Post: #24326

(03-18-2016 06:44 PM)Libertas Wrote:  I wouldn't rule out a last minute attempt to change the 1,237 rule if Trump gets all the delegates he needs.

Every hailmary that they can throw at him will be thrown.

What seems more likely is that a lot of the delegates that Trump won will just vote for someone else instead. That is what happened to Ron Paul at the republican convention 4 years ago. It was odd, because Ron Paul was not going to win, Romney won easily but the republicans at the convention wanted to screw Ron Paul anyways. It didn't make much sense.

Post: #24327

(03-19-2016 01:54 AM)username Wrote:  I got tickets for the Trump event in Tucson tomorrow. To those of you that have gone to a Trump event recently, how early do you recommend getting there?

What time is the Tucson rally? I'm about 4 hours away and was thinking about driving down if I can finish up work early.

There wasn't any info on the Convention Center website and Trump's site just listed the SLC and PHX info.

Post: #24328

(03-19-2016 03:26 AM)Chauncey Wrote:  What time is the Tucson rally? I'm about 4 hours away and was thinking about driving down if I can finish up work early.

There wasn't any info on the Convention Center website and Trump's site just listed the SLC and PHX info.

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/donald-j-tr...3290812447

3PM. Let me know me know if you make it, we can meet up.

Post: #24329

(03-18-2016 05:49 PM)Requiem Wrote:  

(03-18-2016 05:14 PM)Gmac Wrote:  All my life, living mostly in the US, I've always used white / jew interchangeably if it applied. I never understood all the jew hate, but then again I never lived in the northeast.

You don't have to know them personally to understand the general sentiment against them. A little bit of research would do the trick. A lot of Jews nowadays can be nice people, so knowing some wouldn't even automatically help you understand the sentiment based on personal experience.

But Jew-hate or not - calling Jews white is a deplorable custom and it would be greatly appreciated if more people were aware of the differences and not use that description for them anymore. It would be like calling Indians black. Just because the skin color can sometimes look the same doesn't make them the same ethnicity.

At one time Catholics were considered something beyond just white as well.

Jews only have their thing going because a nutjob Austrian killed a few million of them.

And they play that card better than any other "race" out there.

Post: #24330

(03-18-2016 01:01 PM)Orion Wrote:  Anyway, is Rubio going to be slain in some kind of macabre ritual for failing his cult leaders during a meeting in a tower of a Gothic castle.

I was thinking it would be more like the scene in From Russia With Love where Kronsteen and Klebb are called before Spectre for failing them. Jeb would be next to Rubio of course.

Post: #24331

(03-18-2016 07:02 PM)RIslander Wrote:  Heres the aftermath when peaceful, non-violent liberals see your shitlord of a car:

Opens up all sorts of opportunities for insurance fraud.

Post: #24332

Post: #24333

(03-18-2016 10:55 PM)Mr. Pink Wrote:  I never really followed Infowars, how much reach does this Alex Jones have exactly? What's the viewership like? How reliable is it as a source of information? I've always been put off by his clickbaity style of delivering his message and peddling of questionable products. He spends 10 minutes in this video going off about how Donald Trump is the real deal, that he's deeply informed about the globalist agenda, and that Trump has a plan and truly does want to the man that saves America. Followed of course by a 2 minute bullshit infomercial.

They have to make their money somehow!

By the way, i was in my local shop the other day and saw Oreos on the biscuit shelf. My first thought was "NO MORE OREOS"!

Post: #24334

Cuck Romney getting absolutely murdered on Facebook:

   

When the comments criticizing your post have half as many likes as your own post, you know you're in trouble!

Post: #24335

(03-19-2016 05:51 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Cuck Romney getting absolutely murdered on Facebook:



When the comments criticizing your post have half as many likes as your own post, you know you're in trouble!

Half? It's more like double! These guys are like the kiss of death when they speak. They'd do more good just staying quiet.

Post: #24336

(03-19-2016 05:51 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Cuck Romney getting absolutely murdered on Facebook:



When the comments criticizing your post have half as many likes as your own post, you know you're in trouble!

That one comment has 7.879 likes (I just liked it so it's up tp 7880). Romney actually only get 12k likes (and 800 other positive reactions). So that comment alone has nearly 2/3 the likes he got.

I suggest that we RVF members mass like that comment and make it surface again. Get /pol/ and r/The_Donald in also to troll the heck out of Romney.

Post: #24337

(03-19-2016 06:28 AM)Liberty Sea Wrote:  

(03-19-2016 05:51 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Cuck Romney getting absolutely murdered on Facebook:



When the comments criticizing your post have half as many likes as your own post, you know you're in trouble!

That one comment has 7.879 likes (I just liked it so it's up tp 7880). Romney actually only get 12k likes (and 800 other positive reactions). So that comment alone has nearly 2/3 the likes he got.

I suggest that we RVF members mass like that comment and make it surface again. Get /pol/ and r/The_Donald in also to troll the heck out of Romney.

