(10-07-2016 12:58 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote: Do you believe these polls are an accurate representation of the state of things on the ground? I don't. I've been watching this election as closely as any of you guys, and I'll tell you this. I've seen Republicans that don't like Trump. I've seen Independents that don't like Trump. I've seen Democrats that don't like Trump. But I'll tell you what I haven't seen is a single person switching party ID over Trump. The #NeverTrump crowd thinks that they're the real heirs to the Republican party, and are eagerly waiting for Trump's demise so that they can retake it. They want to banish the Trumpublicans out of the party, not leave it themselves. Independents seem to feel similarly. The general feeling among everybody is that Trump is sui generis, and that once the election is over, for better or for worse, the old ways will resume.
Where is this massive surge of democrats coming from? Who are these people who are democrats now, but who weren't before?
From what I see on the ground, I do indeed see a lot more Trump supporters. I've actually been going out of my way to look for enthusiastic supporters of Clinton and I've been coming up empty. When I'm driving around, I consistently see Trump lawn signs and Trump bumper stickers. When I talk to regular every day people such as my barber or just listen in to conversations in public spaces I hear people talking about their support of Trump. I've randomly met people who were supporting Trump when I do Uber driving and when I'm waiting in concert lines. In my own personal life I see enthusiasm for Trump and virtually none for Hillary. I am still worried about Trump's chances because I was seeing the exact same situation when Bernie was still in the running for being the Democratic nominee and going further back, when Ron Paul was running for the Republican nomination in 2008.
As much Trump stickers and signs I am seeing now, I still remember seeing more Sanders promotional material earlier this year and late last year. The vast majority of the people I know who were supporting a candidate were supporting Sanders. If enthusiasm on the internet could translate to winning an election then Ron Paul not only would have won the Presidency but would also have been elected as the Exalted Eternal Emperor of the Empire of Libertaria (formerly known as the United States of America) back in 2008 and Sanders would have done the same this year. Sanders was also staging huge rallies in the same way that Trump was doing so and is still now. We all know now what was the final result for each of these campaigns.
I agree 100% that the energy and enthusiasm from Trump supporters completely blows away what you see from Clinton supporters. There is an issue however. There's a huge group of people who do not swing either way and at this point I think these people are going to be learning towards Clinton unless something changes. I'm sure among these people a good portion of them are looking to vote for Trump but have some sort of reservation about making the plunge. I related a story a few pages back about how I was discussing Trump with my barber who is also a Trump supporter. As I said, I'm always trying to figure out where all the Hillary supporters are since she's constantly ahead in the poll (she's consistently double digits ahead of Trump in my costal blue state) but I never seem to run into them so I asked her if she knew any Clinton supporters. She said the majority of her customers have stated they were voting for Clinton. I asked about the demographics of these customers assuming the would be middle aged cat lady and soccer mom types but to my surprise she said they were mostly men in their middle ages. I dug in for more details and it turns out pretty much none of these potential voters actually like Hillary but are voting for her only because they are afraid of Trump being in the White house with his "temperament" and "big mouth" being the deciding factors. If Trump could re-assure voters like this that he isn't what he is constantly being portrayed as by the media then he has a very good chance of bringing over these people to his side but this late into his campaign he's still making unforced errors that are not doing him any favors in pivoting to a new image that reassures voters like the ones I just described. These guys want an excuse to vote for Trump and he isn't giving it to them unless you want to think the Pence/Kaine debate is gonna have a big effect.
As many Trump supporters as I meet I still run into way more Trump haters. These people are not Clinton nutriders by any means. They range from either being uncomfortable with her to pretty not caring about her at all. These people consistently post on social media about how much they hate Trump and jump on pretty much every media manufactured "scandal" that comes up weekly. During the first debate, these people would write play by play statuses on social media mocking each line Trump would say and afterwards were gleeful about his subpar showing. What was interesting was that among all the Trump hate they didn't mention once anything about Hillary doing well. In fact, they didn't mention her at all. To them, Hillary could have been replaced on stage with a can of beans. The fact that she's merely not Trump is enough for them. These are the people that are driving Hillary ahead in the polls.
I don't think there's a massive surge of Democrats coming out of nowhere championing for Hillary. I also haven't seen any Republicans jumping parties like you said. I also think that Clinton's not gonna need either of those things to occur to win. In the end, remember that an enthusiastic vote is worth the same as one being cast with nose held closed. The best hope we have is that it's true that people are more likely to come out to vote for a candidate they really like as opposed to come out to vote against a candidate they detest.
With the media manufacturing outrage over Trump's most recent "lewd comments on women" controversy, and Crooked Hillary's DC Leaks/WikiLeaks problems, mark my words:
Proper frame control will be of the utmost importance come Sunday's second Presidential Debate. The "winner" will be whoever can more successfully pivot and draw attention away from their own scandal(s) and redirect focus onto their opponent's.
You can bet that with the election nearly a month away, it's only going to get crazier from here on out.
