Post: #1

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/06/16/s...iness&_r=0

Interesting case, seems like if Argentina might default again on bond payments. Worst case scenario they get shut out of the US financial market completely. Probably make the black market price of the dollar shoot up.

Quote:“Since Argentina lacks the financial resources to pay the holdouts in full (what would amount to $15 billion) while also servicing its restructured debt to 92 percent of bondholders,” the country’s lawyers wrote, “Argentina will have to face, objectively, a serious and imminent risk of default

Might be a good travel arbitrage opportunity in the near future.

Dolar Blue is over $12 again.

Post: #2

Argentina is on my radar in the near future. Apartments on airbnb in Buenos Aires are already much cheaper than other major South American cities.

Post: #3

It's possible.

Remember that they also have vy high inflation.

Post: #4

Right now, you can get around of 12 pesos per dollar in the black market. With this new development, the dollar black rate could go higher.

Post: #5

Mekorig how is that affecting real estate? I have always thought it would be cool to own an apt there. Just knowing I probably could never sell it easily. No mortgages need to bring cash it is crazy. I saw a House Hunters International episode where the guy had to tape cash to his body.

Post: #6

Good topic, ill be following this as I have Argentina on my radar as well. What does a decent appartment in BA in a nice area go for these days for a months stay? AirBNB or others.

Post: #7

(06-18-2014 11:14 AM)samsamsam Wrote:  Mekorig how is that affecting real estate? I have always thought it would be cool to own an apt there. Just knowing I probably could never sell it easily. No mortgages need to bring cash it is crazy. I saw a House Hunters International episode where the guy had to tape cash to his body.

B/c of controls on currency exchange (I think), the local real estate market has been mostly frozen. At the moment there are not great deals like there were in the past. And yes, transactions are cash.

Post: #8

From a recent article:

Argentina’s real estate market has slowed recently, according to Sue Rasmussen, a sales agent for ReMax Mas in Buenos Aires, citing an 18.6 percent drop in the number of transactions in 2013. Ms. Rasmussen attributes the downturn to political unrest and to the currency fluctuations that continue to plague the Argentine economy. Because the Argentine peso is unstable, real estate has historically been priced in dollars.

But Micah Miller, an American lawyer with Wiener Soto Caparros in Buenos Aires, said that in 2011 the government drastically tightened restrictions for Argentines who want to convert pesos into dollars. This has made it much harder for Argentines to buy property, because most sellers prefer to find a buyer who can make the purchase in dollars. These new exchange restrictions have contributed significantly to a slowing real estate market, Mr. Miller said.

Sellers have been unwilling to lower prices, so prices have not declined significantly. But there is some indication that sellers are getting more flexible. “By some accounts, many sellers have closed at 10 to 15 percent discounts off the list price,” Mr. Miller said.

Post: #9

To all of those out there: dont think my country will be much cheaper due this ruling. And we are not dead yet.
if you want to visit do it because you want to enjoy a good people and great country and not because you think you can benefit. I dont think there is any benefit for you here, otherwise why you didnt come here in the first place?
it s all words thrown to the air.

Cheers

Post: #10

Your country will be more cheap for foreign travelers because of this. Why are you taking personal offense to people on this forum discussing it?

Whats wrong with benefiting?

Actually, why don't you mind your own business and let grown men make their own decisions for their own reasons.

Post: #11

(06-18-2014 04:10 PM)TravellerJay Wrote:  To all of those out there: dont think my country will be much cheaper due this ruling. And we are not dead yet.
if you want to visit do it because you want to enjoy a good people and great country and not because you think you can benefit. I dont think there is any benefit for you here, otherwise why you didnt come here in the first place?
it s all words thrown to the air.

Cheers

Jay, calmate loco. All travelers look for cheaper and good places to visit, and now Argentina is (and will be) a cheap place tovisit, thanks to the economic policies of Queen Kristi. Also, the people of this forum look to improve thenselfs in other ways, economically is one of them, and want to know if with the current (and coming) devaluation it will be a good move to invest in propierties in the country.

Post: #12

Re: BA Apt rentals/2014

Less expensive than an western intl. city but not exceedingly cheap.
Even with the exchange rate.

This is b/c short term rentals (monthly) are priced in dollars on average go for 1k/mo. for a studio in a decent area. For a more desirable area and better apt., then more. If you go through a rental service or agent, then you will also have to pay fees and a commission. These rentals are aimed at tourists and priced accordingly.

Finally, if your rental is priced in pesos, the owner is going to price it at or close to, the "Blue" rate.

It is very difficult to get around any of this because to rent as a local you would need a "guarantee" among other things.

Post: #13

The economic readjustment in Ukraine going on now is also good for travelers. I was talking to a friend who objected when I said economic troubles make it easier to bed women. I'm not saying I want to celebrate or encourage economic calamities, but I sure as hell will take advantage of them.