Speaking of /pol/, I found this gem:

Post: #24338

Bill Mitchell is well worth following on Twitter for great Trump commentary and analysis. Yesterday he started a new video series, the first of which below clearly explains the contested/brokered convention scenario and its likelihood.
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii

Post: #24339

(03-19-2016 03:14 AM)eradicator Wrote:  

(03-18-2016 06:44 PM)Libertas Wrote:  I wouldn't rule out a last minute attempt to change the 1,237 rule if Trump gets all the delegates he needs.

Every hailmary that they can throw at him will be thrown.

What seems more likely is that a lot of the delegates that Trump won will just vote for someone else instead. That is what happened to Ron Paul at the republican convention 4 years ago. It was odd, because Ron Paul was not going to win, Romney won easily but the republicans at the convention wanted to screw Ron Paul anyways. It didn't make much sense.

That's kind of what I meant. They'll try to make the delegates unbound on the first ballot and basically make all the primaries thus far meaningless. The 1,237 rule is as arbitrary as the rest of them and they'll throw it out if they have to. I don't put it past these people at all and it's what Roger Stone seems to think.

Post: #24340

(03-19-2016 07:43 AM)Libertas Wrote:  The 1,237 rule is as arbitrary as the rest of them and they'll throw it out if they have to.

Well, not exactly. Unless by arbitrary you meant something other than what I have in mind.
There are a total of 2,472 delegates on the Republican side. Half of that is 1,236. So the gist of it is clear and logical: you have to get (at least 1 delegate) over half of the total delegates in order to get the nomination. The Democrat rule is the same. The general election rule is also basically the same. I wouldn't say there is anything arbitrary about it and I don't think it's going to be changed.

Post: #24341

Some rules can be changed by the committee that meets before the convention and others can't.

Post: #24342

I mean they can increase the number of delegates in the field. They can require that you have a supermajority. They can try to make all the delegates unbound meaning what you have is moot.

They can try anything.

Post: #24343

I actually don't expect any convention shenanigans because Trump voters are simply too much of the party to slant in an obvious way. It would destroy the party for decades.

We should expect a fake "tea party" or similarly labeled right-wing candidate to run 3rd party. This person will suddenly come out of no-where, with with tens of millions in dirty money to push in ads and campaigning. He will be similar to Cruz, mostly talking about how god and the constitution must be worshipped. It will cause a 3rd party spoiler.

Theres a very distinct difference in those two scenarios:

RNC steals Nomination --> Republican party destroyed for several election cycles, possibly for much longer if another conservative type party gains traction. Hillary wins.

or better yet:

RNC bows to Trump, secretly pushes idiotic "tea party" candidate and steals 10% of the vote. Trump loses election by less than 10%, RNC runs propoganda smear campaign because "he lost the election". RNC preserved. Hillary wins.

We need to be extremely keen on any sudden "rise" of a 3rd party candidate that isnt already out there and reveal that bullshit immediately.

Post: #24344

(03-19-2016 01:59 AM)Patriarch Wrote:  

(03-19-2016 01:01 AM)eradicator Wrote:  

(03-18-2016 11:41 PM)Patriarch Wrote:  A centipede just crawled down the wall right next to my arm, and the very first thing that popped into my head was Trump. The centipede has two curved, hollow fangs...

Crawl on, nimble navigator.

My first thought upon seeing a centipede with fangs is to get a can of raid. It's awesome that your first thought is of Trump

I was in a public place, so my gut instinct of punching it in the face with the strength of Ivan Drago and screaming "FUCK YOU" had to be suppressed.

Then you are a stronger man than I, sir. Wouldn't have mattered if I were in a public place or not, I would have totally lost my shit if a centipede crawled on my arm. Fucking hate those things. Hate hate hate HATE them. Hate them even more than I hate Hillary.

Post: #24345

(03-19-2016 08:11 AM)mickeyd Wrote:  We should expect a fake "tea party" or similarly labeled right-wing candidate to run 3rd party. This person will suddenly come out of no-where, with with tens of millions in dirty money to push in ads and campaigning. He will be similar to Cruz, mostly talking about how god and the constitution must be worshipped. It will cause a 3rd party spoiler.

Here's a handy list of third party candidates for the Presidency.

The absolute cutoff for nominating for the Presidency seems to be in September 2016. That would mean that if there's going to be a run, it has to be in the next six months, and it has to be on a field wide enough to attract 10% of the vote in enough areas to deny Trump 270 Electoral College Votes.

The only groups that are even on sufficient ballots to even possibly get 270 electoral votes are the Greens and the Libertarians. Can't see either of them pulling a 10% swing nationwide in enough areas to deny Trump 270 votes. And money for paid media, as Trump is demonstrating, only goes so far. They've spent 40 million -- Republican and Democrat -- on attack ads and negative publicity, and Trump's numbers have kept on rising, because he keeps dominating free media -- everytime the election is mentioned, his name keeps coming up.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but to raise a candidate that fast from zero to hero, with Trump's presence and manner dominating the airwaves, is going to involve not spending tens of millions, but hundreds of millions even to get a 10% swing against Trump nationwide. I really doubt six or seven months is enough time. Hell, Hilary is already attacking Trump and he's not even the Republican nominee yet - she knows as well as everyone else the clock is ticking out.

