Post: #1

It's not going to happen, but let's say it did happen...

Would there be a huge shift in power in East Asia?

Or just more money flows into HK?

WIA

Post: #2

If they had their own government completely free of Chinese influence, they would still be rioting over increasing cost of living....

Post: #3

The poorest demographic which earns less than $3,000US a month (in contrast probably pays at least half that in rent) will form the voting majority. What will naturally take place is a small shift towards socialised policy such as higher subsidies for government housing with a view to buy (ala Singapore) and better access to education.

With that being said, Chinese people by nature are so rational when it comes to economic policy that they would probably vote in the same government every time provided the improved the situation of poorer peoples and they didn't 'rock the boat' so to speak regarding Hong Kong's status as a regional hub (though that is very likely to stagnate with the emergence of Shanghai.

Then again, the PRC might bomb the shit out of Hong Kong. Doubt that very much though.

Post: #4

Hong Kong will become increasingly less important. The PRC is investing in Shanghai to be THE center of business in Asia. If you dont think so, go there. 9 years I went to Shanghai and it was terrible. I recently went again and was SHOCKED. Every year the importance of the HK economy on the mainland drops.

Who cares what the Hong Kong people think. 1.5 billion against 15-20 million. Who wins that fight?

Post: #5

(11-03-2014 07:42 AM)ball dont lie Wrote:  Hong Kong will become increasingly less important. The PRC is investing in Shanghai to be THE center of business in Asia. If you dont think so, go there. 9 years I went to Shanghai and it was terrible. I recently went again and was SHOCKED. Every year the importance of the HK economy on the mainland drops.

Who cares what the Hong Kong people think. 1.5 billion against 15-20 million. Who wins that fight?

Yes, but building up Shanghai to be a financial hub will require significant legal reforms and normalization of best practices (legal, accounting, regulatory, etc). I don't know if that will happen - maybe, maybe not. It's certainly not easy. Better governed countries in Asia - Taiwan, Japan, South Korea - have not built their own (and have probably made some semblance of an attempt at it), and have instead deferred to Singapore and Hong Kong.

Post: #6

(11-03-2014 10:59 PM)SHANbangs Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 07:42 AM)ball dont lie Wrote:  Hong Kong will become increasingly less important. The PRC is investing in Shanghai to be THE center of business in Asia. If you dont think so, go there. 9 years I went to Shanghai and it was terrible. I recently went again and was SHOCKED. Every year the importance of the HK economy on the mainland drops.

Who cares what the Hong Kong people think. 1.5 billion against 15-20 million. Who wins that fight?

Yes, but building up Shanghai to be a financial hub will require significant legal reforms and normalization of best practices (legal, accounting, regulatory, etc). I don't know if that will happen - maybe, maybe not. It's certainly not easy. Better governed countries in Asia - Taiwan, Japan, South Korea - have not built their own (and have probably made some semblance of an attempt at it), and have instead deferred to Singapore and Hong Kong.

I agree, to an extent. In the short term, the greatest beneficiary of Hong Kong going full retard would be Singapore (and even somewhat counter-intuitively, London, New York, Sydney, and maybe Dubai) as the capital poured out of Hong Kong. Even before all of this started, Singapore started working hard to position itself as the Asian financial hub. That said, all is not well in the Lion City. There are the beginnings of full retard rumblings there also. I think it's a generational thing. The youth in many Asian countries have been infected by Western mind viruses. They're not terminal cases by any stretch of the imagine, but someone is going to have to come out with a vaccine fairly soon.

Beyond that though, it's hard in a sense to see how Shanghai wouldn't have huge tailwinds in its favour. Sure, they'll have to make some reforms, but when the world's second largest economy (or is it largest now?) is heavily betting on you, that's a huge advantage over relatively minor rivals. Being the regional hegemon does help.

Post: #7

I've been following this some what due to the interference of my own government - the UK. I just hope we stop interfering to be honest.

