

Post: #14

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B013CATZIC

Excellent book on this subject, specific to Hubspot but with general insight into all these SJW run vaporware "tech" companies.

Post: #15

You put forth an interesting topic for discussion.

SJWs are irrational. Markets can be irrational in their own way. I remember the first internet bubble, and knowing nothing about investing, I thought the whole thing was vaporware, even though that word hadn't been invented yet, and I couldn't understand how these companies, many of whom didn't even offer a service, or couldn't make money with the services they offered, could be worth so much.

As time went on, I started to think, well, they are the experts, not me, maybe they know something I don't. Then the whole thing popped.

I think it would be tough to time this. Look at all the SJW media outlets that started to tank recently. Without inside knowledge of their finances, who could have known when it would happen and how it would happen? Salon, Buzzfeed, the Gawker empire. If you had asked me personally when they started, I would have said there wouldn't be a market for it. How can you make money off a class of people who want everything free off the internet? They have lasted a pretty long time.

How would you time it?

Post: #16

Quote:How would you time it?

Bingo. Timing is to shorts as location is to real estate. If you're right on overvaluation and wrong on timing, you're wrong. Not partially wrong, 100% wrong. I learned this the hard way.

Post: #17

You can't as much

Here's why: most "SJW" causes aren't based in markets, they're the result of financial investments by either the federal government or private expenses by wealthy individuals (aka Soros). There isn't any mechanism by which a retail investor can short the associated financial products, and few by which institutional investors are capable of doing so.

However, one thing I would say is a potentially profitable strategy is shorting those SJW infested media and tech companies which are publicly traded. Some aren't going anywhere, but others are highly polished turds still swirling around the bowl. You would have made a killing shorting Twitter when it first became apparent that they'd gone full SJW early last year.

Post: #18

(12-30-2015 09:59 AM)Eddie Winslow Wrote:  Just like Michael Burry in the Big Short, we KNOW shit is going to go down - there is simply no quick and easy fix for the insanely unstable conditions created by political correctness. It's going get ugly.

What types of securities could you long/short to bet against some of these things?

The only thing you can watch to sell a stock is when a company is reaching the point SJW convergence. At this point a company is committed to pursue social justice at the expensive of delivering its service or product. Fine example is Mozilla, the moment the broad try get Brendan Eich. That would have been good time to sell a stock and watch the devaluation done by the idiots there. Check the leadership of a company for know SJWs in leadership roles. The first sign of full blow social justice, sell the stock as fast as you can. Good starting point is vox day list of sjws.

Post: #19

You can short this bitch. SHE

Post: #20

Facebook will be one of the greatest shorts in the history of the US market, but probably not yet. The leftist seeds of its decline are firmly planted though.

Post: #21

   

(12-30-2015 10:46 AM)MaleDefined Wrote:  Higer education is not going down. In fact, I would argue that if you could hypothetically buy higher education stocks, they would go up.

Why? Simple.

Higer education is still in high demand globally. US universities are still looked at as the golden ticket. While you do not, or even some Americans do not, the fact is the world very much does. Moreover, many US universities are pivoting strongly out to Asia-Pacific to recruit students. Importantly, these students are full paying customers. No scholarships, no financial aid, no in-state tuition packages. There are millions of families lining up to send their first child away to the US for university and will pay any price to do it.

A compelling idea that I have not quite figured out how to leverage is the fact that you will see the world's largest transfer of wealth out of newly minted economies such as China and Vietnam, among other countries, into the West.

Well you clearly dont trade, yet give advice on something you know nothing about.

This chart goes back 30 years but Sallie Mae has been around a long time. This security is exactly how you would play the higher education bubble.

Post: #22

@Thersites: Just noting Mozilla isn't publicly traded.

@Onto: Wow now I've seen it all. Interesting to note though, that fund's holdings seems to be primarily diversified large caps. I would expect a lot more social tech names in there(YELP, FB, TWTR, etc).

@the biggest cheetah: As opposed to Fannie and Freddie? Lehman? Bear Stearns? Kodak? Any stock can go down, everyone knows that.

@BIGINJAPAN: I know you know your shit, but I'm not getting your point with the chart. Is Sallie supposed to go up, down, sideways, backwards, in circles? What's your thesis?

Post: #23

(04-21-2016 02:21 AM)jj90 Wrote:  @Thersites: Just noting Mozilla isn't publicly traded.

@Onto: Wow now I've seen it all. Interesting to note though, that fund's holdings seems to be primarily diversified large caps. I would expect a lot more social tech names in there(YELP, FB, TWTR, etc).

@the biggest cheetah: As opposed to Fannie and Freddie? Lehman? Bear Stearns? Kodak? Any stock can go down, everyone knows that.

@BIGINJAPAN: I know you know your shit, but I'm not getting your point with the chart. Is Sallie supposed to go up, down, sideways, backwards, in circles? What's your thesis?

I know, it's unbelievable. That ETF is supposed to be comprised of companies that have a certain percentage of women in senior roles. Not sure why FB isn't on there since they have two on their board. I was half-joking about shorting it, but it's pretty sad to see that kind of branding of an instrument.

Post: #24

What does that chart have to do with anything I said?

And I know nothing about 'trading'. Nor do I pretend I ever want to.

Post: #25

(04-21-2016 11:14 AM)MaleDefined Wrote:  What does that chart have to do with anything I said?

And I know nothing about 'trading'. Nor do I pretend I ever want to.

You dont know what Sallie Mae is?

it is a quasi private firm that issues loans to students and usually requires co-signors such as parents. They also do other money management services for students.

It is exactly how you short the higher education bubble