Post: #1051

I think a lot of people are reading too much into this.

Putin's goal was to stabilize the Syrian regime, head off the potential for its collapse, and place it in an advantageous position for peace talks. This goal has been more or less accomplished. My guess is that if the peace talks collapse, then Putin will send them back in.

Post: #1052

The Russian intervention has achieved its objectives:

*ISIS has been damaged significantly.
*Assad is still in power.
*Obama has been outed to the world as the Islamic terrorist loving pussy that he really is.

Post: #1053

Some armchair generalling about to happen. And, yes, I know this is very simplistic. If this was in the realm of possibilities, this is how I'd supply Assad for cheap offensive attack forces for the current situation to route terrorists.

Buy:
200 Russian surplus BM-21 Grads x $1 million each = $200 million

150 Russian surplus T-72 tanks x $1 million each = $150 million

4,000 Toyota Hilux/Tacomas x $20,000 each (direct from manufacturer) = $80 million

Build 4,000 replicas of the Chenowth Advanced Light Strike Vehicles x $10,000 each if built in-house and without profits = $40 million

Buy 4,000 Zero FX electric motorbikes x $8,000 each = $32 million

Add the Russian Kord .50 caliber machine gun and the Russian AGS-30 grenade launcher to the 4,000 Tacomas and 4,000 Chenowth dune buggies... about $15,000 extra per vehicle... $120 million more. So the Tacomas become "technicals/battlewagons"... same with the dune buggies which would have the equivalent firepower as Navy Seals in their dune buggies.

More Tos-1's would be nice, too, but those cost too much so we'll leave them out. Some Kornet anti-tank/armor missiles would be nice too, but we'll leave those out. Can buy sheets of AK-47 bullet resistant glass to protect the grille/engine and windshield of technicals and dune buggies from China/Alibaba for about $150 per sheet. Clamp those on.

So for around $620 million (not counting ammunition), could be more, could be less, depending on how much Russia/Iran subsidizes arming Assad, Syria would have a highly mobile combined offensive infantry and artillery force.

Divide the equipment up into 20 "Tiger Forces" offensive attack groups. This would be overwhelming firepower against terrorists who have little armor and pretty much rely on technicals, RPG's, mortars, and AK-47's.

10 Grads, 7 tanks, 200 technicals, 200 dune buggies, 200 electric motorbikes in each of 20 group... less than 2,000 guys per group. The Grads pound an area and then the tanks/technicals/dune buggies follow up by pounding it with tank shells, heavy machine guns, and grenades. Overrun the area and wash/rinse/repeat. This doesn't even account for Russian/Syrian planes or helicopters bombing the hell out of areas.

In the mountains and deserts the dune buggies and motorbikes (just dudes with AK-47's with a grenade launcher attachment) would work great. Use them as swarms to protect and hold the desert border areas with Jordan and Iraq (pro-US groups are infiltrating through the Jordanian border taking areas from Islamic State).

That's my redneck, cheap, ground fighting force solution for the Syrian Army to dominate and route the terrorists... especially if Russia is indeed taking most of its air/firepower home.

Because of Israel, Russia probably wouldn't supply that amount of Grads or T-72's to Syria. (And the T-72's are just a cheap take-what-you-can-get tank that is inferior to the more expensive T-90's).

Here's a map of divided Syria (not sure how Putin deems this as getting the job done). http://syria.liveuamap.com

Note also, why couldn't Putin say something like "After the Syrians capture Palmyra and Deir ez Zuir from Islamic State, Russia will start pulling its forces out." Instead he essentially said Russia is pulling out tomorrow. That's bogus. He could've baited the west by saying ok, we'll be going soon but first Syria needs to capture just a little bit more from Islamic State. String the west along more but give them a light at the end of the tunnel so they don't escalate since they want Russia out of Syria.

Post: #1054

Here's what I think:

Post: #1055

Now Hezbollah withdrawing from Syria. Interesting strategy and timing by both Russia and Hezbollah. No way they're abandoning Assad so people like me who think they should pour it on and finish the job will just have to trust Putin, the greatest politician of our era, and bite our tongues and see how this plays out.

Post: #1056

"Deputy Defense Minister Nikolai Pankov said on Tuesday morning that although the Russian air group achieved serious results in Syria, “it is too early to speak of a victory over terrorism … the air force is tasked with continuing attacks against terrorist targets.”

The announcement follows Putin's unexpected announcement on Monday evening that Russia would withdraw the main component of its force deployed in Syria."

