RVF PA, you only have 48 hours left to register to vote. If anyone from PA is reading this and hasn't registered to vote for Trump, do so now. This is a state we need. https://www.pavoterservices.state.pa.us/...ation.aspx

(03-27-2016 11:18 AM)JDog212 Wrote:  

(03-27-2016 08:57 AM)Tokyo Joe Wrote:  Gents: Trump has been rather quiet the past few days, but Sunday morning he had a call-in interview with ABC's This Week --

What he says on NATO is outstanding. Can you imagine the chaos in European countries when they realize they can't mooch off of the US for military protection? The US military is the military of Europe. But these eurocucks never fail to cite how America spends too much on its military. Well shit, maybe if you retards actually bothered to have your own militaries, we wouldn't be wasting 20% of OUR federal tax income on the military that currently protects you. It's utter bullshit. I say the US completely removes itself from any obligation to protect Europe. Then watch these European countries flip shit because they actually have to spend their own money on their own militaries to defend themselves. The eurocucks will go insane at first, but after a while, they'll accept that God Emperor Trump is not going to give them any more protection. They will be forced to build an Army that functions. They will lose millions of dollars in military spending. Money they previously used to pay for all the free shit they give to their citizens. Money they used to waste on rapefugees. This could also have some positive effects on nationalism in Europe. If people in Europe served in the military, they might grow a new sense of national pride.
Looking forward to the presidency of The God Emperor. He will be the greatest thing to happen to the West (not just the US) in centuries.

Wrong.

Your predictions of a Europe becoming united on a military front has its issues. Firstly, it will give Russia an overwhelmingly good position to move in and settle in countries that allow it to create more influence.

Russians are patient and creep up on you.

Secondly, the European nations do not see eye to eye and will splinter along political and ethnic lines. Germany would have no other choice but to cut off the Med countries and risk an all out run on its banks, compounding its debt issues to levels not yet seen.

The Eastern Bloc will feel threatened by Russia and go on the path to arm itself with everything it can get, especially Poland. They refuse to allow history to repeat itself.

With the US military presence gone, they no longer have influence in Britain, Europe or Turkey. No military bases, no military projection or alliances to boost their support.

In the end you will spend more to organise your military efforts abroad, you will lose many more lives and your attempts at revolutions will create even more disasters and terrorist activities.

Only this time Europe cannot rely on CIA and NSA intel and this will see hundreds of terrorist attacks on soft targets. Before we know it both our populace and militaries are in lockdown and see nothing but hatred.

History repeats.

Enigma,

As far as the current state of l'affaire Cruz, here are Mike C's conclusions as of today:

https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/714199509379600384

Quote:Mike Cernovich
[email protected]

After studying it all, my take is he and Amanda Carpenter had fling, the rest are b.s. That's why he's being vague.

https://twitter.com/Cernovich/status/714201902053851136

Quote:Mike Cernovich
[email protected]

Ted Cruz is not a womanizer or sex addict. My bet? It was a fling with Amanda Carpenter, who adored him. #CruzSexScandal

The reason I thought that Amanda was the only plausible candidate for an affair is that she is very obviously in love with Cruz (you can see it when you watch her talking about him). That doesn't mean that anything happened, but it's possible to believe it.

There is no obligation, in posts on this thread or elsewhere on the forum, to just wait for the facts to "fall where they may". This is not a court of law and we're not a jury. We can engage in informed speculation based on our opinions, views, and general understanding of the world. If we all just dully waited for the facts to fall where they may, this wouldn't be a very interesting forum.

When the story came out, I thought that it was extremely implausible based on my view of Cruz's character. He is indeed (as Mike notes above) very obviously not a cunthound or womanizer. He is also an exceptionally focused, disciplined and ambitious pol. Given all that, I thought it was extremely unlikely that he would be dumb enough to risk throwing away his life's work for some strange pussy. I continue to think it somewhat unlikely. I see nothing wrong with thinking this way; we draw conclusions based on character and personality all the time, as well we should.