Quote:*Hillary Clinton: “I'm Kind Of Far Removed” From The Struggles Of The Middle Class “Because The Life I've Lived And The Economic, You Know, Fortunes That My Husband And I Now Enjoy.” *“And I am not taking a position on any policy, but I do think there is a growing sense of anxiety and even anger in the country over the feeling that the game is rigged. And I never had that feeling when I was growing up. Never. I mean, were there really rich people, of course there were. My father loved to complain about big business and big government, but we had a solid middle class upbringing. We had good public schools. We had accessible health care. We had our little, you know, one-family house that, you know, he saved up his money, didn't believe in mortgages. So I lived that. And now, obviously, I'm kind of far removed because the life I've lived and the economic, you know, fortunes that my husband and I now enjoy, but I haven't forgotten it.” [Hillary Clinton Remarks at Goldman-Black Rock, 2/4/14]
Quote:*Hillary Clinton Said Her Dream Is A Hemispheric Common Market, With Open Trade And Open Markets. *“My dream is a hemispheric common market, with open trade and open borders, some time in the future with energy that is as green and sustainable as we can get it, powering growth and opportunity for every person in the hemisphere.” [05162013 Remarks to Banco Itau.doc, p. 28]
It would not take long to read aloud and the impact would be tremendous. Even if Trump reads this out on one of his road stops, he should still read this during the debates. When he said that Hillary would say anything to get elected (as well as Obama saying that), this is the kind of stuff what they were talking about.
He could even follow it up with her Deplorable comment, as a trend, of arrogant elitism when in polite company. If he is really feeling it, he could follow up with something of the effect of "What is next? Do you like to use the n word, but only in polite company?"
This is "Gloves Off" stuff without having to get nasty about it and throwing mud. When your opponent is hurting themselves, you gotta help them out. This would do the trick. The debates will have everyone's attention. Saying this only on the road isn't good enough. The MSM won't carry your message well. Gotta use that big stage to remind folks that work too much to follow the daily news.
Obama and idiots are trying to save face for the leaks that just dropped. They don't have any fucking proof of that. They just want to raise anxiety about Russia being aggressive against us after moving an S-300 missile truck into Syria and not doing anything about it because that would pretty much mean war.
The fact anyone (much less the media and an entire political party) is trying to drum up some kind of feud between the US and Russia and revive the Cold War just further shows how ridiculously disconnected the left is from reality.
Seriously, Russia?
It's like trying to blame a ghost or aliens for your own poor behavior or lack of answers. No one but crazy people buy it, and even then deep down they know you're full of shit.
Remember when it was the left that would constantly accuse conservatives of being paranoid about Russia/Communism and of instigating hostilities with foreign powers?
(10-07-2016 07:33 PM)Wutang Wrote: Remember when it was the left that would constantly accuse conservatives of being paranoid about Russia/Communism and of instigating hostilities with foreign powers?
"The cold war is over, mittens, lol the eighties called they want their foriegn policy back haha!"
Not that Mittens isn't a colossal faggot/cultist/traitor/etc.
These tapes are going to hurt Trump. It's hard to say how much, but the damage will be real.
However, it's obvious that the media/the Clinton campaign (but I repeat myself) have been sitting on this for awhile. They released them now for a reason. Why? Because they had to distract attention away from the recent email leaks. That means there is some seriously juicy, damaging stuff contained in them. Something so damaging that they were forced to deploy one of their reserved attacks against Trump on a Friday evening (the worst timing for the news cycle) simply to play defense.
Soon it will be apparent what forced their hand, and hopefully it will be so damaging that people forget this Trump leak.
The MSM misleading journalists, talking about locker-room comments made by Trump about some woman, 11 years ago.
Meanwhile, the media is mum on the man who's about to be picked as new UN head: a Portuguese, former head of the International Socialist! I kid you not! More leftist than that, there isn't, they don't even try to conceal it.
I mean, what's more important, D. Trump laughing 11 years ago about some hot chick, or the "neutral" United Nations choosing a portuguese Bernie Sanders, former leader of the global Left?
(10-07-2016 07:39 PM)scorpion Wrote: These tapes are going to hurt Trump. It's hard to say how much, but the damage will be real.
However, it's obvious that the media/the Clinton campaign (but I repeat myself) have been sitting on this for awhile. They released them now for a reason. Why? Because they had to distract attention away from the recent email leaks. That means there is some seriously juicy, damaging stuff contained in them. Something so damaging that they were forced to deploy one of their reserved attacks against Trump on a Friday evening (the worst timing for the news cycle) simply to play defense.
Soon it will be apparent what forced their hand, and hopefully it will be so damaging that people forget this Trump leak.
The speculation is it will neuter Trump during the debate if he mentions any of the women Bill "had".
Trump's "scandal" is simple. Crooked Hillary's complex.
Trump's "scandal" is something that can be spread around easily, shared over social media, etc. Hell, I've already seen it advertised in my area to be shown on the 6 o'clock news.
Crooked Hillary's, on the other hand, is complex. When DC Leaks/Wikileaks drops this kind of shit -- they just drop a bunch at once without necessarily drawing attention to the best stuff. Of course the media is biased, so her stuff probably won't get nearly the same level of coverage.