Post: #1057

On a strategic level it means that the Syrian Army is in a significantly stronger position. The probability that the Syrian Army and a relatively smaller Russian support can, at a minimum extend and delay the rebuilding of the opposition, if not defeat them within a medium timeframe is high. It is in the Russian best interest, long term, to de-escalate in Syria. They will play the long game with the Chinese economically to shift the balance from the west. If they get into a more protracted ground offensive, it will strengthen the U.S. military-industrial complex and artificially support the dollar short term. The decrease in Syrian exchanges will most likely mean reduced (non-proxy) Saudi forces that can be focused internally or at the southern border. Russia can use this via Chinese influence as they attempt to decrease Shia-Sunni conflict and promote trade in general and the movement toward a Russian-Gulf Oil Cartel.

The greater wild card is Turkey, but with Russia pulling back Turkey will have a more difficult publicity issue on the world stage as they push the Kurds. Stability (to include developing an international identity for the Kurds) is the center of gravity for the Russian long game. They will gain a marginal victory in the second half of the 21st century if they can do this as well as increase economic ties between Eurasian countries, and develop a new energy cartel using something other than U.S. dollars as payment. This will lead to more trade in other international goods in something other than U.S. dollars.

Post: #1058

(03-15-2016 03:52 PM)NASA Test Pilot Wrote:  On a strategic level it means that the Syrian Army is in a significantly stronger position. The probability that the Syrian Army and a relatively smaller Russian support can, at a minimum extend and delay the rebuilding of the opposition, if not defeat them within a medium timeframe is high. It is in the Russian best interest, long term, to de-escalate in Syria. They will play the long game with the Chinese economically to shift the balance from the west. If they get into a more protracted ground offensive, it will strengthen the U.S. military-industrial complex and artificially support the dollar short term. The decrease in Syrian exchanges will most likely mean reduced (non-proxy) Saudi forces that can be focused internally or at the southern border. Russia can use this via Chinese influence as they attempt to decrease Shia-Sunni conflict and promote trade in general and the movement toward a Russian-Gulf Oil Cartel.

The greater wild card is Turkey, but with Russia pulling back Turkey will have a more difficult publicity issue on the world stage as they push the Kurds. Stability (to include developing an international identity for the Kurds) is the center of gravity for the Russian long game. They will gain a marginal victory in the second half of the 21st century if they can do this as well as increase economic ties between Eurasian countries, and develop a new energy cartel using something other than U.S. dollars as payment. This will lead to more trade in other international goods in something other than U.S. dollars.

I much prefer your shorter posts to the long-winded full-of-unnecessary-explainations posts. Brevity is king on an active forum, and if people have questions let them ask. It is much easier for users to read a conversation style format rather than long-form essay on a forum and keeps readers engaged.

Post: #1059

(03-17-2016 11:10 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(03-15-2016 03:52 PM)NASA Test Pilot Wrote:  On a strategic level it means that the Syrian Army is in a significantly stronger position. The probability that the Syrian Army and a relatively smaller Russian support can, at a minimum extend and delay the rebuilding of the opposition, if not defeat them within a medium timeframe is high. It is in the Russian best interest, long term, to de-escalate in Syria. They will play the long game with the Chinese economically to shift the balance from the west. If they get into a more protracted ground offensive, it will strengthen the U.S. military-industrial complex and artificially support the dollar short term. The decrease in Syrian exchanges will most likely mean reduced (non-proxy) Saudi forces that can be focused internally or at the southern border. Russia can use this via Chinese influence as they attempt to decrease Shia-Sunni conflict and promote trade in general and the movement toward a Russian-Gulf Oil Cartel.

The greater wild card is Turkey, but with Russia pulling back Turkey will have a more difficult publicity issue on the world stage as they push the Kurds. Stability (to include developing an international identity for the Kurds) is the center of gravity for the Russian long game. They will gain a marginal victory in the second half of the 21st century if they can do this as well as increase economic ties between Eurasian countries, and develop a new energy cartel using something other than U.S. dollars as payment. This will lead to more trade in other international goods in something other than U.S. dollars.

I much prefer your shorter posts to the long-winded full-of-unnecessary-explainations posts. Brevity is king on an active forum, and if people have questions let them ask. It is much easier for users to read a conversation style format rather than long-form essay on a forum and keeps readers engaged.

NTP's posts are long and full of explanations because the ideas he's trying to convey are just that: long and complex. Those otherwise unnecessary stories may be necessary to someone who doesn't have the mental depth yet to grasp such concepts.

Sometimes essays are warranted and the forum is smart enough to extend our otherwise short attention spans to accommodate.

If NTP needs an essay to help convey an idea go for it. The forum is better off for it.

