Post: #226

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Post: #227

(07-09-2015 10:58 AM)CleanSlate Wrote:  Sorry if this has been covered before, but how do you research and invest in Chinese stocks? I don't think my Fidelity account lets me access those because they're outside of the U.S.-based stock exchanges.

You can invest in Chinese stock ADRs (american depository receipts). Read up on how an ADR works. It can be a bit complicated.

My Schwab account has the option to turn on international trading, however there are added fees for doing so and I don't really trust the Chinese's accounting practices.

Here's a list of Chinese ADRs: http://topforeignstocks.com/foreign-adrs...nese-adrs/

Post: #228

(07-09-2015 01:01 AM)djk100 Wrote:  

(07-08-2015 10:22 PM)tarquin Wrote:  I'm also keeping cash on the sidelines for now.

One thing that has caught my eye, however, is the ACE/Chubb merger. If there is a flashcrash or fast sell-off, I'll probably pick up one or the other.

You could buy ACE but don't buy Chubb. The fact that ACE is going to acquire Chubb is already priced in, so there would be not upside

If I were to buy either one, it would be in the event of a short term market sell-off. In this case, if the $60 + .6 shares of Ace is exceeded, I would purchase Chubb. The only likelihood of this happening is a crazy day in the market where all the stops are hit on the way down, but it is on my radar with everything that is happening in Greece and China right now.

Post: #229

Anyone have any Euro company picks (ETFs or ADRs on NA markets)?

QE is starting there

Post: #230

If there were ever an event to bring down communism in China I think the impending apocalyptic crash might be it. What will China be like when all their wealth has completely disintegrated? Who will they blame?

What will the landscape of Asia be like when China goes into a Great Depression that will be many times worse than that of the US back in 1929. How will this affect their neighboring countries?

Quote:There is plenty more evidence of a bubble:
There are four basic signs of a bubble: prices disconnected from underlying economic fundamentals, high levels of debt for stock purchases, overtrading by retail investors, and exorbitant valuations. The Chinese stock market is at the extreme end on all four metrics, which is rare.
Today China’s 90 million retail investors outnumber the 88 million members of its Communist Party. Two thirds of new investors lack a high school diploma. In rural villages, farmers have set up mini stock exchanges, and some say they spend more time trading than working in the fields.
The signs of overtrading are hard to exaggerate. The total value of China’s stock market is still less than half that of the U.S. market, but the trading volume on many recent days has exceeded that of the rest of the world’s markets combined. Turnover is 10 times the level seen at the peak of the previous China bubble in 2007, and virtually the entire market inventory is changing hands every month.

Quote:China Bans Stock Sales by Major Shareholders for Six Months
July 8, 2015 Bloomberg
China’s securities regulator banned major shareholders, corporate executives and directors from selling stakes in listed companies for six months, the latest effort to stop a $3.5 trillion rout in the nation’s equity market. Investors with stakes exceeding 5 percent must maintain their positions, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement.
So, small investors are allowed to sell, but big ones can’t? Isn’t that going to bankrupt big investors? Don’t big investors support the economy?
The rule is intended to guard capital-market stability amid an “unreasonable plunge” in share prices, the CSRC said.
Is mindless buying reasonable but mindless selling unreasonable? Is one plunge reasonable while another is unreasonable? Who defines these differences? Do these officials really think a ban on selling is going to “guard stability”? Won’t it lead to even greater panic, as margined investors realize they can’t get out?
China has already ordered government-owned institutions to maintain or boost their stock holdings...
Any government institution that owns stock has to hold it or buy more. This plan will shift more losses to the government, by order of the government!
...and the CSRC’s directive expands the ban on sales to non-state companies and potentially foreign investors who own major stakes in mainland businesses.
Even private entities—if they are major stockholders—are barred from selling. Surely that will stem the tide, right? But...
China has unveiled new market-boosting measures almost every night over the past 10 days, steps that have so far failed to revive investor confidence.
The government’s “market-boosting measures” failed for ten straight days, much as the US government’s actions failed throughout 2008. Still, observers will surely credit the latest up days to authorities’ efforts.
Foreign traders have been selling Chinese shares at a record pace this week in part due to concerns over the government’s meddling in markets.
Contrary to intent, the Chinese government’s measures have provided a convenient referent for the panic among foreign holders, who are using the intervention as a reason to sell. Adding to the irony, the new rules are allowing foreigners get out at relatively good prices while forcing the biggest Chinese investors to hold collapsing stocks. How perverse is that?

