(04-04-2016 10:29 AM)H1N1 Wrote: - I suspect Tesla will be the tech leaders in this field to such an extent that the companies you mention find it more profitable to cut a deal with Tesla for their technology than to try to compete. I'd bet my house (which I don't own) that Tesla capture market share for all the stuff that matters in the electric car market.
Except Tesla didn't develop their primary technology - the batteries. All of the stuff they developed on their own, the interior and car hardware, breaks repeatedly. He even jokes in the demo that the doors worked this time. People who own Teslas report the doors breaking, squeaks, leaks, air conditioning problems, etc, so often that Consumer Reports gave it below average ratings for reliability. And it's getting worse, not better. The new cars rolling off the line in 2015 had more problems than the 2014 model.
I like the idea of a battery powered car...sort of. Hell, I contacted a company wanting to invest in their personal electric aircraft! But Tesla needs to get their manufacturing house in order before I'm buying one, especially considering how much they brag about it being simpler than traditional cars. If that's true - and it is - then everything else should be flawless.
Respectfully, there are a lot of assumptions you are making:
Who says the battery tech is their primary technology? If they don't make it, it is by definition not their primary tech. If I build some kind of tech device, do I not make my primary technology if I use an ARM microprocessor to drive it? If the answer is no, yet I make a lot of money and the product is revolutionary, how much does 'primary technology' matter?
The reality is that most successful and innovative companies make use of available technology to deliver something new.
Tesla will 'win' as much as anything because they are the ones taking the risks and making the waves. You don't hear about other companies problems, because noone gives a shit, and consequently they aren't getting the kind of feedback that lets them rapidly optimise a system. Tesla has far more data to work with than any other electric car manufacturer, and they seem to be led by a guy who really knows what he is doing. If that's the case, Tesla will almost certainly win out.
What would say is the technology that other companies would pay for?
I wouldn't pretend to know, I couldn't meaningfully speculate without doing a whole load of research on Tesla that I have no intention of doing. What I can say as someone who runs a technology business himself is that the thing that many of my clients think they are buying is actually far less valuable than certain aspects of the system that they take for granted.
To illustrate, I actually make a product that would be improved noticeably for the end user by a leap forward in battery technology. If a new battery comes along that doubles the life-span of my product, or that can be worn on certain garments without hindering operational effectiveness, then to the end user and the uninitiated it looks superficially like my product relies on 3rd party technology, or that it depends for its cleverness on the achievement of others outside my company. And superficially this is true. However, as the guy who built the system, and who knows how it works, I can see how managing to make a small change which would only marginally impact user experience for the better could open up a world of very serious, ground-breaking possibilities worth staggering amounts of money.
The point is, you see a car, and think it does a less good job than the car you drive at the moment, and that may be true. But Elon Musk, who knows what they are really on to, may simply see the car as a means of refining a particular technology/program/algorithm with far broader and more interesting potential.
I am fairly confident that a tech entrepreneur of E.M.'s standing and ability has not sunk vast amounts of his own wealth into a business that hinges on someone else's battery. You wouldn't expect a sociology graduate from a polytechnic to make that mistake aged 21, why do you assume a 40 something proven rockstar would be so naive? It is the least likely of all explanations that E.M. has blindly sunk his fortune into a doomed project that relies for its primary value on the work of a 3rd party.
(This post was last modified: 04-04-2016 04:59 PM by H1N1.)
04-04-2016 04:58 PM
8ball
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This is a big deal, they already received deposits for 276 000 orders this weekend, keep in mind their total deliveries for last year was 50 000 for all their vehicles.
Mass produced affordable electric cars will be very competitive in any urban/suburban environment. I wonder what apple's goals are, will they start small and produce a niche car or go all out?
(04-04-2016 05:00 PM)8ball Wrote: This is a big deal, they already received deposits for 276 000 orders this weekend, keep in mind their total deliveries for last year was 50 000 for all their vehicles.
