Post: #251

(07-31-2015 12:53 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  I met with my retired Hedge fund Guy for cigars and baseball and markets yesterday - he charted the super cycles and cycles of the market for the past 25 years and he sees a major correction on or about mid September and is focused on S&P futures one month Options since with the slow summer volumes the one week options have not been worth the effort.

He also has been seeing a narrowing triangle pattern showing tightening trading ranges on the S&P Futures through August leading up to mid September super cycle correction of 58%... No I did not misstype - repeat a 58% correction mid September 2015 as he said like clockwork.

So sage advice here would be to keep your powder dry now and not try to catch any falling knives and than back up the truck after this correction er ah um incompetent Obamunists induced CRASH.

IMHO this is utter bullshit. I would say the chances of a 58% correction mid September is less than 1%.

Lets check back in 6 weeks and see where the market is at. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see a 6-12% pullback before the end of 2015.

Post: #252

Thanks to DVY, I've been looking at Genworth GNW. I think I'll slide in for a few shares on Monday before earnings are reported. I think it is a solid long term play, so I'm hopeful that earnings miss by a few cents and we break through lower so I can accumulate shares over a quarter or two.

Post: #253

Anyone subscribe to any thinkorswim addon's ? http://www.thinkscripter.com is one. Ive used some pay services in the past (daytradingrockstar, profitly, traderstoolbox) and all using RSI indicators, Would like to add a study which can confirm the movement. Tied of losing money

Post: #254

(07-31-2015 12:53 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  So sage advice here would be to keep your powder dry now and not try to catch any falling knives and than back up the truck after this correction er ah um incompetent Obamunists induced CRASH.

Agreed big on this. I like miners, but I think they can go lower, like some oil companies will. I saw too many people want to buy XOM and others after the first fall and now those companies are lower. My hope is that this commodity bear market sticks around for a few years to flush out all the over-indebted companies, push stock prices down on the good companies (panic selling), reduce commodity prices (like gold!), and finally hit that rock bottom because it's a saver's heaven then.

Post: #255

(08-02-2015 04:10 PM)SunW Wrote:  

(07-31-2015 12:53 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  So sage advice here would be to keep your powder dry now and not try to catch any falling knives and than back up the truck after this correction er ah um incompetent Obamunists induced CRASH.

Agreed big on this. I like miners, but I think they can go lower, like some oil companies will. I saw too many people want to buy XOM and others after the first fall and now those companies are lower. My hope is that this commodity bear market sticks around for a few years to flush out all the over-indebted companies, push stock prices down on the good companies (panic selling), reduce commodity prices (like gold!), and finally hit that rock bottom because it's a saver's heaven then.

I think commodities will do bad because it is depending too much on China and now China is in big trouble with their economic model.

Post: #256

(07-31-2015 01:06 PM)iknowexactly Wrote:  

(07-31-2015 12:24 PM)lavidaloca Wrote:  The one company I'm curious about is Tesla. I have friends who hype it up as a must buy but it seems extremely expensive to me. Anyone got any opinions / positions on Tesla?

I think there are lower risks as evryone is looking at ratios of gainers to losers and the high SP etc now are very "thin" meaning very few stocks gain but the right ones to keep the indexes up, meanwhile big money is getting out of everything else.

Tesla's current PE ratio is zero and forward PE is 87.

I think they're called "momo" stocks, they're going up because they're going up.

Apple's PE is about 14. I looked up Tesla's PE by asking Siri "What is tesla's price to earning ratio?" I own an iphone, a macbook pro, a ipad retina mini. I don't own a tesla and probably never will, not because it's not nice but because it's freaking expensive and a $3000 used Toyota can do most of the same things. It's a premium item from what I've heard, lovely car.

Zero is bad I think, what happens when everything goes down and people flee to safety?

PE doesn't really mean anything. Amazon was at 334 a share with a PE of 511. Amazon is now at 536 a share.

Post: #257

(08-02-2015 04:10 PM)SunW Wrote:  Agreed big on this. I like miners, but I think they can go lower, like some oil companies will. I saw too many people want to buy XOM and others after the first fall and now those companies are lower. My hope is that this commodity bear market sticks around for a few years to flush out all the over-indebted companies, push stock prices down on the good companies (panic selling), reduce commodity prices (like gold!), and finally hit that rock bottom because it's a saver's heaven then.

Calling a bottom or top in commodity or stock prices is impossible; if you do it, it's pure luck. It's possible to have an idea of whether prices are high or low, but not where they will go from there.

Post: #258

CapEx is coming down so the oversupply of commodities has to slow. Inflation adjusted oil prices are basically at all time lows. I don't think itll drop much below 40/barrel. Even @ 40, there are still companies that are profitable.

What is more interesting is the shale gas play and how that will effect the energy complex when LNG exports go world-wide.

Or what the long-term effects of fracking will be if we bring that technology abroad

Post: #259

Going to be jumping into either HBI or Gildan following the drop in the two companies in the past week, might lean more towards Gildan since its listed on the home market exchange and should be able to take advantage of the higher us dollar.