I saw an analysis that runs the line that it's very, very, very unlikely that they will try and steal Trump's nomination off him at the convention. The very fact the option has been discussed, in connection with Trump's genial assertion that "There could be rioting" and Cruz's assertion that "A brokered convention would be a disaster", means that the eyes of the nation if not the world will be on the RNC.

The American public is expecting someone to try and diddle Trump out of the nomination because he's implicitly predicted that's what they'll do -- and the Republican Party has been kicking so many own-goals on this one you'd think they were playing for the Democrats.

First they didn't respond to his 'threat' early enough; second they then gave him oxygen by launching an all-out MSM press offensive against him; and third, they were dumb enough to even speak of the possibility that an elite few might try and take the nomination away from him in a backroom deal at the RNC. Doing so would prove Trump right, and any insider there must by now realise that if they go to a brokered convention and/or don't make Trump the candidate, it will be not just a lost election but a destroyed Republican Party for decades to come.

God save us from people who mean well. -storm

Post: #24346

Fast forward to 2:34

"Relax, you're losing it Bill"

another shitlord stumping a pundit. and Bill Kristol clearly butthurt, talking through his teeth, feigning a smile

Post: #24347

The talk of a contested convention or a serious third party candidacy is overblown. It is just web chatter by people who want to whine for some time before they accept the realities.

There will be no contested convention if Trump gets anywhere near to half the delegates -- he does not have to actually cross the magical threshold of 1237. The party will not deny the nomination to a candidate who has a commanding delegate lead and close to a majority of delegates (let alone an outright majority). It simply will not happen, and all discussion of it is a fantasy.

The only scenario under which there will be a contested convention is one in which the Trump campaign severely underperforms from here on in. If Cruz wins a clear majority of the still outstanding states and delegates, and Trump fails to wins some of the states he is "supposed" to win, then we could have a situation in which Trump still has a delegate lead by convention time, but he is well short of a majority and has performed poorly down the stretch. In this case -- and only in this case -- there will be a multiple ballot convention vote and then Trump will not be the nominee (even if he has a nominal lead in delegates). Cruz would be the most likely nominee if this were to happen, but you could even have wild cards like Kasich or Paul Ryan (very unlikely) win in later rounds.

In short, it's not really about counting every last delegate. Of course the more states and delegates Trump wins the stronger his position will be, but the reality is that unless his campaign implodes between now and June, he will be the nominee. And that (an implosion) could happen but it's quite unlikely at this point. The prediction markets give Trump about an 80% chance of being the nominee and that seems very reasonable.

As far as a third party candidacy goes, the organizational hurdles to actually getting a candidate on the ballot and financing a 50 state campaign are very high, and the preparations would have to start yesterday. Further, although there will be some prominent Republicans who will not endorse Trump, there will be far fewer who would be willing to wage a campaign against the party's nominee. And Trump will make it harder for them by adopting an ever more unifying and conciliatory tone once he is the clear presumptive nominee. So this is not a realistic scenario either.

What we are looking at in reality is a Trump vs Clinton campaign which will be brutal, intense, and endlessly hilarious. Trump is a clear underdog in that campaign -- anyone who thinks he is the favorite against the HAG, let alone will "beat her easily", fundamentally misunderstands American CUNTS and their lust for power and revenge. But he has a real chance and with a combination of true rhetorical genius and some luck a win is just about possible. Get ready for the fight and do all you can to help, but please don't let your expectations get too high at any time. I don't want this forum to be like a funeral parlor in mid November just because the most likely outcome actually comes to pass. There will always be time to savor the sweetness of an unlikely win if the Gods will it to fall into our laps.

Post: #24348

^^^^^

This is just another form of "The man who has said for the 14th time that Trump's campaign is going to implode."

Trump is going to get the nomination if the polls that are coming out about California, Arizona, etc, are true. Hes up 20% in big states.

The issue is what will happen in the election and honestly, if someone is telling you they know they are lying. I believe its going to be absolutely mayhem with attack ads, insane yelling, twitter wars, riots, tear gas, million man marches, etc. Its going to be the end of times I think. But if Trump comes through with his cool demeanor and sweeps the public off their feet, the Trump Train will keep on rolling into the White House.

Post: #24349

Never forget the (((Shapiro))) face/heel turn


Also some related Shapiro trolling video

Post: #24350

(03-19-2016 09:32 AM)The Lizard of Oz Wrote:  The talk of a contested convention or a serious third party candidacy is overblown. It is just web chatter by people who want to whine for some time before they accept the realities.

It's not web chatter.

Mitt Romney is publicly calling for a brokered convention, delegates like Curly Haugland are publicly saying that the primaries don't matter, and John Kasich is only in the race for the sole purpose of siphoning votes from Trump.

The entire Republican establishment is openly planning and attempting to force a brokered convention.

That does not mean it is guaranteed to happen, but it's certainly much more than a mere "fantasy".

There's a reason that Roosh, Mike Cernovich, and many others are planning meetups at the RNC in Cleveland.