Post: #51

(01-04-2015 04:10 AM)Switch Wrote:  I'm really young and looking to start investing in stocks. Right now I'm thinking 40-50% into Vanguard S&P, 30% into blue-chip companies, and 20% into companies that I have a good hunch about. I only have about $1000 to invest, should I be more risky? I don't have much to lose.

What is the best discount broker for me to use? Right now Tradeking seems like the best option.

Save your cash for now. One wrong trade and you are wiped out.

Save up more money. You have the rest of your life to invest

Post: #52

(01-04-2015 04:10 AM)Switch Wrote:  I'm really young and looking to start investing in stocks. Right now I'm thinking 40-50% into Vanguard S&P, 30% into blue-chip companies, and 20% into companies that I have a good hunch about. I only have about $1000 to invest, should I be more risky? I don't have much to lose.

What is the best discount broker for me to use? Right now Tradeking seems like the best option.

Vanguard is the best broker.

Don't bother with individual stocks.

Here are your investment choices. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lazy_portfolios

Low-cost funds and asset allocation, that's all there is to it.

Don't pay anybody more than 0.5-0.6% in management fees. Aim for 0.05%.

Set it and forget it. Dollar cost average, rebalance once a year.

Don't try to time the market or make sudden moves. You have many years before you start withdrawing money. Even if the stock prices drop, they will most likely recover by the time you retire and start withdrawals.

I wish I knew that years ago. I would be much closer to financial independence by now.

Post: #53

For the rest of you gamblers out there end of january is typically a great time to be long Crude futures(CL) or Gasonline (RB). There are mini contracts in crude and gasoline if you dont want to buy a full size contract which will run you about $7000. Mini contracts are still around the $2500-$3000 mark depending on volatility

Heading into the spring even in a down year like this, typically CL and RB will climb into March or April. It is almost like clockwork that this trade will work out in your favor

you could also buy the ETF USO or use options on the ETF. I like futures though for the leverage. Be sure to use stops as futures can move quickly and you can lose money quickly. The good thing is the contracts are highly liquid and you can get in and out of these things in an instant

Post: #54

(01-05-2015 10:05 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  For the rest of you gamblers out there end of january is typically a great time to be long Crude futures(CL) or Gasonline (RB). There are mini contracts in crude and gasoline if you dont want to buy a full size contract which will run you about $7000. Mini contracts are still around the $2500-$3000 mark depending on volatility

Heading into the spring even in a down year like this, typically CL and RB will climb into March or April. It is almost like clockwork that this trade will work out in your favor

you could also buy the ETF USO or use options on the ETF. I like futures though for the leverage. Be sure to use stops as futures can move quickly and you can lose money quickly. The good thing is the contracts are highly liquid and you can get in and out of these things in an instant

No offense, but is this a joke? Crude just dropped below $50 the lowest its been for a decade or somewhere thereabouts & historically oil has already made good progress on its ascent for wintertime by early January. Yes crude will revert to the mean, but leverage on something as volatile as crude right now? That's a helluva lot of risk appetite.

Post: #55

So what is the smart play if you have USD sitting around? More for my parents who might want to take a risk, nothing where they would lose more than just the capital they invest.

Or is it a sit and wait situation? Curious what the pros think.

And do any of you ever see the Euro/USD rate ever reaching 1 to 1?

Post: #56

(01-05-2015 10:16 PM)monster Wrote:  

(01-05-2015 10:05 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  For the rest of you gamblers out there end of january is typically a great time to be long Crude futures(CL) or Gasonline (RB). There are mini contracts in crude and gasoline if you dont want to buy a full size contract which will run you about $7000. Mini contracts are still around the $2500-$3000 mark depending on volatility

Heading into the spring even in a down year like this, typically CL and RB will climb into March or April. It is almost like clockwork that this trade will work out in your favor

you could also buy the ETF USO or use options on the ETF. I like futures though for the leverage. Be sure to use stops as futures can move quickly and you can lose money quickly. The good thing is the contracts are highly liquid and you can get in and out of these things in an instant

No offense, but is this a joke? Crude just dropped below $50 the lowest its been for a decade or somewhere thereabouts & historically oil has already made good progress on its ascent for wintertime by early January. Yes crude will revert to the mean, but leverage on something as volatile as crude right now? That's a helluva lot of risk appetite.

