Post: #126

The first bailout was purely to transfer Greece's debt from the European banks that held the debt to the ECB, i.e. European Taxpayers.

Greece's problems had the potential to create a Europe wide banking crisis, which despite some anarchists craving, would have utterly brought Europe to its knees without ECB liquidity.

A swindle of the highest order; one that most EU citizens had and still have no idea about.


Despite some intellectual masturbating over the possibility, there is zero chance that Russia, even if it had the money, is going to get involved here. Switching debtors from the EU to Russia isn't a great idea; I'd rather owe money to Mario et al than Mr Putin! Plus, 70% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro.


The fact remains that at the end of the day two economies as different as Greece and Germany cannot exist in currency union. It is impossible. Always has been. Always will be.


I expect the ECB (Germany) to kick the can down the road here again, maybe with a haircut just big enough to both satisfy the Greeks and not send the other PIIGS into revolt; the repayment terms will probably be extended by 50 years or so.


The Greeks have more power here than they realise.


Interesting letter to The German People by Alex:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-29...out-greece

Post: #127

https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=14...iewU#t=204

New Greece Finance Minister interviewed by British Journalist who is trying to pigeon hole him and get him to say what she wants. He doesn't let her. It's clear she wants him to fail as do many outside of Greece. He refuses to go along with her narrative. Μπράβο ρε Γιάννη.

Post: #128

(01-30-2015 08:38 PM)poutsara Wrote:  



https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=14...iewU#t=204

New Greece Finance Minister interviewed by British Journalist who is trying to pigeon hole him and get him to say what she wants. He doesn't let her. It's clear she wants him to fail as do many outside of Greece. He refuses to go along with her narrative. Μπράβο ρε Γιάννη.

This is great video (the link is the one that works).

The Greeks look like they have had enough of austerity, and they are willing to push this to the logical end: a write-off of debt and an end to austerity.

This should be interesting.

Post: #129

What does all of this have to do with us from a pussy standpoint? Do we hope for Greece to go back to the drachma, endure hyperinflation so that we can buy houses in greece for ten cents each and have a poosy paradise by offering food to half starved(thin) greek women?

Starving greek girl datasheet is looming.

Post: #130

^This could have serious implications for the eurozone, and thus for the European economy.

Post: #131

Post: #132

(01-30-2015 08:38 PM)poutsara Wrote:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=14...iewU#t=204

New Greece Finance Minister interviewed by British Journalist who is trying to pigeon hole him and get him to say what she wants. He doesn't let her. It's clear she wants him to fail as do many outside of Greece. He refuses to go along with her narrative. Μπράβο ρε Γιάννη.

A masterclass in frame control.

He does have the advantage of the satellite link so it's harder for her to interrupt, but even in person that calm, amiable but focused storytelling is something I'd like to cultivate more in myself.

Excellent mild digs as well that establish him as the dominant but reasonable one -
"maybe I should have made my remarks in english so that you would not be lost in translation"

"I'd hate myself if I had that kind of attitude, if I were that weak." - Arnold

Post: #133

(01-30-2015 08:38 PM)poutsara Wrote:  



https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=14...iewU#t=204

New Greece Finance Minister interviewed by British Journalist who is trying to pigeon hole him and get him to say what she wants. He doesn't let her. It's clear she wants him to fail as do many outside of Greece. He refuses to go along with her narrative. Μπράβο ρε Γιάννη.

This guy is a boss.

"I was listening to your report, and I have to tell you, I'm a great BBC fan, and I've never heard such an inaccurate report."

Also he clearly is listening to Walt Clyde Fraiser broadcasting Knicks games.

"We don't want to keep extending and pretending."

You can't judge a political movement based on one member shutting down a cunt reporter, but this guy seems alright.

Post: #134

Looks like the anti-austerity mood is spreading:

Post: #135

Steve Keen weighs in on the issue:

http://audioboom.com/boos/2846464-prof-s...-in-greece

His propositions are by far superior to what the current hucksters are doing - has nothing to with socialism - Canada did it in a similar fashion during the 1930s - they essentially sent out money to farmers and small businesses by interest-free money creation (which also many people don't know that Canada had such a monetary system until the 1970s and thus they had extremely low government debt).