Once the list of the possible candidates for an affair came out, I immediately pointed to Carpenter as the only plausible candidate. Once the Daily Beast story came out with its mention of the supposed Tuesdays/Thursdays hotel video, I started thinking that there is a chance there may be something to the story. All of this seems totally straightforward to me, and I see nothing wrong with it.

Lastly, I'm all for good, vigorous debate. When I speak of "fighting" I mean any personal stuff. It's just a distraction and there is no need for it.

That being said, I like the fact that you fight every step of the way and never give an inch. Long overdue +1 rep point from me.

Oz you definitely did not think the #CruzSexScandel had legs when it came out. Why not just admit it? We're all wrong sometimes. This won't hurt your credibility, this literally means nothing but fun.

Meanwhile, I think MikeCF just found the smoking gun:

   

A tweet at 5:22 AM and stating what mood Cruz is in? What the fuck? How would she know unless they spent the night together? I didn't notice the date tag the first time I saw the tweet. This is extremely damning.

Great video showing how phony Cruz is.

Samseau I just said in my post just above (boldface added):

Quote:When the story came out, I thought that it was extremely implausible based on my view of Cruz's character. He is indeed (as Mike notes above) very obviously not a cunthound or womanizer. He is also an exceptionally focused, disciplined and ambitious pol. Given all that, I thought it was extremely unlikely that he would be dumb enough to risk throwing away his life's work for some strange pussy. I continue to think it somewhat unlikely. I see nothing wrong with thinking this way; we draw conclusions based on character and personality all the time, as well we should.

What else is there to be "admitted"? I stand by my analysis, LOL.

I don't find Carpenter's tweet above damning at all, to be honest. You have to remember that she was Cruz's communications director, and that they planned a gag where he would show the fake "tattoo" for April's Fools Day (April 1 as you see in the tweet). That gag was what she meant by "fun mood". Of course she knew about it ahead of time, being his communications director.

If anything, tweets like that make me thing an affair is less likely. When you're trying to hide something you're very conscious of how anything will sound. This kind of tweet is carefree and does not suggest someone who is hiding something.

Former CIA behavioural analyst looks at Cruz's denial and sees indications of deception: http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/behavior...x-scandal/

Quote:The eyebrow-raising story that appeared earlier this week in the National Enquirer, citing claims that Sen. Ted Cruz had engaged in five extramarital affairs, drew a sharp response from the Republican presidential contender. Sharp as it was, however, it was strikingly weak in terms of denial, and strong in terms of attack. And that combination is a telltale sign of deception that leads us to conclude that this is a matter that warrants further investigation.

The statement that Cruz released on his Facebook page on Friday immediately drew our attention:

“I want to be crystal clear: these attacks are garbage. For Donald J. Trump to enlist his friends at the National Enquirer and his political henchmen to do his bidding shows you that there is no low Donald won’t go. These smears are completely false, they’re offensive to Heidi and me, they’re offensive to our daughters, and they’re offensive to everyone Donald continues to personally attack. Donald Trump’s consistently disgraceful behavior is beneath the office we are seeking and we are not going to follow.”

Subsequently speaking about the matter, Cruz echoed that sentiment, with even more intensity (you can watch below). He said:

“The National Enquirer published a story. It is a story that quoted one source on the record: Roger Stone, Donald Trump’s chief political advisor. Let me be clear, this National Enquirer story is garbage. It is complete and utter lies. It is a tabloid smear, and it is a smear that has come from Donald Trump and his henchmen. It is attacking my family, and what is striking is Donald’s henchman, Roger Stone, had for months been foreshadowing that this attack was coming. It’s not surprising that Donald Trump’s tweet occurs the day before the attack comes out. And I would note that Mr. Stone is a man who has 50 years of dirty tricks behind him. He’s a man for whom a term was coined for copulating with a rodent. Well let me be clear: Donald Trump may be a rat, but I have no desire to copulate with him. And this garbage does not belong in politics. The National Enquirer has endorsed Donald Trump, has said he must be President. And so Donald, when he’s losing, when he’s scared, when Republicans are uniting against him, decides to peddle sleaze and slime. You know, Donald is fond of giving people nicknames. With this pattern, he should not be surprised to see people calling him, ‘Sleazy Donald.’”