History says you are dead wrong. the chart below will back up my claim.

Historically oil and gas rise in the spring in anticipation of the summer driving. Not at the end of the year. In fact historically oil trades down to flat at the end of the year.

Secondly oil was lower than we are now in 2009. And guess what happened? It bottomed in January and then again 2 nd week of February and then zoomed way up well into the late spring.

The chart below shows that for the last 15 year oil has gone up from January/early february into the spring. It has happened 14 of that last 15 years and that includes one financial crisis and one tech bubble.

Post: #57

   

Post: #58

(01-05-2015 10:49 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  So what is the smart play if you have USD sitting around? More for my parents who might want to take a risk, nothing where they would lose more than just the capital they invest.

Or is it a sit and wait situation? Curious what the pros think.

And do any of you ever see the Euro/USD rate ever reaching 1 to 1?

I actually went balls deep last night on the EUR/USD. I am long at 1.1925.
I also went long the NZD/USD and AUD/USD. Shorted USD/CAD as well last night. So far they are comfortable in the money and i have decent profits so far.

Although I plan on getting out of the NZD and AUD and cover the USD short by the end of the week. The EUR/USD i think will work higher for the rest of the month. I think at this point if the ECB launches QE it is mostly priced in and there should be some decent upside until the next leg down begins.

I think your basic assumption might be right in the future. I could see them trading at par in the next year or 2. I guess we will just wait and see what companies/countries blow up this year.

Post: #59

I have a general stock market question for the board.

Is there some sort of market ticker online where you can track what the big investment firms or conglomerates are buying? For example, a place where you could see something like "Berkshire Hathaway buys XX shares of XX company?"

This sort of thing sometimes makes the news days after the big purchases, but I'm wondering if there's a real time way to see it -- and/or if Wall St. fund managers can see something like this.

(PS: Just for the record, I am not looking to track individual stocks. I already do that via Yahoo and Marketwatch. I'm looking, instead, to see what others buy -- sort of "eavesdropping on stocks.")

Post: #60

@days of broken arrows- try gurufocus.com

Post: #61

(01-06-2015 08:28 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  I have a general stock market question for the board.

Is there some sort of market ticker online where you can track what the big investment firms or conglomerates are buying? For example, a place where you could see something like "Berkshire Hathaway buys XX shares of XX company?"

This sort of thing sometimes makes the news days after the big purchases, but I'm wondering if there's a real time way to see it -- and/or if Wall St. fund managers can see something like this.

(PS: Just for the record, I am not looking to track individual stocks. I already do that via Yahoo and Marketwatch. I'm looking, instead, to see what others buy -- sort of "eavesdropping on stocks.")

In a word... No.... the behemoths have a hard time hiding their trades as it is and have to use things like dark pools to do so where over the past few years they are the victims of HFT.

Now there is a form called a 13F that institutional investors must fill out quarterly

13f definition is: A filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), also known as the Information Required of Institutional Investment Managers Form. It is a quarterly filing required of institutional investment managers with over $100 million in qualifying assets. Companies required to file SEC Form 13-F may include insurance companies, banks, pension funds, investment advisers and broker-dealers. This form, which must be filed within 45 days of the end of each quarter, contains information about the investment manager and potentially a list of their recent investment holdings.

Now remember guys like Madoff filled these things out so they might not always be telling the truth.

YOu could also follow twitter... A lot of guys dont tell what they are doing before they do it but they will tweet something out after they have done it. That will probably give you an idea of what money manager is buying what.

And finally there is technical analysis tools that dont tell you who is buying a stock but it will show you if the stock is being heavily accumulated or being sold. Most charting services provide them. Usually under the heading accumulation/distribution

If you are trading futures there is a report that comes out weekly called the COT report. IN it will tell you the who is buying or selling what... it doesnt give you exact names but tells you if it is funds speculating, commercial hedgers or producers.... it also shows you open interest so you can tell if volume is rising... It can show extreme positions as well.