Post: #136

Tall order, but what do you guys think the short-term outlook for the Euro/Eurozone is? I'm heavily exposed to how the Euro moves against the Australian dollar in the near future, I'll need to convert a big stack of dollars before July and another sometime in August. If shit hits the fan (like I'm selfishly praying it will) I'm going to enjoy a big increase in my purchasing power. My thinking is things in Europe could either get worse or just stay the same, but it's certainly not getting any better in this timeframe. Thoughts?

Post: #137

(02-05-2015 06:05 AM)Zelcorpion Wrote:  Steve Keen weighs in on the issue:

http://audioboom.com/boos/2846464-prof-s...-in-greece

His propositions are by far superior to what the current hucksters are doing - has nothing to with socialism - Canada did it in a similar fashion during the 1930s - they essentially sent out money to farmers and small by interest-free money creation (which also many people don't know that Canada had such a monetary system until the 1970s and thus they had extremely low government debt).

Thanks for posting this. Keen's assessment of Varoufakis's character is spot on. I was an undergrad at Sydney Uni at the time that he (Varoufakis) was a lecturer there. I never took any of his classes but I had the pleasure of meeting him socially. His razor sharp intellect and personal charisma was apparent in spades. Back then he had a full head of hair, used to lift and had a great physique*. He was a natural alpha and the girls used to swoon. I don't wish to start any rumors, and I certainly don't know the details of his personal life, but in hindsight, game recognized.

*(obligatory "no homo" disclaimer)

Post: #138

Even after three years, this article is still the best summary of the situation and its solution:

Why Germany should leave the Eurozone

Post: #139

(02-05-2015 08:55 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Even after three years, this article is still the best summary of the situation and its solution:

Why Germany should leave the Eurozone

HCE,

Thanks for the article. I agree, Germany should exit the Euro and reintroduce the Deutsch Mark. It will be easy to convince bondholders to convert the bonds from euro-denominated to DM-denominated, thereby assuring a smooth transition. The Germans fondly think of the days of the Deutsch Mark, so it wouldn't be hard to convince them.

How things are going economically now in Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and France foreshadows an open revolt by the populace. I don't think Southern Europeans have the intestinal fortitude to hold out for years until their economies' competitiveness comes back. They possess lower future-time orientation than the Northern Europeans, which on the one hand makes them poor bedfellows in an economic union with the Germans, on the other hand makes them more fun to be around.

I would bet that most Northern European countries (Holland, Finland, Luxemburg, etc.) would want to join Germany when it exits. Perhaps recreate the Hanseatic League, but in lieu of cities, it's a league of nations?

Interesting times.

Post: #140

(02-05-2015 09:21 AM)PUA_Rachacha Wrote:  

(02-05-2015 08:55 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  Even after three years, this article is still the best summary of the situation and its solution:

Why Germany should leave the Eurozone

HCE,

Thanks for the article. I agree, Germany should exit the Euro and reintroduce the Deutsch Mark. It will be easy to convince bondholders to convert the bonds from euro-denominated to DM-denominated, thereby assuring a smooth transition. The Germans fondly think of the days of the Deutsch Mark, so it wouldn't be hard to convince them.

Germany makes a killing having the Euro because it makes its exports much more competitive than they would be under the Deutsche Mark, remember Germany is the 3rd largest exporter in the world. The Euro adds 2% a year to it's GDP growth, which doesn't sound like much at first but is actually huge. Germany benefits more from the Euro than any other member, they get much more back from having it then what they put it in to keep it afloat. Besides, if even Italy or Spain abandoned the Euro the currency would collapse, let alone Germany...

Post: #141

(02-05-2015 06:37 AM)Deluge Wrote:  Tall order, but what do you guys think the short-term outlook for the Euro/Eurozone is? I'm heavily exposed to how the Euro moves against the Australian dollar in the near future, I'll need to convert a big stack of dollars before July and another sometime in August. If shit hits the fan (like I'm selfishly praying it will) I'm going to enjoy a big increase in my purchasing power. My thinking is things in Europe could either get worse or just stay the same, but it's certainly not getting any better in this timeframe. Thoughts?

