(11-09-2016 02:20 AM)EvanWilson Wrote: Bloomberg is talking about "Hillary is on a path to a popular vote".
Unbelievable. If the roles were reversed Hillary would have given her victory speech already.
She'd better not be, I've got a couple of hundred on Trump for that at good odds....
Might have been posted already, but Republicans have taken the House and the Senate according to Google. So President Trump should have an easier time reversing the decline.
You guys have been great. I've been watching since 2AM here. Florida was nail biting.
In all fairness, I think with everything that we know about how Hillary handles problems like this, she is probably in no condition to be able to give a concession speech tonight, and the whole 'waiting for all of the votes to be counted' is really a reason to allow her a chance to compose herself and give a proper concession speech.
I'm not seeing a path to victory here, and we've got to move on, the victory was solid, the South, the Midwest, the Rust Belt, it's a healthy victory.
At least I hope she takes the night to let the shock she might be in sink in, and then give a gracious concession speech, but she should have conceded tonight, Trump won fair and square, and this is not good.
(11-09-2016 02:21 AM)Genghis Khan Wrote: Nate Silver - what an incredibly sour person. Even when shown to be wrong, instead of gracefully acknowledging his mistakes he goes on to attack other people. They have the worst people, don't they folks.
Actually, Nate Silver was the only forecaster who had a good handle on the election -- he was the only one who kept hammering the idea that there was a lot of uncertainty and anything could happen. The other models were truly absurd -- they were showing 90% or 99% probabilities of an HRC win. The 538 model is the only one that's held up well.
Nate is not all bad, he is a real pro and the models he builds are excellent. He is worthless as a pundit -- when he strays away from the numbers (as he did in the primaries), he is as clueless as anyone else. But his models are good and he is conscientious and thorough about them, unlike almost everyone else.
I posted the following on a blog in Australia, one that's pro-Trump and following events here with great interest:
RealClearPolitics has called Pennsylvania for Trump! (RCP is the standard setting web-based authority on politics, recognized both Left and Right. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/) THIS MEANS Trump wins! 274 Electoral Votes (270 being the winning total).
The London Express
quotes Nigel Farage, calling this event "BIGGER than Brexit!"
Quote:Speaking to ITV, Mr Farage said the predicted victory would be one of “two great political revolutions” seen across the world in 2016.
He said: “I’m not particularly surprised because the political class is reviled across much of the West, the polling industry is bankrupt and the press just hasn’t woken up to what’s going on in the world.
“So, 2016, by the looks of it, is going to be the year of two great political revolutions.
“I thought Brexit was big, but boy, this looks like it’s going to be even bigger.”
Fox Business in New York is reporting that Democrat sources say a meeting by Trump with President Obama on Thursday is in the works.
While the tidying up on "Final Calls" awaits, plans for a transition to President Trump, with Republican majorities in Congress, appear to be lining up. Therefore, quick legislative reform actions and innovations by next spring looms likely.
At the very worst, Arizona plus New Hampshire would result in a 269-269 Electoral vote tie, then going to Congress (The House) for a tie-breaking vote - for Trump, naturally.
More likely, counting of votes in a few states will be completed tomorrow. In Pennsylvania, for example, it takes 0.5% race to trigger automatic recount. At this point, the margin is about twice that, and so a recount - which could run into next week - is unlikely to be required.