Post: #62

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/uso

considering going big on USO......looking to double my money in a year.

Post: #63

(01-07-2015 03:10 AM)WEDO Wrote:  http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/uso

considering going big on USO......looking to double my money in a year.

Is there some news about this stock that's influenced your decision?

I ask because Marketwatch doesn't give a PE ratio. Nor is there a target price under "analyst estimates." Also, Benzinga doesn't list any ratings. Those are some criteria I use to pick stocks. There's also no dividend -- I also like there to be some dividend, which I've found can serve as a safety net in case the stock goes wrong.

Post: #64

(01-07-2015 03:43 AM)Days of Broken Arrows Wrote:  

(01-07-2015 03:10 AM)WEDO Wrote:  http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/uso

considering going big on USO......looking to double my money in a year.

Is there some news about this stock that's influenced your decision?

I ask because Marketwatch doesn't give a PE ratio. Nor is there a target price under "analyst estimates." Also, Benzinga doesn't list any ratings. Those are some criteria I use to pick stocks. There's also no dividend -- I also like there to be some dividend, which I've found can serve as a safety net in case the stock goes wrong.

It's an ETF that follows the price of oil. The stock price moves with the price of oil.

Post: #65

im think about using selling options on USO

Post: #66

(01-07-2015 03:10 AM)WEDO Wrote:  http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/uso

considering going big on USO......looking to double my money in a year.

Yeah, oil could go back up to 100 in a year. Or it could go to 40 (or lower) and stay there for a considerable period of time.

Personally, I think the latter is more likely.

(01-07-2015 08:03 AM)elabayarde Wrote:  im think about using selling options on USO

"Selling options" is ambiguous. What do you mean?

Post: #67

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2801425-...nt-not-uso

It's an article on why USO is not a good option considering roll over costs and provides other hints if you want to cash on the oil drop.

Post: #68

(01-05-2015 11:11 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  /thread-43531-...#pid923425

Nice chart. but ultimately useless. there hasnt been an *oil situation* like this since the 1970s/80s.

you are showing chart going back 15 years: 2000 to 2015. That is too short a time to reach any solid conclusion on anything. Your chart doesnt even cover 1980s to 1990s oil crisis.

the fundamental reality is far more serious. and it will laugh in the face of your pretty chart. We won't start to know anything until the close to the next OPEC meeting this year.

Another thing, EUROPE is shit. the greek situation is worsening. Germany/France economy is taking a beating. Even UK. we are not even discussing the situation with russia. and you are recommending buying the EURO? You claimed you went long at 1.1925.. it has since dropped to 1.1786 ... 136 pips drop. Expecting monthly technical levels to hold as support in these scenario is a very dangerous, if not, foolish plan.

The only beacon of economic prosperity is USA/USD.... for now... the USD is also safe haven. USD will continue to crush until (a) some form of risk appetite comes into the market(risk on/ risk off), which will compel investors/speculators to short the USD (b) The lowering energy prices causes massive credit spreads widening, which significantly affect overexposed Banks with investment in the energy sectors. When the Banks are fucked, the economy is fucked.

Even these are not certain, because USD is the strongest; and any increasing FED rates on USD will just make USD more attractive for carry-trades, thereby nullifying the effect of *risk on* trades. I will be long the USD for a long, long, long time against the negative rate EURO: for fundamental reasons and carry trade reasons.

Lowering energy prices mean cheaper energy. Energy drives the world. The cheaper the energy, the more it can cut down the cost of business expansion. The only sector that will suffer are the oil sector.

.

Post: #69

(01-07-2015 10:11 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  http://seekingalpha.com/article/2801425-...nt-not-uso

It's an article on why USO is not a good option considering roll over costs and provides other hints if you want to cash on the oil drop.

USO may not give you as much bang for your buck holding long.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherh...me-to-buy/

The three stocks in this article may be a better bet.