Quote:Of course: Sell anything to keep from going under. But monetary officials always seem to have more options:
China Securities Finance Corp., which manages the nation’s short selling and margin trading, is seeking at least 500 billion yuan ($80.5 billion) to shore up equities, people familiar with the matter said Wednesday. The central bank said the same day it would provide “ample liquidity” to the market.
This is a replay of 1929 in which banking groups shored up the U.S. stock market. It worked, for a week. Then they were overwhelmed by selling. This time, the bankers are a million times richer and have dictatorial force on their side. Do you think these attributes will help? On the contrary, they are to blame for helping the bubble get historically large in the first place. Now it’s too big even for these mammoth authorities to sustain.

The Elliott Wave Theorist—July 10, 2015
Does not knowing how far down the market really is relieve your stress, or does it fan your panic?
The authorities have “not only failed to stabilize the market, they have actually increased panic levels,” Alex Wong, Hong Kong-based asset-management director at Ample Capital Ltd., which oversees about $129 million, said by phone. “We are reducing exposure, raising cash levels and trying to stay out of the market.”
The Chinese government must be unhappy it left Hong Kong alone in 1999. Free people can still sell, and they are more apt to tell the truth.

Quote:Chinese Police Vow to Arrest “Malicious Short Sellers”
July 8, 2015 ZeroHedge
In what can only be described as total and utter desperation, China’s Public Security Ministry and China’s Securities Regulatory Commission are discussing a plan to take action against “hostile short sellers” [and their] “illegal activities.”
Just one question: Will the police also arrest the brokers who allowed their clients to lever up to extremes with no awareness of risk, encouraged by the government, buying the stocks of companies that make plastic umbrellas at x-thousand P/E multiples? The sad answer, of course, is no. As few may recall, the U.S. Treasury placed a temporary ban on short selling in financial stocks on September 19, 2008. It didn’t stop the bear market. From the high on that day, the S&P dropped another 50% in six months, and financial stocks ultimately fell 85% before finding a bottom.

Post: #231

(07-09-2015 09:05 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  Anyone have any Euro company picks (ETFs or ADRs on NA markets)?

QE is starting there

Vodafone (VOD) its a biggest telco in the Uk and pays a solid dividend.

Post: #232

Anyone dabbling in oil royalty trusts? I have been doing a little reading. Seem interesting.

1) They do have an expiration date
2) Money sent to you is offest against your investment, only after having recovered the investment do you start getting taxed
3) There are some other potential minor tax benefits.

The yields are pretty wild. And I think in most cases they have low operating costs.

http://news.morningstar.com/classroom2/c...page=6&CN=

Anyone chime in?

Thanks.

Post: #233

I was following the Sandridge Oil trusts (PER, SDR and SDT) for a while, but they fell off my radar when oil plummeted. I haven't looked at them since, but they seem to be paying out some crazy dividends. DYODD on these as I haven't looked in quite a while. If I recall correctly, in addition to the sinking oil prices the trusts ended up having a much greater percentage of natural gas instead of oil than expected. I also remember that their dividends are currently inflated due to hedging which will expire at the end of 2015.

That being said, with the situation in Europe still playing out, I think that the Dollar will gain on the Dollar index because of an unstable Euro and commodities will continue to decline in USD. If I were interested, I would likely hold out until later.

Post: #234

Gold's fall has really pushed NEM down low; if this can keep up, and gold falls below $1000 an ounce, it may fall below $15 and be nearing bargain price then.

Post: #235

(07-16-2015 11:24 PM)tarquin Wrote:  I was following the Sandridge Oil trusts (PER, SDR and SDT) for a while, but they fell off my radar when oil plummeted. I haven't looked at them since, but they seem to be paying out some crazy dividends. DYODD on these as I haven't looked in quite a while. If I recall correctly, in addition to the sinking oil prices the trusts ended up having a much greater percentage of natural gas instead of oil than expected. I also remember that their dividends are currently inflated due to hedging which will expire at the end of 2015.