Post: #14

I was just in BsAs in late March and things are definitely shaky, but given that all real estate is priced in US dollars (illegally, but overlooked by the gov't according to my Argie friend) it is fairly well insulated from price fluctuations. I don't think anyone knows what will happen -- some of us hope to benefit by swooping in with cash and buying a place. It's far though. From SFO, that's a 17 hour flight. From DCA it's a 12 hour flight. It's not exactly a weekend getaway destination given it's location.

Also, Argentines are a smart bunch. So you can't hold US Dollars and worried about the peso becoming worthless.. what do you do? Buy a BMW or Mercedes and park it in your garage as a store of value. It's like having money under your mattress instead of the bank!

If America was faced with a crisis the way Argentina has every 10 years for the last 30 years, I seriously doubt the average American would know how to survive.

Post: #15

Bump. Only hours left before an Argentina default. Dolar Blue slightly rising back up to 13. Very curious to see how this plays out.

Post: #16

There is no default if is not declared by country.
Check any finance TV like Bloomberg. There will be a settlement and no technical default.
if you pay you are not a debtor. If BONY held payment and court appeals are more than just threats and New York cannot allow to lose their financial status for debt restructuring then all will be good.

Post: #17

(07-30-2014 03:40 PM)TravellerJay Wrote:  There is no default if is not declared by country.
Check any finance TV like Bloomberg. There will be a settlement and no technical default.
if you pay you are not a debtor. If BONY held payment and court appeals are more than just threats and New York cannot allow to lose their financial status for debt restructuring then all will be good.

You are debtor until you pay it off.

Paying on time = good terms.
Paying late = default
Not paying = default

default = not paying on the agreed terms.

Post: #18

Cattle Rustler, Judge Griesa admitted Argentina paid the Discount bonds for the restructured debt, money BONY couldnt reject. If no deposit, then there would be a debtor situation.

if you mean debtor because some vulture predator fund sued Argentina defying Champerty in US that declared that purchasing defaulted bonds with the sole purpose of litigation wouldnt pass a primary court appeal you are right and wrong at the same time.
When NML and Singer appealed to higher courts then they won against Peru. which was considered a grave mistake on US judiciary history because they recognized that Champerty was violated but still found the way to screw Peru.
Since then these vultures buy cheap defaulted bonds, so they are not creditors because they never actually lend money to any country, they just picked up the remains of waste and litigate what they cannot win in restructured debts sessions.
They want the 100% of what was purchased for pennies.
Now, that is not being a debtor, that is being a vulture and since we ve been paying, you cannot hardly call us Debtors, unless you are watching too much Fox news.

Post: #19

(06-19-2014 09:59 AM)The_CEO Wrote:  It is very difficult to get around any of this because to rent as a local you would need a "guarantee" among other things.

An Argentinian friend of mine in BA just offered to rent me his apt. from Sept to Dec.

Seriously thinking of taking him up on it.

Post: #20

CAVEAT EMPTOR. One girl who I talk with every day and banged several times back in April has been living in Bs As. She just bought her ticket back.

The stories I hear from her and some others I know over there are pretty shocking. Street crime is at an all time high in the whole country. They are also having power problems.

It may or may not be worth it to go there, but be informed and make a calculated decision taking all factors into account... and if you go bring your street pass!!

Post: #21

Sure it is cheap,don't you remember they were taught how do eat with 6 pesos?

Post: #22

(07-30-2014 06:38 PM)Rubio93 Wrote:  The stories I hear from her and some others I know over there are pretty shocking. Street crime is at an all time high in the whole country. They are also having power problems.

It may or may not be worth it to go there, but be informed and make a calculated decision taking all factors into account... and if you go bring your street pass!!

This is what I'm worried about. While a shitty economy can present a nice geographic arbitrage opportunity, no power means no income if you're working online. And the one thing that really turns me off on Argentina and Latin America as a whole is the violent street crime. I feel you're much more likely to get knifed or shot there than in Europe or Asia.

Post: #23

Crime is higher, yeah, but it is not like you will knifed anywhere. You have to learn how to move in the city, jus like in Brazil. Dont hang around bad places, and do not flash your jewelry/iphone. Simple as that.

Post: #24

(07-30-2014 08:45 PM)Exiled Princeling Wrote:  

(07-30-2014 06:38 PM)Rubio93 Wrote:  The stories I hear from her and some others I know over there are pretty shocking. Street crime is at an all time high in the whole country. They are also having power problems.

It may or may not be worth it to go there, but be informed and make a calculated decision taking all factors into account... and if you go bring your street pass!!

This is what I'm worried about. While a shitty economy can present a nice geographic arbitrage opportunity, no power means no income if you're working online. And the one thing that really turns me off on Argentina and Latin America as a whole is the violent street crime. I feel you're much more likely to get knifed or shot there than in Europe or Asia.

What? You think getting group jumped by pinoys or thais is better than getting jumped by one or two latin americans?

I'll rather fight one or two than the whole tribe.

Post: #25

Like I said, YMMV. I'd still go if I didn't think the Porteños are by and large intolerable people, or if I got paid good $ to do some concerts there. But I'm not everybody. I've successfully fought muggers off several times before already.

Like I said, if you have your street pass you're gonna need it in present-day Argentina.