Since most people are inherently stupid, they'll no doubt focus their attention on the one that's easier to explain to others, which unfortunately in this case is about Trump. I still think he can rebound, but obviously this whole situation is far from ideal. As I've mentioned a few times now, the real issue and the potential showstopper is if the DHS gets clearance to "monitor" the election. If that happens, it's hard to imagine this election without a stolen outcome.
(10-07-2016 07:39 PM)scorpion Wrote: These tapes are going to hurt Trump. It's hard to say how much, but the damage will be real.
However, it's obvious that the media/the Clinton campaign (but I repeat myself) have been sitting on this for awhile. They released them now for a reason. Why? Because they had to distract attention away from the recent email leaks. That means there is some seriously juicy, damaging stuff contained in them. Something so damaging that they were forced to deploy one of their reserved attacks against Trump on a Friday evening (the worst timing for the news cycle) simply to play defense.
Soon it will be apparent what forced their hand, and hopefully it will be so damaging that people forget this Trump leak.
The speculation is it will neuter Trump during the debate if he mentions any of the women Bill "had".
Nope. She will bring it up regardless. That is why he needs to add some of this fire from these leaks and hit her over the head with her own incompetence.
This time he cannot afford to not elaborate on her failings. He laid a foundation in the first debate on his plans and stump messages. Unless he is answering a question from the moderator, he needs to stay on her, and keep that stump stuff short and sweet.
(10-07-2016 07:49 PM)LeoneVolpe Wrote: Here's the problem with the most recent leaks...
Trump's "scandal" is simple. Crooked Hillary's complex.
Trump's "scandal" is something that can be spread around easily, shared over social media, etc. Hell, I've already seen it advertised in my area to be shown on the 6 o'clock news.
Crooked Hillary's, on the other hand, is complex. When DC Leaks/Wikileaks drops this kind of shit -- they just drop a bunch at once without necessarily drawing attention to the best stuff. Of course the media is biased, so her stuff probably won't get nearly the same level of coverage.
Since most people are inherently stupid, they'll no doubt focus their attention on the one that's easier to explain to others, which unfortunately in this case is about Trump. I still think he can rebound, but obviously this whole situation is far from ideal. As I've mentioned a few times now, the real issue and the potential showstopper is if the DHS gets clearance to "monitor" the election. If that happens, it's hard to imagine this election without a stolen outcome.
Im not so sure, the HRC camp uses everyone to amass power. The media are but useful idiots on their quest. Funny when that little secret gets out.
You're right about the DHS monitoring the elections though, that should be rattling a lot of people right now.
(10-07-2016 07:55 PM)TravelerKai Wrote: This time he cannot afford to not elaborate on her failings. He laid a foundation in the first debate on his plans and stump messages. Unless he is answering a question from the moderator, he needs to stay on her, and keep that stump stuff short and sweet.
I also felt he laid off of Hillary in the first debate for that purpose here. We shall see.
(10-07-2016 07:49 PM)LeoneVolpe Wrote: Here's the problem with the most recent leaks...
Trump's "scandal" is simple. Crooked Hillary's complex.
Trump's "scandal" is something that can be spread around easily, shared over social media, etc. Hell, I've already seen it advertised in my area to be shown on the 6 o'clock news.
Crooked Hillary's, on the other hand, is complex. When DC Leaks/Wikileaks drops this kind of shit -- they just drop a bunch at once without necessarily drawing attention to the best stuff. Of course the media is biased, so her stuff probably won't get nearly the same level of coverage.
But also, from the perspective of women - who have attention spans less than 2 minutes - which is easier for them to understand? Gossip or the Greatest Amount of Corruption in USA History?
What a mixed bag for the Democrats.
Sure, some low-T white knights & some fugly's will feign outrage at Trump.
Yet all the same, plenty of women will be amused / aroused by Trump's comments, plenty of men will say - hey he's just like us.
Plus, it's all to easy to point right back at Bill Clinton & his sordid past.
The fact that the RNC is rapidly pulling their support for Trump proves that the polarizing divide that is potrayed in DC is merely a smokescreen for well-connected elites to work together to fleece the American public.
The fact that so many mainstream new sources and politicians from his own party are so anti-Trump reinfocres my image of Trump as an outsider that intends to disrupt business as usual in their little scam.
Federal politics is as scripted and phony as pro wrestling.
By leaking this recording, Hillary Clinton showed the ugliest face of her campaign so far. This can't get any lower and has nothing to do with politics. It's astonishing to see, however, how easy the GOP falls into her traps by discrediting Trump. Let's hope Hillary messes up horribly in Sunday's debate.
As Scott Adams has said, Trump now has a pass to take this fight to the next level. I hope he gets some of Bills rape victims involved. Especially the ones Hillary tried to silence.
During the republican primaries Trump treated everyone with respect until they came after him and then and turned it back on them 100x worse. That was when he thrived and buried his opponents.
The last month of this race is going to be the nastiest political race we have ever seen.
I think its time for a 'Grab em In The Pussy' moneybomb