We should note that these two statements constitute the only material that we currently have at our disposal to analyze, which is far from ideal. Obviously, the more material available for analysis, the greater our confidence in our findings. With that said, however, we were struck by the volume of deceptive behavior that we identified in these statements.

Behaviorally, when the facts are the ally of an individual, he or she almost always tends to focus on the facts of the matter at hand. In this case, if the key fact was that he had not had these affairs, Cruz would almost certainly have been much more strongly focused on the denial. That is, he very likely would have made a point of explicitly stating something along the lines of, “I did not have these affairs.”

Yet at no point in either statement did Cruz say that. He implied it by saying the allegations are false, and that they’re lies, but behaviorally, such statements are not equivalent to saying he never had the affairs. Even if we were to overlook that fact and consider his statements to be a denial, there is an overwhelmingly higher proportion of attack behavior compared to the effort expended at denial. This type of lopsided attack-to-denial ratio is very consistent with what we have historically seen with deceptive people when allegations are levied against them.

Given the lack of additional information upon which to conduct a more comprehensive behavioral analysis, this is nothing more than our initial opinion and assessment, and we will continue to follow this matter very closely. At the same time, we cannot help but conclude at this point that it’s not looking good for Sen. Cruz.

You'll recall the post I made at the time of the meetup outrage about ANDEMCA: Admit Nothing, Deny Everything, Make Counter-Accusations.

Look again at Cruz's denial - matches it to a T.

I also remember that he ignored a shouted question at the end of his conference that went, "Senator, have you been faithful to your wife?"

If Cruz did have an extramarital affair with Carpenter, then there's no way they can expect it to remain buried for long. It's only a matter of time until someone with proof confirms or refutes the story.

That being said, I think that even if Cruz admits having an affair, he will likely stay in - since if he drops now there is no way to stop Trump from reaching 1,237. At the very least, the Republican establishment will put insane amounts of pressure on him to stay in.

(03-27-2016 07:54 PM)The Lizard of Oz Wrote:  Samseau I just said in my post just above (boldface added):

Quote:When the story came out, I thought that it was extremely implausible based on my view of Cruz's character. He is indeed (as Mike notes above) very obviously not a cunthound or womanizer. He is also an exceptionally focused, disciplined and ambitious pol. Given all that, I thought it was extremely unlikely that he would be dumb enough to risk throwing away his life's work for some strange pussy. I continue to think it somewhat unlikely. I see nothing wrong with thinking this way; we draw conclusions based on character and personality all the time, as well we should.

What else is there to be "admitted"? I stand by my analysis, LOL.

I don't find Carpenter's tweet above damning at all, to be honest. You have to remember that she was Cruz's communications director, and that they planned a gag where he would show the fake "tattoo" for April's Fools Day (April 1 as you see in the tweet). That gag was what she meant by "fun mood". Of course she knew about it ahead of time, being his communications director.

If anything, tweets like that make me thing an affair is less likely. When you're trying to hide something you're very conscious of how anything will sound. This kind of tweet is carefree and does not suggest someone who is hiding something.

Far more plausible is that she was lying, she had no idea what mood he was in but wrote the tweet anyways. However, we know they were sharing the tattoo Cruz showed on TV, which means they were together at some point before she wrote that tweet.

Doesn't matter if she's a comm director. No one needs to be together 4 hours before the TV appearence in order to strategize something that could have been done days before. Why were they together at 4 AM on April 1st 2014?