FB as well will be bought soon, I think there's potential in Instagram, and Facebook should continue growing their mobile ad flow.

Post: #260

(08-03-2015 08:27 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  Going to be jumping into either HBI or Gildan following the drop in the two companies in the past week, might lean more towards Gildan since its listed on the home market exchange and should be able to take advantage of the higher us dollar.

FB as well will be bought soon, I think there's potential in Instagram, and Facebook should continue growing their mobile ad flow.

The key is the 70 billions in video advertising money that is being shifted from traditional broadcaster to Facebook, youtube, and instagram. GOOGL and FB are well positioned to get advertisers money in this respect.

Post: #261

Energy stocks are starting to look interesting. I just brought some Chesapeake Energy (CHK) at $7.16

Post: #262

Goodluck Steve!

I'm schooling oil bulls right now. I love how quick they were to think prices were going to rise and ... nope. We'll see if the Fed really does raise rates in September and, if so, the commodity carnage might get even worse. All good stuff: flush out these feckless companies and let's see the winners.

Post: #263

Any of you on Ditto trade or something similar?

Post: #264

I'm out of this market. Things feel weird right now, just like the feelings I had in 2007. I might do a few options here and there, but I'm not buying anything for a while.

Post: #265

Bought Netflix back September of last year, now my RoR is 150%. Tempted to buy more, I see growth in this stock as they continue to expand globally.

Post: #266

(08-02-2015 05:54 AM)Steve9 Wrote:  

(07-31-2015 12:53 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  I met with my retired Hedge fund Guy for cigars and baseball and markets yesterday - he charted the super cycles and cycles of the market for the past 25 years and he sees a major correction on or about mid September and is focused on S&P futures one month Options since with the slow summer volumes the one week options have not been worth the effort.

He also has been seeing a narrowing triangle pattern showing tightening trading ranges on the S&P Futures through August leading up to mid September super cycle correction of 58%... No I did not misstype - repeat a 58% correction mid September 2015 as he said like clockwork.

So sage advice here would be to keep your powder dry now and not try to catch any falling knives and than back up the truck after this correction er ah um incompetent Obamunists induced CRASH.

IMHO this is utter bullshit. I would say the chances of a 58% correction mid September is less than 1%.

Lets check back in 6 weeks and see where the market is at. However, it wouldn't surprise me to see a 6-12% pullback before the end of 2015.

Considering the nasty harsh response I will keep the rest of my trades to myself... oh yeah the Private Equity guy who warned me to keep my powder dry is worth over $20 Million USD... has three offshore IBCs - its called smart money for a reason.

Post: #267

It does not matter. You may claim he is worth 10 billion USD with 4 phDs from Harvard and MIT it will still not matter. September is almost upon us. We will see if what you predicted come true or not, that is the ultimate test.

(08-06-2015 09:57 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:  Considering the nasty harsh response I will keep the rest of my trades to myself... oh yeah the Private Equity guy who warned me to keep my powder dry is worth over $20 Million USD... has three offshore IBCs - its called smart money for a reason.

Post: #268

I'll put money on Deepdiver's call. 1 to 100 odds (I'm using Steve9's percentage) on the S&P 500 down 50% by Oct 31, 2015, for any amount. Anything over 1k will be held in escrow.

I'm serious.

Post: #269

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-dis...00901.html

Stocks are a 'disaster waiting to happen': Stockman
CNBC By Amanda Diaz
5 hours ago

David Stockman has long warned that the stock market is on the verge of a massive collapse, and the recent price action has him even more convinced than ever that the bottom is about to fall out.

"I think it's pretty obvious that the top is in," the former Ronald Reagan OMB director said Thursday on CNBC's " Futures Now ." The S&P 500 (INDEX: .SPX) has traded in a historically narrow range for the better part of 2015, having moved just 1 percent higher year to date. "It's just waiting for the knee-jerk bulls, robo traders and dip buyers to finally capitulate."

Stockman, whose past claims have yet to come to fruition, still believes that the excessive monetary policy from central banks around the world has created a "debt supernova," and all the signs point to "the end of the central bank enabled bubble," which could cause a worldwide recession.

Read More Dow posts 6-day losing streak

"The larger picture has nothing to do with the jobs report [Friday] or even the September decision by the Fed," said Stockman. "It has to do with the the fact that the world economy, including the U.S., is heading into what is clearly going to be an epochal deflation to the likes of what we have never experienced in modern time."

According to Stockman, it's only a matter of time before the collapse in China (Shanghai Stock Exchange: .SSEC) trickles down to other markets. "The whole global economy since 2008 has been driven forward by this massive investment and construction and borrowing spree in China," said Stockman. "The point that I'm making is that it's over."