Post: #1060

Samseau and Beast1, I take what you both say to heart and I will keep your words in mind as you are both respected Forum Members and are trying to assist me and the Forum.

Post: #1061

(03-17-2016 11:28 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

(03-17-2016 11:10 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(03-15-2016 03:52 PM)NASA Test Pilot Wrote:  On a strategic level it means that the Syrian Army is in a significantly stronger position. The probability that the Syrian Army and a relatively smaller Russian support can, at a minimum extend and delay the rebuilding of the opposition, if not defeat them within a medium timeframe is high. It is in the Russian best interest, long term, to de-escalate in Syria. They will play the long game with the Chinese economically to shift the balance from the west. If they get into a more protracted ground offensive, it will strengthen the U.S. military-industrial complex and artificially support the dollar short term. The decrease in Syrian exchanges will most likely mean reduced (non-proxy) Saudi forces that can be focused internally or at the southern border. Russia can use this via Chinese influence as they attempt to decrease Shia-Sunni conflict and promote trade in general and the movement toward a Russian-Gulf Oil Cartel.

The greater wild card is Turkey, but with Russia pulling back Turkey will have a more difficult publicity issue on the world stage as they push the Kurds. Stability (to include developing an international identity for the Kurds) is the center of gravity for the Russian long game. They will gain a marginal victory in the second half of the 21st century if they can do this as well as increase economic ties between Eurasian countries, and develop a new energy cartel using something other than U.S. dollars as payment. This will lead to more trade in other international goods in something other than U.S. dollars.

I much prefer your shorter posts to the long-winded full-of-unnecessary-explainations posts. Brevity is king on an active forum, and if people have questions let them ask. It is much easier for users to read a conversation style format rather than long-form essay on a forum and keeps readers engaged.

NTP's posts are long and full of explanations because the ideas he's trying to convey are just that: long and complex. Those otherwise unnecessary stories may be necessary to someone who doesn't have the mental depth yet to grasp such concepts.

If they don't have the "mental depth" then let them ask questions. Most of us just scroll right past because it's redundant to those who already know. Not to mention, there are probably 50-100 other guys on this forum who could answer for NASA.

Post: #1062

I like the huge essays, but there's too much info for me to retain after one reading. Or it's too complex.

Post: #1063

Big Nilla - RoK's official arms dealer!

Post: #1064

Nothing really new for us here. It just shows some newly released video footage of Syrian soldiers finding weapons, passports, military equipment, medical equipment, and uniforms from Saudi Arabia and Turkey at a captured ISIS camp.

Post: #1065

The Syrian Army with Russian air support is going to retake the ancient city of Palmyra or what's left of it.
Final battle is coming very soon!

Post: #1066

Russia is still doing 25 sorties a day in Syria.... down from their typical 55-60 a day. Since they cutback to just hitting IS and Nusra during the ceasefire, the partial withdrawal is a reflection of not needing the extra planes and PR. I'm not sure if Russia counts helicopters in their sorties, but I'm reading that they're actually increasing the amount of helicopters in Syria. So it appears the focus is mainly on close air support, so the Su-34's and Su-24's aren't needed for what Su-25's and helicopters excel at.

Post: #1067

(03-17-2016 12:17 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(03-17-2016 11:28 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  NTP's posts are long and full of explanations because the ideas he's trying to convey are just that: long and complex. Those otherwise unnecessary stories may be necessary to someone who doesn't have the mental depth yet to grasp such concepts.

If they don't have the "mental depth" then let them ask questions. Most of us just scroll right past because it's redundant to those who already know. Not to mention, there are probably 50-100 other guys on this forum who could answer for NASA.

You say you don't like such paragraph long posts by NTP yet quote the entire conversation that is even longer than the essay-length of his posts that you decry.



G

Post: #1068

(03-18-2016 06:51 PM)Geomann180 Wrote:  

(03-17-2016 12:17 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(03-17-2016 11:28 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  NTP's posts are long and full of explanations because the ideas he's trying to convey are just that: long and complex. Those otherwise unnecessary stories may be necessary to someone who doesn't have the mental depth yet to grasp such concepts.

If they don't have the "mental depth" then let them ask questions. Most of us just scroll right past because it's redundant to those who already know. Not to mention, there are probably 50-100 other guys on this forum who could answer for NASA.

You say you don't like such paragraph long posts by NTP yet quote the entire conversation that is even longer than the essay-length of his posts that you decry.

No they aren't, not even close.

Keep in mind I'm talking about other posts in other threads and not this one, where I stated I enjoyed his post here.

/thread-53234...pid1227815

If you want to start an argument, you should know what you're talking about.