Cruz isn't a corporation who needs to run operations 24/7 in order to make the bottom line. Cruz is a politician, and he was making a TV appearance in 2014, which wasn't an election year for him as he was elected in 2012.

The most plausible explanation is the simplest one.

If, by some miracle of God, Cruz proves his innocence and sues the National Enquirer for big money, I still won't care because this scandal has provided excellent entertainment in between Arizona and Wisconsin.

Why would they need to be together at 4am? They plan the gag the day before or whenever, she gets up early and tweets that Cruz will be in a "fun mood" and that everyone should watch the show, hoping that her boss gets more views and that this gag humanizes him and makes him more human / more likeable etc. All in a day's work for a pol and his comm director. The tweet was out there in the open for 2 years, no one thought anything of it at the time or since then.

This is all thin gruel and amounts to a whole lot of nothing. Either there will be some real evidence -- video, audio, text, email -- or the story dies. It's blindingly obvious Amanda was and remains in love with the guy; it's unknown whether anything ever happened between them.

For what it's worth, if there is real evidence, I don't think Cruz's campaign survives it, not after all the denials. It's over for him if something real emerges.

If I'm following the timeline right, Cruz was on the tv that morning showing off the tattoo, and the host called him out for not wearing his suit coat. Then in Carpenter's pic in the bathroom when she is showing off her identical tattoo, she's wearing a men's suit coat.



Update: Here's the video of the tv host noticing Ted isn't wearing a jacket:

If that cute little stunt allayed your suspicion, maybe that was the intent. Sometimes the best way to hide something is in plain sight (right there on twitter) or under cover of audacity (April Fools!).

(03-27-2016 08:16 PM)The Lizard of Oz Wrote:  Why would they need to be together at 4am? They plan the gag the day before or whenever, she gets up early and tweets that Cruz will be in a "fun mood" and that everyone should watch the show, hoping that her boss gets more views and that this gag humanizes him and makes him more human / more likeable etc. All in a day's work for a pol and his comm director. The tweet was out there in the open for 2 years, no one thought anything of it at the time or since then.

This is all thin gruel and amounts to a whole lot of nothing. Either there will be some real evidence -- video, audio, text, email -- or the story dies. It's blindingly obvious Amanda was and remains in love with the guy; it's unknown whether anything ever happened between them.

For what it's worth, if there is real evidence, I don't think Cruz's campaign survives it, not after all the denials. It's over for him if something real emerges.

Thin gruel? And the video of them wearing the tattoo also shows she was wearing the jacket. It is nearly INDISPUTABLE they were together before she wrote that tweet.

Let's just put it this way - if anyone had a wife, and she saw these things, you'd bet your ass she'd be accusing you of cheating. This isn't even close to "thin gruel," that is denial on your part. No idea why you have a hard-on for Cruz.

Geraldo Rivera weighs in - doesn't look too good for Cruz!

And a prince is born.

I'm not sure I agree with Lizard of Oz that it's "thin gruel". I think there's something to it.

But I think even if we give him a good-natured ribbing about it, it's very important to have someone like him who's keeping all of us from engaging in group think. It's very important for us to not get so caught up in believing everything good about Trump and everything bad about our opponents, because at that point we've lost a lot of our value as a resource. I appreciate him sticking up for his beliefs in the face of severe criticism. I think it's a big service he's providing.

I still say he's Ted Cruz in disguise, though.

(03-27-2016 08:34 PM)Dusty Wrote:  

And a prince is born.

On Easter! Good omen.

(03-27-2016 08:34 PM)Dusty Wrote:  

And a prince is born.

The baby will have a great family. A good headstart.

It is thin gruel. The tweet is from 2 years ago, Cruz's wife would have seen it the same day and drawn whatever conclusions she did. Same for the matching tattoos and the jacket etc. It was all out in the open. It's not how two people desperately hiding an affair that could sink them would behave.

