Post: #19476

(03-08-2016 09:01 PM)The Lizard of Oz Wrote:  Rubio is getting wiped out across the board. He may win in Hawaii (he is the nominal favorite there) but with numbers like these there will be real pressure on him to drop out sooner rather than later.

It looks to me like In these states Trump has stolen votes from Little Marco. Katich also probably got a few in Mich

Post: #19477

(03-08-2016 09:01 PM)The Lizard of Oz Wrote:  This may end up being the best night for Trump since South Carolina in terms of matching and outperforming expectations. The boyz over at fivethirtyeight have fallen very gloomy and silent.

They're some of the least objective statisticians I've ever seen.

Every time Trump proves then wrong, I have the biggest fucking smile on my face.

Post: #19478

(03-08-2016 09:08 PM)Anabasis to Desta Wrote:  Trump has an 11 point lead over Cruz in Mississippi 48 to 37.

He's got a 12 point lead over Kasich in Michigan 38-26.

Yet MS has been called for Trump while Michigan is still in play. How does that work?

Those who haven't called it are waiting for the Detroit region to report first to be sure.

Post: #19479

The emperor speaks!

Post: #19480

Huffpo isn't sounding as angry anymore.

Post: #19481

(03-08-2016 09:09 PM)iop890 Wrote:  Press conference stream:

Starting.

Post: #19482

(03-08-2016 09:09 PM)Mark Fletcher Wrote:  If he gets 50+ in Mississippi, does it become winner take all, or would he just get a bunch more?

It becomes winner take all. Would be the cherry on top.

Post: #19483

(03-08-2016 09:09 PM)Mark Fletcher Wrote:  If he gets 50+ in Mississippi, does it become winner take all, or would he just get a bunch more?

Not much more, sadly.

MS's 40: 28 delegates are proportional based on statewide vote and 12 are district based.

4 districts, 3 delegates per district.

Good news: any district Trump gets over 50% in, he gets all 3 delegates.
Otherwise, he gets 2 and the second place person (Cruz) gets 1.

So Trump's guaranteed 8 of 12 at the district level, should be more (maybe all 12?) depending how the statewide vote shakes out.

So Trump's Mississippi haul will be anywhere from 22 to 26, likely 24 or 25. Not too shabby.


More importantly: the way I read the Michigan rules the other day, the winner in a district (regardless of whether a majority or a plurality) gets all 3 delegates in the district and unlike Mississippi, Michigan has 14 districts. Hence why I theorized the other day Trump could get 50 of Michigan's 59... but I think Kasich is playing strongly in some districts so that may be too lofty.


Edit: Mississippi delegate breakdown - http://frontloading.blogspot.ca/2016/03/...ion_8.html - note NO winner-take-all trigger at the statewide level so Dismal Operator's not right, unless I'm missing/misreading something.

Post: #19484

Well this is certainly proving the primary vs manipulated caucus argument to be true for Trump. Primaries from here on out for the top states should be great news for more delegates.

Post: #19485

Paul Ryan called him?

Trump's obviously trying to pivot.

Post: #19486

"I want to thank the Special Interests and Lobbyists"

Post: #19487

BOOM! Hell Yeah. This day could have gone either way for Trump given the slight drag on his momentum after the debate and an "OK but slightly underwhelming" Saturday performance considering Kansas and Maine. No way he was going to win less than two states today, but this was a great way to start off with two states to go. He won delegates AND narrative today. Saturday was par for the course but today he is batting above that right now. Here's hoping that Idaho and Hawaii come in strong as well.

Post: #19488

We're seeing the "kinder, gentler" Trump tonight.

Post: #19489

I'm looking at the exit poll and it looks like Bernie is highly competitive in Michigan.

Post: #19490

   

Post: #19491

(03-08-2016 09:20 PM)YossariansRight Wrote:  We're seeing the "kinder, gentler" Trump tonight.

Asshole Trump gets the blue tie

Calm Trump gets the red tie

Easy way to know which one you're going to see

Post: #19492

STEAKS

Post: #19493

(03-08-2016 09:20 PM)blacknwhitespade Wrote:  I'm looking at the exit poll and it looks like Bernie is highly competitive in Michigan.

Slightly ahead last I saw.

Post: #19494

STEAKS!

Post: #19495

Now he's playfully "fuck you-ing" Mittens Romney.

Post: #19496

(03-08-2016 07:49 PM)BIG BOSS Wrote:  I'm starting to have my doubts about Trumps nomination. Cruz is on the rise. Pisses me off how suddenly the GOP now cares about "conservative principles" and Donald does little to deter this fallacious frame. Tired of people whos heads are stuck in the clouds, be they liberals or cuckservatives who can't stop jacking off to anything right of center. One bitch I know even suggested Trump is as left as Obummer. Who knew that "conservatism" would be what gave this country away?

My only hope is that once people see that Cruz has become the establishment favorite, they'll drop him like they dropped Queerio and Jeb! before him.

F you 26 posts no reps, May you enjoy your ban!

Post: #19497

He should stop bringing up Trump University. Time to reframe.

Post: #19498

It is great to see Trump get 50% vs 2 strong candidates in Cruz and Kasich, and a decent candidate with a lot of money in Rubio.

So much for ceilings.

Post: #19499

Marco! Polls low!

Marco! Polls low!

Post: #19500

He's going all presidential again. He's been very calm tonight and him emphasizing his support for "legal immigration" was calculated.