Mass produced affordable electric cars will be very competitive in any urban/suburban environment.[b] I wonder what apple's goals are, will they start small and produce a niche car or go all out?[/b]
They have been hiring people from BMW and Audi, they need to go for the affordable market, the 35K price range, BMW 3 series, Tesla Model 3, and so on.
Apple has a trend of making overpriced products, but cars are not cellphones, people last years with a car, people wont be going every year to get a new Apple car, in order to stay relevant they need to do it the same way Tesla does it, over the air software updates.
In order to sell they need to go for the sedan-SUV family type car, something a dad+mom+3kids all under the age of 12 can use and go to do the shopping mall. Not the nice looking but unpractical BMW I8.
08-23-2016 01:56 PM
weambulance
International Playboy
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I will laugh my ass off if Apple makes a car and suckers buy it.
I wonder how much the required Apple products you'll need to use that car will cost? Will trying to use non-Apple accessories and parts brick your car? What little traps will Apple build in to deny warranty repairs? It'll be a hoot to watch all that go down.
Apple's entire philosophy is incompatible with the concept of durable goods. Even their expensive-ass computers and phones are designed for consumption, with maintenance not only given a low priority, but actively discouraged in many cases. That kind of culture tends to pervade a company's entire product line, so I find it hard to believe they'll be able to get their priorities straight when it comes to making a car.
(08-23-2016 02:28 PM)weambulance Wrote: I will laugh my ass off if Apple makes a car and suckers buy it.
I wonder how much the required Apple products you'll need to use that car will cost? Will trying to use non-Apple accessories and parts brick your car? What little traps will Apple build in to deny warranty repairs? It'll be a hoot to watch all that go down.
Apple's entire philosophy is incompatible with the concept of durable goods. Even their expensive-ass computers and phones are designed for consumption, with maintenance not only given a low priority, but actively discouraged in many cases. That kind of culture tends to pervade a company's entire product line, so I find it hard to believe they'll be able to get their priorities straight when it comes to making a car.
Look how you can't do anything on your Iphone or Ipad without going o Itunes first, Apples products have a tendency of not working when something simple goes wrong, in order to get a car approved for roads they will need to deliver something completely reliable, Iphone 4 came out with the problem of the antenna, it was a pain in the ass for people who bought it but is just a phone, you can't have your brand new car stop working 2 days after you buy.
Also, Apple is about releasing products yearly, you can't do that with a car, the Tesla Model S besides the Autopilot and facelift is the same car, the car is 95% the same that came in 2012.
I would not be worried to much about 3rd party products, there are tones of products made by many companies for Apple devices.
08-23-2016 03:45 PM
The following 1 user Likes Latinopan's post:1 user Likes Latinopan's post Handsome Creepy Eel
Tesla is already experiencing myriad quality control issues with the Model X (which is dsigraceful-looking as a 'premium vehicle', imo - a half aborted cyborg egg).
08-23-2016 06:33 PM
RatInTheWoods
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The main challenge of EV is the charging issue, owning an EV when you have your own parking space is good, but for people living in urban area like NYC, many parts of Brooklyn, Bronx, Queens etc the main problem is charging the car while you sleep, in urban areas you park in different place every time, and you can spend hours finding the space after you arrive to your own home, if you can't charge your EV while you sleep then there is not reason to own one.
There are plans to add charging station in urban areas using the the grid already installed used for delivered power to home and light poles, like Norway has.
08-23-2016 08:17 PM
The following 1 user Likes Latinopan's post:1 user Likes Latinopan's post debeguiled
(08-24-2016 08:03 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote: If apple do make a car, it wouldn't surprise me if it was lease only.
That's the direction the market is heading in imho anyway.
Until people can buy long range all electric car for 20K or least which is where most people tend to buy cars then people will only lease them, the market of car sales is stronger on the used ones, Just by looking around I could find this:
This is where most people, especially the not wealthy one buy theirs cars, is going to be a few years before we see Tesla, Apple or any full electric withing that price range.
08-24-2016 10:19 AM
JacksonRev
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The under $20k market doesn't matter. No car company makes used cars.