Two ideas come to mind:

1. Financial markets are weird and irrational. Often, if everyone expects financial Armageddon and there's one, solitary blade of grass left standing, then everyone takes that as Utopia. If the outcome of this is only really, really, really crappy, as opposed to really, really, really, really crappy, then the euro could be up 20% against other major currencies. It's fucking stupid, but you tell me when financial markets have ever made any sense (especially in the short term).

2. Even if the Greek situation were to sort itself out by the time you go travelling, there are a number of other potential minefields to be navigated. The UK has an election in May, and even though it is not in the euro, its election results could still have major ramifications on the euro. As things stand, the status quo is going to be under serious threat there. In all likelihood, for the Tories to govern, they'd have to make a Faustian pact with UKIP which would very likely cause massive gyrations in the market, if not threaten the entire EU and euro. On the other hand, for Labour to govern, they would likely have to make their own Faustian pact with the SNP, and the SNP would almost certainly demand a second referendum on Scottish independence, which they would likely win. If that were to happen, that would probably mean that Labour would not be able to hold onto government, and the Tory-UKIP coalition would end up in power, thus leading to the original problem, plus a massive amount of uncertainty in markets, and even a massive amount of uncertainty once it became evident that Labour would need to make its own Faustian deal long before then. I don't know the full timeline for all of that, but there'd likely be a fair amount of turmoil in May/June. The net beneficiary would almost certainly be non-European currencies, especially the USD.

Further to this, Spain has an election at the end of the year, which might represent Greece Version 2, with attendant market worries a few months out from that. There are several other elections in Europe also.

So, I guess it comes down to which of my two points will carry more weight in the market. You could play it safe and change some money now, and then some more later.

I tend to suspect that any strengthening of the euro in the event of a less than Apocalyptic resolution of the Greek crisis will be wiped away in the lead up to the British general election in May. As such if it were me, I'd follow UKIP (and SNP!) polls and change money either before the general election in the UK, or if I thought UKIP were really going to shake things up, immediately afterwards.

Post: #142

Has anyone here been keeping a close look at things? A killing is being made by shorting the Greek banks by those who are realistic about the situation. Considering the current situation, i'd give the Greeks about a year before an even worse collapse.

Post: #143

The more I read about Yanis Varoufakis, the more I like him. He may be "left-wing", but he's not slavishly devoted to ideology over real life results.

Quote:To me, the answer is clear. Europe’s crisis is far less likely to give birth to a better alternative to capitalism than it is to unleash dangerously regressive forces that have the capacity to cause a humanitarian bloodbath, while extinguishing the hope for any progressive moves for generations to come.

Quote:After I returned to Greece in 2000, I threw my lot in with the future prime minister George Papandreou, hoping to help stem the return to power of a resurgent right wing that wanted to push Greece towards xenophobia both domestically and in its foreign policy. As the whole world now knows, Papandreou’s party not only failed to stem xenophobia but, in the end, presided over the most virulent neoliberal macroeconomic policies that spearheaded the eurozone’s so-called bailouts thus, unwittingly, causing the return of Nazis to the streets of Athens.

Quote:I moved to England to attend university in September 1978, six months or so before Margaret Thatcher’s victory changed Britain forever. Watching the Labour government disintegrate, under the weight of its degenerate social democratic programme, led me to a serious error: to the thought that Thatcher’s victory could be a good thing, delivering to Britain’s working and middle classes the short, sharp shock necessary to reinvigorate progressive politics; to give the left a chance to create a fresh, radical agenda for a new type of effective, progressive politics.

Quote:All that sprang out of Thatcherism were extreme financialisation, the triumph of the shopping mall over the corner store, the fetishisation of housing and Tony Blair.

Quote:Yes, I would love to put forward such a radical agenda. But, no, I am not prepared to commit the same error twice. What good did we achieve in Britain in the early 1980s by promoting an agenda of socialist change that British society scorned while falling headlong into Thatcher’s neoliberal trap? Precisely none. What good will it do today to call for a dismantling of the eurozone, of the European Union itself, when European capitalism is doing its utmost to undermine the eurozone, the European Union, indeed itself?

"I'd hate myself if I had that kind of attitude, if I were that weak." - Arnold

Post: #144

Germany leaving the Euro is equivalent to dropping a nuke on Saudi Arabia. The markets would implode overnight and the economic turmoil would destroy any global recovery. You would essentially see multiple violent conflicts spring up within NATO.

