Post: #1

http://www.bostonglobe.com/2014/06/29/is...story.html

"Seizing on the mayhem in Iraq, Israel’s prime minister on Sunday called for the establishment of an independent Kurdistan as part of a broader alliance with moderate forces across the region"

Don't really suppose Israel's support will make an independent Kurdistan any easier to achieve. Although at this point, with ISIS already claiming a huge chunk of Iraq as their own state, I don't know who would even stop Kurds if they declared independence tomorrow. The Iraqi military certainly doesn't seem willing or able to do a thing about it.

Anyone with more detailed knowledge on the situation care to comment?

Post: #2

An independent Kurdistan would definitely be advantageous to Israel as they would be fighting on the same side. Also, it would continue to divide up the Muslim sects, which is good for Israel (keep them fighting each other right?). With that said, these jihadists don't care what Israel has to say, and like you said, the Kurds don't need Israel or anyone to give them permission to start their own nation.

I also find it humorous, okay not humorous, ironic, that Israel is calling for the independence of a Muslim nation. I'm Jewish, I like Israel for the most part, but it is clear that the only reason they are doing this is for political and strategic reasons. Palestine will continue to be denied statehood, while the Kurds get their own nation.

Post: #3

The Turks will never let that happen.

Post: #4

Iraqi Kurdistan is technically a state. By Max Weber's definition, a state is an entity which has a monopoly of the legitimate use of physical force within a given territory. They don't have the Iraqi military there, they have the Peshmerga. And the Peshmerga are going to put up one hell of a fight when ISIS comes knocking on their door.

This constitutes a monopoly over violence, which constitutes a state. Its just not recognized as a sovereign state by the UN, which is more or less a progressive organization removed from reality.

Official Kurdish statehood would serve to hurt ISIS, Iran and Turkey more than anyone else. Israel benefits from a weak Turkey, especially since Erdogan is seen as a role-model for anti-Israeli Muslim moderates. And a weak Iran means a weaker Hezbollah.

Then again, no one takes Israeli rhetoric too seriously except the idiots at AIPAC. Israel wants a hegemony over the entire Middle East and everything becomes simpler when you accept that.

Post: #5

(06-29-2014 10:28 PM)vinman Wrote:  The Turks will never let that happen.

Never say never.

Spokesman Indicates Turkey Ready to Accept Kurdish State in Iraq:

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/turkey/29062014

Post: #6

(06-29-2014 11:19 PM)The Texas Prophet Wrote:  

(06-29-2014 10:28 PM)vinman Wrote:  The Turks will never let that happen.

Never say never.

Spokesman Indicates Turkey Ready to Accept Kurdish State in Iraq:

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/turkey/29062014

Holy shit!
I can't even figure this shit out anymore. Good night.

Post: #7

Oil

Post: #8

The main reason for Turkey recognizing a Kurdish State is Oil. The Kurds have recently begun exporting oil from the Kirkuk region. The Kurds have been under intense criticism from both the Iraqi Government and the United States for the oil exportation. With the ISIS movement kicking the the shit out of the Iraqi Army (sending them running to Baghdad) Kurdistan is in the perfect position for independence. Turkey is seeking a stable, reliable partner that can export oil. Kurdistan can provide that. The Kurdish Pesh Merga are a very tough, reliable fighing force that can hold their own against any ISIS threat (I worked with them). The Turkish government understands the region much better than the United States could ever hope to (although that isn't saying much). The Turks know that a unified Iraq will never work.

I think it's comical that Kerry is still pushing for a unified Iraq. I spent two years in Iraq and the only region that had any unity or hope was Kurdistan. Parts of it were absolutely beautiful and very safe. At times it looked like Southern California. No offense to individuals from other parts of Iraq but the tribal and religious divisions just cause to many issues. Most of the guys that helped defeat the Iraqi Army in Mosul weren't hardcore ISIS, they were oppressed and pissed off Sunnis who were tired of being discriminated against. I can still remember going through Sunni areas in Mosul and receiving the cold, hard stares from military age Sunni males. They were definitely disgruntled Iraqi citizens that wanted to kick some government ass. The western media is trying to say otherwise but it's not like they actually ever tell the truth.

Post: #9

Israelis have been helping the Kurdish government with security and intelligence for years. It was dumb for Netanyahu to openly state support for independence if that's what he really wants.

Post: #10

Turkey will support Kurdistan soon too, the Kurds first export of oil was to Turkey.

Post: #11

I love hearing the opinions of guys who have actually been there.

Might an independent Iraqi Kurdistan help diffuse Kurdish sepratism within Turkey? Ie. might extreme nationalists and PKK types simply leave Turkey and move to Iraqi Kurdistan? I am sure the Turks would love if the Kurds all simply left without having to give up any Turkish territory.

Or would it serve to reanimate calls for independence from Turkish Kurds who want to take Turkish territory and make it part of Kurdistan?