That being said, with the situation in Europe still playing out, I think that the Dollar will gain on the Dollar index because of an unstable Euro and commodities will continue to decline in USD. If I were interested, I would likely hold out until later.

I just did a little research on PER, since I have no knowledge about oil trusts. The comments section in this article at SeekingAlpha are very informative. I will be emailing those to myself for the future.

Post: #236

(07-20-2015 07:20 PM)Onto Wrote:  

(07-16-2015 11:24 PM)tarquin Wrote:  I was following the Sandridge Oil trusts (PER, SDR and SDT) for a while, but they fell off my radar when oil plummeted. I haven't looked at them since, but they seem to be paying out some crazy dividends. DYODD on these as I haven't looked in quite a while. If I recall correctly, in addition to the sinking oil prices the trusts ended up having a much greater percentage of natural gas instead of oil than expected. I also remember that their dividends are currently inflated due to hedging which will expire at the end of 2015.

That being said, with the situation in Europe still playing out, I think that the Dollar will gain on the Dollar index because of an unstable Euro and commodities will continue to decline in USD. If I were interested, I would likely hold out until later.

I just did a little research on PER, since I have no knowledge about oil trusts. The comments section in this article at SeekingAlpha are very informative. I will be emailing those to myself for the future.

Those comments are interesting. I wonder what the dividend will be in August.


In other news, PayPal and Ebay are now separate entities.

Post: #237

(07-13-2015 09:23 PM)djk100 Wrote:  

(07-09-2015 09:05 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  Anyone have any Euro company picks (ETFs or ADRs on NA markets)?

QE is starting there

Vodafone (VOD) its a biggest telco in the Uk and pays a solid dividend.

Hows the growth prospects for it (mostly looking for cap appreciation)

Not too big on dividend due to the way the tax treaty works, ADRs traded in NY I don't believe are exempt from dividend withholding tax in a registered account

Post: #238

Interesting article:

http://thesovereigninvestor.com/investme...rtunities/

Take away is that McD's for the first time in 40 years is closing more locations than it is opening in the USA - so go where the growth is (France EU and China for McD's go figure).

Post: #239

I had bought Chubbs over the summer amid multiple shrieks that its selling at 1.4x book. I sold it after the ACE merger announcement. I don't like empire building and paying up for business so I dumped Chubbs at a nice profit.

I also bought Google at 25x PE about 2 months ago. I backed out the cash and came up w/a valuation closer to 16-17 PE. Considering how much of a beast Google is, I thought it was a fair price to pay. I still think its fair-valued. Odds are it will keep increasing earnings based on the tentacle like approach they are taking towards mobile and other home automation items.

I have Progressive which is a discplined auto-insurance giant that writes pretty consistently at a target of around 96. Its bordering the level that I want to sell off.

I am getting killed in my coal and oil picks though. Cloud peak energy is now selling at 2x FCF or 2.5 OCF with the next 18 months hedged already. I bought it at 4-5x FCF/ 5x OCF. So 50% hit. Oh well, gonna load up more soon. Bought a Canadian oil and metal company called Sherritt. Its competitive advantage is that it has oil lifting costs of around $9/barrel. Its metal division is a POS tho, but the drag on perfomance will stop when their Africa mine is segregated away from the main business. I see it as buying the O/G assets and energy powerplant Cuban assets and getting the crap metal division as a lotto ticket if prices of metals ever go up.

I bought some distributors that follow the Fastenal model of hub and spoke distribution systems- HWCC (Houston Wire and Cable) and MRC (MRC Global- PVF company).

I also picked up a small amount of a few insurance companies that are selling below 50% of book. Some with issues, some just not well known. Bought Genworth at 25% Book and National Western Life Insurance at 50% Book. Genworth has a ton of negative sentiment and I think it'll go back to 60c on the dollar. NWLI should trade closer to 90c on the dollar because it is almost all liquid investments. The discount to book has no real reason tbh.