And as for the Greece problem, they need to leave and set an example for their fellow slow working southern Europe bed fellows. You rely on tourism and delicacies. I doubt thousands of people go to northern Europe for nice sunny beaches and fine exotic pieces be they food or fashion items.

I guess if you waft enough cash under a pigs nose it will eat anything.

Post: #145

@Benoit his comments display the opposite of what you think it does, because he's a Socialist. His rhetoric is 100% in line with the typical Socialist thinking: that social democracy is reformist and doomed to fail, and will only lead to neoliberalism and more capitalism, so therefore we need a socialist revolution and a full socialization of the means of production.

Post: #146

(02-19-2015 06:47 AM)Deluge Wrote:  @Benoit his comments display the opposite of what you think it does, because he's a Socialist. His rhetoric is 100% in line with the typical Socialist thinking: that social democracy is reformist and doomed to fail, and will only lead to neoliberalism and more capitalism, so therefore we need a socialist revolution and a full socialization of the means of production.

I agree with what you're saying, but unlike the vast majority of socialist-academics, he's held down real jobs and not gone straight from marxist education into lefty politics without ever experiencing the real world as an adult.

I still remain hopeful, and in the worst case we will have Greece as an example of a 'modern socialist country' whose failure will be another nail in the coffin of applied Marxism.

"I'd hate myself if I had that kind of attitude, if I were that weak." - Arnold

Post: #147

Bill Still called out how things will end up - the so-called communists are making some improved deals and the thing goes back to the old crap.





The Euro is here to stay as it is to be an example for other regions to follow in the future.

Steve Keen has also weighed in on the issue - couple his proposals with Canada's 1930s interest free sovereign money creation and you have the perfect way to leave the crisis behind - of course nothing of that sort will be happening:

Post: #148

And the can gets kicked down the road again...quel surprise

Post: #149

As Syriza betrays their people, the average Greek who wants out of the EU becomes more extreme and will only see Golden Dawn as the only nationalistic answer.

Post: #150

(02-22-2015 07:22 PM)Samseau Wrote:  As Syriza betrays their people, the average Greek who wants out of the EU becomes more extreme and will only see Golden Dawn as the only nationalistic answer.

It already has sold out the Greek people - never trust the rhetoric:

http://www.voltairenet.org/article186806.html

Quote:As Syriza moved toward electoral victory in 2015, it began to shed its original program of radical structural changes (socialism) and adopt measures aimed at accommodating Greek business interests. Tsipras talked about “negotiating an agreement” within the framework of the German dominated European Union. Tsipras and his Finance Minister proposed to re-negotiate the debt, the obligation to pay and 70% of the “reforms”! When an agreement was signed they totally capitulated!

Quote:The “bail out” agreement will be described by Tsipras-Vardoulakis as ‘new’ and “different’ from the past or as a ‘temporary’ retreat. The Germans may ‘allow’ Greece to lower its primary budget surplus from 4.5 to 3.5 percent ‘next year’ – but it will still reduce the funds for economic stimulus and “postpone” raises in pensions, minimum wages etc.

Privatization and other regressive reforms will not be terminated, they will be “renegotiated”. The state will retain a minority “share”.

Plutocrats will be asked to pay some added taxes but not the billions of taxes evaded over the past decades.

Nor will the PASOK – New Democracy kleptocratic operatives be prosecuted for pillage and theft.

Syriza’s compromises demonstrate that the looney right’s (The Economist, Financial Times, NY Times, etc.) characterization of Syriza as the “hard left” or the ultra-left have no basis in reality. For the Greek electorate’s “hope for the future” could turn to anger in the present. Only mass pressure from below can reverse Syriza’s capitulation and Finance Minister Vardoulakis unsavory compromises. Since he lacks any mass base in the party, Tsipras can easily dismiss him, for signing off on “compromise” which sacrifices the basic interests of the people.

There is no voting yourself out of a sink-hole. The people do not understand that Marxists are essentially a different part of totalitarian control. The funny thing about the previous Communist regimes is that they left usury intact, the central banks were similarly to the Western powers and the banks did business as usual - the entire economy was just x-times less effective.

My estimation is that that it will be made out as some kind of victory, but the Greek people will be clobbered. Austerity is coming for the entire EU as well as the US.