The Beast1 
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RE: The Donald Trump thread
(04-03-2017 08:32 AM)rockoman Wrote: (04-03-2017 12:07 AM)Paracelsus Wrote: (04-02-2017 10:44 PM)Razor Beast Wrote: (04-02-2017 10:11 PM)Deepdiver Wrote: It gets worse...
http://usawatchdog.com/money-riots-comin...-rickards/
Money Riots Coming in Next Financial Collapse-James Rickards
I don't understand why people always cheer for a financial collapse. Most of you will end up dying prematurely if it happens. It will plunge the entire world into chaos and democracy will not be what rises from the ashes. Probably some type of militaristic authoritarian dictator. It is literally the worst case scenario to drain the swamp and achieve our desired outcome. It causes way too much collateral damage and lasting negative effects.
And doesn't matter if you have gold, supplies, clean water, and food if other people find out. Unless you have a network of armed security to protect you in advance, you'll be a dead man.
What the financial collapse in the US will most look like will be Venezuela. We'll get to why in a minute.
Understand first that assholes predicting a financial collapse don't actually want to solve the problem. Many are making money off it, either directly by selling books on the subject or (I suspect) using the Al Gore approach: have shares in "green" companies when you're predicting disaster. For any author who's currently pronouncing financial doom for the US, the first thing you need to look for is whether that person is investing or spruiking gold. Gold will not save your ass in hyperinflation any more than fiat currency will, but you can make other people a lot of money panic buying the yellow metal that drives white men mad.
Understand second that, Zerohedge notwithstanding, the US dollar is not collapsing until one event takes place: the institution of a credible currency alternative to the US dollar that people are willing to trust in sufficient volumes to draw business away from US bonds. Volume matters here: there is more US currency flying around the world than any other currency in existence, and it means in very real terms that world businesses can't operate without it.
In passing, Russia and China are apparently linking arms to come up with a gold-backed currency. Good luck with that. The main reason they're doing that and using gold is because there is no other way they can convince anyone to invest with them: their fiat currencies are bullshit, not backed by believable or real value. You literally cannot trust their governments' promises to repay the money you loan them in the form of bonds, they have to promise you'll get physical gold back in order to entice you there. Even if they did, they don't have sufficient volume of currency to challenge the US dollar. And a gold standard is also no magic cure-all, either: adoption of a gold standard around the world guarantees almost instantaneous deflation and a worldwide depression, because all of that phantom growth and phantom wealth disappears overnight as everything suddenly gets coldly and impersonally valued against an ounce of gold. You can't expand the money supply either without finding more of it, something that's a bit tricky since in all human history there's only been about 180,000 metric tons of it ever mined if I remember right.
Bitcoin and similar also will not solve this problem: I'd have thought the fact the CIA is in everything down to fucking doorbells demonstrates pretty significantly exactly how insecure that "currency" is and why it's never going to be credible as a storer of value unless in a radically different, uncrackable (Hah!) form.
Anyway, as said, when the economic collapse comes, it will basically be Venezuela to a greater or lesser extent. I used to think that conservatism would win out if it happened to be the Left in power at the time of the collapse, kind of a reverse to the 20-year domination of government that happened after the Great Depression and FDR. Now I don't think it will. Too much has been given to people by way of socialism for them to abandon it. Most of the US is utterly dependent on US government handouts to survive, whether directly or indirectly. The network by which socialism is sustained in the US is too massive in scope to change: it ranges from thousands of government regulations to even support in the Republican congress.
It's a parallel to the more direct and horrifying example of Venezuela: there, Maduro controls an unholy trinity of the ports, the food distribution network, and the army. In the US the parallel will not be exact, but given how much of people's lives are wired into the government now, how little they can fend for themselves anymore, and especially given the growing Mexican (socialist-leaning, conformist, government-compliant) population of the US is, I really think that when the shit does finally hit the fan the average American would rather suck the tit of an oppressive government that still feeds them than dare to raise a middle finger and wildcat out to the prairies to look after themselves again.
I evidence that from the fact that as a group, Americans by their actions give more of a shit about health insurance than they do about the government peering into every aspect of their lives. Wikileaks' Vault 7 revelations should have been the impetus for mass fucking rioting, mass exodus from Ogle, Fakebook, and Twatter, and burning down buildings near Langley. Nothing happened. The Right is content to stand guard at Trump's rallies and the Left just wants to cosplay ninjas and complain about microaggressions. The MSM is not pushing Trump to drop the surveillance state, and nobody on the Right seems too keen on holding him to account on the subject. That to me tells me exactly what the average American's priorities are: he won't bite the hand that overwhelmingly feeds him, he is content to live a life of available porn plus government benefit plus social media and believe the government when it says it's here to help you.
Basically, the decades-long battle to grind people into acceptance of socialism has succeeded. As Venezuela is showing us, hyperinflation can be survived by the government that created it, so long as that government is so entrenched into basic necessities that escaping it is essentially impossible. The US has hit that point already. To paraphrase John Reed: fuck Trump's wall, there is a financial, cultural, and social wall going up around the United States already - and you are on the wrong side of it. Even if Trump has the best intentions, he simply cannot fix this, because it requires a basic attitudinal change in the US citizenry. That change is not coming anytime in the next 8 years. I am pretty confirmed in my view that Trump at best holds off the Left's final destruction of the US for 8 more years, and I would heartily suggest you use that less-than-a-decade-and-counting to get your shit in order, gentlemen, because you're going to be living in interesting times.