Post: #1069

(03-18-2016 07:09 PM)Samseau Wrote:  No they aren't, not even close.

Keep in mind I'm talking about other posts in other threads and not this one, where I stated I enjoyed his post here.

/thread-53234...pid1227815

If you want to start an argument, you should know what you're talking about.

I looked at the thread you posted as an example.

I stand corrected. My mistake. Rash post on my part.

G

Post: #1070

(03-18-2016 05:42 PM)Big Nilla Wrote:  Russia is still doing 25 sorties a day in Syria.... down from their typical 55-60 a day. Since they cutback to just hitting IS and Nusra during the ceasefire, the partial withdrawal is a reflection of not needing the extra planes and PR. I'm not sure if Russia counts helicopters in their sorties, but I'm reading that they're actually increasing the amount of helicopters in Syria. So it appears the focus is mainly on close air support, so the Su-34's and Su-24's aren't needed for what Su-25's and helicopters excel at.

Russia has either ramped up, or at least maintained, special forces support of the Syrian army on both strategic and tactical levels. I'd imagine that means helicopter support to move forces and supplies, to provide air support, and for behind-enemy-behinds recon, strike correction, and "intelligence gathering".

Post: #1071

The Syrian Army has just captured Palmyra!

http://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/201...myra-city/

Quote:The loss of Palmyra represents one of the biggest setbacks for the ultra-hardline Islamist group since it declared a caliphate in 2014 across large parts of Syria and Iraq.

The army general command said that its forces took over the city with support from Russian and Syrian air strikes, opening up the huge expanse of desert leading east to the Islamic State strongholds of Raqqa and Deir al-Zor.

Palmyra would become “a launchpad to expand military operations” against the group in those two provinces, it said, promising to “tighten the noose on the terrorist group and cut supply routes … ahead of their complete recapture”.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said there were still clashes on the eastern edge of Palmyra on Sunday morning, around the prison and inside the airport, but the bulk of the Islamic State force had withdrawn and retreated east, leaving the city under President Bashar al-Assad’s control.

Post: #1072

I've been following a lot of activity by some of the pro-government Syrian militias. I'm getting the sense that the Syrian Army is going to make an all-out push to attack ISIS strongholds in Raqqa and other cities within the next few months. The peace negotiations represent a limited window of opportunity to create "facts on the ground" and Assad needs to use this chance.

I will be following it with great interest. I hope ISIS gets shown the same amount of mercy and compassion that they showed to the minority sects which they tried to exterminate.

Post: #1073

I know it's a couple days old now, but I found this picture of the Russian soldier who called in an airstrike on himself.

Post: #1074

A colleague of mine recently discovered Suheil Al-Hassan - he's currently the most popular commander in the Syrian Army. The guy is truly a phenomenon, like he sprung out of some John Wayne-esque Hollywood war film: he sports a badass mustache, kicks the shit out of Islamists regularly, and in his spare time he writes poetry and hangs out with his son:

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/col...er-forces/

Quote:Colonel Suheil Al-Hassan of the Syrian Arab Army’s Special Forces Brigade known as the “Tiger Forces” (Qawat Al-Nimr) has become one of the most popular and feared officers in the this conflict, as his victories have birthed new life in an embattled army spread across Syria.

Born in the city of Jableh, Latakia in 1970, Colonel Hussein lives a quiet life, despite his notoriety around the country. He is married and has one son – they are the inspiration for his poetry and desire for victory.

...

As of February 2015, Colonel Hassan has yet to lose a battle during this Syrian conflict – his unit is well-renowned for its success and ferociousness in battle, as they have liberated the Aleppo Central Prison, the town of Morek in northern Hama, and the Al-Sha’ar Gas Fields in Homs.

His unit was largely responsible for the recent liberation of Palmyra from ISIS. He even has a Twitter account, where he gives regular news updates and often trolls Islamists:

https://twitter.com/souria4syrians

Post: #1075

(04-02-2016 04:30 AM)Khan Wrote:  A colleague of mine recently discovered Suheil Al-Hassan - he's currently the most popular commander in the Syrian Army. The guy is truly a phenomenon, like he sprung out of some John Wayne-esque Hollywood war film: he sports a badass mustache, kicks the shit out of Islamists regularly, and in his spare time he writes poetry and hangs out with his son:

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/col...er-forces/

His unit was largely responsible for the recent liberation of Palmyra from ISIS. He even has a Twitter account, where he gives regular news updates and often trolls Islamists:

https://twitter.com/souria4syrians

   



This is some masterful trolling, on par with Donald Trump! What a legend! Followed.