Post: #240

I've been looking at Genworth, I think it will hit $12 soon enough, especially when considering book value is something crazy like 30$ a share.
People are too worried about their LTC, but I think management is going to continue doing a good job

Might have to be weary about Genworth's exposure to Canadian housing though.

Post: #241

(07-09-2015 09:05 PM)Emancipator Wrote:  Anyone have any Euro company picks (ETFs or ADRs on NA markets)?

QE is starting there

3 months ago I brought the innovative French company Criteo (link here).

Stock price is up 30% since then. Their ADRs trade on the Nasdaq under ticker CRTO.

Post: #242

@Emancipator- I think GNW BV of 30 is a bit high. It should be around 20. So 60-75% of BV is aroud 12-15 buxs. I have serious doubts about their book value, but it shouldn't be at the level it is right now. They just took a huge hit and added additional reserves. That should be a positive going forward not negative.

Post: #243

I was taking a look at MEMP.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MEMP

Memorial Production Partners LP

It is yielding 20%, before you point out the dividend will be cut, please note it is incredibly hedged through 2018.

Check this pdf file. http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/A...Final_.pdf

The only downside is that you get a K-1 and may have to file a return in all states it operates in.

I was just going to do a small buy, but the headache of paperwork for a few shares wasn't worth it for me.

But I think it has good potential due to its hedging.

Also, from what I have read, the hedges were set up with the banks that handled its revolving credit line. So if one of the banks blow up the obligations to each other cancel out.

Post: #244

(01-20-2015 10:40 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  Brought a full position today in Bank of Internet (BOFI) at $79.62, which is disrupting the industry by aiming to be the most innovative branch-less bank in the USA.

It has a very long runway for growth. Its year-over-year loan growth was 63%.

My Bank of Internet (BOFI) position is now up 50% since my purchase on 20 Jan. The S&P 500 has only gone up 4% over the same period.

Their growth is accelerating and they are still relatively "under the radar" with only a $1.8 Billion market cap.

Post: #245

My 2 big wins of the year have been Gilead Sciences and Alimentation Couche-Tard. (17.88 and 21.23%). I made those purchases at the beginning of March. (About $8,900 and $10,000 worth) - 68 and 208 shares.

Couche-Tard is one I'm surprised hasn't been brought up here. If theres one company that has been showing fantastic growth it's Couche-Tard. http://web.tmxmoney.com/quote.php?locale...mbol=ATD.B Take a look at the 5 year growth chart. My dad was lucky enough to put in around 50k several years ago.

Not to be outdone I present you my 2 biggest loser purchases this year.

Cenovus Energy - 100 @ 25.81... current value = 19.10

Husky Energy - 100 @ 28.22 ... current value = 23.88

Thankfully those were my two smallest purchases of the year. Most of my purchases are for 5-15k. I intend to buy and hold forever. The only stock I've ever sold is Fortis after it kicked around at 31-33 dollars for several years. Within a week it was up to 38-40 after I sold it. The only position I intend to move is a position i have in Cameco (CCO) simply because I don't really see much upside to it at this point in time. But I will most likely continue holding it for a year or two to see if Uranium can gain traction again. I have 535 shares with a book value of $10,057.29.

Personally one of the most exciting things I look forward to is buying new equity every couple months.

The one company I'm curious about is Tesla. I have friends who hype it up as a must buy but it seems extremely expensive to me. Anyone got any opinions / positions on Tesla?

Post: #246

I met with my retired Hedge fund Guy for cigars and baseball and markets yesterday - he charted the super cycles and cycles of the market for the past 25 years and he sees a major correction on or about mid September and is focused on S&P futures one month Options since with the slow summer volumes the one week options have not been worth the effort.

He also has been seeing a narrowing triangle pattern showing tightening trading ranges on the S&P Futures through August leading up to mid September super cycle correction of 58%... No I did not misstype - repeat a 58% correction mid September 2015 as he said like clockwork.

So sage advice here would be to keep your powder dry now and not try to catch any falling knives and than back up the truck after this correction er ah um incompetent Obamunists induced CRASH.