Hi Paracelsus, I'm one of those assholes predicting financial collapse. Why? Because it's one of the easiest calls to make. Whether we cheer for it or not is irrelevant - it's inevitable. Financial systems age and die just like living organisms do. They accumulate debt like an animal or plant accumulates harmful mutations. Financial collapses have regularly occurred throughout world history.
I agree that the collapse in the US will maybe look something like Venezuela. You point out that the government in Caracas has survived it. To which I would say 'so far'.
You seem to take a dim view of many of those predicting the collapse because they apparently make money off of it by writing books and selling gold etc. Hey dude, that's how capitalism works. People do the work, try to work out what the future's going to be like and produce something while figuring out how to monetize it. These guys are helping individuals to prepare themselves.
You criticize the doomsayers for providing no solutions. Paracelsus, there are no painless solutions to the problem of this huge global debtberg and it's accompanying flotilla of unfunded obligations. Actions have consequences and all debts have to be paid off in some form or other by somebody. The debt/credit system is a mechanism by which we take resources from the future in order to mobilize them in the here and now. If these resources are invested to produce a rate of return greater than the market interest rate, then great. If these resources are consumed or the investment is a failure, then living standards in the future will be lower than would otherwise have been the case. If we look at history, then we see that such debts are never paid off in real terms. The solution is always: war, revolution, hyperinflation, currency reform etc. or some combination thereof.
One of the problems - perhaps the central problem - of the current system is that dollars and euros etc. try to be both a medium of exchange as well as a store of value. In 2010 Robert Zoellick of the World Bank proposed using gold as a reference point in the financial system, pointing to a future where gold will assume the role of store of value, freeing up: dollars, euros, yuan etc. to play the role of medium of exchange. There will be no gold standard or gold-backed currency because these lead - as history shows us - to the undervaluation of gold. Instead, gold will be free to float, mostly upward, because human nature being what it is too much currency will always be printed. Therefore I do not believe that China and Russia are preparing to roll out a gold-backed currency. We've been there and we know it doesn't work. They are however preparing for the acceleration in the ongoing failure of paper currency as a store of value. Some combination of currencies - or perhaps the SDR - will then be brought out to serve as a medium of exchange. They'll probably chop a few zeroes off the dollar, euro, pound and the others and just carry on.
There is an assumption many people make that the collapse is yet to begin. However, the absurdity of negative interest rates - already present in many countries, shows that the system is irretrievably broken. This site here is looking at some of the tremors in the US public pension system preceding the main earthquake.
http://www.pensiontsunami.com/
I think you are too pessimistic regarding people being brainwashed by socialism. First of all let's not forget that socialism does not work and would not work even if everybody believed in it. Secondly, I have visited several countries - behind the Iron Curtain in the 80s for example - where many people, although quite able to mouth socialist platitudes when it suited them, were often resolutely entrepreneurial in their personal behaviour. When the incentives change, people will change.
Sigh, here we go again. Have you ever heard the adage, "A broken clock is right twice a day?"
There will always be economic downturns. They were there before with a gold standard and they will continue to be there with fiat.
Here's my prediction: we are all going to die. But don't ask me when to time it.
It's one of the easiest and sure fire calls to make guys! /sarcasm
Do you know who is affected most by a pension system collapse? Retirees and those living on a fixed income. Do you seriously think a bunch of geriatrics are going to riot and shoot up the place?
I'm frankly getting tired of all of the doom porn metal bugs and their spouting off the same tired talking points. ZH was at one point a great blog with serious financial information. It has now become a great reposter of some of the worst chicken little blog reposts out there.
Even Martin Armstrong can't resist the urge to call for collapse. It's just too juicy to loop in the true paranoid patriots who bury their heads in the sand instead of fixing the problems. This is all while the elites are laughing themselves to their banks in New York and Geneva.
America isn't going anywhere and the dollar will be the reserve currency for a good extra couple hundred of years. Why? Because might makes right and the US is the cleanest shirt in the dirty basket of "trust" . Do you really think the debt actually matters when you can project your military might all over the world?
Even better, do you seriously think if China or Russia default on their promises that they would actually pony up that gold to pay you back?
![[Image: 49074182.jpg]](http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/thumb/msid-49074182,width-400,resizemode-4/49074182.jpg)
When the going gets tough, Russia and China will renege on their promises. No one is getting any gold for a failed deal.
Ever see this graph before? Of course you have, because it's one of the most popular doom fap graphs out there.
![[Image: gundlach1.png]](http://z822j1x8tde3wuovlgo7ue15.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/gundlach1.png)
One of these is not like that other. i'll give you a hint: which one of these were colonial powers and which ones aren't? Because that will give you a reason why there will be staying power for American influence.
America is Rome and just like Rome, America will descend into an autocratic empire for another 250 years before its influence disappears in the world.
The only "doom" we should be preparing ourselves for is the inevitable Muslim uprisings. That is where the true disaster will occur when we finally end our dependence on Arab oil.
Have fun stacking excessive amounts of gold and silver while other financial instruments exceed the rate of inflation.
(This post was last modified: 04-03-2017 11:44 AM by The Beast1.)
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