Again, what is blindingly obvious from every tweet, TV appearance, what have you, is that Amanda had -- and still has -- a huge crush on the guy. Even bigger than mine, if you can believe that . LOL. Whether it was actually ever consummated remains completely unknown, and unless real evidence comes out we may never know.

As far as a lawsuit against NE, I think it would be very difficult to do because of the way the article is structured. As I noted when it just came out, the article never actually claims or even implies that any affairs actually happened. It is structured as a story about "rumors" and about how "dirty tricksters" have collected a dossier that is supposed to show evidence of these affairs. Not a single direct source is quoted that claims any first hand knowledge of an affair actually having taken place. This was very obviously done deliberately to avoid liability. I'm not an expert, but given the structure of the article I feel that a lawsuit would probably just get thrown out.

EDIT: And by the way, even though I've said it a number of times already, I guess it can bear repeating. I'm not "sticking up" for Ted Cruz, or "defending" him, or anything like that. I do find him to be an interesting character, very intelligent, cunning and shrewd. He's an unlikely type to have an affair -- not because he's some pious Christian (I don't buy that for a moment, incidentally) but because he is such a driven, disciplined, and calculated pol and also not exactly the woman-chaser who can't help himself. Not that an affair is impossible, human beings are capable of anything -- but that it's prima facie not likely. That doesn't mean I'm trying to make any kind of case for him etc. Just calling it like I see it.

(03-27-2016 08:38 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(03-27-2016 08:34 PM)Dusty Wrote:  

And a prince is born.

On Easter! Good omen.

Theodore James Kushner, welcome to the world, little buddy.

Your grandpa's gonna do great things. For all of us.

The timing of this I find interesting. The next primary is April 5th, which means another week for this story to flesh out. A week of continual "updates" will ingrain this into the heads of the populace, no matter if it's one infatuated employee or a dozen tranny hookers.

WI has a large number of religious republicans that will really be turned off by the Cuban Mistress Crisis, the vast majority of which will gravitate to Trump.

True or not, I am chuckling. After the shit Cruz has pulled so far during this primary fight, it is glorious to see this dumped on his Grandpa Munster head.

btw-Would bang that Carpenter broad.

There is a little button that says "Report" under each of my posts.

No need to say "Ahem" or otherwise imply something (especially if you think I am "spreading discontent" or "casting doubt").

And AFAIK, you can even be an anonymous whistleblower.

(03-31-2016 10:50 AM)CombatDiet Wrote:  There is a little button that says "Report" under each of my posts.

No need to say "Ahem" or otherwise imply something (especially if you think I am "spreading discontent" or "casting doubt").

And AFAIK, you can even be an anonymous whistleblower.

I'm not "implying" but outright calling you out as a troll you fucking retard.

Well there is a 250 post minimum for this thread so that report function might come in handy...

This thread continues to amaze, as soon as guys see a "gaff" or tiny bump all hell breaks loose. Reminds me of when trump lost Iowa, the number of FML posts was staggering. Lets get some perspective here:

Trump is headed for a massive win in NY and then steamrolling the rest of the north east with NJ a winner take all state. He over-performed in Arizona and lost in the closed mormon caucus of Utah where the entire mormon establishment banded together and swore to john smith to stop trump. What has changed? you see a couple of polls that don't go your way and throw a fit? and NBC poll came out where he is at 49(the highest ever from that pollster), other polls have him tighter in WI and dominating in NY.

Think about whats happened with the rise of alternative media outlets and rise of trump twitter warriors. Look at the growth pattern of guys like Mike C vs the stagnation of losers like Eric Erickson. The establishment media pundits have a platform at least every week(usually on a network) and they can't grow to save their life. Just look at the growth of Lou Dobs when he jumped on the Trump train. Numbers don't lie, there is something big happening here, a complete realignment of the right. Its a major disruption and one which will only get more chaotic in the coming years before the dust finally settles. In the meantime there will be a massive effort to try and hold on to any portion of the status-quo.