Post: #247

(07-31-2015 12:24 PM)lavidaloca Wrote:  The one company I'm curious about is Tesla. I have friends who hype it up as a must buy but it seems extremely expensive to me. Anyone got any opinions / positions on Tesla?

I think there are lower risks as evryone is looking at ratios of gainers to losers and the high SP etc now are very "thin" meaning very few stocks gain but the right ones to keep the indexes up, meanwhile big money is getting out of everything else.

Tesla's current PE ratio is zero and forward PE is 87.

I think they're called "momo" stocks, they're going up because they're going up.

Apple's PE is about 14. I looked up Tesla's PE by asking Siri "What is tesla's price to earning ratio?" I own an iphone, a macbook pro, a ipad retina mini. I don't own a tesla and probably never will, not because it's not nice but because it's freaking expensive and a $3000 used Toyota can do most of the same things. It's a premium item from what I've heard, lovely car.

Zero is bad I think, what happens when everything goes down and people flee to safety?

Post: #248

don't they have to wait until after the election to have the crash?

Post: #249

(07-31-2015 01:08 PM)iknowexactly Wrote:  don't they have to wait until after the election to have the crash?

Bush tried it and it blew up in his face - freeze happened in Spet 2008 and "Obama rode to the rescue" and now 7 years of anti small, medium and large business regulation and taxation compunded by endless Fed QE zero interest rate environment with the China market crash (No more building massive empty cities hoping with 100 year mortgages the average Chinese worker earning $3K a year can by a $145,000 Condo/Apt. ) So no more massive demand for commodities by the 1.3 Billion Chinese and 1.3 Billion Indians - they are happy just to get food and water that does not poison them.

US Retirees and much of EU, Asia and SEA retirees not earning enough interest to exceed real inflation so all losing money...

In all honesty each two term US presidency is bound to see one or two serious recessions... however the collapse in Oil prices will mitigate the upward pressure on inflation - which will be negated by Obama's SJW zealotry for combating CO2 and climate change - though a brilliant Russian female Scientist has discovered ways to map the inncer currents of the sun and forcasts a mini ice age beginning in 2018 that could last 50 to 300 years like the previous one.

Obama is out to destroy US manufacturing, Energy and Middle class prosperity to eradicate any vestiges of the concept of American exceptionalism in the world.

Hillary and Billary took Clinton Global Initiative foundation donations from the Kazahks for various shady dealings...

Will be interesting to she how closely Obama follows in Bill Clinton's footsteps with his own Obama Universal Initiative foundation donations from Americas Adversaries and enemies (Iran, China, Russia, Mexico, India-H1Bdustan, El Chapo????)

Post: #250

Not looking too good for Canada or Russia oil production based economies - nor OPEC - but for the USA and EU Small Biz sector lower energy prices equals higher profits...

Eric Fry, reporting live from the Vancouver Natural Resource Symposium...

In Thursday's edition of The Non-Dollar Report, Karim Rahemtulla advised readers to "position themselves for a commodity rebound." But in that same edition we also mentioned that "you can't just buy any commodity." That's why Karim targeted only the mining sector and suggested buying only "best of breed" companies in that particular sector.

Now comes today's contributor, Sean Brodrick, to suggest betting against a different sector of the commodity markets: oil and gas.

Sean's perspective may not complement Karim's perspective, but neither does it conflict. Crude oil is not gold. Natural gas is not palladium. Natural resource investors must be discriminating.

To that point, when Sean addressed the Sprott-Stansberry Natural Resource Symposium Thursday here in Vancouver, he encouraged the attendees to prepare for a "Golden Tsunami." Using that metaphor, Sean suggested that the gold price might recede a bit more... before surging much higher.

But, net-net, Sean is bullish on gold. Not so on oil. One month ago in a posting titled "A Race to the Bottom in the Oil Price War," Sean predicted oil prices would continue falling. He was dead right.

In that posting, Sean displayed the chart below and wrote, "There are forces afoot that could open a new front in the oil war, and send prices careening lower until someone cries 'Uncle!'"