Post: #70

ETFs and Leveraged ETFs are fine in the short term... I wouldnt hold them any longer than a couple months.

Post: #71

(01-07-2015 10:36 PM)Home Depot Wrote:  

(01-05-2015 11:11 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  /thread-43531-...#pid923425

Nice chart. but ultimately useless. there hasnt been an *oil situation* like this since the 1970s/80s.

you are showing chart going back 15 years: 2000 to 2015. That is too short a time to reach any solid conclusion on anything. Your chart doesnt even cover 1980s to 1990s oil crisis.

the fundamental reality is far more serious. and it will laugh in the face of your pretty chart. We won't start to know anything until the close to the next OPEC meeting this year.

Another thing, EUROPE is shit. the greek situation is worsening. Germany/France economy is taking a beating. Even UK. we are not even discussing the situation with russia. and you are recommending buying the EURO? You claimed you went long at 1.1925.. it has since dropped to 1.1786 ... 136 pips drop. Expecting monthly technical levels to hold as support in these scenario is a very dangerous, if not, foolish plan.

The only beacon of economic prosperity is USA/USD.... for now... the USD is also safe haven. USD will continue to crush until (a) some form of risk appetite comes into the market(risk on/ risk off), which will compel investors/speculators to short the USD (b) The lowering energy prices causes massive credit spreads widening, which significantly affect overexposed Banks with investment in the energy sectors. When the Banks are fucked, the economy is fucked.

Even these are not certain, because USD is the strongest; and any increasing FED rates on USD will just make USD more attractive for carry-trades, thereby nullifying the effect of *risk on* trades. I will be long the USD for a long, long, long time against the negative rate EURO: for fundamental reasons and carry trade reasons.

Lowering energy prices mean cheaper energy. Energy drives the world. The cheaper the energy, the more it can cut down the cost of business expansion. The only sector that will suffer are the oil sector.

.

I may have been stopped out of my EUR.USD but since Monday my total gain in pips is 690 as i type this. If you know anything about currency trading and leverage I have made most peoples salary for the first 3 or 4 months of the year. All in 3 days. Although I havent cashed out yet so we will see.

As for your laughing at a 15 year chart, I guess we will see where oil goes this year. I will post on here 2 minutes after I initiate my longs in CL and RB if the setup arises. But lets not forget how wild the last 15 years have been. 2 gigantic bubbles and numerous wars started by the US in oil rich nations. Not to mention the complete economic collapse of an energy giant in Venezuela. And through all of that the correlation of a pop in the price of oil/gas has persisted.

Feel free to post how exactly you will be long the USD in the coming months and years. I would like to see how you will make money on your analysis. Also you should do the math on a CL or RB on what just a small $3.00 move in the price of CL does for your brokerage account.

Post: #72

Some of the overall forecasts presented here are, quite frankly, at an amateur level. For literally dozens of reasons the Dollar is extremely bullish for most of 2015. The best analysis on this page (haven't had time to read it all) is what Home Depot posted but even his is only a partial look at the market is, quite literally, looking at only half the picture.

So far the best, professional level economic forecasts can be found from Princeton Economics intl. I suggest by looking up the founder's professional writings and blogs(found at: http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_...cs_blog/). Also learn how to go use the global market watch posted over at http://princetoneconomicsintl.com . It requires a signup to log in to but for the moment it's a free service.

Post: #73

(12-25-2014 08:04 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  

(12-24-2014 11:37 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  

(12-24-2014 07:44 PM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  

(12-23-2014 01:13 AM)Peregrine Wrote:  I'm somewhat curious as to which parts you disagree with.

Pretty much all the doom and gloom shit. The got the MSBs right but apart from there it's no different than a financial Gawker with keyboard jockeys.

In other news, those chevron stocks were a good bet. Along with XOM, BP, and Shell. From 81 to 93 in 8 days!