Tesla just needs to make a car starting close to the average new car price in the US, which is $33,666. Which is why the Tesla Model 3 will start at $35k.
(08-24-2016 12:19 PM)JacksonRev Wrote: Tesla just needs to make a car starting close to the average new car price in the US, which is $33,666. Which is why the Tesla Model 3 will start at $35k.
"From" and "As Show/Equipped" are two vastly different figures. I guarantee this car gets extra pricey once anything of value as added. A BMW 320i starts around 31k and comes with manual seats, Sensatec vinyl upholstery, a goofy and buzzy 4-pot turbo, and no toys.
08-24-2016 12:25 PM
The following 1 user Likes dicknixon72's post:1 user Likes dicknixon72's post Handsome Creepy Eel
DJ-Matt
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I'm never going to spend more than $20k for a new car so they need to bring that price down. I remember you could buy super base level no A/C no power steering toyota trucks and tercels for less than $10k new in the early 90s, whatever happened to that!
Shit I haven't even spent more than $10k on a car in recent memory. Last few were under $2,000
Team visible roots "The Carousel Stops For No Man" - Tuthmosis
(02-11-2019 05:10 PM)Atlanta Man Wrote: I take pussy how it comes -but I do now prefer it shaved low at least-you cannot eat what you cannot see.
(This post was last modified: 08-24-2016 12:38 PM by DJ-Matt.)
08-24-2016 12:37 PM
JacksonRev
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(08-24-2016 12:25 PM)dicknixon72 Wrote: "From" and "As Show/Equipped" are two vastly different figures. I guarantee this car gets extra pricey once anything of value as added. A BMW 320i starts around 31k and comes with manual seats, Sensatec vinyl upholstery, a goofy and buzzy 4-pot turbo, and no toys.
It doesn't matter. The first year of Model 3's are already pre-sold.
The point was that the Model 3 is much closer to the price of the average car than the Model S. Tesla doesn't produce enough to bring the price down more at this time.
The difference in Tesla entering the car market versus Honda/Toyota/Hyundai, is that the latter three were optimizing already proven technologies, so it was most beneficial to start at the bottom and work up.
Tesla is debuting completely new technology, which is a top down process. So as they make money, they can trickle the technology down to lower profit models.
I still might buy a Tesla just for the auto-drive feature for my commute. I buy new cars, because I want to determine the direction of the car industry. And the money I spend is worth it to me. I'll let everyone else try to get a deal on my choices five or ten years down the road.
(This post was last modified: 08-24-2016 02:01 PM by JacksonRev.)
(08-24-2016 12:19 PM)JacksonRev Wrote: The under $20k market doesn't matter. No car company makes used cars.
Tesla just needs to make a car starting close to the average new car price in the US, which is $33,666. Which is why the Tesla Model 3 will start at $35k.
The money being made on cars right now is from maintenance, oil change, engine shakeup, etc, because EVs do not have as many moving parts like gears, EV are a real thing manufacture look before they can go making EVs in high volume.
Also because the EVs like Model S and expected Apple car will feature over the air software update, there is not need for big change in the long run, Tesla introduced the autopilot hardware in 2014, meaning every car after that keeps getting better software without having to install any additional parts or worse, buying a new car.
(08-24-2016 05:19 PM)Latinopan Wrote: Also because the EVs like Model S and expected Apple car will feature over the air software update, there is not need for big change in the long run, Tesla introduced the autopilot hardware in 2014, meaning every car after that keeps getting better software without having to install any additional parts or worse, buying a new car.
(08-24-2016 05:19 PM)Latinopan Wrote: Also because the EVs like Model S and expected Apple car will feature over the air software update, there is not need for big change in the long run, Tesla introduced the autopilot hardware in 2014, meaning every car after that keeps getting better software without having to install any additional parts or worse, buying a new car.
Tesla just launched the P100D with 315 miles, first all electric to go beyond 300 miles on a single charge, I wonder where thing will be in 5 or 7 years.