Despite the fact that the crude oil price has dropped about $20 a barrel since then, Sean remains bearish on the energy sector.

"The bottom line is that there is a surplus of oil in the world," says Sean. As a result of this fact, along with the fact that a couple of key OPEC producers have "opened the taps," Sean predicts a dire future for OPEC... while not forgetting to suggest a way to profit.

OIL CHIC
by Sean Brodrick

I've told you about the bearish forces pushing oil prices lower. Those forces include rising U.S. production, rising Saudi production and a treaty with Iran. The treaty could lift restrictions on Iranian exports, flooding the world with even more oil.

This is all bad news for oil producers.

Now, I'm here to tell you that there is another bearish force rearing its head in the oil markets: OPEC's power is splintering apart.

That problem is surging Iraqi oil production. Take a look at this chart...

Iraq added a whopping 198,600 barrels per day (bpd) of oil production from May to June. It's now pumping more than 4 million bpd, according to what are called "secondary sources" relied on by the "OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report." This production surge is causing fissures in OPEC that will probably lead to its impotence as an economic force... and could even lead to its destruction.

For its own part, Iraq says its production is growing, but at a slower rate. Iraq says it pumped 416,000 bpd less in June than OPEC's "secondary sources" said it produced.

Why the difference? Iraq probably wants to avoid pressure from other OPEC members, like Venezuela, that would like to see quotas tightened to stop the inexorable downward pressure on prices.

But whatever the exact number may be, Iraqi production is ramping up significantly... and this production increase is contributing to lower crude prices.

In fact, JPMorgan analysts recently sent out a note, saying:

It is arguably additional supplies from Iraq that are pressuring world oil prices more than Iran at this juncture. Iraqi production has risen consistently over recent quarters, but surged ahead in 2Q2015 prompting us to conclude that Iraq will likely overtake Saudi Arabia as the biggest contributor to OPEC growth this year.

You would think that OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia might be able to put pressure on Iraq to slow its production growth. Wrong. That's because there is only one member of OPEC that grew its production faster than Iraq from May to June.

And that's Saudi Arabia...

Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased to 10.6 million bpd in June - its highest level since records began. Saudi Arabia's goal is to pump 11 million bpd by the end of summer, or at least the end of this year.

OPEC Is Putting the Squeeze on... Um, OPEC

Since OPEC is pumping flat-out - and since U.S. oil producers have no incentive to slow down - this weight on oil prices remains quite heavy.

For all of OPEC, lower prices are a $200 billion-per-year kick where it hurts. In the wallet, that is. This "open all the taps" oil production strategy is dividing OPEC into winners and losers. And that's a division that could split the oil cartel asunder.

Is there any sign that OPEC might change course anytime soon? Nope. In fact, OPEC officials have repeatedly stated that the entire cartel - and non-OPEC players like Russia - would need to join and bear the burden of a cut, similar to what happened in 1986 and 1998.

Yeah, don't hold your breath. Vladimir Putin's Russia labors under its own sanctions after its land grab in Ukraine, and it needs every petrodollar it can lay its hands on. The sinking Russian ruble has made that country's oil production quite competitive, and so Russia will probably pump as fast as it can for as long as it can.

Two Ways You Can Play This

Well, you're already playing this trend. As a consumer, you profit when global oil prices go lower. But there are other ways you play this trend. I'll tell you about two of them.

ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (NYSE: SCO; Price: $83.45). This ETF aims to track double the inverse of the daily performance of the Bloomberg WTI Crude Oil Subindex. In other words, it's a double bet against crude oil. But remember, an ETF like this is not a "buy and hold" strategy. It's a short-term trading vehicle.

ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (NYSE: DUG; Price: $60.63). This ETF is a double bet against oil and gas stocks. It aims to track twice the inverse of the daily performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index. This is an ETF you'd buy if you thought oil companies were going to have more downside. Sure, Exxon and Conoco are trading at 35-year valuation lows by some metrics. That doesn't mean they can't go lower.

Such trades are not for the faint of heart. But they're great ways to profit from what should be lower oil prices to come... and potentially even the death of OPEC.

All the best,

Sean Brodrick
For The Non-Dollar Report