You think it's going to be smooth sailing from now 'til eternity? I'm not saying the world's fucked, buy gold and guns and find a bunker. I'm a young guy so I'm sure I'll live to see some great times backed by a fundamentally strong economy (not necessarily in America). But some serious shit is due to go down in the near future (within five years, 10 max). Those who aren't prepared will be in for a lot of pain.

Suit yourself. We'll see who's right one way or another. Hopefully I'm wrong (even though I personally gain in more ways than one if things go sour).

You're going to say the same thing in 10 years. People have said the same thing for decades.

Sure, we might experience what happen in 08-09 one more time in our lifetimes, but not some Mad Max shit.

He's more correct than you think but for completely the wrong reasons. The simplest way that I can summarize why is that 2014 has seen extremely high volatility in most equity markets, followed by a decline into the early part of 2015. This is driving many institutional investors into the bond markets. For that and (as always) literally a dozen other reasons there is a high risk of a bond bubble and subsequent burst in late 2015.

That's MUCH worse than a stock market crash. Most of the financial markets (about 3 times as much) is in fixed income securities rather than equity securities. Do some research, and tell me when the last bond market crash occurred if you want to understand why the prospect is so scary.

Post: #74

If bond markets crash, where will the investors flee?

Clearly Western economies are operating below their potential output levels, so why aren't new investments, infrastructure say, picking up the slack? People are always talking about the need for infrastructure investment in the US. There is literally hordes of cash you could put into that stuff.

A reasonably senior friend in a markets division was explaining that regulatory uncertainty is convincing banks and firms to hold onto more liquid assets to meet future requirements. Again... once again... the politicians are the ROOT of the problem, not the solution.

Post: #75

You are referring to the spread between the FED funds rate and 10 years bond interest rates. 0% vs 2.5%; and how that differential will manifest itself in bond asset devaluation when Yellen starts raising interest rates.

Expected Fed fund rake hike target for 2015 is 1.00%, for 2016 is 2.25%... and long term, they want to hit 4% for the FED Fund rate. Which means a 10 year bond interest rate increase from 2.5% to 3.50%(for 2015) to 4.75%(for 2016).... and when the fed fund target of 4% is eventually hit, this will result in 10 year bond interest rate of 6.50%.
[This is also why those on this thread recommending buying current CD rates are mistaken. The interest rate is designed to go higher starting from 2015, why then would you want to be locked into a 5 to 10 year CD yielding shit like 2% currently? why not wait 2 to 4 years in? say in 2017/2018?]

Perhaps, this paint a clearer picture.




The negative to this is that, the movement of 10 year bond interest rates from 2.5% to 6% is going to result in massive loss of asset value for the current bond holders(not future bond holders). It has an inverse relationship. Rate goes up, price of asset goes down. A lot of investors hold these because of the incessant financing at low rates in an attempt to re-inflate the housing market and keep deflation at bay.

All these acts by the FED and the BOJ are attempts to prevent deflation and increase inflation targets. BOJ is aiming for an inflation target of 2%. Abenomics of Japan has turned the BOJ into one of the biggest bond asset management institution in history. Creating a massive bond bubble. How will BOJ extricate themselves from this is beyond me.

Also, the lowering oil prices will apply some deflationary pressures on prices....

But overall, your best bet is long USD as much as you can, any bounce in the EUR/USD at monthly chart levels are opportunities to short EUR with more USD. Every break of monthly levels in EURUSD, USD/CHF, USD/HUF, USD/PLN, USD/CZK, USD/SEK, USD/DKK, USD/TRY are good opportunities to short them all using the USD. It is open season on europe's ass.

And no, i dont think OIL companies, especially, oil exploration companies are a good buys at these levels, regardless of how *cheap* they look. This oil scenario hasn't happen before since 1970s/1980s. In fact, i wont even consider buying anything related to oil until mid-2015 or much later. I can wait. Patience is a virtue in the financial market. Remember, a stock is never too low to keep falling... and the market can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

I will not touch leverage ETFs with a 10 feet pole because of their rebalancing. I can get into some ETFs, but here is the caveat emptor: the bond market scenario that i described above will affect even the ETFs(especially, leverage ETFs).
.