I could see it going either way, what do people who actually know the area think?

Post: #12

I've got an Iraqi Kurdish businessman friend who is quite well up there. They are pretty happy with the land they have and would rather have cordial relations with Turkey as they see them as a potential customer for exports beyond oil. Not sure about the mainstream feelings in Iraqi Kurdistan itself though

Post: #13

I thought one of the issues with Kurds and Turks is that the Kurds didn't have their own homeland, and were treated badly in Turkey. If they form their own country that can be prosperous, wouldn't tensions decrease?

Iraq is also an artificial construct of the British and French post-WWI after the fall of the Ottoman empire. Does the US foreign policy establishment actually know anything about history? I mean, we talk about the civil war and its impact today, but much more recent events are seemingly ignored or denied importance when they happen in other countries.

Post: #14

Why would Turks never let that happen? If Kurdistan becomes an official independent state, then all those troublemakers at its southern border will slowly move towards "home". If there is already a state that they want nearby, there is no more point in fighting for it in Turkey, right?

Post: #15

Turkey pulls out the Divide and Conquer playbook written by the British.

British offered Ireland 5/6ths territorial independence or nothing.

Turkey now offering Kurdistan in Iraq - take a big slice of territory Kurds, you won't get the whole pie.

Post: #16

There is no ''Turkey'' in that matter, there is only the current Turkish Government, which is practically a one man government, Erdogan. He isn't concerned about the interests of Turkey as a united country, his only concern is gaining more political influence in his lifetime. So We don't have a consistent set of politics about Kurdistan. I can only comment on our current policy and that is Erdogan is preparing to turn East Turkey into a self-governing semi-independent Kurdistan province. He already cut the deal with the Kurdish leaders, but it will take time because the majority of Turks is against such a division, even Erdogan's supporters.

As for ''Turkey letting an independent Kurdistan happen'', we don't have the guts or means to not let anything happen. Turkey is too busy with its polarization between the conservatives and the democrats, and right now Erdogan is only focused on making himself president and preparing a new constitution to bring Presidency to Turkey, like U.S or Russia. He will cut any deal with the Kurds that is necessary to make that happen. He needs the Kurdish votes, so he will turn blind to everything.

Post: #17

People might not know it but behind the doors Israel and Turkey are best allies. During the Israeli-Turkish crises until now trade has increased immensely.

Kurdish independence won't have much benefit for Israeli directly. Actually brake up of the region is not beneficial for Israel. The result of brake of central government leads to terrorist groups rising to power. Israel can attack a country but can't attack a terrorist group that easy. When ISIS is done with Iraq, to whom will they turn their focus on? It will be Israel.

Iraq will be divided in
-Sunni
-Shia
-Kurd

Kurds will be sandwiched between the Sunni Arabs, Shia and Turkey. So in other words Kurdish Iraq will be totally dependent on Turkey. Also their gas/electricty is coming from Turkey and they are selling their oil and gas to Turkey.

The biggest looser of what is going on in Syria and Iraq is Iran since they are loosing Assad (Iranian puppet) and in Iraq, Malaki (Iranian puppet) is loosing Northern Iraq.

Post: #18

The US government is against splitting up Iraq as supporting that end would be admitting failure.

If they had understood the factions in the country from the start, and allowed them to set up independent states, things would likely be much calmer there.

Perhaps our own experience with civil war and the effort expended to hold the country together clouds judgement in Washington. The issues that instigated our own civil war are nothing like those that spark most of these conflicts around the globe.

Post: #19

Well effectively Iraq no longer exists I mean...

Isis controls part of it Kurdistan is basically it's own country now.

Wonder how long this can last. If there is a significant confrontation between what remains of Iraq's military and Isis would that firm up the death of Iraq and lead Kurdistan towards independence and subsequent border skirmishes with ISIS?

Post: #20

Israel needs all the friends it can get -- or create -- in the ME.

Smart Jews should move away from that place, descending into a rogue, isolated state. I'd recommend them to go to the US or Germany.

You only live once, get out while you can to make a better life elsewhere.

Post: #21

(07-25-2014 01:02 PM)Maciano Wrote:  Israel needs all the friends it can get -- or create -- in the ME.

Smart Jews should move away from that place, descending into a rogue, isolated state. I'd recommend them to go to the US or Germany.

You only live once, get out while you can to make a better life elsewhere.

Israeli Jews... well some of them agree with that sentiment.

The economic situation in Israel is not easy. Prices are higher than New York it seems, imported goods are taxed at 100%, such as cars, computers, phones. Yet salaries are not nearly at the level to sustain that for the average person. For an average person with a degree, unless you're in a really high-paying industry, life is tough.

Many have recent European heritage and thus can get/have European passports. I met many who were planning to move to Europe for a better economic situation.

But of course, many Israelis are completely dedicated to their state in a very middle-eastern way. Many of them are not running anywhere. The feelings of nationalism there can be very powerful.