Post: #26

I'm interested to see the outcome of the current political hanppenings in HK. If they manage to become a democracy, China will go through rapid political changes. Dollar values will fluctuate a lot.

Post: #27

(10-06-2014 01:57 PM)Jack Of All Trades Wrote:  Isn't a strong dollar good for the oilsands? I thought oil was priced in USD, so they're paying employees, etc. in CAD and selling their oil in USD?

We'll see what happens, the trade advantage you mention does help but at the same time whenever I've seen the USD go up, oil prices go down and its more the price per barrel that has to stay high for the oil sands. If the two stop trending together that would be good.

All you rig pigs in Fort Mac don't need to worry though, there is an inverse relationship between oil+mineral exploration and timber. If the oil sands quiets down there will be plenty of work in northern Saskatchewan and BC either operating equipment or doing mobile mechanic work. Especially since everyone has quit the timber business and moved to alberta, they'll be begging for people to come back...well they already are in Ontario.

Post: #28

(10-06-2014 11:17 AM)Phoenix Wrote:  Do analysts have some good reasons why the USD is rallying?

Because as f*cked up s we are, everyone else is even MORE f*cked up. Has anyone ever been to a country where people couldn't even stand in line?

Post: #29

(10-07-2014 04:25 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  

(10-06-2014 01:57 PM)Jack Of All Trades Wrote:  Isn't a strong dollar good for the oilsands? I thought oil was priced in USD, so they're paying employees, etc. in CAD and selling their oil in USD?

We'll see what happens, the trade advantage you mention does help but at the same time whenever I've seen the USD go up, oil prices go down and its more the price per barrel that has to stay high for the oil sands. If the two stop trending together that would be good.

All you rig pigs in Fort Mac don't need to worry though, there is an inverse relationship between oil+mineral exploration and timber. If the oil sands quiets down there will be plenty of work in northern Saskatchewan and BC either operating equipment or doing mobile mechanic work. Especially since everyone has quit the timber business and moved to alberta, they'll be begging for people to come back...well they already are in Ontario.

When you mentioned that Canadian timber stocks could soon rise, I'm just curious how dependent the timber industry is on the USA housing market, do you think that they're building enough houses state side that stock price would rise?

Post: #30

(10-06-2014 11:36 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  Olibreh stop talking nonsense.

George Soros and his crew have already shorted the dollar, look what he did to the ruble a few years back.

Sadly, as a Canadian we won't escape the downfall.

Peregrine you are spot on.

Soros is successful because he doesnt exactly do what everyone else does. If he did he would just perform around market rate at best. There hasnt been any dramatic changes to cause value shift aside from more people wanting to move to US dollar due to everything else going to shit. Value going up means its in more demand. If they are right or wrong is beyond the point. Soros seems to think they are wrong thats all.

We canadians wont escape the downfall for sure, but some industries might grow, who knows which ones.

Post: #31

(10-07-2014 05:07 PM)scotian Wrote:  

(10-07-2014 04:25 PM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  

(10-06-2014 01:57 PM)Jack Of All Trades Wrote:  Isn't a strong dollar good for the oilsands? I thought oil was priced in USD, so they're paying employees, etc. in CAD and selling their oil in USD?

We'll see what happens, the trade advantage you mention does help but at the same time whenever I've seen the USD go up, oil prices go down and its more the price per barrel that has to stay high for the oil sands. If the two stop trending together that would be good.

All you rig pigs in Fort Mac don't need to worry though, there is an inverse relationship between oil+mineral exploration and timber. If the oil sands quiets down there will be plenty of work in northern Saskatchewan and BC either operating equipment or doing mobile mechanic work. Especially since everyone has quit the timber business and moved to alberta, they'll be begging for people to come back...well they already are in Ontario.

When you mentioned that Canadian timber stocks could soon rise, I'm just curious how dependent the timber industry is on the USA housing market, do you think that they're building enough houses state side that stock price would rise?

Timber stocks have been on a good upswing since last year since based on just housing optimism and the dollar moving under parity. The change in the dollar doesn't mean bigger markets per se, but enough margin that sawmills can start up or add shifts back. This pertains more to Nova Scotia through to Manitoba though, as they don't have any market besides the US.

BC is a different story, they are already shipping alot of wood to Asia which has kept demand up, while supply is tightened after the loss of all of that interior pine due to pine beetle.

Pulp and paper prices still continue to not be so hot, but thats due to high capacity around the world.

Last, on solid wood exports in particular, the prices for 2x4s are high enough in eastern Canada and close in Western Canada so that the NAFTA export tariff's turn off. When that goes away thats an instant 10% on the bottom line for canadian wood, which is crazy when extraction/harvesting is only on a 3% margin to begin with. http://www.international.gc.ca/controls-...x?lang=eng

TL;DR as long as housing construction doesn't crash again things are good, the gains are on margin vs. volume in this case, and BC is in the best position until they liquidate all of the dead pine beetle wood.

Post: #32

Thought it might be helpful to look at some long term charts. These are Futures charts and not forex. One major difference being all futures charts are USD based. So the Canadian $ and Yen charts might be reverse from what a forex chart looks like.

These are weekly charts starting around 2003


EUR/USD







GBP/USD








AUD/USD






JPY/USD






CAD/USD







US Dollar Index

Post: #33

(10-06-2014 07:54 PM)Sherman Wrote:  

(10-06-2014 07:33 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  Sure the dollar is rising, the Fed keeps the printing machine churning out the dollars.

The debt keeps rising and one day the printing machine will stop printing, then what!

United States of China.

Printing more money should actually make the dollar go down, not up, i.e. supply and demand. That's what caught everyone by surprise. No the dollar is not likely to crash anytime soon and is the strongest kid on the block.

actually interest rate differentials are what drive the price of currencies.

Post: #34

For those of you who say to buy gold and silver; will the price of gold and silver drop as the price value of the US dollar rises?