08-27-2016 05:25 PM
The following 1 user Likes Latinopan's post:1 user Likes Latinopan's post spokepoker
It's not as easy as they make it out to be. These geeks are getting all fizzed up about how they can swerve the car off the road with the click of a mouse.
In reality it takes a long time to crack a specific car, sniff the protocols, figure out what they mean, then figure out how to infiltrate while driving down the road. Most of the time it requires prior access to the target vehicle to install a device.
When you tell the Clintons that it's gonna take 3 months to hack a car, they'll say that's too long and have their target suicide themselves from behind or accidentally drop a dumbbell on their throat within 2 days.
Quote:Tesla is already experiencing myriad quality control issues
Supposedly one caught fire in France recently.
It did and supposedly nobody knows why. There have been several of these accidents, which suggests a design defect. I find it interesting the media isn't up in arms over this they way they were when VW got busted for emissions.
Quote:Tesla is already experiencing myriad quality control issues
Supposedly one caught fire in France recently.
It did and supposedly nobody knows why. There have been several of these accidents, which suggests a design defect. I find it interesting the media isn't up in arms over this they way they were when VW got busted for emissions.
I'm guessing it's because the powerwall firmware was changed because people were complaining about the noise. The cooling system was almost as loud as a garbage disposal in some cases. Tesla claimed the maximum decibels the unit could produce was 40 - which is fairly quiet - yet they made the changes so a problem must have existed. If the firmware turned down the cooling system to reduce noise, the system may have overheated.
Also, Tesla dumped the original models and is only selling the 6.4 version. They claim it's not because demand was off for the original models but who knows.
I wanted to bump this thread. First, I'm not a strong believer in man-made global warming, so I'm not doing this out of ideology.
Just want to show the following videos to people to demonstrate that the economics of renewables is now making sense. I don't know why our forum has to have an instinctive dislike for it just because SJWs are for it. I saw this video and it made me completely rethink my skepticism of Electric Vehicles and renewable energy. If this is the future, then why shouldn't we seize it?
Check out this first video - it looks like the combination of exponentially cheaper battery storage, cheaper electric vehicles, self driving cars, and vastly cheaper solar power will disrupt every aspect of the transportation industry within 10 years. Battery storage is getting much cheaper and by 2020 it will cost just 1.2 dollars per day to have a full day of battery storage in your house.
Now for those who say battery storage is unrealistic, look at this video - someone in the UK, which isn't even that Sun dense, is able to live off the grid for 80+% of energy needs using battery storage.
And an average guy able to do it using the Tesla Powerwall:
It is clear that renewable energy combined with battery storage, without subsidies, is getting cheaper than coal or natural gas. What we really need now is a willingness to build these solar plants and wind farms, as well as government help to build the transmission lines from energy source to population centers.
So many benefits and very little drawbacks. Apparently Elon Musk was part of Trump's meeting with tech executives. I hope Trump realizes that coal is of the past, and natural gas and nuclear simply aren't worth it compared with the low hassle of renewables.
01-14-2017 04:20 AM
The Beast1
Innovative Casanova
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There's nothing renewable or "green" about lithium ion batteries PERIOD. All these battery products do is force the pollution to process them to be in another place.
Frankly, i'd rather have more pollution near my home if it mean a couple hundred of my countrymen had work.
Not to mention the fact that China is the sole producer of the batteries powering this so called "renewable" revolution. You think China's going to play ball with Trump calling them out for poor trade deals?
Elon better be groveling at Trump's feet because if those subsidies disappear his business goes belly up.
Renewables will never supplant traditional energy creation methods.
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2017 04:42 AM by The Beast1.)
01-14-2017 04:37 AM
The following 1 user Likes The Beast1's post:1 user Likes The Beast1's post Captainstabbin
There's nothing renewable or "green" about lithium ion batteries PERIOD.
Not to mention the fact that China is the sole producer of the batteries powering this so called "renewable" revolution. You think China's going to play ball with Trump calling them out for poor trade deals?
Tesla Powerwall will be produced in Nevada. Plus Tesla's lithium ion batteries are recyclable so mining lithium is a one off.
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