Post: #8

Soon, feminism and other corrupting western ideologies will take hold of Chinese people and make them suck as much as the West.

Post: #9

(11-05-2014 09:48 AM)Daddy Wrote:  Soon, feminism and other corrupting western ideologies will take hold of Chinese people and make them suck as much as the West.

They already have, but that is not a reason not to have self-governance, individual liberties, and democracy.

This has nothing to do with being 'westernized' and everything to do with the CCP being a cunt. Ask any self-governing, functional group of people in Asia whether they want to be ruled by Beijing and they will tell you to go fuck yourself. The CCP, by the way, is a full on western invention, given that its foundational ideologies of nationalism, marxism, and communism are all western inventions, and that the party's first act was to destroy substantial portions of China's confucian culture.

I mean, have you been to mainland China? Have you not seen the shit that goes down there? Comparatively speakng, more 'westernized' Taiwan functions a lot better.

Statements like these, ironically, belie this forum's subtle western-centric world view. People think everything - both the good and the bad - is about the west, and thus their diagnosis for all the world's ills derive from a very western lens. Sometimes, you have to realize the world is not always about you.

Post: #10

(11-05-2014 09:41 AM)bojangles Wrote:  I've been following this some what due to the interference of my own government - the UK. I just hope we stop interfering to be honest.

Agreed, but i think the west needs to shut the fuck up both ways. That includes not apologizing for Beijing. A while back I remember some British academic who is evidently on Beijing's dick saying, "HKers didn't get many rights under British rule, so that makes Beijing's treatment of Hong Kong okay."

Just the sheer irony and optics of that statement. Oh, you ruled HK for 200 years, so now you get to tell the world to kow tow to Hong Kong's succeeding rulers?

Post: #11

(11-05-2014 09:10 AM)Feisbook Control Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 10:59 PM)SHANbangs Wrote:  

(11-03-2014 07:42 AM)ball dont lie Wrote:  Hong Kong will become increasingly less important. The PRC is investing in Shanghai to be THE center of business in Asia. If you dont think so, go there. 9 years I went to Shanghai and it was terrible. I recently went again and was SHOCKED. Every year the importance of the HK economy on the mainland drops.

Who cares what the Hong Kong people think. 1.5 billion against 15-20 million. Who wins that fight?

Yes, but building up Shanghai to be a financial hub will require significant legal reforms and normalization of best practices (legal, accounting, regulatory, etc). I don't know if that will happen - maybe, maybe not. It's certainly not easy. Better governed countries in Asia - Taiwan, Japan, South Korea - have not built their own (and have probably made some semblance of an attempt at it), and have instead deferred to Singapore and Hong Kong.

I agree, to an extent. In the short term, the greatest beneficiary of Hong Kong going full retard would be Singapore (and even somewhat counter-intuitively, London, New York, Sydney, and maybe Dubai) as the capital poured out of Hong Kong. Even before all of this started, Singapore started working hard to position itself as the Asian financial hub. That said, all is not well in the Lion City. There are the beginnings of full retard rumblings there also. I think it's a generational thing. The youth in many Asian countries have been infected by Western mind viruses. They're not terminal cases by any stretch of the imagine, but someone is going to have to come out with a vaccine fairly soon.

Beyond that though, it's hard in a sense to see how Shanghai wouldn't have huge tailwinds in its favour. Sure, they'll have to make some reforms, but when the world's second largest economy (or is it largest now?) is heavily betting on you, that's a huge advantage over relatively minor rivals. Being the regional hegemon does help.

The easiest reforms came first for the CCP - opening up the economy to foreign investment, creating SEZs, etc. Most of these reforms benefitted CCP cronies at state owned enterprises. Not a hard thing to "stomach" when it's cash flowing into your pockets.

The harder reforms come later - rule of law, clean government, dependable accounting standards. China has made some progress, but it is slow. Remember, we have been hearing about these kinds of harder reforms since before the financial crisis.