For Stockman, there's no reversing the artificially inflated bubbles created by the Federal Reserve . "I think what we are seeing is the beginning evidence that the central bank-driven credit economy is over and we are in a new era," said Stockman. "It's a huge disaster waiting to happen."

also...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/dazzling-v...10244.html

This dazzling visualization shows how everything in China is shrinking

The Chinese economy is shrinking, and it's happening faster than anyone expected, not even the country's government.

As such, economists and investors around the world are working every day to paint a clear picture of what's going on with the second largest economy in the world. The data visualization below, from a recent Credit Suisse note, should help with that.

Right now President Xi Jinping is guiding China through a delicate transition from a country with an economy based on investment, to one based on domestic purchasing power and consumption.

The thing is, until investment and the cash it brought with it is drying up faster than the Chinese consumer powers up.

As a result, manufacturing, property development, and other key drivers of the economy are all slowing down. Indicators are flashing red.

Check out this diagram from Credit Suisse. As you can see in red, every major economic indicator is down from its 4-year average.

Post: #270

Deepdiver,

You seem very adamant about a significant loss in value on the market in the near future.

I don't pretend to be an expert investor, besides a dollar cost average investment strategy that goes like clockwork.

If you could provide a strategy for a more passive investor for the next year, I'm sure many other members in addition to myself would appreciate it.

Post: #271

AQXP stock manipulation at its finest.

Post: #272

You guys worry to much. If theres a crash, I'll just DRIP my current stocks and be buying at a massive discount + curb my spending further to buy more stocks at a discount.

A 50%+ crash is obscene. Highly improbable. A correction of 5-30% is a more reasonable prediction at some point in the future.

If you are really concerned about a crash buy some Fairfax Financial Holdings. Personally I own about 20 shares of it.

Post: #273

(08-07-2015 01:46 PM)lavidaloca Wrote:  You guys worry to much. If theres a crash, I'll just DRIP my current stocks and be buying at a massive discount + curb my spending further to buy more stocks at a discount.

A 50%+ crash is obscene. Highly improbable. A correction of 5-30% is a more reasonable prediction at some point in the future.

If you are really concerned about a crash buy some Fairfax Financial Holdings. Personally I own about 20 shares of it.

Not worried. I love bear markets; everything goes on sale. Cash is king though right now and nothing falls in a straight line, so I expect some rises in stocks, followed by more dips.

Still, I'm hoping people are right about a 50% dip, but like you, I'd be surprised if it goes lower than 30%. Now industry-specific is different; some industries are already down 80%.

Post: #274

(08-07-2015 02:21 PM)SunW Wrote:  

(08-07-2015 01:46 PM)lavidaloca Wrote:  You guys worry to much. If theres a crash, I'll just DRIP my current stocks and be buying at a massive discount + curb my spending further to buy more stocks at a discount.

A 50%+ crash is obscene. Highly improbable. A correction of 5-30% is a more reasonable prediction at some point in the future.

If you are really concerned about a crash buy some Fairfax Financial Holdings. Personally I own about 20 shares of it.

Not worried. I love bear markets; everything goes on sale. Cash is king though right now and nothing falls in a straight line, so I expect some rises in stocks, followed by more dips.

Still, I'm hoping people are right about a 50% dip, but like you, I'd be surprised if it goes lower than 30%. Now industry-specific is different; some industries are already down 80%.

I was thinking about this in the car. More about just dramatic events that cause markets to panic. People are saying you should have money in gold, real estate, different accounts. I believe diversification is a good thing.

But realistically if something bad happens it is going to be a dramtic move, right? Or is it s slow grind over a couple of years. What I am trying to say is, a dramatic move over a night or a month. Cash is still king, unless you banks gone. So it isn't like inflation kicks in overnight and your money loses half its value.

If it is a 2 year event, I guess I could see money losing value due to inflation etc.

But really, if you want to be well prepared for the next crash of sorts, be in cash. As long as your bank doesn't screw you over.

Is my thinking off?

Post: #275

(08-07-2015 03:11 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  I was thinking about this in the car. More about just dramatic events that cause markets to panic. People are saying you should have money in gold, real estate, different accounts. I believe diversification is a good thing.

But realistically if something bad happens it is going to be a dramtic move, right? Or is it s slow grind over a couple of years. What I am trying to say is, a dramatic move over a night or a month. Cash is still king, unless you banks gone. So it isn't like inflation kicks in overnight and your money loses half its value.

If it is a 2 year event, I guess I could see money losing value due to inflation etc.

But really, if you want to be well prepared for the next crash of sorts, be in cash. As long as your bank doesn't screw you over.

Is my thinking off?

I think you're on the money.

The way I look at it with cash and inflation is that cash provides liquidity to get good deals, and these deals may not even be stocks or real estate or even commodities. Think of an item that never expires but that we're going to need for the next forty years. You see that item at the store one day and it's 90% off and you have plenty of cash to buy a 40 year supply of it without breaking the bank.

If the product goes back up to its normal price, or inflation goes high again, you got a strong return because you saved time without needing to visit the store in the future to buy the product and you saved money because you got it at a deep discount. That's similar to the logic of buying stocks on sale.